tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg December 8, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EST
francine: brussels or bust. boris johnson to -- travel to stop the deal. the u.k.ollout, vaccinates its first citizens and what it calls the biggest immunization campaign in history. stocks and u.s. futures dip on a report pfizer won't get more doses until at least june. welcome to bloomberg surveillance. in the markets on the back of what we heard of a possible new deal -- a possible no deal with brexit.
certainly not if you were hoping to get a deal. pandas had quite a bit of an impact. it will either travel today or tomorrow to brussels, unclear at the moment. he is speaking to people on the front line. this is just a couple of hours before we saw the first person over 90 years old to receive the vaccine shot. that's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. launched what it is calling its biggest immunization campaign and its history. covid vaccines have started across the country with front-line staff and people over 80 at the front of the queue. tens of thousands are expected to get the vaccine from pfizer and biontech in the next coming days. they are the first western nation to begin vaccination.
bloomberg sources say joe biden plans to nominate retired army general austin as defense secretary. that would make him the first black american to lead the pentagon. he was previously head of u.s. troops in the middle east from 2013 to 2016. the choice comes as biden is under pressure to deliver on his pride of the most diverse cabinet in u.s. history. eu officials are warning hungry --poland they will lift their veto only rescue plan or risk losing billions of euros. if not the block will turn to plan b which includes excluding the two holdouts. japan's new prime minister has unveiled a new stimulus package worth over $700 billion per he says the plan includes medical facilities and homes for the
elderly as well as employment and corporate cash growth. economy surged back in the third quarter but a surge in infections in recent weeks is likely to call consumer spending. consumer spending. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. the british prime minister boris johnson is said to head to brussels for a face-to-face meeting with the european commission president. this is a growing feel -- fear brexit talks will fail. most concluded a deal remains far off. let's get to our brexit editor. what are you hearing on the ground? you have a number of reporters trying to speak to people. if you don't -- if they don't get close to a deal by tomorrow evening does that mean no deal? >> i think what we've got at the
is the negotiation technical negotiations have gone as far as they can. to political leaders to step in and broker a compromise, .ut also it's very clear they still have a little bit more time by the end of the year. the eu summit begins on thursday, it's quite clear eu leaders want to get brexit off the table by then. they have other battles to deal with. and they want to get something done by it. always very dangerous. neither side wants the blame for walking away from negotiations. >> is december 31 a real deadline?
we hear from a number of people saying they could extend. there doesn't seem at this point to be any appetite whatsoever from the u.k. side. >> no. theit would take the -- british would have to agree to do it. saying they don't want to go over that deadline. francine: we will speak to ed a number of times throughout the day to help understand what's happening. is global macro economist at fidelity international. always great to speak to you. how do you deal with brexit right now? how much of uncertainty is it that we could look at a no deal brexit and we are less than a month away from that firm deadline of december 31? >> of course it is worrying.
, it isyou just said dangerous to try to get there. i do think there is some incentive for the british side to reach a deal because the u.k. prospects facing this q4 orious contraction in q1 of next year. have asame time, if you knowledge of brexit on top of -- the risksisks are significant to the downside and it's unclear what the recovery will be called for in this environment. predict andhard to we will just have to wait and see.
when you look at some of the things out there, do u.k. assets look cheap as pound of falls? anna: for the time being we remain neutral. it's just so difficult to navigate political risks. if we managed to pass this obstacle. of course the vaccination program has already started as itthis morning, but also being so services based, was the real loser during the covid crisis this year. as social distancing restrictions hopefully get lifted, the services will really
benefit. be a time to will assets, given how unloved they have been through the year. there is an interview going on as we speak and you can see it live on television. this is prime minister boris london.in the city of this is also the hospital where he himself was treated for covid five or six months ago. the conversation started on vaccines saying we can't afford to relax now with the pandemic. but right at the end he also took a couple of questions on brexit and said there could come a moment where a deal won't be possible. sayingme minister also it's something we need to look at. prime minister boris johnson they're talking at the hospital.
with headlines like that, we were talking about u.k. assets. are we underestimating the impact it has on european assets as well? face i think europe would a risk as well of potential economic impact and there is also transmission via the financial links. europe is well-positioned. the vaccination program to start also at some point early in 21, compromise will be in the recovery fund. i think europe is much better positioned risks.
vaccine saying it something we need to keep an eye on in the vaccine will take weeks and months, not days. today was the first time someone took a vaccine shot. the prime minister also talking about brexit. he said leaving the eu is a big opportunity for the u.k., there are limits, he says, on how far the government will go on these talks and at the moment the trade deal is looking difficult. a tricky moment to negotiations is how he quantified it. this is what we've been hearing on both sides. it seems we are at the 11th hour, we also understand the prime minister will travel to brussels to talk to the commission president. let's get to another top story. 90-year-old margaret came the first person in the world to receive the pfizer biontech vaccine outside of trial
conditions. us is anna from fidelity international. this is very encouraging news. if we can get back to normal. the vaccine also has huge questions like how many people will want to get vaccinated, whether you can still transmit. what does it mean for the economy? are we expecting you to be a bit quicker than it actually could be in practice? anna: i think you are right. is nowsensus out there with all the vaccines getting approved, we will be back to normal very quickly in 21. i do think there are serious risks. one related to the vaccine's distribution. if you look at people's attitudes to vaccines, there is
a lot of skepticism within developed markets and in europe especially. notmerging markets, it is -- but there are also issues about production and distribution. so all of this needs to go really right for the global upswing to take place in 21. i think there are other risks, thentially market testing central bank's credibility. it's becoming more uncertain whether we will have more fiscal stimulus. of course thele vaccine is good news, there are so many risks that we should not be complacent about the outlook. francine: do you worry the markets got a bit ahead of
themselves? you point to some of the downward trends, do you worry about inflation picking up, monetary policy mistakes? what do you worry about at this juncture for the economy? , perhapsthis juncture a couple of risks. , we doetary policy side think once growth picks up and inflation accelerates. we don't think we will see a sustainable pickup and inflation to target. it's possible especially next year, we see a couple of debate affects. -- we see a couple of effects. this is going to be a real test of credibility for central bankers who have committed to keeping monetary policy -- for long periods of time.
keeping real rates in the negative territory. potentially we will see some kind of -- just to test credibility. it also depends on the fiscal policy side. this is becoming more difficult the support to bridge that gap for now. risknk this is a serious to growth. also if we think about geopolitics, the markets pricing . very benign outcome with biden being quite relaxed about china.
i think there are risks particularly thinking about the of what the eu might be doing and the u.s. might be joining. francine: i was going to ask you, if you look at the take on the emerging markets, is 2021 the year of the emerging market because they will have relief in certain parts of the world thanks to the agreement with china or does it spell trouble ahead? >> it could be the year for emerging markets, as we know there is so much linked into the global cycle and global trade, cyclical sectors will benefit as growth picks up after all the social distancing restrictions are lifted hopefully in the second half of next year. emerging markets have been particularly vulnerable, they will benefit from this global
upswing. i do think the elevated debt present at prevent -- risk. within certain emerging markets, but also geopolitics is unlikely to be as benign as it's currently expected. so i do think there are risks. the baseline scenario is that emerging markets should overall perform quite well next year. francine: thank you so much. up, doordash and airbnb are ready to start trading. we have the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
even more. here with the details is dani burger. bounce in got this markets, we saw the riskier sort of stocks outperform. that means value and companies that have recently lifted -- lifted. -- listed. companies that went public more than -- this year or so, more than doubling on the s&p rally. if you were a company in holding off going public may be around the turmoil that was this spring, now looks like a great time to do so. because you can get a much more rich valuation. that is absolutely what we have been seeing. airbus is a great example. when you look at the evaluations airbus has achieved in its first fundraising round, got $26 billion. looking forward, what airbus has gotten when it's announced to be elicited it's been about $42
billion -- announced to be listed, it'so be been about $42 billion. francine: what about dealmaking more broadly? has the equity rally had a reaction? >> we have seen this flurry of takeover attempts from different companies and that's lead to more or less an awkward situation because of the rally. we look at the months leading up to that pfizer number but really got markets going. about $170 billion worth of companies were announced as takeover targets. what happens when we do get that big rally, all of a sudden these companies are trading at much more rich valuations than their initial offer. some of these companies are going over to the desk going over and saying we need more money in order to accept -- going over and saying we need more money in order to accept your deal.
companies are trading more richly to the offer. this bottom one is the a u.k. retirement company. they told them they needed more money but that deal was recently changed. francine: our dani burger with some of the deals in the making and money surrounding it. coming up, breaking the brexit deadlock. to brusselsn heads for talks on a trade deal. we will be live at the belgian capital, unclear when boris will head to brussels. this is bloomberg. ♪
u.k. has launched what it is calling the biggest immunization campaign in its history. covid vaccines have started across the country with front-line staff and people over 80 at the front of the queue. tens of thousands are expected to get the vaccine from pfizer beyond tests in the coming days. implementing restrictive social distancing measure since the beginning of the pandemic, banning in persian dining at restaurants from 6:00 p.m. and closing jim's and beauties -- closing gyms and beauty salons. from the various cases have hit the highest daily level since august. carrie lam says there is no choice but to tighten the restrictions. over in the u.s., republicans and democrats are struggling to reach a deal on a new spending package. they plan to postpone a friday night deadline for the bill, avoiding a government shutdown. the deadlock is not only over
pandemic aid but also the general budget to fund the government into next year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: i'm looking at my bloomberg terminal because we are getting breaking out of south africa. this is gdp and you can see annualized quarter on quarter better than expected, 66 point 1%. the last quarter was so bad that the right number to look at is year on year. so you can see year on year it is -6%. so you can see south africa exited its technical procession, to september.h gross domestic product figures released today hardly present a glowing report, even though it is better than expected. you can see the economy is still stringing -- still shrinking
some 6%. bit.wer is quite a story, 15african rand per dollar. crisis talks will be held in brussels. boris johnson making an 11th hour bid to break a deadlock on trade negotiations. he will meet with ursula von der leyen to discuss critical issues, a level playing field, fisheries, over which significant differences still remain. maria tadeo joins us from brussels. meeting high-stakes happening tomorrow between the head of the european commission and prime minister boris johnson, we are joined by phillippe lamberts. if i get this correctly, sir, you were also present yesterday at a rethink that michel barnier gave to you. ofyou look at the date
december 8, how worried should we be that we don't have a deal in place yet? >> it is obvious there are key issues, and the option become the most likely. of course, the prime minister will travel to brussels, but there are some circles that you cannot square. you cannot have market access without a degree of regulatory alignment so market that you want to serve and therefore a no go for the united kingdom, it is going to be a no go for us as well. that unilateral action of the british government, the government of boris johnson itself, will sign the agreement of a year ago, and with the option of a not abiding by it it is not exactly
a confidence building measure. there is zero trust in whatever promise will be made by the british prime minister. we need promises to be backed up by legality, and that should include a governance for the possibility of the union. union-- for the european to take unilateral action. if it is acceptable -- if this is unacceptable to boris johnson, there will be no deal. weia: in terms of the time, are looking for december 8, waiting for a meeting tomorrow, waiting for european leaders to get the final goal. ultimately this will need extra time. maria philippe: if he wanted to do things properly, there should have been legal text at the end of october.
it becomes very narrow. the european parliament the next is the 28th of december, but we don't have a legal text yet. considering the european parliament as a rubberstamping body, then we will need time. if there is a deal, some extra time will be needed to ratify it. to theso let us go back extra time. what does it mean by that? does that mean you will vote in january? will be aindeed, it vote in january, but this is not the main question. the main question is whether or not there will be a deal. less i believe there will be one. right, but the timing is key because the brits do say they would rather not go for an extension, so that will be crucial here. i do wonder tomorrow, when boris
johnson has that meeting in brussels, what can ursula von der leyen offer, though? philippe: i'm afraid she cannot offer something to the tune of have your cake and eat it. that is what boris johnson promised time and again. this is not an offer. maria: right, and if you were to give this a percentage, given what we know, given that european leaders are -- how likely is it for this deal to come through? so mype: less than even, money is now on no deal. i know that it was the prime minister who wanted to make a last-ditch attempt. but then again, that was already the scenario on saturday. so the negotiators were given 48 hours more. and after that nothing moved an
inch. saying, we are protecting the vital interest of the european union. --much as the united kingdom with something of its vital interest, it has to expect that the european union will do likewise. so this is not playing hardball, it is just cause for negotiation. maria: you made that point very clear for the european union, protecting the single market. philippe lamberts, thank you for your time. francine? michel barnier calling, so he had to go and take that. coming up, serving the public during the pandemic. we will speak to will shu, the chief officer of deliveroo. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪
>> is amazing to see the vaccine, amazing to see this, tremendous. we cannot afford to relax now. francine: the u.k. prime minister there, mask up, speaking earlier this hour as the vaccine rollout begins. vaccine has had a devastating effect on businesses, so it is make or break and the u.k. demand an increased in for food deliveries, resulting in an unexpected boost.
there are grocery orders from food retailers. we are delighted -- joining us is will shu. thank you for coming on bloomberg this morning. when you look at the amount of deliveries that you are doing, it is pretty incredible. pandemic has been really good to you and your company. what happens once the vaccine gets rolled out? how can you hang onto those precious customers? will: the first thing i would say, this shift from off-line to online is happening for over a decade. the interesting thing about of 21less than one out meals a week is transacted online, so we still think we are still at the beginning of this off-line-online transition. our belief is that covid has accelerated that trend come up with the trend has always been moving in that direction. deliveroowhat does look like in three or four years?
kitchens, the ones that are deliveroo managed, you have the grocers that are delivering, which was extremely useful in lockdown. 18 months from now, what is the percentage? where? will: we started this business and we operated and we operated in a few london neighborhoods come in -- working with independent restaurants and we have been transitioning into working with restaurant chains and with grocers, and we are really thinking about the future of food. we are the world leader in delivery only kitchens. we offer a service where we deliver on behalf of the restaurant even if you order through the restaurant website or app. we are always thinking about the future innovations, so 18 months from now, i think a lot of these things you talked about will become bigger and bigger parts of our business. francine: are there markets you want to exit?
that youere markets want to get invested in? will: i think there are so many opportunities in this space. super focusedso on is the fact that less than one out of 21 meals per week is i just online. coverage ofaphic the markets that we are in. those are tremendously exciting for us. francine: there has been a pretty good expansion for just eat takeaway. will: we are focused every single day on the best proposition for riders, restaurants, and consumers. we welcome competition because at the end of the day the three sides of the marketplace will get a better deal, so we always welcome competition, but if -- at the end of the day, we are focused on what we are doing. good time tonow a
ipo? : we are obsessed with the three sides of our market place and how can we build innovation with those three sides. i'm not a financial markets expert. you ipo or flow come you can get so much more cash that you can reinvest. i'm sure you have people looking at that. what is your ideal? ambitiousre an company and there are options available, but like i said, what i care about every single day is those three sides of the marketplace. we will see what the future brings. what is thell shu, most difficult thing about how you manage this? you have the drivers come you have to make sure you have enough drivers at the right time, the right place. you have to almost preempt what kind of trends consumers will do. it is a pretty complex operation. what are you most focused on right now? will: i think that is a great
question. the key to delivery success is how do you balance the three sides of the market, both in real-time, over a medium time period in over a long time period. it comes down to assessing and putting our selves down in the marketplace. so we can build products that maybe they don't think is important today, and ultimately that is how we have gotten to where we are today, that obsession. francine: how much bigger do you think the delivery business will be in general? post-covid come you said you are expecting the business to grow, but does it double in size? can it be more than double? 21l: like i said, less than -- less than one out of 21 meals in the world globally are transacted online today. if you look at travel and marketing, that number like 50%. i think we are just getting started. even though we have accomplished a lot in the last eight years. but we are just getting started and we are excited about the future.
francine: i know you don't want to talk about an ipo, but are you up for sale? will we see more consolidation in this industry, and this space? isl: like i said, our focus on the three sides of our marketplace, and ultimately that is what propelled us where we are today. we are a very ambitious company and we will see what happens in the future. francine: do you think the u.k. government has done enough to support startups in the u.k.? that this is a great place to start a business. we have been here about eight years, and we hope that that continues into the future as well. you soe: will shu, thank much. don't be a stranger, especially when you have news. the chief executive of deliveroo joining us. coming up later today, we will speak with the russian central bank governor. we will talk about google, and maybe she will talk about the vaccine.
francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. he chairman of newman says welcomes competition from asia. he is trying to renew the 170-year-old company. of dramatic20 years change because of digital, the big companies that were really disrupted are the newcomers, the companies who didn't know before. just look at the most valuable companies today, and probably five out of 10 -- we didn't know 10 years ago. the big challenge that i ask myself is how can we get the old companies, the ones that have more than 100 years of experience, to become renewed, reinvented? that has very much been the target at siemens. siemens is today three
companies. it was intended for and businesses, and now it is three companies, individual companies. going after the transformation of health care, which is really a move from a generic health care to individualized health care and prevention. you had siemens energy, which was out here in september, which is the energy company which is managing the transition of energy systems from -- to renewable energy. and then we have siemens, the combination of hardware and software to disrupt manufacturing and urban living and also mobility. and you can see how these three challenges are completely different, and therefore we will focus ishat having more important than being big,
because if you are just a conglomerate, you may end up in a situation where you are too slow, you have scale but no speed. with this approach, we have speed, and with that speed transition --the the transformation of the industry rather than be a victim of that transformation. francine: you have done well in asia. do you worry about increased asian and chinese competition in this space? i actually welcome the development in asia. to a large extent i think it will become the biggest market in the world, certainly from a from aion review -- population point of view, from a consumer market, asia has moved in the last several years. we assume this will continue as labor costs define where manufacturing has happened. we see a reversal of that trend right now, and markets are
becoming truly global. than 116s has more in china.xperience but being mass production , we are an innovator. which means for a global company like siemens, we can get access to global talent, and if you have talent in all parts of the world, obviously you have the better talent pool to choose from than if you are limited geographically. for me it is an opportunity -- great market, great talent, and the speed of innovation will show who can win. you can watch the full interview on leaders with lacqua later in 2020. let's get to the bloomberg
business with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: uber has sold its .elf-driving car to aurora sources tell bloomberg the deal values aurora at $10 billion. uber is scaling back the ambitious driving project. valued at $4 billion, just about half of its valuation last year. airbnb is boosting the price range of its ipo, pushing its potential valuation to as much as $42 billion, increasing the price that usually indicates high demand from investors, and airbnb can still price shares up to 20% higher without having to reapply to the sec. oil.- during gold and future water availability in
california is able to be hedged and bet upon. they are highlighting concerns that water may become scarce across the world. and the u.k. has launched what it is calling the biggest immunization campaign in his history. covid vaccinations have started across the country, with front line and people over 80 at the front of the queue. tens of thousands are expected to get the vaccine from pfizer and beyond -- and biontech in the coming days. the u.k. is the first western nation to be given vaccinations. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you so much. they markets focused firmly on the vaccines. the markets focused on the debt firmly on brexit. we understand worse johnson will travel to brussels to see whether he can find a compromised with ursula von der leyen, but actually he spoke at a hospital earlier today in westminster. he spoke about covid, he spoke about the vaccine, and he didn't seem very helpful at all on a new deal.
think his exact words were he is hopeful of a new deal, but it is tricky. so the markets are looking at that. the markets are looking at of course what we had overall with some of these covid deaths matching april peaks as hospitalizations around the world are also jumping. most stocks today dropping full-time investors focusing on the swelling coronavirus infections, but also the tougher restrictions ahead, and then pound weakening for a third day as optimism for a brexit talk, leading to a deal, continues to fade. we will see exactly what happens from the meeting of boris johnson with ursula von der leyen. up next, more bloomberg surveillance. we speak with peter praet. ♪
the pound continues to sink. the big rollout. the u.k. vaccinates its first citizens in what it calls the biggest immunization campaign in history. however, stocks and those futures dip on a report that pfizer won't get more doses to america until at least june. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. tom, nice to have you back, just in time to look at brexit and the fact that talks are not going so well. we heard from boris johnson, speaking at the same hospital where he was treated for covid back in april. he talked about the vaccine and he said he is hopeful on a deal for brexit, but he said it is going to be tricky, so he doesn't sound that hopeful at all. an extra ordinary morning, folks. the huge news in the united states is politico reporting that president-elect biden will select a general from the pentagon to be