tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg December 11, 2020 11:00am-12:00pm EST
it's friday. live from london, i'm guy johnson. alix steel is a new york. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." european leaders approve the $2.2 trillion budget and rescue plan. tougher emissions standards also agreed. brexit barely featuring in the talks. germany posting record virus cases and deaths, with expectations going for another hardluck down. fe -- sanofi's vaccine expects delays. and tesla told to stop chopping down trees at its berlin site. week on enthusiasm this the risk side. today we are balancing that out.
european stocks down by 0.6%. we see the peripheral markets being hit a little bit harder. the madrid park it -- the madrid market down by walmart to 4%. -- down by 1.24%. the reflation trade has gathered pace, but the vaccine feels increasingly like it is in charge. brexit also the theme we are watching. the pound is off session lows, , 1.3 to 11 -- still down, $1.3211. alix: the european union package,that rescue resolving the dispute with hungary and poland. there was also agreement on new and more ambitious climate targets. joining us from brussels is maria tadeo. how does it set europe up for
the recovery out of this? maria: you had a meeting that went on for 22 hours nonstop, and we had a deal on climate, so that means reduction in emissions will be done quicker than expected. looking at a 55% reduction by 2030, so it is a significant change. the big highlight of the night has to be the recovery fund and the european budget. you are looking at $750 billion in joint debt, aaa rated debt by all of the member states and european institutions. it is a feeling of huge relief for countries like italy and spain to be able to know that starting 2021, that recovery fund will be operational, and by the end of the year 2021, that flow from the commission tapping markets will go directly into their pockets, so clearly there was a big sense of relief last night, and to be frank, a
orbanown from viktor in hungary. there were no concessions last night. guy: brexit barely getting a look. pascal donahue is the head of the eurogroup. let's hear what he's had to say. >> there is still trust from the european union that an agreement can be reached. i expect the same from the united kingdom. maria, he sounds vaguely optimistic. others don't feel that optimism at the moment. brexit barely got a look in last night. maria: it got no time. this is 22 hours nonstop, the european leaders were inside a room trying to hammer out deals on many different issues. brexit only got eight minutes, and it was not a discussion. it was just the head of the european commission ursula von der leyen briefing the dinner and how that went european
leaders. there was really no discussion on that front. the prime minister was hoping to get a moment with emmanuel geton and angela merkel to political lament them on this. that did not happen either. they have made it clear that the person negotiating is mr. barnier and ursula von der leyen and. it will be up to the commission to decide what happened sunday. guy: maria, good work. aria taddeo joining us from brussels. kohl,g us now, david julius baer chief economist. the rescue plan got over the line. the budget got over the line. emissions targets got over the line. when do we start to feel the effect of this in terms of economic growth here in europe? david: that is all fiscal policy, so effects will be felt mostly next year. the positive effects already
this year, they are just reducing the downside. idea.e seen this probably a lot of forecasters have upgraded their forecasts for this year so the reduction is not as big as feared. mobilized some money front implement benefits in countries which don't have the same good system in this respect, so the money out ready helped a bit in the crisis, but the big trump comes next year and the year after that -- the big chunk comes next year end the year after that. alix: if you pair that with a flexible ecb, what kind of recovery could we want up seeing from the eu? david: we think still that there might be some upside risks in the recovery. probably not so much on the timeline.
fourth quarter would be negative. third quarter is also a question. how can this recover when we have lockdowns, when harder lockdowns are discussed, particularly here in germany. but when we do all of the talking about how this translates into economic growth coming nation of loose monetary and fiscal policy which is ready to act, this is very powerful, but this will kick in only in the second half of next year, and then we will reallyd growth rates and only in 2022, so it could still go on for a longer time than many people expect. guy: dealing with the here and now, you mentioned it. it looks like lockdowns are going to get more severe. it looks as if germany could beheading again for a hardluck down. in terms of your models at the moment, what economic impact do you think that is going to have,
and is the risk at the downside in the moment in terms of the near-term economic trajectory? david: when you translate this into economic models, you always look at consumption, not so much in the classical sense, because usually consumption goes down. the corunna crisis, consumption goes down because people simply don't have the possibility to consume, so they will postpone it into the future. we still focus again on the service sector as the main contributor during this crisis, so we have to a knowledge that retail will probably be affected much more by the shutdowns we have seen so far, but again, the really important thing when you model that is that you have to knowledge that this crisis has not so much permanent effects as other crisis because it comes not out of industry. it comes not out of capital
destruction, but comes more due to less consumption at the current point of time, or in a quarter or some weeks, but this is really creating some pent-up, and we are seeing that a really and some inventory swings which are very remarkable during such a crisis. the bundestag was saying before scored or was going to get hit come up with a second quarter was going to get better, and it would be driven by consumption. but doesn't that apply that all of a sudden you get a shot in your arm, the economy opens, and you all go buy stuff? why are we also sure that will be the result? do you have to rethink how you are modeling a recovery? ,avid: why we think that because we experienced it this year already, so we have some calibration, how powerful these effects can be, and the crucial question is always if such a crisis triggers more then we are
constrained in the consumption front, that is the result also in mass unemployment. and this is important. it is becoming more and more important. does it also result in negative wealth effects? does it affect also financial markets? in this respect, we are quite confident that household wealth is quite good isolated from this crisis, and this helps to overcome that. , when you skip it in november or in january, you will spend this money for other things, and we see in a normal summative money which is ready to be spent. guy: are you reviewing your brexit outlook? the mood music has gotten significant lee worse. i wonder whether you have a view wanted as well.
consensus seems to be that we get a deal. is that starting to fray? david: we are redoing probably every hour because frankly, when we discussed and when we tried to about what could a deal be, we thought that this deal will be very narrow and herbs of what is going across to the u.k. the major headwind in particular when it comes to u.k. gdp comes really as the service sector has a big transition, this is not even incorporated in this deal, so we think that when we have a deal, there might be disappointed that this is not so cumbrian sieve as a lot of people thought, and that is why we have been cautious anyway, although hoping for a deal, giving a rather high likelihood for a minimal deal from january
1. will bevid kohl sticking with us. more on the vaccine and the rollout of the economic recovery, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ rg. ♪ in a land not so far away, people are saving hundreds on the most reliable network with xfinity mobile. they can choose from the latest phones or bring their own. and because they get nationwide 5g at no extra cost, they live happily ever after. again, again. your wireless. your rules. your way to stay closer together this holiday season. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. and get $300 off when you buy the samsung galaxy note20 ultra 5g. learn more at xfinitymobile.com.
alix: this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." germany's daily coronavirus cases and deaths rise the most since the pendant began, and london's mayor is urging real action to avoid a tier three lockdown. going is now is daniel schaefer, bloomberg german bureau chief. can you give me perspective on what is happening on the ground in germany and the likelihood of a lockdown in london again?
daniel: sure, happy to. we have seen a record number both in new cases, as well as in daily deaths since the pandemic started. the infection rate here is still three times the government lockdownespite a soft that the country has had since here november, so the mood very much is now going towards a hardluck down. -- a very hard lockdown. we will likely have a meeting of regional and state leaders over the weekend, will they will likely fight on closing non-essential shops, as well as extending the school holidays over the christmas and new .ear's holiday period so germany just before christmas will be headed for a harder
lockdown than the one we have seen now, and a similar fate , whereappen in the u.k. london now has the worst infection rate in the whole country, and there's going to be a decision next week on whether london should move to tier three which would mean much tougher restrictions such as the closure of restaurants and indoor entertainment, and it is very unlikely the mayor's -- the measures that the mayor has come with are going to prevent a high infection rate. guy: there are regions in the u.k. that have lower infection rates that are already in tier three, so people are talking about it on was being inevitable. thank you very much for the update. bloomberg's daniel schaefer joining us for what is happening in germany and here in london. kohl ofth us, david
julius baer. let's talk about the immediate response we will get from governments, and how you think we are potential he going to see markets reacting to all of this. yields are starting to come down here in europe. seeing the german bund yield come down relatively sharply this week, despite the fact that we do have the longer-term trajectory and more positive news coming with the vaccine. do you think we should be seeing a kind of retracing down to the levels we saw in march in terms of some of that we are seeing from financial markets? or do you think the market will continue to look through what is happening in the here and now? if we would see such sharp corrections, i would probably be only buy side. i think this is pretty unlikely. one is the mechanics of how it works, so a sharp recovery, that is one thing.
the other one is that the sectors which are affected in the areas which are affected, it is mostly employment. it is not so much output. these areas are not so much represented on equity markets in particular. with thick some of the euphoria we have seen in november, this might disappear given the lockdowns and given the acknowledgment that this recovery will not happen in the first half of the next year, but the second half of next year, so some adjustment on the timeline, that is important. it is not so much on the magnitude of the recovery. in harderhat lockdowns, they will do very little in terms of earnings expectations, which have been more resilient than most people expected.
guy: just getting some headlines i want to break for everybody. european bank regulators are considering a cap on dividends at 20%. there has been lots of lobbying, particularly by french banks, to get these dividend restrictions removed. the bank of england has just decided they will remove them. at looks as if european regulators are not going to go in the same direction. they are considering that dividend cap to last until september 2021 to encourage banks to retain funds to deal with what they see as a real crisis potentially in nonperforming loans next year. alix: let's tie that into the market because one of the because you could get payouts.as if we delay them and you still have this sluggish growth, and
you don't know what the recovery is going to look like even if it is going to be a healthy one, what is the case for that value rotation?? how do you look at it as an economist? david: this is where we see some break in this rotation when it comes to the sectors, but keep in mind in any case, since the pandemic, since the recovery from march, it was not the value place which performed very well. it was driven by growth companies which are very liberally affected. we think there will be some give back because of the things you mentioned. the financial sector is probably the one where you can see it must clearly, but then wait a bit longer, and you get them basically also rewarded here. with think this rotation you've seen in november has been overdone to march, and we think it will give realistic
dimensions. . alix: it was really good to catch up with you. thank you so much for joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪ - i'm doug hirsch. you may already know that goodrx can help you save up to 80% on your prescriptions. unfortunately, many americans can't get to a doctor right now. the good news is that for many health issues, you can see a doctor online. it's easy. just go to goodrx.com, and with a few clicks, you'll be treated by a licensed medical professional,
alix: welcome to "bloomberg close." the european ken moelis says he is ok of his employees would like to reallocate when it is time to go back into the office. the firm headquarters are anring new york, and has office in l.a. he spoke to bloomberg. >> not as much. i'm not sure i ever cared. we always spent a lot of time out of the office. i walked to the offices, and bankers in their office, that's
not where you do your work anyway. so i think i'll be much more forgiving about where people live, and i think we are going to be much more flexible about where people live, but i do want to have an office, and we will have an office and a central point because one of the things we did do was develop a great hit.re before the pandemic so when we all went to zoom, we knew each other. we knew who we were and we knew what we wanted to do. that lasts 10 years. i think you would want to have a central point where you glue that down, especially your young people who just come in. how are they going to understand your culture without physically feeling? office,oing to have an and we are going to try to make
it a central point. >> where will that be? your headquarters in new york city? you have a big office in los angeles. is that going to change? >> new york city will always be new york city, so i think it will be our center. will we thick about moving to environments that are more tax friendly, and where our executives want to work from? yes, we will thing about that. i think it will be demand driven. i think our executives will want to work in places that are lower friendly,corporate and maybe warm. >> so if one of your bankers were to say i want to move to and work in palm beach, that's ok? >> i've had more than one say it, eric, so it better be ok. i am making a joke of it because i think ahead 20 say it, and the -- and i want to
attract, motivate, and retain the greatest talent in the world, but if that talent wants to do it in florida, that's where we will support them. >> if you are going to open up a new location, will it be florida? lots of people are going to florida. they've also gone to texas. they are faking about arizona, nevada. what appeals to you? >> it's funny, the northeast sort of >> florida. california has chosen texas as its destination, but we have some and more people. new york is where there's eight to 10 times more people. it just seems like new york and florida.end to look to texas is fine. we have an office in dallas because we have a very smart employee who told me three to five years ago, i love you, but
i love zero taxation better, and dallas has a great airport, and why not move there. already have a satellite in texas, so we are not against that either. guy: ken moelis speaking exclusively to erik schatzker on bloomberg front row. goldman sachs talking about it. we see elon musk talking about ,exas, and here in europe barclays talking about a significantly smaller footprint for its operations. it's got a big operation out of the wharf. huge building. is it going to be using all of that? not quite too sure about that. what have we got next? the european close is coming up next. we will give you the final numbers of the day end of the week. this is bloomberg. ♪
the stoxx 600. the reality check today is the virus is once again regaining control of the narrative. we have official lockdown in london and in germany as well, potentially, so certainly that narrative is what you see. stocks lower, yields starting to come under pressure as well. bonds are starting to rise again. the story of the week, not that , but itwn by 9/10 of 1% does come towards the back end of the week. the loser this week is not that much, given the narrative shift that we have seen is sterling. the market seems to be holding ultimateving that the deadline is still the end of the year. the cable rate, down by 1.5%. the euro-dollar, absolutely flat on a week where we have seen the ecb coming out and delivering more stimulus. greater duration with that.
it certainly seems at the moment that we are in a scenario where rate cuts are negative for currency with more qe being quite positive. the ftse 500 down by seven tents of 1% and the losses on the continent are a bit greater. little bit,g a despite what we saw with santa fe today. dax under pressure, lockdown story in germany, casting a longer shadow over that market today. in terms of sector story, we have become risk off rotation wise. at the bottom you can see the banks and the energy stocks, the big gainers over the last few days are underperforming today. we are going to get a little bit saved her -- safer at the top end of the markets. hello fresh has outperformed this week, up 28% over the week. we saw j.p. morgan upgrading the stock. hello fresh up by 28%, as you
can see. santa fe, down by 5.8%, rolls-royce down by 9%. coming out today with bad news relating to its gsk, looks like that will be pushed out well into next year. rolls-royce, updating investors today on what's happening with that business. cash burn is a real issue. airlines around the world still have a lot of aircraft grounded. meeting the spare parts business isn't generating the revenue it does, not the cash that it used to and it's a real problem for rolls-royce, as you can see, down 10% on the week. teslalet's get to the drama in europe, they've been ordered to halt by a court their first production there. what actually happened here? ahead,t approval, go
build your plant, but then what? >> tesla is building a factory just outside berlin here, maybe by half an hours drive. the good news for tesla and elon musk is that the factory is pretty much there, but they need some extra space for pipes and other equipment. they started clearing some more space and it isn't so much about the forest or the trees, but rather the animals that live there. specifically a lizard and a snake variant that are endangered species. some groups are saying that tesla didn't relocate these animals properly and they want to make sure that that has happened and while that is going on, we have this temporary ban on the logging to make sure that the lizards and snakes have moved properly to their new homes. elon musk has an aggressive target for getting the facility up and running midway through next year. is this going to be a short-term
delay? a longer-term delay? there could be a real problem for that target. give us a sense of timeline. >> it sounds like and looks like a short-term lip, a small issue that they can overcome. there's too much riding on this project politically and economically. the factory will be in the future standing pretty much. it seems unimaginable that he wouldn't be able to build this factory or get production up and running. and the delay probably won't be that long. the government is really behind this as well. the region where he is building the factory is really a no man's land in terms of economic prosperity, so they need the jobs, they need the expertise. once they can prove that the lizards and the snakes have new homes, he should be up and running again. feel, we feel we all this in the u.s. as well turning to other news in the car industry, volkswagen coming out a few minutes ago, facing
disruption in productions. there was a german parts supplier hit by a covid-19 outbreak. we talked a lot about this in the spring. how much of an issue is it going to be, like, going forward? what does it mean as they come out of recovery in terms of their inventory? volkswagennot blood or any carmaker needs. production is already not doing well. demand isn't where it should be. as you said, this just came out from volkswagen, a supplier, we don't know which, said that they have a covid-19 outbreak at avis haveh at a facility and shuttered production temporarily. that's sort of rippling through the industry. the sign for volkswagen is they have to manage their supply chain and make sure that they can get these parts somewhere else. they don't want to be too dependent on one single supplier. we just heard that the numbers
in germany are creeping up quite dramatically. we have to be sure that they can get their parts elsewhere so that they can make their cars and again for the time being a production slowdown at their main facility, how long it might take, we don't know. this is just sort of hot off the press. one last question, the mood music on brexit has changed over the last few days. germany is likely to be most affected by a hard brexit. growingtarting to see a expectation within that industry that we are going to see some severe problems and is the industry ready for it? industry has worked towards this for several years but there was always the hope that it wouldn't come to that point where we now seem to be falling off a cliff at the end of the year. heard of severe supply disruptions at the coast, pileups of cars there. imports and exports, a lot of
lack of clarity there even though there is only a fortnight to go. the short answer is nobody quite knows what blackhole they are staring into right now and main street probably isn't ready and on january 1 it might well be that those long lines that we are seeing in dover will become longer, still, until this sort of sorts itself out sometime in the first half of next year. guy: benedict, have a great weekend, thank you for your time this afternoon. european stocks fading into the close, a bit of a downdraft on the option. these are the final numbers of a negative session. a more realistic session, some would argue, as we focus on lockdown's in europe. more coverage of that at the top of the hour, john and i will be walking you through that on digital radio. this is bloomberg.
the european close." at 3 p.m. in new york, 8 p.m. in london, the greylock partner. this is bloomberg. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. americans may start getting vaccinated for the coronavirus as soon as monday, according to alex azar, who tells abc news that they have been authorized to use the vaccine from pfizer and beyond tech. london beefing up covid rules and launching more testing. the mayor is trying to avoid having the city placed under tough virus restrictions. they had the highest rate of cases in england, putting the capital on course to hit tier three, closing all indoor entertainment venues. authorities in china have detained a bloomberg news assistant on suspicion of endangering national security.
a chinese citizen was seen being escorted, escorted from her apartment building on monday by plainclothes security officials. officials say the cases under investigation and her rights have been fully insured. a spokesman for bloomberg says that the spokespeople have been eaking to authorities to find out more. european regulators are wondering whether to cap payments to 20% of profits and it could last through september the 25% of go below profits that bank of england said banks should start paying next year. quick, -- this is bloomberg. ♪ -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. guy: it's interesting, u.s. banks went all in on provisioning to cover what they thought would be some really quite severe numbers in terms of nonperforming loans. not all of that has materialized, with that money now repatriated.
in europe banks took a less conservative view of the world and as a result of which, regulators are probably more nervous now about what happens next but the bank of england said 25% of profit of risk-weighted assets. potential the ecb european regulators under that umbrella could be taking an even more conservative view and if you read between the lines there must be a perception that next year could be tough in terms of the nonperforming loans likely to emerge with hints coming from regulators saying you know what, guys, you need to get on with this and take a more clearly defined view of what's going to be coming and get ready for it. i wonder how much it will disrupt value trade? six months ago it was about by u.s. and disrupt europe in the financials, but now it's defective m&a. guy: absolutely, with the ecb
sitting there as well, a number of guests yesterday have a similar answer, ecb is effectively doing the control. curve is not good for banks and it could be with us for quite some time. but you do have some positive politics over here that you don't necessarily have in the united states in terms of approving stimulus. after that huge marathon all-night session in brussels last night, the european union approved that stimulus package after the block resolved hungary and poland who were threatening to use a veto over plans to use a sort of democratic standard that would be applied to, to some of this money being dispersed. the center for european reform director joins us now to give us his take on all of this. charles, i have watched these developments over the last few days with a great deal of interest. two things happened last night,
one of which being we got the budget and stimulus package over the line and the eu environmental standards over the line. but the reports from in the room where that even on the latter, central european countries like poland and hungary were still causing problems and headaches for people like angela merkel. when it comes to the rule of law , when it comes to becoming green in europe, there's a huge risk that exists. i'm just wondering if the last few days really pose actually some big questions about the direction that europe is going in. >> i think you are right. there's a huge risk. it's not just on these conditionality's for recovery. it's not just on the issue of carbon reduction. it's also in the issue of migration and refugees. one reason why the eu has not to establish a
possession on asylum-seekers is they want to have quotas in each take a portion of the refugees with poland, hungary, and the czech republic saying no, we are going to do that. on a load of issues there are risks to the east and west. these countries that were a part of the soviet bloc for years have no tradition of multiculturalism. no tradition of having muslims like thecountry empires, britain and france, did. ofy rejected this model liberalism. futurell be a break on european integration as long as several parts of the government issue these vetoes that they have, it will put a brake on the local numbers to what has already moved. that's exactly where i
wanted to go. which leaders now have to reach out to other leaders to set the conversation? we still need to distribute the recovery fund money, there still needs to be an oversight committee to see if it's working . we haven't even talked about a banking union or anything on those lines. who needs to be in the room, maybe, to be effective? >> this is where you have to let me mention brexit, it's slightly relevant to what we are saying. in the past european countries and the rest of the eu, the british share the euro skeptical attitude with the bridge being gone. , she putrkel herself together the deal over the last fronturs on the recovery experience, the standing, the expertise, the andina to play that role
stop them from falling off the edge. with her gone in a year, it will be worrisome that the eu lacks a central authority like angela merkel. charles, you have watched with a great deal of interest, i'm sure, over the last few years, as the brexit story has abbott and flowed. what is your assessment now as we had to year end? optimistic all that we couldsure maintain trade relations between the eu and the u.k. i worry that both sides are entrenched in high ideological positions. for britain, that wonderful, perfect sovereignty and the eu, the single market want to anything to allow the british to
slur their integrity in a difficult market. both sides are really talking about cracking down and the truth is, the british are not going to greater cut their social environment standing and are looking for a need to punish to do so. they are both so entrenched, i worried, there's -- i worry that there is no outside uncle or aunt to say you and i can compromise in five minutes but no one is playing that compromising role well. guy: the former chancellor rode a damming piece this week talking about basically the british being a frog in slowly boiling water. he was basically sort of questioning how we got to where we are and how a small group of people at the center of the conservative party have managed
to push us towards what was never conceivable at the beginning of this process. how did it happen? broadly right.'s it happened because one group of people, these very right wing hard brexiteers, they shout a lot and make a bit of noise and the people with more moderate views keep their heads down. wanted ay the cabinet deal, i know that, but they don't say so because they want avoid the fear of obsession. the other problem i think we are in the mess that we are in is the current johnson government, there's a great lack of expertise. senior administers, special advisors, not many of them know much about the eu
one of the reasons the british , wernment is in a mess didn't have the intelligence to not cross the red lines. they lack that expertise about how this works. alyx: charles morning. the fda seemed to issue that authorization friday night, they recommended the vaccine between biontech and pfizer yesterday but now they are crossing their teas, doubting their eyes. this is "dashed this is bloomberg. ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪
biggest business stories in the news right now. the u.s. hotel industry coming milestone, one billion empty rooms for the year . hotel owners could see the crisis get worse before the vaccine leads to a recovery and it is estimated that last year, as of -- compared to occupancy rates last year, hotels missed out on 46% revenue. apple has historically had an office centric culture but tim cook said that their success during pandemic lockdown could lead to more working remotely. that's the latest business flash. less office space? what is it mean for commercial real estate? the list goes on. what we's talk about are seeing right now and recap, they expect the fda to give final clearance to the vaccine. i have to wonder why it is
taking so long. the sense of anticipation since a's are was on this morning on "good morning america," saying that we would started next week, i would have thought we would have had it by now and it makes me wonder what's going on in there. alyx: seems as though the rhetoric is that this is normal for u.s. approval of drugs? we know theylike are going to approve it, right? put it in nursing homes december 21. there's already plans in place to go and distribute. seem that it is the other end of the age spectrum causing the problems, taking it down to 16-year-olds, there was some suggestion they would halt at 18-year-olds but we were talking earlier in the program that those 16-year-olds are working in coffee shops and places like that and are potentially spreaders, but i thought they would be much
further down the line terms of that list that everybody talks about where you are going to get your vaccine. i would have thought that 16-year-olds would be miles down that list. alyx: not to mention that we realized from the u.k. that with reaction,you have a but i guess that's what happens. up, the afl-cio president joins "balance of power," with david westin. happy friday, everybody. this is bloomberg. ♪
headquarters to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." we want to check with a stack -- start with a check of the markets. kailey: i think the primary driver is the lack of any tangible process on the fiscal aid front. certainly, the worsening virus headlines don't help. they may also be a bit of taking risk off the table. around .7%.is down almost every sector is in the red. are inovery plays that the most pain. energy and financials on the bottom of the pile. the small-cap, cyclical play, are getting hit as well. the banks, that bradley has to do with the risk off