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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  December 18, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EST

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>> good morning. city of00 a.m. and the london. i am annmarie hordern. a second shot. vaccine wins the backing of fda advisors. debatele, continuing to over a stimulus. backlist -- set to
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blacklist scores more chinese companies. boris johnson says brexit talks are in a serious situation. officials in brussels are confident of a breakthrough. you.good morning to 6:00 a.m. in the city of london. we did have some breaking news for the end of the last hour from the u.s. explaining that so-called entity list, blacklist of about 80 companies, most of them coming from china. trading in hong kong, it is notably lower. down about 0.4 percentage points. guest,ipmaker, china's for a number of months. we do have this expansion, coming at the end of president trump's term. the big scene there was the chinese trade war. in terms of broader equity
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ofkets, sending losses off that news. we did have another record. equity, asia-pacific, down 0.5%. 122.dollar, that is the story of the morning. we have a long trend happening with dollar weakness. technical levels suggesting the dollar index could drop another 15%. touch at brief 80,000. we are a little below that. jeff curry saying we are in a new cycle. we could see potentially new highs in copper. we have not seen 8000 and seven years. a lot of bullishness coming across in these base metals. the u.s., a second vaccine within reach after the fda
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advisors back to moderna's shot. the majority of the panel said the benefits outweigh any risk. we are joined by a quicktake reporter. 1:00 a.m.. how long before we actually see and get this approval? it could come within days? >> you are totally right. this authorization could come within the next when he four hours is what we are hearing. on thursday, we saw this panel of advisors vote overwhelmingly to approve this vaccine, this modernity vaccine. they voted 20-0 with one abstention. now what happened, similar to the pfizer vaccine, it moves to the fda and the fda will get to vote on whether they authorize this vaccine for emergency use. it could happen within the next few hours.
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24 hours. what we saw the discussion on thursday focus on, some of the side effects we did see from the vaccine. many of the allergic reactions, some of the allergic reactions people were getting. they were discussing some of the potential side effects that could come from the modernity vaccine. it seemed like they were typical of any vaccine. headaches, fatigue, muscle aches. nothing for them to be too worried about. what we heard from alex azar's once the fda approves this dosese, we could see moving nationwide in the next few days. somewhere around 5.9 million doses, making it the second approved vaccine to be distributed. want to ask you. how close are we to a stimulus
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deal? technically, today, friday, was supposed to be one of the deadlines. >> lawmakers like to go up against the clock with deadlines. today is when they need to finalize a plan for stimulus relief. heard from mitch mcconnell about where talks are at currently. this is what he said thursday. >> a bipartisan agreement appears to be close at hand. been discussing with speaker pelosi. we will get another dose of bipartisan support out the door as soon as possible. we have yet to nail down every detail, but we had to discussing the targeted second round of the paycheck protection program republicans have sought since last summer. >> that was mitch mcconnell on
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thursday. there are still some agreements lawmakers are held up in. in this $900 billion relief plan, a $600 payment for individuals which is down from the 1200 we saw earlier. insurancepplemental for unemployment. there are still some sticking points democrats and republicans cannot agree on. soonneed to get there enough. especially because we are facing up against a potential government shutdown friday. lawmakers are hoping to attach this relief plan to what they are hoping for, the omnibus plan for 2021. i'm getting my years mixed up. the senate majority leader saying they were going to work through the weekend. they are going in recess soon for the holidays.
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they don't want to face their constituents without a plan. put 2020ne is ready to behind us. bloombergare quicktake reporter. six: 06 and the city of london. move lower in the futures. down more than 0.2%. asia benchmarks. all of this coming out of the fact the u.s. is expanding this blacklist. the most notable, the top chipmaker. ininiscent of the trade war 2019. nasdaq futures as well lower. you do see a market move lower in the futures. we do not have yet a stimulus deal in the u.s. many were pointing to.
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all of this news flow, the chief economist. i wanted to talk to you first about the good news, a potential stimulus, another vaccine. now we have this potential fresh tensionseen trade between beijing and washington. what are your initial thoughts? developmentot a new from the trumpet ministry should. adding companies moving up, chinese entities in the blacklist. process whether administrationmp trying to enforce its own legacy being hawkish with china. are part of his group running again for 2024. or whether this becomes some of
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the political craft for joe biden. it will be seized on by republicans as a sign he is weak in this relationship. the weakness you are seeing is a function of the fact this has implications for the biden administration. >> it makes sense. are you expecting for 2021, 2022, relations to get better with china? or potentially sour under biden? you put a time scale, 2021, 2022, i think we can roll out a lot further than that. i have described this as an economic cold war. investors is for
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it never flares up into a hot war. i think there will be economic frictions, growing pains. they are going to have to traded near term. dial down the rhetoric. it is not going to register anytime soon over the next couple of years, probably the next couple of decades. >> markets, yesterday at least, shrugging off the bad data. claims, at the jobless in the stimulus deal potentially we could see tomorrow -- today or this weekend, do you think $900 billion is enough? $900 billion in and of itself, if we see a rollout of a vaccine, changing the way the
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services based part of the economy could operate into the middle of the year, it is macroly enough from a standpoint. there will be distribution problems and households that have already been hit very hard i this pandemic. effect isng potentially quite significant, households not having an attention -- attachment to labor income. fiscal policy is just not relevant. they are looking at opening commitments from the federal reserve. $120 billion a month. , theare saying near term additive impacts of a fiscal stimulus in financial conditions is relatively minimal.
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it is less relevant for wall street. divergent's of main street and the real economy. your first recap of word news. >> good morning the united states is reported to be set to add dozens of chinese companies to a trade blacklist. in total, around 80 additional to thees could be added so-called entity list. nearly all of them chinese. the move comes a little more than a month before joe biden takes over. the u.s. nuclear weapons agency was hacked as part of a suspected russian cyberattack that struck a number of federal government agencies. hackers with ties to the russian government are suspected to be behind a well coordinated breach that took advantage of breaches in the u.s. supply chain. microsoft confirmed its systems had also been targeted as part
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of the attack. shares fell as much as 10% in hong kong after bloomberg reported allegations. officials are said to retaininguded -- day-to-day influence. the company strongly refutes the allegations. global news, 24 hours a day. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. >> laura wright in london. coming up, the u.k. warned brexit negotiations are quote ed.cks stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress?
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the city of london. welcome back to europe. brexitk. has warned remain- big differences on fishing. a lot of negative rhetoric coming from leaders after that phone call. is this just political theater at the end of tough negotiations? >> that question is always so hard to answer. the fact that there are actually talks happening around the clock in brussels and things are really quickly moving. you move away from the call yesterday which no one was expecting a deal to come out of. diplomats were telling us this
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is just about taking stock. being in touch. it was a 40 minute call, a lot of repetition. the eu said what they have been saying, a deal is possible. you look at what the prime minister said, the same line we have heard. we want a deal but if not, we will go no deal. is, talks are still very much happening in brussels. say it is a good thing. it does mean they have entered the tunnel. they do want to get to a compromise to some extent. factld focus more on the they are still talking. we know this is happening around the clock. saying they are just repeating soundbites. not really adding anything new. >> the european parliament saying potentially sunday is the
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deadline. they want to vote on a deal this month. what happens if they miss that? >> this could get very messy. it is a big conversation happening and brussels. the european parliament saying if we don't have a deal, we are not going to be able to read it. we are not going to vote on it. we really need to read it in detail before saying go. there is a liberal, tricky question that could come into play. december 31 is not a political deadline. the u.k. was offered to extend the transition. they said no, we do not want to get stuck in transitions. there could be an agreement that is not ratified. what happens in those 2-3 weeks and we wait for that deal to be ratified? there are a lot of questions about whether the eaters will have to reach an extension. a bill that would keep
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everything there. whether you see a risk, that could be very problematic for businesses because they would not know what type of legality applies. >> we see already some confusion with businesses or at least some of the hold up is a test of these new rules. ofery busy weekend ahead her. thank you for joining us from brussels. gordon is back with us. of 135.d, north so much of this is dollar weakness. can it really go any higher? not a sustainable rally. >> that is a good observation. what has not happened is a discernible rally in sterling euro. headlines,yes, those looks like selling strength.
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it hasn't really budged. moreink there is crosswinds in the euro. i think this is key. there event of the deal will be some enthusiasm rally in sterling. there are still some hurdles to in qualifications based recognition, standards, the services trade which will not be wrapped up in this free trade agreement but which is essential to the u.k. ongoing competitiveness. >> i want to ask you about the dollar. we have seen serious weakness in the dollar. there could be another 15% drop in dollar.
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the bank of america survey talking about short dollar being one of the most crowded trades. do you think the dollar has room to move lower? >> momentum certainly points that way. have, it takes us back 5-10 minutes in terms of what the u.s. administration will approach. key multilateral relationships. a lot of the enthusiasm for non-dollar currency is predicated on an administration that is more multilateral. of the of that flows out dollar, and to europe, it will float the other way. tradeonally would not solely the momentum. i would look for straws in the bidenn terms of what the administration will translate. into discernible action.
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thank you so much for joining us. .imon french, chief economist happy friday. china in a firing line. the u.s. reported to be set to add dozens of chinese companies to a trade blacklist. this is bloomberg. ♪ the usual gifts are just not going to cut it. we have to find something else. good luck! what does that mean? we are doomed. [laughter] that's it. i figured it out! we're going to give togetherness. that sounds dumb. we're going to take all those family moments and package them. hmm.
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[laughing] that works.
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>> this is daybreak era. are set to add -- the united states set to add dozens of chinese companies. the reported move is seen as a
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-- president china china trump's tough stance. this is potentially another blow for beijing. 80 companies, most of them are chinese. do you think this is it? is this the final addition? more tensionl see before january 20? >> there is several weeks to go. it is quite possible we will have an escalation. that has yething to be confirmed by bloomberg news. certain this for is going to happen. if it does, it would be a big problem for china's major chipmaker. pressure in hong kong trading.
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in the u.s. crosshairs. is it not really a surprise, if this report is confirmed, they are one of the companies added to that blacklist? to be expected if the trumpet ministry should is going to ramp up pressure, smic would be one of the main targets. there are quite a lot of other possibilities as well. the trump administration really has been going after companies it says are affiliated with the chinese military. otherare quite a lot of companies that could call -- fall into that category. >> what does this do for the incoming biden administration? does create some challenges. they are going to have to make some decisions about how they are going to enforce this.
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there is a lot of uncertainty get -- arecompanies included in the executive orders. whether the question of it is the parent company that only gets covered or other subsidiaries. how broad do you interpret this? that is something the biden folks might need to be dealing with. much for joining us on this reuters report. bloomberg news has yet to confirm this but the report is saying about 80 companies, mostly in china, will be added to this blacklist. futures took a leg lower on this news. we were down at one point more than 0.2%. hiterday, after the s&p 500 another record high. asian equities under pressure.
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the company that is hit the hardest, smic, also underweight this morning. coming up, we are going to look at the stimulus deal in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: good morning from
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bloomberg's european headquarters. i'm annmarie hordern and this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." modernity vaccine wins the backing of fda advisors. u.s. lawmakers continued to debate over bipartisan stimulus deal. reports from writers suggest the united states is set to blacklist scores of chinese companies. u.s. futures are lower.
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talksjohnson said brexit -- officials in brussels are confident of a breakthrough. good morning. happy friday. we start with breaking news from a reuters report saying the u.s. is potentially set to add 80 andanies to the blacklist, , part of the list will be smic the top chipmaker out of china. they are extending losses past 4% this morning. they have been in the crossfire in washington-beijing trade wars, and they will be added to that list. hit aday the s&p 500 fresh record, but now we are seeing some losses in the futures market. clawing back what we originally saw when the report came out.
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the broader asian market under pressure. a little lighter volume today. msci asia-pacific down 0.5%. euro-dollar sitting north of 1.22. the story is of a weaker dollar. see 15% lower on the dollar index. you are saying a little reprieve and a pause of that, but euro-dollar north of 1.22. the british pound stronger against the dollar. copper just below 8000. we did breach 8000, and we have not seen that level in seven years. yesterday we were talking about copper could see new all highs. goldman sachs says 10k intentionally on copper which has to do to the insatiable
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demand out of china. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says an agreement appears to be close at hand. he added top lawmakers are trying to nail down every detail on a bipartisan relief deal. the latest thing they are haggling over has to do with the fed program. commenting on the possibility of that deal, former treasury secretary larry summers told david westin it is better than expected. >> i'm glad to cease to melissa's coming and help for small businesses -- glad to see stimulus is coming and help for small business. this is not as good of a bill as we could have had, but better than expected. we should be grateful for that. manus: steen jakobsen, head of emea investment strategy, citibank now joins us. good morning to you. i want to get your thoughts on
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2021, but get your thoughts on the news of the day. markets are waiting for this stimulus deal which is needed for the real economy. you look at the jobless claims number yesterday. is $900 million enough, and do you see it going through? think it is likely to happen because the mood on the ground especially on the hill is getting such that everyone wants to do this deal. i think the 900 will come through quickly. it is less than what the democratic party was looking for, but that was an ambitious task ahead of the inauguration. this is enough to get things started. i presume they will start immediately when the session comes back in january to work on additional stimulus. manus: the jobless claims number yesterday was not good.
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why are the markets tuning out all of the bad news? worst theause the economic outlook is, the better for the market. the main driver remains the technology sector. the technology sector has a duration risk, and a rate sensitivity that equates being long 15-20 year bond. like theit looks economy will slow down, the better support for the technology sector, which is ironic from the principles we were taught in school, but that is how it has been for the last three years. good news for the economy, improvement in the underlying structure will mean the pressure goes up, and that becomes a headwind for equities. manus: one of the major drivers of the market is the weaker
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dollar, and that is benefiting commodities. also the fact we are seeing a pickup in demand in asia. want your thoughts on where we trade on copper, at a seven-year high. >> if you look at the markets today, it looks similar to 2000. you have the telltale signs of a super cycle. --us: coleman sachs says annmarie: goldman sachs says we could hit $10,000. you agree? >> i agree 100%. what is going on as we have been so successful in the transformation to digital and online that the underlying physical structure no longer can keep up. as we talk today, we have the highest rate from china to europe and the u.s. we have the massive increase in delivering these goods, so the investment in the mining sector that goes to the root of your
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question has been there for 10 years. now everyone wants to do online and green transformation and infrastructure. that has not even started yet. we are in the early stages of seeing that. the critical thing to understand about commodities is what we call the yield role has become positive. for the first time in a decade we paid to be long commodities, which adds to the underlying strength of all of the industrial and in particular the available copper used in places like china is very short. annmarie: thank you so much. i want to move on to your 2021 addictions. i have your note called outrageous predictions, and one of the first is amazon buys cyprus. these explain. , isn: cyprus, i have to say
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an innocent bystander. it is the size of the economy that matches what we are trying to say. these platforms in polite little terms, monopolies, they are so big that they have more power than governments. you see these companies have full lobby representation at the eu and k street in the u.s., and overall they operate as if they were a sovereign state. they own all of this data which is useful in terms of what goes on in the underlying economy. we think in 2021 it will be one of the major talking points that companies like amazon, facebook and others will have to have a headwind from the fact that they will try to get away from. make no mistake, some of these companies like amazon have paid little to zero in taxes over the last 10 years despite the fact
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they have created the richest owners of business in the world. annmarie: you are saying it is time to short some of these tech companies, even though they have been the absolute darlings of 2020. you think 2021 will not be as friendly to tech? steen: i think tech will have a hard time in 2021. that goes back to the question on copper. sensitivity --e we think we are in a super cycle in commodities. the marginal cost of everything operating in the physical world will go up so much so that one surprise in 2021, central banks needs to go to neutral and inflation becomes high enough it will have to react. if that happens, and the interest rate in the 10 year rakes 100 basis points, but
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ultimately 150 which i think is likely, the sensitivity of these companies will be hard. i'm rotating into the physical world, logistics, mining companies, and companies that are part of the green transformation that is happening now. annmarie: the other one on your list is germany bails out france. you say france will need to bailout french banks. does that mean you want to buy french banks before that happens? steen: remember again, these are outrageous -- not our main -- but what we are saying, if you look at the private debt in france, 140% of gdp is higher italy.eece and the banking sector is at risk because if the private debt is not repaid, the nonperforming loans of the underlying banking businesses will have to be revisited. the deal here is you are
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skeptical going into the new year, and you see this deterioration in nonperforming loans, and by on the fact that ultimate leader banking sector of europe is one of the same. if the german banking sector wants to survive, they have to have the french tanking sector to operate. the bigger theme being a country like france is one of the most severely hit by this slowdown going on from the pandemic. annmarie: the final outrageous call you have, china's new digital currency inspires a tectonic shift in capital flows. it shorts the u.s. dollar and is overweight chinese government bonds and equities versus the rest of the world. today we have dozens of companies going to be added to the u.s. blacklist. is this a complete buy china call? steen: it is more buy the
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leading technology and rising alternatives to the u.s. dollar. one of the main skeptic buy?acks, what will i what is the alternative? we think for our part, a digital currency issued by the pboc, which is in the pipeline is a credible alternative. the reason for that being a country like china who is trying to control the capital outflow, they can achieve controlling the capital outflow and allowing foreigners like you and i to invest widely and broadly into the economy if they have a digital currency. the facility of digital currencies, you have 100% control work money goes and comes from. i am concerned about the increased tension between the u.s. and china, but for our part, we are thinking the
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technology rate is inevitable and the world will operate in two economic zones. i have no doubt in the china driven asian trade zone, the digital currency of china will be the number one currency to go to. increasingly, investors in asia return, andseek out deposit the liquidity the chinese market relative to the one you and i live in now. annmarie: thank you so much for putting on your futurist cap for us. coming up, home improvement. people look to upgrade the spaces they are working and living in. how has the world's biggest furniture store made the shift to online. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning. is5 in london, this "bloomberg daybreak: europe." moving yourar of office into your home, people are looking to upgrade their spaces they are living and working in. we spoke exclusively to jesper brodin about the shift to e-commerce. been anit has incredibly challenging year from everything around the pandemic. from the start for everybody. interesting enough, we were lucky a few years ago, we decided to speed up the .ransformation
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and when the pandemic hit in march, we were capable to scale up capacity and switch to online. we don't have to build so many more warehouses and distribution. we are not capable -- [indiscernible] it has been a struggle. we have managed to deliver numbers, but less than in ordinary times. we take back approximately a third, sometimes up to 50% of the loss. more interesting for us, it seems what we do not sell today, we sell tomorrow.
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>> pent up demand. you recently had supply chain issues in the u.k., but this was due to covid. do you think this will happen, more supply chain issues? are you having these conversations to plan for that environment? jesper: it is always hard to know these days. if we learned anything in the last 12 months, stay humble to what we do not know. the pandemic has created disturbances in the global supply chain beyond our imagination. if you look at the global perspective, containers are in the wrong places. it is incredibly difficult from time to time to get enough people working the ports. .verybody works with trade
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in that perspective, brexit is not the global challenge from that perspective. c plans ready,nd how do we find ways to manage if there were to be a temporary disturbance? i feel we are fairly ready for whatever may come. challenge ishat dwarfed by the pandemic which is a global challenge for us and everybody. annmarie: would you be stockpiling, or have you been the last three months ahead of december 31? jesper: stockpiling is a dangerous concept. it would clog your own supply chain. ikea, not many people we have more than 60% of
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our product going straight from industries. ashaving as few links possible between production and customers, you can limit your risks of getting blocked in different places. we are fairly optimistic we should manage through any crisis. annmarie: jesper brodin, ceo, ingka group speaking to me here read you can catch more of that conversation on this week's "bloomberg green" this week on bloomberg and bloombergquint take. -- bloomberg quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." cryptocurrency stocks soared yesterday, bitcoin smashed another record, topping $23,000 per token. it has tripled in value this year, and some observers predict more to come. for a while you were actually a bitcoin bear big time. you covered gold for years. is bitcoin the new gold? >> you are right, i was in that camp who said bitcoin is going to zero and it will not stick around. clearly it is, it keeps coming back. the question if it is gold, that is a stretch. if you look at how bitcoin is as any portfolio, it
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complete lead aspect from gold. i do not think it is the new gold at the moment. annmarie: the other big question, what this rally showed us, this is less about retail investors and about institutional investors. if you do not have any exposure to cryptocurrencies in your portfolio? >> i think so, a lot of people are waking up to this. accepting that coin is in investable asset that will be there are valid ways of investing in this asset class. facte are waking up to the where it sits in their portfolio, the most volatile asset class. it is not appropriate for a pension fund. it is appropriate for the very wealthy and people who have
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overfunded portfolios. know,ie: what i want to and you can give us details on why this could happen, three years ago we saw a huge rally in bitcoin, then that burst. do you think that is what will happen with this one? what is your outlook on the cryptocurrency market in 2021? >> we have seen that in the past, these spectacular runs up. and then it crashed. i think -- every time that happens, we go to a higher peak, and drop to a higher place. the first time we dropped 85%. the second time we went to 4000 on the drop. brave if you are
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going to invest, and accept the volatility. the potential upside is spectacular. annmarie: we have seen that, certainly. thank you for joining us, bloomberg live european strategist. he got up early for us this friday. that does it for me and "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the european open is up next. we can see futures lower and softer this morning. we are clawing back after the drop from the writers report saying the u.s. government is preparing to add 80 companies mostly in china to the blacklist. happy friday. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ anna: good morning and welcome to bloomberg markets the european open. i'm anna edwards live in london. matt: good morning. the markets say the doctor will see you now. $8,000 a ton for the first time in seven years. futures in europe are off. here are your top headlines from the bloomberg terminal. china's top chipmaker


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