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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 18, 2020 6:00am-7:00am EST

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markets with equities near record highs. inflation expectations continue to surge. less so in europe and the united kingdom. the stimulus talks are not going well. could there be a partial government shutdown? the heart of the matter, what role should washington play in crisis? of she will oversee 1/5 america's land. take route 66 west. biden picks a native american for interior. "bloomberg surveillance" from new york, from london as well. we are looking at the bloomberg world on markets, and guess what? the battles of politics never, ever end. it will kill us in this hour to continue this debate forward. at this moment, we've got some important interviews coming up. i try to get an update on this .eekend in brexit
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. francine:francine: we are trying to get two updates, on stimulus talks and on brexit. we still are none the wiser about exact it will happen. is i would point to pboc and some of the other headlines you brought us about 10 minutes ago. if you look at the major central banks, pboc had talked about tightening. it would go against all of the other central banks, and we could see some very interesting currency moves on the back of it. tom: markets churning here. really quiet, really flat. maybe looking for news of the indeterminate brexit, the indeterminate stimulus as well. with our first word news in new york city, his ritika gupta. ritika: the u.s. is on the verge of having a second coronavirus vaccine approved. a panel of outside experts who advises regulators has given its ok to a vaccine made by moderna. the food and drug administration could authorize the stock today. high stage showed a
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of effectiveness in late stage trials. the u.s. government faces the prospect of a partial government shutdown. leaders in both parties are working to complete the coronavirus police deal tied to a giant government spending measure. some senators opposed to parts , which could bill lead to a shutdown. the u.s. reportedly is set to blacklist dozens of chinese companies. semiconductor manufacturing international. the companies will be denied access to u.s. technology. time is running out to reach a trade agreement with the european union. british prime minister boris johnson says talks will fail unless the eu back soffit stand on fishing rights. behind the -- backs off its stand on fishing rights.
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can bethe scenes, it just a negotiating ploy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: reddick i, thanks so much. i just got one screen today, with futures mixed. ritika, thanks so much. i've just got one screen today, with futures mixed. a negative real yield has been the story of my week, negative one point 03. dollar churning. francine: i think there are bigger factors at play, so the market is not really moving that much. the euro did drop, so both sides are warning that negotiations are hitting a snag to find a deal. it is partly brexit, partly what is happening in the u.s., and failure to find stimulus for now. a couple of things i am watching out for. i feel like the new story is
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deftly towards china. the u.s., through various reports, is repairing to blacklist certain chinese companies. that could have an impact on women be. i'm what -- on minnen be -- on renminbi. i'm watching bitcoin. tom: the new cycle in washington has been extraordinary. you can be certain that two or three hours into the evening, everyone has moved on from your speech. let's listen to a pre-evening mitch mcconnell. bipartisan,ll: a bicameral agreement appears to be close at hand. the outline i have been discussing with speaker pelosi showeader mccarthy would bipartisan support out the door as soon as possible. we've yet to nail down every detail, but in broad strokes, we have been discussing the
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targeted paycheck protection program that republicans of sought since last summer. tom: and the majority leader and others set themselves up for an extra ordinary weekend, and they really don't want to be in washington on this holiday weekend. martin schenker is our chief content officer, and joins us this morning to recalibrate. what will you and our washington team look for on this friday as we go into weekend meetings? marty: obviously they will continue to have discussions on the bill, and that is just the typical washington white and ait untilgton w the final dance. they could wait until monday, so i would expect it to go right to the wire, probably sometime on monday. tom: who has the high ground here?
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know that anyone particularly has the high ground here. they all seem to be on the same page. say recessem to and without a stimulus measure is untenable, so i think would both like to go back and say victory achieved, but they are going to take their time doing it. francine: good morning from london. this is so un-european. we are in the middle of a pandemic. people need the money. how will this play out in the georgia senate race? marty: i keep making a mental analogy to brexit. again, this is pushing to the very last moment. it is typical of this congress. joe biden would like to change that when he gets in office, and perhaps he can. i don't know that it will have any impact in georgia unless they don't reach an agreement, and then the perception of who
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is at fault will be key in that race. what will be joe biden's biggest challenge in the first 100 days? under tremendous pressure to use executive orders to undo a lot of the trump administration policies on such things as immigration, drilling, on a whole host of measures. he will need to hit the ground running. he will have a honeymoon, but it as previouslong administrations have had. stunning to see the president-elect name a native american as secretary of interior. for our international audience, the symbolism of this leaves one speechless. really extraordinary. shocked atg to be as something larger, the attorney general?
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marty: i think the interior secretary is hugely important from an economic standpoint. they control mining and forestry and federal lands across the country. so it is an extremely important and symbolic pick. , then terms of policy attorney general choice is going to be key. the two frontrunners we hear are .oug jones and merritt garland both have attributes that will be in strong contrast to the attorney general. francine: what can joe biden do on cybersecurity? it is absolutely incredible to see the cyberattack that has been reported through sources across u.s. government agencies by supposedly russia. it is truly extraordinary, and it is a real question what joe biden will do. it is also interesting to see what donald trump is going to do in the last 30 days of his
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administration, if anything. he has displayed a reluctance to take on russia. whether that will be the case is something we should really look at. i also keep thinking about whether or not, what are the policies is.ack it is really a very complicated issue on how you retaliate. francine: i want to ask you about pardons, but maybe i will ask about china first. we are also hearing that there could be another 12, if not more, chinese companies blacklisted by the trump administration. is that really to box in the next administration? others haved reported that donald trump has essentially told his administration you can do whatever you want to china short of declaring war in the waning days of his presidency. will it box in joe biden?
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it will make it more difficult for him to relax those we stitch in's without looking weak on china. so yeah, it will talk his hands -- it will tie his hands somewhat when he becomes president. tom: thank you very much. greatly appreciate it. coming up, this is going to be an important conversation. in all the news flow, we forget where the mass of the pandemic is, and it is grim. that is with david westin at the 12:00 noon hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form
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,"m: "bloomberg surveillance from new york, from london. red and green on the screen. markets can change on a dime, with a lot of uncertainty out there on brexit, stimulus, and a number of other topics as well. rebecca patterson joins now, with bridgewater, director of investment research. i've got to go to your claim which is dollar -- era claim which is dollar -- your claim, which is dollar analysis -- your acclaim, which is dollar analysis. what will the response toward stronger dollar be? how will they respond to the ever weaker dollar? rebecca: good morning. great to be here with you. as we think about currencies right now in this environment, basically almost every
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government around the world would prefer a weaker currency, including the u.s.. the fed has made it tear it wants to get inflation back up to and beyond its 2% target. so as the fed puts a lot of liquidity in the system and keeps rates low, that has been weighing on the dollar, particularly since the spring. i think that is the likely path going forward. but it is a zero-sum game, so as the dollar goes down, everything else is getting pressured up, and wants that. we have seen some verbal shots across the bow and europe. we have seen some intervention in some asian economies, thailand and taiwan. not everyone can win if they are all trying to push their currencies down at once. i think that is going to be one of the ways we see differentiation in the markets is that relative currency weakness. we are also seeing that currency weakness in expectations of more of it or efforts to try to get more of it feeding into other
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store holds of wealth. in gold, we are seeing inflation expectations start to go higher in the u.s. off the back of expected dollar weakness, in part i believe. even things like bitcoin, somewhat argue that is a reelection of expectations for currencies continuing to weaken. tom: you brought it up, i didn't. don't give me this ray dalio line, you are not going to give me an honest answer. bridgewater in bitcoin. how long is long? 400,000, as -- can it go to $400,000, as mr. arises -- mr. minerd theorizes? rebecca: for institutional investors looking for stable store holds of wealth, do you want and asset that collapses the way it did in 2018, and has the type of appreciation it had this year?
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i think the volatility of bitcoin and the lack of liquidity, although it is evolving quickly, could be a concern for some investors. what is really interesting to me about it, and i am not trying to dodge the question, but i thing this is really important for your viewers to understand, is how the development and the quick evolution of cryptocurrencies is forcing central banks to think a lot harder and faster about their own sovereign cryptocurrencies or citro -- or central bank cryptocurrencies. we are seeing a lot of different central banks now creating sandboxes to play with it in places like singapore, even the bahamas earlier this year dollar."its own "sand i think this will continue. it will be really interesting when janet yellen becomes treasury secretary to see her stance on this. what she has said so far on cryptocurrencies is she is also a little skeptical just given
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the regulatory backdrop and the lack of stability so far. so i think what happens in the u.s. from a regulatory point of view is going to matter a lot for these currencies as we look to 2021. what is going to be the u.s. government's stance on them? i don't own any myself, but it is something i am following a very carefully, as is bridgewater, because we want to see when this will evolve and how it could make sense for institutional investors. francine: what it ever actually replace gold? is this gold 2.0? rebecca: a lot of people are pointing to that because of the relatively similar supply dynamics certain cryptocurrencies like bitcoin hold. but it is liquidity, it is ease-of-use, it is stability. i think some cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are starting to check those boxes, but certainly
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they don't check all of them yet. but there are things where cryptocurrencies might be more useful than something like gold in terms of having the ability to transact in it around the world. obviously a little harder to take a bar of gold with you as you travel around the world. i don't think the analogy is quite there yet, but it is certainly something we are spending a lot of time researching. tom: rebecca patterson with us, in charge of bitcoin analysis at bridgewater. we will come back with rebecca patterson if she is kind enough to stay around. we will be bitcoin free in our next section with her. coming up, "the open." mohamed el-erian, bloomberg opinion columnist. slight green on the screen. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress?
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tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone, from new york and from london. arts, fromfrom the the stunning success of taylor swift putting out not one, but two -- but two albums. we talk about how orchestras are adapting to this pandemic. the two orchestras of boston, the boston symphony orchestra and the boston pops.
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look at the takes a challenges these symphonies face. ♪ janet: the orchestra is an art form with no personal face. musicians perform shoulder to shoulder to synchronize is one -- to synchronize as one. the boston symphony orchestra immediately canceled its season. may be thecandidly largest audience, along with los angeles. . so in the course of a year, we've lost about $50 million in ticket sales and other income. janet: how does an orchestra perform when there is no room for social distancing? here at boston 70 hall, they more than doubled the size of the stage. >> we have taken a 2400 square-foot stage and made it close to 6000 square-foot stage. all of the string players are six feet apart. the brass section is basically
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in a different zip code from the strings. everyone has made the appropriate adjustments and we are making music again. janet: all of this is possible ago, the00 years creator of the orchestra had the foresight to build the auditorium with movable seats. >> one of the great ironies as we are reaching more people than we have ever reached. online.erformances went >> we are touching more lives with music than we ever have before. six continents, 88 countries. so we are able to for ville our mission -- to fulfill our mission. the dallas symphony orchestra also got creative. outside, 90 concerts
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chamber musicians all around dallas, on streets, driveways, cul-de-sacs, parks. janet: an indoor concert was just 42 musicians, the audience capped at 150 and a hall built for 1800. >> people would shout thank you to the orchestra as they were getting off the stage, which was just so poignant. janet: the silver lining is that someone with tickets all the way up here can now get this close to the musicians. >> you get angles, you get good perspectives that you can't have at a normal concert. aret: the bso and dso determined to come back, knowing that music is more important than ever. in boston, janet wu, bloomberg news. tom: this has been extorting a this year. janet wu there with the challenge of the two orchestras. i want to do a massive shout out
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to gramophone magazine out of london. it has provided huge leadership for the classical community during this pandemic, and the past making of the berlin philharmonic. they are the ones that invented digital classical music. francine: i don't think we speak enough about the arts. there's really uproar here in london, which was considered the cultural capital in europe, and the fact that in the pandemic, the government has just not looked after the arts enough, with support for artists and productions. i think we will see a big shift in where culture will go from now in the next 24 months. tom: look for the dallas symphony and the boston symphony with bloomberg this week. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ ♪ tom: good morning on a friday.
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what does francine lacqua demand? a good chart. one of them we talked about this week was canada, which is dollar canada, which is looney. it moved big figures. something we have been talking to rebecca patterson about, bridgewater director of investment research. how does canadian loony big figures, six standard deviations , how does that fit into equity now analysis or interest parity analysis? rebecca: tom, you are always fun at 6:00 a.m., aren't you? tom: i try. francine: only on fridays, rebecca. rebecca: i think it is really important you bread up currencies. 70 people when they are thinking about their portfolios come a thing about their stock and bond allocation or what kind of exposure they want, most investors don't hedge currency
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risk. so your return is really going to be the equity in the currency. you do need to think about both. i thing a lot of folks are afraid of currencies, so they say they will worry about the equity. i think as we go into 2021, making sure you are looking at both attributes of your portfolio, the currency as well as what another country are holding, is going to be particularly important. as we get different paces of s, differentpening sizes of stimulus, all of those things are going to affect your total return through the currency. i think there will be a lot of differentiation next year. even this year, look at the chinese renminbi up about 6% against the dollar, and that possibly could continue. i think you mentioned this morning about chinese monetary policy looking fairly steady next year while everyone else is trying to ease further.
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switch gears to parity strategies, derivatives brategies matching a against to squeeze out a little bit of the gain. what do you learn about parity strategies with real rates where they are? rebecca: so many investors around the world are grappling with what do you do with bonds in your portfolio in terms of having different types of assets and using them for diversification, for returns, etc. a lot of developed market bonds in particular aren't very attractive at this point. so what do you do? i think the good news is there are a lot of options. the strategies we run never depend on one asset. we are looking for a balance of assets that will perform well. but in a zero rate world, i think you have options, whether you're looking at gold or inflation linked bonds,
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especially in a world where the fed has tried to push real yields down in inflation up. i think you can even look within the equity market to companies with stable cash flows, was companies that are more resilient, for example, and to be able to take some of those equities and engineer them in such a way that you can get something that, while certainly not a substitute for bonds, can be a complement to your portfolio. i think one thing we have learned this year, and obviously this is research that started years and years ago, but the pandemic made us double down our focus, is making sure there are an ample portfolio of assets that can provide that diversification to ability and still help us get our return. francine: what is the first to do on janet yellen's list? rebecca: that is a good one. is such aen i think right person at the right time in that she has been at the
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council of economic advisers, so she has been in the white house. she's been chair of the fed, now treasury. we are in a world where we believe auditory and fiscal policy have to be much more closely aligned. the fact that she understands how the fed works inside out and can really bring those two bodies together to make sure the fed can facilitate the budget deficits we need, the fed needs to keep printing. we expect qe is going to be running in the markets disc cap in about 7% of gdp over the next year or two at least before tapering begins. they are going to facilitate the large budget deficits by keeping interest rates low. i think janet yellen is going to be part of the team trying to make sure we have enough fiscal support to bridge the gap until the vaccine can allow a real reopening of the economy. that is a couple quarters away, and even then, we are in one of the lights at the end of the tunnel, or silver linings to this horrible year, is that with interest rates so low, debt service costs so low, it is time
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to think about investments in the economy that can increase productivity growth in the years to come, so things like infrastructure, education, research and develop it. the hurdle for those things to be additive for the economy, both short and longer term, is pretty low. i would think that janet yellen, one of the things she will be doing is working with the rest of the administration and congress to try to see what they can get done on that front. francine: just because she knows the fed intimately, is it less likely that we have some kind of policy mistake because the channel of communication will be open in 2021? rebecca: i certainly think that is helpful. i wouldn't want to go on the record saying there would never be a policy mistake in washington is at the end of the day, we are humans, and there are a lot of humans running around in washington, but i think the fact that she knows both parts of the policy spectrum, monetary and fiscal,
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coordination in a world where that has to happen. if you are in london right now, we are looking at some kind of brexit deal hopefully in the next few days, whether it is a free-trade agreement or a crash out, but here we are looking at 2021, and the chancellor of the exchequer is still talking about possible fiscal tightening next year, and that to me is a little concerning because if you have monetary trying to get the inflation rate up, and fiscal going the other way, that could be something that slows down the recovery in the u.k. vis-a-vis other countries. part of the differentiation we expect to see is really driven by fiscal policy stances. francine: thank you so much, reckitt patterson -- rebecca patterson. let's get straight to the first word news. here's ritika gupta. ritika: a panel food and drug and ministries and advisors has
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agreed the benefit of modernist advisorsdministration has agreed that the benefits of a modern vaccine outweighs the potential risks. greater los angeles is now the hardest hit metropolitan area when it comes to the coronavirus. los angeles county has an average 1100 daily cases per one million residents. neighboring san bernardino has 400. recently, rural areas have been hit the hardest. getting a better view of just how large the cyber by suspected russian hackers is. risk topresent a grave federal, state, and local governments. and to the private sector as well. microsoft says systems were
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exposed to malware, and bloomberg has learned that at least three state governments were hacked. so was the u.s. nuclear weapons agency. joe biden says efforts to use his son's problems against him i'm up to foul play. he told a cbs late show he is not concerned by accusations made against his son. hunter biden is subject of a federal investigation into his tax matters, and republicans have called for a special counsel investigation into his foreign dealings. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ritika, thanks so much. coming up with maria tadeo, the ectleman from latvia, executive vice president and trade commissioner. he has an important perspective
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from eastern europe on the brexit negotiations. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪
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ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." coming up later today, and expose have interview with -- an exclusive interview with mangrove cio. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it the moment of truth. we have very little time remaining, just a few hours to work through these negotiations in a useful fashion if we want this agreement to enter into force on january 1. tom: it is interesting. you can get out the calendar, as mr. barnier is doing in europe. but on the brexit debate, it just continues, but there is the calendar. maria tadeo knows the calendar. she is in brussels and knows that december 31 beckons.
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maria? maria: thank you so much, tom. we are joined by the european union executive vice president valdis dombrovskis, who focuses on trade. i want to ask you about china. there's a lot of speculation that you at the european union and china are going to sign a new trade arrangement before the end of the year. is that the case? workingwell, we are with china on comprehensive agreement on investment, and indeed what is in very advanced stages. we have a very productive last round of negotiations. i will say we are not quite there yet, but it is definitely feasible as these things move forward as they are moving now. maria: so if you can get it done in the next two weeks, after you sign it, is that going to
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guarantee that you have more market access in china? valdis: well, yes. we are concentrating on level playing field issues. force technology transfers, transparency of subsidies, and also about market access, so how european companies can better access china's market. of course, also some market access offering on our side. to break down the relationship china because currently, europe is substantially more open to chinese investments than china is to eu. maria: and that could happen in the next two weeks. let's also talk about the u.s., just to put this aside. there is still pending litigation.
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do use for see a situation where you left completely on the tariffs? we expect a deal entering into force, so this is oneed a tariff agreement targeted tariff reductions. managed to bring this deal so a successful conclusion. of course, there are a number of things where we need to deal with the u.s. bilaterally concerning tariffs and addressing certain problems. i would mention, for example, steel and aluminum tariffs, the airbus/boeing dispute, and we will need to see how we cooperate in the context of wto reform, in the context of multilateral, rules-based cooperation. maria: are you relieved that joe biden is going to into the white
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house and start the new year? valdis: indeed, the european commission has published a publication on a fresh start of transatlantic relationship, and it is an important part on trade. the first signals which president-elect biden is sending in terms of his commitment to multilateralism, his commitment to improve relations with the eu , are very encouraging, so we are going to build on that basis . --maria:ow confident how confident are you that we will see a deal before the end of the year? valdis: we are in last-minute negotiations, so there is progress. there are still important gaps which need to be fulfilled, but all of the things
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are worked through, so now it is a question of political will for this last-minute push to address the cult questions and to make compromises. parliamenteuropean says if they don't get text by sunday, they will not vote on it this month. that means potentially, we had into a situation where the leaders agree on a deal that is not ratified. that is very problematic. valdis: that is why it is important to engage very closely with the european parliament it is time for parliament re-scrutiny of the deal that is extremely -- parliament tree -- parliamentary scrutiny of the deal that is extremely compressed. we need the european parliament to see when really is the last moment we can submit the text of
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the agreement so that we can verify it still this year and enter it into effect next year. maria: just briefly, what happens if there is a deal on the leaders level, but it is not ratified? do you perhaps see that for one or two weeks, you will trade on wto terms? valdis: that of course would be a very unfortunate situation if there is a deal that is not ratified. to behink now we have engaged with the european parliament and find when we need to finalize the conversations so that things can still be ratified. i would say there are big technical questions which require a lot of time to address. it is all done. now it is really about political decisions and addressing some of the difficult ones in the conversation to get it over the line. roski's -- a stump
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valdis dombrovskis, thank you for joining us. francine: thank you so much. let's get to some breaking news. the u.s., according to the treasury secretary, will blacklist chinese firms including smic. not the treasury secretary, but the commerce secretary. wilbur ross is speaking with fox news ring a. he says the administration could change the number of firms blacklisted by the u.s., but just seconds ago, confirmation of what was reported by reuters, that the u.s. has now dozens of companies in china. again, we understand through our reporting that donald trump is set to add around 60 more companies and their affiliates to the commerce department
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entity list. the majority are chinese and will join the likes of huawei, basically denied access from u.s. technology. this could have a huge impact on smic. already, the share price was down this morning on that report, and that is just confirmed by wilbur ross. theng up, we track ,oronavirus with andrew pekosz john's hopkins. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." as we continue to track the virus, bloomberg has developed a partnership with johns hopkins, at the forefront of the international response. every day we bring you insights from public health and emergency. miss. joining us is entered -- and emergency preparedness. joining us is andrew pekosz. professor, thank you for joining us.
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what will the holiday look like for people on the front line? andrew: case numbers continue to increase across the u.s. what that means is that health-care workers on the front are are going to -- going to need to spend a lot of on the front line instead of with their families. it is import to understand that it is the human power that is important at hospitals. it is not just the number of beds occupied. it is how many people are available to take care of those individuals that are sick. this pandemic has taken a real told on health care workers in terms of them getting sick and how much stress they have endured to deal with all of the severe cases coming through. francine: when you look at the role of vaccines, is it going according to plan? i know there are concerns about
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certain people reacting, but overall, are you satisfied? andrew: yes, this is now going to be a logistics problem, although safety monitoring is going to continue to go forward. let's touch on that first. this is an emergency use authorization, so we are going to continue to monitor for safety and efficacy in individuals that are getting the vaccine because now we are going to see a larger number of people get the vaccine that any clinical trials. so safety and efficacy is still a primary concern and will be monitored. the flow of vaccine is always going to be a little bit variable. we are talking about production at a scale which companies have never had to do before. so you certainly should expect to see some variation in the number of doses coming through on a weekly basis. it will be even more complicated in three to four weeks when people come back for their booster doses. but these are logistics
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problems. people have been thinking about these problems, putting things in place for months now. we expect to see some speed bumps, but we don't expect roadblocks. i think the system is flexible enough to deal with some of those things as they come down the pipeline. francine: what can you tell us about the pace of vaccinations? if we go at a similar pace, how long will it take to vaccinate enough people in the u.s. to make sure we have heard immunity -- we have herd immunity? andrew: right now, it will be a little slow. i think we are banking on the fact that we have more vaccines coming to the market in the next couple of months. moderna is all set for their formal approval here in the united states. are moderna vaccine doses targeted for the united states. we expect down the line, as more vaccines come on board, that we
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will see these large jumps in the amount of vaccine doses that are available. it is important right now that the vaccination strategy is aimed at limiting severe cases. that is why we have targeted those populations first. then we will move to the regular population. francine: thank you so much, of johns hopkins. we are getting some breaking news out of lloyd's, that lloyds banking group has canceled all staff bonuses for 2020, according to "the ft." they say they have done so because of a sharp fall in profits because of the pandemic, saying they do not meet the criteria for payouts in 2020. that is the latest on lloyd's. this is bloomberg. ♪
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nar ertainly there is an argument to be made. you see possible numbers start to disappoint. the real yield hasn't gone up, another reason the fed price has impacted. it is difficult to latch onto. spending, people are the timing of that spend has really shifted. >> i see getting back to something close to normal in the second half of this year. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. the equity


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