tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg December 22, 2020 10:00am-11:00am EST
♪ london, 10:00 in a.m. in new york, 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. i'm guy johnson in london, with my coast in new york, kailey leinz -- my cohost in new york, kailey leinz. is off.el right now is&p 500 basically flat on the day. the only sector within the index that is higher is technology. eye on the dollar here, it is stronger for a second day. the bloomberg dollar spot index right around the highs of the session, stronger against everything in the g10 space. oil falling 1.3% for wti. virus related restrictions threatening to rebound demand. we do have some economic data crossing right now.
guy: let's talk about it and figure out what is going on here because it's a bit of a miss. this is the consumer confidence read coming way below expectations. 88.6. the previous number, 96.1. we came into this year in the mid one 30's, so -- the mid 130's. certainly the virus restrictions, the case count in america having an effect here. the present situation number coming in at 90.3. that is down from 105.9. things are certainly crumbling even in the present, and the expectations number is also looking a little bit weaker as well. you would have thought with the vaccine coming through that that number would have got a boost, and it is interesting the previous number on that expectation actually being revised lower. the theory of the revised number , we are higher, but nevertheless, certainly not surging in terms of our
expectation for where we see next you're going from a consumer point of view stateside. kailey: that confidence coming up well short of expectations. we also got existing home sales for the month of november, just shy of expectations, coming in at 6.6 9 million versus 6.7 million, down about 2.5% month on month. . consumer confidence numbers could soon get help from stimulus. congress finally passed its second biggest economic relief package after months of wrangling over the price tag and forms of support. the 900 billion dollar aid package includes $600 checks to most americans, extension of unemployment benefits through march, and nearly $300 billion for the paycheck protection program. joining us with more is dana peterson, conference board chief economist. -- obviouslycreate weaker consumer than's -- obviously weaker consumer confidence numbers today. dana: we are hopeful that it
will be quite helpful for consumers, and are confidence number just missed the first rolled out of the vaccine, so potentially when we see data after the vaccines, and after the stimulus package we will see somewhat better ratings. guy: how much damage has been done? we have been waiting for this relief bill for a very long time. how much damage has been done while washington haggled? dana: it is a little tough to enumerate, but certainly going back to the summertime, we had fiscal cliff and federal unemployment benefits expiring. many people were uncertain. they didn't see another check for support. that is all the things help contribute to an obvious slowing and consumption, which we saw in retail sales data. kailey: how do you expect this
next tranche of stimulus payments will be used. . is going to go -- will be used? is it going to go towards spending? dana: what we have seen this kind of a bifurcation that speaks to the k-shaped recovery, where households who did not experience an interruption in employment or income were more , according to a federal reserve survey, whereas people who did were more likely to spend that on things like goods, but even still overall, most people have been saving at least a portion of their support check. as you say, we are demographically fragmented. the k-shaped recovery is definitely evident in most of the data we are watching at the moment. i wonder how geographically fragmented the data are as well
in terms of what you are seeing around the country, how geographically fragmented is this story? seeinge are definitely in our confidence survey, when we look at different regions, certainly regions that had renewed shutdowns in activity and spikes in cases tend to be a little weaker in terms of confidence. areas that were a little less affected were not as negatively impacted in terms of confidence, so we are seeing some regional disparities here. kailey: you're seeing that show up in places like california and illinois, seeing an uptick in initial jobless filings as well. this stimulus package, the measures and it only last until march, so how much is this recovery going to be contingent on a more robust package coming under a biden adminstration in the next two months? dana: i think that what is really going to help stimulate the economy is getting people
back to work and reopening businesses, and what is going to be key for that is really how the vaccines are rolled out, and more importantly, if people adopt vaccine usage. certainly the fact that we have at least two vaccines that have been approved for use and we are starting to vaccinate people, we are hopeful that by the middle of next year, most of the u.s. population will have been vaccinated or at least will have access to a vaccine. that is really going to open up spending, especially of services. it is important that the federal government supports until we have widespread rollout of vaccines. it is really about confidence, people feeling it is ok to go back to work, go back to in person services, and certainly that governments also see it that way, they reopen these as mrs. and services that have been closed. guy: when that happens, how much pent-up demand do you think there really is? there are large portions of the population that are going to be saving this money, that are
worried about what happened next, but there's another portion of the demographic spectrum that are going to be spending this money. when we look into next year, savings rates are still relatively high. do you think a lot of people will run that savings rate down after they've had the vaccine, they will heal that is the all clear they can go out and start spending again? dana: it is also reflected in our forecast. we are looking for growth annualized north of 6% next year . a lot of that is linked to widespread availability of the vaccine, and people feeling comfortable about getting out there and potentially running the savings rate down lower. but if possible, the savings rate may still remain elevated because there is still going to be uncertainty. certainly we have seen that the virus can mutate, and there may be concerns about whether people can go back to activity, but again, we are hoping for the best, and that will show up
certainly in the second half of next year. theey: we were speaking to national federation of independent business had yesterday, and he said they are having a difficult time finding workers. i am wondering why you think that is, and what kind of cracks in the labor market that can point to. dana: sure. my guess is that you have many people who are still concerned about going outside and being involved in in person activities. procedural workers, a lot of it is going to be in retail and activities where you have to be in person, so i would imagine that the fear factor is still out there, and it is affecting whether or not people want to go out and be engaged. so again, it is really about that vaccine being available. dana, have a happy holiday. thank you for your time today.
greatly appreciate it. dana peterson, conference for chief economist. we will talk about the market perspective in just a moment. we will get some insight into what is happening with the currency markets. mark mccormick is going to be joining us. we will talk about michel barnier briefing reporters, giving brexit talks a final push. this is the critical moment. i think we've heard that before, though. this is bloomberg. ♪
regular government funding and tax breaks for businesses. presidente aides say trump will sign the bill into law. it includes $900 billion in economic relief, the second largest such measure in u.s. history. most americans will get a one-time payment of $600, plus enhanced jobless benefits will be extended. it is another setback in post-brexit trade talks. the european union has we ejected the uk's latest offer on fishing rights. the u.k. proposed that the eu reduce the amount of fishing catches in british waters by about 1/3. last week, the u.k. insisted on a 60% cut. meanwhile, the european commission is calling on member states to reopen critical trade and passenger transport leaks to the u.k., while discouraging non-essential travel. the commission says any unnecessary journeys should be avoided until further notice. the british government is trying to reopen a trade route to france after days of cross
channel political bartering failed to end the chaos at the uk's busiest port. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. thank you very much, indeed. let's get the latest on brexit as the dispute over fishing rights continues to block a deal. just moments ago, we caught up with the eu's michel barnier in brussels. >> we are really in a crucial are giving it a final push. in 10 days, the u.k. will leave the single market, and we've got to work in total transparency with the member states right now and with the parliament.
guy: apparently, still no agreement on fisheries in the brexit talks. joining us from toronto, mark mccormick, td securities head of global fx strategy. the market is pricing a lot of volatility into the pound. hedging costs are pretty high. is it worth taking a position, given that we are so close to the deadline? mark: it is really not in these illiquid markets. it is probably not that useful to think of you. you want to think about what happens after brexit in terms of thinking about how does the cyclical story play out in u.k., how does this impact growth. the bank ofhe about england potentially going negative with interest rates. for me, even if there is a brexit deal, there's not a great fundamental store where you want to be long cable, so i do think right now, markets are going to sit on the sidelines. but even as we move past this theme that we want to trade, it is not a great way to think about whether or not the pound is actually going to move higher off the back of it.
kailey: how much do you think the moves in the past two days are related to the fact that we are seeing this sudden bout of dollar strength, and how much is it brexit specific? mark: i think it is a mix of both. i thing it is mostly about dollar strength. the pound is underperforming because of these idiosyncratic events. obviously you've got the lockdowns, which policy makers have suggested it might extend until april for the u.k., see you're doing with really slow growth trends, particularly in europe coming into the start of 2021, and now you have what are rekindling of tail risks around brexit, which even a month ago wasn't really on the radar screen. say, a is, i would dollar move. we see the potential for a drawdown in risk assets which i thing has been in play for about a month now, especially when you think about the realities of mobility, the reality of where we are lucky to see a double debt in q4 and into 2021.
there's too much optimism being priced in off of the vaccine story, so again, you take what is happening in the u.k., it is going to make sure that the pound underperforms relative to the euro, but this is a broader dollar move largely because of the connection to risk assets. guy: if we were to see a countertrend rally that pushes higher, how far could that take us? mark: it's a great question. i think the magnitude is really interesting to think about because you have to understand how much overvaluation there is in the market. one thing we have been trying to articulate to clients as we start the year is this is obviously the start of a trend. currency traders love to find momentum and push it, but anything about all of the factors that drive currency markets, the dollar is trading at about a 3% discount in broad terms, so to me that is a good point to start to think about a
countertrend pullback in risk assets, or at least a rally in the u.s. dollar. if you want to think about central bank policy, mobility, economic data, lockdowns, the global central bank balance sheet is partly what is driving risk assets. we know global central banks are still adding qe. but if you go to currency specific trends, ecb now has a larger growth in its balance sheet relative to the fed. if you are just trading currencies on the balance sheet which chicks planes may be about 1/3 of the movements right now, but you are focused on the global growth story which is a bigger driver, if we see the markets care more about the macro of the growth and less about the central banks, this is where euro peaks right around $1.22, but i would say this is the top end of the range as we start the year, with $1.19 probably being the bottom. so probably about a 3% move if we see this were versatile. -- if we see this reversal. kailey: i want to go back to
what you are saying about overvalued risk assets. they seem to have already priced in the $900 fiscal package we just got. they seem to have already priced into a large extent the deploying of a vaccine. so what is next now that we have those two things? what is the catalyst? mark: i think that is a good point because what we have been saying, this is kind of like a cognitive dissonance trade, where all of the good news gets priced in, all of the bad news gets ignored. i think as we start the year, we may start to see data surprises turned negative. the positive vaccine news, all of these things have been baked into risk assets, but we have seen a pickup in data. as we see a pick in data, we see economists and the consensus of the markets move up their expectations, so the bar becomes higher for data to do better the next time around. one of the major concerns is just the vaccine rollout itself. they disturb you should challenges we could have. i think expectations from the market is probably maybe by q2,
you have about 1/3 of the country, so that is not anywhere close to herd immunity, but i think the major concern is really if data starts to turn, we start to see worsening realities in terms of lockdown, if you get a hard brexit, that is another catalyst. i think there's more negative catalysts that can take over the narrative versus the positive ones that are already fully priced in. that is what our model tells us. the dollar is cheap, risk assets should be a little bit lower. kailey: mark mccormick, duty securities -- mark mccormick, td securities, thank you. apple is said to be planning to make its own electric car as early as 2024. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
kailey: apple could be stepping into the car business. the iphone maker is said to be targeting 2024 to produce a self-driving car that would feature its own battery technology, according to a reuters report. earlier this month, bloomberg reported apple had been working on an autonomous system deciding whether to attach it to its own car or a partner with another carmaker. the seniorin tech analyst for bloomberg intelligence. this is a low-margin business. what is your take? reporter: i think this is a bad idea. good morning. thank you for having me. for apple to engage in a market, i think there have to be three characteristics to the market. it needs to be large, it needs to be profitable. all of these vectors for apple take on sizable meetings just given the size of their business. so if you look at the car
4.5 million are units a year. average 30 miles a day from a car perspective. we use our phones four hours a day. so if you look at the existing market we have, we sell 200 million units in iphone terms, , 29 millionacs watches, and 101 million headphones. we have 55 billion services revenue. apple wants to engage in ev cars.logy, self driving that is fantastic. but please engage in the cap algae -- in the technology, not the car. we don't want to reinvent the wheel here. i don't think apple should .ngage
i just don't think they are particularly attractive. if they don't want to get into the car building business, who would be an obvious partner? reporter: there's two different strategies here. one is you partner with an existing carmaker so they had the technology, they have the regulatory process, and an assembly line to get a product on the road, and then you overlay that with your technology. so it could be any of the traditional carmakers, and you would set up a separate line with apple technology infusion. the other opportunity is foxconn up anlked about setting ev line, so you can start from scratch and do that. i think the challenges in the latter would be more significant relative to the former, but again, there's pros and cons of each of those opportunities. but i think trying to build a
would be, andch -- mind, a strategic kailey: how do you think regulators would respond to some thing like that coming from apple? reporter: in certain elements from an iphone perspective, they produce a lot of electronic devices, so there are some regulatory hurdles they have to go through, but the auto industry has a significant higher bar from a safety perspective. i think they would look at it favorably, but at the same time, they are not going to give any freebies to apple or change the bar any for apple. if anything, from a consumer expectation standpoint, the asp would be much higher. people would want more in an apple car. i certainly would. guy: they've got $190 billion in cash. what are they going to do with it if they are not going to do this with it? reporter: that is a fantastic
question. buybacks are one ago they can look at. we have to look at markets that don't exist yet, and i think that is what made the iphone such a huge success. if we are thinking about traditional markets, that may not be the answer. they have to look at markets that don't exist yet. that is a much tougher nut to crack. guy: absolutely. nice to have the financial power to at least look at it. thank you very much, indeed. always appreciate the insight. up next, it has been an incredible year for ipo's given the backdrop. we are going to talk about what happens in 2021. how many more unicorns are going to be going public? we are talking to a professor who tracks ipo's. jane ritter of the university of florida is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
new york. this is "bloomberg markets." the ipo market has been red-hot this year, with issuance at a record, and investors generally winning on newly made public companies. bloomberg's sonali basak is here to dig into all of the details. sonali: absolutely. if you look at the issuance, you will see just how much it has been skyrocketing, at over $150 billion of issuance in the u.s. alone. when you look at the global number, it is almost four times as much. it is not only because of just bigger listings. remember, doordash, airbnb raised more than $3 billion each. over $1 billion have performed very well, meaning more companies have been encouraged to go public. but it is not just the big, traditional ipo's. you also have a number of spac's going public, raising more on average. you also see more spac's.
investors across the industry you will -- industry say you will see more ipo's next year. the big worry about the market here is companies that raise too spac's have a risk of not doing deals that are good enough. we will be watching the performance varies and can lay. the ipo's have rallied much more than the s&p. you are seeing a massive soar here in the renaissance ipo etf come away above the s&p 500, way above the nasdaq. really is in line with that investors search for yield, that gross trade that you have been seeing do well all year, and again, investors expect this to continue. it is largely tech names doing well. big companies, big ipo's doing well, but companies that have been able to raise rescue ,inancing, even in hard times
like airbnb come with the biggest first day pop for a company ever over $1 billion, but there are a lot of risks --t could upset that r that rally. kailey: the numbers truly are a markable. thank you so much. bloomberg's emily chang was speaking to airbnb's ceo when shares were indicated that $139. when she broke that news for him, he was at a loss for word. >> shares indicated right now to open at $139 a share, more than double what you priced at. i mean, are you at all concerned about froth? what do you think about that number and the potential that you are leaving billions of dollars on the table? >> that is the first time i've heard that number. in april, you know, we raised money with debt financing. that price would have priced us
around $30. so i don't know what else to say. that is -- yeah, i'm very humbled by it. kailey: that right there is what speechless looks like. let's get more on the ipo market now. ritter, -- jay university of florida scholar, joins us now. this is a phenomenon we have seen play out time and again this year, and that is that these ipo's price at one level, open sometimes double that level. is the ipo process broken? jay: it hasn't worked perfectly for many years, but this past year it has worked particularly badly in terms of extreme price run ups. not every company going public does jump in price. indeed, 19% of the companies this past year actually fell on the first day of trading. so it hasn't been across the
board, but underwriters have had difficulty getting the price right. airbnb is an extreme example. some of it might just be the inability to judge retail demand. let's pick up on that. how price-sensitive do you think that retail demand is? people want to latch onto the next shiny thing, and this year it has been stocks like airbnb and doordash. does it matter what the price is, as long as you get your allocation? jay: people certainly anchor on the offer price, retail investors in particular. airbnb, a company like the price shot up dramatically to a really high valuation. but some other companies that were not household names like
snowflake also more than doubled in the first day of trading. theink it is not only robinhood crowd that is pouring also some cases, but you've got individual investors pouring money into mutual funds and etf's that have been doing well. a couple of minutes ago, you showed how the renaissance capital etf was doing so well this year. money has poured into that. they've got more than 10 times as much assets under management now as they had at the start of the year, and they have to invest that in ipo's. kailey: i just want to point out what we are seeing on the screen here. dr. anthony fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the united states, is right now getting his covid-19 vaccine. we just watch health and human services secretary alex azar getting his.
now dr. anthony fauci getting his as well as the vaccine rollup continues. 80thurse, dr. fauci's birthday is coming up on christmas eve. we heard sonali talking earlier about the sheer volume and offerings we have seen this year. 2021?t continues in jay: i think we will continue to see a lot of ipo activity as long as the stock market holds up. the tech companies have gotten a lot of attention, but last year had a record number of biotech companies going public. 76 biotech companies went public last year, and this was the where year in a row 40% ofs have been about the operating companies going public. i would fully expect the
pipeline of startup biotech companies tapping the public capital markets to continue. guy: your timing is perfect. just as we watched anthony fauci getting his shot. the other big phenomenon this , an has been spac's incredibly hot space this year. how do you see 2021 unfolding? do you think the market is going to cool a little bit, and do you worry that some of these will ultimately have to return money to investors? jay: as was just pointed out on the screen, 243 spac's went public this year, more than three times the number of any previous year. i expect that will slow down, but remain at elevated levels. i do have some concerns with so s now hunting for
operating companies to acquire. that is going to increase the bargaining power of the operating companies and make it to do a dealspac that is attracted to this back -- to the spac shareholders in terms of acquiring the company at a reasonable price. kailey: why do think profitability hasn't mattered? some 80% of companies that went public this year have not been profitable. jay: well, none of the spac's are profitable. they don't have any revenue. but for the biotech ipo's, 95% of them have no profits. the majority of them don't even have any revenue, and those that have revenue, it is typically from a research contract rather than product sales. biotechs are a situation where investors know that their funding -- know that they are funding r&d with the possibility of a big payoff if that works out with a
commercially viable drug discovered come over the company's most leslie to be bought at a big premium by a big part -- a big pharmaceutical company. companies, and particular tech companies, most of them are unprofitable, and that is because investors are focusing on growth and future profitability. we frequently hear, for decades we've heard about investors being too short-term focused and forcing companies to worry about quarterly earnings management, but when you look at the ipo market, it's just not true. investors are telling companies we don't care about your quarterly profits. we care about that future potential. now, that is not true for every company. if you've got a mature restaurant chain, if you are not making money now, when are you going to make money?
but for a lot of companies going public, especially in the tech investors are definitely focused on the long run. guy: one final quick question. delayed companies have entering the public markets. they have been spending a lot of time in the private markets. using this year has tilted the balance back in favor of joining the public markets? jay: we still had a huge amount of money pouring into venture capital funds, so the isilability of money there just as big as it has been in recent years. indeed, even with a lot of unicorns going public this year, venture capital funds did more equity financing of startups than public markets did.
time fora great successful young companies in both private markets and public markets that are willing to offer equity capital at pretty attractive terms. majority ofhe vast successful startups for the last 20 years, actually the last 25 years, have not done public. instead, they have sold out in trade sales. i expect that to continue. although it is definitely the case that some successful companies will grow bigger and then grow public -- and then go public. guy: i guess large tech companies are now going to find a few restrictions on some of those purchases. jay, thank you very much indeed. jay ritter of the university of florida talking about the ipo market. in the next hour, we will have combine theany to
in texas, coronavirus hospitalizations surpassed 10,000 for the first time in five months. the second largest state in the u.s. is struggling with the latest wave of infections. s -- thealf of texas' u.k. is trying to reopen trade routes to france after a day of chaos. the french shut down freight traffic from dover because of fear of a fast spreading mutant of the coronavirus. led to a lockdown of areas around paris. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. thank you very much, indeed. even with that stimulus package in the hope it is going to bring for small businesses, some companies are likely to be in
for more pain. ceo spokeital group's to tom keene and lisa abramowicz a little bit earlier. >> you are seeing that there are problems in a number of places, but there's also growth. for us, really what we are finding is opportunity where we can invest in situations where people need capital, and we are providing that capital, but we are doing it at a pretty steep price. guy: when you clear a balance sheet -- tom: when you clear a balance sheet out, you are now complying with the fed at the zero bound. has the fed distorted your part of the hedge fund world? >> it actually has. it has made it easier for companies to borrow money, so anybody who can borrow is doing so. but then what it's done is the reserve -- is the reverse. if you can't borrow, you've got
to deal with folks like me. if you are doing that, we are able to charge 12%, 15%. we are still charging 12% to 15%. i do wonder, when you look at distressed investing going forward, how much of this is simply who knows bankruptcy law best? you did clerk for a bankruptcy judge in the southern district of new york. is that really what this game has become? >> i think you've got to understand bankruptcy law because what ends up happening now is you are going to have a number of restructurings, but i would tell you the most important part today is really understanding the balance sheet of a company. if we are going to lend, are we super secured? where are we in the capital structure? things can change on a dime, and you want to make sure you are covered. capital structure is going to be a little bit more important, but you better have that legal background.
isa: embedded in this perhaps the presumption that recoveries are not going to be as robust this time around, given how much debt has been incurred and given some of the erosion with some of the covenant light loans we have seen. how much lower will recoveries be, and how much fiercer will the battle be over who gets what? marc: i think recoveries will definitely be lower. i think fights are going to be absolutely insane because everybody is going to be fighting over a smaller pie. focus is really where are you in the capital structure, but you are going to have lower recoveries. it is hard for you not to because people have taken on more debt, and they are's less likely to be value there -- and there's less lightly to be value there. tom: i've got a horde of people that want to know if you can bring the glory of oscar
robertson and the milwaukee bucks back. what is the plan forward after signing this gentleman for a million dollars? s' plan intobuck 2021 in the nba bubble? marc: the plan is simple, to try to win a championship. the execution of that plan is going to be hard. we are going to do everything we can, and i think we've got three, which ig think is second to none, at least in the east. i think we will have a pretty good shot. i think everybody is pretty excited. i think the hard part was really --signing yana's pop re-signing giannis. it is great for our team. ry,ley: that was marc las
avenue capital chairman and ceo, earlier today. a wide-ranging conversation, from the bucks to bankruptcy. bloomberg has a great story out on this today. so far in december, 16 companies have filed for bankruptcy, the worst december since all the way back in 2011, and since the start of the fourth quarter, 44 companies worth more than $50 million have filed. that is the worst for any fourth quarter since 2009. they just keep coming. guy: and i suspect that 2021 is going to be a very difficult year for bankruptcies. we know there has been significant support to try and keep business is going, to try and build that bridge, but nevertheless, the economics could change for a lot of businesses, and the latest round of aid has come quite slowly. that is only going to further exacerbate some of the problems we are finding here. it is going to be really tough. 2021 is going to be a really difficult year. i sense is that these bankruptcies are going to be
spread out over a much longer time, but mark was talking about a recovery that is lightly to be very low. we went into this with a lot of covenant light debt, and i think that is going to be a sick the contractor in terms of recoveries next year. kailey: the question now is what is the next domino to fall. of course, we speak of the aid package that we finally have gotten after months, 284 billion dollars of loans going to small businesses. is that going to be enough to see them through what could be a very dark enter, especially when we see so many parts of the country shifting back towards lockdown mode? we will have much more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
bloomberg business flash. fixed income traders at deutsche bank may get rewarded for a bumper year. the german lender may raise their bonuses by roughly 10%. the debt traders have kept ceo christian sewing's turnaround plan on track. retail and corporate traders are lightly to get smaller bonuses. the hollywood studio behind the james bond franchise reportedly is considering a sale. mgm hasg to dow jones, tapped investment banks morgan stanley and lantry to begin a formal process. betting that its value will remain attractive at about $5.5 billion. apple reported was to build a self-driving car for consumers by 2024. the company is developing its own technology that could reduce the cost and extend the vehicle's range. apple has been working on driverless car technology since 2014, but the company pared back its ambitions in 2017 and began focusing on the underlying
autonomous system. that is the latest business flash. kailey: thank you. it is time now for futures in focus. energy prices have been under pressure after a new covid variant was reported in the u.k., raising concerns that travel lockdown may expand. bloomberg's abigail doolittle has more. abigail: oil right now is doing something it has not done in eight weeks, and that is heading toward its first down week in eight weeks. take a look at crude oil futures over the last two days, down about 4% on that virus strain, fears that it is going to hurt the economy. you have this divergence with jet fuel prices. if you take a look at jet fuel premium to diesel, one way of looking at jet fuel prices, we are going to see a recovery at the highest level since the start of the pandemic. these are tsa check ins here in the u.s. this is pretty encouraging, at least relative to travel. if we go into the bloomberg terminal on a seasonal basis, that spread also known as
tegrade, we are a little bi below that, but that premium is starting to normalize, giving some folks, traders in particular, some hope. thank, indeed. interesting to see ultimately what happens coming up into 2021. what are we going to be talking about next? we are figuring out what is happening in the u.k.. we have an ongoing situation with the port of dover continuing to be blocked. we still don't know what the outcome of brexit is going to ultimately looks like. all of that on boris johnson's plate this afternoon. we will continue to update you on both of those stories. the european closes coming up next, with the food and drink federation ceo. ♪
guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. kailey leinz is in new york. alix steel has this week off. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." the eu calling on member states to restart trade and rail links with the u.k. ports remain shut. over 40 countries are restricting access to u.k. travelers. michel barnier has been briefing eu ambassadors over the last hour on brexit talks. he is said to have rejected the latest u.k. offer on fishing. we have just been hearing from him speaking to maria tadeo just a few minutes ago. a final push apparently is what is now being made, but