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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 23, 2020 5:00am-6:00am EST

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elseble bill orne -- or the next administration will have to deliver and may be that next administration will be me. it trump stuns nguyen and mcconnell with a gift for -- mnuchin and mcconnell with a gift for pelosi. he will not sign the bill. equities lift and micron blinks. macron blinks. lufthansa will airlift vegetables to london this week. a bloomberg surveillance from pointston, berlin, and in between. you take surveillance early to bed at 7:00 and you wake up on the edge of chaos. >> the headlines suggested the
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edge of chaos, but if you look --the markets, people are >> this was more than a last-minute tweet. we have so many stories. it was supposed to be quiet today. i have to start my christmas shopping. mcdonald's? is unreal, we have a team of people around the world. we have aof you, story in the united kingdom. washington is historically in chaos. you mentioned on twitter, corporate yields are at an all-time narrow. lisa: even if you have the threat of a suspension of the u.s. government amid the worst pandemic in a century -- tom: it will be an entertaining
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morning. >> president trump is signaling he may not find that massive --onavirus spending -- pass may not sign that massive coronavirus spending bill. he demanded congress increase $600 toulus checks from $2000. the president handed out pardons. parted andns was after pleading guilty in a securities fraud case. france has agreed to reopen its
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border with the u.k.. citizens able to show negative coronavirus tatts will will be able -- coronavirus tests will be able to travel. israel's coalition collapsed in seven months. netanyahu and the leader of the opposition enter the game wea kened. i am ritika gupta. quick data check -- not much going on in the markets. as you mentioned, lisette, equities lift -- lisa, equities lift. lisa: we are getting treasury
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yields flipping upwards. into cyclicals is still good even though we do not know what is happening with this fiscal support bill. of: if you are a student american history, i would encourage you to see the trump .ideo from last night it is a historical document for this nation. to amendsking congress this bill and increase the $2000.lously low $600 to i am asking congress to get rid of the unnecessary and wasteful items. tom: sorry, i was cut off. line item of everything he requested is inappropriate,
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foreign aid. what is the power of the presidency? will beis it interesting to watch because he on theng to weigh in side of the democrats. this being the most difficult deal to strike and almost on the eve of christmas, this is quite extraordinary. this is a president looking for friends. supportearly losing the of senate republicans who have recognized the election of vice president biden, so he is rubbing it strong. --is an interesting mood and interesting move and won his own
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hisle will not -- and one own people will not be expecting. tom: the parlor game of washington and what their response will be, can he get this done? -- can hetion actually pull off these requests? as good assts is mine. i would be surprised if he is able to pull this off. republicans made it clear they did not want to go higher on stimulus. nancy pelosi is all in. she will call a meeting to approve higher tax. it is difficult to imagine how republicans walk this back on such late notice leading up to
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christmas. lisa: this fiscal support bill inld give republicans a used the georgia contest. what does this do to that race? >> very difficult to predict. the first thing is people will one to see one way or another that i bill is passed that does not hold up unemployment benefits. passed, and not eviction on moratorium -- people want to see government working. who will be blamed if it doesn't? the republicans. the republicans are calling it out. are there some people who it may play out for them? they were already voting for republicans. that is not what people want to
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see. they would blame it more on the republicans. ofa: in the interest clarifying fact from fiction, trump was talking about foreign aid and a host of other measures within this bill. trillion bill. how much assessment, is truly waste versus necessary financing plus additional financial support in light of the pandemic? leslie: this is a complicated maneuver. linking stuff to the covid stimulus bill. what is waste has everything to do with where you sit in the american polity. to the president can legitimately from his perspective collapse or to things as waste because so
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much has been put into that package. tom: part of the term of this president from day one is clearly he does not understand the washington political system. for that matter -- it goes back to something as basic as core .nowledge in elementary school is this a question of presidential ignorance or is it a question of presidential shrewdness? leslie: neither. this is a president who does not care. he does not like what is happening right now. his own party has moved against him in his eyes by not continuing the fight against the legitimacy of the election results. and it is a out popular move. this is a populist president. barr outrney general
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-- does mr.used mnuchin resign over the actions of last evening? leslie: i suspect not. we will have to wait and see, but i think he will be having an interesting few hours trying to figure out how -- he does not strike me as the redesigning type. one never knows -- resigning type. one never knows. tom: if you are just joining us, the president with a bombshell last night in the 8:00 hour, a four-minute video simply saying the stimulus bill is unacceptable, a great assumption it will move markets. do we see that now? lisa: our kids are going up.
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-- markets are going up. tom: exactly. is agreed-upong now, you will get a democrat winning the georgia elections and a bigger bill that year. what is the damage done in between if there is not an earlier stopgap measure? gazillion, you add on 370 so i will call that 1.2 trillion plus. the president assumes we will cut programs, lisa. the first one he mentioned was aid to cambodia. he looked at all the pork in the bill and he wants to bring 1.2 trillion down. the: he was not part of negotiations at all. this came as a surprise to his
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own a. -- his own aides. tom: we have some wonderful guest lined up this morning. macron blinks is the headline for those watching the trucks backed up in dover. we will look at the pandemic, the virus. the fda commissioner is scheduled to be with us at the 8:00 hour. this is bloomberg. an extraordinary wednesday. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience.
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♪ --:
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to the it comes mandatory side of our mandate, crucial if we enter recovery next year that there is a laser because the mandate last thing the world needs right now is a nasty inflation surprise. was bank of england chief economist andy haldane. we have been watching the pound sterling as a harbinger of what may happen with brexit. today you are seeing strength. some people say do not even try to trade it, it is basically an emerging market currency. joining us now, head of g10 strategy. sterling.start with what is the main driver?
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is this just risk on risk off or proudly -- more broadly? >> good morning. i think it is a little bit of both. the pound has been positively correlated with -- i have to say. for aors continue to hope resolution of the exit drama. to in the various surveys we conducted to suggest the overwhelming majority of our clients expect reason to prevail and we have a frexit deal at the end of this year. the that point of view, pound is something we see in price action and something that will keep the currency
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supported. with all due respect, i read this headline this morning -- brexit deal hangs in the balance. it struck me as an evergreen headline. this could have been written two years ago. at what point is it a full's errand to tried this. change something with the same headline in contrast back to back? has --eems the market the stock market, i was highly -- in the options phase we do see demand. one way of describing that strategy is hope for the best, plan for the worst.
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i do believe that the majority of the investment community does potential deal, but risks are involved. continue --arkets it also means from a trading standpoint, a lot of positives are already in the price of the currency, meaning even if there is a deal, cable could search higher. chances are that this much will already be in the price. ultimately thet rally will run out of steam. the prospect will further rank up to the bank of england. be --al trade here could at the same time we think not much will happen.
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in a quiet morning and fx, in fx, i resilience -- noticed resilience. to call for the chinese yuan to 2021?ong in storyin: part of the there will be the cyclical recovery and the role of the dollar as the most important cyclical currency. as global trade continues to recover, a growing proportion of the dollar trading will be converted. they will have to pay salaries and so forth. those particular market players have been hoarding dollar cash. year, assuming
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global trade continues to recover, that cyclical driver will continue to grow out. 620 yuan is something, folks. marinov will continue with us. a whole stick. important to see the lift in equities. we do not see correlation in bonds. fx quiet with some dollar weakness. $50 point $.14 -- $50.14 at 12:00 noon, and. this is bloomberg -- anthony
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fauci. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪
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♪ ♪ --a: business. bloomberg pfizer is close to a deal to supply more vaccine doses to the u.s. government. they deal could result in the government getting on hundred million more doses.
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the u.s. declined an offer earlier this year to buy more of the shots. tim cook refused to take a meeting to consider buying tesla. wouldusk said the price have been $16 billion, roughly 1/10 of its current value. apple is not commenting. a movie theater cinemark's engine -- is suing its insurer for refusing to cover expenses. the third biggest u.s. theater chain says insurance failed to honor cinemark's policy. at the movie business has been devastated by the pandemic. larger --e stimulus what do you get? futures up. i am watching eve x more than
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anything. speak to what you were saying, it is a glass half-full morning. the russell 2000 outperforming. don's doing nothing into the dollar -- bonds doing nothing -- everyone throwing their hat in that ring. power,up on balance of former u.s. senator to montana. this is u.s. bloomberg -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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lisa: this is "bloomberg surveillance." is off. lacqua
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we are heading into a new year, almost done with 2020, i promise. there is a new alliance with janet yellen placed to home the treasury department. working in tandem with jerome powell to reignite a beaten up u.s. economy. what does this mean for the dollar? valentina mironov is still with us. is the implication of a dollar of the fed chief and treasury secretary working closer together than before to reignite growth? be --hink that should dollar negative. [indiscernible] they will try to restore the u.s. economy back to health, normal conditions. cogent of the limitations the treasury has given the gridlocked congress we will likely have next year.
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working closely with the treasury could -- the fed is also trying to dollar couldweaker be part of that. --re is hope [indiscernible] so long as the u.s. is not facing difficulty attracting inflows on the back of concerns about deteriorating -- case is maybe they proof -- [indiscernible] which would be an
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interesting divergence from the past when the u.s. had traditionally dollar strong policy. tom has been mentioning all week , negative real yields, negative one point 04% on the 10 year, if you basically take away inflation. how low can we go in the united states? we could go a bit lower still. our forecast for nominal treasury yields is that it is going to be stable around 1%, or just below 1% for the foreseeable future and well into 2021. with inflation expected to recover gradually, that could give you lower 10 year treasury yields compared to current levels. it is also important from a dollar standpoint -- how it
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-- ises -- how the u.s. not going to bode well because faresewhere could favorably and could translate into further dollar weakness. becausel be by design the fed is trying to refuel u.s. inflation. tom: where is trade right now? the carrywriting up trade, is it worth the intelligent speculation? intelligently -- [laughter]-- i do believe short dollar gains across cyclical currencies makes sense. being i was mentioning earlier the trade flows -- a weaker dollar is still to come. showing thatis not corporate's around the world have started selling the dollar in earnest and have been
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hoarding the dollar for a long period of time. euro-dollar 1.25 could still be on the cards. [indiscernible] beyond that, i believe notwithstanding the risks, a non-trade deal brexit -- we are heading toward a much better inr in 2021 than we have 2020. this much should ultimately supports trade. you mentioned that, but i believe the yen and the swiss franc should ultimately come up to boil, at least to make an interesting -- in their own right. tom: that is too much good news. of g10 fxarinov, head research. with news is ritika gupta. ritika: president trump
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complicating the outlook for coronavirus stimulus bill passed by congress. he is signaling he may not sign it, and is demanding changes. one of them, increasing the size of the check going to most americans from $600 to $2000. the president because the bill a disgrace and says it is full of wasteful and unnecessary items. darkestn warned the stage of coronavirus is still to come. the president-elect called on congress to be ready to reduce another stimulus package early next year. he has not putting a dollar figure on it. has -- over president trump on the major hack of u.s. agencies. the president-elect blames the administration for not taking cybersecurity seriously. reading being called on the president to publicly identify the culprit, saying it is widely believed to be russia. brexit's trade deal hangs in the balance with fishing the key issue.
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prime minister boris johnson and -- have intervened, making a last ditch bid to make an agreement before the u.k. leaves the market at the end of the year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am rich a good group to come of this is bloomberg. lisa: coming up, we can only hold our breath. wilson, head of the institute of biomedical science talking about this new strain of covid and what it could mean. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: good morning. an extraordinary day, no other way to put it. dow futures up 79. the news flow out of london, paris, and washington on the president's stimulus is extraordinary. it is a backdrop for a grim december. the president-elect speaks of a dark future forward. .hen we look at the pandemic we will be touching on this. as we have done from day one, we speak to experts. oflular pathology, the study wilson is at the head of the line. he is truly one of the world's experts. we are thrilled he could join us. the do you know about
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cellular pathology of this virus that you did not know in april? allan: good morning. it is interesting. is capableobviously of mutating into changing. that is what we are starting to learn. -- it replicates a lot, and therefore it will change. meanof those changes will very little to us. what has happened more recently in the southeast of england, there seems to be a significant number of mutations. that has changed behavior. now -- theion
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science is not there yet -- but it appears this virus -- compared to the original virus. tom: still a mystery is the viral and see, the strength nowe power of this virus. covid virus fit in for just being mean and vicious? definitely has a high fatality rate compared to any other virus we have seen. that is because of the impact mainly on the respiratory system and our inability yet to have methods to treat patients. we are getting much better, but at the moment there -- in high risk categories, you catch this virus and it is not good news. fatality is so high. on the scale of other viruses at the moment, it is pretty nasty. will emergecome, it and we will be able to treat this virus in much the way we treat the flu as we get a better
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understanding of the complications. lisa: i find myself sifting through the science ticket to one question, when does it end? increased contagion of this new strain, or believed increased contagion, could prolong the pandemic just by virtue of needing a greater number of individuals vaccinated before we get critical mass and can reach some sort of herd immunity. is that accurate? allan: the problem with the boat -- the vaccination program will go on. the vaccinesests that we are using will protect individuals against the virus. we implications of this are simply will see more people with the virus. probably will not affect vaccination. it will probably not affect herd immunity, how long it takes to get herd immunity.
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the main implications are simply that more people will catch this virus, so probably more people , especially in areas that are at risk. we are still developing the evidence. another issue we are looking at is whether we -- the good news seems to be the pcr tests and others seem to be effective because we have detected it. detection works, so it really is various governments have been saying the issues are. what we should be doing is trying to stop the spread. decrease social contact. tom: i want to go back to the biometrics. the cellular pathology of young patients. there was a belief permeating the system that the young are immune from the viral effect on a macro basis, even on the cellular level.
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is that true? allan: it seems to be. we know young people can get this virus, they can spread it, they can transmit it. in relatively small numbers of the adult population, very few young children become significantly ill. expectation, the assumption is they can carry and transmit it, but not develop symptoms. we are not sure why that is, we think it has something to do with the way the virus transmits and interacts. these cells are less well-developed and the youngsters, and as they seem to develop some sort of -- not immunity, but protection from the symptoms. we are still looking at the science of that one, but it definitely seems there is protection for young children. lisa: there has been discussion
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about the success of mrna technology being used for the first time in mass scale and how this could lead to some universal vaccine that could address future strains of viruses. what is your sense of how likely that is? one of the few silver linings we have from this pandemic is that we are much better at quickly developing vaccines. we have learned a lot. effectivelyand how these vaccines are, we have developed new ways. the vaccine we are using is new technology we have never used before to develop vaccines. is out a little bit on the long-term effects. this is a relatively new virus. it will be years before we know how long that immunity lasts and whether we need to think about a booster.
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that will be in -- comparing the vaccinated to the nonvaccinated. allan wilson, thank you so much for a little bit of silver lining. likegot to say, it feels it is tinged in historical paint we are going to be looking back and studying not only our reaction, but some of the developments on the biopharmaceutical side. tom: james murdoch just updated the statistics. the bottom line, murdoch lengthened everything out. lisa: we are definitely looking at perhaps a longer pandemic. perhaps on the other satya nadella universal vaccine. pandemic, more on the fda commissioner, 8:30 a.m. new york. keene,ramowicz and tom this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." wayve that could change the u.s. initial public offerings have been conducted for decades. the sec has approved an nyse plan for primary direct listings that would allow companies to raise money on the exchange without paying underwriting fees to wall street banks. critics say the change erodes investor protections. the stimulus package passed by congress does not offer direct funding to restaurants. that is another blow to two of the hardest hit parts of the u.s. economy. the message does allow small businesses to take out loans. lisa, tom. tom: thanks so much. futures up 12. liv-ex, 23.34. -- the vix. >> joining me today is already
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ball. -- >> thank you for having me. >> join me on a journey. it dawned on me, in the early days of this pandemic, you spent about $3 million in three weeks from is that correct? >> we would prefer to say invested. [laughter] >> that number in it is wild. kkr was one of the biggest firms we knew to spend money at the time. they spent only about 2.5. you are less than 1 -- less than 5% of the size of kkr. you capitalized on early opportunities at this pandemic. opportunityk, that moving into pandemic 2.0 is much different than what we saw in march. how has the investing landscape changed? >> we are both equity and debt. what you are referring to is on
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the debt side, when you have massive tickler -- massive dislocation in april. priore have seen in downturns, and you can tell by my lack of hair that i have been through a few. the debt market dislocate's first, then the equity markets follow. we see a very target rich we investt in which over two years that it will take a while to play out. there are recurring themes. one of those themes is the lack of debt availability similar to what we saw on the 2008-2009 downturn. i say equity markets, i am talking about real estate specifically. invest in, we think 12 to 24 months of opportunity. >> in the summer when everyone saw the light at the end of the tunnel, you said this would last longer.
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how much pain do you see in the second part of this pandemic and how does that change the way you invest? accommodated --, which does not hurt real estate. which have verticals outperformed both in good times and bad. we would put this pandemic in the latter category. i am reluctant to make any predictions about the timing and how this pandemic will play out. we tend to think it will take 6-12 months from this point to really get the health care crisis behind us. the economic ramifications are much more far-flung. the fed towe expect remain accommodative, fantastic opportunities on the real estate side, especially in the asset classes. >> speaking of, you also talked
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about this moral hazard that comes with it. what distortions are you seeing happening in the market around you that may be cause for concern? a moral is always hazard dynamic. we saw that on the debt side. bad actors get rewarded, and that is the way it works. protect theo majority of people. selfishly, we wish the fed had been a little slower in its reaction on the debt side. on the equity side, acquisitions on the real estate side, i do not see -- other than potentially industrial -- much of a moral hazard, i see it more in the public markets and the spec -- as pac craze.
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see a lot of unfounded enthusiasm and momentum. i do not see that playing out on the real estate side in the same way i see it playing out in the spac side. >> we are still seeing investor interest in real estate. credit assets. for you, this means doubling of assets from the beginning of this year into the beginning of next year according to sources. thates have also told us goldman sachs' unit boosted their stake in you in less than 12 months. see in these investors this market? what is the opportunity said? set -- yourtunity mentioned a couple of things, but i would say first we are thrilled and humbled to be partnering with peter selling goldman sachs.
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mentioned overgrowth, i would say our growth is fueled by the opportunities in front of us. , s had mentioned earlier investing $3 million. it was $2 million, but we bought freddie mac bonds that amounted to $3 billion. that was an outsized risk adjustment return, the portion of that was realizing in june. the only thing i am pointing out is that our growth has been a result of -- >> i have to jump in, thank you for joining us. we hope to have you back again soon. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciated. dow futures of 93. stay with us.
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am: this morning, send me
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suitable bill, or else the next administration will have to deliver -- and maybe that administration will be me. stun mnuchin, mcconnell and surreally with the gift for pelosi. he will not sign the $900 million deal. trillion to be 1.2 dollars plus, and to do it now. the georgia elections are in 13 days. equities continue to lift. blinks, lufthansa will airlift vegetables to london. good morning everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on an extraordinary wednesday. tons of economic data. squeeze thursday and friday into this wednesday, all of it pushed


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