tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg December 29, 2020 5:00am-6:00am EST
>> stocks power into year-end. the momentum shows no sign of abating. to clearis expecting the astrazeneca oxford vaccine possibly as early as today. this is an opportunity for boris johnson to reset his government. let's talk about politics stateside. the house of representatives backing $2000 stimulus checks. the georgia voters will likely decide. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am guy johnson in for francine lacqua and tom keene. they have a well-deserved day off. the house -- ritika: has passed a bill that would replace the $600 stimulus checks with $2000 payment.
house democrats and some republicans were in favor. this poses a dilemma for senate republicans. trump's approval could put political pressure on them. the house voted to override trump's veto, the spending bill. if the senate takes similar action as expected, it would be the first time one of the president's veto has been overturned. he vetoed the bill in part because he wanted to attach an unrelated provision. york, residents suffering financial hardships get a break. they will be protected from evictions and foreclosures until may 1 due to a law signed by governor andrew cuomo. a proposed frexit trade deal is essentially a sideshow for the city of london. eu officials must rule separately that oversight is
strong enough to create a level playing field. without that, there could be a steady leakage of business for the u.k. finance industry. big banks have already started to shift assets. global news 24 hours a day on air and a bloombergquint take -- bloomberg quicktake. thank you very much. fresh records on both sides of the atlantic yesterday. we saw it with the dax and stateside with the s&p. we are seeing yields lower of the bit today here in germany. down by around one basis point. yields are lower, but stocks are higher. 2.6%, coming back up despite the fact that we are looking at a deal that we don't
fully understand the full implications of. s&p futures are higher. the euro continues higher as well. the dollar continues its downward trajectory. we are watching what is happening with crude. the brent benchmark, 51.57. in terms of the mechanics of formallyu members can approve the brexit trade deal today. that is before it goes to a vote in the u.k. house of commons tomorrow. the european parliament will give its verdict on the agreement to take effect on january 1. talks will continue on financial services. joining us now to discuss this is bronwyn maddox. good morning and thanks for your time this morning. when do we get the big reset from boris johnson? when do we start to understand what his vision for a post
brexit britain actually looks like? bronwyn: we don't know the answer. we hope that we will begin to get some indication pretty soon. some of that will begin with security policy. that should remain unchanged, but we are going to have to look towardgs like attitude iran as well as its approach to the european union itself. we also have to see what he intends to do about the money remaining things to be negotiated such as financial services and many bits on how this is going to work. wewe look for this year, have big international meetings that britain is hosting, the g7, the climate summit meeting at the end of the year. that is where we are going to be able to see the rhetoric of
stage and the world what he intends to put behind that. near term, would you expect a cabinet reshuffle? do you think we see a new doroach to the cabinet and you think there is a possibility we shift away from the focus on brexit loyalty. should focusgue we on competency rather than loyalty. bronwen: it is a good argument. there are weaknesses in the cabinet where the past year's emergencies has shown the limits of what they can do. i think it would be reasonable or encourage a cabinet reshuffle at this point because as you said, he picked his cabinet for those who would sign up to get brexit done.
he therefore has more leeway to appoint others and there are strengths within the party, strong people who are not within the cabinet. it is a question of how generous he wants to be to some people who have been former opponents on one issue or another. one of the frightening things about this prime minister is that he does seem to hold a grudge. he has taken deliberate action against some of those who have clashed with him or even disagreed with him. we have to see whether he is willing to stretch out. he does have this very ambitious agenda of leveling up the country, trying to do something about the parts britain has been left behind economically and socially. that might mean a wider team of people. plus, he still has the coronavirus emergency. guy: let's pick up on that for a moment. it is possible today we see regulatory clearance for
astrazeneca. the u.k. has 100 million doses on order. they would likely be more to follow. how pivotal a moment will this be for the johnson administration? talked: people have about it being a game changer, but that is a word that has been overused. it would be much easier to biontech, pfizer vaccine, which is being used at the moment. they have got quite a lot of people vaccinated now with that, but it is slow going. the oxford astrazeneca one would speed it up enormously. you still run into how many people are available to give the vaccinations. there is no question it would add speed. i think people are almost taking .hat for volatile
anxious on the help already. guy: let's talk about a couple of issues to come up in the next couple of days. what is the tolerance of the british population for a tier five? it was talked about yesterday in the media as a possibility because the new variance is causing the old numbers to spike and we have the post christmas spike to deal with as well. in such a scenario, do you think gove,johnson, michael gavin williamson would be able to shut secondary stores possibly for a month? what do you think the tolerance is for that? public: i think the tolerance for tighter restrictions or continuing , people arerictions
exhausted, they are afraid. the stories of the strains on livelihoods, mental health, all of that is growing. i think people would absolutely get behind it. the secondary schools is a really difficult one. it affects lots of people's ability to go to work as well as the education. i have a daughter in her last year of school. the government is very unwilling, having seen how much children suffered before and how much education they lost and what a different educational experience it was between different kinds of schools, they are very unwilling to take the step. i would say pressure is growing from medical quarters saying we really have to get on top of this.
the issues for which the u.k. will leave the eu. there is a six-month hiatus, a six-month buffer built in. in many ways, this is a fairly favorable digital deal on both sides. there was a digital chapter included in the deal, which is rare when it comes to an eu trade deal. let's talk more about this. is my assessment correct, to have a digital chapter built in, it seems to be a very big -- seems to be very encouraging. the fact that it specifically addresses some of the major issues we have been talking to the u.k. government and also our file -- follow trade associates in europe about, such as preventing data localization requirements. for example, the commitment to work towards the data advocacy
agreement. these are all greatly encouraging things and set the scene for what can be a really good agreement between the u.k. and the remaining 27. me whatt explained to happens now. will there be any changes on day one, or do we have this six-month transfer period that is going to allow data to flow fairly freely, and explain what happens in that six-month period. julian: effectively, we are not treated as a third country by the rest of the eu. in that period. nothing changes at all or nothing can change while the negotiations take place for the data adequacy position. after that, there are two separate, but equivalent data regimes. -- can build on what we will be putting in
place, we hope. we have learned throughout this process not to count our chickens. it is a really positive direction to travel. we have not got it yet, but we are on the path, we believe. guy: which areas could we see divergence? julian: in the six months, nothing, essentially. in our view, what both the eu and u.k. can do is build on what we have got. think, aot already, we good basis to establish trust. trust is so important in the industries that use its technology, such as financial services, media, etc. you really need to be able to have that trust relationship with your customers and to build on that. we would encourage the u.k. government to start moving after , getting real focus from government departments and regulators on
how data is used across the whole economy. let's focus on how we use health data. the pandemic has shown the importance of that going forward. also, addressing climate change, making sure they have a good partnership between government industries, more openness on things to get the right digital infrastructure and, particularly, local as we try to level out across the country. we have got to address the digital skills gap. it is all very well having a data regime if you don't have the skills in place to grow the industry needed. and then use this, as we have already started to do, to build other international frameworks and try and get as many countries in. the u.k. has a real opportunity working with like-minded partners like the eu and others to actually take a leadership position.
think about the g7, it should be thege topic as we have residency of that going into 2021. guy: thank you very much indeed for the time. we will probably catch up in six months time to give an idea of what is going on. we look forward to that. julian david. we have chris coming up. that conversation kicks off at 6:00 a.m. in new york. looking forward to it. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: welcome back. this is guy johnson. equity markets continuing to search higher. the ftse is back today, up 2.5% today. the dax is up by around .4%. looking at the percentage mispriced on the s&p on my bloomberg, it is telling me the s&p is going to go from strength to strength. around .6%. joining us now is jp morgan cha ir of global research. let's talk about whether or not this equity rally will continue and how far into 2021 you are
feeling optimistic. >> happy holidays, it is great to be with you. i do think this rally will continue. we think there is about $1 trillion of inflows that could still go into the equity market. you still have a stream giving you a yield that is 3.3%. when you look at the bond world and you have 80% of developed market government bonds at real negative yields. there very comfortable with 4400 target we have on the s&p. i do think it is frontloaded. this momentum, we see continuing through the first quarter of the year. we actually think that many of the emerging markets equities are going to yield better in 2021 compared to the past year. we think and emerging-market equities, you could have some gains as high as 20% because that had been laggard. the flows still looked pretty promising.
equities, the momentum from the fiscal deal and the question of whether the package sets up some type of precedent to look at whether infrastructure package can get through in the u.s. during 2021. u.s.just sticking with the for now, because it would be great to talk about china and politics a little later on in the show. let's just stick with the u.s. markets for now. i am curious as to what happens below the surface within that target. ofre is a little -- a lot people suggesting you want to rotate toward cyclicals. would you agree with that and how selective do you have to be? i still don't have a solid handle on exactly whether or not stocks like airlines are really going to be able to sustain the bounceback given the fact that they are likely to face tough times and are probably likely to have diluted cash flows as well. 2021, we do think
covid reopening stocks are going to continue to do well, including consumer discretionary, travel, gaming, leisure. that is probably something that is more of the second half as we see the vaccine and the availability begin to take effect. energyike financials, and consumer discretionary as we look into 2021. we think these are sectors on the yield which have flagged and still have value. at 2022 within eps of 2200. we think there is momentum that can continue. there is still room for catch up. we are looking at stronger oil prices next year, i better outlook for travel and leisure and hotels. we also think energy and
financials offer value as well. if the financials call based on a steeper yield curve, and do you worry any steepening of the curve will see the fed step on it? joyce: we have done a lot of investor surveys on when the fed will move. most investors are not expecting the fed to really raise rates until 2023. we are looking at the 10-year treasury yield, at one point, 3%. i still think one thing to remember is that even by the end of 2021, you are still going to be more than three percentage points below where we were pre-pandemic. see yields rising that much over the course of 2021. i think that becomes much more of a debate in 2022.
longer iswer for even a message even the fed has said in one of its most recent statements. i still think you have a market that is conducive to the equity markets, and also higher-yielding fixed income. will bee inflows that going into the u.s. high-yield market and we have a forecast in 2021 for around 7.5 percent return for u.s. high-yield. guy: stick around. we still need to talk about what can happen with politics and maybe the politics can change the inflation outlook. later today, adam pozen will be joining us as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
senate to follow in its footsteps on stimulus payments to most americans. house democrats approved a measure that would approve the $600 payment -- improve the $600 payment to most americans to $2000. trumpden is accusing loyalists at national security agencies obstructing the transition. he warns that u.s. adversaries could take advantage of the situation. he cited political appointees at the pentagon and budget office. the defense department says it has been working with biden's team with the utmost professionalism. china is struggling to get the world to trust its coronavirus vaccine. the chinese shots could have been a diplomatic win for beijing, but developing nations are wary. there has been little information about how the chinese vaccine nations have perked -- vaccinations have performed.
a former british socialite will remain behind bars in new york. the former girlfriend of jeffrey epstein is fighting sex trafficking charges. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- i amo could gupta. ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. guy: i want to take us back to that first story about the $2000 checks the house has now cleared, basically during the senate to deliver the same. it will be interesting to see mitch mcconnell back down on this one. ansome ways, it has created interesting split within the republican party between the president and senate republicans. the big question is, would a $2000 check set up, over stimulate the u.s. economy?
does it need that level of stimulation at this point order those $600 checks actually deliver about the right amount? still with us is joyce of j.p. morgan to get her take on this. is $2000 too much? there is this concern we are pouring a lot of money into the economy right now. i appreciate there is a big hole to fill, but nevertheless, do you worry if there is too much on the fiscal front, that we could stoke that inflationary fear that some have started talking about? joyce: i think $2000 is going to pass in the senate to begin with. i think they have been clear from the get go that they were not willing to pass something like that. i don't think that is going to $2000, but i think the at this point in time, it was more the speed of getting something through before the deadline so that it is a bridge to the vaccines. the $600 is a bridge to the
vaccines. i think what the market is going to focus on is where is infrastructure going in 2021? you still want a stimulus, but you want a stimulus that is not just doing relief measures. he really want something that is leading to longer term issues related to job creation and some of these things in the biden proposal. i'm not as fixated on the $2000 right now. i don't think that goes through. i think trump is signaling, with respect to his desire to show what his priorities are for individual households, but i think it is more about do you see a stimulus and other forms take hold in 2021 on infrastructure? do you think that is something the problem-solving caucus at the center of both houses could ultimately deliver? joyce: taking a look at this fiscal package, you have a small
bipartisan group. between this huge gap $500 billion and $2 billion. you had a small bipartisan group come up with something in the middle. you do have elements of both the democratic and republican side that agree on an infrastructure package. that is some place you could find common ground. there are some areas where they are nonstarter's. a lot of the republican tax nonstarter.e a infrastructure is a place where i think looking out what happened with the fiscal package, you could see that type of agreement come about. it would not be as aggressive as what the build back better plan has for $2 trillion for a green recovery, but it could be something more modest on infrastructure spending that comes together. guy: joyce, would you basically have to tear up your
expectations, your model for what 2021 is going to look like from a market point of view, an economic point of view, were we to see the democrats win in georgia and ultimately have control of the senate to joe biden? $3ave heard talk of trillion, $4 trillion stimulus packages potentially coming out of the new administration. how would that affect your expectations? joyce: we do need to see what happens with the georgia races, but the key point i would make is that margin would be so narrow that something like $3 trillion and $4 trillion is not likely to happen. that would surprise the markets if you had democratic control. i do think the narrowness of the margins, you are not going to see that extremes. beyond just looking at the democratic proposals, we are looking at the appointments that have been made. there have been some pretty
centrist appointments. the one thing they have in common is previous yield government experience. it is a very diverse cabinet as well. i don't think you are going to see areas like $3 trillion and $4 trillion on the horizon even if you did have the democrats prevail just because the margins are narrow enough that they are very conscious of what they need to do to get these programs to move forward. the fiscal package is a very good indicator that compromises were not necessary. it was certainly surprised the market if that were to come through. this depends on how we are talking about covid-19 by the second quarter of the year. do we really see effective vaccines or widespread and available on the horizon? that will temper some of the feelings that you need to do something as aggressive. i think that is really the key thing the markets are going to focus on when we look at the
course of 2021. do we have effective vaccines? are we talking more about community immunity? wet is the rollout plan as look at this on a global basis? guy: absolutely. we are waiting for news on the astrazeneca oxford vaccine potentially as early as today. i would like to talk more about what is happening in the emerging markets. joyce chang is going to stick with us. coming up in the next hour, jesse powell. we are going to be talking bitcoin at 6:30 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: 40 minutes past the hour. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." francine and tom both have the day off. is signalingunion support for completing work on an investment deal with china. it would expand access to chinese markets for international investors. maria tadeo joins us with details. how close are we? it doesn't sound that this is a minute and could happen tomorrow. investment deal. it is happening under the watch of the german rotator presidency of the european union. the key here is that when you look at the trade relationship between the european union and china, there is a deficit of 150 billion euros. it works in favor of china. europeans, the germans, the
fronts, this is a relationship that needs to be rebalanced. they worry about state subsidies, dumping, the lack of equal access for european countries and the chinese market. in theory, this is working to rebalance. it will all be about the details. ofi say, there is a lot growing speculation in brussels that this may come as early as tomorrow. -- one of ther critical factors is europe's ability to manage labor standards in china. i am wondering what progress is likely to be made here in terms of adhering to international standards on labor and what progress the eu has made. had been one of the sticking points and is very well documented. it is not just labor, but also sometimes there is a catch to it
which has to do with the human rights. it has always been a very sticky point, a point of contention. it is difficult to tell china what to do in matters they still fundamentally view as domestic issues for the chinese. we could be in a situation where tomorrow, and investment plan is announced but those details are not hammered out or essentially ignored. that has happened before. you want to focus on the forward-looking investments. tomorrow, we could see a replay of that. guy: fascinated to see what happens as the eu pushes forward with its green agenda in 2021. still with us, joyce chang of jp morgan. what would such a deal, as one we are talking about here, between china and the, mean for -- the eu, mean for investors? joyce: i think you are going to
see portfolio inflows move into china. fixed income and equities is still low. i think one thing china is very conscious of, they want those portfolio flows. we have seen china going into the mainstream global fixed income indexes. we feel that is about $150 billion to $200 billion of flows. we think as we see tension between china and the u.s. and eu on issues such as labor, human rights and on the tech side, we still see china has kept opening its financial services to foreign investors. we think investors don't look at that yield differential, they look at growth differential in china. we have china growing 8.6% in 2021. that is something the chinese are focused on, they want to keep the capital markets aspect, something that is global in
nature and still able to put a framework on the places that encourage foreign participation. guy: one of the things that may cause international investors is some concern is the lack of transparency around the tech sector. we have seen what has happened with aunt over the last few days and the authorities in beijing wanting to rain that company and. does that cause concern? joyce: i do think tech is one area where you are really seeing more decoupling. there is a real desire to decouple from china on that. china is very focused on self-sufficiency there. there are other areas i see far greater cooperation. there is a whole debate on whether you could see more cooperation on the green side, the green recovery, environmental issues going forward given what china's goals are and the biden administration also embracing this.
i think tech is still an area where you are going to see a lot desire, whether it is the eu or u.s., keep a separate agenda from what china is doing. i also think human rights and democracy are going to be more focused under the biden administration. the u.s.-china tensions are not going to go away. it is going to be very different than what we saw under the trump administration. i don't see more tariffs. i think tariffs are something you may not see them removed as easily, but we won't see greater tariffs. you do have in the congress in the u.s., more than 300 anti-china bills, some of them related to human rights and democracy. this tension is not going to go away and the tech side is still an area where it cuts international security, privacy issues, all of these different issues where it is still going to be very much a hot button.
there are other areas where we think tension will come down, particularly related to the trade tariffs. you think the chinese authorities will react if their currency continues to strengthen? the dollar has been going down. do you think they would be concern at the pboc and with that concern turn into any reaction? joyce: we do have the currency continuing to appreciate. 6.25 for theg at currency in 2021 and that is already after appreciating around 6% in 2020. i think it is something that is not the key focus point right now given what the growth outlook is for china. that is going to continue. we also have inflows that are going into chinese markets right now. foreign ownerships of chinese markets still remains very low.
side, lessd income than 3%. there are other issues that are definitely more top of mind for china right now. i think part of this is the eu agreement, trying to make sure there is an overall framework in place where you continue to have the global forces around capital impact still making an even as there are tensions in other areas. guy: it has been a pleasure to spend time with you this morning. thank you for being up early to spend time with us. joyce chang, jp morgan chair of global interest. up next, we will return to what is happening with the virus and vaccines. joined by theo be ucla fielding school of public health professor of biophysics. that conversation, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: welcome back. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." covid-19 hospitalizations in the united states reaching new heights. this as officials warn of a post-christmas surge in infections. couldile, u.k. regulators approve the covid-19 vaccine produced by astrazeneca and the university of oxford as early as today. christina ramirez, professor of statistics at ucla joining us on the line. thus far, we have been vaccinating with the messenger mrna. they have stability issues with temperature. we are potentially going to get the astra news today out of the u.k. shote waiting for the j&j to be approved stateside as
well. how important will these more stable vaccines make in terms of the rollout and how much will they speed the process up? christina: i thank you for having me. arsenals, any increase in arsenals of things we have to combat the virus is good. astrazeneca enjoys the benefit of not having to have cold requirements as the pfizer vaccine, which makes it easier to distribute in places that are less urban. having more arrows in our quiver to be able to fight the vaccine, to be able to fight the virus is good and can really be a game changer and will especially be useful to reduce the morbidity and mortality of those most at risk.
in terms of what i am hearing from a lot of health care professionals, in some ways, access to the vaccine is one issue, but the bigger issue is access to staff. in atalk about this zero-sum game terms. tosmuch as, as we continue see the case counts spiking, that pulls staff away from the vaccination program. as a result of which, you actually see the vaccinations slow down. of availability of vaccines or of staff to be able to actually manage the process? christina: it is a bit of both. we are hoping that a lot of the staff will become vaccinated early. the cdc has issued recommendations of who should be first on the list to be vaccinated.
if we can protect our health care workers, they can go on to treat people and also vaccinate others. balancing act between being able to deliver the vaccine and take care of patients. one of the issues we are battling in the u.k. is the new variance, which seems to be more transmittable. it is likely we are going to see other mutations that are likely to allow the virus to be more transmittable as well. what impact does this have on when we should expect heard immunity? an excellentis is question and we really should be keeping track of the mutation of the virus. i would highly recommend every country to be sequencing the virus so we can keep track of mutations. this particular variance has places asen seen in far as australia, israel, hong
kong and nordic countries. it seems to have already traveled far and wide. as we sequence more, we will be able to find these mutations. that now, we do not expect it will be able to get around particular, this mutation, which is excellent news, but it does caution us we should be keeping track of the viral mutation. just a final quick question, what kind of a post holiday surge are you anticipating? that ita: we are hoping will be low, that people will be respecting the stay-at-home orders and not traveling widely. we keep track of this daily. and we hope for
the best, but plan for whatever reality faces us in the future. christina, great pleasure to have you on the show today. thank you for getting up early to join us. christina ramirez from the fielding school of public health at ucla. markets, thequity surge continues to year-end. records stateside yesterday will likely continue. the s&p called up by .6%. up next, we are speaking to and chief economist. that is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
powering intoe year end. no sign of abating. the u.k. is expected to clear the astrazeneca vaccine as early as today. boris johnson may reset his government and the house of representatives backs a stimulus check setting up a battle with the senate and the georgia vote will likely die. this is open quote bloomberg surveillance." get the bloomberg first word news. passed ahe house has bill that would replace the 600 dollars stimulus checks with 2000 dollar payments. house democrats and some republicans stated the proposal backed by president trump and now creates a dilemma for senate republicans. many of them previously