tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 22, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST
post inaugural pause. call it a reassessment of the scope and scale of this 2020, and now 2021 pandemic. president change -- but dr. fauci is the same. he insists let sign speak. let transparency and honesty speak. president biden extrapolates out to 500,000 deaths. it is a great debate, about the great moderation, the age of disinflation, and your portfolio. steven eisman in this hour. good morning, everyone, bloomberg surveillance, from new york, from london. mr. biden out with announcement at 5:00 a.m. as well. and a reassessment of where we are in this pandemic. we have been distracted the last number of weeks or so, and i really get the feeling, francine, today is sort of the day of reassessment, with
400,000 deaths in america and what is to be done next. francine: reassessment, trying to accelerate, and you are trying to vaccinate a large number of the population at the time when infections are going up as well, tom, but it was quite sobering listening to dr. anthony fauci saying how this biden administration will be different from the previous one. i was really excited for you because i know you got the vaccine yesterday. i think it was yesterday in the morning. how was it? tom: it was real interesting and there were some real surprises as well. this is his contribution to new york university, the founder of home depot, and this incredible video done secretly at new york. walter the nurse is giving me the jab. i am being distracted. seriously -- francine: were you in and out?
tom: i was relatively in at out, an incredibly busy manufacturing operation. what i noticed yesterday was the intensity and the focus of the hospital workers making this happen. because it is simple. you go and you get the shot and you move on. but it is hundreds of people doing it, and the intensity and the seriousness of intent surprised me. francine: the approach of the u.k. is slightly different. they are trying to get that first shot to as many people as you can, but of course you need two shots if you take the pfizer vaccine, to be vaccinated, to be immune to covid-19. and they are basically elongating the time. you should be getting your second shot in three or four weeks. tom: 19 days. francine: there doing it weeks after that initial shot. tom: many of you know this is
what i studied in school, and a lot of the fears that are out there, francine, our fears that will be overcome by just seeing people go out and do it, get out there, get your vaccine, and tell people about it. that is the quickest way to get this done. we are advantaged right now. we will get to the data in a moment. joining us, chief vaccination correspondent martin schenker. you already had the vaccine as well. i think you are ahead of me on the schedule. this is a societal thing. it is not about politics, biden-dr. fauci-trump. this is a societal thing. marty: there are a number of minorities that are suspicious about the vaccine and resistant to take it. so the more we can tell people that the vaccine is safe and very few side effects and that it is a public duty to take the
vaccine, the better. tom: i wore if liars, you were kids, but we both wore thick -- i wore pf flyers, you wore keds. marty: my sister still has the card that show she got the polio vaccine in 1956. tom: and i remember, this is so important, the mothers in tears over the immediacy of older children affected by polio. marty:marty: it was really something. that was an -- it was really something. marty: that was an active poliovirus that you were taking, and there were some cases of people contracting polio. but it was eradicated from the u.s. francine: yesterday we were all listening to anthony fauci, and it was a very different press conference from what we had
under president trump. does it make a difference incentivizing people to reach out and go and get vaccinated? and listen to science? marty: i think that ultimately it will make a difference. it is not going to happen overnight. the absence of this kind of information in the previous administration and allowing the anti-vaccine movement to take hold, it cannot be understated how anthony fauci can actually turn that around. and it will take time. it will not be overnight, but i do think it is going to have an impact. francine: marty, you said it wednesday, you said it thursday, the only way the biden administration takes hold of the situation is to vaccinate more people. how will the one-does vaccination actually change everything for the u.s., given the distribution and the complexity? marty: one of the things that
dr. fauci said yesterday that he is confident they will be able to do 100 million vaccinations in this country in the first 100 days, which will be a huge step towards getting some semblance of herd immunity in the summer sometime. so i think that as long as that coordinated with the plans to try to increase the actual vaccine manufacturing, which we will see in the next few weeks and months, is the key. can you manufacture enough vaccine? tom: marty, the shock to me is the back to normalcy of the press releases that we get at 5:00 a.m. and through the day. what i see in this morning's press release of what the president will do today, is the linkage, every paragraph between him and the vice president, and also the use of the first floor of the white house. the state dining room, which is the smaller room, not the big east room, are going to move from the oval office as we see mr. biden signing documents.
yesterday. the state dining room was jefferson's private office, and then teddy roosevelt took over and put mooses on the wall. what is the symbolism about how the resident steps up his relations and occupies that first floor for work? marty: it cannot be overstated how significantly different said it -- different it is from the previous administration. there is an air of confidence that has circulated in the white house over the next couple of days. i think the press and us included are having to try to make sure that we are not being overly kind, and that we have to be as critical as we were with their previous administration. but there is no doubt that the information and the trust factor is much higher now than it was ever in the trump administration. tom: i just went down to the bottom of president biden's team press release, and they
misspelled the word president. even they are up to making mistakes as well. marty: no spell check there, i guess. tom: marty schenker, what do you expect to see from mr. biden in his first week? where do we get to when the first week is over? marty: the key issue is really not so much joe biden, it is mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer. and their ability to work out a power-sharing agreement in the senate is going to say volumes about whether this impeachment trial goes forward in february and allows biden's cabinet picks and his economic agenda to get addressed in congress. i think that is the thing to watch over the next few days and weeks. francine: marty, we were speaking to a political expert who was saying it will take at least 12, 18 months to realize whether the trump administration was a blip in history or whether the biden administration was a blip in history, and we go back to something that we had in 2020. what will make a difference for
joe biden? is it only the covid-19 that he has to get a handle, or is it inequality that will change the path for the u.s.? marty: with all deference to a political expert, i don't think 12 or 18 weeks is the arc of history. -- the arc of history that you need to use to figure out how joe biden fits in in presidential politics, in efficacy. i think it is all of those things. it is the confluence of many crises, economic, health, political, that joe biden is going to have to handle in a deft way. it will take more than just a few months to figure out whether he is able to do it. tom: 20 seconds -- packers, chiefs? marty: packers. tom: i have the lieutenant
governor of the empire state on. marty: i did not pick the bills last week, which was a big mistake in my pool. tom: that means you cannot retire, right? marty: right, that means an extra three months of work. tom: marty schenker, chief vaccination technologist. right now, first word news with karina mitchell. karina: the biden administration is trying to get republicans on board for the president's coronavirus relief plan. $1.9 trillion price tag has led to growing opposition from some republicans. president biden's pickford treasury secretary is leaving the door open for a tax increase. janet yellen says she would work with lawmakers to fast-track a series of tax hikes on corporations and wealthy americans, which would be used on infrastructure and expanding the social safety net. anthony fauci says he feels
liberated to be working with the new president after donald trump often tried to sideline him in the fight against the virus. dr. fauci admitted he had to contradict the former president at times, such as when he advocated for the use of an unproven malaria drug to treat the virus. european union leaders are painting a bleak picture of the virus. they warn new strains will lead to longer and possibly stricter lockdowns. and there is no clear sense of when the restrictions will be lifted. governments across the e.u. are struggling once again with rising numbers of infections and fatalities. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. this is what the market is looking at. we are seeing pressure on stocks both in futures and european stocks, that they worry about the extra lockdowns in europe and also about some of the
projections of what kind of scarring we could see in the economy. that is a bit of a different position to the optimism we saw two days ago in earnings. a couple of other things -- i am looking at german bunds edging lower. there is a move on italian bonds after reports that prime ministers giuseppe conte could consider early elections, and of course there is bitcoin. it bit more stable than 24 hours ago. tom: i believe we got it under -- got an under 30,000 bitcoin, which lit up bitcoin supporters and detractors as well. there is a deterioration in the tape in the last 29 minutes with the vix coming out near two big figures, 23.1 he won, from the enthusiasm yesterday. i want to point out the story of ibm. we are going to have a chart coming up that shows you the shocking failure of ibm over the last 22 years. we will do that with steven eisman as well.
coming up, a perfect time to speak with kathy hochul about one state's response to this horrific pandemic. the lieutenant governor of new york, and possibly her comments as the bills travel to kansas city. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.
a little later into the year. our conversation with steve eisman of the iceman group with neuberger berman on the equity markets. steve eisman, how are you positioned right now? steve: pretty long come about as long as i can be. i am long side combination of tech growth plus some cyclicals, mostly financials, large-cap financials, some large banks, and life insurance, and on the short side, highly selective, very idiosyncratic. tom: steve, the great debate here, with those banks that had a heck of a move, is the interest rate call. in your equity analysis, do you really look at the interest rate call? is it separate and discrete, or do you fold that right into your study?
steve: anybody who things you can invest in your bank and have no effect on interest rate streaming, part of my call is that i think at some point this year we are going to get vaccinated, the economy will return to normal, and i think rates will be higher. but the more important part of the call is i think the banks' capability with the financial crisis, this pandemic crisis, is in great shape. they didn't lose money despite the fact that they had a new accounting rule that required them -- there provision for loss much more aggressively. nobody raised any capital. the changes that were made post dodd-frank worked, so i think there is the potential here for the banks to be somewhat valued as they move in and can withstand a real crisis. francine: steve, do you worry -- good morning -- do you worry about companies or loans going sour when some of the cheap money is taken away?
steve: yeah, when is that going to be? francine: tell me. steve: i'm serious, i don't know, but it doesn't seem to be any time soon. that is obviously a risk, but given the people who run the fed today, i don't see that as a risk happening anytime soon. francine: when you talk about revaluing some of the banks, is it wall street banks, or do you feel the same way about some of the european banks that have a whole other set of problems? steve: of the european banks did ok coming through this pandemic. but they are not as well-run as the u.s. banks, they are not as well capitalized. could they get revalued? possibly, but i would rather own the banks in the united states. tom: steve eisman, i want to talk to you about rotation. the cookie-cutter institutional process, and all of us at bloomberg here, from our guests -- all of us here this from our guests. right now the rotation is out of
technology, over to cyclical as well. i am hearing you say you are really not a rotation guy. what are your thoughts on the certitude, the theory, if you will, that you need to rotate? steve: i do think you need to rotate on the margin. you just cannot sit there -- you could take a long-term perspective and just say i like growth stocks and just own them forever, and that is obviously the right call for the last 10 years. on the margin i tend to rotate somewhat. i think, assuming the economy does do well postvaccination, there is a real chance here for cyclicals to do well for a while. but over the long term, i still think that you need to have more capital in growth stocks, especially even the fact that we live in the age of disruption. tom: i want to introduce a chart, which is painful. it is the death of international business machines.
terrible numbers yesterday, down substantially this morning. and where they are after one leg up in the 90's, one leg up in the oughts, they are back up to where they were in 1999. steve eisman, how do you discern an ibm coming down the road? how do you figure out the next ibm? steve: always asking the easy question. look, i mean, sometimes technology companies get old. hard to figure out who that is. i am not going to make a prediction about who i think the next -- intel is potentially that. i mean, it evolves over time. it is hard to predict. ibm is a test case. but it doesn't seem like they have -- they are solving their problems. tom: steve eisman, really diving into some of the trends that he
sees, and yes, we must touch on those shorts, big and little, with mr. eisman. it is amazing how un-front -- how out front this move has been. coming up in the open from cambridge, bloomberg opinion columnist mohamed el-erian. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.
karina: i am karina mitchell with the bloomberg build and advance ship making plans in austin texas. it could also help samsung catch up with industry leaders. time on semiconductor. a sales recovery in the second half of the year led to strong annual earnings as volkswagen operating profit came in at $12.2 billion. the pandemic force vw to suspend reduction temporarily last spring. tom: thanks so much. a pause out there, folks. -29 on futures, the vix 23.50 out over two big figures. currency space, not much happening. sterling.3665, down from the lofty levels francine lacqua noted yesterday. francine: the british pound definitely weakening after the
prime minister instituted the third lockdown. it could last into the summer. we also had disappointing economic data that has been adding misgivings on pound. also italian stocks underperforming a little bit. bond yields rising on reports. coming up on balance ian bremmer, eurasia group founder. that is 12:30 p.m. in new york, 5:30 p.m. in london. i know they will talk about biden's policies, gdp, and the bipolar world, china versus u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪
sign executive orders if the recalcitrance continues. >> joe biden starts with canceling the keystone pipeline, when he talks about rejoining the paris climate accord -- these are issues that spooked the private sector, that we feel hold the private sector back. red for too long. >> you cannot solve every social problem, the environment, everything, simply by running deficits. at some point you have to make choices. tom: ken rogoff there with spirited comments. thank you for the heated comments on bitcoin. we will try to touch on that with steve eisman. it is not an event -- evident on
tv or radio but i have been a harsh critic of people shopping short ideas. you have always been incredibly grateful of setting up why you are shorting a position. set up a short position. steve: i don't know if i don't know if i'll be so graceful. this is my largest short -- the largest subprime lender in the united states. this is not a short unthinking the company will suffer credit losses. it has nothing to do with it. it is a pure regulatory story. for anyone that is interested, a company that was sued by the massachusetts attorney in the summer of 2024 predatory lending practices.
the complaint is an unbelievable document, incredibly detailed details providing a litany of predatory lending practices that are -- the only way to describe it is disgusting, and with a new head of the consumer financial protection bureau going to take charge soon, i think there is the potential for this company to be regulated into a much lower level of profitability at the very least. tom: when you look at steve eisman, when you look at what they are doing, do you speak to the company about your criticisms? do you came indicate -- do you communicate with the company? steve: in this case i have no interest in talking to the company. i look at the complaint by the massachusetts attorney general.
under the assumption that the complaint is accurate, this company is going to suffer a lot of regulatory changes. that is my thesis. i don't see a point in talking to the company. they will deny it. francine: is there a part to the market -- we talked about u.s. banks -- you talked about a company you are shorting -- is there more of an industry or asset class that you think is running too hot right now? steve: could have an academic discussion about stocks that i think are overvalued, but the problem is as long as the fed keeps rates at zero and money is free, i think that discussion is epidemic. -- academic and i never short a stock because i think it is overvalued. in the age of distraction, i think that is a disaster.
francine: i know tom talked about bitcoin, but you did write an essay saying income inequality is the biggest problem of our time. how does it factor into your thinking in 2021? steve: that is my personal, political view. it is not impact my view of investing in the something happens politically that changes policy. we will see if this administration does anything aggressive about it. my feeling is what this administration is going to do first is a lot of fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending, and only later will they do tax code. think that is i was reading "va" and they were talking up the next movie is going to be the big bitcoin. your thoughts on bitcoin -- governments are skating on health regulators will regulate it quite -- on how regulators
will regulate bitcoin. what does steve iceman do with -- steve eisman do with bitcoin? steve: steve eisman does nothing with bitcoin. i don't understand it. should it be valued -- when i don't understand something i just don't get involved. tom: do you think it is a legitimate market, or is it manufactured? "surveillance -- steve: people are buying and selling, but my personal opinion is i think they are buying or selling something that is impossible to value. it is one thing to talk about
what is the u.s. dollar-yen valuation, but when talking about bitcoin, i think we talking about how many angels are dancing on the head of a pi n. francine: what does the dollar do from here? if we get back something that is easier to value than bitcoin? steve: i mean, look -- valuing the dollar is easier than valuing bitcoin. i find the whole currency world, generally speaking, a difficult world. i don't do anything and currency. whenever i invest overseas i always hedge the currency 100%. it is not something that i ever have a strong opinion about one way or the other. tom: one final question, very, very important. it is understood you or neuberger berman set up a
process to do a structure or a news conference of ipo's -- we are miles away from lunch at the hilton. what you think about bringing companies public? francine: -- steve: it scares me that it seems to circumvent it in some ways, the whole ipo process, which the 33 and 34 act which created our entire regulatory structure has been a very good job. i think will be very interesting to see what the new head of the fcc, gary gensler, does about it. i think gary is a very good choice. i know him a little bit, and we will see if he addresses it, but until somebody addresses it, it is going to go on. tom: this is where i wanted to go. mr. gensler widely presumed to
come in and take a tougher tone. did these occur because of the laissez-faire structure of the trump administration? steve: no. maybe to a degree. the head of the fcc under trump took a very laissez-faire attitude. that is part of it. more importantly it is a function of the free money out there and the license the fed has given people to speculate at will. tom: steve eisman, generous of your time. greatly appreciated. i do want to say we had bloomberg have an entire process of how we deal with shorting, cash shorting comments on air. we will reach out to credit acceptance for them to comment on mr. iceman --eiseman's
shorting of the stock. with first word news, here is karina mitchell. karina: coronavirus cases are declining and 46 states. 42 of those the average has fallen more than 6%. deaths are likely to keep rising at a rapid pace. meanwhile, republicans are showing little appetite for another virus stimulus bill. the top economic advisor will meet with a bipartisan group of lawmakers. some of public and say it is difficult to justify the $1.9 trillion price tag since congress already passed and billion dollars relief package. bikers in london and being told to face the fact. a post-brexit deal is a distant prospect. >> there is no re-creating the single market for financial services for the united kingdom
when they have decided to leave the single market. so what i'm saying here very quickly is change is coming. karina: she says it it is ineligible -- inevitable brexit will hinder access. powered by more than 27 hundred journalists. i'm karina mitchell. francine: tliv. we continued -- thank you. we continue to track covid-19 with andrew pekosz. that is coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is bloomberg. tom: "bloomberg surveillance," good morning. francine lacqua and tom keene. thrilled you are with us. so much to talk about here. without the distraction in washington, it seems that there is many two weeks of real tilt of politics in america and we really look at the politics and the medicine of this pandemic. the numbers are jaw-dropping. there are different ways to look at it. hong kong insubstantial lockdown. germany was in difficult numbers. monitoring this in brussels, maria -- what is the european distinction today? maria: what i would say it's a noun -- is they are now prepping the ground for another lockdown.
every government agreed to the outlook is bleak, and it may mean more researchers are to come. this is a huge whiplash because a few weeks ago there was celebration, excitement. you member the media circus the european commission put on. now they say we can't forget about that and go into something that looks like a full lockdown for longer. it is that concern on the mutation. it is serving as a cautionary tale for the europeans. angela merkel really looks at the mutations and that is something she repeated yesterday to european leaders. tom: are lockdowns the same country to country? maria: they are not, and that is an issue. if you have a european passport -- it is not a matter of the country you are from.
if you are in germany right now, you are not able to go into anything that is nonessential. if you are in italy, it depends on the region. if you are in spain, you can go to a restaurant. that is creating a problem. european leaders said we need to coordinate better because this is not helping, one country going into shutdown, the other trying to stay open as much as possible. that is a concern. different degrees of lockout, but the virus stays the same. francine: maria, freedom of movement was temporarily suspended last year for health reasons. will that no longer be the case question maria: yes, and politically, it is a bombshell -- if you tell europeans you cannot get into other countries freely, it is a huge shock. my generation has grown up with that.
removing the freedom of modes -- movement is fundamental. they do want to strengthen checks at the border. if they do that, it is significant and symbolic for a continent like europe that presence up on the fact we don't really have borders. francine: l of the shock of not been able to go from france to italy is greater than being able to leave your front door. maria tadeo joining us with the latest from brussels on the eu. joining us to talk about covid and vaccinations, andrew pekosz johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health -- director. a number of questions about vaccinations, how quickly make -- we can be followed. what does the u.s. need right now? andrew: the u.s. needs to scale
up the ability to get needles into people's arms. vaccine manufacturing seems to be on schedule in terms of generating enough vaccine. each week there is more and more available. what we need to focus on is a mess vaccination program. the biden administration made a few announcements that will facilitate that. we need to make sure people are getting their vaccine, get them on the prescribed dose because we know the prescribed dosing will give us that 90% to 95% protection rate that will really make an impact, the fall in terms of the covid-19 pandemic. francine: how critical is the j&j vaccine if it is a proof because it is one single dose? andrew: the caveat is we have not seen the data, but a single dose of vaccine and one that
does not have the cold chain that the moderna and pfizer vaccines require will improve our ability to vaccinate people. it will allow us to go to more rural places, set up more vaccination centers because we won't have those limitations of having those very cold, -70 celsius freezer's around to make sure the vaccine is stored properly. i'm looking forward to seeing that data because it will dramatically improve the vaccination campaign if it is efficacious. francine: i know you need to look at charts because you are basically competing with the number of people vaccinated, the number of infections, and the number of people that end up in hospitals. is there a magic number -- you have to get this many people back to it in this number of days? andrew: -- vaccinated in this number of days? andrew: the models based on the older, not new variants, with
suggest 70% of the adult population needs to be vaccinated to make a significant impact on the spread of sars covid 2. models are working to see how these new variant that have increased transmissions have played into that, but i still think that is a great goal. 70% of the adult population, if we can do that by september we will be set to make an important impact on the spot of the virus come the next fall, winter season. francine: do we have any figures -- the pfizer vaccine -- how immune are you to it before you get the second does? andrew: the clinical trial suggests there is an efficacy of about 50% after the first dose. immune responses are there in a majority of people but they are significantly lower than after the booster dose, and that is important from a virology
standpoint because we really want to get people to a high level of immunity as fast as possible. when you have a large population with moderate amounts of immunity, that is usually a recipe for the virus to be able to have variants emerge that are resistant to those antibodies. we want to move from low immunity to high immunity as soon as possible and that is what the pfizer and vaccine -- moderna vaccine schedules allow us to do. francine: we heard yesterday that -- dr. fauci relieved that the administration listens to the science. the u.s. citizens follow that, and trust scientists more? andrew: i hope so. certainly the numbers i have seen about vaccine acceptance have been increasing lately. i think this new administration, with a new focus on emphasizing the science, bringing the
science forward, following the signs, and to be honest, the leadership that reminds everybody of all the things we're supposed to be doing to limit the spread is quite invigorating and it is refreshing to see the attitude even though it has only been a few days since the new administration has taken place. i love the executive orders going out because they take care of the short, medium and long-term needs to control the pandemic and i think we will be moving forward into a new phase where we can really get better control of this and allow ourselves to come back to some normal semblance of living in a few months. francine: thank you so much. he is of johns hopkins. you can also tune in every day for exclusive conversations for -- with johns hopkins experts. coming up, the interview -- don't miss it, it: 30 a.m. in
karina: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm karina mitchell. bank of america will pay staff special bonuses for working through the pandemic. those that make $100 or less will get -- $100,000 or less will get $750. higher paid employees will get a stock rewarded. meanwhile, jamie dimon one without a raise. jpmorgan cap the ceo compensation at $31.5 million, the same as it was in 2019. that a $25 million restricted stock award tied to performance. jpmorgan made more money in the fourth quarter than it ever has in a three-month period, and the richest person in the world is offering up $100 million. that is what elon musk says he will pay for the best carbon capture technology. the entrepreneur made the announcement on twitter and send
details would come next week. he is cofounder of electric carmaker tesla, which surged as stock took off. francine: a lot going on in the markets. we see a bit of movement when it comes to bond yields not only in italy, but also germany. stocks in new york sliding along with u.s. equities futures. we saw coronavirus cases denting the optimism we saw in recent days. the dollar strengthening for the first time this year. the british pound weakening after boris johnson says the u.k.'s third lockdown could last into the summer. lo for italian bond yields as well. moorts of possible early elections. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> we are in a wartime situation and in a situation like this you do whatever it takes. >> you don't really have to worry about inflation. >> heads are doing what they need to do, which is to revive an economy. >> this will be an excellent year for growth. >> the public still has money in reserves. >> i think it will be enormous spending in this country. i think the boom is coming. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jon ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: with equity futures retreated, there is only one game in town, the handling of the pandemic. tom: above the full on every paper and i would