tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg January 27, 2021 2:00am-4:00am EST
♪ matt: good -- anna: good morning. i'm anna edwards, live in london alongside matt miller in berlin. matt: good morning. the market say the risks are mixed. european stocks point to a negative open amid earnings. a fed meeting as well. the cash trade is less than an hour away. the reddit rally. gamestop's value surges past $10
billion after a name check from elon musk on momentum from online day traders. hedge funds also see their long positions under attack. a sobering moment for boris johnson. the u.k. becomes the first european country to report 100,000 coronavirus deaths. the prime minister insists the government did everything it could. and the fed wraps up its first meeting of 2021 today. jerome powell is likely to be cautious about tapering asset purchases. didn't want to pop any bubbles. we are an hour away from the start of cash trading in europe. let's take a look at the futures this morning in terms of european stocks. we see futures that are all pointing down. not a lot of size here. ftse futures are down the most, one third of 1%. take a look at u.s. futures. a more mixed picture. nasdaq futures are gaining 0.5%
this morning. s&p 500 many contracts are unchanged. dow jones minis are down 1/10 of 1%. want to bring you some breaking news on in post. that stock was priced at 16 euros a share. trading in amsterdam at the top end of the range. a 16 euros per share. we will talk about that more later in the program. anna: this is the first ipo to price in europe in 2021. it's the largest deal -- if this is a technology business, using technology to arrange postal lockers for you, you see similar things in other parts of the world. getting your online delivery delivered to a postal locker. this polish business provides this. if you consider a technology,
it's the largest, a very substantially sized ipo. it's the largest ever central european ipo. it's pricing in amsterdam. we will talk to the ceo later on this morning. let's get back to the markets. you've been through the futures picture. in terms of the equity markets globally, we are flat on the msci asia pacific. we are treading water a little bit now and the global equity story. flat on the msci asia pacific. variation depending on which markets closed yesterday. after gains yesterday in europe, we are trading -- treading water. waiting for more detail about earnings seasons. tech stocks rising to the four again. that continues to be what we are talking about and asking questions about.
gloomy milestones aplenty with regards to covid. the u.s. and european futures are mixed as investors consider a slew of earnings reports and await the conclusion of a federal reserve policy meeting. joining us now is laura cooper. i have to start with the question of the day around tech. nasdaq futures are pointing higher today. i was looking at the largest technology stocks. if you put them altogether, though stocks are up at levels we haven't seen soup september. after playing the value trade a little bit, it seems that investors are back to trading tech. what are we expecting from this earnings season? laura c.: this reflation
euphoria. what we are watching for today is whether we see sizable earnings and sales beats that are going to continue to paint a picture of high profit growth. i would expect that tech is likely to outperform in the week. this is against a backdrop of just a challenging virus condition. these stocks tend to be a haven. the risk is, can they actually beat upbeat market expectations? double-digit gains are anticipated across the tech space. there are headwinds ahead. tesla had plants shut down earlier. is that a sign of stalling demand? how did the iphone 12 sales go? we are going to dig deeper into the commentary beyond those headline numbers. it's important for now. matt: some of the tech
outperformance i've been watching, shares of nokia, shares of blackberry. not sure if gamestop is continued a deck stock. it has been fascinating to watch this david and goliath story. it looks like david is winning. what do you make of that? laura c.: [laughter] it is quite remarkable watching the price action. you have to wonder whether there is excessive risk taking that could fill -- spillover. it's remarkable that it is challenging conventional wisdom. the fact that the retail crowd is now targeting short-sellers who typically tend to outperform. they are seem to be the experts in terms of anticipating future cash flow. that is clearly being challenged. this does reflect options frenzy, no commission platform. there is likely not an end in sight for now. it also points to the power of
the retail crowd. this isn't just a homogenous crowd following momentum buyers. those are potentially pockets of savvy investors that are really angry at this. they are targeting them and squeezing them. anna: angry it seems. hedge funds seeming to have to battle this retail crowd on a number of fronts. we will return to that, about whether this is legal and whether entered buddy -- anybody is being fooled. let me ask you about something else that is big today. that's the fed. weeks ago, we were talking about the fed language that keeps coming up around tapering and asking, what is the message that the fed is trying to communicate here? you see a lot of talk about
bubbles in various markets popping up. you wonder how the fed is going to handle the language today. laura c.: i think the press conference will be the highlight of the day. he's likely to overlook this excessive risk-taking. these potential frothy bubbles emerging. ultimately, they want to avoid any kind of 2013 tantrum scenario. he's likely to continue to support this easy accommodative backdrop. given the virus has yet to be contained. we are seeing that way on the labor market. powell has stated that now is not the time to talk about exit. i would expect him to balance this fine line between upbeat growth prospects. fiscal stimulus is coming. you have the vaccine rollout. not to get too excited about any tapering talks now, because there are a number of near-term
challenges to face. markets will certainly depend on the tone. also the comments around exiting this policy, given what we are seeing in pockets of euphoria in the stock market. matt: you have to keep markets convinced that yields don't rise. what is the growth outlook alongside all of this stimulus and low rate environment? laura c.: certainly, we saw the imf upgrade their forecast yesterday. if we look at what economists are expecting, they do see this wave of fiscal spending likely pushing u.s. gdp to that 5-6% range this year. this is overheating potentially later in the year. that remains to be seen. the concern is that markets are front really a lot of that. we've seen yields back -- bounce
back above 1% since the last fed meeting. if we look at market expectations of inflation, those are at the highest since 2018. any kind of comments, markets are quick to move. whether we actually see realized gains and growth were inflation, markets could dictate what the worst to do. -- fed is forced to do. anna: up next, gamestop surges another 41%. we continue to cover the story for you. we discuss the army of reddit users who say they are taking on the hedge fund tightens. what is the next big thing online? we speak to the ceo of some internet companies. what are they looking to hold? great voice to have when it comes to the stay-at-home and recovery economy. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. we are 47 minutes away from the start of cash trading. i mixed picture in terms of future is now with cac futures turning higher. ftse futures still down 4/10 of 1%. let's get the bloomberg first word news from laura wright in london. laura: the eu is trying to resolve its standoff with astrazeneca over vaccine delays. officials are calling on national governments and the commission to demand the company meet its commitments. astra says it's agreement did not specify a number of doses because the eu insisted on getting the vaccine about the same time as the u.k.. despite ordering at three months later. global coronavirus cases have
topped 100 million. the u.k. is now the first country in europe with over 100,000 deaths. fatalities are already 500 -- five times the levels they said would be a good outcome for britain. almost 3.7 million people in the u.k. have now tested positive. the european central bank is studying its differences in policy with the federal reserve on boosting the euro. bloomberg sources tell us policymakers are worried euro strength is depressing inflation already below zero. it could force the central bank to provide more stimulus. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna: thank you. gamestop's rally has surged past $10 billion with shares nearly doubling. that comes after elon musk name checked the stock, building upon
day traders who are fighting against huge levels of short interest. it is weighing on hedge funds who are also seeing their long positions targeted by the retail crowd. we are joined by thanos papasavvas. good to speak to yield -- you this morning. let's start with whether you see this as a sign of something bigger. hedge funds feeling as though their short positions are under attack. you start to wonder where the money is going to come from to cover margin calls. do you see this as indicative of bubbles or is this an 80th syncretic -- idiosyncratic phenomenon? thanos: i think it's a little bit of both. on the one side, this is unprecedented levels of liquidity. we've never seen this. continuous support from a fiscal and monetary point of view. very low levels of volatility in this post-covid time.
this accentuates the interest in pursuing this from the retail community. it does make the hedge fund investors a little bit more cautious. including ourselves. we have been pro inflationary growth, pro-risk since last spring. more recently, we've become a little bit cautious. we find ourselves in them and love consensus. the market seems to believe that all this fiscal and monetary stimulus will be here to stay. we agree with that. the issue is, it doesn't price in any potential risks in terms of vaccines or logistics. matt: what do you make -- there's been a lot of talk about the democratization of the market. i'm not sure this represents it. that was a tenet of bitcoin. it was a very libertarian community. maybe still is. also has its own issues with the's loft of the transaction
time. also the massive amount of energy used to mine it. thanos: that's a very topical issue. no one was talking about bitcoin back in the summer when it was 5000 or 6000. suddenly, everyone is talking about it since it started moving up. in our view, bitcoin represents very negative yesterday credentials. whether it's electricity usage, or the various accesses to whether it's a good economy, whatever. also on the g side, in terms of the supply, the lack of governments, the security. it scores very badly on esg. we are raising that is a point. whoever wants to mine bitcoins, they should also be cognizant of the negative factors that it has. anna: that's bitcoin. if you don't think the market is
acknowledging risks enough, where could there be bubbles at this point? how close might we be to the top in any of those bubbles? i read a piece by one of our colleagues who was looking at the percentage of stocks that have been rallying more than 10%. he did some analysis. it suggests it's like 1999 but not like the end of that year. it's not like 2000 or 2001. is that something that gives you reason to pause? thanos: it's partly that. it's partly the levels of vibration where we are. very low levels of volatility. it was a canary in the mine. if we look at the fix, it was back down at 20% which is the lowest part of the range. i believe that we cannot start breaking through that. it would represent lack of any concern on the economic side and on the vaccine side.
i expect there to be a negative surprise in q1 and q2. we can see the commitment of the policymakers towards that and avoiding an economic crisis becoming a sociopolitical prices. we had these recently. the populist uprisings. the polishes should know what they want to of i'd -- politicians know what they want to avoid. there's more surprise. that is the canary which triggered a little bit of caution in the near term. matt: we will continue talking about this, whether or not policymakers are doing all the heavy lifting. a lot of it has to do with reliance on a recovery. that depends a lot on the vaccine rollout and mutation of this disease. speaking of that issue, global
♪ matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. we are 38 minutes away from the start of cash trading. futures mixed year in terms of european futures. euro stock futures are down a little. nasdaq futures are up 5/10 of 1%. global coronavirus cases surpass 100 million according to data compiled by johns hopkins university. the u.k. became the first nation
in europe with 100,000 deaths. the european union will try to resolve a standoff with astrazeneca over vaccine delivery delays. thanos papasavvas. he is still with us. what do you think about -- you know, there is growing worry about the pace of this vaccine rollout. to me, for the first time ever, developing a vaccine to a global pandemic in less than a year and starting to get it into people's arms seems pretty quick. thanos: i'm totally with you. our benchmark was on the back of the bill and melinda gates foundation. it was a year ago when our expectations were falling. we thought it would take 18 months in the best case scenario for that to happen. we expect the vaccine to come through in september of 2021 at the earliest.
certainly ahead of the curve. congratulations to the various companies which have been dealing with that. it has been a pleasant surprise in terms of aligning alongside policymakers with the stimulus. that doesn't mean that from a stimulus point of view, we can ease off the gas. i think that we will continue alongside the vaccinations in order to deal with economic uncertainty, especially with potential mutations or logistical delays. anna: for the fed, who we will hear from later, that means they won't even begin to start to think about thinking about tapering. that will be the conversation in the first half of the year. would that be your view? thanos: exactly right. that was the quote from powell last year. we are not thinking about thinking about raising rates. i believe that the fed will be moving to the front foot once the level of inflation starts having a three handle to it. whether it's 3.4 or 3.6.
at that point, we will start to be more aggressive on the fed. i don't see that happening until towards the end of this year. matt: i found the question, what economic recoveries look like and how investors play them, fascinating over the past couple days. anna pointed out a chart that i think we have put together showing the s&p's best performance from the pmi bottom. the best recovery on the s&p which was 1998 to 12 -- 2001. the worst recovery from a pmi bottom which was 2001 2 2004. it shows where we are now. although we are doing better than the average recovery in terms of stock market gains since the pmi bottom, it isn't more than the best. i wonder, traders now aren't
going to have played an economic recovery bore -- before except the flat ones over the past 20 years. is it going to be different this time? i swear we have this chart. dobry anna? thanos: the way we are looking at it is not only on the price. it's also from valuations point of view. one of the indicators we turn to is warren buffett syndicator. the overall market capitalization of the stock market over gross national product. from that level, we are at well above overextended levels. this is not an absolute morning light so as to be negative on the s&p. it is a relative warning light. we prefer china, europe, u.k. to the u.s.. anna: thanks so much. interesting talk.
anna: welcome back to the european market open, minutes away, a half-hour away from the start of the european equity session. futures pointing nowhere in the u.s., fairly flat. european futures have to catch up with some losses. nasdaq futures actually pointing to the upside. laura: hsbc is defending itself against accusations that it is a tool of the chinese authority. speaking to u.k. lawmakers, they say the bank had no option but
to close the account of annex hong kong lawmaker, saying it was driven by the need to comply with local laws. the bank says it is troubled by recent unrest in the city. bloomberg sources say unicredit set to unveil a new ceo replacing jean-pierre boost ea. . he started his career at goldman sachs and helped arrange and create the bank he is about to lead. that is your bloomberg business flash. matt: 2020 was the year of the stay-at-home economy. so far it looks like 2021 is as well, but if we get out of locked down at some point, will we change our behavior is a question businesses are asking.
we are joined now by bob van dijk, ceo, prosus. prosus hold your consumer internet assets outside of south africa, it is a tech heavy and obviously has a bunch of holdings that i guess do well in a situation where we stay-at-home and live remotely. is that the case? bob: that is absolutely right, the reality is when we are forced to sit on our couches and in our kitchens, people want to do as much with the world around them. they grabbed their phones and laptops and started using online models more than before. we have seen people for the first time order products at home start ordering food at home , get involved in online payments. it has been an intense few months dealing with a lot of new use cases. anna: what are you looking
forward to? what are you excited about in 2021 with the stay-at-home economy? we have talked about food deliveries, education online. in my household is doing more of those things. what excites you about 2021? bob: what excites me the most is not being at home so much going forward. i'm dying to get out there again. what we have seen is people who use these models for the first time -- like your family, you are not alone -- we see people getting excited doing these things online. we want people to have a more normal life but if we do a good job, we are giving them more convenience. these models make people's lives better, now we have to make sure it works for people going forward as well. matt: what are you banking on in the recovery?
i'm thinking of online travel, which obviously has been decimated for 12 months, but there must be pent up demand plus savings that will equal a windfall for airlines, hotel bookings, etc. bob: absolutely. we have been in a great circumstance with our business that we are basically focused on helping people do things online that they otherwise could not. there are other models we are depending on that have suffered, like travel. our business has been resilient in performing well along. we have been blessed that way. i think we will see really meaningful recovery. in the travel sector, people are dying to get out there. some of our businesses, we are a significant player in online
payments in markets like india were travel spending has been decimated. we made up for that in other sectors, but when travel gets back on, it will be helpful for us as well. anna: let me ask about other parts of your portfolio. when you own a large stake in a business near a $1 trillion stake, that gets people's business. you do trade with a discount to china's tencent, what are you looking at to fix that? bob: i think the most important thing, and it was clear in our last results, that we have over the years built other great businesses that were initially small, and in most cases consuming a lot of money for many years, and are now looking to be sizable and becoming profitable, and more visible to investors.
oh that over time is what i spend most of my time on. if you look at other businesses, despite tencent, others are growing faster. over time that will set things straight. there are dynamics around our size on the johannesburg stock exchange, where we are 30% of the specs index, and unusual number, that leads to trading dynamics that do not help us with the discount. in time we will see if we can mitigate some of that. matt: one of the great things about making more money is you can buy more stuff. you were active in the m&a scene in 2020. i wonder if you think we will see an active m&a scene in 2021,
and do you plan on paying a part -- playing a part? bob: the year is off to an active start. activity levels are very high in technology in general. that will drive a lot of activity companies looking for ways to work more together. there will be more consolidation. we are actively looking at new opportunities. we have done a few investments in agricultural technology, one area we are excited about. it is basically a huge part of society where technology, and there is a lot of opportunity out there. technology applications is a relatively new sector where we will be at. anna: thank you very much, bob
van dijk, ceo, prosus. let's talk about something much discussed this week. gamestop's stock nearly doubled in exchange hours, then rallied another 40% in after-hours trading. it now the battle has turned into one of reddit day traders. how much of a headache is this causing for hedge funds? it seems it is not just a short positions that are under attack but the long positions as well. dani: it is the way the long positions are under attack, the shorts are starting to rally but hedge fund longs are falling is because they are having to sell some stocks they own to cover those losses from what is happening in the shorts.
what really has developed on these reddit forums is a white knight mentality that we will go after these hedge funds who have been manipulating the markets. hedge funds shorts over the past few days have rallied 15%. melvin capital has doubled down on gamestop, got a cash injection from steve cohen and ken griffin. there puts they filed with the fec have rallied an average of 19%. some of the most prominent hosts on -- posts on reddit say they will hold onto gamestop until it reaches $1000. this was followed up with a gif of the movie "300." they can do this because they
are putting on leverage bets via calls that cost a dealer to take the other side and by the underlying shares. anna: it is a fascinating battle developing here, and one that many in the market are asking -- is this legal? is what is happening on this reddit forum legal? i read this informative piece on the bloomberg talking about how people are not being misled, they are just saying by it because it is a fun thing to do -- buy it because it is a fun thing to do. what is the latest you are hearing whether this will face a legal challenge? dani: it is an extremely gray area. one of the precedents set on a pump and dump is that there needs to be something that caused an illegitimate cause in supply and demand that are artificial, but who is to say what is legitimate supply and demand?
with other countries, do its best to assist countries and regions less prepared for the pandemic. >> some countries have gone beyond and acquired four times what their population needs. >> we will not get support in any country, if you are giving away vaccines and the most vulnerable is not vaccinated. >> this will be an arduous road, uph battle, much more difficult than many think. anna: global leaders discussing the covid-19 pandemic at this year's virtual world economic forum. pfizer says vaccine nationalism is a lose-lose game. the ceo has told bloomberg it is too soon to suggest europe is behind in the distribution of vaccines. he said they would get more doses to the european union. >> political leaders tried to do
the best for their citizens. it is a difficult situation. that creates a lot of tension. the voices are getting louder. sometimes suggestions that are not prudent are on the table. i do not think it is a good idea even to insinuate in the global supply type of method that exists that someone can ban the exports of something like that. a lot of materials are needed to produce the vaccines come from other countries, so if one starts bans, that would be a lose-lose situation. what we are doing cooperatively with the european commission and state members is to increase dramatically the manufacturing capacity.
from 1.3 billion doses, we will be able to produce, and we announced right now we have a solid plan to produce more than 2 billion doses this year. as a result, we have not made additional agreements with the european commission, but we will provide them with 200 million additional doses, and 75 million will be in the second quarter. that is the promise we gave them, and we are in line to achieve it. i understand the concerns i understand that everybody wants something to help open the economy and save lives. a little bit of patience will allow us to do our job to
provide this for everyone. >> with fears of taking the vaccine, will what do you do to combat those, or is that a job for the government? >> it is a job for everyone, a job for you was a journalist, a job for the government, and a job of us. those who have fears, i understand, but they need to think when it comes to vaccines, the decision to take it or not will not affect only their own lives, they will affect the lives of others. it will affect the lives of people they love the most, the people they socialize with the most. if you do not take the vaccine, you become the week link that allows the virus to mutate. think twice before you make such a decision. do not let the fear get in the way.
anna: that was the pfizer ceo albert bourla speaking to john micklethwait here at bloomberg. u.k. has over 100,000 deaths, the first country in europe. boris johnson says he accepts responsibility. >> we truly did everything we could, and continue to do everything we can to minimize the loss of life and suffering in what has been a difficult stage and crisis for our country. anna: a lot of yesterday was spent not on new measures or talking about, it was spent reflecting on 100,000 lives lost. a difficult one for the prime
minister to deal with, as we saw him having to answer questions yesterday. >> a very different boris johnson on display, downbeat and somber in tone. none of the optimism we associate with him, no talked about how we will get out of the situation, just on that awful death toll, butoppinn apology. we heard his claim that his government did everything they could -- that is coming back to haunt him slightly. questions about the speed of the government in the first lockdown, and this current lockdown, while the death rate remains high, if the government acted sooner, could that have been brought down? these are questions boris johnson will have to face in the coming months. matt: does the government get
credit for doing a good job with the vaccine rollout. every country's national media thanks there government is doing the worst job, but the u.k. is unquestionably ahead of its european peers. >> that is certainly true, and the one bright spot in the government's record on this. there is a spat in the european union with astrazeneca. interviews yesterday pointed out they were three months ahead of the european union negotiating that contract, that explains why they have so much supply. yes, a bright spot. mr. johnson, now you can expect the government to pivot the focus away from the horrific death toll onto the rapid progress on the vaccination. there is a question about the
high numbers of people getting the first dose, but nevertheless we are hoping in the government is helping to see a change in high hospitalizations and the death rate. you can imagine the government will latch onto that and see that they can get ahead of this pandemic. matt: that is a great point about second doses. scientists and doctors are recommending diversion from the schedule. our senior executive at her on the death toll in the u.k.. coming up, stocks to watch including luxury companies after lvmh earnings beat expectations. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open." we are six minutes from the start of cash trading. let's get over to dani burger with your stocks to watch. before the break, we said we would kick it off with luxury stocks. dani: lvmh reporting sales of leather goods and fashion up 18%, that is a solid beat. wall street and analysts had seen a gain of 11%, strong demand from china's customers who are at home instead of traveling because of travel restrictions. luxury goods stocks possibly rallying on the good results of lvmh. we have to keep and i on in -- eye on inpost. a pretty good indication they
will trade at the higher end of their initial price. this company is seeing a boom from online shopping. they have automated lockers which are helping them. finally, we cannot wrap up stocks without talking about possible reddit moves, because it is targeting short positions or anything melvin capital, and because of that they are short european stocks. they are short evo tech, and have the largest short of 6.2%. both stocks have rallied 10% in the past two days. if this trend continues, we could see gains in those. anna: in terms of inpost, we will speak to the ceo of that business.
anna: welcome back to the european market open. a minute until the start of cash equities trading for this wednesday morning. the reddit rally, gamestop's value surges past $10 billion after a name check from elon musk builds on momentum for day traders. long positions under attack. a sobering moment for boris johnson, the u.k. becomes the first european country to report 100,000 coronavirus debts. the prime minister -- deaths. the fed wraps up its first meeting of 2021 today.
jerome powell is likely to be cautious about tapering asset purchases. matt: let's look at futures this morning. a choppy picture in terms of european futures. cac futures rising, the dax futures down .3% and ftse futures are off more than .5% this morning. we see a mixed picture in terms of u.s. futures, so tech futures are higher with nasdaq futures up half a percent. dow jones futures are down .2%. here is the global macro movers screen, you can see the indexes in the far left column and it will populate. the ftse, the first out of the gate and down about 3%, but moving lower as i speak. it looks like we are getting disappointing open in london. you can see the dax has opened
up down .3%, the ibex down .3%, the cac, even after posting a plus in futures, down .1%. european markets generally opening down. there has been a lot of speculation around a market bubble, almost all of the most read stories over the past few days have been about that and the most read issue has been gamestop. in the u.s., the value of that brick and mortar videogame retailer past $10 billion with shares nearly doubling. that comes after big investors like elon musk name check the stock, also padilla said he was pushing the option -- buying the options, pushing reddit users to buy the stock and become owners to pump the shares, hold the
stock, not sell it. a big army of retail investors against giga wall street hedge funds, many of whom a seeing their long positions hit as well as their short positions. it is almost a social justice movement as well as a greedy scheme to get rich. joining us now is william hobbs, barclays wealth management cio. i don't mean to paint the idea of greedy people trying to get rich in a bad light, of course. that's why wall street in a lot of -- what wall street in a lot of ways is about, but it has never worked exactly like this, where people don't seem to care about the fundamentals at all. what do you make about the push behind gamestop and the liquidity that makes it possible? >> it is an interesting question. we talk about bubbles in markets, fundamentals will
always assert themselves eventually. there has to be a truth to the forecasts eventually and a lot of these companies, one of the things i think we are seeing in markets which is interesting is people are extrapolating what our lives or the changes to our working lives, social lives that we are seeing in this pandemic, what if those survive into the post pandemic world and to be honest, we've got to be more humble than many are being. we know much less about that world than we think we know. some argue we are tapping into the limitless potential of digital communication and inversely, we are discovering some of its limitations that much of the human experience cannot be replicated online. we want to be wary of assuming
what has happened during this pandemic will endure and to that extent, you want to be wary of some of those cash flow assumptions. some parts of the tech sector are driving on it. anna: let me ask you, this is just one story. it is fascinating, seems to be pushing up the stoxx that hedge funds like in various parts of the world and hedge funds like to not like, does this have broader implications for you or is it a sign of how much liquidity there is in markets. are you concerned about bubbles at this point? will: high think generally the proximity to the most famous big time market bubbles of 2000 and subprime, if you look at the last 15 years, you can name 10
or so mega bubbles. the big ones have to be rarer and most of the time -- there is an interesting study, the evolution of stock prices that showed quite amazingly that a doubling of the stock market tends to be followed by another year of decent gains rather than intermediate assumption -- an immediate assumption or reversion to a lower mean. what looks like exuberance to the hard-nosed investor often is a change in the underlying technology. however, if you look at some of those mega cap names in the u.s., i wouldn't use the word bubble, but the cash flow assumptions you need to make in order to make them work, the current prices leave very little margin for error and what you are finding, we are seeing buildup of antitrust risk overseas, digital taxation
threat, the risk in those big names is possibly increased a little bit, but that is a long way from calling it a bubble. matt: we put together a chart that we normally wouldn't be allowed to show, but hillary is out today, so let's bring that. anna pointed it out from a erg story and what it shows is your typical recovery from a recession is not maybe -- that's not it. i'm talking about the recovery chart. the s&p recovery chart. hillary loves this one. it is one line. i want one that looks like spaghetti so i have to walk will through it. we have a chart that shows from the low point in pmi's, you could see, like the white line, the recovery, a big jump in
the s&p 500. you can also see a drop like you did in 2001 and 2004. the blue line across the middle is the average s&p recovery from a recession as measured by the pmi bottom and we are not that far off the average here so while it feels frothy and feels bubble is this and we write a lot of stories about that, it doesn't seem out of the ordinary, but will a new trading generation, the kids on reddit who pretend not to be dads and baby boomers, they really seem like they are when you read through their posts. they won't have experienced this kind of recovery. do you think -- does it feel normal to you, to old people like us? will: old people, i've never felt older, i have to say. the point here is recession is a
less useful term than often advertised. the differences between recessions are more important and more informative than the common description. these recessions come about, parts of the global economy are misbehaving or out of shape, so recessions come along like the strict headmaster to get you back into shape but what that means, and you look at the last cycle, the buildup in subprime, took about a decade and what that meant was when you came to the recovery, after that heart attack, you had a lot of homework to do. you had homes to chew through, a global financial system to reorganize, but this recession was imposed on the economy to a certain extent by the pandemic
and measures that were implemented and the risk appetite, so in a sense, the world economy was reasonably healthy going into this recession. that means less homework on the way out, so a different recovery and the big difference in this economic cycle looking forward is the different academic consensus feeding into the government spending plan. the previous cycle, it was debt to gdp above 80%, long-term growth prospects. this time, telling us you should tune out that to gdp, it is not an apples to apples comparison. and the reverse is true. matt: so this time could be a little different. will, we will talk about that. will hobbs, barclays wealth management cio. i want to point out to the viewer's eye may confuse. i call out a lot of names on this program because there are so many people behind the scenes
that help us build it. it takes a village to raise a child and we have that in dobreonna, hillary, sebastian, laura, alice, george of hammerhead investments, all these people together and occasionally, although i know it is inside baseball, i like to shout out the names. anna: occasionally you do. some of them may like that. some of them don't. maybe we will check with the team. coming up on the program, global cases pass 100 million. the u.k. becomes the first nation in europe with 100,000 deaths from the virus. the latest on the virus and the vaccine next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european open." 13 minutes into the session, you can see light red arrows on the board, the ftse down .20 5%, the dax down one third of the percent but the cac 40, up .1%. a mixed picture. i want to show some of the stocks melding capital is shorting. the hedge fund that was
initially taken down by reddit and twitter retail investors who were shorting his gamestop position. they continue to do that and the movement in gamestop is amazing, but since he's been bailed out by ken griffin at sid adele and steve cohen, we are looking at his other short positions. evotec, varta, he's also sure those and as a result, it looks like everybody wants to get in on this in some way and they are bidding up though stocks. the question is, how long can you stay solvent when you have big billionaire friends? maybe a little longer than others, but when you are a massive horde of retail investors, you can outweigh that as we are seeing. global coronavirus cases have surpassed 100 million according to data compiled by johns hopkins university. the u.k. became the first nation in europe with 100,000 deaths.
let's discuss vaccines with our guest will hobbs, barclays wealth management cio. will, it does look like the u.k. -- this is obviously a tragic number and a very large number, 100,000 people in great britain have died from the coronavirus, but it does like the you -- look like the u.k. is doing well at rolling out the vaccine. are you concerned about the hick ups we've seen around the european rollout? will: we were sort of worried people were assuming too much on the vaccine rollout globally. these do some incredibly logistical operation, and it seems europe is accelerating again, which is great news and you are seeing that in the u.s. and around the world, and what we need really is for that to
continue, but from a markets perspective, and this is a cold, calculation but i'm not sure if the difference between reaching herd immunity in q3 and q4 will make a large difference in pricing because the price of stocks and indices discounted back to a present rate, the chips you take out of cash flows from a slightly delayed arrival at herd immunity is probably not that substantial, not going to be an instrumental or shouldn't be instrumental in your stocks more generally, but we need to reach herd immunity as soon as possible. we hope the vaccinations continue to accelerate as they have been in the last couple of weeks. anna: well, thank you for joining us this morning. will hobbs, barclays wealth
management cio. thank you for speaking with us. will will be continuing his conversation from bloomberg radio at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. matt and i will head there at the top of the hour. coming up, the parcel locker firm sword -- surged in amsterdam on its trading debut. we will speak to the ceo next. this is bloomberg. ♪
anna: welcome back to the european market open. 20 minutes into the trading session and european equity markets are fairly flat, down .1%. that hides variation. luxury stocks in focus in paris. cac 40 up .3%, the dax down by a similar margin. before going to break, we showed you some of the stocks melvin a shorting. -- is shorting. some of the shorts there on the move this morning, so that story continues. let's get to our next story. inpost soaring on its trading debut after the locker provider raised 2.8 billion euros in the company's ipo. inpost has seen its business bolstered by a shopping boom set off by lockdown.
joining us, the inpost ceo. great to speak with you and congratulations on the ipo. you must be pleased. i wonder if you can give your broad thinking on whether the performance we have seen from inpost this sustainable on the other side of the pandemic? >> good morning. my view is this will be sustainable. see a shift in consumer behavior and it will remain with us. that said, we envisaged the acceleration would be sustainable in my view is within five, six, maybe seven years, we will be 50/50 split in terms of online and iteration versus traditional retail. matt: matt miller here in berlin. what do you intend to do with the proceeds and how much do you need to invest to get to the
place you want to be with inpost locations? rafal: that was the secondary offer. we as a company are profitable and invest into growth. we have plans to replicate our successful business from poland, u.k., france, spain, and italy and that will be fully financed thanks to our resources and cash generation. we have the ability creating such an amazing business in poland. anna: let me ask about the valuation we are seeing. you were delisted in warsaw some time ago, or removed from th andere pricing structure -- and have come back with a different pricing structure. what has changed so much in three years that this higher price is justified? rafal: the listing was done and some have invested massively
into companies. this is a different company. today, this is a tech company. we are a tech enabler for e-commerce players. we are driving e-commerce revenue, retention, improving their ability to win market, so this is a completely different story today than it was in the past and that's also reflected by the valuation. matt: what is it -- i mean, it seems like everybody is a tech companies these days. i'm a big fan of mailboxes, etc., the ups store. what is it that separates your business from a mailbox etc.? rafal: we are truly very a unique business. our machines, our atm's, 24/7 access with very strong convenience, nps.
our nps and consumers is 71%. our peers of traditional logistics companies are at the level of 13. we have almost 6 million mobile app users, we just brought them to the mobile app within 12 months. you know, 66% of carbon dioxide emission reduction in urban areas and nearly 90% in rural areas. a very strong esg angle, great experience for users and that comes at a better cost advantage than traditional door to door. door to door delivery is not a sustainable business anymore because there are too many parcels being delivered to too many houses and that comes at a high cost and also in terms of the environmental impact which
is more and more important for everybody, to save our environment. anna: at least everybody is in at the moment, they are staying home because of the pandemic, which may be makes things easier in that regard. you talk in your perspective, the substantial share of your revenues that come from allegro, another business. we talked to them, based in warsaw, of course. this is a bit of a risk for your business. what are you trying to do to diversify that revenue? rafal: i perceive that in a different way. our friends from allegro, we have created a symbiotic relationship. they are growing thanks to our atm's penetration. our atm's penetration is supported by their growth, so i would say differently. two big champions coming from poland. allegro has a strong position in poland but we at inpost want to replicate that on other markets and that is a huge opportunity
that we have got in front of us and we are focused on this, and that is one of the ways we might diversify away from having just more than 99% of the revenue coming from the polish market. that is our answer, that is our goal, and that is our ambition, and we will deliver that. matt: thanks so much for joining us. rafal brzoska, inpost ceo on the date of the ipo, at the top of the range for 16 euros a share. coming up, we speak to the bank of israel governor. we will discuss the economic outlook for israel and measures to boost growth as that country has outperformed almost any other in the world in terms of its coronavirus vaccine rollout. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european open." 30 minutes into the trading day and right now, looking at red arrows. the dax is down .4%, the biggest loser across the continent. the cac is gaining .2%, the biggest winner. let's get the first word news with laura wright in london. laura: the eu is trying to resolve a standoff with astrazeneca over vaccine delays. officials are calling on national governments and the commission to demand the company meet its commitment. astrazeneca is pushing back,
saying the agreement did not specify a number on doses because the eu insisted on getting the vaccine the same time as the u.k. despite ordering it three months later. the european central bank is studying differences in policy with the federal reserve are boosting the euro. bloomberg sources telus policymakers are worried euro strength is depressing inflation, already below zero. it could force the central bank to provide more stimulus. former president donald trump looks to be headed toward a bristle in his second abatement trial. rand paul tried to declare the proceedings unconstitutional and was blocked by a 55-45 vote. it probably serves as a proxy for the verdict and is well short of the two thirds majority needed to convict. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt, anna? anna: laura wright in london. israel is at the forefront of the world's most aggressive vaccination campaign, with more than 30% of the population have received the first note and 40% having had the second. the country offers an early glimpse of what the life might be like if vaccinations become the norm in society. an interesting conversation to be had and on the economic front. for that, we turn to yousef gamal el-din who joins us with the governor of the bank of israel. yousef: 47 out of 100 people have gotten the job. israel being at the forefront of rolling out these vaccinations. let's talk about policy implications. we are joined by the governor of the bank of israel amir yaron. it is great to have you on the program. i want to get into whether the milestone you have reached in the vaccine rollout has led you
to update any of your economic forecasts at all. gov. yaron: thank you, yousef and thank you to the audience. yes, our forecasts are better. the faxed vast it -- the fast vaccination, israel is probably the leader per capita, has given us a light at the end of the tunnel for this process. we are certainly seeing our self toward the second quarter being in almost opening the economy as much as one can, and this, has long is the outlook batch process continues. at the same time, the mutations and morbidity rate, it takes us longer so one cannot be complacent about it and enforcement is important, as well. yousef: the major debate right
now is about stimulus around accommodation. as israel accelerates its recovery from the coronavirus, are you of the view that some of these emergency measures should be wound down sooner than later? gov. yaron: first of all, the bank of israel has been at the forefront in terms of saying it is important to have fiscal support at the early stages and we've been involved in almost all of them. right now, and in all of those, we've made the distinction that it is important to make them very targeted as opposed to just universal. the current plan -- i will not go into details on that, but as we are seeing the legacy, as we are seeing the economy bouncing back, one has to recognize all the way, the israeli economy has shown its agility. we saw the numbers coming out over the summer and early fall
better than we expected. that is partly why we are seeing an uptick in our forecasts. therefore, the emphasis should be on growth that will only provide a bigger move into the recovery. yousef: governor, the shekel, it has weakened about 5% in the span of two weeks? that comes after the central bank decided to step in with an unprecedented fx intervention program. i listen to the folks at the imf and they are saying these kinds of measures should be limited. were you caught a little surprised by the scale of the move in the currency market? gov. yaron: first of all, the shekel has appreciated in many ways through 2021, partly due to good reasons. people are seeing the israeli economy being strong. large current account surplus, large fdi, buyouts of high-tech companies, but sector has
shielded the israeli economy in many ways. these are all good reasons. yes, this is a crisis period and crisis periods require unique measures, strong measures. there is a lot of uncertainty, even as we are exiting out. there are temporary factors. our imports have shrunk by 15%. they will come back as we are exiting this so in lieu of this, we opted in this announcement, certainty in a very uncertain environment about our commitment and the scope of doing this. this is consistent with our monetary policy, supporting inflation targeting and taking measures or possibly over appreciation that will damage the economy. yousef: governor, in terms of the economy's resilience, it is
dependent on tech and there is a debate underway right now about froth in tech, the extraordinary developments of the gamestop saga and the potential disruptions that could come from that. are you concerned at this point about these developments? gov. yaron: i think as a central banker, i'm very careful about talking specifics about the market, but in general, markets are forward-looking and some of the steps that have been done by central banks as well as the fiscal stimulus allows the market to perhaps look beyond the current situation. first, provide support to the economy in a real sense, and in many ways allow the market to overlook the current situation and to look into forward-looking as to where the economy will be
and there is a lot of emphasis as we are seeing in terms of labor reallocation toward tech and that is what the market is looking at and that is the reason for the long-duration. i wouldn't exactly want to be in a position to say where it should be at this point. yousef: briefly, a question from one of our viewers. this came in on the ib, how much weight do you place on calls from the export high-tech sectors that the shekel is too strong? is the bank of israel in a position to address these concerns are not? gov. yaron: the bank of veins real -- bank of israel is independent. at the same time, we always have conversations with all of the members of the economy. our analysis about our steps encompasses all aspects of the economy, and the steps that i mentioned about the fx takes that into account, and that is
true not just about the fx. it is true about all the arsenal , we've done enormous amounts of monetary throughout the crisis. it is part of our large arsenal of tools and these have been partly developed here, but also the outcome of where we see the need, for example, supporting sme. that has been very -- we have taken very steps to support that so on the one hand, we have contacts with all of the economy. i think it is important. at the same time, we take steps according to our professional analysis. yousef: governor, it has been a real pleasure. thank you for carving out time in your business schedule. that was governor amir yaron from the bank of israel. anna: thanks for bringing us that conversation this morning. yousef gamal el-din speaking to the governor of the bank of israel. back to the gamestop story, it
the dax loses ground, .4% and luxury names doing ok in paris. the cac 40, up .3%. let's get the business flash with laura wright. laura: hsbc is defending itself against accusations it has become a tool of the chinese authorities. speaking to u.k. lawmakers, the ceo says the bank had no option but to close the accounts of an exiled hong kong lawmaker, saying it was driven by the need to comply with local laws. the bank says it is troubled by the recent unrest in the city. >> if the question was am i willing to walk away from hong kong? the answer is no. we are too committed as an institution through our heritage and our history. we believe firmly in the economy and the communities and we want to continue to help it develop. laura: while grounds -- walgreens has named its new ceo, the only black woman leading an
s&p 500 company. she will be charged with turning around the sprawling pharmacy empire. unicredit is set to appoint its new ceo, replacing john p or most -- john pierre. he started his career at goldman sachs before joining merrill. that is your bloomberg business flash. matt: thanks very much, laura wright in london with your business flash. the skyward march in gamestop continues to accelerate. the stock nearly doubled during exchange hours and then rallied another 40% in after-hours trading. when i look at the german shares, they are up another 100% today. the battle has turned into one of reddit today traders versus hedge fund heavyweights. joining us to discuss is bloomberg's dani burger.
i mean, how much of a problem is this causing billionaire hedge fund investors? dani: i think you might even be thinking of melvin capital to be specific? for anyone not paying attention, read it has taken this message board forum, specifically looking at melvin capital. they are a hedge fund that has doubled down on their short bet against gamestop and reddit has adopted this mentality of we are going to take on these hedge funds titans and because of that, they have bid up these names melvin is short like game stop. the most shorted stocks have risen the past 15 days. if you are melvin, you need to borrow -- you are -- perhaps
because they are selling them to fund these bets. we see companies in europe melvin capital specifically has a short position they have reported to regulators. those are rallying as much as 8%, so perhaps they are closing out shorts and other hedge funds on a squeeze, to maybe fund their u.s. positions but all these stocks hedge funds like to short, we are seeing this activity and we are in an environment if you are a hedge fund manager and publicly come out against a stock or a short seller, do you have this risk the reddit army will turn against you? this is a completely different risk that hedge fund managers are having to deal with. i can't imagine it is one they are necessarily prepared for. anna: i wonder if some are trying to turn this to their advantage and wonder what they can do with this reddit army if they can attract their attention for positive reasons. i will be fascinated by the
legalities of this. a great piece on the bloomberg, funny, long, complicated as to whether this is legal or not. in sum, it is a complete gray area. matt referred to a case where hedge fund managers were going to dinner and sharing stock trading ideas. is that illegal? the fcc said no. maybe they will approach this in similar manner. matt: thanks very much. it is a fascinating story. i should point out, gabe plotkin , not a confirmed billionaire but his friends are and they were the ones who had to bail him out after the first short squeeze pushed by wall street bets, which is actually attempting a yaht reallocation. a bonus bonanza for investment makers in asia. morgan stanley is leading the
pack with total compensation rising by 20% and 15% respectively. the goldman ceo david solomon has seen his pay package shrink. the board has cut his annual compensation 36% following the 1mdb bribery scandal. he will earn a mere $17.5 million for the year. joining us is bloomberg's u.k. reporter. why did solomon's pay get cut? how involved was he in 1mdb? tom: he's carrying the can in some ways. he was obviously not ceo at the time, but it did fall within the investment bank and it goes to show the reverberations coming through from that unprecedented justice department ruling under the huge $5 billion fine goldman paid. as you say, it is rare to see pay cuts.
this is a real big slap down, more than one third of his pay and given these investment bankers are competitive, he is probably looking quite jealously at some of his rival ceos. anna: what about others in the banking sector? the more rank-and-file banking community. how are they doing? tom: today, as we hear his pay in cut 30%, morgan stanley and goldman are seeing pretty much the biggest bonus bumps among bankers in asia, so their giant bonuses are up 20%. morgan stanley. 15% at goldman sachs and that is even stronger than the folk on wall street desks. matt: thanks very much for joining us. we like to keep up with the big banker pay. tom metcalf from bloomberg news our u.k. finance reporter.
our growth in the back half of the year. >> we are only safe when europe is safe. providing covid vaccine to anyone around the world. >> we have the tools, but we will make covid like the flu. that means it will disturb neither our lives on the social, or the economy. >> the light at the end of the tunnel, we have a political cycle over with, a new administration, and intense focus on getting us through the crisis in terms of what is going on with the rollout of vaccine. >> we have enhanced treatment protocols that most of 2020 we didn't have. we have much more testing availability and rapid testing and more accurate testing, which for most of 2020, didn't. we have a better understanding of the virus. anna: ceo voices, some of the ceos on the vaccine rollouts and their optimism for a return to normal as part of the davos
agenda and the year ahead. joining us, simon flint, emerging market strategist and interesting what is going on in markets, stocks a little lackluster in europe but the tech rally looks set to continue stateside. nasdaq futures, up again,. we thought come november and the announcement on vaccines and the successes of vaccines, maybe the tech rally might pause, but we seem to be back to that theme. simon: absolutely, though i have to say most readers seem to think we are experiencing a bubble. they are saying tesla is 200 times p, so any results we get won't be enough to justify these sorts of valuations. on the other hand, and this is something maybe i would agree with, most other investors or minority of investors say look,
if you take into account yield on u.s. treasuries, corporate credit, valuations at least at the markets as a whole look ok, so the key is for u.s. rates to remain low to sustain the stock market rally. matt: absolutely. it wouldn't be the first time market watchers have called tesla a bubble or said pe was ridiculously high. i've been hearing that mantra for years and years. simon, the rates piece is so important. what do you expect from the fed? simon: well, hopefully, it will be quite quiet. there are a couple of hawkish risks, i think. the first of them, since the last fomc, expectations of fiscal stimulus have increased quite significantly, so there is some risk that is reflected at least in what powell says. another possible risk is that powell acknowledges that
inflation expectations have gone up significantly. you can see that both on market-based measures and survey-based measures, so those are two risks, and the final thing critically to look out for is what he says about the sentence in the fed statement about substantial further progress, because this is what taper is tied to. he's bound to be asked to be define that and is my guess is he will leave it fairly vague because they don't have consensus yet on the committee. anna: thanks for joining us. simon flint, bluebirds emerging market strategist. reflections on the markets, tech stocks, valuations, and a look ahead to the fed decision. we will bring you full coverage of all news out of the federal reserve later on. that is it for the european market open. "surveillance" is next. european equity markets, divided about increasingly negative.