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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  January 29, 2021 2:00am-4:00am EST

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anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i'm anna edwards live in london alongside matt miller in berlin. matt: good morning. today, the markets say mania contained. meme stocks soared in overnight trade but markets look set to slump ahead of gdp data from germany and spain. the cash trade is an hour away.
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these are your top headlines. robinhood's ceo tells bloomberg his company restricted buying of certain stocks to protect its own financial position. gamestop shares rallied back after hours as the broker reinstates a limited trading. the eu is set to tighten rules on the export of coronavirus vaccines, a major escalation amid a war of words with astrazeneca. and sap's quality tricks surges -- surges. we will speak with the ceo in just 30 minutes time. anna: let's get some breaking news. we've got numbers out from h&m. we are deep into earnings season in the u.s., here in europe as well and globally. q4 pretax, this is in swedish krona, 3.6 7 billion swedish krona.
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they say there is good prospects of a cash dividend. they still see in 2021 net new stores of about -- i think that's about -250. h&m to come back with the date and level for resuming the dividend, so clearly some information we need to get from them on that. of course, they, like many other nonessential, being retailers, not currently at full operations , they reported just a couple of days ago they have about 1800 stores temporarily closed globally due to the virus. in early january, it was 1600. we wait for further information around that dividend. matt? matt: i just want to -- you know what? if we stay with fashion for just a second. i guess it's fashion? kind of a blast from my past and
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i am almost 50 years old. when i was a kid, you had to have, in high school, doc martins, combat boots, because that's what the smiths wore. that's what was cool in alt- rock. doc martins has now ipo'd at 3 70p per share. there are some trends from the past that are questionable and you wonder why the kids are bringing them back. but just straight up, plain black doc martin combat boots, that's still ok, i am still down. anna: good to know you have no regrets. good to know those photos still look good. matt: it's just that dr. martens are not one of those regrets. i do want to bring you german
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gdp numbers. take a look at futures this morning. we are looking at equity index futures that are down across the board, as these retail reddit stocks bounceback. is it contained? i'm not sure, because the stocks are still up, in some cases 1000, 1500, 2000%, as is the case with gamestop. the broader equity indexes, the plane, vanilla baskets are down. right now, 1% for futures is the drop we are seeing across european equity index futures. u.s. futures are down as well, not quite as much. nasdaq futures almost as much but dow futures down. s&p futures down about 0.8%. just under an hour away from the start of cash trading across europe. we are still waiting for german
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gdp figures. remember, germany just a couple of days lowered its gdp forecast for 2021 from 4.4% to 3% flat. it will be interesting to see what we get and the fourth quarter 2020 figures as the lockdown starting to really bite , the second lockdown for us. anna: regrettably going to build up a picture of gdp across europe today, we expect french, italian, german gdp. bloomberg economics saying that things will get worse in the first quarter. even when we see these numbers, we have to keep that in mind. before they get better, is the assumption. we see some stresses and strains in the asian session coming through my particularly in china. this has to do with concerns around a cash squeeze in china, but also the kospi down by more than 3%. the dollar is actually doing pretty well. we have seen that as a bit of a
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trend this week as we have season these ruptures -- have seen these ruptures and retail investor space. we need to focus on the earnings season and ended on the underlying growth story, as you pointed out, matt. we are focused on that because we are waiting on those numbers to come through from germany. i've got ni germany eco open as well. global stocks are retreating. but retail darlings, including gamestop, rallied back in after hours trade. brokerage robinhood said it would lift trading restrictions. what does this mean for long-term investors? william de vijlder let's, bnp paribas. good -- let's talk to william de vijlder, chief economist at bnp
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paribas. perhaps it is still quite a niche story, but it is something that is getting onto people's global radar. does it have any macro implications for you or is this still too niche to get your eye? william: i am looking at it because as an economist, i am intrigued by, candace have brought around of kadesh can this have -- can this have broader implications? people have been using penny stocks for a long time in the literature has highlighted that. it kind of has a broader impact, if you think for instance would happen this week, that it was because of the short squeeze forcing hedge funds to deleverage. when they are deleveraging, it also means they are cutting back on long positions. that is one of the impacts that you have. normally, this is something that
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would be of a very temporary nature. there is a question of whether people will be looking at short positions, particularly in smaller stocks, as an additional element in their asset allocation. that will be a hurting behavior towards some of these -- her ding behavior on some of the stocks. that will have an impact on the short squeezes, etc., etc. you could imagine that it makes things a bit more difficult. one of the things that your colleagues said yesterday was that the russell index actually went up when the s&p went down. this was entirely related to the very specific circumstances. matt: one of the things that you pick up, william, when you start reading the reddit forum, wall street bets, that pushes these stocks, is that people are still
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very angry about the inequality that was exacerbated after the great financial crisis. and i wonder if you are concerned that that's going to get even worse now? you know, it's been commonplace to assume it will. but when you look at the data, does the alarm you? -- does it alarm you? william: first of all, i don't know, i think there is more like a juxtaposition. i would not say that the -- how to put it -- the feeling of frustration about what happened in the global financial crisis has been the factor that is pushing up these small-cap stocks. however, what is a clear issues that monetary policy in particular, unconventional monetary policy, is having an impact on distribution. when you look at it from what is
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happening to asset prices, if you broaden it and look at labor market, etc., you come to the conclusion that we have seen from the reports of the ecb, that all in all, that monetary policy is something that is positive for everybody. i do think we have an issue. it is that having -- is trying to recover and is benefiting from unconventional monetary policy is something that not everybody has that exposure. the less wealthy you have, the more reluctant -- wealth you have, the more reluctant you will be to take exposure to that. it reinforces the distributional impact from the economic shock in the first phase, with in the second phase distributional benefits from -- and the stock market recovery. anna: we will be back with you shortly.
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william de vijlder from bnp paribas stays with us a little bit longer on the program. coming up, the french economy shrinks 1.3% in the fourth quarter but is there worse to come? we have already had those numbers from france. we are waiting from the numbers as for the numbers from germany. -- we are waiting for the numbers in a germany. we will talk about the european growth story next. this is blue. .
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♪ >> we are going to have a recovery, but it is going to be an even recovery. >> of course, if we have direct impact on growth forecast and it will be very difficult to reach 6% abroad. >> you will get a roaring 1920's type of recovery and a boom period. >> the rebound in the second and third quarter will be quite strong because the expectation is that the vaccine will help lead the way to less restricted
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lockdowns. >> assuming we can get through this pandemic and vaccination strategies work and europe is sadly lacking on this. >> we should not be too quick to cut back on the expansionary fiscal policy. >> the level of underlying scarring in the economy is very difficult. >> we count on developing economies for dynamic growth. if they don't grow, bad for people there, bad for the world economy. >> we will get there. the question is not if, it is when? anna: guests on bloomberg television from davos and the year ahead event both taking place this week discussing the role of vaccines, as well as the need for fiscal support as economies try to get the reluctance --to get there lockdowns. william de vijlder from bnp paribas is still with us. we are waiting for the numbers from germany, we have had the
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numbers in france. we need to be thinking about what happens from here. how far out do you have to go before you see something that looks a bit like normal? and i guess by that, i mean a bit like 2019 in terms of the underlying economic performance? william: well, first, the goalposts are being moved. the way we look now at the economic outlook in the near term has evolved quite significantly from the way we looked at it at the end of december. this is due to the rising infections of the new variant, which is a big concern. the current restrictive measures need to be extended -- may need to be extended coming even into the second quarter -- extended, even into the second quarter. that also means that it can have an additional impact in terms of
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the scarring effects, the labor market situation becoming more dire, etc. that will mean it will also postpone converging back to the pre-pandemic gdp level. matt: will we need, william, more stimulus for europe? i mean, i know that european countries typically have safety net policies already in place, like the u.s. or much more than the u.s. has. but i wonder if we are going to need more stimulus now that these lockdowns have lasted longer than we expected and the vaccine rollout is also taking longer than you may have thought? william: well, what clearly happened is that governments will step up efforts to cushion the impact. i would not call this stimulus. it is more softening the blow, so to say. temporary employment schemes, credit protection, and the like.
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then, the key point is that we want to see the next generation be deployed at the second semester of next year. it is of crucial importance because there was all the c heers in july of last year about the agreement and now we are in january. that is going to be crucially important as well. i think we should also keep in mind that in the meantime, the export outlook is improving. when you look at the major european trading partners, they actually have manufacturing pmi's which are well above 50, so that kind of is a hopeful sign for european exports. german exports have improved and that is a very important element of pent up demand which you will see. that means that cushioning the fiscal policy, the current
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impact, and the way the next generation eu will allocate. i think the bar for having more stimulus discretionary is getting higher because of the fact that the deficits have already moved up so much. anna: william, thank you very much. thank you for joining us today. william de vijlder, chief economist at bnp paribas. ericsson says it is gaining market share after a fast-paced rollout of 5g. we will talk about expansion in north america, asia. we will talk about what shareholders think of the numbers as well. we will get more details on the company outlook with ericsson's ceo. that conversation coming up next. this is boom. . ♪
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♪ matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open." we are still 40 minutes away from the start of cash trading
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and looking at drops of 1% across european equity index futures this morning. u.s. equity index futures also down about 1%. nasdaq futures down a little bit more. the broader market continues to fall as we see these retail stocks continue to rally. of course, yesterday, when robinhood and other platforms made it impossible to buy, the stock fell. but now that some platforms are opening back up and allowing investors to freely decide, they are bidding the stock up this morning. ericsson says it is gaining market share. that's after a fast-paced of 5g build outs helped the swedish network equipment vendor reaches profitability target for 2020. the next challenge is to reach a 2022 target of 12 sent-14%. borje ekholm says the company is
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fully committed to its 2022 goals. he joins us now. thanks so much for your time this morning. . what makes you so confident? where do you see the strength that you can rely on? borje: thanks, matt, it's great to be with you. overall, we see a very strong demand in the market. it is driven by the early rollout of 5g. that has not been globally. it is really happening in north america, asia, australia, and the middle east. we see very good demand there. we are gaining market share across the world thanks to that portfolio coming out of our improved investments in r&d. we actually see that we have a very solid basis, a very solid outlook for the basis. we can say that we have reached
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2022 targets already in 2020 about two years early. we are at 12.5%. anna: that is interesting in the context of some comments we are getting through. good morning to you. from one of your shareholders. said he and capital saying that ericsson's targets are too low. you almost sound like you agree with him. borje: they would never say that it's too high, would they? we are focused on executing on the basis plan and the turnaround in our strategy. that involves continued investment in r&d for technology leadership and with that comes in increased market share that we see payoff in margins. we have not really spent a lot of time looking at the goals for 2022 more than saying that, you
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know, we remain committed to goals and we do not intend to revise them. matt: i wonder where you see the most strength in 5g? when our consumers going to really latch onto this and start demanding it and where will that be? borje: it's interesting, you already see consumers latching on, as you say, to 5g. you see it in china. there are more than 500 million -- 5 million 5g subscribers already. you see the demand in north america clearly driving users over to 5g and the user experience. it is driving the basis for the operators. and interestingly enough, you see that when you start to reach good coverage, you see increasing -- for the operators in 5g.
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we are increasingly seeing that around the world. don't forget, the big part for 5g was actually the enterprise, where with 5g, is the first time in enterprise can choose wireless connectivity as the primary access technology. we think that will actually lead to much faster digitalization of enterprises. anna: you mentioned china. i know you have been answering questions previously about tensions between china and the west and whether that's going to limit your ability to operate in china or limit your opportunities. i noticed this morning, your colleagues have been talking about how it's important that the entire telecoms ecosystem stays based on global standards. have you seen any signs of that fraying at all? borje: i think there is geopolitical tensions. there is a risk that you can fragment that global standard. today, you can travel with one
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device in the world and connect anywhere. it's just a few years ago where you needed multiple devices to travel the world. so, i do believe that this global standard has a lot of consumer benefits, but may be more importantly than for the few of us that traveled the world, it's actually that that global scale has driven down equipment prices and device prices to a level where almost all countries around the world can now afford to have connectivity. that's a huge wealth creator for the whole planet. anything that threatens that global standard, i think is a risk for the global economy. matt: thanks very much for joining us. borje ekholm, the ceo of ericsson, talking to us about profitability targets. they beat them for 2020. sounds like it should be a breeze for 2022.
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come back when you want to raise your target. we will be happy to host you when you're happy to come out with those numbers. qualtrics surges after its ipo in new york. we will talk to the ceo, christian klein. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european market open, have an hour until the start of cash equity trading, futures to the downside, a fairly risk off week, the cash system perhaps a little in china, but also in the fight between retail investors and hedge funds in the u.s., and to some extent, has spread here to europe. that's part of the dialogue. we're also keeping an eye on various logjams, one in the chip sector. we bring you some lines, u.s. officials are going to press
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taiwan and a chip company to resolve the auto chip crunch. many car companies waiting for the chip. the biden administration has a top meeting with the taiwan government and industry officials, during which they are expected to pressure tsmc and its peers to ramp-up supply. we'll keep across that story. let's get a bloomberg first word news update with laura wright. laura: thanks. the european union is set to tighten rules on the export of covid-19 vaccines. brussels will require companies to obtain prior authorization to ship the shots outside the block. if this fails to get it off track, an official tells bloomberg the council president has raised the prospect of effectively seizing control of vaccine production. a new covid vaccine was effective in the u.k. and south africa, but its protective power was lower in south africa, where a mutation of the virus is spreading. the result indicates another
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highly potent covid vaccine could be available to help increase vaccinations around the world. a variance of the coronavirus first identified in south africa is driving record numbers of infections and deaths across the continent. the world health organization is warning of pandemic fatigue and gathering risk treating a perfect storm that could overwhelm hospitals. the man who triggered the collapse of italy's government is ready to support a new coalition to avoid snap elections. the former premier isn't ruling out backing the prime minister again, but didn't specifically mention him in a meeting with the president. he told reporters his priority is the issues, not whose in the driving seat. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt, anna? matt: thanks very much, laura
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wright what the first word news. -- surges as the parent company confirms its 2021 forecast. the software company plans to recommend an enhanced dividend on the basis of higher earnings last year. we are joined by the ceo of sap, christian klein. thanks for your time this morning. so, what gives you the confidence to issue an enhanced dividend? and are you worried that leaves you open for further problems in 2021? christian: yeah, good morning. thanks for having me. first of all, the ipo yesterday was a massive success. [indiscernible] and then on top, we have also seen eps. with that, we're going to get
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together with the advisory board and we want to have our shareholders participating in the success of it. by the end of april, we are going to announce positive and talk about [indiscernible] anna: good morning. good to see the ipo to get your comments on that. in terms of the underlying business, when we look at the way the virus is being handled, ongoing lockdowns, extended lockdowns, parts of europe and other places, you reiterated your guidance today. what risk is there around your guidance? we saw last year that lockdowns did prevent problems for the company. christian: we start listening to our customers across the globe. they are having concerns. but the positive for sap is our solution is good for our customers.
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this is what s.a.p. does. and on top, we also announced our new offering, which only s.a.p. can handle this for our customers. that's why we are so confident for our outlook for 2021. matt: let me ask about the ipo. it went well to say the least. how long do you plan to keep your state in call tricks -- stake in call tricks? your remaining stake? christian: when you look at it, it's clearly a win-win situation for our customers, and s.a.p. we are going to infuse it further in our applications to accelerate growth in the sap customer base. and now with the ipo, we can also go after the markets outside our customer base.
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so, we have high continent, the solution is a well one, so we want to stay a majority shareholder, of course. anna: and clearly, qual tricks was something added to the business under previous management. you're reshaping things, so what plans do you have in terms of m&a? what should we be looking for? what balance of organic deal growth and dealmaking? christian: good question. we announced it this week and we got very positive feedback from customers as well as analysts because they will help us infuse further intelligence into the business proposals. as we also constantly said, we are focused on organic innovation. our pipeline is full of innovation in finance, in the whole front office, so we are very confident organic innovation is our focus. we are screening the market and
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if they are attacking it in place, which is a lot of benefit for our customers, we are open to that, as well. matt: how is the turn, as you move customers into the cloud? christian: the positive thing is first of all, we are winning market shares, especially in the peer space, where we just have again have seen 40% net customer sharing in q4. so, we are clearly winning. we brought over wins from 2020. and then going forward, of course we will see that acceleration of the customer move from our own private business as customers clearly see the benefit of doing that. but again, we will also see a very high share of net new customers also joining the s.a.p. family. anna: what about the parts of the business that have been hit
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by the lockdowns and by the pandemic? thinking business travel segments, for example. are there early signs of recovery in the areas of the company that were worst hit? christian: really good question. indeed. business travel is a hard-sell these days. but you see that it is the market-leading solution. we are by far the number one and despite under the circumstances, it's actually doing pretty well. and there is no doubt that once the lockdown is going to be releasing, it will come back strong and we expect that in the second half year in 2021. matt: christian, thanks so much for joining us. appreciate your time on what must be a very busy day for you, christian klein, ceo of s.a.p. talking to us about earnings expectations, dividends, and the ipo of qualtrics. coming up, robin hood raises
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over $1 billion in cash to make sure it can clear trade. the ceo defends the decision to clamp down on the trading of retail investor darlings. 's darlings the right word for gamestop? not sure. we're going to hear from vlad after he disallowed investors to buy stocks they can only sell them. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european open, minutes to go, 19 minutes to be precise. we're seeing nervousness around the surge in retail interest, certainly in the u.s. and the impact it's having at the hedge funds favorite short here in europe. we do see european stock features to the downside. concerning the asia session, around china, the korean market under pressure.
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there are a number of things coming together to overwrite optimism there might have been around vaccines and earnings. let's get a bloomberg business flash with laura wright. laura: thanks, anna. yesterday, bridgewater's ray dalio called the digital currency one hell of an invention, saying his firm is considering crypto too new funds. we worked is in talks to go public with a merger -- wework is in talks to go public with a merger. they are weighing interest with investors. it comes months after a traditional ipo failed. the wall street journal is reporting a deal could value wework at about $10 billion. that your bloomberg business flash. matt, anna? matt: thanks very much. laura wright in london with your business flash. robin hood is defending his decision to clamp down on
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trading and shares of retail investor darlings. the ceo told bloomberg no market participant, i.e. citadel or .72, forced the company to make the move. vlad: so, there's a lot of misinformation out there, in particular there's people saying that we were forced to do this by market makers we route to, or other market makers. i just want to come out and say that is categorically false. we weren't directed by a market maker or other market participant. this was a technical, an operational decision that we made because robin hood, as a brokerage, has financial requirements, including clearinghouse deposits we have to make to various clearinghouses. some of these requirements fluctuate based on volatility in
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the markets. and in this current, unprecedented environment, can be substantial. so, it's to protect the firm and protect our customers. we temporarily disabled buying securities. and we hope to reenable buying as soon as tomorrow morning. emily: so, that said, did any of your investors or any of your market makers ask you to halt these trades, even if that's not the reason why you did it? vlad: no. emily: so, talk to us then a little bit about why you would allow users to sell, but not buy, if you're about democratizing finance? vlad: well, users not allowing to sell is very, very painful, would be very painful to customers, getting out of a position, getting out of a position that you're holding, and not being able to do that is
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painful. and we stand with our customers. we want to give them the ability and the platform to invest in stocks, buying and sell. so, restricting buying, obviously, not as painful to customers as restricting all trading in a simple. emily: so, question from a viewer here, vlad, if hedge funds can short 140% of a stock but retails can't go long because of volatility and free markets, how does that make sense? vlad: well, i mean, look, it's nonnegotiable for us to comply with our financial requirements and our clearinghouse deposits. so, we have to do that. robin hood has always stood and will continue to stand with the individual investor and their ability to have access to buying
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and selling stocks. and i've got to say, now, i can kind of understand how clorox and lysol were feeling at the beginning of the dynamic, when there was so much demand for something. so, we're doing what we can. we hope to have them enabled tomorrow morning. and the team has been working incredibly hard, day in and day out, even before this, so that we're available to our customers and we operate and run a reliable service for them. emily: you're now facing scrutiny from both sides of the aisle. aoc tweeted earlier this is unacceptable. we need to know more about robin hood's decision to block retail
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investors from purchasing stock while hedge funds are clearly able to trade as they see fit. i'd support a hearing if necessary. ted cruz retweeted that and said fully agree. would you come to washington if necessary to testify about this? vlad: we are glad that both sides of the aisle are coming together here. obviously, under difficult circumstances that have been challenging. look, we're always open to having a conversation. we think this is a great opportunity to educate the public, as well, about how some of the mechanics around settlement in the financial markets work. i think there has been a lot of misinformation out there about why robinhood did this. and we, first and foremost, did it to protect the firm and our customers. anna: that was the robin hood ceo, vlad tenev, very clearly giving his side of the story and reflecting on some of the other suggestions that had been made as to why they did what they did. this morning, we learned robin hood has raised over one billion dollars from existing investors to ensure it has enough cash to clear trades.
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joining us now to discuss is dani burger. what is happening behind the scenes that posed so much of a risk? he was saying this was a risk management act. there were plenty of other theories yesterday in markets, but he would say this is a risk management thing. dani: all about counterparty risk here. look, i think to some extent, robin hood was weight over its head and not -- way over its head and not well-capitalized, part of why we are hearing of them drawing down capital lines. when you think about it, when you and i do a trade on robin hood, it actually takes two days for it to settle. while that is happening, clearinghouse says to robin hood or any other clearing firm that's doing these trades, you need to give us collateral while that happens. usually it's a pretty small amount, but considering the volume that was going through with some of these mean stocks, according to the investments, robin hood would have had to have pulled about $5 billion of
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collateral. and that's not even taking into account that they probably raced the amounts that they wanted robin hood to point -- robinhood to point up because stocks were risky and volatile. so in just a day, you need to cough up billions of dollars and you know that your customers are going to continue to put on these trades so you're going to owe even more money. that's will be get into the situation where robin hood is halting these trades. matt: it does sound like the kind of thing you should think of before you start this business because when you only allow customers to sell and you don't allow anyone to buy, it's pretty clear what happens to the price and how angry your customers become. what kind of permanent damage is robin hood going to see from this? dani: yeah, the reputational damage we've already seen looks pretty extreme. when you look at some of the
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bigger firms like td ameritrade or schwab, they said you can't trade on margins but you can still trade. that's what it looks like when you're better capitalized and can better manage risk. but there's a communication issue here. we had hours where robin hood just wasn't clear about what they were doing. there was a moment they stopped trade but hadn't made a public statement, and people were free areas. robin hood had a stash furious -- furious. robin hood had an issue like this in the past. they want an ipo this year. it is a crucial time for them, and they are losing customers left and right who are really angry, not to mention more regulation might come into the fore. i've been speaking to a lot, and they are resigned to the fact they think regulators are going to come in, do things like raise margin requirements for traders trading with derivatives. they see that there will be a
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permanent change to the industry in reaction to what's going on because in their mind, they think regulators are going to view us as a casino, as an arcade, when we are selling really sophisticated products that are well priced. but i think that the risk that regulators see happening right now, they're going to take action, and that could have a lasting impact. matt: all right, you definitely have to be ready for these issues, i think, before you open a business and put customers in this kind of situation. we'll see how this turns out for robin hood. certainly online, they're pretty unpopular on wall street, probably very part -- popular. coming up, your stocks to watch, including erickson. the equipment vendor says it is gaining market share after a fast pace of 5g buildup. -- buildout. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european market open, seven minutes until the start of equity session. if you are long these markets, you won't like the futures, down more than 1%. once again, volatility driven by the battle between retail and hedge fund investors in the state, and certainly has a european dimension to it. also concerns around some elements of the chinese economy, as well. let's get your stocks to watch. dani burger has those for us. we start with erickson. we had a conversation with the ceo earlier on. what do you see here? dani: i think this is that conversation added to an interesting debate about what's happening with their 2022 target of a 12-14% operating margin. we had one of the biggest holders of erickson say that it was too low, expectations weren't high enough. the ceo telling you both that he
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doesn't expect to change that target. he doesn't plan to revise those goals. should say they ended the quarter with a gain. another one to look out for today, it will buy back as much as 10% of its shares. this is thanks to the sale of its u.s. business, which is competing in the middle of this year. any share buyback does need approval from the ecb and at the moment, the ecb is encouraging banks to hold onto capital. h&m, a beat coming from the company. this is because they were able to cut costs vary significantly in the past quarter. they also said there was a good prospect they will return to dividend claimants -- payments around auto time. there was speculation they might cut dividends or cancel them, so h&m trying to wash those theories out of the market, saying we are going to come back with a dividend. you can expect it later. matt: all right. we call that fall, dani, autumn
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time, you and i, our people. dani burger there with our stocks to watch. coming up, it's the market open. futures are pointing lower on this friday morning. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european market open, a minute to go until the start of cash equities trading this friday morning. robin hood raises over $1 billion to cover trade. the ceo tells bloomberg a restricted buying ofin stocks to protect financial positions. the eu is set to put rules on the export of the coronavirus vaccine. it tells astrazeneca it must honor its contract. sap's qualtrec surges, but the parent company reports a slight in net profits.
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matt? matt: let's take a look at futures this morning, a few seconds to go until the market opens up, but they have been down and they are moving lower. so, we do see equity index futures off about 1.15%, 1.33% on the cap koran in paris right now -- cac koran in paris right now, but we do see drops indicated.. let's look at the global macro mover screen. and you can see a number of risk assets in the far left hand column, equity indexes. and that will populate as the indexes start to trade. the ftse opens up .4% down, but continues to fall. and the ibex opens down 1.25%. now we see the ftse down also more than 1%. you can see the boxes turning a little bit more red. i love this screen, global macro mover's gmm on the bloomberg. hillary and i were there for its
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birth, for the creation of the gmm screen, and it's so great to see how many people use it now. the squares, of course, are great when there's very little change, and they turn red when they start to fall. brighter red when they fall further, and then something insane, which we won't probably see very often, anna, is when you get a black box in one of the squares, it's more than three standard deviations away from a 30 day score. nonetheless, these are fairly substantial drops that we're seeing. anna: absolutely. that's when we get very excited, when we see moves from that side. let me get the spanish economy because this is interesting. we've been building up a picture for gdp. we had the french numbers, waiting for the driven numbers. the spanish economy grew 0.4% in the fourth quarter. the estimate had been for a contraction of 1.4%.
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that is growth, and not contraction, which in itself is really interesting, even if that was backward looking. perhaps it tells us something about various economies, in this case spain's ability to manage the lockdowns. now, the european equity markets opening to the downside as global stocks retreat amid concerns about volatile retail trader speculation in the united states. that is the market story, very much the market story. fascinating stuff as we continue to talk about it. in the earnings space, plenty of stuff there. numbers have come through slightly below estimates. in a statement, the ceo says the company has delivered on all targets in relation to its 2016-2020 strategy. let's speak to the ceo today. very good to speak to you. your business busy making flavors, food, drinks, fragrances, personal care,
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cosmetics, and the like. i noticed one analyst saying your performance is second-half loaded for 2021. give us your thoughts on how this year will shape up for you. >> firstly, we are very happy about this set of results. it was obviously, for everyone, a very unprecedented year. and we demonstrated with the business model we have, but also the hedges, very much diversified across clients, geographies, and products, demonstrating the resilience by growing a 4% of the like basis. so, with a good sort of -- i wouldn't say rebound, but a good improvement of the non-resilient businesses like fine fragrances or food-service in the later part of the year. going forward, there's a load, obviously, which is very much
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defined by how fast the vaccine is going to spread, how fast are the economies either going to be impacted or not impacted. the overall, we stick -- but overall, we stay and remain confident on the resilience. those products are consumed every day by consumers at home. and with the increased, let's say, cognizance around seller taste -- sanitation, we see good support. matt: your meat-free protein business has had incredible growth, from nothing to 100 million francs in five years. 2020 was an increase of 25%. and i also have to guess while we all stay-at-home, that's a business that can really continue to grow. is that how you see it? >> yeah, absolutely. it's part of those sort of side
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sort of businesses, which were not considered as being so traditional, which are basically on the side of the core f&f business. so, very happy to see the growth. we invested in what we called pace modulators, things which are all natural, which help make those applications actually taste good so that consumers are not convinced only about the sustainability benefits of those applications, but also like it. so, in the same way we built a business about activity, which are unique ingredients going into skincare, so those are, which is also reaching another 100 million for the last five years. so, businesses which help continue the growth story. anna: let me ask you how covid-19 is changing how you think about what customers want, or changing what customers want. we all know covid-19 can have an
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impact on sense of taste, sense of tell -- smell. we have to wear our masks a lot more, which means we can't smell as much. is this all impacting where you go from your business? >> we're not so much so worried on the consumers part. obviously, for the most, what i hear is the sense of smell comes back. it's disappeared because of covid. we are rbc very cautious about protecting our employees overall, but also our consumers and flavors, who of his league would not like to see their smell disappearing. but that has no impact on our business overall. they didn't change the consumer spending or way of consuming. matt: where are the most exciting growth opportunities after this pandemic? i mean, once you get to herd immunity, once you get to people
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no longer wearing masks, going back to work, hugging each other, what are you most excited for? >> well, i think when we are going to see, hopefully, the rebound of let's say the nonresilient part of the business, which accounts for 15%, the combination of fine fragrances, but also food-service in restaurants, events. i'm excited to see that coming back because it's been going down 15% overall for the year because of covid. but i'm also excited, as well, on those spaces that we are going into, which are all about unique ingredients, which make -- at the end of the day, people smile and enjoy products, whether for food or whether through, as i mentioned -- so, the way we see the next years to come, that's fully part
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of our 2025 strategy is to expand in adjacent spaces with the same sort of business model, which is all about unique ingredients -- for the most part, naturals -- who have strong benefit and the power of differentiation, whether for the smell or taste, but also, as i mentioned, around immunity. for example, we acquired a 500 million sales company all in naturals. and half of that is all about immune naturals ingredients, which we have seen growing very fast over the last year, in 2020. so, in those types of spaces, which are going to be interesting to see developing in the next couple of years. anna: perfumery, you can understand why that part of the business might be troubled at this point. have you been able to -- and thinking of travel outlets being
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somewhere where people often by this kind of product, and they've been closed. re: successfully managing to divert resources away bashar you successfully managing to divert resources away -- are you sick cecily managing to divert resources away from that -- successfully managing to divert resources away from that product? >> obviously, that has been heavily impacted. and alongside the lockdowns, the confinements, perfumery's being closed in cities. on the other hand, what we've seen, which explains the very sharp rebound we've had in the course of q4 is the authoritative distribution channels, door-to-door, what we call special retail stores, which sell perfumes in different channels. it has actually helped consumers to consume. that's how we ended up, for the full year, at "only a minor 6%
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of fine fragrance decline," which is actually a very good result if you consider the fine fragrance in the brick-and-mortar are in the minus 20-3%. -- -20-30%. it has helped save the year in fine fragrance. matt: thank you so much for joining us. they make fine fragrances and flavoring, as well as -- you just learned, meat free proteins. now, take a look at some of the movers in the market. we were talking about doc martens earlier. anna, do you rock docs? anna: it's been a while, but i have been known to. matt: yes! awesome. they're doing quite well after
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their ipo. they are up to 450p. other equity indexes, the broader indexes, are down pretty hard. so, not a bad start on what is actually a pretty bad day. and erickson is also a gainer today. we talked to the ceo earlier, as we did just now. coming up, robin hood raises over $100 billion to make sure it can clear trades. that's what it says that it needs to do with that money. the ceo defends the decision to clamp down on trading of the mean stocks. we hear from vlad tenev again next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it's nonnegotiable for us to comply with our financial requirements and our clearinghouse deposits. so, we have to do that. robin hood has always stood and will continue to stand with the individual investor. anna: that was the robin hood ceo, vlad tenev, speaking to bloomberg. the trading app has raised over
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$100 billion -- $1 billion from its own investors. this is the latest piece in the saga which is cap as busy. what was happening -- kept us busy. what was happening behind the scenes? dani: well, it really does come down to mitigating counterparty risk. to put it in more concrete terms, when a trade is done, it actually takes two days for the settlement to happen. and in that today period, whoever -- two day period, whoever has to put up money, has to put up collateral to manage risk before the trade is finally settled. but what happens when you get all this volume, all this volatility, the cost of doing so, that amount of money you need to set aside absolutely skyrockets. and a lot of these firms who collect that collateral have been damaging more money set aside, as well.
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it's estimated $5 billion was needed from robin hood to put up collateral for these trades. if you are robin hood, having to come up with that overnight is extreme the difficult, and you know your users want to continue to put on these trades. that's when we get these reactions of banning the trades and trying to get more capital. now, some of the more bigger firms like td ameritrade and schwab would have had to deal with it, as well. but they said we're raising margin. perhaps they're better capitalized and better able to deal with this tonight outright ban the trading, but still putting in risk management into the system. matt: after they put this collateral up and then get it back, do we know how robin hood makes its money? do we know a breakdown of the companies that pay robin hood the most money? dani: so look, robin hood gets -- this has been one of the controversial things, robin hood
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gets its money from citadel. that's why we know citadel -- that's just not the case. robin hood has other ways of making money besides the fact that it is free trading. but i will say one thing that will definitely come under scrutiny is this pato flow scheme. what essentially happens is citadel says we will in fact pay you if you route your flow orders through us. we bundle up the flow orders and we take care of that for you. i think that aspect will come under scrutiny but the fact citadel does that does not mean that hedge fund side came through and told them not to do this. there is a wall between the two, not to mention it will be highly illegal for this to happen. so, at the moment, those are purely rumors, so of course, how robin hood makes its money is important. but that's just one part of it. and it would be surprising
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because citadel securities also makes a lot of money from the big spread on these various traits, so they do trades, so they do --, trades, so they do benefit. matt: these are the important issues to address. dani, thanks very much for doing it. dani burger covering the robin hood story for us. taking a look at how markets are doing, drops across the board in terms of the stock 600. this is the broader european equity index, down 1.5%. s&p futures are down 1.25%, so it looks set to be very risk off friday, at least early on in the session. the dollar is strengthening. you don't really have people stocking up on 10 year yields right now. that's 1.04%. but give it a little time and they will do that. in terms of the breakdown, which industries are doing well and
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which are doing poorly, almost all of the 20 groups on the stock 600 groups are down. only telecoms, the defensive telecoms sector, is getting today. let's get a bloomberg business flash with laura wright in london. laura? laura: bloomberg sources tell us wework is ready to go -- in talks to go public with a merger. they are weighing interest with investors. it comes 16 months after a traditional ipo failed. the wall street journal is reporting a deal could value wework at about $10 billion. famous boots maker doc martens is surging on its debut, the largest domestic listing since september. the appeal is raising 1.3 billion pounds for shareholders -- ipo is raising 1.3 billion pounds for shareholders, or than 10 times what it paid for it into a 13. a clothing retailer eight
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expectations, cutting costs to offset the hit from the pandemic. it sold nearly a third but it managed to reduce expenses and we do wish he ate lower rent. -- and renegotiate lower rent. that's your bloomberg business flash. matt, anna? anna: thanks very much, laura wright in london. the eu is stripping vaccines outside the block. more on that battle between the eu and astrazeneca coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together.
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bounce forward, with comcast business.
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anna: welcome back, 22 minutes into the trading session, moved to the downside follows a weak session in asia. the eu is set to tighten rules about exporting the vaccine, and they get the permission to do so first. the move risks major escalation in the global battle for secure ask -- access to doses, and comes as anger grows over the slow rollout across the block. for more, maria tadeo joins us from brussels. good morning to you. how does this export regulation work with the ability to ban if they want to? maria: well, they like to call it an export limitation system, probably because it sounds nicer and it's more diplomatic. but it is an export ban of
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sorts. the way it works is if you are a company making the covid vaccine in europe, from now on you need a significant. you need to be a criteria before you export this to a third country. they say this is for humanitarian views, that this is justified is also fine, but we need to know whether or not you can service your contract in europe. that's the bottom line. and we need to get some context, and also the timing. it displays a lot of the measures the committee is taking. that's the astrazeneca follow-up and the follow-up. they say this is not a secret. they really do have doubts that some of the money decided to go into distribution for the vaccines, and the vaccines themselves, have gone missing. they're not here. where's the vaccines? that's the question they put to themselves. they get a hold of what's coming in and what's going out. what i would also say, because
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it's important, astrazeneca has denied that they do this. the fed would never dive or anything that was supposed to come to the european union -- divert anything that was supposed to come to the european union into the eu. matt: the concern is they are stoking vaccine nationalism. that's the accusation. how are people in brussels responding to that? maria: right, when you get overnight regulation, it changes things and tends to scare investment and scare companies. it does create issues for the global supply chains. the impression we have, and this is based on the reporting we've done, is the european commission has gone into the mentality where they don't care about this. they know there may be reputational damage, but the number one priority for them right now, and they are pressured by national government, is to get vaccines. they need to procure doses. if that means you arbitrate as
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nationalistic, if you are pushing for europe first and still expected to focus very much on the vaccines. by the way, they are repeating for the second time she wants the astrazeneca contract out and said if we get the doses we need, all of this can be easily solved, but we're not going to accept major cuts. anna: ok, thanks very much. we'll keep across the story. no doubt it will run into next week, as well, the battle between astrazeneca and the eu. coming up, retail darlings bounceback. stocks including gamestop rally after hours, brokerage robin hood says it will lift trading restrictions. we've been speaking with the ceo, telling us why the company had to bring in those restrictions on some elements of trading for retail investors in yesterday's session. that will continue to be talked about a lot. we're also going to have an interesting conversation with alberto gallo on that risk.
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and we'll talk about the level of regulation or regulatory interest around retail trading and where that will take us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. we are 30 minutes into the session. we saw a earlier that the stoxx 600 was down about 1.5%. we are still seeing a drop. not quite as bad, 1.1%. the other equity indexes are doing a little better. the majors are down 1%. industry groups -- telecoms are the only gainers right now.
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automakers and auto-parts makers falling the lease among the losers -- falling the least among the losers. here we are again. consumer products and services. there we go. recently, the group over at standard & poor's rejigged the index and gave us new acronyms. laura: a new covid vaccine was effective in big trials in the u.k. and south africa. its protective power is lower in south africa where a mutant is spreading. it could soon be available. the collapse of italy's
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government -- the former prime minister is not ruling out backing the president again. he told reporters his priority is the issues and not who was in the drivers seat. the u.k. expects about -- hong kong citizens to take advantage of the new visa rules. it was offered after china imposed a new national security law. the restrictions of the city breached the roles of the handover. -- the rules of the handover. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna: laura wright in london. global stocks are retreating as there is a concern over a cash squeeze in china.
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retail darlings including gamestop have rallied as robin hood says it will lift restrictions. some of the players in this remarkable story spoke to bloomberg. >> this is information out there. it was a technical and operational decision. >> it is musical chairs. there are too many. >> everyone is talking about rational or irrational exuberance. we are seeing cash on the sideline. >> the administration is taking a look. >> it is nonnegotiable for us to comply with our financial requirements and our clearinghouse deposits. >> luckily enough, we have an automated liquidation system.
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>> it has become a deeply personal phenomenon. i would equate it to folks voting with their dollars in order to make a statement towards big finance. >> hedge funds will learn that these retail investors are not something to look down your nose and chuckle at. >> now, you have a diversified force. anna: let's have a conversation about this and where we are. alberto gallo from algebris joins us. good to speak with you. i wonder if regulators will take a look at who is able to trade what and over what time frame and to what extent. will we end up with further regulation? alberto: good morning.
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certainly, we are not into this game. we are on the sideline and we are not involved in this equity trading. but, from an external perspective, for sure, there could be some work regulations will have to apply to these platforms. some of the things that have happened are probably not things that would be allowed for professional investors to do. essentially, there is probably going to be more scrutiny and it will be more difficult. but overall, what we see here is more examples of what happens when markets become more fragile . and market fertility is a key development over the last 10 years after we have lived through a decade of quantitative easing and low interest rates. these things create asset
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bubbles. you have credit risks and margin calls and platforms like robin hood that have credit risk versus their operators versus the customers that a been trading on margin. it is again one example that a decade of monetary stimulus has created market fragility and has not solved fragility. matt: you lead a cfa conference about the disconnect between the market and the real economy. what were your conclusions there as to how that is going to turn out? are these things going to come closer together? or will they continue to fall further apart? alberto: we believe we are at a key minute in history.
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this is the key question. are -- is the new biden administration going to be able to do enough spending to restore activity and enable the economy to get that exit velocity to help the fed normalize interest rates? it is a difficult task because we are coming from mandates where it was all about corporate tax cuts and low interest rates. these are one-size-fits-all measures. if you cut tax rates and reduced interest rates, you end up with corporate monopolies in a lot of area and secular stagnation. reversing this cycle is the key challenge for the biden administration. they are prepared but execution
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is the real issue. we are looking beyond the vaccines and beyond the crisis to try to understand if we can normalize growth and policy. this is a key moment in history. anna: do you see -- do you think the phenomena in we are seeing -- do you think the phenomena we are saying is the link? alberto: there is a huge disconnect between markets and the real economy. markets are telling you everything is fine. what we see inside the economy is a k shaped recovery. the poorest people in the population are still 20% below the level of employment that they had pre-covid.
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there is a lot of people that are worse off. they are still china make up for the losses they had pre-covid -- they are still trying to make up for the losses they had pre-covid. if the fed lowers interest rates , this wealth effect is not shared. the american situation can only do one-size-fits-all measures. now is the time for micro measures aimed at helping small businesses and growth. if these things happen in the second half of the year with the second tranche of stimulus, we could see inflation and growth go up and then we could see cyclical assets were covering. the real reflation story. if we don't, we will have a deeper liquidity trough, more as
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that bubbles, and we won't have an exit from secular stagnation. we will have to bear more negative interest rates. we are very focused on return off capital here and the key to understand whether we have a renaissance israeli whether the -- is really whether the reforms will happen. stimulus and interest rates won't work. matt: alberto, thank you for joining us. alberto gallo come ahead of macro strategies and portfolio manager at algebris and he just led a cfa conference yesterday on the spread between markets and the real economy. great to get his take on these issues today. i want to give you some headlines we are getting right now on hna group, a china
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conglomerate that had amassed stake in hilton hotels and deutsche bank as well as $75 billion in debt doing that. its core business is an airline business which has been hit hard during the pandemic. hna group, according to the global times, the chief editor there who announced that hna group may announce bankruptcy at any time. this is a story we are keeping an eye on although the come along -- although the conglomerate has gotten out of a lot of those big holdings including deutsche bank but it is still holding a ton of debt. anna: more breaking news -- a line from reuters that says
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astrazeneca is offering 8 million more doses relative to the size of the population. this is a subject we have been covering intensely and our colleague, maria tadeo will be back on that. and robin hood raises over $1 billion to make sure it can clear trait. up next, we will hear from the ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i don't know what it is going to be but i know we will do whatever it takes to get there. i have been so activated. this for me is the role of a lifetime, a semiretired superhero. it is a uniquely fun ride because the stakes are so high you cannot deny it. anna: what better than being a superhero them being a them a retired superhero? you can hear more about the oscar nominees plans to tackle climate change in this week's episode of bloomberg green on bloomberg tv and on quicktake. let's get a bloomberg business flash. laura: bitcoin is on track to snap a two-week slide amidst rising optimism from growing
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demands from institutional investors. his firm is considering crypto funds. doc martens is surging on the largest domestic lifting since december in london. raising one point 3 million pounds from shareholders including the owner. the value is up nearly 10 times. clothing retailer h&m beat expectations. profit fell nearly a third for three months at the firm managed to reduce expenses. h&m says there is a good chance for a dividend in the autumn. that is your bloomberg business flash. matt: laura wright in london with the business flash. a quick look at how markets are doing. 45 minutes into the session and
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we are looking at losses on indexes across europe although they are dissipating. the 1% or 1.5% losses that we saw earlier, a little less than that. stoxx 600 down almost four points. robinhood says it has raised over $1 billion from investors to ensure that it has enough cash to clear trait. the retail investor app is defending its decision to clamp down on trading in shares of so-called meme stocks. vlad tenev says no one forced the company to make the move. vlad: there is a lot of misinformation out there in particular, there are people saying we were forced to do this by market makers that we route to or other market participants. that is categorically false.
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we were not directed by a market maker or any other market participants. this was a technical and operational decision that we made because robinhood as a brokerage has financial requirements including clearinghouse deposits that we have to make to various clearinghouses. some of these requirements are based on volatility in the markets and in this current, unprecedented environment, can be substantial. to protect the firm and our customers, we temporarily disabled buying in the securities and we hope to reenable that as soon as tomorrow morning. >> did any of your investors or other market makers ask you to halt these traits even if that is not the reason that you did it? vlad: no.
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>> why would you allow users to sell and not by if you are about democratizing finance? vlad: user is not allowing to sell is very painful or would be very painful for customers getting out of a position that you are holding. and not being able to do that is painful. we want to give our customers the ability and the platform to invest in stocks, buying and selling. restricting buying obviously is not as painful the customers as restrict in all trading. >> a question from a view work -- if hedge funds can short 140% of a stock but retail cannot go
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along because of volatility, how does that make sense? vlad: it is nonnegotiable for us to comply with our financial requirements and our clearinghouse deposits. we have to do that. robinhood has always stood and will continue to stand with the individual investor and their ability to have access to buying and selling stocks. and i have to say now, i can kind of understand how clorox and lysol were at the beginning of the pandemic when there is so much demand. we are doing what we can. we hope to have them enabled tomorrow morning. the team has been working incredibly hard even before this so that we are available to our customers and that we operate and run a reliable service for them. >> your now facing scrutiny from
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both sides of the aisle. aoc tweeted earlier that this is unacceptable and we need to know more information about robinhood. as a member of the financial services committee, i support a hearing if necessary. and ted cruz read tweeted that and said that he fully agreed. would you come to washington? vlad: we are glad that both sides of the aisle are coming together here. under difficult circumstances, that have been challenging. we are always open to having a conversation. we think this is a great opportunity to educate the public as well about how some of the mechanics around settlement in the financial markets work. i think there has been a lot of misinformation out there about
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why robinhood exists. we did it to protect the firm and our customers. matt: in any case, we are going to get anna's mic back on or turned on and she will rejoin the program. when we come back, we are also going to talk to mliv's richard jones who joins us to discuss what is going on in this market and when earnings will matter to stocks again. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european market open. we are almost an hour into the session with equity indexes down 1% across the board. joining us is richard jones. given the erratic movements in a few brick and mortar retailers recently, i guess the mliv question of the day is when will earnings matter to stocks? richard: i think the best answer
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to this question was provided by my mliv colleague in asia. in the short term come up markets are going to continue to be directed by monetary and fiscal policies this year much as they were last year. the liquidity we have in the system is more important now than anything else including earnings. with the pandemic dragging on, you're going to have monetary and fiscal policies still being very aggressive and that will be the big driver of price action this year. it will probably come back into vogue once we get over the pandemic and the economy gets back on its feet sufficiently for central banks to be able to move away from the extreme accommodative easing. for the near term, i think it will run the year. anna: richard, thank you very much. a quick word on german unemployment.
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german unemployment fell by 41,000 in january. the estimate was for an increase. that tells you a lot about how unpredictable the jobs market is at this point. "surveillance" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: robinhood raises over $1es. its chief executive says it is to protect its financial position. the eu on the move with coronavirus vaccines, demanding astrazeneca honor its contact. and lockdowns as a new chief executive because cost during her first year, leaving the retailer. we will speak to the company's cfo. good morning, everyone. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance."


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