tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 7, 2021 1:30pm-2:01pm EDT
were far short of expectations, but jobs will return when financial assistance from the american rescue plan starts getting sent out. >> later this month we will be disturbing the first state and local assistance from the american rescue plan. we will not get all 1.6 million jobs back in one month but you will start seeing those jobs coming back. mark: the president rejected the idea enhanced unemployment insurance benefits are keeping americans from filing millions of vacancies. a senior health official at the centers for disease control who warned americans about the pandemic is set to resign. she told her colleagues she will step down from her position. the official became a target of former president trump after she contradicted the white house in the early days of the pandemic,
warning covid-19 could kill many americans. new jersey governor phil murphy is considering cash incentives to lure people to get vaccinated for covid-19. new jersey is running a so-called shot and beer program that offers free beverages at new jersey breweries for people who can show proof of vaccination during the month of may. the governor told fox news, "all things are on the table concerning a potential cash lure." police in the mall dives say an explosion that wanted the former president and for others, including a british national was an act of terrorism. he was wounded in the blast outside of his home thursday night. authorities say they are attempting to identify four possible sub specs. australian police say they are ready to help out. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ amanda: welcome to "bloomberg markets." matt: we welcome our bloomberg audiences each day at this hour. here are the stories we are following. a jobs miss. payroll comes in way short of estimates. we will bring you analysis. plus, labor shortages and the recovery in the hospitality industry with ivy mix, an advisory board member at the independent restaurant board coalition and a famous drinks professional.
we will have the latest on the market reaction to this data as tech leads equities. the bad news is good for markets. amanda: i think you nailed it. there was some early reaction. we were watching treasury yields. if it is responding to the data at all, this is supportive of a fed saying -- staying in easy territory. we are seeing energy still leading the market higher for the broad s&p 500. tech right behind. the weakest out there. there is the 10-year at 157. we are seeing leadership from the nasdaq today. in toronto it is not so much leadership from energy, it is health care moving things along. it is the data that's a reminder
of how choppy we may see the advances in job gains, and whether there will be market tightness. all of that is in the mix. tom porcelli is with us now for rbc capital markets. i want to start with your headline reaction to the data. it was such a miss that i'm curious to know what you made of it. tom: it was a wild miss. such a mess that our immediate reaction was you have to fade the number. we have to bear in mind there is an assortment of labor data we get over the course of any given month. this was the one outlier. jobless claims continuing to perform incredibly well between the survey periods. if you look at consumer confidence toward the labor
backdrop, another indicator that improved dramatically over the month. when we saw this 266,000 our immediate reaction was it does not smell write. -- right. matt: it gives a little bit of weight to the biden administration's narrative that the economy needs a lot of help fiscally. it gets behind the fed's narrative that there is no trend in place yet and it's not time to even talk about tapering, right? tom: the fed will use this as an i told you so moment. i don't have any doubt about that. the notion of wait and see. the fed is always supposed to wait and see, never respond to forecasts. quite frankly i do think that was ever an idea called into question. what i would say is when i think
about where we are of an economic perspective, the economy is starting to open in earnest now. when i think about the jobs report in the context of that idea, how much sense does it make you would print 500,000 less jobs in april over march when all we did between march and april is gather a lot of economic momentum? this number does not make a lot of sense. i think it is a faulty seasonal adjustment process at play. that may make some people's eyes glaze over. the reality of economic data is imperfect to say the least. i think there are countless ways of driving home the number should have been higher. the number is what it is. your point is really well taken. i would say that's what's going to happen. the fed and the biden administration for say, look,
this is the reason we need to keep our foot on the gas pedal. amanda: i think that's really important observation and may what be what is showing up in the market. this is a bit of an anomaly. we will wait for the hold on data. we are seeing evidence, or at least hearing anecdotal evidence of an unwillingness to return to work. is that overdone? workers who cannot -- employers who cannot fill jobs. tom: i don't think that really showed up in this report. our view is firm on that. this particular monthly payroll report was plagued by seasonal adjustment processes. do i think the idea can show up? i do. again, it's funny. i was speaking with a friend who has a friend who owns a restaurant. he was saying my friend who owns
this restaurant said they are having a hard time finding workers. i bet in both of your circles you probably have people that could say something similar. that is great. that one off anecdotal information is interesting. here is some hard data. just look at the fed's beige book. look at the isn reports. look at the small business survey. they are all saying the same thing. we are having a hard time finding workers. the report just came out yesterday. it said exactly that. they are having a hard time finding and retaining workers. i think that's a problem. the degree to which that is a problem is a completely open question. i don't think anyone should dispute the idea it is hard to find workers right now, because
it is littered in all of the economic reports i just mentioned. matt: i interviewed constantly hotel owners, restaurant owners, theme park operators who say that people who used to work for them are doing really well on extended unemployment benefits compared to how they would do. that maybe says something about the pay scheme. they can't get them to come back. you figure that is probably going to change by the end of the summer as the on employment gains run out. tom: those will expire in september. we will see what happens. i have a hard time forecasting was going to happen from a payroll perspective in the next month. i will not venture a guess for september. the reality is this. we came up a 6.5% q1 growth pace in the united states. that's an unprecedented outcome.
here we are in q2, midway through, and we are on pace to grow at a 10% clip. a 10% clip. you can't generate that activity without a lot of spending taking place. matt: i want to ask about inflation. i talked to the ceo of siemens. he said higher input costs are giving them the space to raise prices on their final products to customers. i talked to the ceos of bmw, daimler, volkswagen. they all say the same thing. all these end product makers have incredible price power. those are the kind of prices they say ok now you get a discount. that is inflation that sticks. what is your view? tom: if we are running out of time, i will say this. i can give you all the economic
data that drives this point home, whether it is ppi, whether i'm looking at the isn reports, the beige book. forget about that data. if you want to know if there is inflation or not, here is what you need to do. just look around you. anywhere you are looking. a fed official want said the best way to forecast inflation is look out your window. i think that is probably/sage advice. you can see there are inflationary pressures building. we can talk but how enduring it will be. that's the right question to ask. right now inflationary pressures are building and building fairly significantly. matt: how enduring and to what extent. tom, appreciate your insight. tom porcelli, rbc capital markets chief u.s. economist. coming up, a look at the labor
418.5 percent compared to february of 2020. -- or 18.5% compared to february. it has to be the hardest hit sector out there. amanda: 100%. when we write the forensic review on government support, some of it will look at keeping businesses afloat that then close their doors when the government support is removed. a number of zombie restaurants are out there now. when government support goes away, they will too. the jobs will not come back to them. rehiring in this space is a lot harder than firing. i think that will create a little stickiness for the rehiring point. matt: let's talk to ivy mix, a member of the independent restaurant coalition advisory board. also the core owner -- co-owner of leyenda in brooklyn. an incredible entrepreneur.
you do so much. let me ask you about your peers. how many are surviving on government support? for a lot it is not enough. i feel like the lay of the land in the restaurant scene will change dramatically from 2019. ivy: it cannot be stressed enough how much has changed in my industry. so many places have closed. one in six restaurants have closed permanently. that is a huge impact just on my industry but also on the whole country. it has been very tricky, very hard. the opposite of covid is hospitality. eating and drinking and hugging and joining as people. really up until the other day when the restaurant relief fund, there was not a lot of help.
ppp was not necessarily conducive to restaurants. only $34 billion of the ppp went to bars and restaurants, despite 280 million -- $280 billion of lost revenue. amanda: what are you hearing about the restart? america is kind of the envy of the world when it comes to the pace of vaccinations. you are not quite there yet. it is not life back to normal. where are restaurants in the progression back to something that looks normal? ivy: i wrote a mailer for leyenda. is says, is that the light at the end of the tunnel? you can feel the light at the end of the tunnel. i'm in new york. there is lots of vaccinations happening, and that's amazing, but the real kicker is what we are looking for. with the revitalization fund you
have more hope of money coming in to help make up for the lost time and lost wages. it is great to see the light but that does not make up for the last 14, 15 months that have been brutal. completely brutal. matt: are you able to get your employees back into the stores and restaurants? not just leyenda, but you co-owner fiasco, of wine and spirits store. you cofounded or founded speed rack, a woman's only bartending contest. you have been nominated the -- one of the best american bartenders. you have a lot going on. are you able to bring your employees back? ivy: it has been extremely hard for a long time. people did not feel safe. unemployment gave people the opportunity not to have to go back to the workplace. now people are getting vaccinated, thank god, can
coming back to work but it's not easy. there is a big job shortage. a lot of the reason being bars and restaurants don't necessarily have the money to employ people to come back. it is not just that people are not coming back to work. we don't have the money to actually pay people to come back. it's important for us to get more funds, like the funds we got the other day, which was great. $28.6 billion, fantastic. but we had so many people apply. 186,000 people applied the other day. maybe 100,000 are going to get it. what is wonderful about the program is we fought to make sure funds were allotted for underrepresented groups, minorities, socioeconomically disadvantaged people. more than half of our applicants
are from that group. we really need more money to put back into those funds so we can keep opening back up bars and restaurants and keep employing people. they go hand-in-hand. amanda: they do indeed. great to have your view on this. appreciate it. ivy mix, co-owner of leyenda. thank you so much for that. , we check on how markets are reacting to the economic data. stay with us. ♪
today, doing what matt miller said would happen. folks at the fed would use the data as an excuse to say we are doing exactly the right thing and not doing anything. katie drive felt is with us. it felt as though the market thought about reacting to the data and then hit pause. i would hesitate to say we are seeing anything in the market. katie: you are totally right. if you look at the things that moved dramatically after we saw the data come out, you are seeing the moves pair. if we look at the s&p 500, the nasdaq 100, 10-year treasury yields. i want to focus attention on the five-year treasury yield. there is some action. even if you see the 10-year treasury rewind, those moves are about back to flat. five-year are still lower, about two basis points.
that tells you traders are starting to pare back some of the fed hikes they had priced in. markets looked at the data, thought about what it meant for the fed and drove home the message that rates are going to be lower for longer. the fed will stay accommodative. some of that hopeful pricing, the hikes it had been priced in, you are seeing those come out of the market as the other move start to fade. matt: interesting it comes on the heels of yesterday's fed warning that these valuations are little bit high. that did not seem to bum out the market at all. the perspective from investors is it doesn't matter if the fed says evaluations are high. we have this essentially greenspan push forever, we are fine with buying the market up. katie: it's funny that
everything the fed mentioned in the report yesterday pretty much rallied after the data. even bitcoin was having a tough go of it. it is rallying today. we did hear about this from powell last week. he said parts of markets have gotten a little frothy. at least part of that is thanks to monetary policy. if you look at the data and you take with the fed has been telling you for months, it's a green light for the speculative assets that support will stick around. matt: bitcoin over $58,000 right now. ether over $3500. for amanda lange, i matt miller. have a fantastic weekend. ♪
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u.s. showcase their diverging views on how to address regional and global crises at a china-hosted united nations security council event today. here secretary of state antony blinken. >> when member states, particularly permit members of the security council flout these rules and block attempts to hold accountable those who violate international law, it sends the message others can break those rules with impunity. all of us must accept the scrutiny, however difficult, that comes with the commitments we freely made. mark: the secretary of state and china's foreign minister were joined by several other foreign ministers. the british prime minister boris johnson's conservative party is running big in the parliamentary district north of london. it comes on the heels of the prime minister's brexit triumph and successful cover 19 vaccine
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