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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  May 25, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai, i am manus cranny and it is "daybreak: europe." global stocks push higher as fed officials stick to the script on inflation, they say price pressures will be transitory. eu link -- leaders thousand on belarus after the incident with
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the ryanair jet and labels at an attack on democracy. elon musk pushed to boost bitcoin's green credentials after another rally in the cryptocurrency, but it trims gains this morning. a warm welcome to the show. i am driving and changing the gears, it is dangerous when anne-marie takes a day off but i will give it a go. bitcoin, elon musk comes out -- some people talk about the gentrification of some geographies -- elon musk tries to greenify bitcoin. north american bitcoin miners planning reduce usage. ray dalio was saying he prefers crypto rather than bonds. you have this new renaissance in
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bitcoin. i gave you this thought from john norman yesterday -- how big is this bubble or is it a bubble or what is the contagion risk from this? this is not the 1980's or the dot-coms of the 1990's, there is the enthusiasm of the elon musk quote on twitter. it is not the subprime crisis of the 2000's. i spoke to the head of fx at hsbc and he says there's no correlation between the polity of bitcoin and cross currencies, just putting that out there. talk about the fed, reaffirming the narrative that it is transitory not permanent, get over yourself. they are discussing the ongoing debate, an event on monday evening. an important part of the inflation done namic is longer-term inflation expectations and those has been extremely well anchored,
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implying that if we saw some development pushing inflation up, i would not expect that to get embedded into ongoing inflation. that takes you back to the clear delineation and debate between an un-mooring and an anchoring of inflation. jp morgan, don will -- john norman might be leaving but they have other analysts and they say get ready for a better looking stock market. s&p 500 up, bitcoin with a pause and oil rallies. jp morgan saying you will have a robust second half. we will bring you the markets in a moment, you get to see more of me. let's talk to my guest host this morning. thank you for being with me. where do you stand in this debate? i'm looking at the breakevens,
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they world overcome of the biggest drop since september last year. do you get a sense that we are extremely well anchored or is there any risk of an un-mooring of inflation expectations? good morning. >> good morning and happy to be here. we agree for the most part with the central bank commentators. it had similar commentary from the ecb, talking about the transitory nature of the inflation pressure and we would agree that eventually -- yes we have a very strong demand that will trigger a supply response in the medium term so you should have this even out and we expect the u.s. to settle out about 2.5% by the second half of 2022. that is not far away from inflation expectations over the medium-term. what we are watching, to see if
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we are wrong on this, is to measures. -- two measures. how broad-based are these inflation pressures? we estimate our economics team has done -- economic team has done the numbers, and the vaccine accounts for some overshoot in the u.s. we also will be looking for signs of more persistent inflation in the wage market. if there is to be persistent inflation, it will come from the labor market, that's where we would be more concerned. manus: let's see what the jobs report brings at the end of next week because we have a little bit more tone and intonation. you expect inflation numbers to settle back. if that is the basis, some people have come on the show and said these big drawdowns in mega
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tech, if you think inflation expectations and inflation will anchor and steady, are you a buyer of big drawdowns in big tech? supriya: we have been quite positive on tech. we have positioned more toward value for much of this year, and that is where we are. we remain positively or in tainted toward value. i think where we will be shifting our portfolio a little bit is in line with our expectations and economic and earnings momentum are about to peak for the moment. that makes us closer toward increasing the quality of our equity exposure and adding a bit more yield. that's where we would be headed rather than adding significantly to big tech. there is value emerging in big tech, mainly because earnings have held up really well and for
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the most part, these companies have not been rewarded in the recent quarters. over the medium-term, we steer clear of areas that phase headwinds from rising yield because we don't think the yield story is over. we think there is a little bit of consolidation there as inflation expectations have perhaps risen too far too quickly. manus: you say you would add yield to slightly rebalance the portfolio. how or what strategy would you deploy for adding a bit of yield? supriya: within our equity, looking at the asset portfolio, the equity exposure, we added to dividend yield. we also added real estate exposure outside of that. that's where we increase the
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yield component of our portfolios. we also have some exposure to emerging markets currency debt. we have added that in a number of places, but yes, certainly with the equity and we think the dividend yield has not been rewarded so we have added. manus: the other part at the start of the show was bitcoin managed 13%. the daily or by daily machinations of bitcoin we can argue about but i want to get your sense of how much of a threat it is to the equilibrium. we look at john norman, he was saying as long -- large and bubblelike as crypto has become, it is not like the 1980's or 1990's or the subprime of the 2000s in terms of household and corporate.
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when you look at crypto, it is taking up so much airtime and emotional space for everybody in the market. are you concerned about contagion risk from bitcoin and crypto or how do you look at this volatility? supriya: we certainly would be tuned in to spillovers from outflows from bitcoin, also due to outflows from the retail exposure that has been building up over the past few months. yes, there could be contagion impact. still, the overwhelming narrative is the flows into narrowed -- flows have continued .
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through all of this, there has been steady buying of the equity markets, m&a has picked up, lots of cash on the sidelines. you have these aspects budding against each other -- butting against each other. the wall of cash is out there and it has been deployed. manus: one of the arguments you say will be wage pressure, wage inflation. we will put that to the back of our minds for a moment. do you differentiate globally or sect orally in terms of the ability to raise prices. it is certainly something in your mindset, do you allocate now through 2021, let's say on the ability to raise prices? we've seen it from nestle and a variety of u.s., more so s&p and hoteliers.
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how do you rally around price? we seem to have one of those moments, we will get back on zoom in a moment. my guest host this morning. annabelle droulers is with me, my trustee and reliant, confident colleague with the first word news. annabelle: thank you. the u.s. has issued a new travel warning, saying americans should avoid going to japan, adding to the doubts about tokyo's plan to host the olympics in less than two months. the action comes despite a lower inflection -- infection rate in japan than the the u.s.. if the u.k. finance sector were a country, it would have a bigger carbon footprint than canada, according to a recent report from greenpeace and the world wildlife fund. the impact mostly comes from
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investment portfolios. according to a nonprofit, emissions from those activities is set hundred times higher on average than the direct impact. green case says finance is the uk's dirty little secret. it is the biggest takeover in european real estate. a german property from has agreed to acquire a rival for about 19 billion euros. the price represents a premium us of 18% over the targets closing price on friday when shares -- traders. brings together the two largest residential landlords with control of more than 500,000 apartments. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: thank you very much. coming up, eu leaders have vowed rod sanctions against belarus --
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broad sanctions against belarus. we are live in brussels with the latest on the story. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> what has happened here -- >> hijacking the plane and paving like that -- behaving like that. >> you have to understand this will have bigger consequences. >> there is already a package of
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sanctions and i think a fourth package should be accelerated. >> particular also against companies, economic sanctions, and entities. >> we need clear actions to change the pattern of behavior of this very dangerous regime. manus: just some of the eu leaders reacting to belarus's forced landing of orion airplane. they spoke ahead -- a ryan airplane. they are imposing an effective flight blockade on the country. belarus and officials are said to be added to the existing blacklist and targets are being drawn up. let's get to our reporter, maria tadeo. what is the package going to include and how penal are they?
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maria: we talked about this being a full package, the european union wanted to go beyond individuals and that's what they have agreed. when you look at the measures, they now target financial sectors and some of the state owned companies, where a lot of the money would be in belarus. they have denied access to belarus and planes and would block the airspace in and out of the country. overall, given the measures they could have taken, you could argue this is the top end in terms of severity of measures. some of the detail is still pending but the direction seems to want to punish the belarusian government. also relevant, the fact that the measures were taking quickly. some officials were telling us the measures were agreed in a short time and europe went with that decision to send a clear signal that when it comes to an
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external threat, they are united. a lot of it was an optics, but on the details, they wanted to send a message going after the money and shutting down the airspace. manus: the european leaders also discussed russia and how our diplomatic relations are there. maria: the thinking is that belarus would not commit such an attack on the european airspace if they were not sure russia would act lukashenko in the aftermath. the russians are saying this is an exaggerated reaction and they believe the explanation by the belarusian government. the language coming out of the european government yesterday was very tough. they say that they have been trying to stabilize -- destabilize european countries.
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she also mentioned assassinations. normal relationships are not going to be back anytime soon and diplomatically, russia has become a country difficult to deal with, but she also acknowledged the geographical reality. you simply cannot ignore russia. manus: no, very strong words as you say from ursula von der leyen. that was the very latest on the belarus situation with europe. my guest is still with us as my guest host. geopolitics is something we deal with on a daily basis, and we will see what happens with regard to belarus and the eu. i want to get back to the market aspect, a growth rate in europe of 4% for 2021. goldman sachs say they could be
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one of the biggest candidates for global growth. how much european risk are you taking and in what way? supriya: we have taken a bit of risk in europe this year and parts of what i described earlier as being tilted toward areas of value in the market. european markets, the valuation argument is not as clear-cut as before, that we are exposed to areas of earnings growth and where it had been underestimated, catching up and the fact is that in europe, you have increasing vaccination program and reopening and you have upside surprises when it comes to activity data. we saw a clear height in the recent pmi driven by services so we have a handle on the services as the yuan -- u.s. and u.k.. that is the driving optimism when it comes to the domestic optimistic picture.
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europe is expert -- export early ended -- export oriented. we are looking at the broad index as well as areas of travel and leisure. we have more targeted aches -- targeted exposure and broad-based. we like europe. manus: i am curious, we are showing the government bond yields, and dramatic repricing in bond yields in germany, france, spain, portugal. no more so than perhaps in the bund market not yet at zero but nearly there. we've seen a structural shift in the yield story in europe. is it too soon for you to take a short position? jp morgan saying he is increasingly uneasy holding longer dated bonds in europe.
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supriya: there is a bit of a catch up as the economic picture has caught up. there -- bond yields have moved higher. the spread in some of the peripheral countries, you have seat spreads widen. that is a little bit of a different story, related to a little bit of speculation of a view by the hawks of the ecb gaining the upper hand and perhaps scaling back the pandemic on buying program. that would have the most impact on spreads. that is playing out there. i think it is getting to the point where it probably has gone to file and there is not a clear-cut argument from the ecb for investors yet even if the
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economy is picking up. we would rather hold equities in that is where we stand. we are not taking a strong position when it comes to bonds. manus: thank you so much. equity over bonds, relative to the u.s.. thank you so much for being with me. coming up on bloomberg, plenty of bitcoin to go around so says lord elon. we will give you the details. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: it is "daybreak: europe" solo today, annmarie hordern is out. elon musk stoked a fresh bitcoin rally, it has since been debated somewhat, the tesla ceo showing support for m bitcoininers to be more -- bitcoin miners to be more environment italy friendly. -- environmentally friendly. will it make a difference? >> that's an interesting question, when it comes to the
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price of bitcoin and reaction to it, the rally wasn't very long. we have seen today the price has drifted lower once again, trading just above 38,000. that's after a pretty good rally yesterday. if we are looking for a continuation or a fresh rally from here, we are seeing a little weakness today. one of the issues is the talk of greenification is not going to happen overnight. we are seeing this with any industry, not just crypto mining. it could take years. we talk about the crypto climate accord, there talking about d carbonizing the industry by 2030. prices continue to swing as it has a couple of weeks.
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longer-term, will we see improvements to the environment? we will have to see if they follow through with promises. manus: eric, thank you for being with us this morning. wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. over the next 10 years, comcast is committing $1 billion to reach 50 million low-income americans with the tools and resources they need to be ready for anything. i hope you're ready. 'cause we are. ♪ ♪ look, if your wireless carrier was a guy you'd leave him tomorrow. not very flexible. not great at saving. you deserve better... xfinity mobile. now they have unlimited for just $30 a month... $30.
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manus: good from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai, i am manus cranny and this is "daybreak: europe." global stocks put higher as the fed sticks to the inflation script, saying price pressures will be transitory, not laughing. eu leaders promise sanctions on belarus after the diversion of a
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ryanair jet, saying it is an attack on democracy. and elon musk pushed to boost bitcoin's green credentials and spurred another rally. good morning, good morning, good morning. if i say it three times -- bostick, bullard and brainard, my trifecta. we have steady-state inflation but madame reynard tells us we are extremely well anchored in terms of inflation. and perhaps that is borne out by the breakeven, the 10 year breakevens rolling over. perhaps what you have to ask yourself is the important part of inflation and a mix is longer-term inflation expectation, they are extremely well anchored. many people in the market are talking about the five-year swaps market that has rolled over. the breakevens have rolled over
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but so have the five-year swaps are tilting over. are we passed at the peak of our inflation angst? it implies some development in pushing up inflation. i would not expect that to get embedded. that's the essence of it, are the expectations becoming embedded which would lead to an an morning -- unmooring. jp morgan said it ready for about a 10% correction, john norman did, but jp morgan saying we are in the sweet spot overall. you will have a robust second half. they have a bullish view on telecoms, go to my winton -- linkedin, shameless plug. let me show you, crude up 8.6%.
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this as the covid numbers in the united states of america come down to the lowest level since march of last year, less than 30,000 a week last week. still, a huge global issue but becoming less of a press and issue in -- prescient issue in the united states. let's talk about another set of negotiations ongoing and rhetoric tied to it, the european union imposing an effective flight blockade against belarus. that is after the forced landing of a ryanair flight and arrest of a journalist. the international air association says they have strongly condemned the plane diversion, and the director general spoke to bloomberg tv.
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>> in the current environment, it is not as important as you might think, and that is because of a disruption caused by the coronavirus. a lot of flights that would have traditionally gone through that part of airspace, many of those flights are not operating at the moment because of the significant scale back in operations, but in a normal operation, for europe into asia and russia, it is important. >> if anyone is having to diverge, they have to go a different route, isn't that the companies and consumers who have to pay for it rather than belarus? >> exactly. the airlines have to avoid the airspace, which could be complicated because there are other areas that are closed or recommended not to travel through.
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the important thing is we have to strongly condemn the actions of the government of belarus. what they did on sunday, intercepting a commercial, civil aircraft, clearly putting the passengers and crew at risk, and forcing them to divert his unacceptable behavior by any government, and we have to call this out and ensure that the facts behind this are understood and take steps to ensure it does not happen again. >> what is your message to your members? >> it is important that each individual airline assess the risk associated with their operations through this airspace. it is different for each airline and they will be guided initially by the security information they get from their governments. >> isn't that a problem? because individual airlines --
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it is a massive challenge for them to make decisions on a case-by-case basis. i remember when it was ukraine and we saw an aircraft downed by a missile system. airlines had to make decisions that were really difficult. isn't this a competency of governments or regulators that they should be saying yes or no? the airlines have the skill set to manage this kind of risk? >> many airlines do but not all airlines. that is an important point and you are right to highlight the important role that regulators face. manus: that was the iata director general. brussels has vowed more sanctions against belarus while imposing an effective flight blockade against the country. belarusian officials are also set to be added to the existing blacklist. broader measures to target businesses and the economy are being drawn up. my guest this morning is judy
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dempsey, nonresident senior fellow and editor-in-chief of strategic europe. thank you for being with me. the incident is described as state-sponsored hijacking. from the list of actions, which europe are proposing, airspace bands and etc., and repercussions on finance, are we seeing a substantial enough response at this juncture too, as michael calls it, state-sponsored hijacking? judy: it's not only state-sponsored hijacking, it is a fundamental attack on democracy, and especially on the eu, this is the first thing. secondly, if the eu had not taken action, other regimes intent on undermining the security of the aviation
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industry and using aircraft and passengers as ransom and hostages. the eu is coming up quickly with the statement but that is not the end of the story. manus: what else do you want to see from them? do you think the airspace closure is sufficient? what level of retribution would you like to see? judy: actions are very difficult because a, to implement them and b, who do they affect? the oligarchs and lukashenko, yes sanctions, but what about the protests into the peaceful tens of thousands of people who have come out on the streets this last august after the rigged presidential elections? how will this affect the citizens of belarus? maybe the eu should have a dual
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strategy, one to target the regime but also to deal with the protest in terms of providing assistance, providing visas, providing educational facilities in neighboring countries, support an independent trade movement, legal assistance. this kind of support is very important. sanctions are one thing but you cannot forget the peaceful protesters who now have shown the state is -- before august is over and president lukashenko has zero credibility. manus: many people join us and we talk about these high moments in geopolitics and they say sanctions often are a blunt instrument, and as you say, they hit the people on the ground more than anywhere else. we hear from mr. biden's administration, asking his team to develop options for a response. from a trade perspective, the u.s. and belarus only have over $100 million. what would the world expected
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the americas to do? their policy is not for engagement, it is disengagement. judy: good question. the eu and united states have to be hand in glove over belarus. secondly, lukashenko's future depends on what happens in the present, meaning how president putin will be with this. for the moment, russia has backed in many ways lukashenko. the european union and united states applying pressure on oliver's have to do two things. one is deal with the day after, that means preparing for transitional governments and financing the transitional government. ursula von der leyen said there would be a huge package of systems the day after. secondly, you have to understand putin's intentions. there were state security russian operatives on the plane. other passengers said they were
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allowed to finally leave and they landed without the russians. then we have to revisit a new strategy toward russia, continuing a discussion on what to do with the north stream -- nord stream gas pipeline, this is a prized asset for russia. manus: will there be a building voice now to stymie the nord str eam project? is it even conscionable or possible at this stage? judy: the eu is not united on this. the baltic states and poland want the pipeline to be stopped -- it is nearly complete. germany and angela merkel has supported this. the biden administration a few days ago waived the sanctions because they want better relations with germany and biden
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intends to start talking to rush on a different level. but these are the levers we have and we have to decide how we will do it. at the end of the day we have to decide how we will deal with de la rue's and the protesters, the demonstrators who want change and they are preparing for the day after. they need support for this. manus: is the u.s. hand tied in many ways my they react to belarus, with the bigger piece of global theater, which is u.s.-russian relations? judy: there's a lot of global theater and small theater. belarus may be a small theater but in the bigger strategic picture, what happens in belarus has a fundamental impact on democracies and other authoritarian regimes. if the eu and united states
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don't support the kind of elements to build a transitional government in belarus and take a tough stance on what lukashenko has done, essentially hijacking an aircraft, it sends a really bad signal to those who think they can blackmail the european union, and of course in turn with the united states. this will demand the transatlantic relationship working closely together with dealing with europe's neighbors. they have geostrategic implications and biden administration, if they are going to try to reset the relationship with russia, it has to be a two-way street. it has to be a shopping list of what one wants and the other can give. manus: judy, thank you for being my guest, judy dempsey carnegie europe. annabelle droulers has the first
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word news from hong kong. annabelle: the bank of england is tying down the risk of runaway inflation. governor bailey says the expected inflation will likely be temporary this year. that was echoed by one of his deputies, who said inflation will return to the bank's 2% target before it slows. the u.k. is starting formal preparations for a free trade deal with india. it wants to begin negotiation's later in the year as prime minister johnson seeks to prove the benefits of leaving the eu. they want a double trade between the countries between 2030. in 2019, it was worth about 23 billion pounds. amazon could announce its acquisition of the mgm movie studio as early as today. the e-commerce giant is in talks to pay a must $9 billion for the business, currently owned by hedge funds. that deal would bring a vast
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library of movies and shows to amazon, including james bond, pink panther, and rocky franchises. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: you know the question i'm going to put out there, can anyone sing the pink panther theme tune? i leave you with that thought. coming up on the show, from a once prominent investment bank to a decade spent as a sick man of europe. deutsche bank's fall from grace and impressive turnaround. ♪
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manus: "daybreak: europe," i am manus cranny in dubai. to deutsche bank. they are expected to highlight the turnaround in germany's largest lender. it is a far cry from the shareholder angst two years ago, remember that? when the bank was shackled with the sick man of europe finance tag. we take a deep dive into the recent changes at deutsche bank, it is today's big tank on the terminal and website. -- it is today's big story on the terminal and website. many people thought deutsche bank would be ubs's dinner. how did they turn it around? >> this has been a really
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impressive turnaround, as you said. one of the biggest ingredients in this was the ceo's ability to end infighting at the top of deutsche bank for many years. fighting for their fiefdoms. he replaced people he did not see as loyal to him and put together a management board that does what he says. this is then translated into an implementation. the previous management was unable to perform the steps they announced. this is been different under this ceo, he is known to be extremely meticulous, following up on the plans he sat on a daily and weekly calls. he's made a big difference. manus: that comes down to execution of strategy, doesn't it? in terms of stability for the
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bank, i can remember sometimes looking at the cds is on this bank and people were talking about a variety of options. would you describe it as a more stable institution? that's what customers want. >> yes. the cds curve, if you look at that, it is completely different. there was a strong peak last year for many banks, not just deutsche bank, in the aftermath of the pandemic crisis, but even before that, deutsche bank for many years suffered from elevated cds and credit spreads, making it less attractive to counterparties. they have clouds -- closed the gap and they are seen as competitive and not singled out by credit investors as weaker. that has made a tremendous different. manus: thank you so much, it is
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a big read, it is on your bloomberg terminal. stephen arons on deutsche bank. coming up, pressure grows on japan. it is battling covid head of a controversial olympics. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe."
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the united states says americans should avoid traveling to japan, with much of the country under a state of emergency over covid-19. that has sown doubts about tokyo's plans to host the olympics. we have rachel chang. will this impact the olympics? it was going to be a closed door event more or less. in terms of the travel advisory, how could it impact the olympics? rachel: first off, i think it is important to note the advisory was a symbolic move. for one thing, japan is not allowing any foreigners into the country so nobody can go there anyway. the level of infection in the u.s. is higher than japan, japan has 39 cases per million and in the u.s. it is something like 76. it's not that japan is the most dangerous place that it is a major setback to have such a
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high-profile reminder that the situation and japan is still quite concerning. the olympics are in less than two months and there's not a lot of public support for it internally. the u.s. olympic committee have said they want the athletes to go ahead and don't think they are in danger but there is a rising sense that the olympics could be possibly dangerous and not a very joyful event. manus: it will certainly be materially different if it goes ahead in terms of motivation for the athletes. how have the tables terms in the pan difficult situation for the u.s. compared to asia? last week was -- the numbers are lower but how are they relative to japan? rachel: the dynamic we are seeing between the u.s. saying don't go to japan is very much the tables turning on the asia-pacific region, which drew
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the pandemic was very much ahead of the u.s. and western nations. they got infections under control and life was more normal, fatalities were very low if at all. you compare that to the chaos in the u.s. and europe through much of last year. what has changed is the vaccinations coming through and asia is behind on vaccinations. slowest -- japan is the slowest on vaccination. you are seeing the western countries move so quickly ahead with reopening where in asia you don't have the level of protection because they did not have much infection and now they don't have vaccination. it is a concerning issue beyond the olympics. manus: ok, thank you so much, rachel chang with the latest on the state of play in japan and the upcoming olympics. we will leave you with a live shot of the united kingdom. we will have the european market open, mark and anna will take
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that for you. sterling is killing me at the moment. it is really a thing of beauty, that city. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> good morning, welcome to bloomberg markets. i'm anna edwards live in london. the cascade has just left -- less than an hour away. e.u. leaders have sanctions on belarus for the diversion of a jet. they label it and attack on democracy. glal


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