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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  May 25, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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is already rising, but stay higher for longer. >> it's really the supply side of the economy we don't have much information that the moment. >> the ad -- at the moment. >> the ideas the fed will be behind the curve as they tighten the process. >> i don't think rates are going anywhere, because the fed has been clear they will not allow any part of the curve to get away from them. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jon: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," alongside tom in and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures of 14, the s&p up 3%. on nasdaq, tech stocks doing nicely over the last week or so. here's the headline from the morgan stanley ceo, he sees the fed raising interest rates in early 2022. that's not too far away. tom: nine mental way, in fed speak, is three to four
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meetings, where it becomes front and center and sets up, let me get the fancy chart up that we have on the bloomberg terminal. fomc how about september 22? november 23? front and center. jon: the chief executive comes out with one view and morgan stanley has to come out into the media on tv. tom: allan's flyfishing, folks, over in continental europe somewhere tom: [laughter] she's looking at her phone going -- some work [laughter] he's looking at her phone going, he said what? jon: a rate hike in early 2020 two, that would be a surprise for many. lisa: one thing to front run myself, we are looking at a two-year option today. tom: here we go. lisa: i was looking at the fact we have basically seen it flatlining an actual yield, the earning on two years. basic nobody is pricing in the fed moving away from their
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policies for the foreseeable futures. tom: let's stop the show. lisa: please. tom: inform people like me who could care less about auctions, what information do you get from them? lisa: you get a sense of who is in the market bidding. you get a sense of how much the dealers are positioned for to take down, and how much investors are interested in coming in, and whether their indirect investors, foreign investors, direct investors, you get a sense of the demand dynamic. tom, i'm never going to on here fomc, you know it's, you love it. jon: totally love it. your five-year auction comes tomorrow. [laughter] the seven year auction comes a little later in the week. price action, good morning to you. tom: it's the belly of the curve. jon: that's right. it yields up by not only a basis point, up by a basis point, one for -- 1.5 910. a break of the downside, -- 1
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.5910. a break of the downside. euro stronger dollar weaker, some dollar weakness. 12255 on the dollar. tom: it is different than yesterday. yesterday was a market struggle, activities -- equities up, everything was a snooze fest. today was a lot more informative. jon: monday snooze fest, tuesday more informative. tom: it's true. not every day would be lights out. [laughter] lisa: ok. you guys when the find out what will be today that will be more informative and not a snooze fest? 10:00 a.m., a slow economic data and in u.s. new-home sales for the month of april, basically sales numbers going down as prices go up. just to give you a sense, the mediu -- median home price has risen 19% year-over-year, to give you a dramatic sense of the climb we have seen. that's records going back to
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1999. check out here, expectations for inflation. that is what i want to know. also at 10:00 am, vice chair of supervision fed is presenting to the senate banking committee. i'm curious to see how much he raises concerns about financial stability, pockets of froth. one thing i have been noticing is the federal reserve has been less willing to talk about froth in market. -- markets. it's an interesting dynamic emerging. at 1:00 p.m., you know it and you love it, u.s. is selling $60 billion or to your notes, setting off auctions tomorrow as john was mentioning. we have the five-year auction and thursday, about $60 billion of seven your notes. this is the auction that always creates trouble. i like to get a sense of who comes into bid -- comes in to bid, because it gives me a sense of the marginable demand going forward for treasury. jon: i'm with you.
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most people like to and fixed income as well. it has not had a heart be for a long time. lisa: that's the thing. no one is expecting the fed to raise rates anytime soon except for morgan stanley. jon: i'm so glad james spoke early this morning. sing the fed raising rates in early 2022, speaking at the nikkei financial conference and demand -- in japan. if you would indulge me and start there, a rate hike in early 2022, any pushback there? >> i would want to push back because it would be enter mental -- instrumental to what the training is doing here. you can't really push the story of inflation targeting, pushing the idea of dollar rate inflation being enforced then have a hike as soon as 2022.
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for this, you would have to see a complete [indiscernible] inflation is out of control, possibly the risks would really take precedence over what they're trying to achieve on the reflation side. everything is possible in this world, but it would certainly be a big shock and would take a lot for them to accept on the marketing strategy. tom: you have always strapped economic -- some comes back to the invention of a measured central bank. do you presume any central bank, in particular mr. gorman's fed could be measured in 2022? >> [indiscernible] one state to the world is
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thinking what happens is inflation is in control. in 2022, which is [indiscernible] at the same time, you have [indiscernible] thanks strong increase in debt and leveraging, pressure will be immense as you shift focus and disregard the reflation side and go into the hiking profits. that would go against the center of stability, predictability that the fed wants. it will be challenging. the cost to changing tacs so soon, i think [indiscernible] lisa: does it seem like the ecb and other central banks around the world, including frankly the pboc, have raised concerns about froth in u.s. markets? the federal reserve has been sanguine to -- sanguine
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about that froth. could you tell us what you make about this dynamic? gilles: echoes back to my old days in public service, i used to work or the bank. i was there at the time of the big story. this was 2004-2005, everything was about the u.s. running the economy red hot, green stand not wanting to [indiscernible] everyone else in the world and the ecb was saying you are playing with fire here and you should try to stop this si closed bubble before it is too late. we got it wrong in the sense, that the shock was not asset prices, not financial asset prices, it was housing. but foreign central banks, you
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are always playing with fire. my guess is that, again, we need to pay attention to the fact there is this disconnect between the u.s. economy doing really well, ahead of most other economies, and when you are in this situation, you will always have the same dialogue. the fed is going to say the reason for instance why our accounts is rising is because you guys are not doing enough to prop up your own economy. it is not because we are inflating our economy. the others will say you are creating danger here with what you are doing with replacing the economy, because this could actually trigger interest yields for everyone, including everyone. so the problem in europe is, as usual, even if the fed is super sanguine, super benign on inflation, long-term has
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increased in the u.s., and there is contingent to europe, coming at the wrong time for us. [indiscernible] so it is no longer is if we were bit critical. jon: you can see that in the italian bond market too. we have to leave it there. gilles moec, chief economist. headline from the morgan stanley ceo, he sees the fed raising rates in early 2022. you can either disagree with the fed was a forecast, or you can disagree with the framework and new reaction function and you can question that and whether the fed capitulates. those are two different views. it is unclear to me whether the morgan stanley ceo says i disagree with the forecast, the reaction function doesn't change, but the eyes pressure will be there through 2022 and a way that is not transitory but pushes them to move. that is the thing and i think it is key, you can disagree with the fed, but how you disagree with them, i think is important. if you disagree with their
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forecast or question the new reaction function? tom: the reaction function is the key thing, and key thing is plural, not one single reaction function. it is a number of things going on in the fiscal dynamic and monetary dynamic. as i've said for days and days, i would look at the real economy dynamic. i am sure that is one part of what mr. gorman is looking at. the tea leaves will tell. one of the tea leaves this morning, let's frame right now on euro, as we nudge toward 123, anything above a 123 is a big deal. jon: we saw north of 123i think january 6. if you look at a chart of euro-dollar, it looks like a v year-to-date. we saw the dollar dominant in q1, the u.s.'s sectionalism -- u.s. exceptionalism story. and outlooks to go the other way. lisa: where's the pressure from the fed to change the reaction function? you don't see a materially stronger or weaker dollar.
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meanwhile, you see longer-term inflation expectations come down. jon: but if it comes from the data, you can still disagree with the forecast. the fed has said if the inflation continues to overshoot , we will adjust. lisa: but it will take longer than the next couple months. jon: i think that'll be a story for the end of the year. we will have to find out if it is transitory or not and draw conclusions. at 7:00 a.m., we will catch up with a representative from wells fargo. you're up .3% on the s&p. a break on the 10 year. this is bloomberg. ♪ valentijn with the first -- >> with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the world has been battling the virus for over year but the quality of life and control the spread look different depending on where you are. there is a shakeup at the top of bloomberg's resilience.
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the u.s. and parts of europe have been steadily climbing up the ranking as the pandemic slowly receives and vaccination numbers climb. the u.k. jumped to seven spots to 11th and the u.s. is number 13. new zealand took the top. u.s. equities steve lincoln landed in israel on amy lee's mission aimed at shoring up the reason cease-fire between israel and hamas. lincoln's meeting with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu and other top israel'l head to the city to speak with the -- deutsche bank is moving about tony 5% of its startups in the european union and asia. bloomberg learned about 100 jobs will be moved in an attempt to reduce cost and put staff closer to the clients they serve.
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>> we do have to strongly condemn the actions taken by
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belarus. what they did sunday, intercepting an aircraft purely put the passengers and crew that aircraft forced them --unacceptable behavior. jon: good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. here's the tuesday morning price action. the bow continues on the equity 500 -- on the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100 up 65, we advance .5%. yields breaking down through 1.6 -- one pointing zero. the dollar weaker, -- 1.60. the dollar weaker. tom: everything on the screen, the gets my attention. a -0.88 is not where we were yesterday, is it? jon: worth keeping an eye on. another i, and interview going
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on with the germans finance minister taking base right now area german finance minister singh we are angry about the action by belarus. the question on the commercial relationship between germany and russia, and the german finance minister saying the nord stream 2 project is a private project almost complete. that is where there is real tension between germany and the allies, including the united states and relationship, ongoing commercial relationship with russia. tom: it's the lairs of sanctions and -- layers of sanctions. joining us now is marty schenker. marty, you and i saw sanctions worked in south africa, and boy did they work. a different story and different time and place. i walked in this morning and guy johnson taught me to look at flight aware, and there was fedex flight, let me get it on the screen looking at the
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two-year auction. it was attics flight 5030, china to germany, flying over belarus. is fedex doing their part? marty: the question is does fedex have an alternative? if it is fedex, it is a cargo flight and there are no passengers involved. there has been no formal ban on flying over belarus, at this point, even though there are people calling for that kind of sanction. it seems unlikely they are going to be able to enforce that. tom: it seems a lot of our audience is saying you can fix this, you just gotta put will in place. in your reporting, does the wheel focus just in belarus or are we going to have to pull moscow into it? marty: i think they want to avoid pulling moscow into it. in fact, we have some reporting around what is happening in moscow, that putin specifically wants to distance himself from this action, even though the
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foreign ministry kind of back it. it is unclear how coordinated this thing was. lisa: how much does this complicate president biden's summit with putin? marty: it makes it -- and adds another layer of complication for sure, because the world has a way of imposing its agenda on world leaders, and this seemingly rogue action will force joe biden to confront vladimir putin on his involvement in this. lisa: how much consensus is there among congress members about the approach the u.s. should be taking with respect to these discussions with vladimir putin, especially given some of the dissonance between bite and waddle perspective and former president trump? marty: i think there's relatively bipartisan feeling in congress between immigrants and republicans that vladimir putin needs to be confronted on these issues, not just on what's happening in belarus but going back to election interference and other things that russia has
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refused to a knowledge. tom: let me rip up the script. it is the time of your work congress types go home. what do they do when they go home? with your years and decades of experience, what to they actually do when they go home? marty: they fund raise. to be quite honest, they do hold some interactions with their constituents, but most of the time, they are meeting with donors and making sure their campaign finances are in order. tom: are they told what to do? does it ever change the dialogue in washington that they go home and listen to constituents? marty: there are rare occasions where the public mood is so great that it might in fact cause them to change it stands, but most of the time, it makes no difference. lisa: right now, we are waiting for republicans to come back with some counterproposal to the $1.7 trillion reduced bill president biden has put out.
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do we have a sense of the contours of what the counterproposal might look like? marty: the republicans who are negotiating on this bipartisan bill have said the 1.7 join dollars has things in it -- $1.7 trillion has things in it that are not infrastructure and they will not go there. it will be an interesting dynamic to see if joe biden is willing to compromise in the hope of getting a bipartisan deal on infrastructure. jon: do you think there is a clock ticking here on the stocks? marty: i think there are. he wanted to get this done before july 4, and it is looking less likely they will be able to do that. jon: marty schenker, bloomberg editor-at-large. we caught up with emily wilkins and i think she nailed it at some degree. to the midterms and i see her, it is not about getting it done before the midterms. getting it done and making sure it is already executed before the midterms next year so that people see it, experience what comes out of the other side of
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the bill and not just looking at a bill and an agreement in isolation. tom: i will go nothing has changed. the other side doesn't want the other side to get credit for any legislation. jon: and the scope of infrastructure as marty said a million times, that is still a question we have not agreed on the answer of. tom: we have an agreed on infrastructure, haven't repair the bridges and, i'm going to say, 30 years -- in, i'm going to say, 30 years. this has been going on for decades. jon: and people expected to go on for a few more years. lisa: this all comes at a time where we deal with disparities from the pandemic, exacerbated by the pandemic. the biden administration wants to convince people this is part of the economic dynamism of the united states, that bringing people up and being more equal is an economic case. the question is, where is the data, and how they will sell that to a highly skeptical congress. jon: we have a philosophical disagreement on one thing at the moment, what is infrastructure?
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that has been the story for the last several months. that seems to be a a hurdle -- a hurdle they connected over. lisa: this plane doesn't have that much in terms of traditional infrastructure. that said, can they broaden infrastructure beyond roads and bridges to for example more energy-efficient projects and things like that? aside from some of the social projects, how much are they willing to cave on both sides? jon: coming up, marvin low, senior global market strategist. your s&p 500 up 12, we advance .3%. the nasdaq up 66 points. the nasdaq 100 up about .5%. yields coming in. tom: what does that mean? jon: we talked about this the last couple days, you just happened to ignore me. [laughter] lisa: ignoring for the past couple days. [laughter] jon: it's the same story of the -- it's the same sort
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everything day. i think morgan stanley did a nice job of pushing back against that. so many people are talking about that. when everyone starts today, you have to think how far you want to dig. we had met on yesterday. tom: i we did? -- oh we did? [laughter] lisa: attention is transitory. ♪
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jon: 6:30 in new york, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." equity market shaping on, the s&p 500 up 11 or 12 points. we advance .3%. the nasdaq is up .5% after a big gain on the nasdaq 100 yesterday. to get to the bond market, twos, tens, 30's, your yield curve as follows. your tenure over the last one year, i keep doing this, breaking 160 on a tenure at 1.5910. lisa going through the bond auction later on today, seven year coming up on thursday. your two-year has not had a heartbeat for much of the last 12 months since the fed dropped interest rates. when likes of james gorman makes a call like interest rates are
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going to rise in early 2022, you have to start thinking about why. this is what the fed essentially offers, a forecast and reaction function. this is where we think the data we -- data will be, and this is how we will react to said data. if you will disagree with the fed, you will disagree with the forecast, the data, or disagree with how you think they will react to the data? i think the bar for the latter is higher than the bar for the former. you can disagree with the data, but do you want to disagree with the reaction function? that implies you know what they will think or are thinking in the future. the bond market, fx market shaping up as follows, for euro-dollar, we have a chart. what i like about this chart is the euro-dollar, for all of the talk of the dollar bearishness at the start of the year, euro-dollar came down to 1.17. when 10 yields peaked, that was
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on was the peak of u.s. sec. liz a -- u.s. exceptionalism. the higher the year was 1.23 on january 6. i think you have said repeatedly, tom, when we inch toward those levels -- tom: let's talk about the level right now. jon, this is so important that we have to frame it. we frame this six to eight months ago, the 1.3 and 1.29 angst for europe, that has changed. jon: i've heard 1.25 in goldman, and i have no idea what the ecb could do about it. i think their biggest concern right now is not to the fx channel, it is what is starting to happen to italy on the periphery. eels have been bumping up. tom: the only reaction function -- yields have been bumping up. jon: you think punching tino comes back? tom: i do, but i can't pronounce his name. let's go to marvin low, state street senior global macro strategist always writing,
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linking fed policy to the markets. marvin, i want to go to morgan stanley gaming out 2022 to the chairman with the weight of the world on his shoulders, to what it means for the equity market. i want you to ask planes our radio and tv audience what this fed babel means for stocks. marvin: you know what's, it is as simple as how much liquidity and how ultimately dovish the fed makes it for the market. with negative real yields, you have a repressive financial system and equities benefit from the fact there are not that many alternatives. if you are buying a treasury security at this point, you are buying into the view you are going to lose money after reflation ultimately. in terms of how you parse the fed, in terms of whether or not they are correct and inflation will be transitory is the key that all of us are asking right now. tom: i think this is so
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important, and for our radio audience, we go from gorman to powell, and the jargon is djia, the dow jones industrial average. jon: when you responded to that question, you are not talking about the shift in the fed's reaction function, you are talking about the data coming in hotter than they anticipate. do you think that is the lower bar here, to disagree with the forecast and say it'll look a little different in the future to the way they anticipate? marvin: yeah, i mean, i think the real challenge is that the fed is giving us a message that it has not believed in the forecast in the past, that's why they have become outcomes based. everything is based on their view that data is going to be transitory. from one instance, the numbers -- the belief is the numbers are going to get into much more familiar to what we have seen before. the other side, we don't necessarily believe what we have seen in the past is accurate.
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the risk is that not only is the data coming in hotter, remains totter is important, and the fed is so far behind the curve that it is hard for them to catch up, not necessarily saying 80's type of environment, but we are talking massive balance sheets with the potential of slip-ups. jon: you think in one way they are contradicting themselves when they say they are outcomes based but will give you a long enough lead time to know what we are thinking about, talking about, whatever, when it comes to tank rig? marvin: absolutely. and i think what we saw earlier in terms of yield, in terms of real yield coming off of the bottom being less negative, is an example the market is not necessarily 100% comfortable with the fed's ability to do everything that it says. having said that, to push against the fed, where he does have coverage, is something that keeps us in the range, even
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though we have had data on both sides in terms of surprises to the upside and downside. lisa: where's the bigger risk right now? do yields go up or yields go lower? marvin: i think it is lower to be honest with you. to get materially lower, you have to really abandon the growth we expect to have, not only from reopening but from the fact we got as much savings as we have, and we are producing above trends or at least the next year/year and a half area lisa: if that is the case, -- half. lisa: if that is the case and a lot of people would agree with you, isn't the fed doing what you would hope the fed would do? run the economy as hot as possible because the downside risk to the economy and to yields is way worse and more difficult for them to combat than the alternative? marvin: absolutely. i think that is why risk assets remained as supportive as they have been over the course of the last couple months, despite whether it is medical, virus
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volatility, and/or other volatility in the market. tom: so much of the exercise are now, and i to this as a -- at a macrolevel, is this news flow coming out of an original natural disaster into a boom economy. we have not seen this on a 47-48. what should our listeners and viewers do, given a boom economy? how do they allocate, given the macro flow of news? marvin: you know, i think rates and the fed is the backdrop around that. as long as you have these negative yields in a booming economy, it is supporting to risk asset and supporting for taking the equity risk. that becomes part of the asset allocation discussion. then, this has been a market where we are looking for those that might benefit more than others. tom: john from coventry says go matthew right now. let's go matthew, marvin.
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when you see the real yield come up from a substantial negative you level -- negative level toward it did in the german tenure, is this a linear or quadratic movement? marvin: i think the markets should be able to handle 0% real yields. you should not need a repressive financial system for companies to do well. there is a level within the real yield discussion when it becomes more positive then zero that you wind up with alternatives. the risk/reward amongst efferent asset classes coming into play. zero real yield, at this point, from a 10 year perspective, is still 80 basis points away, and should not be enough to derail how companies are able to still perform well in an environment where you have policy growth. jon: you think europe can handle zero real yields? marvin: that is certainly a much different type of equation.
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there demographics are different, certainly the amount of fiscal stimulus is different -- their demographics are different, certainly the amount of financial stimulus is different. that is the conundrum the ecb has as they try to sound as dovish as they can, but ultimately, it is moving along the same normalization path without as much of a growth response that we are seeing here. jon: ultimately, isn't that the tension, the issue here, the u.s. market cannot trade in vacuum. you get a move toward real yields -- zero real yields, can you imagine what it looks like in europe? marvin: it is the conundrum of the ecb. a lot of different economies with a lot of different speeds, and you have one organization trying to keep it all together with one number, whereas, certainly for us with the dollar, it is much easier. jon: good luck in the ecb
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meeting. marvin: absolutely. the focus is going to be on what they do -- everyone is looking at the size of the balance sheets, and that being the first stage of the normalization. the lahm -- the envelope structure itself leads itself to a natural crosses. it's an important meeting in the middle of summer. marvin, good to catch up. your tenure in germany this morning. negative about 15 to 16 basis points. just coming in basis point this morning. tom: they're coming in, and i go again to everybody talking higher yields. i'm looking at for digits, 1.5910 on the nominal 10 year. i think this show we sort of expected this range and attempts to come under 1.60. most of the street is looking for 1.65. jon: matt hornbeck of morgan stanley i think described where he was recently in the last one to four hours, including on
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the show, that he is leaning the other way. he is starting to think about his bull case for treasuries and forecast for the treasury yield. lisa: one of the reasons behind this is how much there already has been that movement. you are talking about whether germany can handle no yields, zero, on the tenure after having the negative for so long -- having been negative for so long. the 100 year austrian bond sold nearly a year ago has posted a 30% loss on a price adjusted basis since then. to give you a sense of how significant the move has been . jon: coming up, dr. a bishop melcher -- dr. indulge a -- dr. adele john. -- tom: you killed me on that. lisa: how did i kill you on that? tom: i bought it at par. jon: he brought the 2117 bond? lisa: leverage?
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jon: they had a great your last year. tom: i didn't get out at 1.40. lisa just ruined my morning. lisa: oh yeah? transitory. [laughter] jon: i'm sure it's not transitory. [laughter] from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> more than 1.6 billion covid vaccine doses have been administered globally according to data collected by bloomberg news and john hopkins university worldwide. the latest vaccination rate is 28.5 million doses per day. the top infectious disease doctor in the u.s. has it roughly 70% to 85% of the country's population would need to be vaccinated in order for a return to normalcy.
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president biden will meet privately at the white house today with the family of george floyd one year after his murder. the meeting comes as negotiators are working on policing legislation in congress, still stuck on how to hold officers accountable for excessive use of force. biden hoped legislation in his name would be passed by the anniversary of his death. eu leaders are bowing sanctions on belarus and are imposing an effective flight blockade on the country after the fourth landing of a jet and the arrest of a dissident journalist. the block is looking up belarusian officials who should be added to a blacklist. ashen leaders are looking at border measures to target businesses and entire sectors of the belarusian economy. and a powerful cyclone us had to slam into india wednesday. the second in less than two weeks. officials are gearing up for relief operations at a time where the country is facing the world's worst outbreak of covid-19.
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forecasters say the cyclone is equivalent to a category three hurricane and will bring heavy rains and winds of up to 115 miles per hour to some regions in eastern india. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> don't think it will really be sustainable to be putting on and taking off us a different travel
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restrictions, especially when the restrictions are so floris. often the restrictions do not apply in your own country, understandably, but they can get infected and bring the virus in. i think vaccination, particularly with evidence the vaccination does work against variants, has to be the can strolled -- the control strategy. jon: that was the john hopkins bloomberg school of public health vice dean. from new york, alongside tom keene at lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. here's your equity markets. up about .3% on the s&p 500. the nasdaq, up about 50 points. we advance .4%. bond market, yields at 159 -- 1.5910. euro-dollar, up a little bit making the euro-dollar 1.2534. then crew down .3%. tom: we speak to experts who
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have been good about that, new people recently, and also people who have returned. -- returned after day and week after week including the doctor and her senior scholar. jonathan ferro has been good about the poker game of the different european countries. it lets triangulate is one example, the united kingdom, germany, and spain. are we naive in the united states that we are not translating new york, kansas, and idaho? >> i think the country is on different times when it comes to vaccination, but overall, the country is looking better as a whole then many of the eu countries where you have a hodgepodge of policy, vaccination rollout. for example, the u.k. is in a much better place than mainland europe. i think you will see that distinction you present until a significant portion of the
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populations are vaccinated where you will see. also, i think they have different ways of thinking about the virus. the u.k., the u.s. has been coming into focus a lot on preserving hospital capacity, and realizing this is not a virus that will go away. there are some european countries, as well as places like australia and new zealand, that have set up a fantastical notion of covid zero, which will not occur. tom: one common theme is to keep vaccinating people. what is the number of vaccinations per day for the u.s. to create momentum? is it 500,000, eight hundred thousand, or do we need to sustain above one million units per day? dr. adalja: i don't look at it in terms of doses per day. i did early on because that was a function on how well the vaccine rollout was reaching the people wanting to be vaccinated. we used prioritization. not everyone was the same priority to get the vaccine and
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we gave a lot of the vaccines early on to high risk individuals in order to flatten the curve and preserve hospital capacity. that group of the population is very heavily vaccinated. if you look at people above 60 or above 65, .3% of them are fully vaccinated and that should remove the ability of the virus to cause hospitalizations and death. now i would say we are dealing with a mop up, trying to get transmission down but we are out of the point where this is a public of emergency stressing hospitals. as long as we vaccinate as much as possible, that is great, but i think we have achieved the first goal of the virus. jon: as you said, this is no longer a public health emergency. any reason to believe they could become one in the future? dr. adalja: in the united states, it would be difficult to see this virus spiral out of control and threaten hospitals again, because the virus does not see people equally. we have vaccinated really those groups of people that constitute
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the majority of people -- constituted the majority of the people. the more we get vaccine into people, the better it will be. i think we can -- jon: if the variant first identified in india became the dominant strain here, would you say the same thing with confidence? dr. adalja: i do think, when you look at the vaccine, especially the mrna vaccines, they seem effective when it comes to this variant. the solution to the india variant, the way to make your country resilient is get as much track scene into people's arms as possible. i don't think any of these variants could prose the problems to the u.s. because of our strategy. if your country not heavily vaccinated, it could be disastrous. if you have vaccines in the arms of most vulnerable, the virus will have a difficult time putting people in the hospital. they will move through the community but not crushed a hospital. lisa: it seems like there's a
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disagreement emerging within the public health community about whether this is a public health emergency still or whether we have emerged in a post-pandemic era. what are the scientific underpinnings of that disagreement? is there some threshold people are looking at where cases will go down dramatically and people disagree on that? dr. adalja: it is hard. each person looks at this pandemic differently. i always set i look at it from a hospital capacity angle and others look at it at a case level. i think that is the wrong way to look at it. this virus is something that can be eliminated or radically -- eradicated. our goal is to defang it. we are getting to the point where we are on average adding close to a seasonal flu. i think that dampens the public health emergency. we have enough act scenes to the vulnerable population, vaccines and plentiful, still trying to reach more people and are not wearing about ppe, icu beds
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anymore. we have a pediatric indication. i think all of that changed when we have to think about this virus. now we ask ourselves, would we do this for a bad flu season? if we would not, i thing that is how we would gauge where we are now in the u.s. with covid-19. it is a different story outside of the country, even in northern -- orth of canada, but it is still something i think we have to recalibrate and change people's risk perception, because we have done such a good job about getting vaccines into people that needed it. jon: as you alluded, that comes down to messaging, and i think we have to make a bigger effort on that front. what kind of messaging do you take away from travel restrictions right now? can you make sense of them from a public health perspective? dr. adalja: i've never been able to make sense for travel research and's for any disease because they don't work. they are for politicians because they are face value validity to them and the general public, but
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they never work. they give people a false sense of security. there are all these premises baked into them. that the disease is already wrecking your borders, all of that really makes no sense. i think travel screening and the fact you have vaccines in the fact we have rapid tests, that is what we should be doing rather than travel restrictions. i think they end up backfiring and reads a cascade of travel restrictions for other countries doing it and are not sustainable and are not supported by the signs of what is going on with highly contagious reps of tori -- contagious respiratory virus and has a large spectrum of symptoms so you don't know where things are. jon: we had to leave it there. dr. amesh adalja of johns hopkins center for health security senior scholar. the science is proven, covid knows if you are a citizen or not. tom: they do. jon: of course it does. tom: whether you're in economy or business class. jon: whether you are standing up
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to go to the restroom or sitting down in the restroom. tom: we won't go there. [laughter] lisa: oh lord. coming up, wells fargo, up 11 on the s&p and we advance on the nasdaq i .4%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> we've already had a bit of a melt up, so we don't expect another melt up to happen. >> the data has some in the economy that we don't have very much. >> it is very clear that they are not going to allow any part of the curve to really get away from them. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures with a lift, up 11 on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, up 0.3% after a tiny rally in yesterday's session. for now, big


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