tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg August 20, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
-- a strong economy, they are just less likely to participate. >> it is likely to return to the growth levels of early 2020, prior to the pandemic. >> it is not so much about inflation, is what the fed will do. >> there are signs they need to be tapering. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning by friday simulcast. thrilled you are with us. jonathan ferro on extended sabbatical in crete. kailey leinz is helping out this morning. futures at negative 17. dow futures at negative. if you are on radio, you are advantaged. if one of these blues does not look like the other blues. lisa: you cannot criticize us off the bat for what we are
wearing. tom: i am in blue, kailey's in b lue, lisa's in blue -- it's a blue friday. kailey: take it up with wardrobe. tom: looks like the san jose sharks on a bad day. [laughter] it has been a week of four fridays p that is how long this week has been. lisa: i know. it says more about how we are feeling this summer -- is it over yet? the pandemic is sort of coming back to the psychological hit, in addition to some of the pressures on the travel and leisure sector sending a new tone. this is what i take away. tom: off the gloom yesterday -- we were doing the gloom show, the markets catching a bid. and a real sustained level. lisa: if you look under the surface, yes, it was -- it has been fascinating. i've been shares that have
absolutely gotten crushed. amazon, which is interesting. other shares have held in nicely and have done, back to this sort of stay home economy in big tech, dominance. it raises the question are we seeing a correction in a nuanced way sector by sector that we do not even notice? tom: an extraordinary story in kabul and in washington. we are all watching what we see in this horrific, ongoing story. kailey: we of course are. i am not sure of the market gives much credence to what is happening in afghanistan, as far as geopolitical risk. it seems to be more about the delta variant, the possibility of a fed taper coming. and then you have china, and perhaps that is idiosyncratic in terms of the technology crackdown, but the growth story feeds into a lot of concerns. tom: and the growth story -- get
off china. jon ferro was good on focusing on that story. futures -18, dow futures negative 143. the vix at 223 point 07. and the bond space, on the board. 1.2316. that is a grinding oomph down, and you see it in curve flattening, a solid 1.01 percentage points between the 10-year and the two-year. tell me what to do with oil. lisa: stockpile it in your living room, clearly. i will say there is a new tone to markets. i would argue perhaps the bond market has been out front, people saying it is the fed, jon saying do not blame the fed, because in this case, it is probably more delta variant and
supply chain that has more to do . let's get you through what we are looking at today. a snoozy friday, if you want to go ahead and leave early on vacation, i will not tell. dallas fed president robert kaplan ready to speak p.a.d. has taken or of a hawkish position. i will be interested to see what fed chair powell's as next week regarding the inflationary pressures on supply chain disruptions paired with a slowdown. how does the fed deal with this when some people say these inflationary pressures are more than just transitory and have longer-lasting impacts, especially of supply chain disruptions last longer? talking afghanistan situation, german chancellor angela merkel meeting with russian president vladimir putin. among the discussions as on the limit -- as angela merkel wraps up her tenure, the german
embassy will be one of the remaining embassies in kabul here the question is how they will use that to their advantage. they have typically had an ok relationship. how will she reframe it after the conference? 1:00 p.m., the baker's use u.s. rate count -- tom: why do you like this? explain this. so what, the baker's-hughes? kailey: one of the things that you can see the number of rgis in operation in the u.s. plunged in the direct aftermath of the pandemic. they have come up but, very slowly. we have questions impeach shale. tom: we are thrilled to start strong with dennis gartman, a retired editor of "the gartman letter." it is a jewel today.
that cartoon, dennis gartman, in your morning letter is painful. dennis: it is very painful. the similarities between what happened in 1975 in saigon and what is happening now in afghanistan are frightening for those of us who were around in the 1970's and remember how that looked. it is dismaying to see the united states' position in the world has diminished as badly as it has been. this is a long, long week. we have a long time ahead of us to worry about the loss -- tom: lisa wants to jump in, but your newsletter is a jewel on how prices are priced at the margin. almost a marginal pricing of the margin at the margin. explain that. dennis: first of all, in all markets, prices are made at the margin. the last 2% of buyers become sellers, prices go down.
last 2% of sellers become buyers, prices tend to go up. what bothered me this time was looking at the level of margin being used in the stock markets these days have been going up 15 consecutive months, coextensive with a bull market in stock prices, that -- but there has always been a leading indicator that the use of market has led to the downside, to the upside. now, in july, these of margin -- and i maintain that is where wise and sophisticated smart money has been leaving the market since july. it is disconcerting. it tends to lead the stock market higher or lower by two or three months. when you start to see margin usage declining, you need to be careful about the stock arc itself. it is one of the leading stock market decade as i learned to watch. lisa: what does this mean in terms of some sort of drawdown,
considering a draw these days is perhaps half a percentage point decline? dennis: i think there is more going on than half a point decline. take a look at the broader market. we tend to pay too much attention to the dow, the s&p, way too much to the nasdaq, and nobody is paying attention to the broad russell index, which has not made a new high in several months, has broken trendlines several weeks ago that goes back into march of last year. something is happening in the broad market that does not seem to be paid -- taking place publicly of the public is still involved in the market, still sees the dow making new highs, the s&p and nasdaq making new highs. you brought up the fact you have to pay attention to what happened in amazon. amazon gapped lower dramatically and has not come close to bouncing since then at all. amazon had been one of the leaders to the upside. when the generals get taken out and get shot, you have to be worried about what the sergeants and corporals and privates will
be doing. kailey: and i look at things like the aaii sentiment survey, the bears exceeding the bulls for the first time this year. have we seen a real shift in sentiment this week? dennis: i think we have. people talking about the inevitable tapering of the fed's policies. that will happen -- weather happens in october, november, december, january, certainly it will happen. i maintain all along the great bull market has been almost solely educated on expansionary policies, not just by the fed by the bank of canada, the ecb, the bank of japan. the fed, clearly, will start the process of tapering. whenever that happens, that is less money coming into the market. money will leave the state -- stock market and go -- that is what happens. stocks go up before the economy turns higher.
stocks will start moving lower and the economy will continue to not boom but be quite expensive, quite strong. tom: dennis gartman, thanks. too short a visit. chairman of the university of akron's endowment fund. john deere earnings. in the old agent days, it was part of the cfa curricula. the sentiment here is optimistic. they have robust conditions out there. lisa: right now what you are seeing, and this goes into the food inflation story, demand increase or prices increased, people need to plant more, and you get equipment, especially for farming -- it highlights how markets respond to upward revisions, upward forecasts. if you could see the shares are lower in premarket trading. tom: kailey, you will not
understand this, being an urban girl, but a girl out in fargo, north dakota, the idea is you have to upgrade to the next john deere tractor, right? kailey: for the record, i may be a new york city girl now, but i am averaging a girl at heart. tom: but there are precious to get the marginal tractors there. lisa: go ahead, reprise your power, kailey. kailey: i am looking and they said they had strong results, so they are able to withstand pressure for now. tom: how in gods name did she get on this show? she actually read their press release? lisa: she put blue on and came on set here at "bloomberg surveillance." [laughter] ♪
>> in afghanistan, more scenes of cares act kabul airport. the u.s. is rushing to evacuate people. taliban checkpoints around the airport are making a tougher people to enter, raising concerns citizens will be prevented from leaving. meanwhile, the white house as the u.s. evacuated almost 3000 people yesterday. in australia, sydney's two-month long lockdown will be extended until at least the end of september. the coronavirus outbreak has gotten worse in the country's biggest city. new zealand linked sydney's outbreak to at least three local cases. the three-day lockdown has been extended to at least tuesday. coronavirus patients are dying at u.s. hospitals in rates not seen since february. the number of people dying with confirmed or suspected covert rose to a seven day average of
1016 wednesday. it will be the biden administration's most high-profile trip to asia yet. the vice president will look to bolster economic and military cooperation in china's backyard. she will visit singapore and vietnam starting this weekend. leaders there will look to harris to reassure them of america's role as a major trading profile. meanwhile, harris will be able to raise her international profile. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
in kabul now has more than 5002 hundred total troops on the ground. kabul airport remains secure and open for flight operations. since the start of evacuation operations august 14, we have airlifted approximately 7000 total evacuees. tom: the general from brigham young university, general taylor, is a different general with massive on the ground experience in afghanistan. he was the guy at west point who taught you jiu-jitsu and these other physiology things, you know, wrestling on the floors of the mats at west point. he is a distinguished number of our military. just as distinguished, annmarie hordern joins us now. how is the pentagon doing this morning? annmarie: they are getting a lot of questions. i think the pentagon is trying to work through the process -- they said there will be 6000
troops on the ground. you heard from admiral kirby it is actually 5200, but they are getting people out. not at the maximum level of they are capable of. they are trying to reach up to that level. the other problem they are dealing with, and this is more of the state department, and the representative late into the administration on this, less so the military but diplomats that need to be on the ground to make sure they go through people's paperwork before they get on the flight. lisa: where are we in terms of paperwork? that was part of the issue, they cannot bring people over because of promising paperwork. annmarie: from what representative moulton said, they wanted to double it. they had 20 people on the ground. let's mind you, this is an individual who was a democrat and a former marine, serving tours in iraq. he said this is one of the greatest foreign policy errors.
we will get an update today. the president of the united states will be briefing the american people, giving a speech alongside the vice president before she jets off to asia, about afghanistan. we will know where we are from the president of the united states. the situation on the ground is incredibly fluid. if you look at the reports, and you can see there the video from kabul. lisa: although his tone has been consistent. we have heard him several times already, and his tone is defined, saying we did it the best we could, we had to get out of there, we withdrew under the parameters we understood. what more could he say today? annmarie: we have to wait and see. we know the president will at least update the american people on their assessment of how many americans they have gotten out, as well as many of afghan applicants, special immigration
visas, and what comes next. the deadline is something to consider. the august 21 deadline is -- august 31 deadline is important, because that is what the u.s. negotiated with taliban. you have the u.s. having security control of a capital, but you have taliban security checkpoints around the airport. so what happens august 31 if they do not have their evacuation program underway and completed? this is where things could get potentially precarious and risky, as jake sullivan, the national security advisor, had said to nbc. kailey: is this solely for the executive branch to deal with? i know the house will get an unclassified briefing on afghanistan today. they're coming back next week to deal with the reconciliation vote. will we see any action from congress on afghanistan? annmarie: congress right now just wants answer. you see immense bipartisan
pressure on how did we get to this place? there will be declassified briefing monday with house ranking members and then friday with all house members on exactly what went on in afghanistan. there is a lot of pressure on this administration, to have answers, and for the state department, the washington post writing that there was a cable sent on the deteriorating situation in july. tom: an unfair question, but i will go with it anyway -- and all your reading and contacts, do we have a clue what is going on in kandahar or up to the north? annmarie: what we do know is that there is not a u.s. presence there, and the taliban has control. so you have a lot of individuals who are feeling that they are a bit back footed on the situation and many people in hiding -- it
is very difficult for these people to get out of the country. it would be incredibly difficult for those individuals who want to get out to make their way to kabul, but you cannot get out through iran or turkmenistan right now because the borders are locked by the taliban. tom: a long, long friday ahead as the president will address the nation. thank you so much. back to the markets. lisa, i think you have emphasized it twice about commodities linked in. ed morse looks smart, calling for lower oil prices. lisa: and back a couple months, people were calling for perhaps $100 a barrel and how much that picture has changed. the idea that this delta variant changed the dynamic, and whether it is a pause or a shift in the
trajectory of the recovery remains to be seen. tom: kailey, lisa and i darkened the door around 5:52 a.m., what are you getting? kailey: once again, i am seeing a similar pattern when i walk in the door, that futures are lower with deeply red in asia at 2:45 a.m. we ended the day positive. it will be interesting to see if that by the debt mentality comes in. tom: their trading crew is talking about gamma options on the rest of it. i am just talking about a vix 23.13 as well. lisa, we have to announce, as we did lightly yesterday, one week from today, lisa abramowicz and i will come from the shores of jackson hole with michael mckee,
and the chairman will be virtual. lisa: i am still trying to get my head around the geographer you imagine we are heading to in the mountains of the ocean there. [laughter] tom: there is a big swamp, seriously. when the central bank delete go out and wave to the elk and do all that, it is a huge swamp over a good mile and a half, with all sorts of animals and there. trout -- ken prewitt used to fly fish out there. lisa: you look at and see all the animals. one person who will be disappointing the moose and the elk will be jay powell, because he will stay in washington, d.c. others, including vince reinhardt, who will be coming up, will also forgo a visit because of the delta variant, which highlights where we are in this pandemic. but we will be there and waving at the elk. maybe nobody else. [laughter] tom: a different conference. michael mckee lining up important conversations.
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on radio, on television. it is a friday. getting you ready for weekend reading. everyone reading on afghanistan and reading on the markets. kailey leinz and for jon ferro today. mr. ferro begins a well-deserved sabbatical on crete. margie patel with us, senior portfolio manager, which barely describes the experience she has. it is one of the most optimistic notes on this economy and the need to participate in markets i've seen in weeks. define, describe your optimism. margie: my optimism is really based on the way the fed
operates nowadays. the fed used to be cyclical. they slammed on the brakes, slowed the economy, then fled the system with cash and economy ago. now they are on this secular easing. no sign at all there will be any tightening on the horizon for the foreseeable future. that says to me we will not have what we think of as a normal cycle, we will just have steady growth in the economy. maybe a little slower from the covid bounce back, but enough to make it a good market for equity investors. tom: the conundrum of your successes pricing yield versus dividend growth. which has the high ground now? margie: you definitely have to look at equities for all the uncertainties, simply because, on a yield basis, they are very competitive. with investment grade bonds, the average yield of the s&p for example is about equal to a five year investment grade corporate bond -- that does not make any sense if we have any sort of growth. lisa: you said in an early
appearance the fed effectively crushed the credit cycle or flattened it, withers back to the potential default we will see. the extra yield that investors have to earn in order to hold these at benchmark rates, when you see it climb to the highest level since march of this year, as we are at now, does that give you a buy signal based on the fact that the fed has the markets' back or is it a precautionary signal of more to come? margie: no, i think it really refax what is going up in the ups and downs of the treasury market rather than high-yield. there is strong demand for high-yield steel, and there should be, because you get three percentage points more yield, and defaults, excluding energy, is only about 1%, so there is little not to like in the high-yield market -- except low yields. lisa: there is another issue. how do you provide fundamental research and look at specific names when there is such a
central bank the entire market? margie: i think that market supports the price earning ratios. i think that makes basically yield securities, bonds rather uncompetitive, and i think in the treasury market, there are scarcity issues, because the fed has bought up all the free bonds, about one third of the bonds. when you look at companies, you have to say who can grow faster than we think will be pretty modest, 2% or 3% for the next couple years, and look at those companies with sustainable earnings growth? kailey: does it have to mean tech? margie: yes, i think tech has a lot of opportunities. you have to be choosy because we have had pe's of many companies be blown out because people are very optimistic, but i think, as we go into the second half of the year, we will see more of a conversion on growth from different sectors, so we may see the year come out with very high
levels and other sectors to a little better. kailey: so do you think we have already seen peak cyclical trade? margie: yes, i dupe you had i think where we will see now is i am looking for more secular growth with less cyclicality than we have ever seen for forever because of the fed action, which is meeting volatility, which they have always caused. tom: this is a really important conversation. the optimism you have got has been rare this week. it has been a really strange week. what it comes down to is you are stretching your x axis out and out and out. pushing against you are economists lowering their gdp view. explain those. you are optimistic, outcome out, out, and they are coming down, down, down. margie: well, that may be true, and ethic it is partly because we all think we live in a cyclical world, but if you do not expect rates on treasuries
to go up, it is very hard to expect a change in the price-earnings ratios. tom: lisa, i think this is incredibly important and speaks to the bracket in 10 year which is not going to a major level. the 10-year is at 1.23. lisa: that is an amazing factoid and true. the fact of the treasury yield has not gone down more in the face of some of the declines we have seen. it is fascinating. you have to wonder what are people seeing that provides a counterpoint to this other downward pressure on global growth, which we have seen decade after decade? that really raises an issue -- is there a sort of potential for treasury yields to rise? will we remain in this goldilocks scenario because the fed, as you said, typically creates the volatility? in this situation, they are not there they are committed to holding policy as easy as possible through the cycle. does that mean we stay in this
range through the cycle? margie: yes. the fed's dual mandate, full employment and inflation around 2%, to me, you cannot reconcile the two, so therefore, how can they begin to tighten one we have 9 million people unemployed? so we will never get to 3% unemployment, so i cannot see them tightening. tom: it is amazing how this destroys the taper worry. kailey: i asked this yesterday, why was anybody surprised? had we not been having this conversation about a taper coming in the next three and half months, that it was all too likely the fed will announce those plans? yet it seemed to take the market by surprise. i am not sure what exactly changed. do you think anything has changed in terms of a taper conversation? margie: no, it ebbs and flows
with market fears. but i think, a, i do not think that that the taper this year, and,b, i do not think that will be bad. in the market could actually respond very positively if they say we will cut down on purchases. i do not think it would be about thing at all for the markets. kailey: would it be bad if the fed ultimately acts too late? margie: in order to act too late, you have to see sustained higher inflation. we have already seen signs inflation is tapering down, and we are not seeing a burst of demand in borrowing from business and consumers, so it is hard to see any change from what we have. looks like the fed might be right in seeing the fed may trend down. tom: you and i have been doing this for years, and one of the
mysteries is the literalism -- elitism of the cash build intact -- do they need to dive into the patel all-dividend pool? margie: in those cases, it it depends on what they expect from their return in their stock versus other stocks. but it is common to see companies awash with cash. they have more cash now than they probably ever have had across the board. i think they are also holding it for a rainy day. that is good for business. they have the cash reserves if we saw an unexpected slowdown. tom: margie patel, thank you, pricing votes between dividend and coupon -- it is a battle right now, to say the least. lisa, i recall the day when one william gross said to me he preferred procter & gamble dividends over a yield, and basically the bloomberg and finance world stopped.
lisa: you are starting to hear this more and more over the years. people owned equities and set of bonds, because you earn more from them, and this has been the story for a long time. i do wonder, at this point, where we are in the economic recovery, how much further we can go. i think a lot of people are saying, if you look at the earnings, it is tremendous. where will it go but to buy back stock and earn dividends? that is one of the most supportive stories this year. tom: i should eyeball that when william gross told me. kailey, what is your observation off the conversation? kailey: it is interesting. i would point everybody to john authers' call them. he talks about that there is no alternative, because yields are so low, it is forcing investors, and it is pointing to growth
expectations have come down, remarkably so, yet equity exposure is really unchanged. what is happening to people's growth expectations, they are staying in stocks. lisa: can i point out one other aspect? there was a story yesterday, did not get a lot of attention -- the largest u.s. public pensions were concentrating all their bets in specific stocks. almost 50% of their stock comprised about more than half the total values of pensions equity for folios, including microsoft, amazon, facebook, alphabet. at what point does a right and the likes of amazon and upcoming a systemic risk? we have to start asking that, as we see the type of concentration increase not only in pensions by hedge funds, because they have been the safe that. i am not saying there is a selloff. i am just looking at the potential risks building. tom: the other thing that did not get a lot of attention was
the -- did the pr firm you're dealing with handle that ok? lisa: yeah, they were. they massaged the lack of conversation. becoming a contrarian questioner becomes a perilous event in an era of continual gains. and i will say, i will continue to try to look around. tom: this is what happens when chicago philosophy shows up at the door. [laughter] we will continue. kailey leinz is in for jon ferro. on the pandemic, we look at that next. stay with us. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. the biggest tax hike on wealthy americans since 1993 is bogged
down in congress. it is almost certain to miss the deadline. the problem is lawmakers do not know how big president biden's spending package will be. plus, lawmakers have biggest that differences on which measures to enact. in afghanistan, more seeds of chaos at kabul airport. the u.s. is rushing to evacuate people, but taliban checkpoints around the airport are making a tougher people to enter. it is raising concerns of citizens will be prevented from leaving. meanwhile, the white house says the u.s. evacuated almost 3000 people yesterday. if federal appeals court has told the government to reinstate the trump era policy requiring asylum-seekers at the southern border to wait in mexico while their cases are being processed. the cases likely to end up at the supreme court. private equity firm cdn are raised its offer for morrison in
the u.k., offering $9.5 billion, giving it an upper hand over the other suitor. directors at morrison are now backing the new offer. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪
already has, if the u.s. has distributed 100 million doses overseas, that is more than every other country combined. still, i think we should all look at ourselves and say we got to do more, much more. tom: andy slavitt, formally with the biden white house as a senior advisor. he is a democrat i would suggest republicans listen to, enough medical prestige to make people lean forward. jon ferro on sabbatical. kailey leinz, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene to get your friday started. andy pekosz now, with johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health -- i should note that it is mr. bloomberg's philanthropy at johns hopkins. i noticed the cdc -- is the
normal operation of measles, mumps, and rubella, 15 months old, then a booster shot at 5-year-old, and it is a no big deal. why is a booster shot of covid a big deal? andy: right now, we are dealing with massive surges of cases. with the measles virus, case numbers are normally quite low, so vaccination rates that give you moderate immunity initially are enough to keep the virus down. you then boost the immunity later to get a protectant -- protection for most of your lifetime. sars-cov-2 is starting to change a little bit. not as much as influenza, but it is showing the ability to change. and we have not gotten anywhere close to the level of immunity in the population to keep case numbers down. so we are still working out how to keep a long-term covid-19
policy, but i think everybody leaves we will be dealing with covid-19 for the long-term. tom: is your perspective -- and i am looking at "the miami herald," where the lads and lovelies in western have their masks on peer the kids have their masks on in florida. that has got to be a good sign, right? andy: absolutely. given the large number of cases, particularly in certain numbers -- areas of the country, you want to rely on more than just vaccination status to protect you. for the short term, this is where masking, combined with vaccination and some level of social distancing will be essential, until we get this latest surge under control. at that point, we can talk about loosening restrictions. but we have to get this under control. lisa: given the dots a variant, and what you're talking about, what will be the new normal?
will we wear masks more, try to socially distance more frequently? andy: i think, once we get a significant portion of the global population immunized against covid-19, we are going to be seeing this virus move into them similar to what we see with the flu. in the winter months, we will see surges, but those will be controlled. right now, sars-cov-2 does not look like it changes as frequently as influenza does, so my guess is we do not need to pay ours particular attention to matching vaccine with circulating strains like we do with influenza. the bottom line is we have the tools to get it under control. we need more vaccinations to get ourselves to a situation where we returned to normal. lisa: based on what we are seeing in the united kingdom, which has seen wave come down after a real big p, and given what we are seeing in terms of the trajectory of
hospitalizations, which have reached record in some areas, how much will it take before we are done and we can return to loosening restrictions? andy: it will be really difficult to predict that timeframe. the other variable coming into play is that in the fall, we'll be going to conditions where virus spread should be a little easier. we will be going back inside, kids will be going back to school. that will change the dynamic of how the infection spreads. i am hopeful, within three or four weeks, we can get this under control and back to some sort of level that will allow us to turn -- return to normalcy, but the fallen going back indoors is the variable that is difficult to predict. kailey: and what the administration has outlined his booster shots will begin to roll out in the fall, but how much does it really solve the problem
if you are giving this are the people who already have gotten there shot yet you still have a wide swath of the population not vaccinated? andy: you hit on the most important problem i find with some of the booster policy being rolled out right now. boosters are going to help us prevent severe disease, no doubt about that, so we should keep an eye on the elderly populations and other susceptibles to -- susceptible to severe covid care about boosters will not get this under control. we have got to get more people immunized, because that is what will control the infection, control the case numbers, limit virus spread. and we have to apply that not only here in the u.s. but globally, to make sure we are getting protection from new variants. tom: andrew pekosz, thank you so much, with johns hopkins limerick school of public health. lisa: can i just weigh in on what he was saying? kailey, i think it was really
important the question you asked, the booster shot versus getting people more -- getting more people vaccinated. lisa: what do you do if you have a stockpile of vaccines and a whole bunch of people who do not want to take them? and we do have the mechanisms of other countries, which has been an obstacle about getting that to other countries. it is a peripheral measure, but this is the issue -- it is a social issue, in terms of people who are willing and unwilling right now to get the shot. kailey, that seems to be the dynamic. kailey: it is, and it raises a question, kind of to your point -- how do we ever break out of the cycle? as long as you will have unvaccinated people -- and i imagine some are on the fence and full fda approval may make a difference. some will just never get the shot. they have decided against. it as long as everybody else is working to protect those people,
how do you put an end to some of these mitigation measures? it seems like it will keep going and going. tom: let's stagger the markets as we set up for another hour of "surveillance." vincent reinhart with us. as kailey leinz mentioned earlier, there is a general list -- i make note of the 2's-10's. that deserve some scrutiny this morning. lisa: especially after financials had one of the biggest overweights, and we know when the yield curve fines, financials usually take that on the chin. tom: there are a lot of other things taking it on the chin. you mentioned amazon earlier. the big number is the euro, 1. 17. a weaker euro, back to where it was 10 or 20 or 30 years ago -- that is impossible.
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>> there is an unprecedented amount of liquidity everywhere. a lot of it seems to be on the sidelines. >> consumers are seeing a stronger economy but are less likely to participate in it. >> it is not so much about the inflation but with the fed is going to do about it. there are definitely signs they need to be tapering it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg on a friday. it has been an interesting week. it has been an interesting three to four fridays. kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro, who deserves a well-deserved sabbatical. he is doing research, lisa.