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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  August 27, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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>> but i would like to see out of jackson hole is for the central bankers to say this is an emergency policy response. >> a sense of their long-term views on employment i think it's our ghibli the most important thing to focus on -- is arguably the most important thing to focus on. >> i thought is that fed tapering is not going to start at this meeting. >> powell is going to try not to make big waves. >> the earlier the fed tapers and the more aggressive they are in tapering, 10 year probably will not rise that much. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.
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lisa: it is here. it is fed day. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. jon ferro very much off. taylor riggs very much in. markets are basically meandering. this economy has been so difficult. can we actually learn anything from the chair powell today? tom: what we are going to learn as they are going to extend forward. they are beyond data dependent, and i'm sorry, the most important thing on august 27 is the jobs report. lisa: what data are they looking at? is it all jobs? tom: this is a loaded question. there's the hard data, the soft data, but certainly the labor dynamics of this nation, they've got to be more front and center than they have ever been before. lisa: the one thing people say
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that they are watching very closely is the stock market. should the stock market disrupted in any material way, any hiccup will make them reverse any potential tapering or tightening in any capacity. is that built into markets at this point, the people who you're speaking to? taylor: you are certainly not seeing it right now. i would argue that stephen stanley nailed it at the bottom of the last hour, really hinting at some things you and i have been talking a lot about. what is $100 billion doing? what is the financial risk at this point? it may be some of the equity markets. i harken back to the bank of korea saying the risks are outweighing, and that is why they are raising rates. lisa: i'm glad you mentioned the bank of korea. the idea that they are actually concerned about financial conditions. just want to bring this from raphael bostic, talking about not expect in the taper to upset
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markets in any way, and then said basically trying to divorce tapering from interest rate hikes, saying they are two distinct things. this is what people are looking for. can the effectively get this message into markets? tom: it is an international event. i really want to underscore that kansas city does every thing they can to bring in people from around the world, and you may not see that in 2021, but we can't forget that it is an international event. let me run through the markets quickly here. time is precious in the 8:00 hour. real yield gives me no information. steepening yield curve a little bit, 100 -- 110 basis points. we will leave it there this morning. we need a broader, larger view.
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at state street, they are looking at institutional money. the traders will trade, but you guys have to worry about long-term duration. do you reallocate off this fed, or is it steady as you go? >> i think it is steady as you go. jay powell's objective is going to be trying to leave taper on the table, but upset the market as little as possible. markets were actually unchanged today. we still got the taper expectation for later this year. i think that is what we are looking at. it is going about the meeting september 22. i think the risk from him. lisa: can you build up the idea of how effective the problem has
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been, and could potentially be in doing this? lee: you have to about qe as an emergency measure. it is a liquidity measure. qe first came out when markets collapsed and you couldn't find a clearing price, and they stepped in as a buyer of last resort. that is very different from interest rate hikes. interest rate hikes are defined to slow an economy that they think is getting ahead of itself. it is very different tools. in theory, they are doing the same job as monetary policy accommodation. that is the main time to hit the gas. the market being the market, they are seeing this as the continuum. but really, we should try and get away from that. i think that might be one of powell's objectives today.
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maybe over coming months, to separate the two things out. that next sort of messaging operation by the fed. taylor: we spoke to anastasia, roadside the top of the last hour, saying qe is here to help solve a demand problem. we don't have a demand problem. we might have a supply problem. why is qe being used, and is it effective? lee: it was needed when it was started last year. we had liquidy problems in the market and we didn't have buyers. the problem then becomes it becomes a crutch for the market. the objective is do they want to get out of qe now? of course they do. but they went to get out without upsetting the market. they do not want to taper tantrum like they had in 2013, so they signal, signal, and they
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need to get out without upsetting the market. does it work in terms of stimulating the economy? not now. but if you upset the market, we see a big decline in equities, that could hurt consumer sentiment that is already fragile. look at the michigan report we had a few weeks ago. we can see the consumer is still fragile. if you start reading headlines about the end of qe, that has a big impact on sentiment. that is what they want to avoid. lisa: if the fed starts to taper in the near future, do you expect the dollar to get additional wind and strengthen even further to potentially disrupt what we have seen in terms of international progress? lee: i don't, so long as the taper comes alongside no sort of
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increased economic pessimism. one of the big reasons we saw over the last few weeks with dollar strength was this idea that the fed was going to taper regardless of lowering growth expectations. we started to see downgrades of graphics petitions this year, but there is this fear the fed was on this sort of autopilot half of those comments last friday reassured, and that is why this week, we have generally seen the dollar go down and stocks go up. so as long as we get that flexible message from powell today, which i think he's got one objective for me, which is to keep taper on the table, but the let the net market know we are flexible. as long as he gets that across so we are doing it into a period of strength, that shouldn't mean the dollar strength as soon as they taper into weakness in the market starts to worry and you get the risk off buying come of the safe haven buying, that is what we saw over the last month or so. taylor: jim caron over at morgan
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stanley says fair value on the 10 year in this case is 1.70%. do you agree, and what is the past to 1.70%? lee: i think that is high. i thing we have to have a discussion at some point about the mutual rate. the fed has it at 2.5 percent. that is way too high. if we look at where are we in terms of the labor market, in terms of demographics, where are we in terms of productivity, i would argue probably fair value is a little bit lower. not massively so, but i would probably put it 1.5% rather than 1.7%. we drift up to it in the next 12 months or so, as qe gradually gathers momentum. no dramatic big rise for me. tom: thank you so much. wonderful way to start this hour. lisa ridge with state street, head of -- leaf average -- lee ferridge with state street,
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their global macro advisor. you get really lucky, and this is where you make your luck. we are like, ok, g to go banana is going to show up. she's going to have a paper. i'm sorry, it is the paper of this symposium. lisa: the idea of trying to link the interconnectedness of monetary and fiscal policy at a time of both fronts being blasted at an economy, to me, how do you get your arms around an economy that was stopped and then restarted, with economists getting it wrong again and again? tom: i am going to read vice-chairman blinder in princeton, where she took her -- this is the conundrum of the era. how do we get where we are linking fiscal with monetary? taylor: some would argue that we didn't get the fiscal in the
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last recession. that was the issue coming out of 2008, 2000 nine. some are now linking that they liked the fact that there is a fiscal, there is monetary policy, though there are concerns on both sides about what the fiscal really looks like. tom: can you see you and me at the pioneer grill before the chairman speaks, at the 1950's diner, and i am having the swiss logger grilled breakfast, with my paper open reading it? lisa: michael mckee noted that it is 40 degrees right now in jackson hole. you would be freezing out there, drinking your chai latte. i would be drinking my espresso. tom: no, i'm thinking maybe a primo beer from hawaii. maybe a coors special. she'd ago but -- get a go banana -- gita gopinath, we do that next. good morning. ♪
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ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden telling terrorists the u.s. will hunt them down. the president spoke after bombings outside the kabul airport to at least 13 americans of his numbers and dozens of others. the islamic state has claimed response ability for the attack. a divided u.s. supreme court has lifted the biden administration's moratorium on evictions. that ends protections for millions of people who fell behind on the rent during the pandemic. justices said landlords are suffering irreparable harm. they also said the cdc lacks the authority to impose the eviction moratorium. a powerful hurricane is excited in the coming days, already hitting in the gulf of mexico. companies are evacuating some of their facilities there. it is forecast to strike cuba today. it is expected to reach hurricane strength over the gulf tomorrow. china is reportedly taking steps that could thwart the ambitions
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of tech firms that want to list abroad. dow jones reports the government plans to ban companies with large months of sensitive consumer data from going public in the u.s. the move could give beijing more control over the complex structure companies use to sidestep restrictions on foreign investment. apple critics say the company has too much power. apple would pay $100 million to developers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> most likely, this is not the
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place where they are going to float a taper more aggressively, simple because of the history. tom: drew matus of metlife on the ballet of jackson hole and what we can expect two hours. michael mckee with a scaler cast -- a stellar cast before and after the speech. right now, -- right now, gita gopinath of the imf with us. thank you so much for joining us this morning. before we get to the affairs of jackson hole, i am required to address a bit outside your remit at the international monetary fund, and that is what all are watching, which is how the imf will adapt and adjust to afghanistan and the taliban. this has to do with special drawing rights.
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explain to our audience the choice set that the managing director and all of you at the imf have with these unusual events in afghanistan. gita: it is a pleasure to be on your show. which countries can actually use the sdr's depends on whether the government of that country is being recognized by the membership of the imf, and at this point, with the recent developments we have seen, which are heartbreaking, there is no recognition, so at this point, they will not be available to be used. -- to be used by afghanistan. tom: as we look at the most interesting event at jackson hole, it is more interesting then what the chairman is going
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to say. we live at a time where we have never seen linkages of fiscal and monetary policy. we are literally doing mmt. within your panel, will your people discuss modern monetary theory? are we doing mmt in 2022? gita: no, i don't believe we are doing mmt. it is a decade before the covid crisis was on, and then covid struck, and fiscal policy came to town in a big way. so we have seen interactions of the kind we have never seen before. but it was necessary. it was needed for the kind of challenges the world economy was facing, and it helped prevent a much deeper recession. our estimate is the recession would have been three times worse last year had it not been
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for monetary policy support. it is very clear why this is good policy because ultimately, central-bank decision-making has to be controlled by central banks. priority central-bank goals and central-bank independence has served countries very well, and it makes sense to do quantitative easing and asset purchases as long as you're doing it independently. this is not about being pressured by governments and monetary financing. that is what the difference is. lisa: this is such a delicate dance. how do you avoid politicizing at a time when low interest rates are helping continue, really what is allowing the fiscal impulse we see in washington, d.c.? how fraught does this become with inequality as a focus for the federal reserve, for central banks at a time when that really is the purview of fiscal policy and not monetary policy?
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gita: there are some things indeed that fiscal policy is just much better placed to address. inequality is a great example of that. when we look at which countries are able to do large-scale asset purchases, it is countries that have built up very credible central banks with good policymaking. we have to keep that in mind. the exception doesn't make the rule. you have to maintain your reputation for keeping your eye on inflation and inflation expectations. if you do that, when you are hit by a crisis, you can get exceptional measures. we are in a time of low interest rates, and i suspect that will be the case going forward, so this is a challenge that both fiscal and monetary policy has to deal with, and i would bring in what is happening with financial markets. what we are seeing is very high
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valuations and complacency and financial markets. there is very little room for surprises at this time. this is going to be the challenge of what we will see, which is how you communicate which is very clear, but when you move. lisa: there's also the flipside of this. easy monetary conditions can plug the hole and take the pressure off of fiscal policy makers that are necessary to bridge the issues in society that chair powell is becoming aware of. when the fed creates this calm, creates this stasis in markets that can make people, at least in washington, d.c., feel like there's as much of a problem. gita: that was exactly the problem before this crisis. everything was left to monetary policy, and policy wasn't doing anything. this time around, we have seen recognition that monetary policy cannot do it all, and one of the
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messages is to make sure this continues and this is not a one-off intervention that happens with fiscal policy, that this is durable and this continues because monetary policy cannot solve the type of problems you are talking about. tom: one last question. i am going to get you in trouble here. my apologies upfront. we had a wonderful set of federal reserve chairman's, including a guy named bernanke. we've had derrida on monetary theory and others. talk to me about the reappointment of a non-phd economist as chairman of the fed. do you care that jerome powell isn't a phd economist? gita: i think chair powell has been doing a great job in very difficult times, and i don't care whether he has a phd or not. i think it is important to get
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the right inputs from all kinds of people with all kind of backgrounds, and he's been reacting very well. tom: thank you so much for joining us today. as i said earlier, it is a panel. i wish they had a paper, but it is just a panel at jackson hole. lisa: the issue of political and penance for the federal reserve a really important one. at the same time, as you mentioned, the mmt aspect here is key. how much are they facilitating fiscal policy in a deliberate way? tom: she did not want to talk about stephanie kelton's work, did she? that was a rude question, i guess. lisa: those are the best. it is a real question, though. tom: one day he was so angry, he
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came out of the doors and bowled over michael mckee. he just leveled michael mckee in front of the bear at the lodge at jackson hole. the president of the atlanta fed, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: bloomberg surveillance, jon ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. ferro out, riggs in. thank you taylor riggs for joining us. a seattle slew of economic data. important data. i do not know which number is important. michael mcgee will tell us. -- michael mckee will tell us. michael: looking at income and spending numbers. personal income up 1.1% in july. that is a significant jump up from the prior month of june where we saw .1% rise. spending up .3%. that is a drop down from the 1% we had in june and the 4% anticipated. it appears people may have cut
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back on spending. is that covid impact? we do not know at this point. the numbers that matter to the fed and the markets today, the pce deflator. the fed follows the pce as their personal inflation indicator. month over month rise .4%. the core up on a .3% basis. the are over your number at 4.2%, up from 4% last month -- the year-over-year number at 4.2%. the core at 3.6% is up .1% as well. it looks like we are not out of the inflation woods. if you thought we would start to see inflation fade away. tom: perfectly timed. the fed and their press conference avoiding talking to michael mckee. the president will taught out the dallas trimmed, the atlanta data, and the cleveland
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inflation data. are we going to see that today? away from the taper stuff will he say the inflation i see is not what we see on the bloomberg terminal screen right now? michael: they will say they think what has happened in inflation is supply chain problems. the restart of the economy and it should fade. it has gone faster than they thought and may last longer than they thought but it does seem -- there does not seem to be anything off the top of it does just he would be wrong. lisa: i take issue with the idea it will fade. we count this as fading if it fades in two years or three years? some of the supply chain disruptions will be ongoing. to give you a sense of the market reaction there is not much of one considering the fact this edifies the view people are spending less in the face of the increased delta variant. services are getting a hit which could have ramifications for
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some of these upcoming numbers. do you think this is something the fed will be watching? inflation is picking up but it is because of things beyond control. when it comes to spending, you are starting to see the stagflation like behavior within slowing down. michael: the fed cannot do anything about the supply problem. their job is to improve aggregate demand with low interest rates. if they start to taper it will not affect the pricing level of things at this point. the only issue will be do they start having a psychological effect on people who are afraid of inflation and therefore asking for more money and trying to get in front of a wage price spiral. not that we have one, but that is the fear of everyone old enough to have been around in the 1970's. taylor: there seems to be a disconnect between what the economic models and the textbooks are telling us that inflation is transitory, it will
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not increase at the same rate. there are people on the ground. vertically when you hear from senators, which means their constituents are telling them inflation is hurting me and hurting consumer sentiment as you get the university of michigan data at 10:00. where is that disconnect and does the disconnect get resolved? michael: there are a couple of different places. the average person knows what they are paying for things in the basket put together by the labor department for the consumer price index and the bureau of economic analysis for pce does not always reflect people's personal's experience. the other is why we develop the core rate. the biggest things people pay more money for our gasoline and food, and they're always noticing food. when those go up, and we have seen food prices rise for reasons that have nothing to do with covid or supply chain problems, then people start to get worried about inflation.
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the fed has a pr problem with that. could this last for months and months? maybe. it depends on the progress of the disease, which i suspect his line you will hear from jay powell. tom: very good. michael mckee with us wearing many hats. we will rapidly digressed to a gentleman from new jersey, raphael bostic. what an interesting path out of harvard and stanford. a different fed president. michael: and now president of the atlanta federal reserve. raphael bostic. we welcome you to surveillance. you are in atlanta where will be a lot warmer. this morning it was 37 degrees on the back lawn of the jackson lake lodge. in some ways we are better off. it is not as beautiful but in some ways we are better off. let me ask you about the numbers we just got. 4.2% on the year-over-year headline pce, 4.6% for the core,
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is that out of line with what you are anticipating and as that may be put more pressure on you to decide you would like to see a sooner taper? pres. bostic: first of all i am glad we are not sitting out in 30 degree weather. that makes for a much less comfortable interview. for the numbers that came out today, i have been in the studio so i've not had a chance to look at the numbers more deeply. i would say this sort of number is not a huge the prize for me. -- is not a huge surprise for me. we know there of been price pressures and those have continued. i heard you talking before about the notion of transitory. when i talked to businesses, what they have told me is this is episodic. they believe this is driven by the pandemic circumstance. what has also become clear is this episode will last longer than people expected. we will figure out how to incorporate that into our
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modeling. for me, what i am seeing is consistent with the outlook i had before. i am still comfortable we are on a good trajectory with the economy and we should still see fairly robust growth. michael: let me put you on the other side effect big table at the fed. those who might argue for a delay. is there an argument? what seems to be happening is a problem on the supply side and you guys adjust the demand-side. pres. bostic: it is certainly true there are surprised -- there are supply-side challenges. we've all heard many stories about supply chain issues and trying to get products to meet the robust demand. i'm definitely worried about that and thinking about that. what i would also say is what we have seen come in businesses consistently tell me they are having record volumes. the demand is strong. i do not think that pushes in a
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different direction than the types of things we are thinking about in terms of removing some of the accommodation. i think the economy is performing extremely strong in any weakness is just pulling us off a very high numbers initially. michael: there seems to be a feeling on wall street that if you end tapering, particularly if you do it quickly, that will remove support from the equity markets. the fed has been contributing to the rise we have seen in the indexes and maybe to inflation with qe purchases. how much do you worry about financial market stability with this switch in policy coming up? pres. bostic: i always worry about financial stability. it is important we make sure our financial system remain strong and resilient so it can provide the services needed for our economy. what i do think in terms of our policy is we are aimed at two other things. we are looking at maximum employment and stable prices.
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i think we are doing pretty well , making good progress in both, which suggests we should be trying to get our policies back into a more normal situation. we have been at a very extreme level of accommodation and i think the strain in the economy calls for us to pull back, let the economy stand on its own. we have a fair amount of energy and momentum. i think we can do our tapering faster than we have in previous episodes because of that momentum. my expectations is the economy will continue to operate in a strong way. michael: we were talking earlier about whether the inflation impulse we are seeing will last longer than you anticipated. is the idea of getting the taper underway, and get it done fairly quickly so that you have some freedom to be able to address interest rates if you need to? pres. bostic: certainly i think it is important we move one tool
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and one lever at a time. it is much more complicated to communicate if we are moving interest rates and doing things on asset purchases at the same time. getting the asset purchases done will be an important thing in terms of the sequencing of our policy. i do think about them in very different ways. i think about a lot of the asset purchase and put us coming out of the deep recession triggered through the pandemic. as the economy has moved further and further away from those lows, i think the need for this purchases starts to decline. at that point i think we should move on to other things. once that has done, what i will do is look at the data and have the data informed me as to how i should be thinking about when we should do a liftoff of interest rates. right now i have that projected as the end of 2022. i always say a lot will happen
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between now and then and that will inform the actual decision we make in terms of when we start to move interest rates. michael: when you talk to ceos in your district or even the mom-and-pop stores in your district, what are they telling you about how long they think this inflation will last? pres. bostic: they do not talk about it in terms of inflation. they talk about it in their ability to meet product demand. business leaders i talked to tell me supply chain challenges are significant. what they thought were going to be short-term challenges are starting to look like they will last a bit longer come into 2022. that has implications for what will happen in terms of prices. i think it is important for everyone to keep this in mind. this is all part of an episode. i moved away from transitory and try to talk about this as an
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episodic period of inflation. for me, with a long episode, the thing i will be most concerned about is whether people start to take the length of the episode. they need to start doing things differently. if that is true, a lot of the relationships we have seen historically may not hold any longer and we may think about our policies differently. a lot of the surveys will be doing on inflation expectations will be the things that will inform what makes the best sense for policy moving forward. lisa: the theme of this conference is macro economic policy in an iv economy. -- in an uneven economy. do you think the monthly bond purchases helps even out the unequal recovery or do think it exacerbates some of the inequalities given the fact that lower rates and better financial conditions tend to help wealthier individuals more because of their assets?
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pres. bostic: the goal is to make sure the economy stays robust so people can get employed. if you do not have a job you will have a higher level of precariousness and that precariousness could trigger or translate into significant hardships. what i'm trying to weigh is the potential for hardships that many at the lower end of the wealth distribution could face without a strong economy versus some of the benefits that will accrue to those at the top because we have a stronger economy. for me, the precariousness side is of more concern in part because of the how the pandemic has played out. we know in this pandemic jobs at the lower end of the wage distribution have been hit much harder. there is an imperative we make sure our policies are in position so they can come back
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more quickly. that is starting to happen now, and for me i find it heartening that a lot of those gaps in terms of job losses and categories are starting to narrow. that gives me some comfort that the policies have been effective. tom: michael mckee, one if you drop in for one final question? michael: let me point out the good president from atlanta is one of the voting members of the open market committee this year. what you say matters. i am wondering, i am listening to what you're saying and thinking of how the print headlines will say bostic joins hawks. i wonder if this is hawkish or is it is just time? will anyone notice in terms of market interest rates if you start cutting back on qe purchases? pres. bostic: i think the markets will not respond strongly to this. the economy is in a very strong
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way, a strong position. i think the asset purchases at this point have been something of an insurance policy. i think we do not need that insurance nearly as much as we have been previous episodes. because of that i think the markets will absorb this smoothly and we will see the economy continue to roll off. tom: rafael bostic, you more than anyone i know has thought harder and harder about our nation social policy, our fabric. you are cb is -- your cv is extraordinary. you talk years ago about trying to get the doors wider in america, having to do with housing and the black experience in america. where are we right now? dinner institutions and this fit get the doors open -- can our institutions and this fed get
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the doors open wider? pres. bostic: we will try. the gaps in home owning are as large as they have ever been. that means there is a challenge we face in terms of families of african-american and latino background getting assets that allow them to accrue wealth. for the fed, our monetary policy and the policy framework we announced last year is designed to make sure the employment market, the labor markets work better for all. we are also advancing a number of other things. we are convening to highlight a number of the barriers. we are working for solutions in communities chart -- in communities to try to change how the economy works for people and make sure our institutions are well positioned to succeed. i think there is progress that could be made and i will work hard with my colleagues to push to make that happen. tom: dr. bostic, thank you for
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joining us today. one year ago tomorrow washington and a complete uproar over race. we forget so quickly that is where we were one year ago today. michael: the fed has adopted that as a major issue for themselves. they have reset their policy to take account of broad and diverse inclusion in the labor market. tom: do you think it is for real? charles evans darted this in chicago and this is a profound shift for our monetary policy. michael: it is. the question is how they measure it. they will do what they can. monetary policy a very blunt tool. tom: i'm sorry i did not wear my beige suit. you and i would've looked great in jackson hole. michael: i was waiting for your cowboy hat and bolo tie. tom: the bolo tie was already selected. the albuquerque look. lisa, what you have in the next hour? lisa: we all have because
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michael mckee is continuing our jackson hole coverage. he will be speaking with patrick harker, robert kaplan, and jim bullard. i wonder this dovetail. we have a strong economy at the same time these asset purchases are still supporting some of the progress seems to be at increasing dissidents. i wonder how that is reconciled in these conversations? tom: a really interesting group. the geography of the nation as we consider chairman powell. dow futures up 80. it is in august feel to the market. awaiting the chairman's comments. i was thrilled when the staff told me dambisa moyo can darken the door. she is a first-rate academic and a wonderful cross-section of thinking globally and thinking culturally about our institutions. dambisa moyo with so much
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experience with corporate boards nationwide and worldwide. more than anything, her books thinking about the larger picture. thank you so much for joining. his chairman powell the central banker to the world? dambisa: i am happy to be back. that is a wonderful question. in 2013i tended jackson hole and that was the debate. we understand the explicit mandate for the fed leads into the united states, but as a reserve currency and given the importance of the united states at this moment, there is a very clear argument that we cannot think about an uneven economy just because of the united states. this is a point i will be raising today. tom: when you participate in these meetings it will here talk
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about the linkage of fiscal and monetary policy. i will get you in trouble. is this the first jackson hole where we are practicing mmt? dambisa: well, it will be interesting to watch. there are a lot of skeptics in the room. it would be interesting to hear people will stand up and defend mmt. if you look at the agenda come it feels it is a quite focused, quite curated towards questions around inflation, around growth, equitable growth, and everyone will be buzzing around regarding the trade-off between tapering in the interest rates. that will bring in the questions around the real economy versus the financial economy. taylor: there is a disconnect when you take a look at the real impact and the real economy from higher inflation and the way in
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which it has started to damper consumer sentiment. how you say -- how do you see the fixing of the disconnect between what the economic textbooks are telling us versus what real people on the ground are saying? dambisa: to my mind, there is no doubt about it. we heard a moment ago inflation is here. we heard movement in raw materials and logistics. we heard questions about how that will translate into wages. to use old terminology, transitory or permanent. in terms of what tools the fed will decide is most important if we are concerned about inflation , i think we will lean into more of a rates discussion. that will lead into the discussion of how important it will be to support and manage the real economy. a lot of the conversation regarding taper hits home for
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financial markets. financial markets, people in the insurance companies, pension funds love to think about the taper being more important, but for the real economy, for questions around growth as we go into a week 2022, focused on rates. taylor: when you see that growth , a lot of criticism after 2008 is there was not enough fiscal support. this time around, do you see a proper handoff between monetary having to do all of the work versus fiscal picking up some of the slack? dambisa: it feels that way. we have a massive infrastructure package. it is hard to argue there is nothing going on on the fiscal side. for me the greater concern is the bifurcation between developing markets. there is a real question to be asked about whether or not the
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united states and european countries that have enjoyed support from stimulus they have had from a quantitative easing, but also the packages on the fiscal side can support economic success when the less of the world is at a 1% vaccination rate and a real prospect for low growth in 2022. tom: now tom keene enters the dambisa moyo timeout chair. you massive credit with global corporate politics and boards. give us your belief on where esg is heading? is it really entrenched? or is it the fat of the moment? -- or is it the fad of the moment? dambisa: is entrenched. that does not mean there is a lot of work to do. i have seen it evolve as something that was an
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afterthought into we will build foundations where companies will provide support to employees and pass over for organizations to do something in a separate way to it being fully integrated into how we do business. we are in the business of allocating capital. it goes to the companies that will outperform in terms of competing against peers but also against the market. we have to allocate capital. our ability to allocate capital within emi is absolutely going to be a differentiating factor for companies. tom: dambisa moyo, a guest of jackson hole. she will be part of these discussions as we drive forward the conversation. i want to tell folks to stay with us on radio and television. michael mckee with james bullard of st. louis will be something. taylor: it will be.
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the main event with jay powell. really interesting conversations all morning, the likes of which started with jim caron same 1.70% on the 10 year appears to be fair value. ending with dambisa moyo saying if you're worried about inflation do not have the taper conversation, have a rate hike conversation. tom: mr. harker philadelphia, interesting regional district in philadelphia, may be microcosm of manufacturing and small business. an eclectic philadelphia fed with important economic data. robert kaplan of texas carrying on the texas tradition. absolutely unique fed led by and founded by robert mcteer. robert kaplan saying let's get going and let private enterprise heal this nation. bullard of the regime change. there has been a few. i think michael mckee will ask about the regime change.
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stay with us on radio and television. experts on the fed, presidents on the fed, and then the chairman at 10:00. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪
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lisa: 30 minutes until the opening bell. a constructive town ahead of jay
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powell speech at 10:00 a.m. yields a little bit lower as the session grows older. dollar weakness against some of the peers. euro at 1.1757. s&p futures up. you're getting a lift effort -- you're getting a lift after its best week since october -- euro getting a lift after its best week since october. this is bloomberg. >> what i like to see a central bankers to say this is an emergency policy response. >> long-term views on employment, this is obvious are the most important thing to focus on. >> my own thinking is tapering will not start in this meeting. >> powell will try not to make big waves. >> the earlier the fed tapers and the more aggressive they are in tapering, 10 year treasury yields that much. >>


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