tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg September 6, 2021 2:00am-4:00am EDT
anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards in london. mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through all the market action this hour. cash trade is less than one hour away. here are your top headlines. disappointing jobs numbers. the smallest increase in seven months as to uncertainty over the taper timeline. aluminum surge.
prices hit a decade high as a coup in guinea fuels concerns over the supply of key raw materials. we are at the munich autoshow area do not miss our conversation with the ceo's plus many more. a lot to talk about on the auto sector and in commodities. welcome to the european market open. 7:00 here in london. mark is with us in singapore. good morning to you this monday. one other markets saying to you? mark: good morning -- what are the markets saying to you? mark: good morning. big macro takeaways. we are not even really talking that much about the jobs data on friday out of the u.s., which was a big disappointment. the reaction was quite bland and we are not really focused on today. japanese stocks are still rising on that high from friday and chinese stocks are also doing well. as you mentioned, we have a couple of commodities stories.
oil is softer because saudi arabia cut their prices. aluminum is bid as well. anna: a lot to talk about on both of those fronts. breaking data for us to deal with this morning. 3.4% month on month. the estimate was for a drop of 0.7% so that looks to be much higher than anticipated. the year on year figure, they are suggesting a number higher than expected. july factory orders rise by -- so that looks fairly bullish. many economists tell me not to make too much fuss out of one month but we will see where that takes us in the context of some of the data maybe more on the services side. and the euro's rally of late. we have not moved much since getting that get out. we are one hour away from the start of cash equity trading in europe so let's get to the futures picture. the united ways is closed to --
the united states is closed today. it is a little bit more imminent. up by .2% or .3% so make of that what you will. in terms of the raid across from the asia session, we did not take much read across on friday. u.s. futures are closed -- sorry, u.s. cash markets will be closed but futures are trading. we were flat to mixed in the u.s. trading session on today and we saw a record on the nasdaq. the european markets were a little lackluster, a little less when, so perhaps we look to make up a little lost ground. it is labor day. asian markets in fine form as a result of day two on the japan story. it is not all about japan. let's have a look at the gmm. what does that tell us about the drivers of that asian session? mark: it is very mixed pictures
overall. one big macro take away that you can see from the gmm screen. japan and chinese stocks leading the way and they are two of the most important indexes in the region so that means we have a slight tinge of positivity feeding through to slightly higher bond yields but it nothing to get too excited about. there's generally a mixed picture in commodities and fx and it is a quiet session because the u.s. holiday, even though there are these individual and micro-stories we are interested in. anna: let's get to some of those stories, linger on some of those. it's day two on the japan story. the prime minister deciding that he will not stand again, and that means two days of rallies in japanese stocks. it's about assumptions market is making about whether we further fiscal stimulus from here. mark: now that he announced he will not be running, it is a chance that every other
candidate has to step up their game in terms of being more populist. they are getting harassed by journalists about what their plans are so everyone is getting excited about their fiscal stimulus. i'm surprised we have such follow-through on this story today. it's really been quite enthusiastic given there's not much enthusiasm elsewhere in market. i'm not sure it can keep on sustaining but it is a reason to say that no one will be negative on japanese stocks until after this election area there will be some kind of sugar rush coming post suga but it's how much of a package we might get and the conversation will continue to evolve in the next couple of weeks. anna: a lot of people talking about a global move towards fiscal stimulus as a result of medical change and that is something we can the cup as we go through the next couple of hours. it's not just in japan. it's germany and canada and other places as well. let me ask you about what is going on in commodities markets. aluminum is to the top of that
rain came, the top of the commodities strip and we already saw aluminum prices strong before we saw political events in west africa, meaning tension pushing prices higher overnight. that is the overnight driver, isn't it? mark: this is definitely the latest news story. aluminum was already at 10 year highs going into this weekend and now we have a new micro story, hitting a market which is particularly vulnerable to the fresh bullish news. any excuse to buy aluminum. the backdrop longer-term picture is very constructive. we are getting infrastructure spendings around the world and getting people moving towards a greener world and that tends to support aluminum and copper prices at the expense of some fossil fuels so this is a story which in longer-term will run around. the short-term story can get a mention. that is what we will visit later on in the program. anna: we have the ecb meeting
this week and then focus on the recovery of the euro zone from the pandemic through the delta variant and some of the data we broke this morning looking pretty good just out of germany and in the month of july. that is the factory orders picture. the big picture we have been dealing with has been around inflation in the euro zone and around just how much confidence there should be that that inflation number tells us something about the underlying economic strength and whether the ecb should push back against it. the u.s. is closed and this will be a thing we need to watch later on in the week. mark: yes, i actually think the ecb is the most exciting it has been in a long time. the bar is pretty low. most ecb meanings are not very exciting. inflation figures are high. producer price inflation was the highest going back to 1982 plus 12.1% year on year. we have core inflation at the highest since 2012.
europe has a major inflation issue and we kind of ignored the issue because the whole debate about inflation this year is will it be transitory or not? the driver is seen as well it feature to wage inflation? we have been very focused on the u.s. because european labor markets are different and there has not and that flexibility, that massive removal from the labor force to move back in. there is the general view that the inflation trend is more of a u.s. problem, not a european one, but may be a european one as well. this is the week will be -- we will be talking about a given that several policymakers have been hawkish lee saying that we can remove this kind of emergency stimulus that they are -- hawkishly saying that this is the emergency stimulus that they are looking at. anna: different dynamics, different labor market behind it, different structures to the economy.
mark is with us for the markets live team and if you want to get further into it from the markets live team, mliv is the function to use on your bloomberg terminal. let me get to breaking through from goldman asked. this is in specific reference to the leader investment group providing solutions to alternative asset management arm. that is how goldman sachs ascribes it and goldman sachs says it's pleased to announce it is considering an initial public offering of this is news. goldman's peter thiel partners expect to float on the london stock exchange. coming up, we are at the munich auto show. do not miss our conversations with the ceo's of vw and bmw. nigeria's state oil giant is considering an ipo after posting its first profit ever. we will speak exclusively to the managing director. that is after 7:30 a.m. london time. up next, big miss. the highly anticipated u.s. jobs report fell short of
>> this was a materially lower net worth. >> definitely, this has some delta variant on it. >> this is the long game coming out of a worldwide pandemic. >> one huge red flag for me in this report. >> hospitality number. >> almost zero gain this month in that area. >> some bounceback. >> this is temporary. >> tapering is very much on the table. >> the market is pushing back
any sort of taper announced in. >> they don't need to rush into it. the most important thing is the emphasis that tapering is not tightening. mark: just -- anna: just some of the voices reacting on bloomberg tv after a big miss. 235,000 payrolls were added in the month. 500,000 short of the estimate. we are joined by the head of global microstrategy at natixis investment managers. it seems that this was a big miss and it will delay the fed's taper to some degree on some level. do you go along with that? what changes has this made to your tapering view? >> it does not change it so much in the sense that we were thinking probably an announcement in november, starting in december, maybe january, but december was more
likely. i'm not sure the fed actually wanted to start tapering in september this soon. there's also a way that this will allow them to operate the new thing coming out from the tapering conversation. we saw jerome powell really emphasize that tapering does not mean rate hikes are coming. there's going to be a lot of time so this may be biased the fed another month or two where the market now is not expecting an announcement in september. i think they will preannounced september, saying if names can you, it will come. they will get a couple more payroll numbers for september and october and november will see an announcement. it is not surprising. leisure and hospitality was not fantastic. it was outright bad because of the delta variant. in a lot of areas, it is looking like the delta variant is peaking so jobs growth should
resume into the end of the year. mark: good morning. for most of this year, seems like the bogeyman for markets is when they will finally get some hawkish moves from the fed. and then suddenly over the last month, we have been more concerned about the growth picture. we passed peak growth. does this jobs number confirm the idea that the threat to equity markets is more from lack of growth and not some potential hawkish move for the fed? how do you weigh up those threats? esty: that's one of the areas we are very focused on. the view is that tapering test not matter that much for market. it priced in. it is expected. at some point, we thought they might be slightly earlier or may be more aggressive tapering but that has been pushed back again with that is supporting payrolls. interest rate hikes matter. tapering, not so much, especially when you have the forward guidance we have been having from the it over the last few months.
the question on growth, we have been more optimistic. there is a discussion of peak everything and we know we are past the peak in the rebound in growth and we have known that for some time. we don't think the delta variant is going to derail the recovery entirely. it probably delays it which means you get maybe not quite as high of a bump earlier but it can last a little bit longer and that means that 2022 growth should be better as we move past some of these cycles. so yes, a bit more of a concern for markets and if this slowdown continues over a number of months, that will not be fantastic. it is delaying growth and we are optimistic growth will stay above trend for many quarters ahead of us. anna: where does that leave you? that is the growth side of things. some people talking about that inflation. you don't what the growth concerns. what about the wages element?
how much does that tell us about how sticky inflation is at this time? esty: there are a couple of different components to inflation and that is i think what we are going to look at. the fed really does not seem to be in a hurry to hike so even if we get slightly more persistent wage growth, i'm not sure that changes the rate hike picture in any case but inflation is going to be higher than expected for longer than expected and some of lingering delta variant and supply chain concerns because of the zero covid policy across a lot of asia that is not helping. when you look at the wage numbers, the lower wage segments where jobs were a lot tougher to come by in august did not move and then the higher wage earners continued to move up a little more because that is where you saw some hiring so it is skewing this wage conversation a little bit just because these higher
wage sectors are doing better at the moment from a hiring perspective so it is something we have to keep an eye on but i don't think we will see in a kind of spiraling in wages or in inflation. we know it will stay higher for longer but we don't think that impacts the fed picture so stagflation, i don't think so. i already do not believe that part. inflation is a little higher for longer that should come down as well. anna: thank you very much. stay with us. esty dwek from natixis stays with us. we will get more details on her inflation thoughts in just a moment. let's get a bloomberg first word news update with laura wright. laura: boris johnson will continue his handling -- defend his handling later today. he is expected to reiterate using every economic, political, and diplomatic leverage to help the afghan people. the statement comes amid criticism of the government watch handling of the taliban
takeover. aluminum has hit a 10 year high after a unit of guinea's military seized power and suspended the cost and. the west african nation is a key source of what is used to make aluminum. he urged the armed forces to back him. he accused him of mismanagement and corruption. u.k.'s biggest business lobby criticized the government over labor shortages, warning they could last as long as two years. the cbi director general said a perfect storm of exit cutting the supply of workers from the e.u. and the pandemic have left many set errors without the staff they need. the cbi once targeted immigration to fill job gaps. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark, anna. anna: laura wright in london.
>> i don't think it should come as any surprise that there is a spike in inflation. >> we are not concerned by the current level of inflation in the e.u. or any where in the world. >> it is influenced by energy prices and food prices. cranks all institutions consider that it will be a transitory future and we have to avoid it
coming structural. corrects we think that this increase is a temporary one. >> we are monitoring it. we should monitor it very accurately, but without going to conclusions too soon. corrects we remain vigilant that we are not concerned. corrects it is a natural feature of a very strong recovery that we are witnessing. anna: european finance ministers speaking about inflation at the forum in a movie the weekend. esty dwek from natixis is still with us. if you are not concerned about u.s. inflations, you will not be concerned about eurozone. is that the case? esty: absolutely. inflation is higher than expected for europe and it is going to stay higher but everyone expects it to drop back down into 2022. the dynamics, the labor market
dynamics in europe are just not as supportive for long-term inflation so it is not much of a concern and i don't think it will have that much of an impact on how the ecb is going to look at its balance sheet beyond the ppp. mark: european assets have done great, particularly equities. do you think that is a theme that continue given -- that can continue? are european equities one of the top kind of regional equity plays in the world going into the end of the year or is it time to shift focus elsewhere? esty: i think there is still a lot of potential for european equities into the end of the year. we think that growth is going to hold up better than expected into the -- being delayed by the delta variant but hopefully, we are starting to see peaks in
cases across europe and the u.s., which means growth can hold up. the european recovery can continue to on hold. vaccination is still doing well so you have this value cyclical tilt that should continue to hold of. we do have something of a barbell approach. not just cyclicals. we do think there is potential there. we think some of the more defensive areas such as technology can help and so that might mitigate having just europe outperform or do well. the u.s. will continue to hold up but europe should benefit into the end of the year. anna: with your focus in asia, we see two drivers of positivity in the asia session this morning or overnight, those being the japanese electoral announcements or political announcements, and the chinese tech sector rebounding. is it the right time to get back into chinese tech names or do you need to know a little more
about the extent of the change in policy from the chinese government? esty: to me, it really depends on your investment horizon. i do you that maybe the worst of it is behind us but it does not mean that uncertainty is not going to last for some time and we could have some other volatility ahead in chinese markets but if you have a slightly longer term outlook, just the sheer size of the chinese domestic market means, you know, there is a little bit of cleanup going on but even if you have a little bit less form flows, the domestic market will keep earnings for large companies doing well and growing into the coming years. the other thing is there's been a lot of worry about his focus on reducing inequality and chinese policymakers really believe this is one of the ills that came out of the global financial crisis in europe and the u.s. and they want to avoid this post-covid where they are.
>> that is a race toward who gets the first licenses, who can prove safety, who can roll out the first pilot checks in cities. it is a race to get the technology right. we are very happy with our progress. i think we have the superior technology. our laser scanners are better, more range, more precision. brian zelensky has one of the
best teams. i think we could close the gap against some of our competitors and we feel strong. together, we can be one of the top teams of autonomous driving when it comes to robo taxes. >> can you imagine sharing that with other brands later? >> we are only an investor. we have a 40% share of esps kit development. yes, we would be open to share. matt: it seems that it makes up a huge amount of mobility and you want mobility to take up a significant part of your resume. >> not as much as people think. our estimation is that by 2030, probably 15% of mobility might be autonomous services.
85% will be private cars in different use cases. also probably some share, rented. matt: 15% and 85%? >> that is our estimation. mobility as a service will grow, but will it wipe away the cobblestone? matt: in terms of how much revenue you will make? >> it is very early to say. i think there are several revenue pools in the services business. you need a platform to book the service, to meet supply and demand. you have a business to run in the cities. you have to build the cars, and the addition to this is the driverless esps kit. someone has to take responsibility for it.
there is good potential for growth and profits as well, and it will be probably very fast-growing, but it will not replace automotive's. i think we are seeing the entire mobility turnover by 2030. it can be twice as high as today because of such innovations. matt: with mobility, software, tech, it is not going to completely overtake your business. you will still be at your core a company that designs and builds cars to sell? >> very true. we think brands will remain very important for the customer to make their choices. also to express themselves. so we will maintain our brands. but technology will play a much bigger role. anna: matt miller speaking with the vw ceo. mobility as a service. how much does that rival car ownership models?
let's get a bloomberg business flash. top corporate stories we are covering. laura: the london netflix chain will reopen its iconic ring open on the trading floor after closing 18 months ago due to the pandemic. the ring is the last spot in europe where the traders set benchmarks by shouting at each other. some fear that volumes will be lower than before the closure, making the ring's
boeing's latest inspection proposal. regulators reviewed the plans. the first marvel film featuring an asian superhero dominated the u.s. weekend box office with an all-time record for a film opening over labor day. the disney movie made an estimated $71 million in u.s. and canadian markets. that is the bloomberg business flash. anna: laura wright in london. 25 or so to go before the start of european markets trading. the u.s. is closed, so we are without u.s. equity markets, without u.s. treasury trading. we do have a great deal of volatility in commodity markets. some of it is coming from politics in west africa. take us to the latest on aluminum. give us the lowdown on what has pushed these higher and the long-term context behind this push higher. tom: i am glad you mentioned both ways to pronounce it. i will say the synonym for our u.s. friends since it is their holiday. aluminum was at highs since the weekend news that military units have seized power in guinea. we do not have much clarity what the situation will be at the moment.
it is unlikely that any new administration or government in any will want to change their export contracts. why does guinea matter so much? it is the worldj's largest exporter of a product to make aluminum. it is joined with china as the largest producer, but china keeps its own product it produces, while guinea exports to russia and china. if there is a new power, they are not going to stop production, but they might want to renegotiate contracts and there is uncertainty in a market with all this surge. if you look at this chart, we are at crazy levels. on chinese contracts, we are at the highest levels ever. they have been cutting supply because they were trying to cut back on some of their electricity usage. it is an electricity intensive process. on the london contract, we are getting close to 2011 levels,
heading back toward the highs right before the great financial crisis. the only time in history where aluminum has surged quite this much, quite so quickly, was back in the mid to thousands. in 2006, there was a brief spike up. it probably collapsed about 35% in about a month. i am wary of the fact that we have a bullish picture, we had a bullish picture in the mid to 2000's. it caused a massive spike up in may 2006, and by june we had given back to 35% gain. i am wary that at some point we are approaching the level where the whole story is too one-sided. even though the underlying long-term story is all right, we might have a different longer-term story. anna: the link to stocks as interesting as well because i
have been tracking how some chinese aluminum companies have been trading higher. the assumption is that at this rate, their pricing environment is more favorable. i thought it was worth mentioning, dwelling on the fact that we saw chinese stocks going higher. today it seems to be about japan and china. chinese stocks recovering from some of their losses from recent days. the chinex extending gains. tom: there are two stories. one is there is much more china optimism today. it has been so cheap, so discounted. people are saying, we are not necessarily going to make money in the short-term, but we are confident prices will not go to the downside, that the risk reward is looking more positive. as for the aluminum companies in china, one issue is one of
guinea's companies is the largest aluminum producer outside of china. it gets 9% of its bauxite from guinea. the producer has said this will be a disruption to the market. it is providing more pricing power to some of the chinese companies in the market. anna: the hong kong listing is trading higher in this session. we will keep an eye on that. and influential voice in china issuing some kind of reassuring comments about how the chinese private sector will still be supportive. we will see whether that will have an impact on chinese stock appetite. coming up, we will stick with commodities. nigeria's state oil giant is considering an initial shale sale. this is bloomberg.
anna: welcome back to the european market open. 20 minutes to go until the start of cash equities trading. futures point to the upside. we are without the u.s. nigeria's state oil company is considering an initial share sale after the company posted its first profit in its 44 year existence. manus cranny joins us now with a guest. good morning. manus: a very good morning to you. angst for letting me into the show. we are joined by mele kyari, the nigerian national petroleum group managing director. let's start with the history for nigeria. the petroleum industry. i want to know and the market will want to know what is the biggest consequence of that for
nnpc, and what does it mean for nigerian oil production? good morning. guest: good morning. it is a great day for us here. as you just mentioned, we declared profit for fiscal year 2020 and this means just what you say. we are not getting ready for an ipo. the ipo will be along trajectory. it will align with the best practice in the industry. every country's portfolio is different. it is going to be a great company and great companies always go for ipo's.
it is not something we are going to do tomorrow. getting the ipo -- manus: so the ipo is not going to happen immediately. i suppose global investors will look at you and this interview and they want to try to understand the timeline. they are being offered a lot of ipo's today. we saw adnoc go with business for them. is this the 2022 ambition, or in the next couple of years? let's tie that down and then move on. guest: we will be in position to consider it in three years time. with the ipo, we have to do things different. then you have to do that until you get the ipo.
manus: you have taken a stake in a refinery business. in a very since angst way, tell me why and how comfortable are you as fellows together? how good is the relationship? guest: absolutely. we have a good business. we are ready to go with multiple capabilities, including a plant. we know this company is great. we have seen the numbers. we plan to have dividends within five years. we will probably have five years before we can get to this level.
it is clearly on the way to progress. we know the company will do well. in the country today, this is the quickest way to have unlimited access. manus: is part of this about security? is this about making sure that you have access? guest: two ways. first of all, we have three objectives. one is to have access to petroleum products. secondly, you are doing it for some kind of security to make sure you have access. and third, part of our deal is to produce a few thousand barrels of oil. everyone has options to go
elsewhere. manus: a good deal for everybody. let's talk about production. nigeria's production dropped to a five-year low in august. how do you recover? how quickly can you get back to your opec-plus quota? guest: i think it is september or october.the reason we were not able to do this is simple. that is what we are managing. we are making sure we take out some of the impediments to that and a gradual recovery. the numbers are very different. in september, we think we can recover. otherwise, we are very hopeful that we will get back and potentially do better than what we should be doing. manus: let's get to the oil
market. obviously, the saudis have just cut their pricing to asia by more than double than we expected. do you see a risk or do you see the need that opec-plus is going to need to pause the output increases before the end of the year? guest: i don't think so. i don't think it will be necessary because we will still have the supply globally. the cartel will get the numbers right, but there will be shortages in supply. we are anticipating any reaction to this in the market. manus: we are at 71.78 on brent as we speak.
do you see the risk by continuing to put 400,000 barrels onto the market between now and the end of the year? there is a risk with delta that you turn to an oversupplied market. guest: we are having issues around covid with the delta or lambda variants and it may have an effect on demand. i don't think this is across the globe. many are in a position where they are reopening and others are shut down. what we see in the market today is we will see this $70 level of oil lift in three or four weeks. we do not see those reactions coming quickly. i think some reaction comes from the increase of production. i don't see any massive change in the price, therefore any reaction around price probably
will not be very useful. manus: just to close off, as i said to you, societies have cut their pricing by more than double oh -- saudis have cut their pricing by more than double. guest: we have a different market with them. the demand for petroleum is very different from the saudis. we will have a price cut from the saudis. but many of our customers do need our crude. manus: always great to have you with us. i look forward to welcoming you in dubai. we are getting a special dispensation. you will bring me a new hat. you will be the first guest to come to the doors.
guest: i will catch up with you. i appreciate it. manus: and a new hat. i want a new hat. guest: i will bring you a new hat. manus: thank you, sir. nigeria national petroleum group director mele kyari. let's turn that conversation back to anna. anna: thank, manus. manus getting a free fashion restyle as well. manus cranny brings us that exclusive conversation around nigerian oil. coming up, we will be back to the stocks we are watching this morning, including european minors on surging aluminum prices. those stocks and more coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
european market open. 6:53 in london. equity market futures point higher this morning after a selloff from friday. let's get the stocks we are watching. one eye on the mining sector today. joe: we are keeping an eye on that sector following this jewel impact. the military coup in guinea which has been mentioned on the program, that is seeing aluminum prices spiking up to around a decade high. in terms of stocks that will be affected by this, they are mainly away from the core companies we normally look at. we are looking at norsk hydro in scandinavia. also albert's in the netherlands. those are not big names we tend to look at, but those are the big core companies like rio tinto that will be affected more by the futures dropping in terms
of the iron ore price with china cracking down again on steel production. that may fall slightly and we will see the smaller exposure to the aluminum sector rising. it could be a mixed effect and it depends on what the bigger impact is today. this is an engineer spinning off of liquid processing unit. it tends to be exposed to the medical sector. it should be taken well by investors, given it could result in a capital return. anna: thanks to joe easton from our equities team. the earnings from that business, we will keep an eye on that one. european equity market futures point to the upside. they underperformed during friday's session.
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anna: welcome back to the european market open. i am anna edwards live in london with tom mackenzie. tom: here are your top stories. disappointing jobs numbers. the smallest increase in seven months adds to uncertainty over the fed's taper timeline. the u.s. is closed for labor day. aluminum surges. crisis hit a decade high as a coup in guinea fuels concerns oversupply of a key raw material. plus, we are live at the munich autoshow. don't miss our conversations with the ceo's of vw and bmw,
plus many more. anna:anna: lots to discuss when it comes to the mining sector. that is something we will keep an eye on in the london market. this was a future of the asia session. you wonder how much of that story from asia will be picked up. a little bit in terms of the sentiment. futures dewpoint to the upside. europe underperformed. the u.s. has yet to digest the jobs data. tom: futures pointing up. the data coming from germany looking positive through the month of july, but supply chain is still an issue. cbi coming out with a tongue lashing for the lack of effort around trying to ensure there are workers available to ease some of the supply chains. not just lorries, but other sectors as well. a coming out showing that
emmanuel macron is neck and neck with marine le pen. the ftse re-hundred is gaining -- the ftse 300 is gaining. spain is in a single territory, up 25 points. the cac gaining .02%. a strong session -- the cac gaining 0.2%. a strong session. anna: we are without the united states because of the labor day holiday but markets opening up here in europe. let's think about what we heard from the friday session because it is still something we are working our way through. it was a big mess for the august jobs report. payrolls were short of the estimate. here is how some key voices reacted. >> this was a materially lower number. >> this has some delta variant
on it. >> this is the long game coming out of a worldwide pandemic. >> there is one huge red flag for me in this payrolls report. zero jobs were created in leisure and hospitality. >> we had almost zero gain in this month. >> the markets are looking through this and saying, this is temporary. >> the fed is going to taper. >> the market is pushing back any sort of taper until november or december. >> they don't need to rush into it. the most important thing to not lose sight of is the emphasis that tapering is not tightening. tom: we are joined by martin malone. good morning. what are the key takeaways for you from this disappointing jobs data? or at least the miss versus the forecast? guest: actually, we are not disappointed about it at all, really. it is a delta issue to a large
extent, and we are very optimistic about the jobs market simply because of the output count. we see wider unemployment measure outperforming. that is error key measure. -- that is our key measure. much more importantly is what is happening today, and even though it is labor day, 10 million people will fall out of the labor market subsidies in the u.s.. the september reports, which we will get in october, that will be the most important signal from fed policy in tapering for the rest of the year. anna: good morning to you. talk to us a little more about the different measures of unemployment and what that tells us about the structure of the market? guest: we lost 20 million jobs
last year, and it rapidly rebounded around $15 billion -- 50 million or 16 billion. -- 15 million or 16 million. the point is to get jobs back as fast as possible. that is the most important thing here, allowing all of the subsidies -- it is almost like big banks in america, all subsidies will end. at least 7 million will have no subsidies from tomorrow and a significant number of the economists within the white house are very worried about that. and we will get the first outlook at that with the september payrolls in october, and that could be much worse than what we saw on friday. tom: just focus and keeping the focus on the wages and the labor
market, the wages more than doubling above forecasts from the non-farm payrolls. the tools for the fed are limited as it looks to a taper. is there a risk here of stagflation? guest: there is, and we are in the middle of it right now because the inflation levels this quarter are tracking at 5%, and the gdp report for q3 could be closer to 3%. so we already have significant stagnation in q3. as we see in the vaccines in the u.s., they have almost stalled for the last three months. they are at 75 million, which sounds like a huge number, but europe has done 280 million and asia has done 2.3 billion. we are seeing a tick up slightly
in vaccines, and this is different across america. the southern states is where we are seeing vaccines tick up at low levels, whereas in the northern states we are seeing a very fast tick up. that is troublesome and we will have to see more action on vaccines in america to get a little more bullish for q4. anna: stagnation is a possibility, as you point out. meanwhile, u.s. stocks hit new records. the nasdaq touching a new record on friday's session. as long as we have interest rates as low as they are, does this continue? guest: this is the dilemma here. we talk about this negative economic information. some of the democratic senators are not going to play along with the 3.5 trillion dollar stimulus package. this could derail the fiscal policies with votes to be taken
in september and october in congress. overall, the policy is extremely supportive. we must remember that the most important companies in america, a large amount of their business is not just in the united states. in the tech sector, 40% of their revenues are outside of america, so we have to look at the european and asian space when we look at the u.s. stock market as well. it is not a domestic stock market. anna: martin malone from alpha book with us this morning. he referenced politics. we will be back to that theme shortly. coming up, germany's election is looming on the horizon and environmental issues have been a key battleground. we will get an update from germany on that particular part of the political story in germany as we go to the election. this is bloomberg. ♪
moving to the upside, some asia influence. we are without the united states today because it is labor day, but we have individual movers that are of interest. medmix pharmaceuticals is for the veterinary side of things, and they met estimates. the stock is down by 6% this morning. the reed across from in asia was pretty -- the read across from asia was pretty strong. tom: tencent is seeing a gain of more than 20%. you are seeing a gain of 2.6%. they are coming up to say maybe we are looking at a circuit breaker for chinese tech. anna: we are seeing a rate cut having an impact on e qt. that stock down by 3.8% or so after zou plus confirmed it was in talks with e qt regarding a temporary takeover.
that is weighing on the business and the sell recommendation. tom: there are some of the individual stock stories. let's switch to politics. three weeks until germany's election and environmental issues have been a key battleground issue, with a focus on coal and a thriving industrial sector. the country is europe's biggest polluter, but can germany cut its carbon footprint without cutting jobs and economic growth? let's get more with maria tadeo. how far is this election being fought on the issue of climate change? how central is this? maria: it is a huge topic going into this election. if you look at polls, 40% of germans will tell you that the next priority for the next government should be taking on climate action. that is a huge number for a single issue. there are a number of reasons
why this is happening. you do have a huge generational change. you do see a lot of germans who tell you they care about the future and going green or. you have a legislation to implement the green deal. they need clear guidance to compete and stay competitive with the cars they need to make. that makes it a central issue. when you look at the big parties running in the election, they agree that they need to hit climate neutrality, but they do disagree and differ in terms of the policy measures they want to take on, and especially the timeline going forward. anna: how do the parties' targets differ when it comes to the climate agenda? maria: when you look at their different manifestoes, the spd and cdu, which are currently in
government and competing to win the election, they are aligned in terms of the targets and timeline. both say that by 2045, germany will need to be climate neutral. this is five years before the european deadline. it is 2050 for the eu. they say they need to cut down emissions by 88% by 2040. when you look at the greens, it is a more ambitious target. they say they want to get the carbon neutrality in the next 20 years. they say the german industry needs to remove diesel cars, taking them off the road. a key factor for them is when you look at net investment to modernize the economy, they say that should be exempt from the debt rule. it is about the amount of money that will be put into work, the regulation, and the timeline going forward to hit those goals. anna: thanks very much.
maria tadeo in berlin. sticking with politics, it is not just germany where we are seeing movement. the leaders of canada and france are fighting a jump in the polls. the weekend saw a military coup in guinea. leaving aside that the activity in guinea and what it is doing on the commodities space, thinking about the larger economies, martin malone is still with us. do you think we are going to see a focus on fiscal policy? that seems to be the message coming out of japan, that one man steps to the side and everyone questions whether we will see fiscal stimulus coming through. will that be the theme of the fall? guest: yes, i think you are spot on. basically we have to contrast this. we have a political pandemic going on, so we have progressed from the covid into the political space and we are
potentially going to have new political leaders in three of the g7 in germany, canada, and japan. we also see the net approvals in the u.s. and u.k. of their leaders have imploded. this is huge pressure for political leaders. what do you do post-pandemic? what do you do post war on terror? what do you do for net zero? this is basically the background, and the main issue is we have monetary policy near the lower bound. we have central bank balance sheets at record levels. this basically holds the entire fiscal policy which has to do the heavy lifting over the next several years. all climate related policies will be fiscally related, not monetarily related, and all leaders will be under pressure to deliver action, positive action on fiscal.
very different from the situation after the 2008 crisis. tom: how do they navigate the need for additional fiscal support that you have outlined with these inflationary pressures? we are seeing it feedthrough with aluminum on the back of this coup in guinea. and the gas prices as well, the reluctance by the russians to increase production on that shipment of gas from russia to europe. how does all of that feed into the decision-making in brussels? guest: it is a circle that has to be squared. with all these leadership changes, the direction on all these questions are going to be different than what we expect. some of the key people, whether it is political stability with relation to mario draghi in rome. it will not just be an italian decision-making process, but also in brussels. we assume all of scholes -- olaf
scholz will be the new chancellor and he will significantly change the historic german fiscal policy to a new regime. and it will make it much easier to make those decisions when you have fiscal tailwinds, and that is what scholes and draghi will push aggressively in the european union. anna: if we are going to see fiscal tailwinds for the fall, what will that do to the euro? there has been some upward pressure on the euro, given inflation and all the talk of taper at the ecb. we have the ecb later this week. but general it is a stable currency relative to many. what do you anticipate we will see? guest: we are positive the euro because of some of the things you mentioned. the euro has to take away some of that easing because if we
have significant monetary easing for another 18, 24 months, significant fiscal easing, something has to tighten up and that will come through the currency angle. i think the currency has done well over the last two weeks and can move above 120 levels. tom: martin malone, great insights. chief economic advisor at alphabook joining us. let's take a look at the miners on the back of this aluminum story. bauxite is shipped from guinea, where there has been a coup. this is playing into the european space as well. you see it reflected on stock prices for rusal, which has a listing in hong kong. they are gaining more than 12% on the back of decade highs when it comes to the aluminum price. coming ure back.
european market open. 52 minutes into our trading session -- 22 minutes into our trading session. auto shows are back. munich will be europe's first major car showcase in two years, a chance for automakers to show off the fruits of their labor. however, carmakers like audi will be sending smaller teams and the show is overshadowed by the possibility that deals will be canceled amid a covid resurgence. matt miller has been hot footing it in high anticipation of this munich auto show. we heard your interview with vw earlier on. matt: the talking points are definitely going to be around mobility. you will hear a lot of announcements on, for example, revenue expectations from mobility. we are now hearing forecasts that major automakers expect substantial 15 percent, 20% of
contributions from mobility, rather than the old school core business of building cars and selling them. the thing we will have to be talking about the most at this show is supply chains. how many chips can you get? how will you allocate the chips to the different brands you have? volkswagen has 10 or 12 brands. all of those brand heads are fighting for the potential of herbert diess, saying, please give us the chips you have. that is happening at every company. the thing that will come up over and over is jostling for batteries, jostling for the minerals that go into them, or jostling for chips. it will be all about the supply chain under the hood here in munich. tom: interesting, that internal competition for those supplies in those businesses, as well as
competition between businesses. in terms of autonomous driving, what are the developments there? to what extent is the semiconductor shortage playing into that? matt: it is not as much playing into a taunus driving because there are not -- playing into autonomous driving because there are not many cars able to do that yet. what diess told me from volkswagen is we need to ramp up production of those specialized vehicles. demand isn't an issue on that side yet, or at least they don't want demand to jump up too quickly. they don't expect to be a taunus piece to make up so much of the mobility. maybe 15% will be like robo taxis or the kind of cars you just get into that take you to a place and you get out and you do not own the car. that will not be a huge portion of it. the chip shortage is going to
affect the ev space and the legacy internal combustion engines that they are making for sale. they expected the chip shortage to be over at the end of the summer, and now they are seeing another dip in terms of supply difficulty. diess was saying it will be months, possibly years before they get to the end of these bottleneck issues. tom: possibly years. that is quite something. matt miller for us on the ground for munich. we will have more from matt throughout the day. coming up, we keep it on cars. we hear from the ceo of bmw. we will bring you our conversation on the ed markets. bringing you to the attention of the aluminum prices. rusal listed in hong kong, shares above 12% on the back of those price pressures following the coup in guinea. that is used in the process of
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♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open. 30 minutes into our european trading day this monday, here are your top stories. disappointing jobs numbers. the smallest increase in seven months add to uncertainty over the fed's taper timeline. the u.s. is closed for labor day. aluminum surge. prices in a decade high as a coup in guinea feels concerns over raw materials. plus, live at a show. don't miss our conversations with bmw, plus many more. tom, european equity markets
getting a boost, real positive handover from the asia session. japan, china helping to lift nearly all sectors, particularly the tech sector. tom: we have been speaking to the analysts, suggesting the regroups number isn't so negative. you look at wage growth and how they're structured around employment. the weights are more than double estimates. state street saying that is a positive. absolutely, these markets are taking a cue from the positivity we saw in japan, still above a 30 year high, and optimism in china that may be some of the regulatory challenges despite the new focus on the financial sector. the stoxx europe 600 gaining .5%. here in the u.k., cbi coming out and giving the government a tongue lashing on supply chains. the ftse 100 benefiting from strength in the minors. the dax is getting 100 points, and the cac 40 also solidly in positive territory, just marking
some german data we had out for july, suggesting there's a factory production picture looking a little bit more positive. let's switch onto the sector and see how things are breaking down this monday morning as we are 30 minutes into the session in europe, gains of more than 1%, at the bottom just one sector in the red. that is real estate down, up .3%. very good news out of germany, the fact that we are on the ground at the auto show in maryland -- in munich. matt miller is covering that for us. battery sales to keep up with increased demand for electric vehicles that made up the more than 11% of deliveries during the half of the year. we spoke with the bmw ceo on the ev market, and the challenges in meeting this demand. >> just this year, we went up our contracts, which we had with our supply, 12 billion euros up to over 20 million euros. so we are ramping up there, and
we always said battery technology, the electric supply trains is not an easy thing to handle. but we are now in our 10th year of developing this, and we are very confident that we can ramp up this market demand as quickly as possible. >> what about the sixth generation around 2025? what kind of improvements can customers expect then? >> the sixth generation will come with our new fully electric architecture. and i think the main thing is to extend the range to increased the energy and at the same time, reduce cost. >> you'll really focus on reusing materials for making new cars. but in the short term, medium term, where are your key worries on raw material imports for batteries? where do you think we might see the biggest bottlenecks? >> right, singularity is not
only a collective argument, also an economic argument. what we see this year, the increase and raw material prices are on the rise. for various reasons, but it is an economic reality. so i think for ecological reasons, but also as a business model, i think we have to put singularity more into the focus, and the class is designed around those possibles. >> which raw materials are you worried about right now? >> currently, steel is getting more expensive. we have palladium, rhodium, copper is getting more expensive. so it's a wide range. it's not one single raw material we're looking at. and i think it's good advice to take that more serious. >> ok. and if we're sticking with supply issues, i have to ask about semiconductors, of course. the second half is going to be significantly more difficult.
and since then, we've had more bad news in terms of supply. what are you bracing for right now during the second half? >> our take is the first half year, we were able to compensate for our customers. and as i said some weeks ago, the second half is more difficult. and that is what we've seen now. it is more difficult. it's a problem for many months. but we are intensively working with our suppliers to compensate for our customers. anna: elizabeth speaking with oliver zipse, really interesting about singular date and how is not just an ecological, but economic development. let's get a bloomberg first word news update with laura wright. maria: the taliban laura: the taliban say they have captured -- laura: the taliban say they have captured a part of the country. a spokesman for the group said rebel fighters have fled the province.
taliban are expected to announce details of their new government soon. aluminum has hit a 10 year high after a unit of guineas military seized power and suspended the constitution. the west african nation is a key source of bauxite, which is for aluminum. they urged the armed forces. they accused the president of financial mismanagement and corruption. the uk's biggest business lobby criticize the government over labor shortages, warning they could last as long as two years. the cbi's director general said a perfect form of brexit, cutting the supply of workers from the eu and the pandemic has left many sectors without what they need. they want immigration to fill job gaps. the top white house medical advisor said the pfizer and biontech vaccine is the only one likely to be approved for covid-19 initially while the madrona shop may be delayed.
dr. fauci's comments may provide more clarity on the administration's stance. the white house faced political interference in the review process. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom, anna? tom: laura, thank you very much indeed. coming up, hydrogen is becoming an increasingly popular option for climb -- combating climate change. we talked to an investment fund that will focus on the sector. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open. just 40 minutes into ever european trading day, the u.s. closing court for labor day, so bear that in mind in terms of volumes we might see or nazi see in the afternoon here in europe. the for the moment, equity markets moving to the upside, lifted by better sentiment out of the asia session. a member of the family behind one of the world's largest construction equipment maker's has cofounded an investment fund to focus on the hydrogen sector. they have raised more than 200 million pounds as it aims to boost reduction and supply of hydrogen made for renewable energy. it comes as hydrogen becomes an increasingly popular option for
climatic -- combating climate change. the owner of the northern ireland's face bus company right bus and of this fund, thank you for coming to talk to us, joe. let me ask you what your expectations are for the investment opportunity. how big is the investment opportunity in hydrogen? joe: well, hydrogen is just starting, but it's a very important part around the world. it can be used for all sorts of things. but you have to start with transport because that's what the cost bay and our job and our hope with this fund is we're going to invest 75% of it in the u.k. to drive the hydrogen economy in the u.k. and bring parts of the hydrogen value chain that we don't have here to the u.k. and get the volume up. tom: ok, jo, let's unpick that a little bit more than. 75% domestically.
what are you planning to build out that supply train? -- supply chain? jo: you've got to make hydrogen at six pounds, 50 kilos, on tax diesel. and we can do that today. we're building hydrogen production facilities in the u.k. today. and we'll start with transport and then we'll do heavier stuff. anna: ok, so transport is the focus for you. in terms of the business it's going to invest in, where in the supply chain do you see the most investment opportunities? production, distribution, storage? where along that supply chain will you focus? jo: a whole lot. the most difficult thing with hydrogen is marrying supply and demand. anywhere between 20% and 40% of the fund will be production of hydrogen, particular green hydrogen, which is turning water into hydrogen.
and then the other parts of the fund will be looking at splits that aren't there today, hydrogen filling stations, invested in businesses. ultimately, the other end is buses. we can do a bus, truck, van, other parts of the economy. if you're looking at hydrogen and looking to invest in the world of hydrogen, you get to look at the value chain and decide whether you want to invest. and the interesting bit is the government planned to put in 10 gigawatts of production the next 10 years. our fund aims to do at least a gigawatt of that over the next 10 years and help the british economy move towards net zero. tom: you touched on the government's response. what more could they be doing? jo: i think the government are doing what they couldn't do, putting to did 40 million pounds into the world of hydrogen. tom: that doesn't sound like
very much. it sounds like a drop in the ocean. jo: i think the government is trying harder. hopefully we will end up having more money to invest in the economy. germany are going to spend $9 billion on this. i think we need to do the same in the u.k. the government announced a lot of plans to hydrogen and these people will say we will invest alongside you. we do need to have subsidy regimes a bit more defined, which enables investments to be better made. but in essence, we can start get going today and really push towards getting to know zero in the economy. anna: your rate is 200 million pounds, jo. you want to invest in hydrogen. who are the investors? who are the people who put money
into the fund, the types of investors who want to get exposure to hydrogen energy at this point? jo: well, in essence, we put some money in, but the investors are more pension funds, some family offices, and also some people in a hydrogen value chain who realize that they need to tie up other parts of that value chain to make it work. so if you're an oil and gas company and you make oil and gas, but you don't have a customer to invest in this fund because we've got a customer for, or if you are a truck manufacturer making hydrogen trucks but don't have hydrogen production, invest in this, which is kind of interesting. on the other side, if youi're a pension fund who wants to have exposure to hydrogen funds but don't know where to invest, put your money into this and you can decide whether what returns you want and how to look at it and were to come invest. because the most difficult thing
of hydrogen is understanding it and how does it marry up and how is it not marrying up. tom: we've had a lot of focus, and there has been a lot in the last couple months, about input prices and inflationary pressures. i wonder if you are saying that into your bus business, jo. jo: we are seeing inflation or and markets. clearly, you're looking at a global market. luckily we're in northern ireland, and we don't move as much. we've just announced another 300 jobs. we took over the bus business two years ago. it was bankrupt. we had 45 employees. now we have about thousand. our first year out of bankruptcy, we made a profit. during covid, there was a lot of hard work. but you know, it's been a wonderful place to be an investor. anna: can i ask you, on that subject, you say that your
business interests are u.k. focused. the cbi has been pretty critical of the government overnight, telling how they should do more to free up the labor market or to maybe even allow sovereign workers back in because of difficulties finding enough people to drive heavy vehicles and the like. what's your experience of hiring at this point? jo: we are in northern ireland, where we aren't having a huge impact on hiring. mostly, it's based in secondary or tertiary towns, not the southeast. we're the main employer in those towns. so actually, we normally get people coming back quite well and there is a bit of difficulty in getting people, but we also have good info to ships. , and in the family business we also -- apprenticeships. and in the family business, we
also meet people. they don't move a lot from our area because we get back to our communities, as well. tom: ok, jo, thank you for joining us, hydrogen giving us his views on some of those labor constraints, hydrogen of hydrogen energy producer, right hydrogen, and owner of wrightbus. let's get the bloomberg business flash with laura wright. laura: thanks, tom. goldman, which specializes in buying stakes elicits a new investment vehicle that holds stakes in companies with $187 billion in assets. they both have unmannerly state and other alternative managers that will then list an ipo in london. sources say the entity could be worth more than $5 billion. the london stage will reopen its iconic reopen trading floor after closing 18 months ago due
to the pandemic. the ring is the last spot where your trade is still shouting orders at one another, but many fear volumes will be sharply lower than before,'s making the ring continued operation uneconomical. the dreamliner are expected to be delight until late october. that's according to the wall street journal. the report says the faa rejected boeing's latest inspection proposal, posting dreamland deliveries in may while regulars reviewed its plans. the first marvel film featuring an asian superhero, "shang-chi and the legend of the 10 rings" dominated the box office. the disney movie made an estimated $71 million in u.s. and canadian theaters, bowling pass initial estimates of $52 million. that's the bloomberg business flash. anna: thanks very much, laura wright in london. coming up, aluminum climbs to
♪ >> we are working on a very large market. and that gigantic market, there is an each, which is super high-performance cards -- a nich, which is super high-performance cars. i think the very important point is that those cards made a very special technology. so clearly, italy gets autonomous in producing the high-performance batteries. anna: roberto, italy's minister on the country's attempt to shield supercars from the eu's plan phase out, something i'm sure matt miller would be interested in talking to you about if you contacted him via instant messenger. now, let's have a look at where we are on equity markets 53 minutes into our trading date. and we have european equity markets making decent gains,
lifted by better sentiment from asian markets, up .6% on the stocks euro 600. we are joined from our markets live team. a host of factors pushing markets higher, some of those coming through from asia. we also have aluminum story, of course, the military takeover in new guinea, west africa, pushing up the price of bauxite. this is also listing -- lifting the share prices of metals. heather: good morning. guinea is the biggest exporter of bauxite, antedate, the political -- and today, the political unrest is sending them to the highest in a decade, and this also comes as you have china coming back to reduce emissions and because of electricity issues, and you've also had rising metal prices across the board. so this kind of adds to that uncertainty. tom: has should we expect markets to readjust to this change the taper timeframe and
what it might mean for the dot plots? heather: right now, friday's jobs appoint -- jobs report was disappointing to everyone, and wages were higher than expected. in this sense of coming out is that the fed probably won't announce a tapering in september. maybe that will get pushed back into november. in essence, that will probably also push the dot plots back a year or so depending on what comes out in terms of the taper. and remember that the fed has made it very clear that the tapering is not going to be the same as rate hikes. anna: in focus in germany, we have a reshuffle, or expansion of the debt at the dax that is in train. what are we learning about the new makeup of this german blue-chip index? heather: right, so the dax is extending to 40 members from 30 as the german benchmark and you sell quite a bit of growth companies from an online
clothing retailer and just the food takeaway, palma, which makes apparel and sneakers. and that could add to the growth appeal. the dax is really a cyclical index. it has a lot of autos and industrials, and it has been hit by concerns of a slowing economy and supply chain issues. and adding some of those could make it more attractive to global investors. tom: heather burke from the mliv team on the restructuring of the dax, also the impact of that much lower than expected jobs number. thank you very much indeed. just checking in on the european markets before we let you go, why 5% gains across the benchmark, gains here in the u.k., france, germany, spain, italy as well. the euro-dollar is currently 118, a little stronger in today's session. looking ahead to the ecb at the end of this week, as well, pointing out german data around the factory space, as well.
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>> there is a spike in inflation. >> there is a need to invest more so we can get rid of this dependency. >> it's more difficult, it is here to stay, the problem for many months. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition" with francine lacqua. francine: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance: ea