tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 7, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
been lumped into this quarter. >> the reality on the economy moving to a sustained level of growth. nothing structural has changed. >> it is almost a market saying the fed is exiting no matter what. >> the most important thing is the emphasis that the tapering is not tightening. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro joined by kailey leinz. tom keene needed extra were asked -- extra rest. he will be off today and tomorrow. on the s&p, we are unchanged. the big question as we kick off this morning, have we already had an early downgrade to september? lisa: because we are going to
get the delta variant slowing the return to work, how much does that prolong the shift of people back into jobs and the jobs data tomorrow will be interesting to that point. jonathan: goldman sachs out yesterday with a downgrade for this year. your read on that this morning? lisa: it follows what morgan stanley did. the slowdown has been more significant than people have thought in the month of august, and yet they are not seeing sufficient rebound in the fourth quarter to make up for that. i think it is serious. academy securities came out with a note showing that if people remain out of these jobs long enough, what is to stop them from getting automated? for those positions to disappear? that seems to be a concern. jonathan: a good point. this is meant to be the road to september 22. it feels like we are deemphasizing the federal reserve meeting on the 22nd. kailey: it is the question of
whether a tapir announcement is off the table because of everything you and lisa mentioned. growth expectations being re-rated, the payroll support, and the return to office that was supposed to happen post labor day not materializing because of the delta variant. does that mean a fed know is going to come later this year? some are saying they will put it off until december. jonathan: the summer is over. this is so american. it is 28 degrees outside. in london, we call it a heat wave. lisa: you want to get angry about summer is over. i will say, there is a question, who stops wearing white after labor day? jonathan: not me. lisa: this is a thing. jonathan: who was following the thing? lisa: there are people who follow the thing. kailey: michael mckee showed up on friday trying to get it in ready for it was too late. jonathan: we will talk about
that later. the s&p 500 unchanged. we are down about two points. the noticeable move is in the bond market. yields higher by four basis points. two-year anchored at 21 basis points. this is a steeper curve. yields are up to 136.30. we are going through the supply slate through the week ahead. tens and 30's as the week progresses. going into the ecb, euro-dollar unchanged. lisa: i'm glad you picked up on that yield going higher and i wonder how much is that to do with structural issues like supply-chain disruptions. that will be what is in focus today. angela merkel is kicking off the iaa mobility trade show. this is not an auto trade show. this is a mobility trade show talking about all the things going into mobility, which highlights all of the supply constraints that have hit the
auto industry hard. you see that when you look at shipping costs. you take a look at the cause of shipping from shanghai to los angeles come a record highs. you have people complaining that you have record delays in terms of getting supplies. how are they planning to remedy that? when we -- we will be hearing from the qualcomm co shortly. today, bitcoin becomes legal tender in el salvador. you have people coming out, "it is sex a pretty dangerous." to be, how much this intermediates the intermittency's. i think that is really the point. at four clock p.m., president biden is going to speak on storm damage in new jersey and new york and it goes to what kailey was talking about, which we did get that weaker than expected jobs report. how much can president biden say we want to give you a as he
still has that $3.5 trillion reconciliation plan that is losing support from the likes of joe manchin. how can he spend the fact that he can have more money go to different states at a time when you're getting a slowdown and it is unclear what could be behind it? this comes as the rolloff of unemployment benefits takes place, at a time of weakening. i think this is a pivotal moment of concern for the president. jonathan: it is 60, but dangerous. i am not letting that -- it is sexy, but dangerous. i am not letting that slide. that was actually your line. just before people start complaining, it is all you. i appreciate that. my producers reached out to me. no one knows what 28 degrees means. 82, if that helps people in america. it is 82 when i say 28 degrees.
the wealth management director of investment strategy. let's talk about the month of september. we talked about it so main times on this program. it was a big month, return to work, get back to school, the end of unemployment insurance. it was all of those things that meant that supply was finally starting to meet demand. are we deemphasizing this month of september already? jeffrey: i would have to say the jobs report certainly put that on the table. there was talk of a weakened market. everyone talking about september october are the weakest months. i think you have given the fed some ammunition to not taper, to really extend their easy $120 billion purchases for the foreseeable future. it is interesting to see the 10 year yield this morning, as you
pointed out. equity futures were up most of the weekend when i was looking at them. they traded yesterday and they were up slightly. and today, they are modest or flatter. markets continue to look through september, october. the markets are always looking six months out. lisa: not to interrupt you, but there is a question of whether markets are looking past this weakness or whether they are taking advantage of a goldilocks situation for them. if the economy is weakening enough to keep inflation at bay, while the fed remains pretty loose. jeffrey: i think you hit the nail on the head. the markets love this period of time where earnings growth is good. our gdp is higher than in 2019 and yet, we still have six or 7 million jobs still unfilled. it is an amazing time to be an investor in risk assets and you are getting this slow down.
the fed is perhaps going to tap on the brakes. i do not look at this as a tightening move by the fed, but you might be in that perfect market where you are getting a lot of agility in economic variables, but the market itself is looking through that. if you averaged the last three jobs reports, it is still 750 per month. those are decent numbers, but the volatility is causing concern. again, markets might see that as a blessing. kailey: is the case for buying equities still predicated on bond yields in this lower range around 130-135? jeffrey: i don't know if they have to stay that low. as a student of history, the variable we have to pay attention to is inflation. inflation has the ability all by itself to ruin a lot of the
asset prices of course with bond mass, it will take bond prices down. in the equity markets it influences multiples. i do not know if it is predicated on staying this low. a modest move higher in rates through time over quarters would not disturb the market too much. we saw what happened to markets when they went up to 175 basis points on the 10 year earlier this year, especially some of the longer duration stocks. it has the potential to be quite disruptive in the short run. you do get valuations, rich relative to fixed income, continued to be reasonably priced. if meals do stay in this level, equity markets continued to have the -- continue to have the ability to rise because they are inexpensive compared to fixed income. jonathan: good to catch up. jeffrey mortimer of in my melon
-- nellon wealth management. we have persistently higher than expected numbers. still pretty decent numbers, but decelerating nevertheless. in that environment, what are the kind of companies you want to own? where do you want to be if inflation persists and growth continues? lisa: the question is where does inflation persist. is this going to be supply chain driven disruptions? is it going to be labor market shortages? it makes a difference. if wages stay constant, that starts to be more concerning, especially with enhancement employment benefits rolling off. again, these details matter so much in terms of the trajectory of the economy. jonathan: what are we focused on? friday and the fact that we have had a three month average of 750? lisa: it is pretty tidy.
however, there is a question about the lack of growth in hospitality. how much is due to the delta variant and how much is due to something structurally happening where people are getting replaced by either technology or people are not getting replaced. to me, this is something, i go back to that note because he raises a lot of the concerns people are mulling over right now. jonathan: we go to europe next. we just had a call out of germany for a chancellor merkel's block has dropped below 20%. >> matt miller out of berlin as well. he has a legacy in the german government and of course, it had a lot of recognition and seems to be growing in the polls act the expense of angela merkel's block. jonathan: we will head to munich to catch up with matt miller. from new york city, good morning as wall street gets back to work and summer ends.
from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: there was an unexpected jump in exports in china. they rose almost 20% to a record $294 billion. demand remains resilient, especially from the u.s. and europe. it is likely that retailers shopping. boris johnson will risk a major fight with his own conservative party. he is announcing his plan to reform social care. to pay for it, the government is ready to go ahead with a $14 billion tax increase. that is despite pledging not to do so in the conservative election manifesto. an economist at goldman sachs, expansion in 2021 is at 5.7%, down from the 6% in the previous forecast. goldman says there will be a
harder path ahead for the american consumer than previously anticipated. merrick garland is promising to protect women in texas seeking an abortion. the justice department is looking at ways to challenge the states new rule on abortion. the supreme court declined to block the law, which banned abortion as early as six weeks into her pregnancy. the retail farmer agrees to sell for $1.8 billion. the buyers, one of the biggest transactions in the european telecom sector. softbank has announced a plan that will increase the holding in t-mobile. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.
for the next month to years because semiconductors are in high demand and the capacity ramp-up will take time so it will be probably a bottleneck for the next months and years to come. jonathan: and years to come, that was volkswagen. from new york city, good morning, alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i am jonathan ferro. your equity market shaping up as follows, totally unchanged. this is where the lift is. yields, treasuries. yields are higher by four basis points. lisa, yields are higher, a steeper curve. lisa: people thinking it has to do with the fed remaining on hold for longer that allows inflation to rise. i wonder at what point this becomes a concern for equity investors and other risk assets. jonathan: that is the theme this morning. another theme is in munich with matt miller. this is a day in the life of matt miller. i am not even sure we can call this work for you. good morning.
matt: if you love your job, then you cannot call it work, jonathan. my first time back at an auto show since march of 2019. i am happy to be back in my element. but this show is less about cars and much more about tech than it has been before. i am talking with cristiano amon , the ceo of qualcomm. it is great to talk to you because all of the other ceos i have spoken to over the past two days have been focused on chips. you must feel like the most invited dinner guest. how is it going with your business, considering the bottlenecks, the supply chain issues we have been hearing about cristiano: chips are important. we are very excited in general, not just because of the importance of chips and the current situation. car companies are becoming technology companies.
automotive is one of the fastest growing businesses for us. we just announced our last earnings. over $10 billion of revenue. it is over $1 billion of revenue this fiscal year. we are partnering with the automotive companies across all of the major transformations. autonomy. a very exciting time. matt: chips are being used for motorcycles. i have been able to experience the first blind spot detection as well as automated cruise control on a motorcycle. that is cool. in terms of the broader industry, the slowdown seems to be lasting longer than expected. ceos are telling us six months to 12 months, probably deep into 2022. how is it with qualcomm? cristiano: there is a new reality across the board that
the percentage of digital component of the economy is higher. we all saw the pandemic accelerated digital transformation in many enterprises and the automotive industry was not immune to that. we are excited about the opportunity. this demand is here to stay. of course, we are short in all technology across our industry. the good news, we put our scale to work. we have been investing with our suppliers in more capacity and we expect supply improvements at the end of this calendar year. we will enter 2022 with a much more balanced supply-demand equation. matt: can i ask you about m&a, your competitor nvidia wants to buy for $40 billion. regulators are concerned nvidia is not going to allow everyone equal access to chip designs and why would they if they are paying $40 billion for it? what are your thoughts on the
possibility of let's open on climate? cristiano: we have been very consistent in our position about this, as well as many other companies. they are a leader, implementer of arms technology. arm already won. they won on mobile devices, automotive, computers. they have been quite successful. because we are an independent company, they were able to rely on the collection of r&d investment of this product. they are a great company. we love an independent arm. we think that is the reason for its success. we continue to believe an independent arm is a better solution for everyone. matt: what happens if nvidia gets control of the company? are you concerned they would limit your access to design? cristiano: at the end of the
day, we trust that the regulators are going to take this serious and as digital as we talked about earlier, as digital is important for every industry, we need to have a competitive and open and transparent system, especially if anybody has a dominant position like arm does. matt: i have to ask you about china. a few months ago, regulators in china were changing the rules from fintech to didi to video games, every couple of days it seems like there is a new set of rules in china tech. how does qualcomm work in that environment? cristiano: i have something else to say. our china business has been great. we have a fast growing a stable china business. the number of partners in china for qualcomm is increasing. we have always been partners with them in the mobile industry. we saw companies growing with the 5g transition.
it just became the number two cell phone, smartphone manufacturer in the world. we now have 10 customers in china. the number of partners in qualcomm continues to expand. we are very fortunate to have a relationship with china that may be a model of what stability looks like. china respects the intellectual property of qualcomm, our license, and we are generating growth for us and for chinese partners and we expect that to continue. matt: in terms of the broader global growth mixture, this rebound has been hampered a little bit by the resurgence of the delta variant. how does it look to you? cristiano: we are fortunated to be -- fortuned to be in the technology space. what the pandemic debt, from work from anywhere, the transformation of the home, and
the acceleration of digital transport -- transformation because the companies want to connect, has been a boom for technology companies. we all want to get out of this pandemic. it is overdue for us having to get out of the pandemic. the reality is some of those technology transformations are here to stay. connectivity is becoming essential. we are going to continue doing teams and zooms for a long time. matt: thanks so much for your time. cristiano amon talking to us about sticky technology, hopefully some relief in the chip space by the end of the year as well as being content with their position in china. jonathan: great work, as always. the importance of talking to a chipmaker at an auto meeting. lisa: that says everything.
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♪ jonathan: live from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance" this tuesday morning. wall street getting back to futures, basically unchanged. on the nasdaq, -.1%. a similar move on the russell. off the back of two weeks of gains on the s&p 500. muted price action after the weekend. let's get to the bond market. three numbers to think about. $58 billion of tenure notes coming later. $38 billion coming tomorrow. $24 billion coming after that. a tent of supplies for the week. we are up about four basis points. 197.64. following that downside surprise
on the payrolls report on saturday -- on friday. around 21 basis points. the yield curve at the long end, tens and 30's. yields picking up a little bit more. look out for the supply for the week. look out for the ecb. euro-dollar, german investment confidence, the survey, if you follow that. euro-dollar, 118.63. basically unchanged. we will talk a ton more about. lisa: one of the more interesting meetings of the ecb as they plan to talk about their plan to taper. thank you so much. this is the interview i have been looking forward to for a long time. adam tooze, columbia university professor, what we saw the past couple of years in terms of the economy post crisis. now he comes out with "shut down, how cold it shook the economy."
in some ways, you are the preeminent historian of fast moving current financial history and i am wondering how difficult it was for you to get your arms around the shut down and reopening that still has beguiled economists to this day? adam: writing history in real time is a risky business. i do not expect this book to last forever. we will start with the main event and the main event is the news story that the public is not aware of to the extent that they need to be and it goes directly to the market you were talking about, the u.s. treasury market. that is what we need to put across. the incredible tremor resolve in the most important financial market, the u.s. treasuries. it was chaos in march of 2020. there is an effort to think through from their these stabilization effort that succeeded to an extent, but also
its limits. this is one dimension of the crisis we could get our hands around. what about the rest? lisa: let's elaborate on that. what does the public not appreciate with respect to the seismic shift we saw in march 2020 in terms of the ramifications of what the federal reserve did? adam: the money was going the wrong way. in a panic like that, you want the money to go somewhere safe and the place that we think of safe is tenure treasury, 30 year treasury. american government ious. the problem was even those were selling and the markets stopped functioning. you basically could not liquidate the thing that you count on being liquid in your portfolio. that led to a chain reaction. that has burned through to the extent it was threatening to do. we did not have a map for that to rain -- terrain.
at a rate that vastly exceeds what we saw in 2008. jonathan: we have had a massive policy response in the last 18 months. how would you characterize the compare and contrast between what the united states has done and what china did? adam: it is surprising this time around. you go back to 2008, china is the big actor, the surprise actor. it really turned the tables of the western world with the giant fiscal stimulus, which was a weird blend of back lending. this time around, the chinese contained the academic so much -- the epidemic so much earlier, the chinese response is more muted. they are more successful containing the epidemic. the u.s. is hyperactive and not just on the monetary side, on
the fiscal side, leading to the huge supply of bonds you are referring to a minute ago. jonathan: is there a blueprint for how we deal with the next crisis and how -- can we compare china with the united states, an authoritarian regime with a democracy? adam: we have to find a way forward in the west. those comparisons are helpful. we need to understand china in the world, our biggest mistake, which was imagining their problem, they would have to solve it their way. a disastrous miscalculation. as to the actual solutions, we have to do it our way because the system is so different. we have to think about how we multiply the kind of change which we did display, think about vaccine development programs, the financial policy response to other areas, which is where we really are lacking in the ability to organize a collective reaction to a
disaster like this. kailey: when you talk about the monetary policy response in your book on my you call it an emergency reaction of the most radical kind and pose the question, what was now a normality. can we ever return to normal monetary and fiscal policy or is the role of central banks forever changed? adam: that is a rhetorical question. i think probably not. the message of the book is, the final line of the book is "we ain't seen nothing yet." that is the crucial take away from this. we know the risks of climate change and how complicated those are going to be to cope with. we have to let go of the idea of the 1990's, 1980's independent central bank with a clear separation of fiscal and monetary policy. that has not been our world since 2008. in 2019 before the crisis, it
was obvious how easy the ecb for the fed could pull back. they could rain in interest rates a little bit. the ecb was doing mini qe even in the fall 2019. kailey: you also talk about how 2020 was a year of exhilaration in so many trends and how it is a moment in the process of escalation and the great acceleration is going to continue. looking at that from a labor market lens, how we arrived sooner at structurally lower participation, specifically i am thinking of the u.s. economy, but in general? adam: i think the u.s. has a particular problem. you compare the u.s. to others, really bizarre historic chains with japanese female labor market what training above that in the u.s.. there is some long issues that american society has to think about the policy it is changing because it directly ties up with
the social justice piece. the low participation rates that show up in these, cold numbers for low participation as men in primates are a system of social dysfunction. this is an issue that has to be addressed in things like the criminal justice system to education to the rollout of high quality vocational training for a whole sector of the population. that is where those solutions have to be found. lisa: to tie this together, when you say you ain't seen nothing yet, are you talking perhaps about a bond buying by the federal reserve, negative interest rates, or a combination of everything that comes together in modern monetary theory on the fiscal side, working with the federal reserve? adam: it is all of those things. the really harsh lesson that this crisis taught us is that printing the checks is the easiest part of this. the mmt folks are writing the checks we can afford and actually do come about the problem is actually doing the things we need to do.
figuring out how to do the infrastructure. figuring out how to do adequately scaled vaccine programs and organizing the politics around that because actually doing things in a society that is complex like in the united states depends on functional politics. jonathan: let's tie this up. we talked about a difficult -- different political system, china going one way, the united states going another. we talked about china becoming more like the west and what surprised me personally is how much some countries in the west are starting to behave like china. i look to australia every morning almost in shock at some of the things they are doing. what is your response, your reaction to what has happened in the west and how some of these countries have responded, may be more in the trades of an authoritarian regime than one you would expect from a democracy? adam: it is a trend that is alarming. we all accepted prohibitions and
restrictions on are activities that would have been unthinkable two years ago. the fact that we are not in the same studio would have been surprising. it may be due to politics. if you look at the track record of 2020, the magic bullet, the thing that gets us out of jail is technology. i say that not in the sense of techno-optimists booster, but as a desperate last resort. that is the one thing that works for us. the question has to be how serious are we about that science push because if you look at the spending ticket, we are not even in the ballpark in the magnitude necessary for that would indicate that we are serious about these problems, be it climate, pandemic risks. we need to be spending billions of dollars. i do not even know how you would do that. that is our problem. jonathan: such a good final point. let's catch up soon. adam tooze of columbia
university, professor and author of "shut down, how cold it shook the world's economy -- how covid shook the world's economy." lisa: i find that interesting, the idea of central bank and glen ford at a time when they have already printed a lot of cash. they have already extended the balance sheet. what comes next? ? negative interest rates, a balance sheet to infinity? jonathan: what comes next, we will discuss this pandemic with dr. amesh adalja of johns hopkins. lisa: graceful. i'm just saying. jonathan: i know you are just saying. yields up by four basis points. from new york city, good morning. with lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene will be back with us on thursday. in new york, this is bloomberg.
ritika: president biden meets -- needs democrats in congress to give him a boost on his economic agenda. there are any chances of that happening anytime soon. progressives and moderates are at odds over the size of the spending package. meanwhile, a tobacco over raising the debt limit. it is one of the most contentious issues. the yuko -- the u.k. has extended trade periods. british officials want the eu to rewrite a part of the deal that keeps norman island in the block area. the biden administration has approved financial aid for areas of new york and new jersey devastated by flooding. the remnants of hurricane ida caused tens of millions of dollars in damages to public infrastructure and property in the region. more than 40 people died in the storms and more than 1000 homes were damaged. bitcoin faces the biggest yet in its industry. el salvador becoming the first
country to adopt it as legal tender. about $20 million. the question is whether a significant number of people want to do business with bitcoin alongside the u.s. dollar. aluminum traded near the highest since 2011 following a military coup in guinea. the west african nation is a producer of bauxite, a key ingredient in the metal. china has bought more than half of its bauxite from guinea. existing agreements will be honored. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. ritika gupta i am -- i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.
answer because we do not know the data yet for kids under 12 and hopefully we will have some of that data and the fda will be able to share it transparently. jonathan: that was joshua of johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. good morning, alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i am jonathan ferro. this tuesday morning, equity futures are down about two, but basically unchanged on the s&p 500. yields are higher by four basis points. that is a steeper yield curve off of the back of a downside surprise and jobs report. we started this morning having a discussion about whether we are downgrading the importance of september already. this is a quote from continental over the weekend at the munich autoshow, "the chip supply shortage and rising prices were on the automotive industry for all of 2021 and we thought q3 will be the start of the story getting better."
i heard this morning from one auto company, the path is into 2023. lisa: there was an interview in the "financial times" with one of the port operators who said there is too much consumer demand as a result of all the stimulus checks. that needs to stop in order for the supply chain disruptions to get righted. that is shocking and goes to the slowdown point of consumer demand slows. jonathan: you get that tone with francine, with matt, that when you speak to some of these leaders, that the story of the end of 2021, may be going into 202023. kailey: for even further down the road. the ceo of volkswagen said we could be looking at chip shortage's for years to come because he talked about the internet of things and these cars are becoming so high tech, they require so many chips that there is always going to be that demand for them and until supply can catch up to that, there will be shortages for a lot longer
than the next couple of months. jonathan: let's bring in the doctor, dr. amesh adalja. i want to go to the basic question. how bad are things right now in this country? dr. adalja: it depends on what state you are in. we have seen a two track pandemic of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. the pandemic of the vaccinated is not a thing. what we have developed is a regional threat from covid-19 and it is not the same system threat it was. icus in the northeast are in a very different position than an icu in texas or mississippi. that has to do with how many high-risk people have been vaccinated or have immunity from infection. icus are not under stress in the northeast, but they are under real stress when it comes to florida, texas, and we have this cluster, these states from texas to georgia that comprise most of the hospitalizations and while
the numbers are high, they are really clustered their rather than spread out across the country the way they were in the winter. lisa: we are seeing record numbers of children being hospitalized that has to do with this most infectious variant. what is the data on whether they are getting sicker from this variant? dr. adalja: this -- there is no evidence that delta variant makes any child more secure and there may be more increased hospitalization rates, but that has not been replicated in every study. for children, it is the fact that there is a more contagious variant, children are back to their activities and they are getting infected and that delta variant will find you if you are unvaccinated. children have lower vaccination rates, even among the children who are eligible to be vaccinated and those under 12 or ineligible to be vaccinated. lisa: we are talking about booster shots recommended, however there is a question of whether this is a three shot vaccine, not necessarily two shots and a booster. dr. adalja: for the immunocompromised, it is a three
shot vaccine. for those that are healthy, this is something we are debating. we do not see strong data that props the need for a third dose -- prompts the need for a third dose. yes, antibody levels can climb, but that refers to a risk that can be ameliorated by getting a vaccine. the threshold for a vaccine is people who have breakthrough infections landing in the hospital. that is not happening among healthy individuals. the problem we have in the united states will not be solved by third doses. they will be solved by first and second doses. kailey: given the number of people who have not gotten there first or second dose of a vaccination, how much room is therefore the case curve to continue to climb or are we nearing it to -- hearing a peek -- nearing a peak?
dr. adalja: delta 10 to affect in the given area. we are going to see cases continue to increase. that is to be expected. the cases are going to be somewhat decoupled from hospitalizations with younger people getting infected, younger people who are not vaccinated. we may see a different timeline in different states. it seems that the worst in terms of cases over in places like mississippi and texas. they will take some time and we will continue to see death rise. jonathan: the president called this the pandemic of the unvaccinated. some people may say something has been going on here. do you think calling it a pandemic of the unvaccinated captures what is going on? dr. adalja: it exactly captures what is going on. if you look at the states that have the lowest vaccination rates, that is where they are in the most trouble. unvaccinated people are spreading it. it is hard to sift through and
there are a lot of statistical paradoxes were older people tend to be vaccinated more than younger people and when you look through all that data, and this is why the u.s. wants the raw data. vaccines are actually working. break through infections that are mild, that are like the common cold, often the result of aggressive testing, are not that significant. if we are chasing mild illness in fully vaccinated individuals, there is no way to stop this pandemic because we will be continuing to do that. the goal is to make it unable to cause serious disease, hospitalization, and death and that is what the vaccines are doing and are data in the united states bears that out in a few sift through the israeli data, you will see that you look at the statistics there and see exactly what is happening. jonathan: we appreciate your expertise this morning. dr. amesh adalja of johns hopkins capturing the difference of the u.s. and the u.k. right now. many people have used the u.k. model as a model to say that the
u.s. needs to face quickly. 18% of americans sick the five and older are not fully vaccinated. there is a strong suggestion that that difference of 5% and 18% makes a big difference. lisa: that is basically what dr. adalja was saying. it captures the state of play and you say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated becomes -- because it comes down to the unvaccinated rate. when we start talking about something other than the hospitalization rate, if there is no longer that stress on doctors and nurses, that is when we know we are actually at the end and we are not there yet. jonathan: hopefully we are getting closer. kailey, how many days since we have had a 5% correction? more than 200. before you -- before i could complete the question. lisa: -- kailey: continuing to climb that
wall of worry. is it predicated on the bed not making a move this month, may be pushing it out further onto the tail end of the year. jonathan: yields are up four basis points. the curve is steeper. equities are down and the s&p unchanged. for audience worldwide, as wall street gets back to work, this is bloomberg.
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>> the whole economy is broken. we can't find the labor we want and the disruption. >> it's not surprising momentum is slow, it is surprising it is lumped into this quarter >>. >>it is not an economy moving to a higher sustained level of growth. nothing structurally has changed. >> it is almost a market saying the fed is exiting no matter what. >> the most important thing not to lose sight of is that tapering is not tightening. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures unchanged on the s&p