tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 7, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT
the whole economy is broken. we can't find the labor we want and the disruption. >> it's not surprising momentum is slow, it is surprising it is lumped into this quarter >>. >>it is not an economy moving to a higher sustained level of growth. nothing structurally has changed. >> it is almost a market saying the fed is exiting no matter what. >> the most important thing not to lose sight of is that tapering is not tightening. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures unchanged on the s&p 500.
we've downgraded september. lisa: the importance and expectation for growth, as well as how clear a read we will get on the labor market, returning in a way that remedies the frictions we are seeing. if you talk about record highs and the incredible momentum behind the s&p, when didst the market reflect the economy? -- does the market reflect the economy? jonathan: jonathan -- said the economy is still broken and he is bullish. lisa: is the reason people are so bullish is because the fed will -- pad companies in the s&p 500. jonathan: what we don't even talk about anymore, d.c. and the fiscal effort in washington. it barely comes up and it is not on the radar. kailey: we also have congresspeople still on their extended researchers -- recess. the tax ways and means committee
will start working on that language this week and we are getting commentary out of the likes of joe manchin who is not on board and thinks the price tag is too high. there is the question of whether you can agree to the amount and how you pay for it, and what will we see in terms of tax sites that hikes -- hikes. jonathan: extended recess, i thought summer was over. lisa: all of washington, d.c. jonathan: can they wear white when they come back? can they do that? futures on the s&p 500 totally unchanged, really mutant price action as we kick things off. with the exception of the bond market, yields are higher by four basis points but the long end, tends, twos, 30's, a steeper curve. the 10 year 1.3 630. threes, tends, and 30's. lisa: you wonder how high that can climb.
create more action in the s&p perhaps, more downward sentiment. what i'm looking at is what is going on in germany, in munich, not frankfurt. the chancellor is kicking off the iaa mobility trade show, not an auto show but mobility show people looking at chips. what is interesting is the likes of the qualcomm ceo is the delays of the costs and the shipping. the disruption is not going away, and how long this will last and what it means in terms of output and prices for these cars. i know you all are following this closely, bitcoin is becoming a legal tender in el salvador. not sexy, but dangerous, but sexy but untested but on -- and tolerated jonathan: your point was better. lisa: imf said it was
potentially very risky so i was kind of putting them together. i find this interesting because the remittances is a big issue for el salvador, people working in the u.s. trying to send money home. how do you deal with the fact that it is costly and time-consuming to go through banks? there is a need for an international mechanism of trade and capital. president biden is planning to speak on store damage in new york and new jersey at 4:00, interesting to see how he pushes forward after the disappointing job report, and talking about the enhanced unemployment benefits this week at a time of weakening growth. how much will he try to pitch the need for the three point $5 trillion reconciliation bill even as the likes of joe manchin pushback? jonathan: luke kaw asking the important questions -- who had the worsta?
former bloomberg cross asset reporter, who had the worst summer, equity bears or the new york mets? luke: both were victims of seasonality at the equity bulls managed to over come some of that. jonathan: a good answer and a professional one. remind me while you remain committed to the cyclical story in this equity market. luke: there's a lot of reasons, and one is how efficiently the market was able to price this kind of deceleration in the second derivative in growth, and the nature of it being asia centric to a large extent. what we see going forward is although we have had the peak bank in growth, the top rate of growth is behind us, for two of the world's largest economies, the u.s. and china, it is likely if not probable that growth accelerates in q4 from q3, as
delta becomes less of an issue for mobility and in china, as some of the measures to support growth start to kick in or become more visible and evident. that's a key part of the story. we hope and think we will get more cross asset collaboration for the cyclical story in the form of yields. you've seen that in europe trying to drive the move, and u.s. 10 year yields look to have bottomed. that looks to lend more support towards cyclical assets based on the correlation. final thing is as we look ahead to not just this year but next year, we are so conditioned in markets to look at any period of above trend growth as almost by necessity before we get dragged down to something resembling trend. i don't think investors fully
acknowledged the next two years of growth will be better than anything we got -- lisa: the import/export data reached record levels and they are beginning to import more than people were expecting, even though there has been the delta variant growth in certain places. it is being interpreted by some as companies and factories stockpiling inventory ahead of the winter season. what's your interpretation that perhaps gives you faith in this growth story? luke: first of all, that's something that needs to happen and something we've been banging the table for a while, companies told us they would use any soft patch in demand seasonally to rebuild inventory, so the fact that that has happened is not surprising. it is something that we would expect. in terms of the forward growth story and transient and inventory building, if you look
at the "disappointing" nonfarm payrolls report, you have the aggregate paycheck growing by almost 10% per year. absent that, all the transfers you've gotten over the past 18 months, still an incredible amount of growth that will leave the u.s. consumer essentially in line with the trendline of what would have happened if you extrapolated the pre-pandemic pace. still a lot of dry fuel for consumption and still a lot of fundamental improvement in the labor market that i would suggest does make you believe, you can believe the story, it will last a lot longer. i concede that one thing we are paying close attention to, if you have two charts that would define and describe the year it would be how much forward eps keeps getting revised up and how much it continues to surprise during earnings season. one thing that bears monitoring is during the q3 earnings time, if you are discerning at the
start of every quarter and seeing how much global earnings are revised up, by this point in the quarter, this is the slowest since q4 2020, the time that this part of the pandemic was laying on activity. the keyword is revised up. that underpins the equity market . it has a lot of fundamental grounding, even in a "broken economy or cup -- "broken economy." kailey: ongoing supply chain and inflationary pressures mean higher input costs for companies. what gives you faith they will continue to pass those costs on in routine margins? luke: that's another good question and a big threat to the market. we've seen in some markets versus others, with higher inflation, are more able to sustain margin. they are the ones you suspect might come under stress next
because other markets have already faced a certain degree of margin pressure, or inability to sustain margins. if you are worried about margin pressure going forward, that probably augers taking a stance of ex-u.s. equities versus u.s. equities. the tax issues that you have alluded to are more negative factors. jonathan: if you want a passing dig at the red sox before you go. luke: i can't shoot a man when he is down. jonathan: that is a dig in and of itself. lisa: fantastic. jonathan: ubs asset management. let's go to the news from punch ball. democrats appear to back a corporate rate boost to 25%, from 21%, instead of the move the president pushed for to 28%. kailey: we are talking about three percentage points, but
that is still a hike, and not just corporate tax rate hikes we are talking about. we are looking at a higher capital gains tax. democrats are considering other forms of taxes including on the salaries of corporate executives for excess pay. as we look at the 3.5 billion dollar budget reconciliation, we have to pay attention to the composition. jonathan: it is a big effort in washington. lisa: but 3.5 trillion dollar package, will it really be $3.5 trillion? if you don't get the whole thing but you also get the offsets, how much growth do we get? jonathan: i will go with lower, if that helps. lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz -- "bloomberg surveillance," stating the obvious. unchanged in the s&p 500, yields are higher by four basis points.
that was my best tom keene impression. lisa: you are really filling the role. jonathan: from new york city, radio, and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: there was a big jump to a record $294 billion. global demand from the u.s. and europe, retailers brought forward their christmas shopping. boris johnson long risk a major fight -- will risk a major fight with his conservative party to reform social care and is likely to confirm plans for a tax increase, despite lands not to do so. in germany, the national election is less than three weeks away and support for angela merkel's conservative bloc has fallen to a record low
level of 19%. she is leading off and the bogus dog -- in the bundestag. u.s. attorney general merrick garland is promising to protect women in texas seeking abortion. one of the most restrictive laws in the nation as the supreme court declined to block the law, which bans abortion more than six weeks into a pregnancy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
agenda, but it is not abnormal for this to happen in a legislative process. we are full steam ahead trying to get our legislative -- legislation passed. jonathan: on abc over the weekend, from new york city, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, i am jonathan lines -- jonathan ferro. unchanged on the s&p 500. 1.3681, yields up. would you throw a line between the bond market and the nasdaq, just to soften the touch on the nasdaq? lisa: that could be a piece of it and another piece could be what was reported on punch ball. i don't want to make too much of basis point moves, but corporate taxes hitting big tech more than other country has companies. -- companies. jonathan: democrats support raising the tax rate to 25%.
let's have that conversation now. let's start there, 25%, not 28%. it is widely known. joe: it could change about 10 more times. i'm struck by the preliminary nature of this. committees will not get to work for real until this week in the house. we will go with 25%, if that brings people to the table, a member and that we were talking last week about taxing potentially stock buybacks, and even unrealized capital gains with regard to some of the wealthiest americans. democrats, if they don't get a higher number than they need, they will find other ways to generate more money. we .5 trillion dollars is a lot to come up with and we are not sure what it will be spent on -- 3.5 trillion dollars is a lot to come up with. jonathan: when we talk about democrats, we are often talking about one, joe manchin.
if they open the negotiations with him, what is it? joe: the most powerful man in washington, but he is not alone. kyrsten sinema, the moderate democrat, has been saying the same thing. too rich for my blood. you heard from cedric richman and ron klain, the chief of staff of the white house, they believe joe manchin is pliable. there's some leverage, called the bipartisan infrastructure deal. joe manchin was a senator who helped craft this. nancy pelosi, now you know why, is not touching that until reconciliation comes through the house. we will have a big old collision of things and deadlines hitting at the end of this month. if joe manchin doesn't vote for that reconciliation bill, he doesn't get the bipartisan infrastructure victory that he has been taking a victory lap on. he wants to say, i've got your roads, bridges, broadband,
things that are badly needed. lisa: labor secretary marty walsh, when he was on with jon ferro and joe as well, basically saying something similar that there was this flexibility, or didn't seem it was necessarily a hard line. i wonder if the mood is changing in washington in terms of the ability to pass through any kind of stimulus. i think about how it was not even a discussion to enhance unemployment benefits, even though some people say we are heading into a weakening batch. joe: you put your finger on the most unreported story of the day, of the week, should be on the front page of every newspaper or new site. 7.5 million people losing full on benefits, 3 million people losing the $300 enhanced weekly benefit. this will have an impact. you see this downgrade on the forecast from goldman. this is the stuff people are worried about. it will perhaps send people back to work but ding spending.
there is the spending and the human side of this. i parked in front of a homeless encampment where people have pitched tents to live in and there are worries they will become more common, and the wealth gap will become more common just as they are debating raising taxes and spending $3.5 trillion. kailey: the part of the equation that is the spending part, does that become easier to swallow with unemployment benefits rolling off and the weak payrolls? joe: that's what progressives would tell you, we need this now, when they think it is badly overdue. childcare is part of that in the reconciliation bill, that they say people would get back to work now. we had that disappointing number on friday. i spoke with secretary walsh after that report. will people start going back to work when the benefits expire, and in the states where we've seen that happen, about half the
states, there's no evidence, according to the labor secretary, that that has happened. he likes to ask, is 300 bucks enough for you to stay on the couch? for a lot of people, that is no. lisa: putting aside the politics of the moment or spending more or less, it seems there's a definitive reaction from d.c., less fiscal stimulus and support than previously thought. if we talked about a bigger price tag for the reconciliation bill, we are talking about paying for it with respect to taxes in a whole host of ways. does this tell people what they need to know in terms of a willingness to support or add fiscal support to this economy? joe: potentially, but keep in mind this could change shape over the next couple of weeks. this needs to happen in the next couple of months if nancy pelosi sticks to her self-imposed deadline, and that could move.
the question about stimulus versus spending on infrastructure is a real one as we worry about inflation and have no idea what is going on in the labor market. confusion makes it difficult for the white house and congressional democrats, the leadership, to answer these questions. jonathan: what is the deadline that is self-imposed, i share that feeling. washington correspondent and host of "sound on." let's go to the goldman call -- "the strong consumption growth appears to be much higher. they are weighing on q3 growth and fading fiscal stimulus" -- that's the key line -- will both be headwinds in the medium-term. lisa: some states ended their unemployment benefits early. it showed that not only was there not a material uptick in people entering the workforce,
but there was a material reduction in consumption. people spent less when i had money -- less money coming in. that is what i think a lot of people are worried about in the administration, but the fact that they cannot get traction on this extension or the discussion is politically toxic, tells you a lot. jonathan: goldman goes from 5.7 to six, no one talks about 22. 4.6 to 22, 4 .6 is in the luke kawa camp that growth will be decent for the next few years. kailey: i've heard you say the last couple of weeks, not growth being lost but deferred, extended into 2022, instead of seeing the bulk of it in the third and fourth quarter. the idea that the delta variate impact is transitory and consumption may be pushed into next year. jonathan: delayed and not derailed is something you will
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jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene is a way for a couple of days. i'm going to enjoy this. the s&p 500 totally unchanged, and the nasdaq is unchanged. in around and move higher by almost a 10th of 1% but the equity market, we have talked about the story, we are downgrading the month of september, the importance of this month, just met to be the month that supply constraints are starting to heal. are they going to? we are talking about 2022 and maybe 2023, so inflation could persist come and growth starts
to decelerate, something we need to get our heads around. what does it mean for the bond rockets? yields are higher friday, and yachts -- yields are high this morning also. what does this equal? it equals a steeper curve. we topped out at 157 on march 31 and now 115, 63 on tens, and that gap starting to spread a little wider. what does that mean for the market? >> it will be interesting to see how this shapes out. as for what is moving this morning, your biggest mover at least in terms of the large caps , that is match group come up about 13%, about 12% in the free
market. we got the announcement that it would be added to the s&p 500, so folks try to front room -- run that conclusion. also moving today, spotify, and interesting upgrade, talking a lot about how the company is now outpacing youtube premium, up about 4% today. keep an prices, -- on aluminum prices. this is causing a lot of concerns. there are a lot of concerns about what this could mean for aluminum prices going forward. a bunch of downgrades here in the health care space, j&j been cut to neutral, effectively now. there are concerns about the
long-term and about exclusivity. i want to point out the second screen, these shares up about 112%, and this stock rallied about 30% last week. this is the cybersecurity company that was founded by the u.s. security general and it went public last month, at a lot of the retail traders have gravitated to this right now. this is a stock where analysts expect revenue for the year at about $29 million, shares about 112%. jonathan: i love that, for reasons unknown. was seo and into close later this afternoon alongside the rest of the team. for this market on friday, it was all about the estimates. arrange was wide, wide, wide. we got to 35, do we call that
the best estimate are the low estimate? lisa: i would say the best estimate. however, i think this goes to your question come how much are we looking at the actual headline number, at the revisions in the three-month average, which still show a pretty decent question -- picture. jonathan: i will go with the least worst. what did you see the others did and do you think it will can -- persist? jim: i would say it is the least worst as well, and our goal is to be the least worst. in terms of leading up to it, i would say the daily homebase numbers in particular have been on the weak side, and certainly that was consistent with a pretty sharp slowing the leisure and hospitality category. it does look like that sector
slowed pretty sharply. there was a lot of question about employment in the state and local government and certainly starting the new school year and that will be the issue for september again, but the weight of evidence is there has been significant slowing. even to 35 of course by pre-covid sanders -- standards would be pretty strong. jonathan: the equity full said this is a blip you can look for through. is this something we can look through or the beginning of something we need to pay attention to? jim: it was unrealistic to expect that we would get that for an extended period, so i think there is a downshift. monthly numbers tend to jump around a lot, there is a bit of a tendency for the august numbers to be revised later. do we see anything to the last couple of weeks to suggest that
september would be a lot better? no. we are assuming in our forecast that for the extended basis we are more like 400,000 a month or thereabouts, better than to 35, but i cannot say there's any hard evidence that september is going to be better. lisa: does that support the idea of a slower slow down then perhaps people had been expecting? are you downgrading your full-year forecast? jim: it is not just the parallel numbers that have been a bit weaker. consumer spending in particular has slowed down since march. retail sales surged in march, and then they have flattened out since then. there are some supply issues for sure with autos but it looks like the boost from the fiscal stimulus has peaked. it looked like the third quarter slowed a bit faster than we thought so we just marked down
our number 24% from 7%. that does result in 2021 being cut to 5.2% from 6%, so we have cut our 2021 numbers. i think part of this is delta and the covid wave, but part of it is the feeding of the fiscal stimulus. lisa: there is this question of a record number of job openings, and we will get another read on that tomorrow. why are we not seeing more people enter the labor force especially as we get the rolloff of these jobless benefits? i don't understand anything a lot of people are asking what if there is something else going on and they are being replaced by technology or other solutions? jim: that is the big question
and there has been a lot of debate over how much of the weakness on the supply side has been because of overly generous unemployment benefits. we think that has been a factor and i think covid is still a factor. a lot of people don't want to go back to work because of covid and it has caused issues with getting childcare. and there was a lot of stimulus, i think people are not as in need of a job immediately because of all of the savings from the stimulus. that does not apply to everyone, but there is a number of factors. the benefits are expiring this week and some states already saw them expire and there has been talk about it is not clear that even in those states they already expired that there was a sudden surge in supply and labor, but it is hard to disentangle that. we expect that the supply side will come on more and more. we do not think the rate will say as though as it is now. meanwhile, we think things are
starting to cool a bit, i think some of the imbalances will resolve. there is still strong supply demand for labor and there should be argument that we should get recently strong employment numbers going forward. the sicko how different is the equation for the fed this morning that was at this time on friday? jim: i think it keeps the debate going. the signal has been that the tapir is going to come this year. there are three meetings that this year. our interpretation has been it is not september, the wording has not been urgent enough that it will be either november or december. our view is december, and to the extent you're getting weaker numbers, i think that helps the case for holding off more until december. obviously will get another implement report before the november meeting, but we think it does not stop them from tapering. if the economy was truly
collapsing, that is a different group -- story, but if you are getting gdp growth and implement is still coming down, you look at the numbers, i think there is enough improvements for them to move ahead with tapering trade the tightening question that is completely different. i think that would argue for being patient when tapering concludes in late 2022, and they will sit back for a while before they actually raise rates. jonathan: good to catch up. jim o'sullivan, and some news coming out of the u.k., boris johnson announcing a levy of 1.25% of incomes to help pay for post-covid operations and said he will raise the dividend text to help on health care as well paid lisa, this has been quite controversial. not the funding of the nhs, of
course, more about how this will be funded and who is going to pay this tax to the prime minister says a new levy will share the cost between business and individuals. lisa: and this does come down to who and some bearing the brunt of this over the u.s., people focusing more on corporations and also sink the capital gains tax rate the pound is sort of at a though here versus the dollar, so it seems to be effective. jonathan: the prime minister addressing parliament. from new york city, good morning. i am jonathan ferro, your equity markets basically unchanged. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the president biden needs a boost for passing an economic agenda, and this
threatens the chances of this happening soon. the parties are at arms over the size of the package. meanwhile there is a battle over raising the debt limit. one of the most contentious and choose -- issues of exit, the grace. . officials what the e.u. to rewrite a part of the deal that effectively keeps northern island in the barrier. aluminum trading in the highest since 2011 following a military coup in guinea, the nation is a major producer of the key ingredient in the metal. china reports more than half of its aluminum supply from guinea. existing mining agreements will be honored. this firm is hoping to replicate the success it is head over on wall street, the program is
aimed at recruiting blacks and females already working an eight other industries to the cabinet. the bank has had some people across the business. bitcoin faces the biggest test yet in its history, el salvador is becoming the first country to adopt it as legal tender. the question is whether a significant number of people want to do business with going when it circulates -- with bitcoin and it circulates alongside the american dollar. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
it like. we participate in growth in advanced technology, and china respects intellectual property, and we are generating growth for us and for chinese partners and we expect that to continue. jonathan: that is the ceo of qualcomm. china respects the ip of qualcomm and we are fortunate to have a relationship with china. that is a pr response from the ceo this morning with matt miller. lisa: dancing delicately at a time, when it comes to both social as well as business interests with china. i understand that. jonathan: we will move on. we will get back to it in a minute. not to the equity markets, yields are higher by four or five basis points. this curve is steeper and it is not just a u.s. centric move pd
can see it in europe and over in italy, and there will be a nurse conference -- news conference on thursday right here on bloomberg radio and on tv. this is where are stocks are headed today. steady gains on the s&p 500. what do the stories tell us? >> the data says we could be anywhere at the end of the year and it is specifically the first eight months for the s&p 500 being up more than 20% as it was this year. you have seen it happen 10 other times and it really is kind of a split, a substantial split in terms of gains and losses trade look at it this way, if you take all of the numbers and divide them, you end up with the loss of a bit more than 2%, but if you take the median and duet -- do that analysis, you end up with a gain of a bit more than
2%. you really kind of wonder where we are headed from here if you are just looking at periods like we had january through august. the deciding factor, it may be that we have been rising so steadily this year, 54 records already, one of the best years in terms of the number of all-time highs for the s&p 500, and on pace to be the best ever. that said, we have not had a 5% retreat from a high, a pullback, call it what you will, all year. you really don't see a lot of years for that is the case. i was looking at some numbers at truest securities, there is only been twice, 1995 and 2017, where you saw the s&p 500 not pullback
5% during the year. jonathan: thank you. david wilson, our stocks editor. a dream when in 1987 comes up and 1929 as well after 20% gains. what happens after 20% gains through august, 1929 down 32%, any comments? >> look, yet, we are going to have this massive crash, but i think we had adam our phenomenal guest earlier, and they gains have changed come and now what will be the policy response, and it comes to fiscal policy. jonathan: the game has changed. maybe that was too extreme. there are headlines, pouring billions into china is likely a
mistake, and that could damage the national security interest of the u.s. and other democracies. our guest joins us now for more on that. your take on that op-ed, which i have to say is more stte -- most read site -- >> this is one of the most dangerous enemies, george soros, but looked a lot of his concerns have been voiced already, shared by many. i will quote something from a ted lasso episode -- [indiscernible] for me i do not think like mutt -- blackrock pours billions into china endlessly, and more portly , the real yields in u.s. and europe, you got to get your yields somewhere, and china may offer some of that, so i think
that is probably something like rock is looking at. lisa: george you some lightning bolt words, but there is this question of the damage of international investors going into china at a time when they are embarking on something that feels a little bit like, i don't want to say a cultural revolution but that type of overall type of control by the top. how much do you see that affecting slows into china in the next couple of years? >> i agree, but this is about diversification, diversifying portfolios. i don't think we are sitting here blindly saying invest in chinese equities. this is saying investors globally have been underweight through china and this will be one of the largest economies globally so investors need exposure there. you take what the market gives
you come and when valuations decline as rapidly as they have in china, this is a good time to take that back. kailey: one of the sectors is the property sector and bank of america said if china does not step acting so aggressively and inflecting the kind of pain that has been seen elsewhere it will spread too far and that will undermine the china growth story. how large is that risk? >> there is another prominence -- prominent economists that back that up, and that would be pretty bad, so i lately agree with you. the big rating agency in china has downgraded -- the most in dept -- that is just crazy. there is more pain ahead and the property seki to -- sector, and
that might resonate through on the chinese economy. it is bullish for chinese bonds, because that implies cut rates to similar it growth. jonathan: thank you. always good to catch up. high yield notes in china, not the 12%, starting to talk about a contagion risk over the last couple of months and that is quite clearly bleeding through the rates at this moment. lisa this highs lights how they are taking a different approach, and they have taken a much more hands-on approach to this whole crisis and allowing default as they try to transition to a new routine. the u.s. a different story and you wonder if they allow contagion to continue. jonathan: have they taken it too far? i think some people might say we are already there. kailey: on the regulatory site, if china extends the crackdown,
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>> markets love this period of time where earnings growth is good. >> is almost the market saying that that is exiting no matter what. >> it is not surprising that momentum is low, just that it is all been lumped into this quarter. >> the most important thing is the emphasis that tapering is not tightening. >> the lesson that this has taught us is that printing checks is really the easiest part of this. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: yieldsre