tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 8, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT
♪ >> when you see good value come into the market like we saw earlier this year, stefan and by -- step in and buy. >> i think we are going to have to wait a bit longer to see what the fundamentals look like. >> i'm very nervous that some of those jobs will disappear. >> have we seen anything in the last couple of weeks to suggest that september is going to be a lot better? no. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance. >> good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us tomorrow. your equity markets, we're down those full points in the s&p 500. it is a no trauma wednesday morning. lisa: it feels like we are on
the precipice of something, and that seems to be the warning from morgan stanley, even citigroup as people look out at the bullish sentiment facing economics waning. jonathan: it is not a downgrade for equity exposure, is it? maintaining the story, in europe and japan, may be the story abroad is equally nonconstructive. >> this ultimately comes down to a valuation question. people are expecting earnings to do well, and people are expecting the growth to pick up again. this is a pause. a lot of people are talking more about buying the pause than they are about the consequences. jonathan: this has been a challenge for a long, long time. you can get your economics right, your market call right, and your macro very wrong. >> the economic and the market response have seemed entirely disconnected for some time now. i think also there's a
differentiation between what we are seeing in the u.s. and what we are seeing in japan. in the u.s., you have seen a really strong run of equity gains after the prime minister said he isn't going to be running again. there's optimism that his successor will bring more fiscal spending. in the u.s., part of what morgan stanley is talking is the fiscal spending and the economic agenda in congress. when that is a question mark, it makes the u.s. case more difficult to make. jonathan: here's your equity market. equity futures coming in. a single point on the s&p. not much to get excited about. into the bond market, yields at a couple of basis points. crude positive, up a little more than 1%. as we inched toward that ecb -- as we inch toward that ecb. >> let's talk about fundamentals.
the openings for the month of july, a new record high north of 10 million job openings in the u.s. economy as these frictions do persist. i am looking also at the participation rate and how much this really bleeds into a participation rate that just won't go back to where it was. bond sales continues. $38 billion of 10 year notes. $120 billion of u.s. debt this week. i'm very interested to hear what john williams has to say about the pace of the economic recovery, given the backdrop of delta, given the rolloff of some of the fiscal concerns. he is one of the big three in addition to jay powell. right now, the fed balance sheet, $8.3 trillion, a record, and probably going higher. jonathan: stay on that.
even if they do start to taper, even if they completely unwind, that stays exactly where it is. >> i'm struggling to understand this argument that the removal of accommodation is basically a tapering. it continues to expand, just at a slower pace. even though we do have economic growth to the highest pace. jonathan: the stock effect is huge. katie, even if they end qe, that balance sheet will be reinvested for a long, long time. katie: it is a question of whether or not they actually make a material difference to this equity market. i've heard you asked the question, what do you get for $120 billion per month that you don't get for $40 billion per month? the timing question is what difference does a september announcement make relative to a november or december 1? -- or december one? jonathan: everybody seems to be
saying this morning expect volatility. this is the line from citi. expect volatility. leadership becomes less clear at this time in the cycle and while the leadership will narrow, it can also be quite choppy. let's get to christine, regional head of investments for north america. why should we expect volatility? >> when we look at any cycle, when you are looking at the beginning of a cycle, that is where you see the strongest rallies, and we've seen that over the past 12 months. we've seen everything moving up and there have been periods of different leadership. very clear periods. now, the leadership isn't quite clear. one of the things that has investors very, very nervous, and why we're expecting volatility, is volatility in u.s. equity markets are at the lowest end of the 20 year range. and you can see this through the
market action that we've seen. we've not had one pullback in 2021. this has only happened twice since 1980. while we've had a couple pullbacks of about 3%, they've been bought very quickly. i think this has a lot of investors wondering, will receive see real life volatility rise? and will that put us into what is a pretty normal equity market? >> what is this the same equity market as 10, 20, 30 years ago? looking at the dominance of the big names, looking at the competition that is actually performed very differently depending on which sector you are looking at. can we get a broad-based, 5% drawdown given how much money and given how selective people are with respect to sector selection? >> it's a great point. when we are looking at the rally that we see, even year-to-date, there have been a lot of breakdowns. up until even recently, the
underperformance of small caps. when you look at what we've been through with the delta variant, almost like what we went through last year in terms of tech value really dominating the first half of the year. i think what the market is going to differentiate going forward, and this is where we are allocating in our portfolios, is equality. this becomes much more a conversation about those companies that have the ability to grow their earnings, grow their dividends. earnings are really going to drive this conversation and fundamentals going forward. >> you have a lot of other cause to get a little bit more defensive, but is it time to go to cash? >> we do not believe it is time to go to cash. there's multiple purposes of cash from an investor perspective. one, of course, have a safety net. but in terms of an investment right now, when we look at the inflationary pressures, this is
an asset that is guaranteed to lose money. if you want some tactical cash in your portfolio because you are there to buy the dip, you can confidently buy the dip, there is some value in that. what we are seeing in a lot of investor portfolios is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. this is no longer about an investment decision. this is someone trying to market time, which doesn't work in the short run, or the long run. jonathan: just to conclude, i want to make it really clear some of the things you're highlighting. lumber down 72% since may. chinese equities down 30% since the middle of february. u.s. small caps underperforming 20% since the middle of march. at the time of publishing, those numbers were super correct, and i'm sure they are about the same. what is the punchline? >> despite a lot of the central bank support and liquidity, markets are differentiating.
always bringing this back to actionable ideas and what we can do within our portfolios. this becomes a period of being selective. this is not a market where everything is going to go up. being selective not only in terms of the world you are in. but also in terms of security selection, because there will be winners and losers. jonathan: always good to catch up with you, thanks for being with us. lisa, that punchline, despite a lot of central bank support and liquidity, markets differentiating. >> they are differentiating at a very high evaluation. this is the key point. now, the key is to continue to differentiate at that very high evaluation level. not necessarily bring down valuations across the board. at a certain point, yes, central banks have propped everything up as much as they are going to. they are not going to take the punch bowl away. jonathan: the big reopening
trait is certainly inflated. the airlines back in spring and the airlines continued to have a difficult time. >> it is a question of whether or not a front ran the news in the first three months of the year. we saw those reopening players ripping higher and then they have really come off of those highs. it is a market that continually seems to get ahead of itself and for some of those reopening plays, it seems that came earlier rather than later. but as kristin bitterly was alluding to, small caps that was the consensus coming into this year just have not worked in the way that many people expected. again, that was an area of the market that has seen an incredible run-up. jonathan: and a tough time yesterday as well. do you think that is the trade for the brave right now? not just the airlines? katie touched on this. what we are witnessing right now, the data we are looking at is a reinforcement of what we've
already seen, or is it fuel for another leg of it? >> here's what i'm struggling with. a question that you asked yesterday when you were talking about is this a recovery delayed, or is this a recovery derailed? how long does the slowdown have to occur before there is some sort of a permanent affect on the economy? and airlines are number one, especially given all of their debt and the fact that they have to recover a whole host. jonathan: overwhelmingly, the reaction was what? down about one point on the s&p. i was told summer is over. this looks like summer. i'm not wearing a white shirt in summer. down two basis points. the fashion expert himself, tom keene, back tomorrow. >> with a 10 suit. -- tan suit.
jonathan: looking forward to that. from new york, this is "bloomberg." >> parliament is expected to vote on boris johnson's taxes on workers and companies. they will go towards paying for improved social care. the new revenue will help trim budget assets. in japan, the government reportedly has told the ruling coalition it will extend the coronavirus state of emergency in 19 regions. two other regions will be dealing with less strict virus measures. president biden warns that new york and new jersey have seen signs of worsening climate change. he said congress passing his public works bill would help build more community.
aluminum is inching toward the highest price in 13 years. back to in guinea is one reason -- that coup in guinea is one reason. and what was assumed to be apple's next big thing is suddenly in doubt. the company's top exec has been developing a self-driving car -- step away and the seven year history. global news 24 hours away -- thi.
we are now living in real time what the country is going to look like. we can't turn back very much, but we can prevent it from getting worse. jonathan: the president speaking in new jersey. he will speak again a little bit later this morning. lisa: 11:20, he is going to be talking about labor unions. interesting following that data we are going to be getting. jonathan: jonathan ferro, katie, tom keene tomorrow. not doing much at all today. unchanged on the s&p, unchanged on the nasdaq. bond market yields lower by a couple basis points. morgan stanley talking up policy. we can talk about monetary policy all day. let's talk about fiscal policy now down in dacey. jack, the battle over the taxes,
what does it look like right now down in washington? >> it is looking pretty tough. obviously, you heard senator manchin's comments recently about being skeptical about the $3.5 trillion top line. yesterday we got a sign of how difficult it can be to add up these numbers for democrats. the ways and means committee put out basically the spending half of their part of this bill that is the expansion of medicare, 12 weeks universal paid leave. they actually are bumping back the beginning of some of those benefits because if congress measures the cost in a windows, it would artificially minimize the cost that they would have to balance out the tax increases. they wouldn't even start benefits for the extension of medicare until 2028. that is kind of a sign that they are really trying to squeeze as much out of this bill as possible, even in may be slightly gimmicky ways when it
comes to how they measure the bill. have been put out there tax increase proposals -- they haven't put out there tax increase proposals yet. we are looking to see if they start off with the 28% corporate tax rate that biden has proposed. how quickly do they have to scale it back to something like 25%? clearly, what we are seeing so far is that it is very challenging for democrats to make the numbers add up and actually end up paying for all the expenditures. lisa: as the president tries to push these bills in his agenda through, he is speaking at 11:20 am on labor unions alongside marty walsh, a longtime labor member. and there is a question of how they are going to try to push worker power at a time of a record high number of job openings. this friction in the labor market, what are they doing on that front? >> i think the comments obviously are timely because of labor day recently. but, for one, the
administration, when you talk about the number of job openings, the administration did not push particularly hard on the issue of extra pay. the administration was actually the first among democrats to say we are really just going to allow extra unemployment insurance money to expire in september. we don't know if there is going to be much of an announcement today on labor unions and that kind of thing. obviously, the broader context of what the biden administration wants to accomplish, a pretty significant focus on increasing wages, potentially even at the expense of lowering the unemployment account. not exactly sure how significant the announcement will be today, but obviously the issue of unfilled jobs is going to be significant going forward.
lisa: perhaps it is not significant, however, he is trying to cater to a more progressive branch of the democratic party at a time when he is losing cloud pretty steeply with them -- clout. his approval rating has steadily declined especially after the afghanistan exit. how much does that affect the ability to get the agenda through at this point? >> it definitely hurts to see his approval rating drop at the time when he is trying to push this through because it could embolden some of the moderates who are pushing back against certain aspects of how democrats are pushing through bidens agenda. we saw that earlier with a group of house moderates fighting against the idea of tying the infrastructure bill and this reconciliation bill together. obviously, you see a lot of comments from senator manchin, some from senator kyrsten sinema. if you don't feel absolutely tied to president biden's political success, you have more reasons to grind her heels on the legislative agenda and push
for the things you want or maybe even just to slow down or minimize the scope of everything biden wants. this hasn't killed the democrat plans yet, but this is not a great time for approval ratings to be taking a dip. lisa: it is pushed forward may be invalid by hurricane ida and the destruction we've seen. i saw marine one fly right past my apartment building. he was talking about climate change, really pushing the need for some of this funding. >> rhetorically, that can play into both of these major bills, the need for infrastructure bill becomes a little more obvious given some infrastructure failings with hurricane ida. the climate measures are a significant focus for democrats. it also adds to the plate of what they have to accomplish in
the very near future. one, democrats want to pass the infrastructure bill, 3.5 trillion dollars bill or whatever it is going to end up being. two, they have to fund the government passed september 30, and now biden has requested not only funding for hurricane ida recovery, but funding for other natural disaster recoveries, other hurricanes over the last year and a half. wildfires, and additional funding for afghanistan to get people out of afghanistan is the attached that government funding measure. there is just more on their plate now than these two major things in the news. it could make a bit of a crowded congressional schedule. jonathan: and itis a lot on one man's plate, that is for sure. lisa, what would surprise you more? if they got something done, or didn't get anything done. lisa: if they didn't get the bipartisan stimulus, i would be surprised. frankly, i think the markets would, too. if they get something down on
the social spending side, it seems like it would be somewhat surprising. of course, how they paid for it really matters in terms of what the market effective rates jonathan: jonathan: are. when we have a surprise if they got something done, would it be a bigger surprise if we just slide through year-end, get a lot of things done, have an agreement over the debt ceiling, and move on? >> that would be a surprise if everything were to go that smoothly in washington over the next 60 days or so. morgan stanley certainly doesn't believe that it will. the question about whether they can get the plan done is not separated from the $1 trillion other social spending. the house has indicated that they won't let those things happen without each other. i don't know if i agree with lisa that i wouldn't be surprised to see the bipartisan bill not getting done if the democrats in the house can't get what they want. jonathan: not the first time i've been accused of painting a
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♪ jonathan: breaking news, summer isn't over. that's your headline, go back to bed. the equity market, the s&p 500, unchanged. futures on the nasdaq, unchanged. all-time high for the nasdaq, let's talk about that. our inability to beat the virus has affected big tech. netflix is on an absolute tera, apple on -- tear. apple on a four day winning streak. this morning, we had a little bit more weight to the rally in the free market. 3/10 of 1% on apple. netflix up. it is hard to reconcile with what has happened in the bond market more recently because yield have not been coming
lower, they have been going higher. yields lower friday, higher again on tuesday, and lower this morning by a couple of basis points. thursday, -- 30, we come in a little bit flatter this morning. it has been difficult to get a read on this bond market for a very obvious reason. difficult because we've had so much surprise. we see 30's tomorrow. >> there has been so much supply and there has been the cash to meet it. that has been the shocking aspect especially if you have the likes of the -- taking it. jonathan: go back to bed, you can listen to it on radio. lisa: can i go back to bed? jonathan: i could called in and talk to you and it will work on radio. maybe not so much on tv. let's get you those movers.
here's romaine. romaine: one of the relative lackers was actually tesla. slightly higher here. the latest data out of china, remember, it had some really awful months with the regards to domestic shipments from chinese factories in july. the latest numbers show a rebound in august. it is about a 44% change from investors starting to embrace this thing. still, well below this all-time high, but starting to get a little bit of momentum. keep an eye on analog devices. up about 2%. they cannot last month and they went higher on revenue. they are now revising that guidance even higher, up from a range of what was basically about 1.7-1 point $8 billion. now saying maccabee well above 2 billion.
also, announcing the 2.5 billion dollars accelerated stock buyback. and then you have the beauty products retailer down about 8%. the company basically coming out and saying that a secondary offering is going to close tomorrow for about eight cents below where the stock closed yesterday, catching investors buy surprise. it will be interesting to keep an eye on coinbase. shares fell yesterday with regard to bitcoin, but late last night, they disclosed that the fcc here in the u.s. actually issued a notice and threatened to sue them over a product where you can earn interest on your crypto holdings. it is a controversial practice that the sec has flagged before. coinbase has not said specifically if they would stop offering the product, but the chief legal officer basically said they were given the
opportunity to respond but said it would be "futile" because it did not understand the motivation. paypal holdings moving higher. this is a big japanese by now, play later. $2.5 billion deal. remember, jack dorsey's other company hand that $29 billion deal in australia. both of his companies, really moving into that model. much of netflix moving earlier. if it manages to hold the gains, which are only up about 2/10 of 1%, that would be the longest win streak on record. there have been no real catalysts here. some have turned bullish on this, berkeley talking about the company's foray into gaming and
saying maccabee a game-changer deeper into the year. jonathan: do you sense that is a macro story or a single name story? 11% move in eight days. romain: it appears to be more of a macro story. a lot of these names kind of fell out of favor because valuation -- i guess you can read into the possibility that these are defensive trades and less about the growth itself. it is hard to really know. this offers maybe a little bit of safety when you have this uncertainty. jonathan: thank you. lisa, what do you make of that? nasdaq, all-time highs. netflix, apple, very much back in vogue. lisa: the idea of the ones that cooled off, they had a pretty rough patch for a while as people looked past covid and said people are not going to be able to sit home watching movies anymore.
jonathan: are you suggesting people have been in their pajamas doing that? lisa: they are still logging on, but they are at their kitchen tables. jonathan: i never got to do that. the head of global debt and strategy. hard to reconcile the move we've seen in big tech with the move we've seen in the bond market. anything to see? >> absolutely. we saw a week number -- aweak number and it is very typical for the bear to move away from the taper. it is difficult to contemplate a scenario. we have a mountain of cash adding liquidity and it is risk on and it is rates off. that makes a degree of sense right now.
what i have seen is liquidity absolutely dampening the rates. the backend is more untethered. there is an interest in europe as well. payrolls gave us an extra kick higher in rates. lisa: there has been a record number of investment-grade bond sales. yesterday, 21 issuers came to market, all-time high. are you buying into this, or do you think that this is too good for the borrowers and not all that good for the buyers? >> it is fantastic for borrowers. a risk-free way to have lower bank spreads on the floor, exceptionally low. but the thing is, supply has not been an issue for this market for quite some time. there is a lot of cash put to work out there. we are seeing this in the sense that they are quite happy to
build enough cash positions and money bonds and investors are quite happy to buy the yields. anything that offers some yields it's being snapped up by investors. you saw yesterday the three year. lisa: obviously, you have had a lot of supply, but we are going to see less supply coming from the treasury over the coming months. we might start to see a reduction in that. how does that pair with a potential fed taper? >> the interesting nuance there is the debt ceiling in the sense that it issues bonds as we hit the debt ceiling. yes, there is a question to start supply. in terms of the level of rates, i can't imagine it is going to have a big impact. if it is going to have any impact, it is going to push
rates higher. in the moment, we are in a very low risk environment. you can buy practically anything and feel pretty comfortable about it. difficult to imagine much pressure, but some of the pressure. jonathan: great to catch up with you. friday, tuesday, into wednesday, high yield. this morning, just a little bit lower. also in europe, in germany. lisa: higher yields, but again, we are coming from such low places. -33 basis points. it is not discouraging people from borrowing and there is so
much money to soak up that supply. i am just wondering at what point there will be perhaps a hangover effect in corporate america continuing to borrow record amounts of debt. i understand we are deleveraging still. jonathan: it's pretty impressive. look at the numbers for the treasury. $38 billion in 10 years. direction of travel matches. these numbers have just been huge over the past year. lisa: and it just highlights the idea of cash sloshing around. i have a question for you. the ecb. if they come out and say they are going to start tapering, how big are the ripple effects? jonathan: it could be big. to some degree over the last 10 years, rates have been anchored by what has happened in europe. to some degree, if you have a big bet on high yields, that has got to be born out of what happened in europe.
for me, it is less about whether europe becomes more like the united states and starts to get high yields, and unfortunately, much more about whether the united states starts to become more like europe or japan. a whole range of issues. i think it is something mentioned recently that is really important. there is a window for the fed to do something. lisa: and if they do miss it, they won't have enough time to taper before they have to necessarily counteract. jonathan: and the ecb is going to be an economy that needs to be supported for a while. i don't think i'm being controversial here at all, am i? lisa: you're not being controversial. jonathan: looking forward to that news conference tomorrow on tv come on radio.
the equity market, we are unchanged on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the white house says three quarters of u.s. adults have received at least one those of the coronavirus vaccine. still, there has been a recent surge of cases. tomorrow, president biden plans to outline a new strategy to get the pandemic under control. the u.s. is well behind many other countries and inoculate in. -- inoculating its population. china has moved to complete -- hong kong's election system. in the last 10 months, there were 300 elected legislators.
shipments of chinese made cars to a local market rebounded last month. domestic chinese shipments rose almost 50% from july. exports from shanghai, most of them headed to europe. yesterday, the largest cryptocurrency as legal tender. and had a rocky start because of a technical glitch. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
just bitcoin being born as a hedge against bad monetary and fiscal policy, but maybe more importantly, there is a realization that this is a technology and no investor once to miss the next internet. this is the next internet. jonathan: digital founder and ceo. good morning alongside lisa and kaylee. here is your price section. the equity market, we are a little bit softer. down a point on the s&p. a couple of basis points, crude, 69.32. euro-dollar, slightly negative. we are down a little bit more than 1/10 of 1%. is that time of the morning when we catch up with dave wilson of bloomberg. dave, what have you got?
>> taking a look at reports, i actually mentioned yesterday, i was talking about it previously in the context of how long has it been since we've seen a 5% decline in the s&p 500, or how many years do you go without one? turned out, this one is focusing on a relationship between the s&p 500 performance this year, and what is happening to forward earnings. in other words, analyst projections going out 12 months. and the best way to explain the entire s&p 500 this year is by looking at what is happening to these profit forecasts. you are up roughly 20% on the s&p 500 for the year, but if you look at the forward earnings based on our data, they are up 29%. what we are seeing is at least the kind of profit growth to support what has happened this year in the s&p 500.
analysts are certainly looking for that slow down in the third and fourth-quarter and presumably even more out to next year when you get those comparisons with, shall we say, the pandemic recovery that we have been seeing this year in profits. nonetheless, you still have a market that is kind of moving. in a sense, and a fundamental way. that is really the point here. jonathan: thank you as always. that is stable wilson. katie, how many days? katie: 211. today will be 212. and how many is it, 43 record highs so far? lisa: 54. katie: 96. jonathan: it is a part of the world that one can't neglect, and not only because of the opportunity to provide, but you lose excitement if you are not there.
lisa: this is the question, can you be invested right now? can you be invested in an area where you have such uncertain regulatory power. although there is this debate, increasing among officials in china over just how much they should crackdown versus reassuring businesses they are not going to undermine their models. jonathan: the common prosperity, can we talk about that? in connecting what president xi is doing it, and what it means. > if global investors are confused, looks like there is some confusion in china as well about this massive new policy agenda. we are getting some sense of that confusion in china. on the one hand, we've had an influence in bloggers and state media pushing this idea of a revolution in terms of the changes upcoming. on the other hand, we have pushed back to a very influential tabloid making the
point that this is going to be a gradual social change, here unified approach from the top of government in china, all about making a more people society and a more sustainable economy. at the same time, we've had some top officials come here telling the world that china remains open to foreign capital and that of course, a lot afford investors when they hear that message, they heard that one before. lisa: well, who do they listen to? fusion paying is the leader -- xi jinping is the leader. he doesn't necessarily take opinions at a collection box. >> we've seen a crackdown already on online education. we seen the aggressive crackdown on technology.
more to come, a potential crackdown on the property sector. for example, at the same time, you can pursue that agenda, but can you really pursue that agenda and achieve the kind of growth and innovation story that you want? i think that is where the global debate is saying hang on, just what is going on in china? waiting for clarity, waiting for a sense of how this is going to play out. john is pushing a bigger picture. lisa: part of china's push has been targeted at the property sector. i do want to ask you about something we called attention to sometimes already. what is happening with china? downgraded? talking about a probable default? what were the implications be if we could get it to fall. -- two fault? jonathan: the world's most indented developer is a huge part of financials china -- china's financial liability. like you say, the bond into
another spiral. we had a debate recently about the four bad banks. the story was the bond would be repaid, but ultimately there was a sense of them shoring up the government. it's not yet clear what will happen. it would certainly send some tremor through the system. you have to assume that china, you wonder whether they lead to one that message coming through. jonathan: good evening to you, sir, good to catch up. the stock, we talked about this this morning, had a three
flirtation below its ipo price in 2009, which was 3.5. the attention, quite rightly in financial markets. restitution investors especially. it is what is happening with the bonds, and what is happening more broadly. lisa: and the idea of potential leverage purchases of the stocks come of the bonds that could potentially be underwater. could you get forced sales? this company has $305 billion of liability to the likes of developers and of course, the shadow banking system in china. we don't understand all of the connections, but they exist increasingly more. jonathan: can you change common prosperity without putting the squeeze on the property margate and getting some fallout for the likes of ever grand? lisa: right now it seems unclear. we haven't gotten a conclusive answer to that. jonathan: with your equity
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>> september is usually a tough month for equities. >> earnings are going to drive this conversation and fundamentals going forward. >> we see anything to suggest september would be better? no. >> weaved wages with the fundamentals will look like. >> it specifically moves in a slow and steady session. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new yoty