tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 13, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT
>> policy for the most part looks like it is going to be somewhat benign. there's no fears of taper from the ecb or the fed. >> they won't do it in september, i don't think. i think they will announce in december that tapering will start from january. >> we are in a place of strategic ambiguity. > we know for a fact every time something goes wrong, we come back with even more policy stimulus. >> there's a serious debate going on, and they have agreed until disagree -- they have agreed to disagree until december. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: stocks up, yields down. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 27, bouncing back 0.6%. it week for economic data, cpi
and retail sales. it's president biden versus president manchin. tom: that is major reporting this morning on the treatment of taxes. as greg valliere says, let the healing begin. that is really the hallmark of what we are going to see in washington. they are back. they've got a schedule. they've got to deal with. jonathan: then we got to get through cpi tomorrow morning. we've got to get through retail sales. then it is onto next week and the fed decision. tom: but what is really onward, and i said this for months, the guesstimate of gdp and how slowly we are coming down from that boom economy, and also how corporations will adapt to it. to me, it has been a resilient market as we meditate about this drawdown. jonathan: we've been meditating for a while, haven't we? you are offering to therapy -- offering therapy to people experiencing a five day drawdown. here we are, i bounce back of
0.6% on the s&p. can anything change before the federal reserve next week? lisa: in terms of their tapering discussion, it seems like the consensus is it is off the table they will announce a taper at the september meeting. however, they do expect from all communication to start later this year. does it really matter where -- matter whether it is october, november or december? jonathan: the good news, we are in a blackout for fed speak this week. lisa: that is good news? jonathan: for some people. we are so zen on this program. tom keene meditating. tom: i've been listening to ed shearon. jonathan: what did you call it, warmed up coldplay? lisa: oh boy. jonathan: in the fx market, the euro showing a little bit of wood. euro-dollar -0.3%, $1.1775. lisa: i've been particularly
interested in what is going on in the crude market. we have this dissonance between stockpiles going up in the united states, while we have lower demand evidence result -- lower demand as a result of the delta variant. we are bidding the opec monthly report released anytime now. how do they view the drawdowns and inventories in the united states, that are now the lowest since 2019? it is the first day of public school in new york. i'm watching how we people actually return and what it is like. just 65% of new york city 12 to 17-year-olds have been vaccinated. the first hedge fund conference to be held in new york city versus where it is normally held, and las vegas. the discussion will be going forward, what is the future of hedge funds that now have more than $4 trillion of assets under
management? they performed a little better than over the past 10 years. the question really is how important will hedge funds be as people try to diversify away from low yielding assets? jonathan: looking forward to the commentary from that this week. let's get straight to the quote for this morning. we have jokingly been calling this rally the ed sheeran or dave matthews rally, a rally that no one likes, yet it continues to go up. the author of that quote is here with us, amy wu silverman of rbc capital markets. is that likely to change anytime soon? amy: so far, no. i was watching the drawdown with great interest because the option sentiment has been so glum through year end. once you usually get kind of a breather, it kind of comes off and the reality is it hasn't. we have remained with demand for downside protection, and even despite the move down that has
kind of stayed solid, which tells you that sentiment is still swaying, they're waiting for an even further move. tom: the week ends, the week begins, and we have to focus on the acuity away from the lyrics of ed sheeran and dave matthews with your vicious, mean-spirited note. give us why you should own equities. amy: i think part of it is because the market is well hedged. we are very well-positioned to the downside. i will give you one stat i think really puts it into context. if you just sold one of these 10% money put options on the s&p in october, you could buy the equivalent 60 times the upside. just to provide some history on that metric, back in july that was at 15 times. what that is telling you is the market is ready for the market going down.
oftentimes when that happens, the reverse is not true. the market is not ready for the market going up. that brings you to to a potential path if something good does happen to scrambling to get that leverage on the others had. lisa: you've got pushback on the dave matthews point, based on some of the people who read your notes. we can discuss that in detail. amy: i learned that the hard way. [laughter] lisa: exactly. there is a question of how many people are looking at inflation, how many people are looking at margin pressures. one thing i thought was fascinating is the options market is not pressing in concern at all for inflation and consumer staples. however, not really the case in industrials. can you explain? amy: i think it is important because we talk about inflation as this broad umbrella, but the reality is obviously for and sectors are going to be impacted differently. when you look at consumer
staples on a two-month period, when you look at the names like a kroger, for example, where it was down 9% last week, you are seeing it short-term, and yet that disappears over a six-month period and the 12 months period when you look at those relative implied volatility's. completely the opposite is true with industrials. some of this is tax related, but what this tells me is if you believe the cost pressures do remain in consumer staples over the longer-term, that options market pricing has not put that there yet, so that is an opportunity to own those puts within that sector specifically. i think that is hav -- that is how you have to play inflation concerns right now. lisa: how much of this is looking at how margin pressures are being priced in in specific sectors and trying to get ahead of things that way? amy: i think it is going to go sector by sector, stock buy stock. so we are really focused on where we see that change in
auction sentiment. stock by stock, the normalized view is at a two-year high, so there's a demand for downside protection even after it has gone down 9%. that's what i think is key for people to remember. after you've had that move down, often time hedges are removed. this is not what is happening where you continue to see that inflation pressure, so people think it will continue to go down. tom: i'm in love with the shape of this market. actually though out there and read ed sheeran lyrics. jonathan: that was beautiful. you know, good jokes don't need to be explained, tk. [laughter] tom: the reason the skew is the way it is is fear. how do you know when to go long? amy: look, you don't. i wish i did.
it is always about timing. the way i think about it is what could possibly drive this market to the upside. what lisa said earlier about the childcare point i feel deeply and personally because i have school-aged children. but if you get a vaccine earlier than expected for the under 12 crowd, the crowd that actually meets childcare infrastructure, that is something that could potentially bring this market up . the timing is always difficult. the point is just that the positioning. jonathan: do you think that authorization for children could have a similar effect on this market in the same way that we saw things develop in early november last year? amy: i'm not a medical expert, but i think this is one of those things where you just know personally if you are living through it if this is something you know that you can safely send your children to school,
you are not calling a backup sitter at the 11th hour because you have to go to the office, then sure, of course it helps. that makes it so the stability of the return to work is something that can happen. jonathan: thank you for catching up with us this morning. lisa, could that be the game changer? that a thing of her one question in equity markets for so many people, a second leg of the cyclical rally. what would spark that second leg of the cyclical rally? lisa: a lot of people hesitant to take kids under the age of 12, perhaps i'm channeling myself a little bit, on airplanes or buses or anywhere that potentially could expose them before they are eligible for a shot. if that shot is available, are you more willing to go out? is it treated more like a virus in your own home? we were talking about people vaccinated wearing masks in their own home with children. jonathan: i think it is more of a process. it is one child in your class getting covid, and then the
whole class getting sent home. if you are in a situation where the other children were vaccinated, there's likely to be, and i say likely because this has happened in this country already with adults, if you have been exposed but you are vaccinated, it is unlikely you clear out the whole class. it is a cleaner process in terms of continuity and expectations. lisa: and frankly, you don't want your kids getting really sick. if that is taken off the table, it is a relief. tom: here's what i have learned this morning. go mckee has got to stand up at the press conference and say, chairman powell -- michael mckee has got to stand up at the press conference and say, do you like dave matthews? jonathan: i think that's it. [laughter] lisa is taking a day off, tom. lisa: 100%. jonathan: keep this going. that's nice. tom: have you ever looked at the lyrics? jonathan: not a fan, are you,
tk? tom: no. jonathan: yields down a basis point. we've got no time. equity futures up 25. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. bloomberg has learned house democrats are set to propose raising the corporate tax rate to 26.5%, less than what president biden was asking for to help pay for his 3.5 trillion dollar economic agenda. the current rate is 21%. ♪ lisa: -- for nuclear strikes against south korea and japan. it is the first known missile test in north korea since march, and it came days after north korea staged its first military parade since joe biden became president. the united nations nuclear watchdog has signaled progress
in talks with iran on getting access to the country's facilities. they will replace damaged cameras and memory cards. earlier, the iea warned against provoking confrontation. a dutch court ruled that workers who drive passengers using the uber app are covered by collective labor laws. that would allow workers to claim overdue salary. uber says it will appeal. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. ♪
for the next pandemic. this is the biggest vulnerability for our national security from the rest of the world over the next decade. jonathan: larry summers, the harvard university professor emeritus. is that the ed sheeran of the economics profession? tom: ooh. i would say the ed sheeran of sieges academics -- of procedures academics. jonathan: equity futures up 0.6%. don't allow a question to reveal some kind of opinion i may or may not have. euro-dollar, $1.1774. negative on the currency pair 0.3%. tom: let's talk about that for 30 seconds. a breakout of $1.18. there's a frame of thought that takes euro down to $1.12.
jonathan: i think we've got to get to december now. i know i sound like a broken record because i've spent the last three months saying let's get to september. tom: sounds like ed sheeran lyrics. [laughter] jonathan: nice. tom: emily wilkins is going, what are they talking about? emily wilkins of bloomberg government, they are back and what. -- back in washington. let's continue this discussion. how do democrat elitists, the rich guys in the democratic already, how do they push against the progressives -- the democratic party, how to they push against the progressives? emily: the ed sheeran song for washington, dc is sinking out loud which is -- is "thinking out loud," which is lot of -- which is what a lot of people are doing now that this package is coming together. you have heard progressives say
they want far more, that 3.5 trillion dollars is already a compromise, but on a certain level, all democrats do want to get something done. they realize they are going to be in a lot of trouble in next year's midterms if they wind up coming back to the american people empty-handed after touting all of these potential promises of elder care, child care, medicare expansion. that is not going to play well in the election. tom: i knew i knew you from somewhere. you were in the front row at the verizon center september 19 of 2017 for ed sheeran. i knew i had seen you somewhere before. what is going to be the response? away from those names, who were you watching in this tax battle? emily: tax wise, i think richard neal, you basically hit on the head.
also make sure your keep an eye in the senate on ron wyden, sherrod brown, two big figures they're trying to figure out their own tax proposals. i am going to give you the name of someone who i am very much watching now going forward, stephanie murphy. she's a democrat from florida. she is a moderate, head of the moderate blue dog coalition. she really made some waves last week during a markup, where she expressed some concerns with this reconciliation package. she didn't vote for a piece of it, saying she needed more time to review it, and time is something that democrats do not have right now. they are really working towards that symptom or -- that september 27 deadline, where that infrastructure has to start being considered in the house. tom: that is so important here, congresswoman murphy being a vietnamese is really considered to be the future of the moderates of the democratic party. lisa: at a time of waning popularity for president biden. i want to know how that plays into this debate of the
stimulative aspect of reconciliation versus the taxation side of it. this is what markets have been evaluating. is this going to be paid for with debt, or is the understanding at this point trying to get senator manchin onboard that it has to be paid for with higher taxes? emily: manchin and moderates are really pushing for this entire package to be paid for. are they going to be able to have the entire package paid for? are there going to be a couple of things that it doesn't quite cover and they say it is important enough, we are going to put it out there and do it? i think that is a really big question you are going to see as you see the senate come back this week, the house come back next week, and debate really begin to take off on that. lisa: i want to get your read on the aftermath of president biden's speech last week on covid. they will be presenting some data on trying to expand the effort to distribute
vaccinations across the world. how has this red with was back the polarization of the company -- of the country, to have businesses embrace this message that they have to start mandating or test their employees? or has this caused pushback? emily: it has definitely caused pushback in some places. some businesses have embraced it with open arms. we keep seeing these issues that really follow along the partisan breakdown lines, but we have seen some news that delta, which did require their employees to either be vaccinated or have a fine, say that moved around 4000 of them employees -- moved about 4000 of their employees to get vaccinated. so there is a sense that some of these mandates are actually encouraging people to go ahead and get the shot, but certainly there is fallout that remains to be seen if this goes to the courts, if you have certain
businesses that oppose, if you have lawsuits. we are going to be seeing all of that unfolding as some of these mandates kick into high gear and people start facing punishments, being fired, being laid off, losing pay if they are not vaccinated. jonathan: when do we hear from the president next? emily: we are expecting to hear from him later today, flying out west and talking about the wildfire situation, tying that into climate change and infrastructure proposals. jonathan: emily wilkins, thank you, our bloomberg government reported. that spat between the democrats and senator joe manchin going nowhere anytime soon. there was a spat over the weekend between senator manchin and congresswoman a cossey a court has desk tundras woman alexandria ocasio-cortez -- congresswoman ocasio-cortez. you get the sense he is trying to put some distance between himself and that wind of the party. tom: that wing is accurate.
i do not agree that it is the rest of the party. i think it is a huge visceral and traditional democrat party support for let's call it the caution of the senator from west virginia. tom: have we got a deadline to get this done? tom: i think there is a deadline. jonathan: what do you thing it is? tom: i don't know. i listen to annmarie hordern or emily wilkins. i don't know what deadline is. lisa: it is unlike to get a vote by the end of september. they have to get it before the midterms because they could lose the majority. jonathan: that's why i ask. how far before the midterms do you need to get this done, especially with the infrastructure package? do people want to see the benefits of that beyond just seeing a signature at the bottom of a bill? lisa: technically they are sort of linked because the house democrats have been clear about that. i have -- i wonder how stimulative it will be if it is offset entirely by taxes. jonathan: that is the fear, if we start to see a headwind
so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.
♪ jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." off the back of five days of losses on the s&p, a bounce back a 0.5%. a bounce back on the nasdaq by about 0.5%. the russell up 0.75%. another upgrade from wall street, this time from rbc after we saw something similar from bank of america, something similar before that from wells fargo. we go from 4325 at rbc to 4500, next year 4900. that your market call this morning. let's get to the market. it is the blackout period for the federal reserve. the good news for so many of you, no fed speak for the week going into the decision next week. the two stocks on the road
towards that decision still ahead of us. yields lower, curve flatter. is this the treasury market's future? please will have more -- lisa will have more on this. this has happened many times before. the japanese 10 year not traded a single time in trading over in asia. tom: it is a symbol of sclerosis and the japanification, and all of the other phrases you hear, from japan over to europe and may be the u.s. that is the fear that is out there. jonathan: are we seeing this in our future? lisa: i am not going to make that prognostication because other people can do that for me. i will say there is a question of what kind of market are we if it has such incredible intervention by central banks? jonathan: is it a market
anymore? thank you for participating in that market check. it means a lot. [laughter] tom: very sensitive. jonathan: i am. your japanese 10 year at about five basis points. let's get you some movers. romaine bostick, good morning. romaine: i like the teamwork this morning. let's take a look at some of those chinese adrs, moving once again to the downside. a lot of concern about that "financial times" report saying the government is looking to break up ali pay into a separate lender. that is hurting alibaba, down just 1% or so. you are seeing some of the other adrs listed in the united states moving lower as well. also keep an eye on airbnb. an interesting downgrade this morning over at goldman sachs, with the third sell rating on airbnb, citing pressures in the travel space.
those shares moving slightly lower. amc is your biggest volume move or on the day, coming off the back of the announcement by disney on friday saying that its slate of six films left for 20 pony one will -- for 2021 will get exclusive theatrical release of about 30 days. that is a big shift from that hybrid approach, where it was releasing in theater and on the streaming platform at the same time. that could be a big lifeline to amc. apple shares coming off three days of declines ahead of that big iphone unveil scheduled for tuesday. they are scheduled to unveil a bunch of iphones, a new slate of macs, as well as ipads. keep an eye on some of the suppliers. qualcomm and globalstar, there's a lot of speculation about a satellite feature baked into this iphone, a broadband chip
qualcomm will be providing. qualcomm has a relationship with globalstar, and the speculation is that globalstar will be a beneficiary of that. tom: look for mark gurman to give you the best coverage not only on apple news, but the apple rumors as well. he is truly on a global basis industry-leading. romaine bostick, "the close" this afternoon. jon wants to talk about callum pickering -- talk to kallum pickering. within the gloom that is out there, particularly the equity market blue, ica vector on jobless claims that is stunning. it is the chart that has the most inertial force in all of my charts. claims are getting better. what does that signal? kallum: the u.s. economy seems to be improving. we had an extremely battered recovery.
this is a historic drop off by a historically fast recovery area but we are not falling there yet. the labor market has some way to go. supply issues will require increase in productive capacity, in investment. there's a question around u.s. fiscal policy. how much debt should bite and willin -- should biden be willing to take on? the easy thing is now that the recovery is over, things can get a little more complicated. this is now a big challenge for markets. tom: how does the end of the boom economy in america continental europe? kallum: if america sneezes, europe touches the cold. this is an old adage, but it still rings true. this is a global economy. if europe suffers, so does america. but this room has legs.
there are short-term issues and uncertainties around the iris headed into the winter. there are serious supply-side challenges that probably get worse. but businesses, households have fairly good fundamentals area policymakers seem absolutely committed to stimulating growth. you see across surveys and increasing appetite for risk. the question is, do policymakers start to lift their foot off the accelerator clear enough to prevent economy from overheating? this is a big issue in the u.k. end in the u.s. than it is in continental europe. jonathan: there seems to be a real market bias that we don't talk about china as much because it is not affecting the broader market in the united states. it is affecting chinese listings here and there. it is affecting the chinese market. that is for sure. this headline coming out of evergrand that they are facing
protests in china, it back lash from homebuyers, investors, from employees. i've been asking the question we all have over every week of the last several weeks. what is going on in china right now? i don't mean the regulation here, there and everywhere. i am talking about in the property market, with oath on the ground in this economy. what is going on? kallum: there are real challenges linked to shifting the economy away from heavy industry infrastructure towards a domestic market facing, consumer facing part of the economy. there seems to be a contradiction when it comes to the chinese economic model. china is shifting towards services, which is consistent with gdp per capita rising, living standards improving. but with that, potential growth will slow. however, the party still has a fairly high growth target, and in order to get there, you have to stimulate your infrastructure
spending. you have to eat credit periodically. the question is at one point -- at what point does the political inconsistency meet the economic inconsistency? at what point is the domestic market allowed to -- in a way we haven't experienced before? but i think this is much more important for the global picture. china is the marginal driver of global trade, global production. everyone looks at the china credit imports as one the key indicators because it works. it has changed this time around. now it is the western consumer which will be the marginal driver of global change. it is u.s. central banks, european central banks, european central bank's, and governments. focus less on china because it is not the main engine of growth. these really are domestic issues. lisa: given the fact that the consumer is the enema driver,
how closely are you watching consumer spending as the fiscal impulse rolls off and we get the rolloff of some of those checks in the next couple of months? kallum: i think from the durability of the business cycle, from that perspective, we want the sugar rush to wear off. the mystic demand has run way ahead of what producers can sustainably meet in the longer end. so let's just be happy that we are over and done with the sugar rush, and we are getting now to the up swing phase of the business cycle. the u.s. housing market in good shape. fundamentals from the perspective of u.s. household wealth at record highs. wages are rising nicely. eventually, these numbers we have seen will start to soak up potential employment from the edges of the labor market. consumer outlook in the u.s. looks pretty good. underpinning this is this fundamental confidence in what
policymakers can achieve. we had a chronic attack of economic pessimism after the financial crisis linked to a lack of confidence in economic policy makers. we were afraid of what would happen, and that hit consumer confidence. now you we have consumers with good balance sheets that believe the central government can support the economy over the medium term. this is a different scenario. this is late 1990's, early 2000's. this is not 2011, 2012. jonathan: good to hear from you, as always. kallum pickering there, berenberg senior economist. we have a bounce back off of five days of losses on the s&p 500, in a couple of basis points. the next stop, cpi. tom: there's no question, cpi
bigger than the ppi we saw a couple of days ago. the stasis here that we are all feeling with minimal movement, at some point that always breaks. you've got to look to the fed meeting, 22. jonathan: then on to retail sales. lisa: the question with cpi is are we seeing any decline in the pace of price hikes. i've got to keep going back to seth carpenter of morgan stanley. he came out and said he things we have seen some of the p conflation area reads for the input price -- peak inflationary reads for the input price. jonathan: in the commodity market, $70.11 on wti, up about 0.6%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the state of louisiana is facing another storm and potential flash floods two weeks after
being battered by hurricane ida. a state of emergency has been declared because of tropical storm nicholas, which formed in the gulf of mexico. it has triggered a storm surge warning along the texas coast. heavy rain and possible floods are expected through louisiana through the middle of the week. senator joe manchin casting doubt on the timeline for pushing president biden's economic agenda through congress. the west virginia democrat suggests a late september target for a vote is unrealistic. manchin's vote is crucial on the evenly spit senate. -- evenly split senate. president biden will announce his next steps to boost the global vaccine supply before the united nations general is simply next week. the u.s. has pledged to donate more than 600 million vaccine doses by the middle of next year. billions of doses will be needed to curb pandemic. the crisis over china's evergrand is getting worse.
retail investors and even its own employees -- evergrand has more than $300 billion in liabilities. kansas city southern is backing out of a merger deal with canadian national railway. instead it will accept a competing offer from canadian pacific. canadian national's bid was higher, but began to unravel over questions of whether it could win glittery approval -- could win regulatory approval. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
the s&p has been close to that already, and a lot of people are asking us if the s&p can reach 5000. we think it can, but that is more about 18 months away rather than 18 weeks away. jonathan: david bianco of u.s. equity investment -- of dws investment. equity futures up 23. we advance this morning by about 0.5%. tom: extrapolation there by bianco and others. they go out to 18 months. dave wilson goes out about two hours. he's here with the put call ratio. how quaint. does anybody care anymore? dave: at least one person cares, liz ann sonders over at charles schwab. tom: she will be on later. dave: she put out this note friday on twitter. she puts out a bunch of charts every day. this one caught my eye, looking
at put call ratios for individual stocks as opposed to those for indexed options. what is interesting is you've got the biggest gap between these two ratios, the ones for the individual shares and for the indexes, in 14 years. it basically tells you people are piling into options as a way to bet on stocks, and at the same time, you've got more hedging going on in the index options. at least, that is the way it looks given the numbers. tom: the indexes are blended out to be a more cautious statement now, where the roulette players are going long the market in the individual calls. dave: absolutely. you did fine, tom. but think about the meme stocks. we've seen when you get these bursts of gang, it is not just in the shares of these companies. it is also in the call options. using about robinhood or
competing marketplaces where you can basically trade options for free. the commissions are into their anymore. so it does look like we are seeing more trading in these individual contract, and it is skewed towards people looking for prices to go up. tom: david wilson there with ms. sonders, who will be on later. jonathan: it's maria tadeo on tour. from brussels now to berlin, what are you doing now? maria: we are looking at the german election, and it really is a defining election. we all know that angela merkel is leaving. this is 16 years of angela merkel coming to an end, and germany really is in a defining moment. this is an election that was on
automatic pilot for the christian democrats to win, and everything has changed. the social democrats, people thought these guys were dead, now you have olaf scholz really leading in polls. german politics are so complex that this could be a very difficult government. any coalitions could have a safe year, but it is also a huge change of going from a christian democrats chancellor to potentially a social democrat back in power. lisa: has the german reputation of being fiscally conservative come to an end? maria: it could be, but we often hear this time and time again, if you get a social democrat government, germany is going to start spending and you will see a real shift. what we have to factor in is that the next government will be a three-way coalition. that means the next chancellor will have to make a lot of compromise in terms of the fiscal policy, but also the economic policy. the big question for germany is
what to do with china. until now, it has been an economy that is very much export driven. this is a huge industrial power. that could change because there is pressure for the next government to become tougher on china, especially when you look at the human rights. it is very difficult to separate the politics in the trade the way that angela merkel has done. lisa: how does the german population, based on the bulls right now, based on the fact that and ella merkel's party is not gaining favor asked that angela merkel's party is not gaining favor -- that angela merkel's party is not gaining favor, how does that affect and germany as the -- affect the ecb and germany as the leader economically? maria: it does feed into a bigger debate happening not just at the ecb, but also in the european commission, the fiscal rules. this is a debate that will get heated. the idea that if you do get the social -- the social
democrat government, many germans i have spoken with continue to say the economic policies they have had until now work for germany and want to continue. there's also a lot of anxiety when you speak to germans. you feel like this is a big moment of change for the country. jonathan: i'm going to ask the most tom keene-esque question ever. for an american right now, why should they care? lisa: who are you? [laughter] maria: you know, they should because we could see a big repricing in the bund, and that could affect pretty much everything in the bond space. and also the fiscal debate. is europe going to become much more of a fiscal continent the way the united states is? are we going to see a turn away from the traditional policies of the european union? that could happen in this
election, particularly the bund. will it trade different with a government that is clearly pro-spending and wants to engage in that too? jonathan: maria, thank you very much. mari -- maria tadeo. tom: very sensitive, very good. she juts around. jonathan: where was she last time, venice? tom: she was in venice, whatever. lisa is like, ok. , central park north,. lisa: do you want me to start crying on air? jonathan: let's turn down -- left turn down fifth. there we go. lisa: what was the band we were talking about last week? [laughter] tom: it reminds me of the german election. jonathan: what do you make of that? let's carve out 60 seconds of
seriousness on this program. are you surprised by how little attention that has got from american-based investors? everyone i speak to come on this program or others, it hardly ever comes up. tom: yes, and it is true, it has always been true. it is never going to change. it is just not a big deal until it is a big deal. lisa: to jon's point, this could potentially be a more pivotal moment. this is a sea change in the german zeitgeist, going from a fiscally conservative we don't want to deficit spend two possibly something different. that has major implications. i guess perhaps it is just too many if's. jonathan: i'm with you, but throwing china into the mix as well, there's some things going on in china right now move the dial, doesn't it? lisa: ultimately, it all comes down to fiscal and monetary stimulus. nothing changes that, everything going in the same direction. jonathan: up 24 on the s&p, a
introducing xfinity rewards. our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. enjoy rewards like movie night specials. xfinity mobile benefits. ...and exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live. hey! it's me. the longer you've been with us... the more rewards you can get. like sharpening your cooking skills with a top chef. join for free on the xfinity app and watch all the rewards float in. our thanks. your rewards.
♪ >> policy for the most part looks like it is going to be somewhat benign. there's no fears of paper, either from the ecb -- of taper, either from the ecb or the fed. >> i think they will announce taper in december and start in january. >> we know for a fact every time some the goes wrong, they come back with even more policy stimulus. >> there is a serious debate going on, and they have agreed to disagree on taper -- to disagree