tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 15, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT
they have the pedal to the metal, and inflation is down the list of words. >> the fed has started to change their signaling. >> the fed will have trouble decoupling tapering from rate hikes. >> we've had a massive amount of inflation in this era. >> you've seen inflation expectations pick up but they are still at levels overall consistent with the bench target. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city and worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equity markets fading a bit, up six on the s&p, up a little more than 1/10 of 1%. the downside surprise in china. tom: confirming that if you got
it right and everybody else a little too optimistic. i thought bill lee was lights out in the last hour, really framing all of china and what it means for us. we looked at inflation yesterday, look at retail sales tomorrow. jonathan: there is a belief that altogether it takes the heat off. the federal reserve, what are you looking for? tom: you and i and lisa saw it yesterday, yields went up a little bit and then look what they did. we were having one of our power breakfasts. jonathan: spiked coffee at 10:30. tom: the guinness was good. you noticed 1.20 eight, now on the way to 1.26. jonathan: 1.2718. lisa: i don't understand what the implication is because if the fed were going to hold off on their taper plan, that meant
higher long-term yields allowing inflation to increase. there's something else i don't understand. jonathan: hasn't that been the story? lisa: i don't get it. jonathan: what the economic data point is an even if i could guarantee it, we don't know how the market will trade off it. lisa: you can bet on the entirety of the market because not only did you see bond yields fall, normally that would be positive news for stocks. not so much yesterday. what's the message, or is there something more technical? jonathan: on the s&p 500, a little bit of a bounce with the emphasis on "a little bit." futures up 5, 1 10th of 1%. tom: i don't buy it. jonathan: why? tom: one of the first questions and esteemed chairman of bloomberg said to me, tom, what about moving averages? the answer is taken singularly,
it is bad math, bad study. you've got to use a set of moving averages, and no one's doing that. jonathan: that's the most fired up you've been this morning. tom: it is. they almost fired me. jonathan: i'm tense, 1.2735. -- on tens, 1.2735. the show would be so different. tom: let me roll over for a minute. jonathan: take a break. wti wrapping down about a dollar on crude. lisa, 71.41. lisa: the markets and how there is not much action, not an incredible amount of data. 8:30 a.m., import christ -- import prices come out. supply chain disruptions on both fronts, how much are import prices increasing as a result and what is this saying about china, the transmission
mechanism to the united states? what is the path along rates to the end consumers, fly manufacturers? we've been talking all morning about elevated crude prices, the highest since early august. it has been a steady climb, and the interesting thing is, it is a direct correlation with a steady decline in inventories in the united states and elsewhere. today at 10:30, eia crude inventories. today, ursula von der leyen will address the parliament and the approach to combating the pandemic. later -- tom: they just want to know if she can get the euro started again with the power outage. lisa: thank you, you will be asking and probably nobody else. valdis dombrovskis will join us. jonathan: tom is going to leave that conversation. i'm excited about it. later on this hour? lisa: in about 15 minutes.
jonathan: the data out of china stinks relative to expectations and when you put it together with the headline, waiting for, expecting china's top banks to pay interest due on september 20. and you get the notes on the inbox and they say things like "risk on, "tilt towards em." tom: you hear me use the word vector and it is everybody gaming what their expected vector is. jonathan: let's get to the principal global chief strategist. that line comes from you, meaning global growth will be ok, risk positioning, upside to equities. help people put money to work. why in em? seema: we acknowledge this right now is a challenging time. especially given what is going on in china.
the view on em is a six-month out view based on the idea that vaccination rates are picking up , not everywhere, but in large part. as a result, that's a way of getting in on the recovery trend and almost extending the recovery trade in the u.s. i want to have that caveat because it is dependent on what happens with china. if these things start to blow out of control, then of course it will change, but it the stage, it is too early. we look at various global opportunities and in six months, assuming that china does stay in order, but we do think em can provide what you need. tom: i love how you put the differentiation, the calculus in the english in your note. you talk about weaker still positive growth. is that something to fear, a weaker, still positive growth? seema: it's not. one thing we've been saying is a
lot of people have come out and said, august 8 was bad. markets got freaked out. we put it down to a cost increase in the u.s. and other parts of the world, and some consensus about china. delta is plateauing and china has issue -- china's issuing is increasing. it is seeming that we are correct that a slowdown in growth from the first part of the year is not mean there is a contraction. it just means it is a slower but more sustainable pace of growth and we think risk assets do well. lisa: the consensus is there will be some kind of dip, especially leaning into the cyclicals in the u.s. do you agree? seema: i am starting to get more consent that europe's time in the sun is starting to end. we like the u.s. because not only do you get the exposure to cyclicals, which we believe the
growth will still be strong, but also within the u.s. to have the technology trade. you get a bit of both, which means throughout u.s. equities, it is a core part of the allocation and increasingly grew the next six months, em is more favorable to us than europe. tom: what is the dollar did nymex -- dynamics of em are favorable in the u.s.? do you have to hedge? seema: good point, because there's so much disagreement on where the dollar is going. the dollar has flipped around on its head from the beginning of the year, so given the difficulty in predicting where the dollar will go and we are looking at it as more of a hedge basis. jonathan: people are talking about small caps in america, a repeat perhaps of the leg higher last year off of the fcc -- efficacy data of the vaccine. it convinced people we were back on the road to normal.
can you think of an equivalent, the good news, to generate that again? seema: i am skeptical about the small-cap trade at the moment. even if we are right and delta is plateauing, you will get a burst inactivity in september, it will not be a reopening. it does not seem to come back, so this is a normalization of activity, but i struggle to see that small-cap is a place to play this. you have to look to other places to enjoy the strong growth but not a groping rios play -- reopen play. jonathan: thank you. how many times have you heard people push that trade? lisa: the idea is people expect cyclicals to lead, and what will be the catalyst? i have an idea. what if they reopen the transatlantic corridor? jonathan: it is open for you. be my guest. lisa: if we had more concrete
travel rules where people could travel more freely without getting a swab down their throat. jonathan: without the administration to embrace a little bit of reciprocity. tom: you have studied this better than anyone in the media, to be blunt. do you assume they will reopen only with fully vaccinated people? jonathan: i don't want to make any assumptions because i've been waiting for how long, we've all been waiting 9 -- 18 months. if it goes in that direction, i would be surprised. i don't think i can assume anything with international travel. many people thought president biden in the white house, things would change with the travel ban and trade. what's changed? on that front? continuity, absolutely continuity on the travel ban and trade. we can talk about trade with the europeans. tom: i'm scheduled to do 24 out to italy and it was clear what
italy was saying to me was, one paragraph, do this. i don't get that out of washington. jonathan: let's go, let's move. let's talk about trade with valdis dombrovskis. when have you ever gone below canal street? tom: once in 2000. lisa: to get lotion for his head. [laughter] tom: i got a huge response yesterday, go botox. jonathan: i didn't know you went below 58? tom: botox or do i need to get something done? jonathan: can we change the start up a little bit? drop the bowtie. i would say, this is my line whenever anyone in america has me about a skinny tie. the older you get, the wider it gets. lisa: until it becomes a bowtie. tom: the bowtie, a lovely thing.
jonathan: futures up 1/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. those in california have overwhelmingly rejected the call to recall gavin newsom. two thirds voted no whether he should be removed from office, a major win for democratic leaders characterizing -- kim jong-un's regime fired two ballistic missiles that felled -- landed off the east coast. they could hit south korea and japan. president biden had an idea with a meeting with xi jinping but president xi declined. he has not left china in more than 600 days.
the u.s. justice department asked for an emergency court reporter to restrict an antiabortion law in texas, likely to reach all the way to the supreme court. it outlaws almost all abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. that is the top business call in the u.s., putting to "businessweek." they have been highest when it comes to networking entrepreneurship. harvard in third. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
their fundamental right to vote and express themselves so overwhelmingly by rejecting the division. jonathan: governor gavin newsom of california, from new york city, alongside tom and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. it is a brief mild bounce up, four or five points and we faded as the session has grown older 1/10 of 1%. a 1.26 handle on the 10, 1.27 68, and the 30 year yield keeps coming in. better news out of the u.k.. the bbc, a tweet from laura kunz berg of the bbc -- from a number tends saws, the governor will reshuffle to put together a united team to build back better from the pandemic, a cabinet shuffle. interesting to see if the
chancellor -- that would be real news, let's be clear about that. i've got no information. a reshuffle from the cabinet for the prime minister at some point today. tom: we reshuffle down to washington where annmarie hordern joins us. i want you to explain on whatever topic, the pandemic, taxes, whatever, the majority that president biden addresses? gavin newsom found a majority, 63 percent, 68%, 70%, whatever the number is, with all the heat within the media. does president biden have the same majority of 63% or 70%? annmarie: it depends on the issue. when you look at vaccines and covid, that's one of the main issues that drove californians to the polls. also the fact that they staked this recall with governor newsom on the fact that if you don't
vote for newsom, you will have a "trump clone." it will be interesting to see if that's the same strategy they will use in the midterm election. on the pandemic, the polls are starting to shift toward the president's favor. three out of five was the political poll last week, americans agree with vaccine mandates. the president will meet with executives of microsoft and walgreens to implement vaccine mandates. in that direction potentially, yes. infrastructure, it remains to be seen. tom: the modern majority of governor newsom and all of that, fold it into the task of modern democrats. are they the majority? annmarie: the moderate democrats hold a lot of power because it has really come down to the senate, where every senator has an immense amount of power especially when it comes to
voting on the infrastructure package, because they cannot lose a single vote. if senator joe manchin is not agreed with a house ways and means proposal on a tax, they will have to have a markup because he has to get on board or there will be no legislation. democrats are aware of the fact this is a moment they can all get on board, or they will not see legislation passed. -- past. -- pass. that is where the senate democrat moderates really have the power. jonathan: let's talk about the -- lisa: let's talk about the functioning of washington, d.c., the treasury department in the forefront when it comes to getting anything passed and distributing covid relief funds. how effective is it hobbled by so many vacancies? annmarie: there are a number of
vacancies chair yellen has been trying to fill. republicans are holding it up and using it against the administration for not sanctioning companies pursuing the nord stream 2 pipeline and the likes. treasury secretary yellen is moving ahead but it makes their job harder because not only do they not have the people in place, but will they be briefed in time? that is a struggle of the administration, a number of holdups in terms of not just the treasury department, but other departments, on getting individuals in place. for yellen, the next month will be difficult because we have the debt ceiling looming, which was made crystal clear with the republicans on the hill, stan -- senator mitch mcconnell being staunch that every republican will not vote toward the debt ceiling. he said the democrats need to do it alone, and that was in a briefing with three republican
senators. it will be sticky. lisa: do you think the political turmoil is overlooked by markets? is this what people are saying in washington, we could get a debt ceiling debacle that is not priced in? annmarie: it is hard to say, because this is a perennial football in washington, d.c., a debate that happens every few years. markets are well aware that at some point, someone will cave because they do know that there is the risk -- you can remember 2011 with the downgrade -- there is the risk of the u.s. credit. at some point i imagine markets believe that with democrats in control, the house, senate, an executive branch, they will raise the debt ceiling, but markets should pay more attention to the fact that republicans refuse to get on board. they said there will not be a single republican vote and that is up to the democrats.
they are putting the democrats "on morning" that they have to do this alone, but the democrats want to do it alongside republicans. there could be a standoff. arc its should maybe pay more attention, but i imagine they agree at some point they will not risk the credit and health of the u.s. economy. jonathan: ann marie, thank you, our washington correspondent. headline crossing the bloomberg on china, hard to interpret. requiring websites to stick to political -- correct political direction, just another headline on top of the other headlines. what is it, a couple of months? lisa: this does indicate a greater attention to the social aspects of xi jinping's control over the public. to me, this is been one of the most fascinating features of the new xi jinping and some of the
controls and dictates. jonathan: what we've got to talk about is the data out of china overnight, there's a slowdown. it's really clear. we've talked about deceleration in america. let's talk about deceleration in retail sales. we've been looking for a seven handle and we got a two. that is a monster downside. tom: "monster" is the right word and absolutely correct. it certainly gets you under 6% real gdp. what i insist is when do the western banks begin to react to the political dialogue that lisa sums? i can't believe they can do an entrepreneurial forward thrust into the pacific rim and into china, given the sum of these headlines? jonathan: if we were speaking too ceos, what would they say? tom: they wouldn't sit down with us. they don't want u.n. need to talk to. jonathan: we believe in the
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♪ jonathan: futures fading just a little bit. good morning to you all, it's wednesday morning. retail sales tomorrow and jobless claims. futures up not even buy 1/10 of 1% on the s&p, russell unchanged, the nasdaq positive. jp morgan think it's -- jp morgan things slow growth is ahead. -- strong growth is ahead. yields lower at the long end, 26 .68. one .82 on the 30. -- 1.82 on the 30. it is a surprise on cpi to yesterday's session. we moved in -- tom: we moved in,
30 year level. i guess we could go the other way. jonathan: three basis points away. let's get to the china dashboard. take a look at a couple things, the-china, aussie-dollar, copper. -- dollar-china, aussie-dollar, copper. copper not doing much. aussie totally unchanged. the renminbi, average of the year 6.47. tom: we are in new strength, not record strength. 6.43 surprises a lot of people. i think it is unique. it is singular. i will not give it a pacific rim feel. jonathan: we are seeing stability in rubbish data and a problem with a major property developer in that country.
china, 6.43, really stable. that's the cross asset price action. romaine: a quiet day in the premarket. her soft shares moving higher, a $60 billion buyback and a slight bump up in the dividend. the company getting a contract expansion from the department of defense worth $2.9 billion for that covid and thai baht a treatment. -- antibody treatment. the federal government is trying to regain control over the distribution of the regeneron antibody treatment and competing treatments. that will be coordinated through the government for distribution to the states. to the downside, this was one of
the big innovators in the messenger rna for the covid vaccines but not got -- has not gotten its vaccine out of the gate. it has two vaccines that are waiting for approval and it will end its contracts with two big contract manufacturers to make this. they did not provide financial terms for this cancellation and it did not say whether this would affect approval of its vaccine candidates. another big step back for cure vax. let's take a look at a few other things, citrix systems getting a bid, up 4% in the premarket. elliott management had taken a 10% stake in this company and we are learning that the company is in talks with advisors to determine whether there is interest about selling off the company, buyers willing to come in. keep an eye on that stock, and the casino stocks.
las vegas sands fell 10% yesterday during the normal session. another 4% this morning. milko which gets 100% of its revenue from macau is down for five straight days and will be down, and some of the regulatory crackdown. 45 day consultation period started today. tom: thank you so much, romaine bostick. a former prime minister of latvia and a physicist with electrical engineering from the university of maryland, valdis dombrovskis. european commission executive price -- executive vice president and commissioner for trade and what you needed to know eight months ago, 10 months ago, he was in the timeout chair over vaccination. he and others in europe have had the great success story of the turnaround of europe in vaccination. i, thank you so much for joining us. how did you and brussels
turnaround vaccination in europe to 70%? valdis: good morning. indeed, regards to the vaccination campaign, more than 70% of the adult population in europe are vaccinated. what was important in this is the european union was acting on this as a whole so on behalf of the 27 member states who are securing vaccines, and that's what helps to secure this availability. because it is clear that the biggest and richest e.u. countries will secure vaccines on their own, but not the smallest and less developed countries. we need to make sure vaccines are available across europe and have an effective vaccination campaign. tom: how did you sell unvaccinated people? "the new york times" is a
brilliant article on the failure of america to invents the unvaccinated to get -- convince unvaccinated to get vaccinated. valdis: it must be said, if you look at the vaccination rates in the e.u., they are also uneven. there are a number of countries which are lagging behind. there is still lots of work in the e.u. to convince the population to vaccinate, and we are still in this work. vaccination campaigns are run by individual member states, but we are helping always can by providing all necessary evidence and information, helping also to counter disinformation and fake news which we see in this context. it is an ongoing war. jonathan: commissioner, you've made tremendous progress and it is a real turnaround. why do you think with this fantastic process, that europe
has struggled to get the united states to reciprocate on things like travel? why has that been so difficult? valdis: well, i would say the general tendency we see during the pandemic as we have a lot of disruption for travel. we had it within the e.u., but also then we managed to set up what we call in e.u. covid certificate so people can show proof of vaccination or a negative test, so they can travel without additional restrictions. many in the e.u. are using this system, but with regards to other countries, they take their own decisions, and we are still in development in the u.s. because we think it would cause
them to lift travel so the -- restrictions. jonathan: you've called it dialogue. are you making progress? are you further along than a month ago, or are we going nowhere? valdis: at the end of the day, it is a decision for the u.s. to take. the residents are admitting into a country, the point is epidemiological data is a liability of the covid certificates which the e.u. is providing to its citizens. this is a good basis to lift restrictions. lisa: how different is it dealing with president biden rather than president trump on issues like this, and trade? valdis: as regards to trade, as we said, we are now on a much more positive track with a biden administration. several months ago, we resolved a long-standing dispute.
we are now working on resolving another trade tariff done from the trump era which is steel and aluminum. we will be announcing a trade and technology commission for trade and new emerging technologies. think it is important for the e.u. and u.s. to be strategic allies and like-minded partners. lisa: what is the main agreement between the european union and united states when it comes to china and trade negotiations? valdis: as it regards china, we share a number of concerns and to regards to china's socioeconomic model, like the role of state owned enterprises, industrial subsidies and transparency, forced transfer --
technology transfers, intellectual property rights. we agree that we will be cooperating closely and seek common approaches, of course bilateral, but in the context of their trade organization. jonathan: let's hope we can make some progress. commissioner, always fantastic to catch up to you. valdis dombrovskis, executive vice president and commissioner of trade. this is on a day where ursula von der leyen is giving her state of the union address at the parliament today. tom: on twitter, a feed from brussels or strasburg or wherever they are, about vaccination. we mentioned earlier what happened in auckland yesterday and in singapore in the last 18 hours. this is a story, we are all but numbed by it but 1800 people died in america in the last seven days. jonathan: zero tolerance in
places like china, new zealand, australia. in the united states and u.k., a different approach to a similar situation. tom: i mentioned "the new york times" article with cornell tech where john byrne murdoch is out with the ft looking at the quality of illnesses of people over 65, what we hear from johns hopkins. a lot of work that we have to pay attention to. jonathan: futures fading, now i've just two on the s&p 500. yield on tends, 1.27. positive dollar a little more than 1/10 of 1%. the crude rally picking up speed again. 1.33%. from new york city on radio, this is bloomberg ♪ ritika: with the first word
news, i am ritika gupta. governor gavin newsom has turned back a conservative led movement to boot him. 60% -- 67% voted no. democratic leaders have characterized it as a power grab. british prime minister boris johnson will announce changes to his cabinet today. it is to ensure he has a strong and united team. it is also to reach out for the post-pandemic rebuilding. the energy crunch in the u.k. just got worse. a fire and electricity station has shut down a major cable that brings power from france, and will be shut down until august 13 -- september 13 -- october 13. france is the largest power supplier. ever ground is -- chinese
companies have told -- ever grand said to be talking with banks. in paris, this weekend will see the completion of an art project 60 years in the making. the arctic triumph will be wrapped -- the acr de tr -- that have been known for -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am rid of the group to. -- ritika gupta. ♪
the values are changing. we see geopolitical tensions and therefore i think what we need to focus on in order to maintain growth and maintain our conversations and competitive standing in the u.s. and with china. jonathan: the deutsche bank ceo. from new york this morning, good morning. we haven't talked a lot about christian sewing this year. they are not in the news the way they used to be. tom: he has blocked and tackled the mastic retail. they gave him a huge mandate -- domestic retail. they gave him a huge mandate and look what he's done. running for office? jonathan: i don't know about that. the curve is flatter, 1.27 on tends. wti, 1.33%. up to tens of 1% on dollar-euro.
tom: the electricity of david wilson, bloomberg stock editor, calendar item november beckons. david: yes, indeed, and it is the end of the six-month period that has been traditionally bad. so in may, stay away. tom: is that working this year? david: u.s. stocks have been going up, but they kind of put numbers, dollar amounts to the pattern over time, starting with a $10,000 investment back in 1950, looking at the six months that begin in may relative to the six months that begin in november. there is no comparison in terms of performance. if you only invested starting may, you would end up with about $78,000 on total returns.
instead, if you only invested beginning november, about $3 million. tom: $3 million versus 78,000 dollars, but with the crisis in the united kingdom and france, what is so important is your wonderful chart, for on radio, these are straight lines. david: they pretty much are, no question, but you have an even bigger line if you are invested all 12 months. as bannister points out, you would have close to $25 million on a $10,000 investment if you had stayed in the s&p 500 since 1950. tom: the triple leverage cash fund -- you are telling me to go along halloween? david: if you are looking for returns, we aren't at the point yet where you can expect the biggest ones. tom: bring in will kennedy on the crisis in england. jonathan: it feels like a crisis
with the power going through the roof. will kennedy, executive editor for energy and commodities. what's the latest between the france and u.k. as this cable comes into the u.k. and a converter in between? will: there was a fire at the english and of that cable which will knock out the capacity for at least a month. 2000 megawatts, the equivalent of two big nuclear plants. it is a material impact and could not have frankly, come at a worse time. you know, john, power prices and gas prices have been shooting higher in the u.k. and all across europe as european traders deal with a shortage of natural gas going into the winter. in the u.k., we have seen the power jumped to 10 times its last -- it's average over the last 10 years. it is likely to get worse. i think capacity will be stretched in the u.k. for the
next month while they sort out this damage to the fire to repair the plant, and wait for a new cable which was planned to come from norway next month. jonathan: the phone call from my mom a few years ago, she was talking about renegotiating with the power company and they wanted a price that was through the roof. reticular early older generation, they worry about -- particularly the older generation, they worry about power prices in the winter. david: there is a policy -- will: there is a policy in the u.k. to protect people from extremely large increases, so if you take the day today price, that will go up 12% in october. it will hit people hard, but that will remain the increase until next spring when they look at it again and it may go higher . businesses have no such cap and it will feed through quickly into their bills. in a worst-case scenario, the
question that people are asking, does the u.k. have enough power this winter? it is unlikely we get power cuts for ordinary people in their homes, but there may be times sooner rather than later, where factories use a lot less power. in the short term we need to get windier and get the windmills going. lisa: certainly a huge hurdle for the united kingdom and it could not come at a worse time, as oil prices continue to rise. if the winter is cold in the united states, they could see $100 a barrel november or december. how common is that idea across oil? will: people -- oil has been a bit of a laggard in this commodities boom. it sold off early in the summer on the impact on demand from travel due to the delta impact, those have fallen away as china
seems to have gotten on top of their outbreak. we have problems with supply from mexico, fairly constrained, and demand is looking strong. prices of natural gas bleed into the oil market because countries like pakistan are refusing to pay those gas prices and are starting to burn oil again. we have several bullish factors coalescing, which is why some people are bullish about oil. if it gets cold, the countries where people use oil for heating, korea, the usa, japan, it will drive the market higher. jonathan: thank you. come back soon. will kennedy for bloomberg news. that's the world people are seeing, higher prices, higher g energy prices. -- higher energy prices. tom: yesterday in the
literature, the idea of inflation or is -- inflation buttressed up against the inflation wage is getting uglier. lisa: food prices -- jonathan: food prices are just skyhigh. lisa: the highest they've been in decades, and this feeds into inflation, the fact that wages have not kept pace. it is getting worse and the idea that input prices are going up so much faster, i keep going back to this. the inability for companies to continue passing along those price increases to consumers will be something to watch. tom: what we are monitoring at home as the daily consumption of shake shack bacon cheeseburgers and fries. jonathan: how is that going? tom: it is going higher. jonathan: that's what's going on in the keene household, in touch with the average person. tom: 40 calories per fry.
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♪ >> the cobit experience for many businesses has revealed weaknesses in investment decisions. >> delta is plateauing. it will not be a reopening. >> inflation is down the list. >> when you see inflation expectations pickup, they are at levels that are overall consistent. >> they have to at least tell the market that the inflation today is supply-side and.
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