tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 16, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
pushed through. >> the fed has the pedal to the metal and inflation is down the list of worries. >> so long as china keeps slowing down, that will cause problems for the fed. >> i would not be shocked if we have a correction here. we are going to get one at some point. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio alongside lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro together with that fella in the bowtie. if you know you know. equity futures down six on the s&p, down .1%. tk, before we go there, let's talk about the date out this morning. tom: data more important then two to three days ago. we had those two bouts of well maybe it is inflation a little less so to dovetail it into the retail sales makes it more important and it was early in the week. jon: should we have the discussion about the fellow down under. a serious story developing
between the united states, australia, and the u.k.. tom: percolating right now and the battles are tantamount. it's about the distance from -- and the battles are 10 amount. it's about the distance from that south china sea is be vietnam numbing below austell you. the overlay is defense contracts and gazillions and gazillions of french francs and u.s. dollars. paris is furious. jon: i hear the french government is incredibly furious. lisa: but also frankly the chinese government. i wonder how much accelerates the spat between the u.s. and you can china and how it has manifested itself not only from a military standpoint but economically. jon: let's kick it off with i could we -- with equity market price action. this week has dragged on and on. claims, retail sales, just around the corner, futures in six points on the s&p. down .1% after a bounce in the
equity market yesterday. looking at the same thing as you, dollar strength right through g10. euro-dollar negative 1.1769. a lift on yield, 1.3158 on tense. lisa: exciting. i wonder how much markets will move on the print at 8:30 a.m. it has more prints than usual. retail sales coming out and i am curious to see the deceleration we are expecting. what will be the market reaction given cpi and where we came in? are we getting pushback from consumers able to absorb some of the price increases we see. we also see initial jobless claims expected to take up on the hurricane disruptions. and 9:40 a.m., we get the chair and ceo chuck robbins joining a program jon ferro will be posting later on. i'm curious to see how much she talks about supply chain delays, chip shortages, and how much
people are adapting their personal offices to work from home. at 10:00 a.m., july business inventory data that seeds into the same conversation with supply chain just ructions. the idea -- chain disruptions. the idea they have to restock it a holiday season at a time where they do not know how quickly they can get things. there's a sense of how much these have increased costs. if you look at the shipping cost from shanghai to los angeles, nearly triple over the past year. lisa: thank you. the promo for the open later on. lisa: i'm genuinely interested. jon: thank you. you watch bloomberg tv, don't listen to tom. tk, a special congratulations to the team at spacex. tom: just superb. we don't want to take the time here but jon, this has been way underplayed. i take immense issue with mr. bezos and mr. branson. this is a far larger accomplishment into orbit than john glenn of 1962, 365 some
miles up orbiting with the hubble space telescope. this is real space. jon: let's spend more on that, more time on that later. let's get to blackrock global allocations portfolio manager. let's start right here, you trimmed your equity exposure a little bit. walk me through the thinking into year end. >> good morning. so it is not that complicated. i think our view is the stock market will end higher than today but we are in a period where risk is a little heightened. one reason is people are well aware this is seasonally the toughest part of the year. second, the uncertainty around the delta variant, and finally something both you and lisa have been mentioning, supply chain disruptions. this is a big issue, it is affecting the pace of growth, the prices, and it is something we are not used to. we are always used to talking about demand but at least in the near term, this is another factor the markets will be dealing with.
having said all that, we think it is a temporary issue. looking out six to nine months, stocks are higher than today. lisa: where are you trimming? russ: a little bit of our cyclical exposure. one place we have been trimming our financials. we were overweight financials earlier in the year and we have brought that down. part of that is the evolution or thinking about rates. what we do think we will see, some normalization and yields, particularly in real yields, we are not likely to see the melt up people are worried about earlier than the year -- earlier in the year. bond market volatility has been coming down. lisa: a lot of people are talking about this correction, this oppose a correction supposed to happen and everybody wants to buy. yet we have had trigger after trigger when it comes to disappointing data or signs delta is slowing economic recovery in meaningful way for more than just one quarter.
what is the trigger at this point, given all that is well known? russ: i think there are couple things. one of which we haven't spoken about his washington. i do not think there is anything there that represent a long-term issue. we are getting fiscal support, getting a lot of monetary support, but we are likely to get headline risk as we get later into the month, later into october, and congress wrestles with not only the budget package and reconciliation package but also the debt ceiling. to be clear, this will ultimately get resolved, but we are likely to see more headline risk then we have been used to in recent years. jon: i look at where we are and optionality forward. we know everybody is with their narrative, you have a narrative then jeff rosen's narrative. how do you manage in the multiple steps of narratives out there right now? russ: i think this is the ultimate question. you have to start with a baseline.
what is it you expect in the market? i think our baseline is straightforward. the economy is decelerating but we expect better than trans gdp. we think it will be transitory in that environment. we are still long equities even though we have been trimming. we want cyclical exposure, we want to pair that with the secular growth areas we expect to work for year after year, we are less enamored with duration as a hedge, and instead we look to other strategies whether that is long on the dollar, using volatility as an asset class, and you manage from there. you manage unexpected events for your narrative but that is our baseline. tom: maybe it is off your remitted, how do you manage commodities? jon ferro mentioned francisco at bank of america with one hunter dollar oil. how do you manage commodities out one year, two years, four years to win? russ: i think it depends on the commodity.
we do think oil prices are going to remain firm in the near term and we have been having tactical positions to take advantage of that inequity market. other commodities we are less sanguine on. one place there has been a big change in portfolio is gold. 14 months ago, a fairly significant -- we had a fairly significant positioning gold. today we have reduced it to zero. primarily because we think of gold as a hedge against equity risk. that works when you have an environment where real rates are flatter, declining. if part of our view is real rates normalize, that particular commodity is unlikely to work as well as it did in the middle of 2020. jon: that is interesting, a hedge against equity risk but not inflation per se. why is that? russ: i think this is a very important point. gold is often spoken about as an inflation hedge. i do not think that is wrong but you have to look at long horizons. measured in decades, well beyond the investment horizon of most fund managers. if you think about the near term, there are probably better
hedges against inflation of the equity market. rather than own any asset that does not produce cash flow, we would rather hedge some of the near term upside of inflation with stocks that have pricing power in the material sector, industrial sector, consumer sector. companies that can raise prices as input costs rise. jon: a good final point. fantastic two-year points on your portfolio right now. russ koesterich, blacktrock portfolio manager. that is fascinating on the gold point, if you want inflation protection, find it in the equity market and not gold. tom: it has been timeless and it is 47% of s&p 500 turn come dividend reinvestment whatever that number is. that is the one you memorize. lisa, can we stop the show and talk about maximum commitment? lisa: please, go ahead. tom: we have to do that. you look at yields and i will -- jon: i want to know where this is going. lisa: i don't think there's optionality here. [laughter] tom: when you are at halftime,
you are ahead of liverpool, you have a good and beautiful thing and reba got it done in the 40 something minutes. jon: head to the gym tom. tom: i think pharaoh had to be medicated late. jon: i turned it off after 20 minutes, that is the truth. getting ripped apart, really tough. for anyone that remembers 2005, there was an infilling -- infinitely superior football team to liverpool into a dozen five and liverpool came back with this big comeback from 3-0 down. congratulations, liverpool. well done. [laughter] tom: this is the one day all year pharaoh can call it that. jon: why do that now? futures down six on the s&p. unbelievable. down a little more than 1.5 -- .1%. i need more than a tank right now. the division around the outlook for me is fascinating. i know it's for you guys as well.
this was from hsbc this morning. the girl close slowdown is real but expectations are not yet incorporating that efficiently. as such, we retain our outlook on cyclicals. we compare this to j.p. morgan, despite concerns about the recent downshift in economic and business cycle momentum, we remain confident strong growth ahead -- of strong growth ahead. tom: maximum divide wrapped around this pandemic. jon: tom keene comer lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, football free zone for the next couple hours. tom: jordan henderson got it done. jon: we like that goal. anna hand will join us on the equity market. wells fargo security equity strategist. from new york city this morning, good morning to you all, this is bloomberg. berg. >> with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.
this may be the start in new era of spaceflight. spacex launched four civilians. this includes a childhood cancer survivor. isaac pays spacex $200 million for the flight. president biden's economic agenda risks a delay by weeks and months in congress. other issues are unresolved. plus the squabbling between the democratic party progressives and moderate wings. the house committee needs to wrap up work yesterday on the package including $1 trillion in tax increases. turns out the latest missile tested i north korea -- by north korea were fired from a train. this suggests kim jong-un has a new option as a quick strike against u.s. allies in the region in south of korea and japan.
cdc will meet next week to talk about booster shots. this is after president biden's rollout. likely the government will be delayed for a few days. outside experts advise the cdc on how best to administer the vaccine. the risks of a battery fire has general motors appealing it's state. gm told some owners the chevy boat electric car can park and store the vehicles 50 feet away from other cars to reduce the risk of a spontaneous fire. gm recalled all of the 100 32,000 volts sold since 20 fixed -- 2016 to fix the problem. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
indeed the world depends on a free and open pacific flourishing in the decades ahead. this is about investing in our greatest source of strength, our alliances, and updating them to better meet the threats of today and tomorrow. jon: the president of the united states, important new partnership with australia. from new york city this morning, good morning alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this thursday morning, price action shaping up into retail sales and claims earlier this money. we are negative a little more than one points have -- .1%. bonds hire a single basis point higher. the story of the moment come across asset, it has to be in foreign exchange. ella stronger, weaker here. that's to 1.1770 tom: there are nuances in the strong dollar and weak euro. pacific rim is maybe what i would watch. i would also note renminbis
strength and goldman sachs are with a note today speaking of men be strength -- of renminbi strength. right now and asian sport, jack fitzpatrick joins us. we have seven things to talk about in the space here. the distance from north of queensland and karen's to taipei is 3300 miles, maybe spending america. it is something where submarines reigned supreme in their secrecy. we have an uproar this morning as mr. biden teams up with australia to protect taipei. is it that simple? >> it may be focused on taipei and taiwan. it is also a bit broader in terms of protecting shipping lanes. obviously it is a more complex issue than just that because of the expansion of nuclear powered submarines to a non-nuclear
state. there is the questions that president biden just this morning in britain prime minister johnson were trying to defend the business not in conflict with any nuclear accords and playing up that this is not specifically supposed to be an adversarial action toward china but sort of supposed to be focused on regional stability. of course china is at the center of this but it is kind of waiting into a few different tricky issues there trading -- trying to navigate. tom: what is the symbol of this moment for defense, for the stay, for the president versus what we saw with president trump? the event of this yesterday -- i will suggest catching everyone by surprise. what was the symbolism versus trump? >> this kind of snuck up on people. we are not that long before that
he would be speaking on a national security issue yesterday. there was not that much of a buildup it was somewhat of an event. anything that could be stroop -- construed on tough on china, anything played up by the trump administration. in terms of symbolism, it tough on china approach is something that biden seeks to share to some degree with the trump administration but this was probably not quite as much of the fanfare you might have expected from the trump administration. lisa: which raises the question, why now? it seems like a tenuous moment given other issues that have come to the fore with respect to china's markets. why are they willing to go into this endeavor now? >> we are still fairly early in the biden administration and it is a time when they are not absolutely struggling with some
other foreign policy issue. they really wanted to focus on the endo pacific since biden got into office and they juggled crises in the middle east with israel and palestine, the pull out of afghanistan still an issue but not going well. i'm not sure i have a clear explanation as to why right now but it is a priority for the biden administration and something they probably want to get on early in the administration. lisa: what does this mean in terms of the next steps the u.s. are likely to take following this or the phone call with xi jinping and joe biden that ended without much decided? jack: they have inched forward on the relationship with china without real -- your phrase, without much decided has been the phrase of the day or the year for the biden administration.
in terms of its relationship with china, we don't exactly have a read out of exactly what comes next. but these kinds of issues, sort of a greater presence and reliance on other u.s. allies in the endo pacific are obviously a major focus for the biden administration. tom: what is today. there are so many issues in washington. as jack fitzpatrick waking up to figure out what to do with booster shots, are you trying to figure out if our taxes are going up? >> the tax issue is a significant one. leading into next week they have to simultaneously worry about funding the government, because the deadline is september 30 and they are supposed to bring up a stopgap. that may be tied to a debt limit issue. we are late in the congressional
week, there are preparations for what comes up next week. the issue is is a stopgap going to carry a debt limit suspension to avoid a crisis on that in october and november, and probably also may carry afghanistan funds dan hurricane and natural disaster funds. the preparation -- they are usually still working on the tax bill. the preparation potentially being in one package in the future is the most urgent thing in washington. >> always good to catch up with you early in the morning. jack fitzpatrick. have you seen china's response to the partnership with australia and the u.k.? it greatly undermines regional peace and stability, aggravates the arms race and hurts the nonproliferation efforts. that's from the foreign ministry spokesperson. tom: a couple of years ago, my
book of the summer was "the return of marco polo." even better is a wonderful book, "asian cauldron." he goes around the south china sea with a prescient chapter on each nation. i can't remember if he gets to australia. i can't say enough about his efforts to give you an immediate primer on all this politics. the shipping lanes is the key thing. jonathan: it is a story we will stay on top of. the other is economic data in about two hours and five minutes. u.s. equity markets down about five points or six points off the back of a nice lift in the s&p 500 yesterday with a big cyclical drift. a lift if .1%. down .1% on the s&p this morning.
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jonathan: you are all pretending it is thursday. the week is dragging on. this is "bloomberg surveillanc " ." i really nice lift on the s&p yesterday. the russell, negative one third. into the bond market. 10's and 30's. what nephi brutal, if you heard tom keene in your head all day? 130.56. 186.86 on 30's. two medically difficult to do this with a voice in your ear. i will keep it going.
a standard shout. we are underpricing rate hikes over at the federal reserve. we will talk about what that means for the bond market this morning. i want to talk about what it means for the fx market. find me a little price action through g10. euro-dollar negative. that's a stronger dollar story this morning. the final pitstop on the road to the 22nd, the next fed decision. tom: very important. a combination of the two is anyone stadia. full -- is a nuanced idea. ellen zetner is acclaimed for acuity in economics, but she needs someone to do the details. the cond -- econometrics. the gentleman of details joins
at this morning. i want to talk about the detail of the american consumer and retail sales. what is the granularity that matters? robert: thanks are having me, tom. we are expecting it will look softer. it is worth looking back at some of the data we have seen overall for the month, which painted a picture of two things. first is that the delta variant and the impacts have a stronger effect on growth than initially anticipated. we saw that in the payroll report for the month with flat leisure and hospitality hiring. we expect that to show up in the retail sales data. the other factor in that is supply chain affects. auto sales are lower. that will be a drag on the report as well. we see this as a down report but we do think we will turn the corner into the fall. tom: what do you anticipate the
fed will on the 22nd with the granularity you dealing every day? do they just ignore it and say at -- stay at 60,000 feet? robert: that's a great question. we know there is heightened uncertainty. when you think about the modeling, the uncertainty means there is a wide range of outcomes on the forecast horizon. that makes it difficult because the extent of their forecast horizon out through 2024. looking at that far the confidence intervals around the forecasts are extraordinarily wide. when we think about what happens to the forecasts, what might we see, we don't think there is a lot to change out in 2022-2023 and beyond. the data has becoming indifferently. that speaks to the uncertainty
in the modeling. the data will present a picture. jonathan: we will get a forecast and then some kind of evolution of the language. they kind of boring stuff that -- what he looking for in terms of the evolution of the language of the statement? robert: the statement will be interesting. there are a few different signals we could get at the meeting. there is that tapering decision the fed is looking at. there is the dot plot for an indication of what policymakers are thinking of in terms of timing of hikes and pace as we look further on the horizon into 2024. the statement language will look closely at how they signal around that substantial for their progress language. they need inflation and labor markets to me that substantial for their progress task before they consider tapering asset purchases. chair powell told us we met the
test on inflation. they do want to see more in the labor market front. that is where the august downside surprise comes into play and they want to see more there. the next table reports are quite important in that regard. in terms of the evolution of the linkage of the statement, chair powell give us a hint and what that might look like in his jackson hole speech. if the economy does continue to evolve as broadly anticipated, it may be appropriate to taper asset purchases this year. jonathan: he said he would try to aggressively delink tapering from an interest rates decision. robert: it is formalized and we already. the balance sheet and rate hikes are subject to two different standards of guidance. they want to see progress towards their goal to raise rates. they want to see they have achieved maximum employment and they have sustained 2%
inflation. once we move beyond what they view to be these transitory factors that pushed it up so far this year. there are different tests. they can put emphasis on the distinction between those tests. at the end of the day it raises an interesting question. the decisions are separated. we will get an indication on the taper signal alongside a dot plot that will give us a sense of where policymakers are on the timeline of when they think about raising rates. lisa: give us your assessment of where we are on this inflationary type of debate that keeps going on in the background as we get these -- robert: it comes back to this retail sales story. the august trend looks soft to us. we expect the report this morning to be a down report. we still think the fundamentals are there to support our rebound
and consumption -- in consumption as you move ahead. when it comes to resolving these inflation versus low activity issues, a lot of that comes down to the -- we expect the anchor mental progress there but that remains an issue. we got a sense of how things are looking in the inflation report earlier this week. it did suggest some inflationary pressures on the margin cooled a little in august. we have to watch that to judge if we will get a second wind from the transitory effects that could be exert themselves into the end of the year. lisa: this is a controversial point. people pointed to the cpi and said this feels inaccurate to us. take an example of rent, and how much it increased market gauges.
it increased many times more than the cpi print. housing prices going up at how much rents are likely to follow. does the cpi print -- is the cpi print misleading? robert: there are lots of technicalities are and how the rents and rents data are computed in the cpi. sometimes it takes time for signals we might be getting in industry data. it takes time for this to get into the pipeline of the housing costs measured in the cpi because of how slow turnover rates and housing and technicalities of the measurement of how it is put together. in terms of looking at the top line numbers, the core cpi of .1%, it is worth noting that it was a narrow miss in things like airfares and payback in the used cars. if you look like the timmed mean cpi measures for the inflationary signals for the
pce inflationary gauge, things look different on the margin. when you strip out some of that noise, you saw the softening in the inflation pressure that came in the august report was narrow in scope. tom: whole foods looks different than it looked a year ago. our viewers and listeners are looking at grocery store inflation through the roof. there is no way to put it here. how do you respond to that when you talk about trimming this or that? robert: yeah. you see headline measures of inflation pushed up. that is reflective of broad costs consumers are facing. the old adage, we want to know what inflation is going to do next year or the year after. to do that we have to get a sense of the underlying trend. to get a sense of the trend we look at the measures, the mean
measures. they tend to be better predictors of what the trend will look like going forward. hi food costs, high energy costs take a bite out of the consumer wallet. that's important to note and certainly important to note near-term. we have to parse out if they has a signal about the inflationary trend or if they are two different issues. jonathan: rob, thank you, sir. a couple of stories this morning including the new partnership between the u.s., u.k. and china. here is a response with the state affiliated global times out of china. an editorial. "if australia acts with bravado to show its allegiance to the united states and takes the most comic position in the u.s. anti-china strategy, especially by being militarily assertive, canberra will likely become a
target of beijing's countermeasures to send a warning to others." that pushback is starting to ramp up. tom: i will go back to a single chapter. that is an ancient fear of submarines. this would not be under discussion if it was boats or aircraft carriers, you name it. there is something about submarines that gets nations all riled up. jonathan: some tensions we will explore for the morning. good morning to you all. your equity market and jobless claims. down seven on the s&p. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: it will not be all sightseeing for the first civilian crew of a manned space mission. spacex launched them into orbit from the kennedy space center.
they will conduct medical research. the passages include a tech billionaire, jared isaac meant. -- isaacman. estrosi is joining a new indo pacific security partnership. eager but was unveiled by the leaders of the three countries in a virtual meeting. the partnership has france upset because it allows australia to acquire nuclear powered summaries. australia agreed to buy as many as a dozen from the french. mark milley -- a new book says the general spoke with a top chinese general twice, telling them the u.s. would not suddenly go to work. a pentagon spokesman says it is part of millie's job and president biden has great confidence in milley. the future of macau.
beijing wants to appoint government representatives to casino companies. it also was local shareholdings in the company and require them to get approval before seeing dividends. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
mandate in place for every single employee. we can do it best when people are in-person. it is time for everyone to be back where they can do the best work, which is the office. we are consolidating our vaccination effort for public employees, making sure getting to full strength is crucial for the city. jonathan: the new york city mayor bill de blasio. big money for economic data at 8:30 eastern. futures down 6. nasdaq futures down 32. yields going nowhere on 10-year bonds. euro-dollar going somewhere negative. you have a weaker euro and a stronger dollar and crude hanging in there. $72.50 on wti. tom: we had a 76 print for a cup of coffee. four dollars from $80 a barrel
gets my attention. at the end of this fun week we are having. seriously, up the mississippi river, of the ohio river -- up the ohio river, the next part of the pandemic. jennifer nunzo joins us. this thing is migrating north, up the mississippi and ohio. this new agony of 1900 deaths a day? jennifer: nobody should get complacent. the weather is getting cooler and it raises the possibility we could see cases and places that had not seen it the previous weeks. i am much less worried about it compared to the southeast, which has been hammered by the virus. tom: i'm confused over boosters.
we are all confused. i used to dread going to the doctor to get whatever the booster was because it always hurt more. is the booster going to hurt more? dr. nuzzo: i don't think so. my second shot did not feel like anything. i think a lot of america is confused. we have not had the scientific community come together and formally evaluate it. that will happen on friday with the fda advisory committee. we will see what they say. my guess is there is clearly a case for third shots for immunocompromised. that's already happening. they might be evidence for people over 65. i am not you convinced anybody else needed at this time. lisa: i love that tom asks the real question. is it going to hurt? do i need a lollipop? we talk about boosters.
who do we listen to? can we trust pfizer who made this big presentation on how important boosters are and how your immunity wanes after the initial two doses? dr. nuzzo: i think you can trust the fda committee and the advisory committee. they will meet next week. they will be tearing into the actual data and looking at it and making adjustments. whatever they recommend, i think it is likely to be a consensus. lisa: we got news that china has vaccinated more than one billion of its residents. of its citizens. how important is that given the echo vacancy -- efficacy of that vaccination? dr. nuzzo: it is important. every vaccine is a serious illness averted. although the vaccine used in china is less protection than others, it is fairly good at keeping people out of the hospital.
that remains my topline goal for vaccines. that said, i think china and other countries are going to be looking for additional doses in the future. my overarching priority is we need to make sure we get first and second doses into arms before we think about the third doses. tom: peter is fired up that we have succeeded at mrna, for which rich, wealthy nations -- we need to figure out a covid kill order for poor nations, africa, india, you name the rest as well. from where you sit in your research, how close are we to a successful non-fancy vaccine for the rest of the world? dr. nuzzo: i reject our mrna vaccines are not appropriate for the rest of the world. they are potentially being used. people worry about cold temperatures. we are learning more about the stability echo temperatures. africa has proven its ability to
maintain a cold chain. we need to start doing more with the vaccines we have to improve access. i think there are other vaccine candidates on the horizon that will add to it. we need more vaccines and we have right now. i will take them all, absolutely. tom: i look will be art and it's about the booster. one of my going to get a booster? is a booster upon us? dr. nuzzo: my guess is that if the fda committee endorses anything, it may be boosters over the age of 65. i think that might be next offering. we will see. the president is eager to push these but we need to let the scientists evaluate the data. not to distract from our topline mission which is to get first and second vaccines and arms. jonathan: got to leave it there.
dr. jennifer nuzza. i think most people are confused about the booster. should they go and get one or not? wait for the weekend? tom: good morning, ken langone. i gotta know from nyu langone. they remember me and gleam l me -- email me the moment they get the booster in. jonathan: a personalized message? tom: and pick up the two by four's at home depot. a martini on the rocks. jonathan: when i was a kid you would go to the dentist and get a lollipop afterwards. what is that about? that makes a lot of sense. lisa: i think what i'm going to say is when it comes to boosters, a lot of the stems of
the lack of clarity about how much you are protected against the delta variant with the current vaccination regime. that is the data we are seeing. people are more hesitant. they canceled plans and conferences and hotel rooms. did you see how much new york city is losing from the hotel revenue? $4 billion is the estimate this year. it just bid it -- it is estimated to be north of $60 billion for the hotel industry. tom: can i give a shout out here? i was at mcdonald's on 3rd avenue and i rented john tisch of lowe's. i said how's it going? great optimist and all that. the family is building a hotel in dallas, texas. the fact is they are building rooms amongst all this. jonathan: i think a story is true. tom: i had a double cheeseburger and he was going for the -- jonathan: down six on the s&p.
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♪ >> at the end of the day, it's part of the business that wins out. >> the fed the pedal to the metal, and inflation is down the list of worries. >> as china keeps slowing down, that is going to keep causing problems for the fed. >> i wouldn't be shocked if we get a correction. we are going to have one at some point. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: retail sales 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down six after yesterday's rally. we are down a little more than 0.1% on the s&p 500. it is about claims. it is about retail sales. tom: of course, all of this to the fed meeting and what it means for the stock market. if you are getting out of your