tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg September 17, 2021 10:00am-11:00am EDT
johnson. guy: friday the 17th, 3:00 p.m. in london, 10:00 a.m. in new york. we are 30 minutes into a big volume trading day in the u.s. alix steel in new york. alix: one of my desert indicators. i love this. we will get to that in a second. the story yield, yield, yield. we are above that 200 day moving average. 1.41 is the 100 day moving average. equity on the downside, up five point sent --0.5%. oil having the best run of weeks since early july.
we are seeing a touch of volatility. the last three days, we have seen a lot more volatility picking up. the energy index is down 0.3%. all the softness and a lot of movement in the equity market. guy: let's break it down. this is september data. headline number, 71. that is up from the previous but below expectations, 72. expectations go up to 67.1 versus 65.1. what about inspiration? alix: coming back in line with estimates. we have seen inflation expectations 4.7%. coming in line, but that does not seem to be denting expectations at this point. guy: no, but it continues to tick higher.
this year one year and 4.7. the story of the consumer looking at inflation and being worried about it is something we are going to have to pay attention to and central bankers as well. when it starts to get invented, that starts to be a factor. what are we to say when we have richard cardi from the university of michigan ready to talk about the data? what should i be taking away from these numbers? >> good morning. i think the basic story is that consumers were slightly more optimistic about the future but not so much. they still expect the economy to struggle through the end of this year with the delta variant. they expect slight increases in the employment rate.
what we really see is the impact of inflation. consumers now think buying conditions for household durables are the worst being reported. there was only one survey in 1980 that recorded a more negative decline. the worst declines are all caused by housing prices. people think now is the time to postpone. alix: if the expectation index is still holding up, do i read into that that consumers don't like buying stuff today, but that they feel ok about it in a year? >> that is exactly right. they hope and actually think that inflation or prices of products will start edging downward or at least not go up anymore in the year ahead.
they think it will be a better time to buy these big-ticket items, especially homes and vehicles. postponing them into the year ahead when they might expect some declines, but they don't expect any further rises. guy: this sounds like something the fed is not going to be worried about. consumers are going to defer rather than spending now. if they worried about inflation, you would by now because you would assume prices would be higher further down the road. that is not what you are saying. you are saying consumers think it is transitory. >> they do. if you look at the difference between the one year and the five-year inflation expectation, the one year has gone up 2.1 percentage points over a year ago. the long-term rate has only inched up 0.2%. they think inflation is well
anchored. they expect a decline in inflation during the year ahead. alix: the longer term outlook for the economy also hit a decade low. is there anything else aside from the rising prices that could be more endemic that is in their? >> the five-year question is a good predictor of the overall economy and the future. i think consumers now judge the economy. they are hesitant to judge the economy favorable because of the vast changes in fiscal monetary policies that are about to occur. we don't know what they will do. one of the big impact is on inflation. consumers, if you believe that the excessive monetary and
fiscal policies will cause rapidly rising prices, then consumers have two reactions. one is the old reaction of demanding higher wage increases, but that reaction takes some time to develop and leads to higher long-term inflation rates. the other reaction is to look at what they are complaining about, living standards, and that is real income. in the past we focused on nominator pricing, inflation, but consumers may now focus on numerator, income. they may expect higher net income because the pandemic if it did not teach anything else to consumers about the economy is that these transfers were very effective in avoiding some of the great disparities among
those who have suffered the most. it does not take any stretch of the imagination because inflation and unemployment have always been linked as the two primary problems that consumers start thinking the government should add to their spending levels of aid for those who are most affected negatively by the inflation rate, which are low income households. guy: it is aggressive. this time last month, we were all standing here quite surprised by the speed at which the data had come off. the market was expecting something up here, but we got something down here. over the last month when you have looked at the data, what else have you been able to take away? what else have you been able to deduce from that big miss we got
last time around? >> that big decline i mentioned last time was more on the motion than actual -- on emotion rather than actual economic data. consumers are still hesitant from this pandemic. they correctly recognized times were getting worse. emotions, one of the signal characteristic of a motion is it makes -- of the motion is it makes people act and react faster. -- of emotion is it makes people act and react faster. those that thought this was an illusory decline that would soon snap back that has not occurred. we are still close to the low we had in august. that is one of the main
takeaways that this shift was because of the anxiety being felt. it caused them to readjust their expectations almost immediately. alix: professor, we love breaking this down with you. it is so valuable. we will see you next month. what i found interesting as well is who was seeing the most stressful? what stood out was younger, richer, and more educated households say they are complaining about rising prices, meaning it is not just the lower income, less educated households. i wonder how permanent inflation expectations can become when it moves up the wealth jane? -- chain? guy: what i took away was most people continue to see this as a temporary phenomenon. if you were to expect inflation to go up and stay up, prices were going to rise month on
month, you would buy now because things would be more expensive down the road. this feels like it stands in contrast to what we got from the retail sales number yesterday. mike's point about it being driven by higher prices is interesting could if you were to suspect that you could get better value further down the road, you would way. that does not appear to be what is happening judging by the retail sales number. maybe there is an inflation impact in there. alix: are we going to see more pressure on growth? the key growth stories we have already talked about. you are seeing equities on the lows of the session. you are rising higher on bond yields. the dollar is spiking higher. it is that time when traders pay up for hedges. a lot of volatility now and around the close.
>> our data would suggest something a little different. i think people are protective for a 5% to 10% move. if it gets going, it could be more severe. either we are going to get nothing. we just sort of flatline. or we have something greater than 10%. i don't think people are protected for something like that. that is what our data suggests. that is the way we are leaning. the risk report for the index
right now is not very good. that is why we are trying to help clients do well with bank trades and pick stocks. guy: mike wilson speaking to us yesterday. chief equity strategist. alix: good catch. guy: he does not do economics. he does economics tangentially. what he was saying, the market is paying up. it is paying up a lot more for points than calls. -- for puts than calls. retail investors are buying a lot of puts. they are trying to protect their downside. his point was they are protecting down to around a 10% drop. what may happen is you get a bigger drop, and that blows everybody out of the water. it starts to snowball at that point.
today, you have witching, superstrong volume. it will be interesting to see how this works its way out. the market is paying up. the headline skew looks fairly even. if you take a look at the pricing, that is where the gap emerges. alix: you can see when the line declines, it means puts are getting more expensive. we are well up where we were back in march. goldman says you can see about $3.4 trillion in equity options mature on friday. that is a lot. that is a lot happening over the next few hours. it is good to see you on friday. what are you making of the options action right now? >> as you mentioned, the skew is very eccentric. i don't think it is going to be below price.
even if you go down further, if you take a measure of convexity, if you look at puts or options, there is a lot of put buying, protection for even deeper selloffs. what this makes unique is market makers are shot options. they hedge themselves. as the market goes down, they have to sell more. if the market goes up, they have to buy more. what this has meant is historically any moves going into calls expiration gets accelerated. over the last few weeks, we have a softer market. those moves could get exasperated a bit more. i do want to call it a crash or anything like that. we could see a bigger bounce as
that pressure abates. guy: that's has been the history over the last few months. those are the lows. is that what we can expect this time around? if you are looking at the market from 30,000 feet and look at the chart over the last few months, is this the moment you want to be stepping in? is today going to be the day once we have this expiration through? >> everything else being equal, i want to say yes. you are talking about a few percent extra edge today. it is not just a question of the last few months. if you go back 10 or 15 years, this has been consistent. the long-term, we always advise buy or sell during depending on
how the market is moving. alix: i know we are talking about the professional investors. i wanted to ask about retail. if we have that 10% drop, retail investors have been buying more voraciously. there are signals that they are in the market, but not as much. those etf's are not having the same volumes you might expect. do you have a sense of that part of the market? >> yes. that is a great question. it can be confusing when you talk about retail. we divide retail into two categories. we divided into 401k's, mutual funds, indirect. and then investors buying stocks. the story has been over the last few months is that the mutual funds flows have been strong. the direct investment stock has
been the ones who have been fading. that fading has accelerated. endowments have been selling to the rally. this is a mixed picture. direct etf investors are much more active, usually tend to be contrarian. they buy when the market goes down and sell when the market goes up. guy: how do buybacks confuse what we are going to see in the options market? >> the buybacks are more of a long-term show. it is not really relevant today. what we have seen is buybacks look at the dollar value of buybacks. cash companies, -- given where the level of the market is,
historically, if you look at market cap, that has hovered around 3% or so. that is much lower than what it was the last few years. companies are slowly coming back and buying back. given where the market is, does not appear to be as strong. alix: just wait if we get those buyback taxes. that is a different story. correlations, are we moving as one story on the market? are investors comfortable buying individual stocks? >> if you look at correlations to what has been happening in the market, they are extremely high. the reason for that is there is one factor going on right now if you want to call it the covid factor. that is really driving everything. what that means is there is a lot of dispersion because some
stocks benefited. overall for the entire market, confidence is not really high. there is one factor driving the market. guy: great stuff. perfectly timed as we watch what is happening on the markets. we will see how volatile today's session is and how we work our way through this volume significantly higher. thank you very much. what we are going to talk about next, potential etf giants about a possible merger. invesco traditionally very active. this is a huge nod toward a passive and etf. and etf.
managers being forced to merge. one passive. >> what we are talking about is the possibility that invesco may get together with state street asset management arm. state street global advisors. this has not come from nowhere. we reported last december that state street was looking at alternatives in the asset management business, even considered getting together with invesco then. it did not happen. you have this possibility we are going to get a deal. when you look at the exchange traded fund industry, which both companies are in, you can understand why they would be interested in getting together. basically it is a two horse race. you have blackrock and vanguard. state street is a distant third. invesco is fourth.
all in terms of assets under management. if you put the two companies together, you would have a larger number and perhaps more competitive in number. state street has other as pdr's, and invesco has the qqq, one of the biggest etf's behind spdr. you are talking about putting together fairly large companies in this industry. invesco has not even managed to keep up with state street over the last five years. about a year ago, you had an activist investor step in, which is now the fourth largest holder in the company. a year ago when they disclosed their investment, he was talking about how invesco needed to get bigger to compete with the likes of blackrock and putting it
together with state street, you would have a bigger organization. that really shows up in terms of numbers when you look at asset managers globally. state street number five on the list. it would fall to number three when you add in invesco. alix: thank you very much. active versus passive conversation is going to be coming up as we come out of covid. coming, president biden's tax plan and the impact on u.s. companies. kristin bitterly joins us next. what does it mean if you want to buy back stock? what does it mean if we are going to see a corporate tax rate of 26%, not 28%? this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪
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the very top while ordinary americans, the people who built this country, have been basically cut out of the deal. i have said this from the time i announced i was going to run. i believe this is a moment of potentially great change. this is our moment to deal working people back into the economy. alix: that was president biden speaking about his economic agenda yesterday. the house ways and means committee has already approved parts of his agenda. the big stumbling block is the senate. nothing really came out of that, right? >> axios has this report that senator manchin was unable to be persuaded by the president in regards to the top line figure of $3.5 trillion. even if the president pushes and says what if it means we won't potentially get bipartisan infrastructure, it does not
look like senator manchin is budging. kyrsten sinema has apparently been running her own spreadsheets. she is uncomfortable with that $3.5 trillion top line. the president cannot lose their vote. in the house, it is more of a wiggle room. they can lose three votes. in the senate, they need every single senator to sign up for this. guy: amh, i think we are going to need to get a little more granular in terms of the way corporate taxes need to be analyzed. we are expecting corporate taxes to go up. whatever the number is where we are going to land. we have other taxes that are going to hit different sectors of the u.s. economy differently. what i am trying to understand now is what does a foreign earnings taxation look like? all these satellite elements
around corporate tax policy that will affect different sectors in different ways, what do we know? >> broadly, you can see the direction of travel in terms of higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations. there are two places to hone in, fossil fuels and pharmaceuticals. fossil fuel companies, all of their foreign income has been exempted from taxes. in the u.s., under this plan they would have to pay taxes. there is something in the u.s. called the superfund. this was created to make sure you had the money on hand to clean up waste issues. the democrats want to extend that to 2032. in our analysis, it means these chemical fossil fuel companies could end up paying $38 billion in taxes. we have to see if the democrats are able to agree on this. there is this debate on whether
or not the u.s. government should be negotiating with pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices. a second follow along would be if they do not negotiate lower prices, they could get find. those are two industries i would focus on. the big winner be anything green. clean energy companies, they can potentially get a lot of tax breaks. the follow-on's from those companies. if you are a consumer and by an electric vehicle, you could get tax breaks. guy: that has been a phenomenon over here for quite a while. the debate needs to get a little more nuanced. we are dealing with the tax story. we don't know what it is ultimately going to look like. the second story is going to become fascinating. thank you. great stuff. i think this is where the debate is going to go, into the specific sectors. from an equity point of view,
you would have thought the debate needs to get more nuanced. alix: yes to nuance. also the capital gains tax rate. i wonder how that will shift any kind of selling in the short term if it is not a retroactive tax. there is the macro and then the individual sectors. guy: if it is retroactive, does that mean it actually has no effect because effectively you have already gone past the point where you can sell to protect yourself? there is no point anymore. alix: possible. guy: if it is not retrospective, then there could be more of a market implication. all of this detail is where we need to focus our attention. let's bring in kristin bitterly, citi bank. let's start off big picture. when we got the tax cuts, the
market did not price those in until the last minute. once it became real, the markets aggressively priced them in. at the moment, it feels as if the equity market is not pressing in the possibility of tax hikes. we were talking to mike wilson yesterday of morgan stanley. his view is when it becomes real, the market will go from zero to 100 super quick. is that your perspective? >> yes. this is something we have seen in the past. until it is known, it is hard to reposition your portfolio on the basis of something that could happen. one of the baskets we track is we look at those tax beneficiaries. this is more on the corporate taxation side. we look at those companies that had a big benefit several years ago and those that would stand to have a risk looking forward. when you look at that basket, it has not moved at all. that is something.
it could create volatility going into year-round based on what you are discussing. is it retroactive, is it not? that could have individual investors making decisions. alix: it would be easy to say it would be a simple as go ahead and sell the tax winners from trump's tax plan and buy the ones that are going to be reversed. are there any that are specifically on the docket or chopping block when it comes to this tax plan that we have not seen in the last few years? >> the issue we have in terms of making these decisions is you have to look at this as one variable. there are a lot of variables. the potential movement of rates is going to drive some sector rotation. we are also looking at, just in terms of delta and that covid
cyclical, what our strategy has been, which addresses these concerns, taxes, pandemic, is leaning into quality. this is an environment where security selection is important. also leaning on quality companies that have strong balance sheets that have been consistently able to grow their earnings and dividends. look at a portfolio strategy that addresses a lot of these concerns to get through the next couple of months and years. guy: when you look at -- just to come back to a sector by sector analysis, the health care sector has huge earnings as does the tech sector. the tech sector has seen huge gains. does the latter factor come into play? >> when we look at the actual
sectors that are expensive, this becomes challenging from a portfolio allocation standpoint. look at the rally we have seen in the share prices. maybe we start with tech. the share prices we are seeing now have been legitimized by really strong crop it -- corporate profits and earnings. even pre-covid, increases of 30%, you see strong earnings. it is driven by what is meant going forward. bringing this back to taxes as part of it, but back to the earnings discussion in terms of which companies have that ability to grow earnings. we are still looking at 7% to 8% over the next two years, which in any normal market would be healthy. alix: you have house majority leader steny hoyer saying they are going to vote on that
bipartisan infrastructure package. some individuals in the senate are trying to push a tax on corporate buybacks. corporate buybacks have been a huge support for the market. what happens if echoes away? -- if that goes away? >> kit has been a big support. in terms of looking on a relative basis, we have seen that is a big case for european and u.k. equities as well in terms of driving flows into that region. it has been supportive of the market. it is something these quality companies have been able to drive. at this point we are not making any portfolio decisions based on that. alix: thanks a lot. we love having you on. kristin bitterly, city private bank head of capital markets. i cannot tell you how important this is if you live in new york city.
>> this is bloomberg markets. you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. coming up, bloomberg tv 1:30 p.m., 6:30 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. alix: we are six weeks away from the new york city mayoral race where eric adams will be running against curtis stillwell. david: thank you so much. thank you for joining us today. you can imagine at bloomberg there is a lot of conservative business community about wall street. it has not always been happy with the mayor in recent years. you said you wanted to change that. how would you change it? >> first, we must hit reset.
i have been spending the last few years really speaking with my business leaders and hearing from them, not trying to interpret from my point of view what they need to do business in the city but to find out from them. what i have heard over and over again public safety. we know how to run our business, but we want to do it in a safe environment. from day one, i have to turn around this crime issue we are facing. david: do you talk to the heads of the big banks? do they tell you what they need? >> i have communicated with the top end of everything from those who are part of our major financial institutions. hearing from them, cfo's and finding out what do we need to create an environment in the city that is not to affordable,
too expensive. cities are made up of agencies. if those agencies are not made -- welcoming to businesses, then you are not going to have a welcome feeling in your city. david: is the one thing you hear from the business community is you need the cities streets to be safer? >> you do hear that. this is a city that our trademark is the fact we can move large quantities of people during our transportation system. we have the best transportation system on the globe. who wants to be on a subway system where not only if you are physically attacked but you are reading every day about an attack. perception is reality. we want to have a safe subway system utilizing the manpower of
the transit police officers. we want to make sure our streets are safe by targeting gun violence and gang violence in the city. what happened the other day in midtown where a person was dining, and they were shot. that is unacceptable. having a three-year-old shot in times square. who wants to be a tourist in a city where you believe you are in danger? david: do we need more cops? >> no. we need to utilize the police officers we have. we have never had a mayor that understood the foundation of our city. i am the first mayor that really understands policing. historically mayors have turned their police departments over to the commissioners. i am not going to do that. i am going to create a police department where my police officers know that i have their backs. they are going to ensure they
understand the nobility of public protection. david: one of the things we hear from people, including ray kelly , part of the problem with new york city police's we put too many constraints on them. we are too concerned about their behavior on the street. we have kept them from doing their jobs. >> think about this for a moment. a police officer has an authority no one else has, not even the president of the united states. they can take life and liberty. we have to have proper oversight. proper oversight should not be demonizing those men and women who put on that uniform and protect us every day. we can have the right level of the justice we deserve and the safety we need. i am going to bring that to new york. david: can you do that and not have the abuses we have seen? >> yes, we can. i believe we wait too long to get rid of the small number of police officers that do not
really respect what it is to wear that badge and uniform. once you send the right message with the right police commissioner and chief, you will see a change in the dynamics of policing. >> can you do that with the police union? >> yes, you can. i know the heads of the police unions. i believe you can communicate with them. the bad guys are watching us squabble with each other. it is time for the good people of the city to understand we need each other, and we can build that relationship. david: let's talk about the new york city economy. it has taken a blow. where do you think it is on the recovery road? >> i believe we are starting up. the way we get our economy back has to do with public protection but also getting covid under control. that includes i believe the state and city must come up with
clear guidelines of what are safe office environments so we don't have a case where someone contracts covid-19. if it is this is can feel comfortable about getting people back into the offices, i need that accountant back into his office so he can go down to the local restaurant and get business traveling. that is the ecosystem we need. david: that is one of the key questions. if you walk around and happen, it has come back, but not all the way back. office workers are not back. where are we in the process of bringing them back? >> i think some companies have done a great job. i look at what rxr is doing and what other companies are doing. we need to tell our employees, let's put our toe in the water and then a foot and then our entire bodies. there is a reluctance to come
back. it is about fear of covid in the delta variant. this is a city where there are 10 million dreams vibrating. we need to wake up and ignite all of those dreams. we do it with public safety, safety from covid and ensuring people can come back to their office spaces. david: how do you have that public safety and safety from covid in the subway? a lot of office workers are concerned about taking the subway. >> people have been come comfortable -- have become comfortable with putting on their masks. i believe new yorkers have adjusted to covid. it is the lack of safety i hear too often when i use the subways. we need to zero in on those individuals dealing with mental
health illnesses who never received the proper services. i would reinstitute the new york city transit police homeless service outreach unit partnered with mental health professionals and be proactive in getting people out of our system that has created the actual and perceived fear we are witnessing. david: the unemployment rate in new york city was about double the national average. what can we do to get jobs? >> we are dealing with about a 10.2, and i think the number is being reported lower than what it is. september is going to reveal a lot to us. i think many people have stopped looking for jobs. we need to reignite our system. i want to put in place an unprecedented relationship with our business community and those seeking jobs. we want to centralize one application process. fill out one application and
have our business leaders list all of the available jobs so we can start matching individuals together. i had a great partnership conversation with businesses in the city to talk about how we create that synergy. david: which leads us to the question of we have talked about what the business community wants from you. what do you say that you want from them if you become mayor? >> i must say the level of excitement from business leaders, i did not have to reach out and find them. they found me. they said we want to help. this is our city. we want to help. we need those jobs that are available. the centralized database to match with those seeking jobs. i want my business leaders to look at historical problems in our city and say let us use our research to help come up with
solutions. i believe those not receiving proper education, even dyslexia, a lot of inmates at rikers island are dyslexic. why can't we use our tech workers to come up with ways to screen dyslexia early so we can give the proper resources to families? i want to look at our sick care system. it is unsustainable. why can't we use technologies to have great health and hospital systems? use the abilities of research to get things done to have a city that is a smarter city where we can end the inequalities and inefficiencies. david: this is a great city. are we on the way back? we had broadway reopened this week. we need tourists. give us a sense of the rejuvenation of new york.
how can we come back? can we come all the way back? >> we never left. new yorkers were waiting for the opportunity. i am excited about the possibility. our babies today, they have their covid moment. history has shown never count out america. the reason is you never counted out new york. resiliency is in our dna. this is an amazing city. i like to borrow from brooklyn night when he said it. we are going to come back because we are made of the best stuff on earth. we are new yorkers. david: thank you for being with us. mr. eric adams, brooklyn borough president and academy --nominee for mayor. alix: as someone who lives in brooklyn and grew up in new york
city, i totally feel that new york pride. guy: 100%. this is a city that has been through so much and continued to deliver. there are new challenges every turn. crime is one of them. we were just hearing about that. you have been talking about songs the last few days and weeks. that draws a line on what is happening in washington. you look at the tax story. there are new challenges. the dynamism is always there. you have that dynamic ability to adapt to change. you should be all right. alix: i guess you could say this for many different contexts, but the change we are looking at in terms of work from home is going to be a longer-term issue. you need that person to come in and go to work so he can go by lunch -- go buy lunch at the local store. if you only have that three days a week, how do you recalibrate
that? that is going to be a long-term effect for new york. it is in part a ghost town in midtown where we are. i think that is going to be something to reckon with. guy: we don't know yet. the last two weeks has seen a huge influx of people back into london. are those people going to be coming back to days a week or five days a week? i don't know yet. alix: it is a different thing vaccination over there and you don't have florida. guy: no, but we have paris and brexit and all kinds of factors. these cities, aggregation has been important. has technology changed that? we will find out. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy johnson and alix steel. guy: 30 minutes until the close. minus taking another hit. iron ore dropping below $100 a ton. the brutal collapse in that commodity continuing. you kate retail sales shockingly dropped a fourth month in a row. is the economic momentum in the u.k. stalling? people could be out having fun, socializing. this is crucial data. the boe meets next week. travel stops surging as the u.k. is expected to announce a significant shift in covid travel policy. it could come this afternoon. markets look like this.