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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  September 21, 2021 1:00am-1:58am EDT

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manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai, i am manus cranny, tom mackenzie alongside me in london. we are "bloomberg daybreak: europe." there are ongoing ever grant debt concerns. -- ever granted debt concerns. and bill dudley says the fallout from china real estate will not stop the fed from signaling its
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own track to taper. shell sells its permian basin for $9.5 billion as it plans to distribute $7 billion to shareholders. good morning. my favorite line from reading, was yesterday a rational de-risking, were we already traveling at extreme altitude? that is a very lofty call. good morning. tom: and we talked in the past how this is been an unloved rally, and that was permeating what we saw in the price action yesterday, but it is also reflected in the positioning by stocks traders around some of these defensive derivatives. we can show you a chart that shows demands, the skew chart, it is the steepest since 2018. these stock investors have been hedging this rally. manus: hedge meet up before you
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go-go. channel my inner wham! here is the debate. ivanka of edge versus morgan stanley. this is what he had to say in terms of buy that bounce, you had the worst rout in 16 months, but here is what he said, the market selloff escalated overnight, i merely technical selling flows but the primary thesis remains unchanged. buy the dip. morgan stanley says it is far enough, they talk about a 10% or even 20% correction. tom: that is david wilson from morgan stanley with a more irish view, but you saw that bit toward the end of the session yesterday which brought to the s&p back from those intraday lows we sell, and the futures pulling up a 5/10 of a percent right now. let's check on the markets for the up-to-date context.
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in asia, you have china closed for a national holiday, so bear in mind. the nikkei down sharply today, japan laying catch-up. msi i -- the msci asia pacific down. the crypto space is feeling the risk off mood as well, down more than 10%, bitcoin around the $42,000 level. the bloomberg dollar index is just a smidge lower, as you can see. that is being reflected across the fx space. manus: and a big note, they want to be long the dollar to em as a hedge. let's continue the fallout narrative and where we are. evergrande dominated the headlines and juliette saly has the latest. juliette: we are continuing to see evergrande trade at decade lows. also for the day down about 7%.
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we are looking ahead to thursday when interest on their bonds are due, and a default is likely, and that hasn't sent shockwaves into the market today. the hong kong hang seng off about fortunes of 1%. there has been a dip back into the more brought property sector after a number of developers refuted the reuters report on the crackdown in the sector. i want to show you evergrande's bonds, it has continued to fall as well and it is taking its losses since may down by 75%. as tom was mentioning, china out of action today. you've been seeing the evergrande woes following through the nikkei, a lot of chinese exposed stocks in japan falling today, and the nikkei is a leading the region down today. you have a rebound coming through in macau gaming casino players today, the overhang has
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been a little too fast, people buying the dip. and also airline stacks -- stocks as the u.s. will open to travelers. tom: conoco phillips has agreed to acquire royal dutch shell's permian -- permian basin assets. what more can you tell us about this deal? >> it is another big deal in the oil space, where we are seeing more and more consolidation taking place as the producers try to gain scale. this is one of the largest deals in the space this year. it will certainly give conoco phillips a greater footprint, one of the biggest oil patches in the u.s. market. it is a good deal with in the
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scene we are seeing of further consolidation in the industry. manus: thank you very much, manuel, on a monster deal for conocophillips. the exit polls are projecting canadian prime minister justin trudeau is poised to win a third term in a snap election but will end up short of regaining the parliamentary majority he was desperately seeking. let's get to kate in ottawa. the polls are in and i suppose in canada and trudeau's popularity, despite detractors. he did not get the majority that he wanted. kate: it is unlikely at this point he will get that majority, which is the reason why he requested canadians go to the polls over the last five weeks. this campaign has been focused on his agenda for bigger social spending, especially on national childcare and more robust health
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policies. but there is something to be said about trudeau's popularity in the country, despite that his party has lost the popular vote according to the latest polls. it is interesting to see how trudeau is still divisive, but he has his lovers and haters. both sides have strong opinions and he still managed to come through. manus: thank you -- tom: thank you for joining us and that win for justin trudeau in canada. let's get the first word news. juliette: house democrats have unveil legislation to fund the government until year end and extend the definite -- debt limit through 2022. it is part of the bill needed to keep the government open through the end of the month. it is intended to pressure republicans. the u.s. will soon open air travel to most foreigners as long as they are fully vaccinated against covid-19. the new rules will replace the
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current system that currently bans non-americans arriving from places including the u.k., europe, china and india. the policies are expected to start in early november. airline executives appraised the moved. -- the move. >> 40% of our capacities and revenues in 2019 were in the u.s. based on what we saw this summer, the european borders open, we expect a return of traffic from 2019. juliette: the u.k. will not bailout companies affected by the power crisis and the government expects to see some businesses go bankrupt in the coming weeks. an official said the britain's energy price cap protects consumers and will remain in
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place. gas prices have more than tripled this year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. let's take a little bit of a look at the events that will drive the narrative for the day, 8:00 a.m., the ecb, that is u.k. time, they will speak about financial stability and has recently said inflation could be higher than anticipated. we will talk about the gas prices in europe at record highs. 10:00 a.m., the interim economic outlook. we will speak to an economist shortly after that. labor shortages and numbers, and policymakers gather today. ray dalio set to speak at 2:00 p.m. u.k. time. tom: coming up, is china un-
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investable. the global stock route continues in asia over evergrande angst. we will look at the story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> there has been a lot of discussion about whether china is un-investable. i am one who believes it isn't. the property rights are not there. it has gotten worse over the past year, as we have seen. evergrande is just the latest negative for investing in china. manus: chipping in on china. one of -- where to the major players sit on investing at the moment?
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ray dalio, kathy would, -- kathie wood. our guest joins us. let's set the stage, ever grand. there is a lot of debate whether it is an isolated, contained, not systemic, non-global impact event. containable and how do they do that? >> for us, it is a containable event. the situation with evergrande is a difficult case where the government and authorities have to choose between a dilemma which is on one side fighting a moral -- and on the other fighting contagion. if you take into account the importance of the real estate sector in china, where you have 40 million people working in the
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construction sector, where you have a huge amount of gdp, related to the construction sector, like 14%, you have one million people committed to buy an apartment from evergrande. it is not always possible for the chinese authorities to have a disaster in terms of restructuring evergrande debt. we expect an orderly restructuring of this debt. tom: should we conclude the reaction we have seen, the price reaction we have seen in terms of property stocks listed in hong kong, it also insurers and , that is an overreaction or a sensible step to take until we have further clarity? stéphane: i think it is a reasonable step. we have been avoiding these sectors at least the high-yield
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sector in chinese debt and concentrating exposure in china more on the sovereign debt or the quads i sovereign debt. what you need to expect from the authority's, are they going to protect the workers were to a certain extent, are the contractors of evergrande going to protect the people who have bought into this presale format? the people who will pay are the equity owners of evergrande, and this has been close to a disaster. also there were probably be serious restructuring of the debt and bondholders will suffer. manus: in terms of policy response, everyone -- my inbox is filled with policy
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mistakes on the way. it is the banks that are protected. is there such a thing as an orderly default on evergrande? what does it need to be to remain a non-systemic event for risk? stéphane: i think what needs to remain is to contain the defaults to the very weak players in order to teach a lesson to investors, to make sure it doesn't spread to the full sector. as i was mentioning, you can do without 14% of your economy if you are china. one has to take into account also the fact that china had a pretty rough third quarter as far as growth is concerned. there had been some policy tightening earlier in the year that had some affect on the third quarter, but you have the
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flood, you have the delta variant that reemerged, and you have all of the regulatory crackdowns. really now what you need from the chinese authority is i would say impetus for the fourth quarter. we are coming from a pretty high level of growth. china probably reached its peak in the first quarter of 2021. economies slow down a lot in the third quarter. we need the chinese economy i would say convert to its trend growth of roughly 5% and i am pretty convinced chinese authorities will do whatever is necessary from the monetary and fiscal side to achieve that and they will certainly deal with the evergrande situation in a reasonable way. tom: we converge around 5% on the back of some support by the pboc and maybe the finance ministry in beijing as well to make sure you get to that level you have outlined. what is read across to equities
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in asia and europe? stéphane: for equities, we have recently increased our location to asian equities and we are overweight asian equities. if we look at distribution on a global basis, what we have is basically a situation where our main scenario is a scenario of reasonable growth on one side and inflation that is favorable for equities. then we have two risk scenarios, we have a second scenario that is basically the risk scenario we had yesterday in the market, is a scenario in which the growth collapse and inflation is very low, not very good for equities that very good for government bonds. we attribute 40% to that scenario. last but least, there is a scenario of stag-flation, with
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low growth, and we only attribute 10% probability. manus: your base is high growth and low inflation. we will talk more about that with the fed in a moment. a number of people have joined us saying we don't want any china equity, i am sketchy on corporate credit. look at the blowout in high-yield, 14% and climbing in china. is there anything that would tempt you into high-yield or do you want be higher -- wanted to be higher in the capital structure if you allocate china? stéphane: first, we are allocating to china on the equity side and also the high-quality sovereign and quasi-sovereign for the time being. we don't think it is the right time yet to go into the higher segment in china. we are also optimistic on the
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currency. yesterday was a difficult day. the currency stayed around 647 against the u.s. dollar, which for us is a sign of strength. tom: all right, you will stay with us. coming up, the fed decision on tapering looms with a global stock rout in asia dominating sentiment ahead of wednesday's meeting. that story is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am tom mackenzie in london with manus cranny in dubai. asia dominating sentiment ahead of the fed decision on tapering. the s&p 500 pared some l
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osses, but still the biggest drop since may. let's bring back our guest. where do you stand on the debate on whether or not the selloff will be stayed? are you aligned with j.p. morgan, saying now is precisely the time to take it vantage? -- take advantage? stéphane: we think this situation will stabilize, in which you try to buy on the deep. the deep experience is probably not big, so i don't have a huge urged by more equities at this stage, but we are more positive on equity markets going forward. basically the issue is with the monetary policy. it is clear there will be a little bit of tapering happening
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in the u.s. economy in 2022, but on the other hand, one needs to keep in mind there will be a huge fiscal impotence with -- fiscal impetus with the biden, helping companies generate a lot of earnings that are positive for equities. manus: to the other side of the trade and i want to expand on what you just said because you are mentioning the fiscal stimulus for 3.5 trillion dollars, but how important is that forgetting that through because they are warning signs it is crunch time. if that fiscal stimulus does not get passed in the size we expect, that is a material risk, is it to sentiment? stéphane: of course. if the fiscal stimulus does not pass, it would be a problem for the economy, but we think the biden and its duration has the means to get the fiscal stimulus
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passed in the coming months so we are quite comfortable with the small majority, they will be able to get it through. tom: you touched on tapering and we are still looking for clarity on the timeline and we may get that later this week from the fomc and the fed. what do you think is the bigger market dynamic, the most important dynamic, the removal of some of these asset purchases or the starting gun on rate rises in 2023? stéphane: we think the timing will be -- the tapering will start at the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022, and basically the tapering will be done by 10 billion per month, so they will go over 12 months from 120 billion to zero. then we expect rate hikes will
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only happen in 2023 and we expect two rate hikes in 2023 and two in 2024 and then we will reach something like 2.5% at the beginning of 2026. this is our main scenario and i think it is along the lines of market expectations. now, if there is a risk in our mind to this scenario, it is more on the upside, and this is probably to hike more than two times in 2023 and 2024, and it is a bit too early to gauge the reaction of the market, but it could be a bit of a surprise at that point in time. right now, this is the expectation and in the market will react according to what the fed is announcing, whether this week or in november. manus: i noticed you have a moderately bullish outlook on
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the dollar. we saw it as a haven trade this week. citi wanted to belong on e.m. with the dollar is a haven trade. how do you see the market positions in dollar? stéphane: currently the dollar is very much overvalued from a valuation standpoint. the issue is that within the tapering and the fact the u.s. will be the first major central bank to have more restorative monetary policy, it will provide support to the dollar in the short term. we are reasonably comfortable with the dollar
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tom: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, it is 6:30 in london and i am tom mackenzie with manus cranny live from dubai. here is what you need to know. asian stocks declining amid ever granted debt concerns. u.s. futures are higher, is the worst of the selloff over? the fomc needs, and bill dudley says the fallout from china real
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estate will not stop the fed from signaling it is on track to taper. and shell sells its permian basin assets to conocophillips for 9.5 oh you dollars. it plans to distribute -- 9 yen dollars. it plans to distribute some of that to shareholders. we discovered risk off at the top of the show. travel sector is feeding into a more positive narrative around developments there, the implications for growth as well as cross-border travel getting back underway thanks to the u.s. relaxing some curbs. manus: this is critically important. you see the likes of i am putting up i ag up 10% yesterday at one juncture. it is about the reopening and trying to normalize again. 166 is where it finished yesterday. we have the ceo of by airports, it is one of the biggest
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airports -- of dubai airports, it is one of the biggest airports by traffic and they are looking at doubling. this is their number one traffic delivery. and as of the fourth, i could be sitting beside you because my vaccine will be technically recognized. they are feeling the flow and feeding the hub. tom: more than doubling for dubai is crucial. the centrality of that hub, and the u.s. and europe the most profitable routes. that will be about a month away, and crucially for the u.s. as well, they will recognize vaccines given the green light, not just u.s. vaccines. manus: i am getting messages from people asking if i'm going
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to come to london, but i'm always up for a trip and the boss can listen in. do you listen to j.p. morgan or morgan stanley on risk, they are almost diametrically opposed on the debt versus get ready for fire and ice? tom: wilson at morgan stanley putting a dampener on things saying it is not the central case yet, the 20% correction for the s&p 500 but it is looking like more of a realistic possibility. the flipside of j.p. morgan. manus: absolutely. they are channeling their inner ellie goulding. you have asian stocks, turning to understand what an evergrande default will look like and we are starting to think that might happen but it will be contained. s&p 500 dealing with this differential between jp morgan
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that says buy the dip, it was a technical blip yesterday, a little more than a glitch i assure you. bitcoin down by two point 56%. you noted this morning, the dollar is overvalued. citi long the dollar on e.m. to hedge. tom: another essential story, surging energy prices in europe causing chaos, turning attention to renewables. wind speeds in europe below average this year, leading to a greater reliance on natural gas. that together with a global supply crunch has pushed gas prices even higher. a record in the u.k. yesterday. as a result, coal power plants are coming back online. some of our guests have weighed in on the crisis. >> i think it is a little bit
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high for the days and weeks to come. >> what we are seeing in europe right now is wind and solar a great but if the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing, people still need electricity. >> basically you've got low gas coming into the u.k., we've got very low wind. >> most of these factors are in the short-term, how the winter conditions will be viewed -- will be. >> not only economic considerations but it will affect the ability to provide gas for heating, and in a cold winter when you have to russian gas for heating, does not just about geopolitical games or markets, it touches everybody's lives. >> if we don't start to remedy the situation, we will be -- this winter. tom: for more, our reporter joins us. how are the price pressures in
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the gas complex impacting the case for renewables and planned investment in that space? will: i actually don't think they are really affecting the investment case or the role of renewables, at least in europe. what we are hearing from brussels, what we are hearing from the u.k. business minister yesterday, this only underscores the fact that a reliance on volatile fossil fuel prices will expose you to these prices. at the same time, it is underlying -- underlining that nobles cannot be 100% of your electricity. you need things to turn on or a way to store the electricity renewables are generating during the good times. wind is the main renewable
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source in the u.k. in northern europe, and it is aggravating the gas crisis that is happening. manus: good morning. we had a huddle in a group of executives around the world weathering for gas tech, no irony lost on this. one thing that will be pushed more and more is nord stream 2 is now no longer a lecturing button absolute necessity. does this -- no longer a luxury and absolute necessity. does this squeeze more pressure along nord stream 2? will: that is a really good question. it depends on what happens this winter. if there is not enough gas, if people end up -- if we see blackouts or eat turning off, that will be -- or heat turning off, that will be a serious
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political question. a lot of times people don't think about power and gas because it just works and the price is not that noticeable, that if there are major disruptions like that, it will become a really big political issue for everyone that relies on that gas. tom: will, thank you for the latest on how those gas price pressures are playing into the renewable space. let's get the first word news with juliette saly. juliette: the canadian prime minister is poised to win a third term according to broadcasters. two networks say they are -- say the liberals are falling short of a parliamentary majority. there has been legislation revealed to extend the debt limit in the u.s. through 2022. this spending bill is needed to keep the government running
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through the end of the month. it aims to pressure republicans who pledge to vote against an increase in borrowing limits. the u.s. will soon open air travel to most foreigners as long as they are fully vaccinated against covid. the new rules will replace the current system that currently bans non-americans arriving from places including the u.k., europe, china and india. the policies are expected to start early november. airline executives have praised the move. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. coming up, voters in europe's biggest economy prepared to head to the polls. investors will weigh in on the results. what does it mean for investors? this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: breaking news, 400% increase in terms of bookings as we see an easing of restrictions. mr. lundgren talking about demand, up 400%. also, easyjet has no approach, this is breaking news, no approach from iag for the business. easyjet is looking at rivals too . they've had their capital raising of 1.2 billion pounds. we know that, but the ceo has seen broad support from shareholders for the rights issue. that is the breaking news coming
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from the ceo at easyjet. 400%, that's what you call pent up demand. tom: absolutely and wanting to questions about consolidation in the space after easyjet rebuffed an offer by wizz air. but that is central to not only changes in the u.k., but also the u.s. as well, as we are describing at some point in november and airlines are looking optimistic on the back of this. before we move on, to the question of elections in germany, to futures. have a little bit of upside in european futures, gaining 3/10 of 1%. maybe a bit on the significant -- a bit up from the significant selloff yesterday. let's go to germany and the elections. polling is favoring spd's olaf
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scholz, they also expected to be a traffic light coalition. let's get to maria tadeo. when it comes to stocks, which of the potential losers -- which are the potential losers and winners on the backs of these coalitions? maria: i am not a stockbroker, i have to say that, but there are some themes shaking -- shaping up in the run-up to the vote. no every major political party says this is a country that needs to modernize its economy, that is on the digital front and also on the green front. when you look specifically, you mentioned the traffic light coalition, when you look specifically at the manifestoes from the spd and the greens, they say the country will need additional financing of about 50 billion euros to modernize the economy.
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a few sectors could emerge as winners, that is renewables, a big component in terms of cutting down emissions and turning them into cleaner energy. the tech names in the country with the liberal democrats saying they want to cut red tape to boost a new energy that could be the future for the german economy. anything related to digitalizing the economy. the flipside, and this is perhaps where the downside could be according to analysts, is we get the red-red-green coalition, a be a bigger pool to the left than expected. there are some sectors that could get hit, autos and planes are obvious, but also real estate. we know in places like berlin, there has been a real push to cap some of the big investment names from buying houses and flipping them, renting them. there has been a huge debate about the rent cap, rent.
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manus: we just lost maria, we will return to her in a moment. the red-red-green coalition could have consequences on the equity side in terms of the spend, but the other side of the trade is the bund market, driven by the ecb, and also fiscal implications as well. everybody seems to be in new york except me. world leaders are meeting there. it is the 76th u.n. annual assembly, and climate is high on the agenda. efforts are being made to get countries to agree on older commitments ahead of november. ireland's prime minister spoke exclusively to bloomberg about the solutions to the climate crisis. >> i think the key agenda item for ireland on the energy front is wind, and we have been great
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developers of onshore wind, and next is offshore wind, and we have streamlined our application framework for investors so they have certainty in terms of applying to invest in terms of offshore wind infrastructure in ireland. that will be a key agenda item of hours, and renewables. we have a strong kindness component in our government and government program, and that is not disconnected from the energy agenda. there will be challenges with that, no doubt, but we are making considerable progress. >> are you worried about the here and now and blackout risks and the amount of consumption data? >> data is taking up a considerable demand in energy terms but we have been robust in terms of meeting that the date. i am confident we have the right mix to maintain that sort of robust response. for us, the key pillars of the next stage of economic growth is
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digitization and climate in the green economy. our investment are targeted as we emerge from covid toward the green economy and digitalization. we've got to try and marry the two in respect to the various challenges that will arise. covid has taught us many lessons and accelerated some of the push on the technology front, particularly on the delivery of health services, and also we think has given people a closer connection with nature and an appreciation of existential threats. covid created that in terms of a pandemic and virus, but i think people have a greater understanding of how near that existential threat, climate change, represents, and perhaps they may have had. >> talk to us about net zero by 2030, will ireland get there? >>, yes we set a very ambitious targets, reducing by 51% by 2030 and net zero 2050.
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that is a very strong commitment of hours across every sector. by the end of the year, we will be publishing carbon budgets for each individual sector, from transport to agriculture. we have to move fast as a country and we have to set challenging targets, but we are absolutely determined with our european union colleagues to do that. >> let's talk about digitalization. how important is your tax rate for digitization, how it helps move so many key technology companies to put a european headquarters in ireland? are you committed to the 12.5%? >> is bid -- it has been one of our tools to attract companies to ireland, but i also think the human capital has been a critical part of those success
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stories, technology and even life sciences, manufacturing and so on. we have built up a lot of strength in that area. also in terms of our migration approach, being part of the european union, we have a large talent pool of people who want to come to ireland to live and work and enjoy a good quality of life. that is very important for googles and amazons and so forth. they have transformed in ireland as well after paying -- playing an important role. we have engaged in the oecd process. we have not joined a consensus yet, and we are broadly supportive of the process but haven't signed up to the
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consensus yet because of some aspects we believe don't give certainty of continuity. some of those companies you mentioned, they require certainty for the future. tom: the arlen prime minister speaking to bloomberg -- the ireland prime minister speaking to bloomberg. coming up, a u.k. retail bank launching today. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: it is "daybreak: europe." here is the agenda for the day, the u.n. general assembly gets underway in new york. here in dubai, we've got gas tech gathering to debate the global oil and energy markets. tom: we will get updated
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forecast for major global economies from the oecd, and the greenwich form will include speakers including ray dalio and alan greenspan. switching focus to a u.k. story and banking story, jp morgan has opened a digital retail bank and the u.k. as it seeks to expand its consumer business overseas. joining us is our u.k. finance editor. why now for j.p. morgan? >> it is an interesting moment, i think the main thing is they don't have a retail presence outside the u.s., so i expect the executives are looking for that business, which is something like 50% of their revenue in the u.s.. we have a big investment bank in the u.k., one we see what we can do on the retail side? but there are a lot of questions in a notoriously competitive market. manus: we have just been
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debating goldman sachs, their retail proposition, markets, which i must say is an enviable deposit rate, does it go head-to-head in terms of grabbing market shares, because at think -- i think out one point they had to stall what they were taking in. >> that is right, in the u.k., they stop taking deposits because they came up against regulatory limit. that has been a successful goldman and a low-cost way to finance operations. jp morgan taking a different tack, they are starting out with their current account, but exactly, they are looking for consumers to leave money with them and trying to encourage that through various rewards programs. they will use that, they say, to build out an entire retail bank. different from goldman, using it to fund other operations. tom: what about some of the startups rubbing a bit of share
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in the u.k. market? >> the u.k. market is fascinating, on the one side you have the legacy banks, and then you have the fintech scene. some people i've been talking to have said did j.p. morgan know what they are getting into? on the other site, you have people saying if anyone can do it, jp morgan has the resources and know-how. if they can stick the landing, we will have a new banking presence in the u.k. manus: hsbc have their first direct products so there is vintage let's say online only as well. tom, great to have you with us. was there an irrational level of selling yesterday is one of the narratives in the market. futures bouncing back from a 3% implosion yesterday at one junction which jp morgan said it was technical, he was hedging
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going on. tom: that is it from "bloomberg daybreak: europe," the european open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> good morning and welcome to "european open." i am dani burger alongside mark singapore -- mark cudmore in singapore. here are your type headlines. the brink of default, evergrande falls further after there are signs beijing will not


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