tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg September 21, 2021 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ guy: tuesday the 21st. what do you need to know? still higher, but we are off our highs. evergrande report lee missing some payments to banks yesterday. is london actually late to the party? we will speak to the chief secretary of the treasury john flynn. -- treasury john glenn.
want to skip homebuilding for just a second. the bond market sitting at one point 30%. not a lot of movement. everything a little bit heavy. you had housing starts that did come in higher than estimates, but lennar reported revenue yesterday that talked about the supply chain issues. they can't build a house if they can't get the stuff to build a house. that overall index down by over 1%. guy, it is going to be tricky for large physicians to be taking place as we had that selloff into the fed tomorrow. guy: fueled by a range of things . shipping costs, raw materials,
all of these things could pose near-term risks to the economy, potentially long-term risks to the portfolio. this is all according to the oecd's latest interim outlook report. the oecd chief economist spoke to bloomberg a little earlier. >> what we need is indication on the conditions for the economic viable that will make those policymakers move. the last thing is fiscal policy will not last forever. we have climate to address. this will require resources. governments need to plan now on how they will adjust in the future for addressing those challenges. guy: iain stealey, j.p. morgan
chase fixed income cio, joining us now. it still feels incredibly optimistic in terms of what potentially could be priced when it comes to the inflation outlook. the oecd raising its forecast today. we heard from the ecb as well in terms of what they see. there were alluding to the fact that inflation is going to be a little stickier then we thought even a few weeks ago. iain: the u.k. approaching 4%, you could argue the breakeven markets are saying yes, that is inflation coming. but it is those really low, deeply negative real yields where the market is probably just challenging exact a what is going on, it does feel a little bit of a disconnect because i would agree that we know it is going to be transitory. we know that used car prices have picked up inflation numbers in the u.s., and they have to
come back down at some point. but when you look at things like wages, when you look at some of the high-frequency shelter data in the u.s., in it looks like it might be stickier than jerome powell and some of the fed members think. alix: how long until we know that? this is a structural shift, not necessarily just a short-term supply issue. iain: i think the most important thing they will be looking at is the wage data and how wages pickup areas we need to get over the period pub the employment protection plan, over the furlough scheme in the u.k., and then give it another couple of months, probably a little sooner for the u.s., and see what these numbers are looking at. how healthy is the jobs market? are we still seeing this big demand that is? offsetting that?
-- demand that is offsetting that? for the time being, they are probably having to stay the course and wait. guy: ray dalio was making the point that each economic cycle we go through, interest rate speak at a lower level. we've gone from volker all the way down. qe every time we have used it has gotten bigger and bigger. are we at a point where that is going to stop, i.e. the inflationary point we have just been having will cause peak rates to be higher this time around, as a result of which we will come to use qe again, and terms of where rates are going to end up?
where do you think peak rates will be? iain: the difficulty here is the debt burden. we've issued a whole load of debt area you do not want rates to be particularly high. you do get this sort of financial repression which keeps rates low. although we've had this huge acute program and we are going to step away -- this huge qe program and we are going to step away, basically that is stealing from investors. if you know what the bond market is pricing at the moment, that it's exacted with the bond market is saying. we've got these breakeven levels , yet we've got those deeply negative real yields. the bond market is saying rates need to stay low because you need to finance his debt.
it has really been exasperated by the pendant. i think you're going to get reasonable growth as you get the slightly higher inflation we had over the last decade or so. i just think central bankers are going to be prepared to allow that inflation backdrop to be a little bit higher than maybe we would have thought previously. governments seem to be less concerned about deficits and debt burdens and are happy to try to grow our way out of it. i think austerity is behind us from what we knew in the financial crisis. we will have the support of government, the support of central banks, and it is going to be a combination of low yields with growth that is going to get us out of this. guy: what is priced?
iain: in the last couple of weeks, some of the selloff in bond yields has been led by europe, what is going on in germany and the u.k.. possibly once we actually get the final formation of it, maybe there is a little bit more weakness left in the german market, but i thing a lot of it has already been priced. guy: is there an implication from the gas crisis we are seeing? iain: i think it is not going to be as dramatic. this is the wrong type of inflation, bear in mind. this is a tax on the consumer it could well be a drag on growth. i think central bankers will want to look through that. they are not going to be raising rates in anticipation of energy
prices. they wanted based on things like wages. that is what they really want to see. alix: the u.k. issued some green bonds, insanely oversubscribed. what you make of how this market develops? you will pay a premium. what do you think? iain: there's been a huge demand for all sorts of green bonds this year. they have still done very well, there has been huge demand for them. we have record demand for the green bonds today. we are going to see another green bond from the u.k. later this year in the thirty-year part of the curve. i wouldn't be surprised if there is record demand for that as well, probably allowing them to be more than 15 billion they set out to do earlier this year. guy: great to see when the studio. fantastic to have you back. we are going to be speaking about that green bond story with john glen, the chief secretary
$9.5 billion, making it one of the largest permian produces right now in the u.s. this comes a few months after conoco bought concho. now you have to add as much as 200,000 barrels of oil a day in 2022, which is what conoco thinks it can do with shall's -- with shell's assets. joining us now is ryan lance, conocophillips ceo. congratulations on the deal. it was reported that shell wanted to offload these assets because it was so expensive why now at this price? -- so expensive. why now at this price?
ryan: i got a call about midyear saying we would be interested in looking at them. with the position we have developed, certainly we wanted to take a look at it. ultimately, it had the three things for our company. could we see clearly that we could add value to it, we can after the concho transaction and bringing our teams together. we see ways for significant value in the transaction. thirdly, it's got to make our company better. that is what we outlined today in our press release. when you look at our 10 year plan, just about everything we look at in our plan makes us a better company. so we were clearly very
interested when it came to the market, and we are really pleased to be able to transact with shell. alix: i appreciate that oil prices are up, but some are saying it is to have a price. maybe you paid a little bit too much. how did you come to the right valuation? ryan: to fit our framework, the supply needs to be below 50 dollars a barrel wti. so we didn't evaluate it at today's prices. we looked at it to make sure it fits our cost of supply framework, and we felt like we paid a fair value for the assets based on that cost of supply framework, which is all in below $50 wti. so it is really agnostic to what
the price is doing today. it represents our long-term view of prices. we need to make sure it fits our framework about how we allocate capital at the highest level, and it does at this kind of its. alix: the rest of the industry was out spending cash flow. when you cut your payouts, you did it before the industry. the fact that you have to raise your cap, what is that telling me -- your capex, what is that telling me about the next couple of years? ryan: the constraint that the opec+ group has put into the system, the recovering demand we see coming out of the covid
pandemic, we see demand improving probably back to pre-pandemic levels into the fourth quarter of next year and the markets getting relatively balanced. there's been discipline, as you point out, which is what we have been following for the last four or five years. we still see that discipline, so we are constructive on the price going forward, but an hour kind of come of the world is going through an energy transition. there's going to be increased demand for the product as we go forward. we want to be in the lowest cost for supply basins around the world, and that is what the permian basin present we have a strategy to be really driving the company and its portfolio to the lowest cost of supply so we can continue to meet the demand in a transitioning world. that is going to be really important. we have what we call a triple
mandate. we think we have to meet that demand and a transitioning world reliably and affordably. second, we have to make sure we are getting adequate turns of and on that capital we are spending so investors will spend in this business. we have to do it sustainably. we have to take care of our scope one and scope to emissions we create as a business to make sure we are doing that over the paris aligned climate risk strategy. we were the first company to come out with a climate strategy aligned to paris. so we will reduce our emissions, and in the announcement we made last night, we are increasing our target with emissions reductions associate with a combination of these assets. guy: i'm sure that are saying we would rather have this supply come back to us. we rather we have that money in our pockets rather than you
going out and spending it. what you say to those investors? ryan: this underpins our financial commitment to the market. it delivers free cash flow, earnings, so we are taking that money and investing it over the course of the next 10 years. we have already showed how it is accretive to our 10 year plan. it delivers that and more back to the shareholders over that 10 years, and that is a $50 -- at $50 wti prices. the shareholder gets a return and then some, so this is what we do. this is what we are really good at as a company. i think investors should want us to be making these high-value, accretive kind of opportunities because it makes our plan better over the next 10 years. it makes us a much stronger company, doing what we do really well. guy: some people may have thought these guys are focusing
on alaska rather than the permian. is this a zero-sum game? ryan: no, we strongly believe in a global diversified portfolio. it is one of the strengths of our company and one of the differentiating aperture be -- differentiating attributes of our company. so we have large legacy positions in places like canada, the far east, qatar. those add to decayed ability of the company. they lower the decline rate of the company. they stabilize the company with less capital-intensive kind of business and lower the decline rate, so we strongly believe we are maintaining that global diversity, but we have got to make sure it is low cost of supply wherever we are at. the things we are doing, whether it is permian or other positions around the world, that is the
great thing about our cost of supply framework. it makes sure we are doing the best things to get the best returns on the capital we are spending. alix: what is your level of confidence you will get to do the things you want to do in alaska? ryan: we know there are differences of opinion which would -- differences of opinion, but we do it right in alaska. it is really important that all of our stakeholders are supportive and behind what we are doing there. a federal judge asked a few questions. there are solutions to those that we are working through, and we expect to work through those in a way that will satisfy the questions the judge has and make it an even more robust permitting process on the
projects we are developing there. i remind people that we have a project coming on at the end of this year in alaska. we have reinstituted a number of rigs drilling there, and we are still operating and still investing capital there that is very competitive in the portfolio. alix: you have set a 15% growth rate for the shell assets in less than a year. you also up to the missions intensity reduction targets. what are you going to do that is so different from what shell did? ryan: we have created a very efficient machine in the permian and across all of our lower 48 operations. we are proud of what they are doing.
we already see some ways that we can improve upon what shell was doing. we are able to bring some of those learnings of what we are doing in the permian together to make the assets much better. that is an important driver of this acquisition. we know how anna with our commercial acumen and some of the technology we are deploying, how to make the assets even better. that is what is exciting to us. guy: final question from me. the qatar northfield, does this deal have any impact on your aspirations there? ryan: i think we are well placed there. so no, no impact at all.
it goes to the global diversification of the company. we invented some of the lng processes 50 years ago. in alaska we have our own proprietary technology. we know the business really well, we know the customers really well, and we are pretty bullish on lng markets over the next 20 and 30 years. so it makes every amount of sense for us to be in the middle of that. but weber route to, it has to fit our framework. if it fits our framework, we are happy to move forward aggressively. alix: thank you for being so generous with your time. let's get some more input on the european side. christyan malek, j.p. morgan securities, joins us now. a lot of money from this is going to go towards buybacks. is this a good news for she
ll? christyan: it is almost a contrast of pert hires citing -- of prioritizing cash and cash returns. they are able to fund more returns because it got when he percent of the cash flow in cash return. this additional $7 billion they are going to use will sort through the sale on top of that buyback. it tells you that the company priorities are really now firmly in winning back the shareholders after having cut the dividend. guy: in terms of who got the better end of the stick here, what is your perspective? christyan: this is probably one
of those deals where everybody wins. they are looking for where they can add value in deepwater, and the shell permian position, for them to invest more it would have to be in. the interesting takeaway is that both of them remain disciplined on capex. in shell's case, they are actually in deepwater where they will shift those assets. alix: so what is next on their chopping block or their list of development? christyan: it sort of put the
spot on non-core positions. it is likely that within the sort of acreage that they have from an esd perspective may not sit as well, nigeria is something they have talked about. some of these conventional oil fields. i think what you will see them do is migrate around where it works from a carbon intensive perspective. it is interesting that this morning, there's very little from investors on what it means for scope when emissions. i think it is quite high up on shell's agenda. guy: our other courts going to make similar demands of oil companies going forward?
how should we sing about the shuffling of assets that is likely to place? christyan: obviously, conoco is going to do a lot of works in terms of reducing the carbon intensity further. i think one of the areas that the pushback is we have seen is this rotation away from oil and gas just when oil and gas prices are firming up. in fact, we have worked on something recently? ? which comes back to knowing your customer. what do investors actually want -- something recently which comes back to knowing your customer. what do investors actually want echo but they also need is to
critical -- what do investors actually want? guy: thank you indeed. greatly shale a huge feature of the landscape in europe. wrapping up the session. europe still looks verily buoyant compared to what we are seeing in the united states. yesterday a big down day on reasonable volume. we bounce back a little bit. more of a turnaround tuesday on this side of the atlantic. the cac 40 up 1.3%. the dax up 1.2%. shale a feature of landscape. it is the travel and leisure
sector leading in terms of the gains we are seeing. obviously gains being delivered. a much brighter picture on the european side of the atlantic. let's take a look at how the session has developed. a gap higher yesterday -- a gap higher. yesterday was a cap lower. not much volatility midsession. certainly not when the u.s. rolled over a little bit. it has quickly stabilized. in aggregate stoxx 600 is up .9%. let's break it down from a sector point of view to give you an idea of what is happening. i mentioned what is happening with the travel and leisure sector. real estate is picking up, technology, energy. shell up 1.42%. the luxury sector, which had
been so concerned about the chinese story, also bouncing back. the basic resources, media is down, retail will be back. let's talk about individual names. royal dutch shell up 3.35% on the back of the conoco deal. huge returns. surprisingly large returns to shareholders. they will get three quarters of the $9.5 billion coming back. in some ways you can argue -- vivendi, we have seen this been out of universal media group. its stock trading up 4.3%. the umt float seems to have gone better. that has been priced back in. then there is the story that finishes the day. you have this deal which looks like has been made. entain is saying take no action. it is a stock and shale deal.
up 8.4%. the juncker not that is u.s. sports betting -- the juggernaut that is u.s. sports betting seems to be getting stronger. we are seeing the stronger part hoovering up assets. entain up 8.4%. -- up 18 .4%. alix: are member years ago i had to get the segment on tv and i to wait until the end of august and out is front and center. today the u.k. raised about 10 billion pounds for a green debt maturing in 2033. that is record for greenbaum sales. what is interesting is it tracked 100 billion pounds. that is an insane subscriber rate. we look at where the green bond issuance has,. this is where we probably will get to in 2021.
looking at $391 billion of deals. that will grow in 2022 and 2023. there are questions of how much are you willing to pay, that is the premium over what you pay for normal issuance. what are the qualifications? how do you know if it is really green? how does the market develop internal workings? guy: absolutely. there are going to be investments in blue hydrogen. john glen u.k. economic secretary of the treasury joining us to discuss. this is a huge amount of demand. we are wondering what does this mean in terms of your expectations for issuing green bonds going forward, i am assuming this encourages you. what does this mean for the british taxpayer? >> it is excellent news. this is the largest sovereign
bond issuance ever and demand has been significantly above many people's expectations. there is a premium for the way this has worked. we will be issuing further bonds and we will set out details that at the budget next month. it demonstrates the appetite for authority of well understood mechanism to fund some of the interventions getting us to our net zero goals. alix: are you considering other sustainable debt formats like a sustainability linked bond and can you walk me through the thought process? sec. glen: what is clear is people need to have confidence in where the money will be invested in need to understand what disclosures go with it and whether there are guarantees of
where the money is being used. we are working hard across different jurisdictions to ensure we have these disclosure environments that give people confidence in the markets. that is something we are working on as we move forward. guy: some argue the u.k. is not as green as others and it is behind the curve in terms of its timing. what you say to those people? is blue hydrogen a worthy investment? is carbon capture going to deliver the kind of benefit we need for the environment given the scale of the investment it is going to be needed? are these investments green enough to justify the green label? sec. glen: clearly we have been the first sovereign to issue. what we have done is make sure when we have done so we will clear about what it would be
invested in. i realize there discussions about the sustainability of many of the technologies. what we have is a consensus on what this means at the moment. we will be making clear disclosures where people will be able to know where it is going. what i cannot do is predict the full extent of technological development with respect to dealing with alternative energy supply. what we will do his work with the markets to ensure when we do further issuances, there will be clarity and confidence in what we should have to be deployed. alix: -- guy: can we talk about the budget you just mentioned. i will slightly switch subjects. the chancellor has said there is a review ongoing into the bank surcharge.
we are now wondering whether or not that will be something we can expect the result to be announced during the budget. for instance, can we expect within the budget to see some sort of offsetting of the increase in cooperation tax we will see when it comes to the bank surcharge? are we going to get some news in the budget? sec. glen: i should advise the chancellor's to decide. what i've always been clear and the chancellor is clear is we need to look at the application of technology to financial services. above all we need to look at competitiveness. given the changes to the corporation tax rate, we need certainty to financial services institutions. i'm working closely to see we can bring that clarity as soon as possible. we have to wait and see a few
more weeks. alix: we have seen a lot of bankers pack up and move to paris, for example. sec. glen: not that many. alix: a few. what i mean to say is it is a very competitive landscape. you have a cap on bankers. i wonder if that is a role you would consider scrapping to keep some of the talent homegrown? sec. glen: we have seen modest movement to other locations in continental europe. when you look at that competitiveness, we look at what is the framework for us to attract more investment into london, that covers a range of areas. that is why we have the wholesale market review, we are looking at how listings can be done on london markets. the best year for seven years. there are number of things we can look at. we do that as a framework of
high standards. we are not deregulating for the sake of it. that is an important message that london means high standards and an open and competitive environment that allow this to prosper and grow their global footprint. guy: how much will it cost the u.k. treasury to keep the lights on in the u.k. this winter? what effect you think high gas prices will have on economic output? this will be the drag not just to the consumer but industry. sec. glen: my colleagues will be having meetings today with energy companies looking at some of the options. the secretary of state has given reassurance to parliament. these are complex matters but we will be looking to do what is necessary to give the market reassurances and give consumers real surges as we look forward -- give consumers real surges --
reassert -- reassurances as we move into the coming weeks. guy: john glen, u.k. economic sec. of the treasury, thank you for your time. that wraps up the session in europe for equities. a little but of movement earning the auction process. a stable session during an interesting gap higher. interesting service stories, shell stands out with the conocophillips deal and the huge amount of money going back to shareholders. entain is another one we are watching and the bid from draftkings. the company is advising no action but the stock rising significantly. the cac 40 bouncing back. a little bit more stability on the side of the atlantic. we will watch to see how the u.s. closes a little bit later. this is bloomberg. ♪
ritika: you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. coming up, anna ashton, u.s. china business council president. 12:30 in new york, 5:30 in london. this is bloomberg. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. prime minister boris johnson says president biden has two many -- has too many mystic priorities to negotiate a deal with the u.k.. johnson says he would rather have a good deal than a quick one. house democrats are taking a risky move that ensures a potentially damaging showdown with republicans. they will include a suspension of the debt ceiling in a spending bill to keep the government open past the end of the month. republicans have said they will not vote to raise the debt limit. is to be leading to a government shutdown.
new data suggests a booster dose of johnson & johnson increases the potency of the one time shot. the boost is 100% effective when given two months after the first inoculation. a second study found the initial johnson & johnson shot could help in the increase of antibodies given six months after the third one. france is still outraged over australia's cancellation of a french subgrade contract in favor of a defense deal with the u.s. and the u.k.. the eu is now talking about a possible delay of upcoming trade talks with u.s.. the affairs minister says it is all a matter of trust. >> i would not say it has broken down. it is a difficult situation. we have to be firm. as french and europeans come it is a matter of the way we work together, in particular between the u.s. and the eu. i'm very happy the president of the european commissions in the
high steel authorities have been clear to say to our u.s. friends this is a european issue. ritika: france has also said the dispute has put brexit negotiations over northern ireland at risk. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: thank you very much. guy: thank you much. alix: jinx. guy: does that mean i do not get to talk anymore? alix: it is alix/guy. guy: is a mind meld. that french story is interesting. it will be interesting how the rest of the eu reacts. it'll be quiet from other capitals. germans in the midst of an
election will not step into this one. i think it will make brexit talks more difficult. relations with australia will be trickier. interesting to see how the relationship works out. i am almost certain the drop in travel requirements early on this week was a direct reaction to that. once you started to dig into that announcement the details were sketchy. they have not figured anything out in terms of the granularity. there has to be something, we will figure out the details later. alix: two feelings. at some point are they complaining too much? this is business, right? the other part is i feel like when president biden was talking to the united nations he says we can disagree on some stuff but let's agree on a lot of things. you can make the case talking to china they can agree on things like covid and climate, but i cannot help but wonder how much of that was talking to france. i get it, we are upset about the
submarine thing, but let's get it together on stuff that really matters. guy: it also highlights a bigger issue for the european union. that is the lack of have to when it comes to military -- that is the lack of heft when it comes to military capability. france is the only nation with significant heft. it has made significant commitments to spending. it has commitments in various parts of the world, but more notably in africa. it is looking around thinking who else will be stepping up? emmanuel macron would like to see the e.u. having a much more significant military presence but germany not so much. you wonder post this election whether that will change. alix: and what the domestic priorities are as well, particular how covid ends up developing. the other main event we have not talked about last few hours is the federal reserve kicks off their meeting today.
they will be giving the announcement tomorrow. you brought that this up yesterday that i wonder how the selloff we saw and the rollover we are seeing today impacts how a message is delivered. not maybe the actual message but how a by jay powell is delivered. guy: not a very big move thus far if you look at it from the financial markets. we wonder whether it changes the narrative. central banks have been hypersensitive to this kind of risk. we will talk about it more michael mckee will set us up. this is bloomberg. ♪
tuesday or turnaround tuesday. yesterday's big selloff did put the s&p 500 back above its 100 day moving average. you see greater strength for some of the big tech names. the russell 2000 still a bit above its 200 day average. will be watching all of these indexes. let's going to the bloomberg terminal and check in on the s&p 500 and its moving averages. the thing to note is the beatable uptrend. you can see the consolidation down, but the 100 day moving average at the end of the day telling you those intermediate buyers like stocks and are buying the dip. let's see whether that holds. alix: maybe it will be turnaround. guy wants tepid, i want turnaround. maybe that will be a thing. the fed meeting caps off today.
michael mckee joins us. what are the keywords we are looking at? michael: today we will look at what jay powell's job will be. we can talk about the statement tomorrow although that will be far less important than what jay powell has to say when he has his news conference. the first thing he has to do is talk to the public and wall street about growth and inflation, because inflation is too high. we look at the atlanta fed growth forecast and it is too low. what is going on in the u.s. economy is there is stagflation, probably not. it is something people are starting to worry about. inflation is a concern. the second problem, talk about the conflict of interest concerns that have developed after fed officials were reported trading a lot in the financial markets during the past year. there is nothing untoward but it does not look good. third, what is he going to say
about overall tapering? does he talk about tapering and hint at it? you can see the t on the left-hand side is when ben bernanke talked about tapering, or does he hit it is going to happen and everything goes smooth and like the last time, that rectangle. guy: we have not talked about it much but it will be the main event tomorrow. michael mckee, thank you very much for the set up. that is a good set up for the next way for hours. what else are we watching? clearly we will be paying attention to what president biden is doing. a series of meetings taking place. he has one right now with the fellow from australia, scott morrison. we'll be seeing a meeting later with boris johnson, the british prime minister. they're going to d.c. for that meeting. we have fedex earnings tomorrow. pay attention to that.
the whole transport story is really important. alix: speaking of earnings, i'm excited about general mills because kroger had a lot of insight on how high inflation that will be looking at, how they're passing it on. general mills dealing with all of the input cost. alix: then we have the fed and the boj rate decision. 13 official banks this week. six major ones. two tomorrow. that wraps it up for me and h guy. libby cantrill will be joining balance of power with david westin. we are going to radio. guy: we are going to the cable and will be discussing what is happening in the u.k. turnaround tuesday and the green gilt deal. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
is what we've done to the value of the dollar. >> to the world of business -- >> climates has been on the mind of so many people. >> this is "balance of power" with david westin. ♪ david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." a short time ago president biden made his first appearance as president before the united nations general assembly in new york and address to the question of afghanistan. president biden: we have ended 20 years of conflict in afghanistan. as we close this period of relentless war we are opening a new era of relentless diplomacy. david: to take us through the president's remarks, we welcome our washington correspondent annmarie hordern who is with us in new york. tells abou