tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 22, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT
>> this market has been way stretched, and way overdue for a pullback of any kind. >> this could be choppy but 100 days from now we will be in a better position. >> the question is how much you want to be aggressive? >> this will persist for a while and the flood will have to normalize. >> the fed has given us a good indication of where it has been and where it's going. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning.
it is a fed day on radio and radio. kailey leinz is in for lisa abramowicz. we said good morning to all. this is about what will be set at the press conference, or will it be about what will be left? jonathan: we won't hear anything on china, i think it's too early to drop illusions. we won't hear much on the history of the future. we will hear questions on what has been happening with the federal reserve and fed precedents -- presidents, and investment decisions. as you pointed out, it will be difficult for this chairman to say anything substantial today before we get through the process of working out what's gone wrong. tom: not only in policy investment, but on our fiscal policy. what is so different from the last fed meeting is that we have
dovetailed into a president with plunging poll ratings and a president with a true fiscal mess on his hand. jonathan: do we get 2.5 trillion? tom: we have to be below that. jonathan: it's hard to come up with a forecast, the range of outcomes is wide. what does that mean for policy? they could say we are outcome based. we could pay you the range of outcomes in the way we respond to them. that sounds great. that's what people will be focused on. is the dot plot today undermining the communication effort of chairman powell? tom: we will go to jim on this, kailey leinz, it's important that the fiscal impulse what does that do to gdp? kailey: there is a potential task -- tax hike.
my question is, how much of the positive growth in the positive growth impotence from that infrastructure spending could be offset by higher taxes? tom: do you see a partition of this, as a full yank? jonathan: is that what we are calling me for the rest of the morning? don't ask me. i have no idea. for most people, when it comes to the debt ceiling, it will get dealt with, the same way that china will deal with ever grand. these things will get addressed. tom: i am dealing with one data point, the vix is what i'm following, the litmus paper of this correlated system, 22.81 on the vix. it's elevated, but nothing like where we have been. jonathan: it is a bounce, we are up 24 on the s&p. how many bounces have we seen
and then they go as the session grows older? let me quickly get this up on the bloomberg terminal so you know where the treasury has been, or where it has not been. we are at 173 point 62 now. if i throw this down to friday the 27th, when we heard from chairman powell, we close then. we have barely moved over the last month. tom: we have this on to the residual, the real yield, negative 97%, that might be a little different. i'm not sure that will come up today. driving forward with jim bianco, we are talking about this movement this hour, the social construct of this fed. i suggested it in chicago,
describe the new socially conscious federal reserve. jim: this is the untraditional monetary policy, social justice, climate change, they are trying to incorporate a lot of those things into its policymaking apparatus. the problem is that you have chairman powell coming up for renomination. you have people like liz warren who are holding back potential endorsement because he's not moving far enough. yesterday you had pat toomey from 10 sylvania say he will withhold -- from pennsylvania saying he will withhold because they are not moving fast enough. so powell is caught in the middle about whether they should be focused on something other than traditional things like employment and inflation.
financial regulation is not new, with pat toomey worried about things that should and should not be focused on, what does the fed look like with chairman powell's first term ending on the vice chair's term ending as well. what does it look like? jim: if you have conventional wisdom you will probably have chairman powell next year. probably will not have the vice-chairman, probably in one. and you might have a lot of different faces on the federal reserve. there's only one democrat appointed person on the board of governors. the rest were all appointed by republicans. i think you will have a very different federal reserve in just 12 months. how will that manifest itself in monetary policy? the traditional policy about tapering and raising rates, maybe not a lot. but when it comes to banking regulation and the idea about
climate change, there could be wholesale changes at the head -- the fed. kailey: there's a question of what the competition of the fic looks like. if they have any consensus on what we should do with monetary policy. how does chairman powell locked outline? jim: he's had a difficult time walking that line. there is no consensus. look at the june dot plot, five members in 2023 said they would not raise rates. five said they would at least four times, if not five. that's why -- they don't agree. that's why when he cleanse what's going on, you might be doing a good job explaining the room because there's no consensus. i think they will take the lead from chairman powell, but within that lead, if the data weakens like we saw with the payroll report or the inflation numbers heat up, you will have a big
faction that will push for a change in that policy. they are going to have a policy but it will have little confidence because the data could twist them left or right. tom: what does the beyond co-equity need or look like? is it optimistic? is it for the powerful chicago white sox? jim: the white sox are powerful, they are going to the playoffs. for the equity market, what has been driving it has been flows. tremendous flows have been coming into the market, every day there is buying. as long as the public consistently believes in the market and puts money into it, i think it will move higher. as of now, on 3% correction, you get one of those every five months or so, it doesn't look like it's anything more than that. it could turn into that but it hasn't.
after a shakeout, it could go higher. jonathan: what is the 32nd take on what's happening with ever grand and what it means for the broader market? jim: it's a bigger issue then will they default. it's going to be a lehman moment. china has a lehman moment every three years. it's not new. but the economy in china is slowing. they are having a real problem with economic growth. that's why a levered real estate firm like ever grand is struggling. so they kind of sort of maybe got past the bond payments last night. they got some others to work out before the olympics. they will work it out and they won't have a mess before the olympics. but they will have a struggling economy. that will impact world growth. jonathan: kind of sort of does not give me confidence.
i have been using kind of all morning. what do we say about this situation? tom: we talked about a lot of different situations, and of course we talked about bridgewater performance, they echoed dalio, talking about china's ripples. this is something we have seen, the marginal growth of the china engine is tangible. we are looking at a 5% slowdown in global growth. the ripples are many. it's not as clear-cut as boats out of shanghai. jonathan: we see germany in particular and when we have this shakeout on monday, the dax was hit hardest, down by 2%. it got beaten around. tom: it's a global system. i'm going to go to that and the tensions with submarines and where china ramifications go up the pacific rim to japan. i would not leave the japanese out of the discussion.
kailey: we do have to consider that china represents 18% of global gdp. wednesday -- when china sees this, the rest of the world get sick. there -- there is -- that china will restructure, they also expect policy to ease in october to contain the ripple effects. you could have the regulatory crowd in the property sector, but policy could come into offset that. >> bad news, good news. tom: that does describe surveillance on a three by five card. jonathan: up 24 on the s&p, 56 of 1% on the bed decision day. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> london work culture and punishing work load is causing mental health to deteriorate. so far, they have not been working with the five euro veteran of the swiss bank, seeking 200 $73,000 in --. he said it was caused by stress in the london office. volkswagen struck division has become the latest -- volkswagen's truck division has become the latest in jeopardizing deliveries. [indiscernible] will be significantly lower than planned. this is downbeat with quarterly earnings seasons. netflix is buying the roll doll story company. -- roald dahl story company.
including developing a series based on charlie and the chocolate factory. this is subject to regulatory approval. the u.s. house of representatives has approved a bill that will let angst do business with cannabis companies without fear of penalties. the safe banking act would be approved for marijuana companies which have had trouble with obtaining cash because of federal restrictions. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
rising. tom: -- jonathan: it was fantastic to catch up with him. you can catch that interview online. great work yesterday at the greenwich economic forum. tom: and you dove into that as well. i thought ned lamont was very transient. jonathan: think he's got some issues? i think he has a few. tom: the cheapest house around the harbor is like 22 million. jonathan: like a two bedroom? tom: it's a four bedroom but no docks. our guest is joining us, this is one of the right advantages we have, we can lean on experts like damian. these guys are knee-deep in the stuff we blather on each and every day. we will now have a clinic with him.
what is the difference between a you on bond and dollar -- yuan bond in dollar bond. >> the biggest difference is one is in china and one is a u.s. dollar. just overnight, we saw the fact that they did and off exchange settlement of 37 million. that was on the yuan bond. there's a lack of transparency surrounding what the exchange settlement was, maybe it was deferral of interest. but the real focus is on the market. we have $84 million on the dollar bond coming due. the difference in my mind between the bonds is that chinese corporate scum of course the property sector and ever grand, it was easier for them to go offshore and raise money in dollars. i think beijing pounced on that.
tom: what is the current see relationships -- the currency relationships. they say wait it's fungible. >> it is fungible in many sense of the word, given that we have seen, the one would not be trading, -- the yuan would be trading hired and that. jonathan: we have important questions on how you price the dollar debt of a chinese company going forward. how do you understand it at the moment? damian: in ever grand i think there's $19 billion of dollar debt and a fraction of that is yuan denominated debt. we see this in terms of where the bonds are trading with ever grand, $.25 on the dollar with the dollar denominated a bit higher for the yuan bond. what's interesting is that we
have bottom fishing on the dollar bonds. maybe even at $.25 on the dollar, the fact that beijing may step in, maybe your recovery will be $.35 on the dollar or higher after the dust settles. people are not seeing value. jonathan: what is the policy response looking like? you said china needs to cut rates. if they don't, bad things happen. walk me through it. damian: let's start with today, they injected quite a bit of money into the system. basically as much as i have seen since january when things were getting harry. last year during the peak of the pandemic we are far from that. we are a step in the right direction. if you look at every metric coming out of china, retail sales last week, why did they print 2.5% market? it's giving them an excuse to cut rates. if you look at total social
finance, these are all reasons for the pboc to cut the rrr rate and i expect that to happen. kailey: you have weakening data coming out of china. you have this concern developing in the property sector and a crackdown on many other industry groups. how does all this track with the pursuit of common prosperity? damian: there you have it. common prosperity is controlled capitalism for what china is attempting to do is distribute wealth more evenly across the classes and it might be successful with this, but not without its pain for shareholders and creditors. that's where the rubber meets the road. i'm not gonna get into the politics of all that, but for me, beijing is focused on writing some of the wrongs of prior administrations. this is a step in that direction. the pain in the bloodletting on the back of this could be
severe. i believe the pboc has to come in and inject stimulus, a rrr cut might go a long way but it will take more than that. let's be clear, our colleagues at j.p. morgan pointed out that the property sector is a huge generator of tax revenue for beijing and provincial governments. so letting this slide, they would be shooting themselves in the foot in many cases. kailey: about 41% of assets is in the property sector. let's talk about beyond china. where is the most direct effect in emerging markets? damian: i'm getting blue in the face. we can look at this as a proxy for risk, it blew out in china, the philippines and malaysia are most correlated to china from an economic perspective. you saw their prices blue out also in brazil and south africa.
what's interesting is as you point out, the bank of china spread still remains close to the wide spirit they have not come back. -- wide. they have not come back. tom: what is the linkage between you on bonds and -- yuan bonds and -- damian: we laugh because vietnam is not an investable account to me point. but asia is. and there is contagion to that region. and with the commodity groups, that's where -- tom: are you going weaker philippine peso? i'm asking for a friend. damian: i would be looking out weakness in south africa. that economy has a lot more pressure. and result. -- and brazil.
i think that's where the pain will be acutely felt. tom: we have a meter in the control room, to mechanical meter. it's a jargon meter. jonathan: there is a joke in there but i'm not gonna touch it. damian: i'm going to ruin my glasses. jonathan: thank you. tom: i remember being 16 or 17 and i cannot see the pop at the end of the ice rink. jonathan: minor hopeless now without glasses. i'm with you. -- mine are hopeless now without glasses. let's take a look at price action. up 24%, the dow futures are up 200. what does that sound like? tom: to the moon.
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jonathan: it is fed decision day. what a picture of downtown manhattan. good morning come alongside tom keene and kailey leinz, lisa will be back with us tomorrow. futures are out, the bond market is shaping up, the 10 year yield at 132 point 77. unchanged. -- 132.77. unchanged. flat in the bond market, not so much in the crude market, up by little more than 1% area a decision is coming at 2:00 eastern time. a news conference 30 minutes after that. tom: we are stopping the show on economics finance investment in international relations and speak to an end dority -- to an
authority linking economics and assets. you cannot do better than glenn hubbard, he's the dean emeritus at columbia business school. he wants to talk. we want to talk about -- as you resurrected columbia business school, you said we need to teach ethics. explain executive ethics and the idea that senior officials in the fed can do investment in bond derivative products. glenn: the first part could be easier than the second. we do believe that people need to understand the context of their decisions. part of it is ethics and part of it is understanding social structure. the fed desta have to take -- the fed does have to take a hard look at its rules, as does
congress and the administration area it's a matter of ongoing discussion. chair powell sent a strong signal. tom: what's the best outcome? i'm not talking about senators and politicians, with fed officials and --, what seems germane to me is that they could buy apples, stock markets or even commodities. but the trading of anything having to do with a fixed income market, does that strike you as odd? glenn: it does, the safer route would be the bond market and make sure there's no trading of individual stocks for speculation in the fixed income market. part of being an official is an abundance of caution so people do not challenge her motives. jonathan: does this hurt the fed ability of -- the credibility of the fed? glenn: i think it's unfortunate but i don't think it hurts the credibility.
the issues of credibility has to do more with its stance on policy. jonathan: i want to talk about social policy, this is the quote from pat toomey. he says tolerating the politicalization, the fed wandering into the social and cultural areas where the fed does not belong. could i have your reaction to that? glenn: it's hard to know what senator toomey is referring to. the fed has to think about the broader social construct of the economy. the same as any organization. you want to be clear that you don't have mission creep. job one is maximum employment. and financial stability. some of the social concerns are tied up in that, like climate change for example. the fed has to be careful to focus on its key jobs and do the work. kailey: 10 chairman powell continue to do his job? do you think he deserves a second term?
glenn: that is of course for the president. i think he does. the vet has a good record during the pandemic period. certainly not with everything, certainly a good record. chair powell has the ability to talk credibly to people on both sides of the aisle. i think it would be a mistake not to reappoint him. kailey: let's talk about the press conference, do you think the fed can separate a tapering of bond purchases versus starting to hike interest rates in the future? glenn: great question. chair powell tried to do that. it's obvious we have to have some sort of signal. there's no reason for the central bank to be providing large asset purchases to bolster aggregate demand when inflation is high and supplies a problem. and a lot of people realize that
the dot plots are shifting the possibility of a rate increase into 2022. i would expect chair powell to have that discussion. but it will come up, it should. tom: my book in the year is in defense of public debt. i said quickly, this is the tour de force on public debt. you are the single greatest spokesman of responsible, non-supply-side theory, but a more conservative theory. he opens his book with a senator from kentucky, the jr. senator, giving a traditional public debt fear line. speaking to conservatives in america, what do they get wrong about our ability to solve this public debt crisis? glenn: it's a great question. debt for a household, business, country, good or bad depends on what you are using it for. use of debt for the future, fighting the war,
infrastructure, part of the ongoing budget make sense. the problem is when debt becomes wrapped up into large social programs. death not just an american problem, it's a global problem. the issue is not necessarily how high debt is to gdp, but what we are doing for it. and that has to be -- tom: the ancient conservative issue is that the senator from vermont comes out with 3.5 trillion dollars of social programs. whether it's right or wrong doesn't matter, will not be applied correctly. do you see where we could have a two-part fiscal expansion now? where we can have confidence it will be applied productively? glenn: i do and that's different than what we are talking about, part one is on the table. that's the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
it is a good bill. the second part would be more opportunity focused, helping to connect and reconnect everybody to the economy. you could do that much more cheaply than the non-means tested expansion of social programs than senator sanders and others have suggested. kailey: is the price tag too high? glenn: yes. i don't think that's the question. if it's a massive expansion of the state and entitlement programs, that is something we ought to ask, are we promoting work and opportunity? or are we doing something else? the price tag is too high, there's no credible pay for with the bill of that side. kailey: they are higher taxes in many shapes and forms. what you think the growth impact of that is if this pay for his do you mean that americans,
granted, wealthy ones, have to pay more? glenn: obviously the economy will survive a modest increase in the corporate tax. i don't think it's a good idea but it will survive three but the small increases in capital taxes that might have a chance of being enacted are too small to pay for anything like this bill. and assumptions like drug prices are remaking a system, not really a paid for. the numbers don't add up. tom: what does chairman powell not want to say today? what is something he needs to be silent on? glenn: i guess from his perspective he would rather pond on the discussion of past four rates as opposed to tapering. he would like to avoid talking about the other taper happening, the change in the rate of growth of fiscal stimulus. that will be affecting the economy as well.
i doubt that he wants to way into that. jonathan: thank you. fantastic to clap up to -- fantastic to catch up with you. as we county down to the fed decision, just hours away, 2:00 eastern time, a news conference 30 minutes after that. the s&p 500 is bouncing back, advancing's extensive 1%. the yields are not doing much and they haven't for the last month. the euro-dollar not doing much either. in about 20 minutes time, about an hour from now on bloomberg tv, i will be catching up with david from goldman sachs, -- tom: what's he going to do, reaffirm optimism? try to get s&p 6000 out of him. jonathan: six k next year. that's not goldman's, is it yours? make headlines. tom: what's important is the way
they construct their optimism. i'm seeing a real theme from people to forget about the mumbo-jumbo and go back to earnings power and revenue power. david wilson mentioned fedex. jonathan: we have not mentioned that apart from mr. wilson earlier. here they are, weighing on this, kaylee, continued supply chain has slowed u.s. demand compared to the earlier forecast. the current labor environment is in the operation of the network significantly impacting our financial results. there's a lot of stuff to work through for the year-end. kailey: absolutely, kings in the supply chain throughout, and the real shortage of people. the fact that it costs more to have people doing the job. this is the margin compression story. to your point, david and the rest highlighting the earnings story. if the margin suppression is
coming in and the changes -- it changes the story, how do you keep the thesis? tom: i love page 42, they have trouble unloading the truck on madison avenue. jonathan: that's traffic this week. tom: there are so many trucks lined up everywhere. you see what they do to the boxes when they come out. throwing them around. it's a crisis. jonathan: they treat tom spotts is a little differently. i have seen it play out. when we lived together, that was good. tom: you had a better view than i had. you gave me the bedroom -- jonathan: that's not true. you were a solid 20 floors above me. you know that. futures are up. from new york, good morning, the fed decides, special programming a little later. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the fed and david constant with john -- konstin with jon ferro. michael mckee was in today, getting prepared for what may not be a boring press conference. we will look at that. right now, it's a treat for me. especially after this pandemic, to have -- in -- to have david malpass in our building. i have said many times and speeches, the single best english skills crafted at colorado college, i am thrilled to welcome the president of the world bank this morning. we have so much to talk about and not enough time for you and i need to address the delicacies of u.s. president of the world bank, managing not a scandal but an uproar with the managing director of the international monetary fund when she was at the world bank.
you made some important public comments on this. summarize that right now, how you stand in the study of these allegations. david: i think there are bigger stories this morning. the world bank puts a lot of reports. in 2020 there were questions about the integrity of data dating back to 2018. there was an outside firm brought in, a law firm to look at it, the board of directors got into it. the report was last week. this shows irregularities and goes through that. tom: you think the report stands on it sound? david: yes, we discontinued the report. the world bank is going to be very involved in the is this climate, this is critical for establishing jobs and getting
growth and attracting new investment. that's the purpose of the report . the purpose of the world bank is to help countries and the people in the country move ahead. tom: we don't need to get into the nitty-gritty of who did this or what, but is further action needed by you on this uproar? or icing enough, let's move on? david: the report is discontinued and we will look for new ways to have an impact in those areas which i think is most important. tom: it is seven dollars a dose to get a vaccine, why can't we vaccinate africa? david: this is on everyone's mind, the access in the advanced economies, i am chair of a task or's including imf, wto and who. there are 2 billion doses in the
advanced economy. the goal is to have those to go to developing countries where they could use those doses. it's a hard logistics problem. you have to get the dose from the factory to a country that wants that kind of dose. some want mrna doses. some want astrazeneca, someone j&j and down the list. and they sit in a warehouse and are not applied people. that has to be improved. the task force is urging the advanced economies to allow a swapping of doses. if they have a delivery schedules into their warehouses in october of this year or november of this year, allow that dose to go to a developing country person and take a later delivery schedule. you don't need it. you have access to .4 billion doses. -- excess two point 4 billion doses.
-- 2.4 billion doses. kailey: does the abided -- does the biden administration need to take more leadership on this? david: the world has to come together and find solutions. countries are going to want to do boosters as needed to protect their population. that still leaves huge amounts of excess doses, even near-term deliveries. we are working on trying to get november and december deliveries scheduled. so that countries can prepare to deliver. we need that cold storage of personnel on the each kind of vaccine. we need much higher numbers of vaccination. kailey: the united states has made pledges on the vaccine front, also at the united nations, the president doubled
his commitment for the developing world. just how bad is the climate problem in certain areas of the world, from an economic standpoint, how dire is the situation? david: from an adaptation standpoint, preparing for changes in climate, countries are behind area that cost lives. the world bank is the biggest financer of climate change among the international financial institutions. more than half of all finances in the world bank, and over half of that is for adaptation to address countries in low-lying areas. where populations are at risk. the other part of the equation is to identify and prioritize the highest emitters of greenhouse gases and recognize that those have to be brought down. that's a small group of countries with big omissions.
-- emissions. and the projection, there 9000 coal-fired power plants today. there are more in the planning stages. the permits are being issued. these are big challenges. they cost a lot of money. there has to be a plan for what you do with the workers? how do you change the system so there's less greenhouse gas emissions? tom: if china struggling with this, to say the least, the marginal developmental coal, what is the world bank strategy to assist china to a better climate outcome? david: we do have income -- we do have programs but its income has gone up and we are reducing that. most of our programs are in the area of global public goods, specifically marine plastic abatement. a lot of plastic goes into the oceans from the rivers in china. we are working on that heavily. with regard to coal, we do have
one project area in china. but whatever it is in the world, it's hard to decommission an operating coal plant. that's a challenge. the world is looking to china to do that. and i saw yesterday that china released the idea that they are not going to finance coal-fired plants outside of china. that's a step. around the world we need all of those steps. tom: we argan run out of time. but today is a wonderful symbol. you are the first public official to attend with us live in the pandemic. david: it's good to be here. i wish times were better. because there are payouts across the developing world. tom: i won't ask you about fed policy today. thank you. he's the world bank president. we going to this fed meeting, some of the themes we have addressed today could make it
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now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jon: from new york, we begin with the big issue, all eyes on chairman powell. >> jerome powell -- >> chair powell -- >> the meeting today -- >> fed versus covid -- >> the fed has redefined the term temporary. whether the fed will indicate will be -- >> they like to see at least another months worth of employment figures. >> reaching that maximum employment nirvana -- >> the focusing markets will simply be on the language and dot plots. >> chair powell has gotten pretty adept a