tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg September 22, 2021 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
guy: 30 seconds until the european close. what do you need to knows? stocks are bouncing. they are coming back from monday. domestic bonds are clearly without hope. the eu is sounding the alarm over gas prices and the impact that spreads. they are starting to spread out. fertilizer plants are drawing back production. the president macron and biden will discuss things in a call later today. florence johnson is boxing paris -- boris johnson is mocking paris. he did so in very bad french.
this is the market we are seeing right now. metals are on the front foot. we have national gas natural gas very elevated. alix: on monday, you had a rally to the close. today, we are holding onto gains up 1%. they are leading the way. we need to look at the wildcard for the fed. what might put the brakes on things. you have china, for example, and i want to highlight that that it is down by 1%. the ever grand crisis is really heating up and you have some stabilization. the pboc see in jack's liquidity into the business. there is also the pesky natural gas price. you have a little bit of relief in the u.k., but in the united states, gas futures are up right .6%. we have fracking and a lot of
supplies, so that is inflationary. what is the impact of the 10 year yield was smart --? we are talking about one percentage point here. the curve is flattening. it feels like not a ton of movement into the fed. a dovish tilt, or a hawkish hilt. tilt. or hilt. guy: hilt or tilt. i am looking at the fed and wondering if that if they were more hawkish, the market would take that positively. on the negative side, people are weeping over this recovery. we are not going to war about china, we are not when to worry about what is happening with the energy market, we will not worry about anything else. that is the positive view. economists are suggesting that
the fed will announce tapering plans in november. when the central banks stand globally on turning off the money tap, here's what they have to say. >> at a recent july meeting, i was of the view, as were most produce this, that if the economy evolved wildly as anticipated, it would be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset management. >> favorable conditions can be maintained with a moderately slower pace of purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase program. >> we should also not ignore inflation, considering the uncertainty, we should not set in stone monetary policy for too long. guy: our international strategists is joining us now to
talk about what we can expect from the fed later on. alan: the market has a habit of filling two days with conversations that should take two minutes. the focus is very much on, does the median shift in 2022 to a higher level? that would be a big deal. they would effectively be bringing a rate higher, and it would be ahead of the market. in 2023, there would be a common expectation that they will lift up -- and there would be three hikes. that is a possibility there. we will also have a lot in 2024, in terms of how many hikes, and where there would be a point of normalization in terms of rates. how quickly are we going to get there? alix: in terms of bringing
forward a hike, it would not take much change. two dots moving. it does not feel like it would be much of a jump. what would be the repricing in the market for that? alan: i think the market is split between the idea that the fed keeps the 2023 dots and people who think that they have three hikes. i think the real reaction will come if we jump over 2022 dots. that would be a big deal. there'll will be a shift. the response to be pretty effusive. guy: what would cause the fed to be more cautious? there seems to be a long list. defaulting seems to be rising. we may get to that point, or we may not. but china does it broadly, and
they have slowed down. there is language accompanying that. i am wondering what the risks look like on both sides. how do you see the downside risks and do you think we are at a point now where the fed can can do you what it is doing and ignore them? alan: some of the risk you mention, i would not go too deep into it, but china is intriguing and the data is probably most relevant, particularly employment data. there is some degree of impartiality. we want to see the data before we respond, but the burden of responsibility and proof is on the data to prove that the fed should not taper in november. that's where things lie on this issue. alix: you think we are going to be in a world where the central bank converges or diverges?
there is a question for the ecb as to what it will evolve into. the boe is also tomorrow. the market is pricing into hikes for next year, which is confusing some. what are we looking at? alan: it is a story of divergence rather than comverge and's, keeping in mind we had very little action in the g10 central banks. throw be some level of divergence. at the same time, there will be an awful lot of focus, as far as global markets, in terms of what the reserve will do. this is real divergence we are talking about, it is a prescient -- pressure on china. when you look at real divergence, you will see a hike, and the majors central bank might ease.
the g2 access, and china and the fed. guy: we are not talking about replacing powell at the moment. how would the dynamic shift if we were going to get an announcement that he is out and brain artisan -- brainerd is in? alan: there is an expectation of continuity if brainerd was to take over the helm. this is been such an arced dove, that inevitably there would be a little bit of uncertainty, and uncertainty would translate into risk negative response. keep in mind, for the last 40 years, it really is just gone from someone who has been hawked this less hawkish to less hawkish to effectively the most dovish fed chair we've had in the last five central bankers.
there would be a substantial re-think in terms of ok, have we seen a slight change here. i could see a modest legged -- negative risk response. alix: i want to get your tank on the boe and power prices in the u.k.. as an economist, you are going to say this is transitory and not to worry about it, but this could be a shift. it is fundamentally hurting. people have to pay more. your program ruling office as well. how do you factor that into your growth forecast and what central banks have to do? alan: they are in a real dilemma. it is classic supply-side shock. almost all supply shock is the
appropriate response. there is a missed care in terms of inflation and pressure. it is demand related and supply related. the market is anticipating a rate hike in the next year. the question is who is cautious on the part of the bank of england. let this play out a little bit more. if they see inflation expectations on the rise, and a material way, in a sustained way, looking further out two or three years out, they will be pretty much were forced -- forced a response. alix: thank you very much. we will's beak about how russian gas will play an effect. when russia will deliver more gas. this is bloomberg.
>> you would expect prices -- but of course we have to prepare for longer-term high prices. guy: speaking to mp's a little bit earlier on, he is updating parliament on a daily basis about what is happening here. will we see sustained higher prices? we are joined now to answer the question. mid -- maybe the argument is
being made that we need to get used to higher gas prices. is that your view of the world as well? will we have to live with that? >> i think we are seeing to some extent that this is a structural issue. this is not just a u.k. phenomenon. this is across europe. part of that is because we don't expect to see that. there is russian gas coming in. there are competing fuels in europe. coal prices -- gases competing at a high price. that should keep prices for gas in general over the course of 22. alix: what is preventing russian gas from getting to your? -- to europe? >> russia is a gas market which
is about the size of the european union. as a very heavy stock drawing russia. in russia they lets a very heavy stock build. it is going in the russian balance rather than to europe. year on year, we have had a vertical increase in russian gas. we are about 17% down on pre-pandemic levels. guy: for those who make the argument that russia is holding back gas to try and accelerate the nord stream 2. they are off the mark, right? >> i think there are constraints affecting the amount of gas that russia can shift this year. of course, there factor by covid
from an investment point of view. they will want to increase production and it makes the argument that if you give us nord stream 2, we will give you more gas. it is playing into russian calculation to some extent, but this year, it is more a constraint than anything else. alix: where is the switching happening? you mentioned incentives, but what other products will see a price bite because of this? price spike because of this? >> gas is being driven out of the sector and being replaced by coal. we don't have enough gas to put into that and also supply the industry in the domestic market. the residential and home and businesses. now we are getting to a price
point gas where, we are having to ask liquid six step in and generate to the extent they have not done in years. this will have an effect on oil and products. guy: in terms of what this does to wind and solar, but will be the result of this? does this end up accelerating the transition? is that the likely net result? will call step in for the near term, but in the medium-term, does this accelerate the transition to wind and solar and potentially more nuclear? >> that is exactly right, although i would question the idea of having more nuclear. the trend in europe has been to cooling down on nuclear. germany will lose 40 gigawatts
of nuclear this year and next year. although we are increasing the case for eight old out, it is taking time, and that will be leading to a closure of nuclear and coal power. after doing that, it will start to replace gas. alix: at some point, you reverse the flow if needed. where would we see the biggest location and where will we see the biggest dislocation? >> we are starting to see areas of demand that are fairly unresponsive to prices. they do not call in reduce for demand. germany is saying they will put gas into the power sector and the european grid. now we are looking at aspects of industry, for example, where it
is cheaper to import ammonia and produce gas within the continent. that is liquid switching in the power sector. any industry where you can -- pricelist, it is essentially going to be a demand response. it is at very high levels. alix: we really appreciate it. james weddell is a global gas analyst. this is the point we have been trying to make the last couple of weeks. this is not going to be a quick fix. inflation and demand, but in reality this is a big shift in the market and that will at some point affect banker thinking. guy: absolutely. this is a set change. ultimately, we are stepping up to a higher gas price to make that less inflationary at some point, but nevertheless, the biggest question is the drag on
growth. be certain. that is the real issue here. the time being, it is protected from an industry less so. there is a big shift in behavior and a big shift investments. i don't think we are in the foothills of really understanding the implication of that if we are going to see that change. alix: if we are going to import ammonia, that will affect the feedstock. guy: then you have a co2 problem. you then have a problem with other aspects of the supply chain. it continues to rebel. the price hike will be absolutely massive and it should accelerate this year towards the energy transition. quickly enough, probably not. alix: winter is coming.
president biden is holding a virtual covid-19 summit. here the headlines. they will buy doses for the world. they are also launching a vaccine partnership, and the donation will come with no strings attached. they have to fight this information on vaccines. they are partnering on submarines and they are partnering on vaccines. this is bloomberg. >> in fact, this is important. united states is able to make historical donations because we work with united states vaccine manufacturers to accelerate manufacturing rates and production, and now --
they are delaying payments without having to call it a default. the people's bank of china is getting $14 billion in short-term cash to help steady risk. beyond the world bank economy market. european central bank is altering its purchases. it is in certain, according to government councilmembers, while it should allow 2.2 trillion dollar buying program. boris johnson this saying it's time to go. with nuclear summaries. >> some of our dearest friends around the world are coming to grip with this because it is
fundamentally a great step forward towards global security. >> u.k. is looking to be joining the trade agreement between the united states mexico and canada. there is no information about a bilateral trade deal anytime soon. that is your latest business flash. guy? guy: there is greater video with this handshake that never seems to end. boris johnson is having quite a trip to the united states. i'm not sure how the french are going to react. to what he had to say. he speaks very good french, but he obviously is trying to wind paris up in a fairly significant way. they are meeting with the president. alix: it sounds rude when he says it.
it is the way he says the french words. they have a submarine deal, so that is a big win. now, we get a land deal. a new trade deal seems like a hail mary. now that u.k. wants to join nato. if you are french, that was pretty offensive, i am thinking. guy: yes. boris is a long history of that. we should bear that in mind. we have one less trading block, and we are looking at another one that is further away. i wonder import johnson is considering a referendum on such a thing. this is bloomberg.
it is turning out to be quite positive after a monday swoon. we must bear that mine. in terms what we are seeing, right reaction. minors are on the front flip. we will talk about gas a little bit later. it is up 1.2%. lagging bite .9%. a positive session. let's talk about how it has been progressing. we have positive news on ever grand. the market was looking for that. we are tracking higher for most of the day, and a little bit more positive trajectory for the upside led by what is happening ahead of the fed. we are up by around 1% before falling back into the middle and older range. we will track back to the four 70's. the markets are having an effect. minors are on the front foot. on the back of the china story,
they have injected liquidity there. that is what a lot of people are waiting to find out. 3.3%. the transition of gas into the brent prices not direct. it is tracking a little bit lower. the brent is driven by a number of factors at the moment. we are looking at that gas to oil transition. it is having an effect. talking about 10% earlier, in terms of the impact. as we are hearing from jeff earlier. it is clearly a compilation effect. in terms of how we are breaking things down let's take a look at the rotation. banks and the travel ledger. banks got back on monday. we're seeing money flow back into their sector. it is in the metal area. travel ledger.
safer end of the market is taking back in the more riskier end of things. health care is really safe. let us show you the story of the single stocks. up by another 6%. the big news around this time yesterday, which drove the stock up significantly. we're talking a say in terms of what we saw today. thank -- and toe gap style is up today. there is gossip floating around the market around stories. i think it has been described as uncorked. we don't know yet. this is market concept at this point.
antofagasta has reacted to that. deutsche post is down 1.7%. let's stay with the transportation arena. earlier on, i got the opportunity to catch up with the ceo. they had a sustainability event. unsurprisingly, we are waiting to see exactly what is going to come out of that. there are number of industries that are looking at that event at the moment. they are trying to hedge their bet for what is happening. airbus is trying to transition and it is talking about it positively to a high-yield future. it will be a short-haul narrative, not a long-haul narrative. the short-haul narrative could transition by 2025. they are on track to deliver an aircraft at that point. they feel more confident that that could happen. let's catch up with the conversation we had.
>> they are using these and other sectors. we have space on our rockets. we use physics to change high logic on airplanes. we have more confidence every day, but we need to have a plane and the right fuel available in the right quantity in the right place at the right time. we need to be ready. the working collaboration of many people around the globe will help make it happen, and that is why we are creating momentum to make sure we have the right level of collaboration to make them on time. guy: what problems do you need to solve? what needs fixing? what shall we be thinking about? is this a turboprop sized aircraft or smaller aircraft? i we think about the a320 family.
-- are we thinking about the a320 family? >> we need to be able to deliver the fuel at the airport to use the plane on board and store it to use in a fuel cell. we are looking at technology so it is not about programs it is about understanding the technologies and selecting the right ones. when it comes to planes themselves, high origin has a different characteristic and kerosene. there is a difference between hydrogen and kerosene. it takes more volume for the quantity of energy. we are in a different shape and architecture. we will use less hydrogen in terms of weight with less hydrogen on board instead of kerosene. we believe we can shorten
midrange aircrafts before they go longer distances. that is also something we were able to consider when you look at the investment -- a smaller investment for a smaller plane. what we go to market, and it will be more convenient when it comes to hydrogen. guy: we were chatting about the north atlantic, trying to figure out exactly what kind of impact president biden's decision to reopen the north atlantic will have? what is your perspective on this? what will you see this open transition into o.a.t. new wide-body order? >> there is a transition between the north atlantic and the wide-body situation. we are seeing a recovery on the domestic flights, original fights. the pollution increase on the single-line business is have a
very lopez. it is the beginning of a process. i hope it is happening on the north atlantic. there is positive news when it comes to long-distance lights. it is a bit premature. we are very happy to see the most important one and what will be easier to get. on the long-distance situation. very good news for the industry. we need to get it right. i think it is going to be ok. it is important for the united states. we will help engine you will -- in general to create something you'll be happy with. guy: the market believes that you will easily succumb to delivery targets for this year. i am wondering whether the chain issues will have quite a negative impact. what are you seeing in supply
chain right now? any tips shortages, any material shortages? what do you think the energy crisis in europe is going to mean? will have any impact on that? >> we continue to operate in a very challenging and unpredictable environment. 600 for the year really makes sense from our perspective. the supply chain situation is challenging. they are in a difficult spot, as i said earlier, but we are working very closely with the supply chain. look what has been achieved in the last 18 months against the backdrop of this incredible crisis. now that we start to open, we see some difficulties -- challenges in accessing materials, depending on the rises of raw materials, to reopen plants, to rehire or hire people.
it is a challenging situation. we are confident, when it comes to the speed of recovery of our production, we believe the 600 target is a realistic one. guy: the ceo of airbus speaking to me about the sustainability side of the company. they are bringing together a number of different perspectives within the industry. alex, are you happy with that? what is the history of aviation story? everyone seems to think 2035, we will get beyond that. alix: i wonder who will be on pace for that. that is the conversation. no matter where you are in the energy transition. this is an entirely new plane. it is not wind powered versus, you know, gas, for example. that is a huge cost. i wonder who will shoulder that. plus you have to have the technology to make that work.
guy: that is a key step forward. some of it has clearly not been decided. they have a history of working with hydrogen. we sent rockets into space using the stuff. newmarket tech -- the long haul will be more transitional for some time. we will see transitional -- traditional kerosene for long-haul jets. that hasn't been fully sold yet. we don't have the supplies we need. would you get on a hydrogen plane? alix: i would. i'm not scared of planes. i am scared of space. i don't want to go into space and feel like i am in never-ending space and have a panic attack. planes are totally fine. it is aviation fuel. i am all good. coming up, cadet -- equity returns. tech names from the start of the
guy: this is boebert marcus european close. you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. coming up, the former vice chair of the fed, alan binder. it will be at 1:30 p.m. in new york. this is blumer. -- this is bloomberg. inflation is on the minds of the federal reserve as well as financial advisors across the
world, especially those who hold the future of pension employees in their hands. we spoke to the intern cio about how he things about inflation. >> it is a great question is something we have spent a lot of time looking at. in general, we are probably resonating that it is transitory in some way, although probably staying higher than i think we would've thought early on, and frankly, many of the fed watchers would've thought early on. certainly, inflation is an important topic that affects liabilities as well as the asset certainly. is one of the reasons why we have some of the defensive positioning that we have. certainly, inflation is something that we are watching closely. alix: thank you for joining us in studio. it is a real pleasure. charles: thank you. alix: inflation is something
that everyone has to contend with. a higher or neutral rate. you have to make returns. how much risk you feel like you have to take on? how do you calibrate. charles: inflation is something we have been very -- sensations of the we have not had a many years. we have to deal with it. we reposition the portfolio where we feel they are inflationary protected. our call is that inflation will remain transitory or temporary. that being said, we have to acknowledge that it is persistent. it is it permeation into many sectors. we see it fading in the course of 2022. it is something that we need to monitor extremely closely. guy: fading to a higher level than pre-pandemic? charles: our forecast is that it will reach about 2.9% and the united states. that is this -- important in a historical context. we see there is a reason to buy supplies and adjust accordingly. there is a lot of supply
disruption right now and a lot of bottlenecks in many subsectors. that is the main reason, and hopefully the demand will actually reduce that at some point, so we will find an equilibrium. we will see inflation subsiding in the last course of 2022. alix: where'd you put your capital? we talked about tech earlier, and you were under invested intact going into the pandemic. you are upping your portfolio now, but less than your peers. how do you do it and not overpay at the same time? charles: it is an important consideration. the technology, to give unit example, we had about 70 billion canadian dollars that for folio -- portfolio. all the stages in venture capital, pre-ipo growth, and even mature technology. we are catching up on that front. we like b2b software. it fits well with our investment risk profile. it has recurring revenues that
really respond to corporate needs. that is an angle. we have tackled technology in a way that would be low on the risk spectrum to fit our investment profile. guy: in terms of how we should think about tech right now, if you take a look at a lot of the portfolios, that tech in them, what we have seen is effectively a huge increase in duration. tech generally is a long-duration trade. people have moved out as well in terms of what they want to take risk with, in terms of fixed income. it is about the credit markets and in the other market. have you seen a similar thing? is your portfolio a longer duration portfolio, and if so, how much interest rate risk do you think you are currently carrying? charles: there is a real important question to understand. we only manage the asset, they pick up the liability.
we also have a dialogue open with them. if you look at our fixed income, you we have more of a short duration positioning right now. it has actually paid off in the last few months. with the banks, central banks, mobilization kicking in, in later stages they are like 22, it will be an importance positioning in our strategy. there is a shift in the market lately, and you have to be careful. in a higher inflation rate environment, you have to being careful of that duration risk. that being said, longer-term we try to match the duration and have a level of duration that is reasonable to meet the needs of our depositors. alix: you also have another mandate. not just returns, but part of the jet is in investing in the economy. can do is very heavy on oil, but in the middle of the transition, those investments are difficult to stomach for an investor who
needs to show hd credentials to their base. how do you manage that? charles: whether it is oil or gas or any other sector, the transition is underway. you have to get with the program. everyone needs to actually make that payment. i think there is a tremendous amount of capital for any leader in any sector or industry that is serious about transition. it varies. we see some companies that are ahead of the pack on that front, and from our standpoint, we feel that it focuses on transitioning to a real economy and helping those sectors actually get to the transition, and a low carbon future, is quite important. as i said, there are good players in bad players. the reality is, every sector presents opportunities that perspective. guy: do you invest in companies that have to make the transition, or do you invest in companies that don't have the legacy of hydrocarbons associated with them.
clear -- cleaner, pure play energies? a lot of companies are try to make the transition from the legacy aspect. as an investor, do you look there or do you look at the cleaner place. charles: you look at both. if you look at our climate strategy, what we did last four years. we pioneered in the last -- in that front. our target was to go and reduce carbon intensity by 2025. we are at 30%. we will renew our ambition. we have ambition. you have to buy the clean stuff. if you look at the entire portfolio that we have, the forager billion dollars canadian -- $400 billion canadian. that is important. it means that in order to actually reach net zero by 2015, you also have to go into higher
admission sectors and help them transition accordingly. that will move the needle for us as a society collectively. it is important to actually play on all of these fronts. if you look at it, renewables, if you just think for one second what goes into a turban, what is it? steals -- steel, cement, copper. these are notable transactions, unless you make all these inputs and other sections greener, we will not reach a net zero future by 2050, so we have to open all fronts. alix: what kind of return profile do you see in the renewables? i ask, because you see companies that make a transition, some say with the same kind of returns as their oil and gas businesses. what do you see? charles: we are seeing much stronger performance in the renewable space right now. that is for sure. that being said, and often we lose sight of that, esg can be quite inflationary. in terms of existing renewable assets, you have to pay a pretty
high-value value these days. there is also a way to develop new assets, or you can get a better risk return proposition as an investor. from that perspective, you have to be careful. there are other areas where you move those companies and see them in legacy sectors, and you help them transition. that only is there a good delta of alpha improvement to, but you also do what is right for the economy. it is a combination where we see value that are externally high in certain sectors, and we have to stay disciplined. otherwise, this will green of the bubble, no one needs that. guy: thank you for your time. we appreciate you dropping by. that is the ceo, charles emed. thank you very much. we are waiting on the fed. what is the price action look like? >> we are looking at the best day for the s&p 500 since july. let's start out with what is not working. first off, facebook is down 3.8%. this is after saying that apple's new ad policy will put a
drag on growth in the third quarter. it is resulting in lower shares. fedex is a really big down story on the day. it is down 8.1%. the worst day since march of 2020. they missed profit estimates. also, the profit outlook weighed on, having to do with labor. that could really be a dangerous issue, especially for the fed to tackle. you can see upses down. as for what is working, pretty much everything else. conocophillips is up 4.9% read the energy sector is on fire. in sympathy with oil investors who are positive about the economy. freeport is up nearly 5%. it is in line with copper. the demand picture have a more constructive you today. thanks are higher too. there is a big rebound rally for everything reopening and reflationary. alix: thank you a lot. setting us up for the fed which is about two hours away. our correspondent is back. set the stage.
>> we can show you the issue for jay powell. the latest inflationary numbers -- the pce numbers that the fed follows, the growth numbers are falling. inflation numbers are rising. where they fit in there? do they keep stimulating to fitting growth, or do they cut them back? that is the dilemma for pal company. -- how -- that is the dilemma for jay powell and company. we will certainly ask what the confidence level is that inflation will be transitory. it is faster than they had anticipated. they need upgrade that. they need to decide whether they will hint at a taper coming up later in the year. we also will ask about the idea of conflict of interest with some of those guys trading. guy: i wonder how many more press conferences jay powell has.
the succession story is interesting. we will find out. maybe we'll get an announcement on that soon as well. mike, looking forward to the broader coverage. on that fed decision, we have radio and tv starting at 1:30 p.m. in new york. 6:30 p.m. in london. dennis is one of the main events we are watching, with the cdc meeting coming up. we have president biden meeting with members of congress today. he is trying to pull his own party together, alex. alix: we have a ton of central-bank decisions as well. england, swiss one, turkey, and manufacturing data as well. we will have a earnings from nike. quite frankly, mike's question is the herald of the turnup question. we get email saying that his is always the best question. let's keep that in mind when watching the special. guy: it's going to be exciting. alix: i'm good now. guy: balance of powers coming
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david: welcome to "balance of power." coming up, and extended interview with john kerry as he talks about the commitments president biden and president xi made yesterday and what comes next. the house of representatives last night as the democratic to continue government funding and has been the debt ceiling. for the latest, we turn the joe mathieu. joe, welcome. it is not too big of a surprise. what happens next? joe: we have eight days left in figure out a way to fund the government and that bill that passed the house last night includes a suspension of the debt ceiling does not have republican support to