tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg September 23, 2021 10:00am-11:00am EDT
with alix steel and guy johnson. ♪ guy: thursday the 23rd. 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. welcome everybody to "bloomberg markets." evergrande on the edge. the fed and the boe turning a little bit more hawkish. stocks are higher. alix: it seems like the path of least resistance is inflation and equities. the s&p up 1%. you have a huge rally in the financials. a great quote yesterday said we are trading like a reflation trade, except for the bond market because you had that flatter yield curve, the shorter end coming up a little bit on those taper indicators, as well as potentially bring you hike into 2022. now we are getting a pretty solid selloff on the back end of the bond market. this is nothing compared to what
we are seeing in the u.k.. short-term yields flying higher, up by about 10 basis points. dollar a little bit softer, also because you're getting some strength in the cable rate. strength and the pound, i should say. the vix under 20. we got through it. there were no crazy surprises. we are set up for maybe one hike in 2022. we will see, but the transition seems to be set. guy: this was exactly what the script said, and it was delivered upon. as a result of which, the market is moving on from taper to rate hikes. i think that is the debate that will capture so much of our time over the next few weeks and months. china is front and center. financial regulators issuing a broad set of instructions to evergrande overnight, telling the embattled the leper to avoid near-term default. damian sassower has been covering this story from the get go.
they seem to be preparing for that. is evergrande about to be made an example of? damian: we've come along way into 20 -- in 24 hours. they said they would break it into three separate entities, and of course, today that has been blown up and set aside. am in conversations with people who own those dollar bonds issued by evergrande. that coupon is due today. they have yet to receive that $84 million. there's a 30 day grace period before the company goes into technical default, but all indications point to the fact that that payment will not be made. alix: quick follow on that, what is the effect in terms of the bond market within china? damian: we are seeing losses
across the board. i was just running those numbers. the reality is it is right across the screen, and over the last month. we are seeing contagion spillover into the broader china dollar bond complex. for me, this is about whether it hits the real economy, and all indications are that it will. we see home prices dropping, retail sales dropping, and we keep trying to rise to the occasion here in terms of injecting capital into the system. we had pumped into the system by the pboc this morning, but china is not paying some employees internally, and certainly suppliers are waiting for payments as well. alix: thanks a lot, damian sassower of bloomberg intelligence. let's get a deeper look at the
broader market fallout. abigail doolittle is here with more. abigail: everything in life is perception, so even though there might be a situation worsening in china live to evergrande, with the idea that the chinese government is saying don't step in, you've got stocks higher. the msci china index climbed higher by 0.9% just on that idea of china telling evergrande, do not default. that is helping out the stoxx 600. europe has quite a bit of exposure to china. the s&p 500 much higher than it had been relative to the futures earlier, now looking at a massive today rally, up more than 2% for the s&p 500. that probably has to do more with the fed. finally, we rounded it out with the china tech index in the u.s. that is down, so that shows some of those nerves, down 0.5%. there's been lots of talk about contagion. is it going to hurt the bond markets here?
this was the bear market here in the u.s. of the pandemic crisis. you can see that is sky high as risk fear was really in. now we see spreads really quite tight, suggesting there's not a lot of contagion in these markets at all let up to evergrande. finally, the big question could be will evergrande turned into a zombie, a company that is technically in default, but continues to go on. we can see lots of growth in real estate over the last 10 years. there's been a ton of growth of these companies in recent years, and the reason, not surprisingly, fed and central-bank liquidity. guy: let's see how the data plugs into what the fed will do next. jobless claims unexpectedly picking up. the labor market and duties what can only be described -- they were market continues what can only be described as a choppy recovery.
on one hand, you could argue that a struggling labor market helps out because the supply and demand side get into killed her. on the other hand, you could argue that it helps out the hawks because ultimately, that is a strong economy and we need to lean in on that. mckee here to answer all of these critical questions. how do you read the fed? how does the data on the labor market plug into the nerve going forward -- into the narrative going forward? michael: the jobless claims numbers don't tell us a whole lot about how many jobs are added, but they do point to a downside risk for that report because as you mention, there is another increase. we go up to 351,000 from 335,000 last week. it does suggest that for some reason, there are more people losing their jobs. the other half of that is the total number of people who are
getting claims. it is not up to the minute with numbers, but it falls to 11,250,000 from 12,106,000, but it is the day before benefits were cut off, so next week will be important. we will see if that benefit cut off really get people off the unplanned roles, and may be looking for more jobs. this leads into whether or not the fed does start its taper in november. unless it is a terrible report, they probably will. my isn't the market upset about this? this is the taper, which works out to about $15 billion a month. that is 660 billion dollars still going into the economy between now and next june, so there's still a lot of support out there on the monetary policy side for the u.s. economy. alix: in the market, it does
seem like we are trying to reprice the hikes. nowhere do you see that more than the boe. gilt yields soaring higher. what did we learn from the boe that is causing that kind of market reaction? michael: they are suffering not only from the supply chain rebound problem that everybody has, but also from brexit, and prices are going up, particularly for energy and food. that is a long-term problem for the bank of england. they are now suggesting they may have to raise rates sooner rather than later. their latest forecast shows 4.8% inflation continuing into 2022, a dramatic increase from them. as you saw from the monetary policy committee, develop and's since the last meeting appeared to strengthen the case for a rate rise. alix: appreciate it. it is wooden slabs, right? that's the thing you can't get? guy: there are certain types of lumber you can't get in the u.k. right now because they are being
imported. talk to the lumber providers, they are telling you it could take longer even for the stuff they can get because the truck drivers aren't there. the new look at what is happening with petrol stations. bp is basically having to shut down a number of gas stations because it can't get enough drivers to drive gasoline around. there's a brexit affect in here. then you've got the energy story. it is all coming together. it could be, as you have been alluding to, a difficult winter coming up for the u.k. alix: we've got a risk on move still taking hold here. you've got stocks rallying. a move in the bond market. mark cabana, b of a head of u.s. rates strategy, will join us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
chair powell: we continue to expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels -- to moderately exceed 2% for some time. if progress continues broadly as expected, the committee judges that moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. participants generally viewed that so long as the recovery remains on track, a gradual tapering process that concludes around the middle of next year is likely to be appropriate. half of fomc part is up and's forecast that these favorable economic conditions will be fulfilled by the end of next year. as a result, the median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate
lies slightly above the affected lower bound in 2022. alix: that was fed chair jay powell speaking yesterday. joining us now is mark cabana, bank of america global head of u.s. rates. take a look at the curve. flatter yesterday, trajectory still flat, yet we are seeing a steepener relative to yesterday. what does the bond market tell you about what it learned from powell? mark: yesterday i think the bond market was telling us that the fed was more hawkish than anticipated. today i think the market is trying to more deeply digest what the fed suggested and understand that if downside risks diminish, this is a fed that is going to want to hike rates, and that should imply a higher directory of overall interest rates. it is a fed that seems like they want to get going, and if they do, rates probably need to price and the fact that there will be rate increases in the future and
overall levels of interest rates need to be higher. guy: this seems like the meeting that provided the catalyst for the market to move on from thinking about a taper to thinking about rates. in terms of the implications of that shift, what are they? mark: on the surface, powell said we are going to try to disentangle taper from rate hikes, but that is not what the market heard. what the market heard is there's a lot of momentum for the fed to taper in november, which is our base case and has been for some time, and wrap it up by the middle of next year. that clears the runway for the fed to start raising rates. if you look at economic projections, they do imply core pce that it's expected to be a bit higher than the fed expected in june, and there is building momentum at the fed for rate hikes. not only did we see half a hike in 2022, but you saw the distribution shift of those dots
in 2023. you saw only one participant that did not believe it was appropriate to raise rates at all in 2023. certainly, most of the fed believes they are going to get going, and if the fed wraps up taper by the middle of next year, that does increase the possibility for the fed to start raising rates by the end of 2022, if not early in 2023. so i think it was really the middle of 2022 comment that focused the fed a bit more on the possibility for a rate hike. alix: let's say a six-month window between ending paper and hiking rates. is that enough time? is the sequencing right? how do you price something looked at in? mark: in the last cycle, there was a 12 month gap. just because that is what they did last time doesn't mean that is what they will do this time as well. what it does mean is that if the
fed wraps up tapering by the middle of next year, it clears the runway. if you think that inflation is going to be a problem, if you think inflation is going to be materially above 2%, this is a fed probably not hiking three times in 2023, but four times. they are going to need to dial back the level of accommodation in order to try to get inflation under control. that means rate hikes. for the market, if you are in the hiking camp that the fed is going to need to go, they are probably going to go a little faster than the market is currently pricing, and they could start potentially sooner. that is why getting taper out of the way is so important to the market in terms of when we will see potential liftoff and how quickly the fed is going to go. guy: this economic cycle seems to be happening quickly. how should we read the data going forward from here when we think about the debate you have just laid out about whether or not inflation is going to need
more rate hikes than are currently priced? the problem at the moment is clearly a supply-side one. we've got a huge amount of demand, but a supply-side shortage. if we start to see decent prints on the payrolls, does that imply that we are starting to see supply and demand coming back into balance? does that encourage a slower rate hiking cycle? or does a full labor market imply that we should be having more rate hikes? i'm confused about how we should be reading the data going forward and how the fed is going to interpret it. mark: supply-side questions are the question, and with this really means is inflation. how long are these transitory impacts, or may be persistent impacts on inflation, going to stick around for? what we have seen is that
supply, whether it be labor supply or inputs for goods or services, has taken a lot longer to come back. that is going to be the core question the fed is looking at, how long are these supply shortages likely to take place, what does that mean for inflation, and what does it mean for inflation expectations. the fed has told us they see risks that inflation comes into the high side of their projections. they are worried about more upward pressure on prices then what they have penciled into their forecasts. if inflation persists, at this time next year, i think we are going to be talking about rate hikes in the not-too-distant future. on rate hikes, the key determinant is inflation. supply is what is going to matter most for that. alix: what is your favorite trade right now? mark: we continue like five-year real rates moving higher. we saw that yesterday after the
fed. we think we are going to see that continue. we like it for a couple of different reasons. fundamentally, fives are probably going to have to priced in a fed that is going to move a little faster than the market has anticipated. breakevens are pretty much pricing a fed that is going to hit their 2% inflation target, so five-year real rates are likely going to be responsible for what moves fives higher. when the fed tapers, there is an important technical here where we think their purchases have had an outsized influence on tips at the front end of the curve, when you look at what they are buying in relation to with the treasury is influencing. also, the treasury is going to cut supply in nominal at the november refunding meeting. but when they do that, they are not going to cut tip supply. that is going to be another factor that supports higher overall five-year real rates.
if you want to play a more hawkish fed, we think the better trade for that is higher five-year real rates. guy: always a pleasure. a pleasure. very insightful. thank you very much, indeed. we will carry on the conversation. darden delivers. why shares in the olive go to -- the olive garden owner are rising. this is bloomberg. ♪
initial and employment claims in regular state programs rose to 351,000 in the week ending september 18, according to the labor department. iran's oil minister says opec and allies are working to keep oil prices near $70 a barrel. the official reportedly said the ministry is aiming to keep the price at more than $65 per barrel, and that oil from iraq will keep rising. softbank is leading a 200 million dollar investment in a robotics start up that helped new york city with its covid-19 testing process. the move boosted the value to $1.8 billion. last summer, the company's robots helped alleviate massive testing delays in new york by performing repetitive tasks. guy: olive garden owner darden restaurants posting a beat despite huge headwinds with
staffing and input costs. dave wilson digging into the numbers. dave: this is a company that, you mentioned olive garden, it is about half of their revenue. another 1/4 comes from longhorn steakhouse. they have other brands as well. put it all together, and you're talking about a company that is more optimistic for its fiscal year that ends next may. raising forecasts for earnings, for sales. you're looking at sales in locations being more than 30% up. sales have already recovered from the hit they took during the coronavirus pandemic. the latest quarter, $2.3 billion. second quarter in a row they were around that level. darden has been on a tear over the years if you look at their
chart. this would be the biggest advance since that streak began, so darden has a lot going for at this point. alix: i had point out, just so you know, unlimited breadsticks is the thing at olive garden. they just keep coming. guy: honestly, my family would love that. they would be all over that. alix: of course they would. guy: keep it coming. alix: the pandemic was obviously a big factor for these kind of restaurants. how has it impacted darden's operations now? dave: they are trying to deal with it as best they can, but you just look at where darden restaurants are located, you can see that the pandemic would have an effect. three of the four biggest states, georgia, florida, and texas. on top of that, california. those together, that is 1/3 of
their locations. they are now expecting costs to be more of an issue than they did previously. they are looking at something like or percent inflation for the current fiscal year in their business, up from about 3% previously. so it is clear that the kind of issues that are affecting a lot of companies at this point are showing up with darden as well. alix: at least everyone is having to deal with it. it is then just how you manage it. really appreciate it, dave wilson joining us there. we will focus on food pricing and soft commodities. we have seen a huge rally in food inflation all across the globe. we will break that down in our exclusive interview with david mcclendon -- with david maclennan, kargil ceo. ♪
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in many products six months plus. so we have orders visibility well into 2022 already. we would have even more if we would open up more orders. we stopped taking orders on some products because we don't want to set the wrong expert patient. -- wrong expectation. alix: that was the adco ceo -- the agco ceo. he just can't meet those orders, he topped -- so he stopped taking any because there are some a supply chain issues. this is why demand is so strong. this is the real food price index. we are nearing the highs we haven't seen since the 1970's, so demand is definitely there. the inflation in food is definitely there. guy: there is so much that goes
into this story. we are getting data right now from the eia on natural gas stockpiles in the united states. for you guys, stockpiles are going up. they rose 76 bcf last week. that has fed into the food supply changes. because of what is happening with fertilizer plants, there's a co2 problem we are facing, and it goes on and on. there are so many linkages in this story at the moment. there's later shortages -- there's labor forges. dave maclennan is the cargill chairman and ceo. he's got unique insight into what is happening here. one of the world's biggest ag companies out there, with great visibility. welcome to the program. thank you for your time. we really appreciate it. would everybody is trying to work out right now is are these high prices transitory, not only in food and energy.
what are you seeing right now? is this going to be transitory? dave: good morning, everybody. i think it is going to be transitory. this is the dialogue not just in all products, but particularly in ag and food. there are issues in the supply chain, everything from labor shortages to the impacts of climate change, extreme weather events, demand for biofuels. there's a lot of pressure on the supply chain, but i think what i have been really struck by an the last 18 months since the beginning of covid is the resilience of the supply chain and the ability of farmers to figure out how to get their products to markets, and for all players to figure out how to get food where it is needed the most. so i am optimistic that supply chain issues will clear up over time. alix: when guy was pointing out
the inventory numbers, part of that is going to be the aftermath of hurricane ida. that also speaks to something you are dealing with. reserve in louisiana hasn't been able to restart because of the storm. i wonder if you can give us an update on any kind of timeline for that because that is causing some of those short-term distortions. dave: it really is, and it couldn't come at a worse time, at the beginning of the u.s. harvest and meeting to get products from the farm on the river, to the port, and out for export. t we h -- we had two facilities that were hit very hard. our employees have been so resilient. there's a local town where many of our employees live in louisiana, so we have been helping them get back on their feet. in many cases, their houses were destroyed or severely damaged. i have been very impressed to
see how quickly we have been able to get it up and running. as far as reserve goes, it is still to be determined. it is amazing to see and all supply chains, but in that area in particular, everybody is pulling together to get things back up and running. but reserve is yet to be open yet. guy: it is an interesting point. we are now turning our eyes towards the meeting in glasgow. the environment is becoming a focus for so many industries, including yours. are you thinking about hardening what you do in terms of the facilities you are building an extra dust and see -- of the facilities? are you building in extra redundancies? we are seeing significantly more volatility. what does that mean for your customers, for the industry? dave: the resilience and
diversity of the supply chain is really important, and climate change is having an going to continue to have a big impact on the growth of agricultural products, the production of them , but also how they get transported. i think it is one of the benefits of having a large global agricultural company like ourselves. we have the diversity of supply chains. we are able to export from either south america or north america. there will be a reduction in exports coming because of hurricane ida, but i think the point is you have to build resilient supply chains that are diverse in terms of where facilities are located. i think one of the benefits of having a large, diverse company
is learning when to shift supply chains when necessary. alix: what is the hold up and getting back to operational level? in the meantime, what are you doing with all of the shipments that need to go there? dave: the hold up, the pictures were devastating, just the damage that was done to the facility, as i mentioned. more importantly, our employees and where they lived in their damage to the community. we just wanted to focus on taking care of them first, so it is just a logistical issue. we had 85 arches scattered throughout that ever that had previously been lined up for shipping. we've had several friends, living lands and waters is one, and they have lent their crews in order to help us retrieve the
barges. i think it's only been about two and a half weeks, but certainly there is urgency both on the people, but also on the logistics, just retrieving the barges to get them to be able to move. as to your second question, that means everything backs up. whether they have to stay in the field, maybe the crops have to stay in storage longer, but it just reverses everything up the mississippi river while waiting for things to clear through that bottleneck known as the mississippi river gulf, where they were hit by hurricane ida. guy: it is obviously going to be something we are going to watch very carefully, the food supply chains around the world being stretched like never before. let's talk a little bit about what you said a few moments ago about needing to be bigger, needing to be diverse, needing to have a global footprint. we've got the cargill continental grain higher is a
prospect. you are already big in beef. you are moving into poultry. i wonder if you can update us on what kind of progress you are seeing there. i would be interested to get some comments from you on a problem we are experiencing in the u.k. and across europe, which is that we are seeing high-energy prices lead to fertilizer plants being shut down, leading to co2 shortages which is hitting the poultry industry really hard. it is hitting the meat industry really hard, more broadly. i am curious to get your reaction to that, and whether or not that is something we could potentially experience elsewhere , for instance in the united states. guy: i will start with the poultry. we are in the poultry business, and we have been for a long time , just not in the u.s. so we felt that this was an opportunity to fill consumer demand. our customers and consumers want to eat more chicken, and they want to consume different kinds
of animal-based protein, and addition to beef and fish. so this was an opportunity for us to take the expertise at both wayne and cargill in our global poultry operations to come together to purchase sanderson farms. so we expect that will close sometimes in 2022. i think people have a new appreciation, or i should say, consumers help have a new appreciation for the complexity of our supply chain, meaning the complicity of ag and food. rather than just go in a grocery store and think i am going to buy this, all of the supply chains that people have, there are italians and millions of people who work to get the crops out of the field -- there are thousands and millions of people who work to get the crops out of the field and into the product. a shortage of co2 can also come
from different types of manufacturing plants. they all connect. the fact is, at one point, what you are seeing in europe is labor shortages. we have a turkey facility in virginia that we are only able to run at 70% capacity because of labor shortages. so we have increased wages. we have offered sign-on bonuses. we have offered enhanced 401(k) benefits, on-site health care and daycare. but the fact is, we are still short of labor. that is something we really have to watch care as it relates to long-term inflation, but also capacity utilization, which there is a shortage of today because of labor shortages. alix: bloomberg reported that you guys had almost $5 billion net income for the fiscal year 2021. you stopped disclosing all of that publicly, but you are such a powerhouse ag in trading, also
your metals trading businesses, and the volatility we have seen has got to have been a huge boon for you guys. can you give me perspective as to how you are doing now? dave: we have a fiscal year that ends may 31, and as you know well, there is a lot of volatility in ag markets. there were significant pull from china, there was weather concerns, especially this spring , so there are not huge crops, but better than people feared in the spring of this calendar year. but when there is volatility, it means there is opportunity to help our customers manage their risk, help hedge their positions, and when you have a
trading put into your business, which helps us manage our risk for ourselves, but also for our customers, there are trading benefits involved with that. we do have a very successful metals trading business, and there has been, as you know, in the steel business and metal, there has been a lot of price volatility. when companies have a trading component, volatility means risk management. it means hedging opportunities. and that was a component of our fiscal year results. that you referred to. alix: dave, we could talk to you for half an hour, but we will let you go. dave maclennan, cargill chairman and ceo, thank you very much. tune in later to "commodities edge." we will talk a lot about this power prices in the feedthrough into oil. the new york health commissioner
howard zucker has just resigned. current governor kathy hochul announced his resignation during a virus briefing. we will bring you more updates as they cross. you go, guy. guy: i have to say, that interview was one of the most interesting conversations i've had in a long time. genuinely interesting on so many areas, and great insight into what is happening around the world. coming up, it is the story moving european markets. the chinese government's warning local offices that evergrande may fail. alpine's chief global macro strategist joining us to talk about this. how bad could it get? what are the applications for the economy? that conversation is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
coming up, former bank of england governor -- coming up, mark carney, former bank of england governor. this is bloomberg. chair powell: the evergrande situation, it seems very particular to china. there's not a lot of direct united states exposure. the big chinese banks are not tremendously exposed. >> at this point, i don't see this developing into a global crisis. >> there is a second-order impact on the capital markets and the bond markets. >> they own the company's comedy banks. they control the news. so i don't see a lot of trust in the whole system. guy: it was noel quinn's
comments there that were concerning. central bankers trying to divert attention away from it. is there the potential for some thing like lehman to happen here? this whole lehman story is probably over egging the point. why does it have to be like lehman? we don't know yet what is going to happen with evergrande. we are excepting news on the dollar bond payments. let's try to get an idea of what is happening. alpine global chief global strategist chen zhao joining us to dive into this conversation. let's talk about the chinese authorities' attitude toward evergrande. tom orlik said that there is a chinese phrase that says you slaughter the chickens to frighten the monkeys, i.e. you
try to change behavior by making an example of someone or something. is that what is about to happen here? chen: the right way to say it is to kill a chicken to scare the monkeys. guy: i may have misquoted him. chen: this is an old chinese proverb, but it is very adequate to describe the situation. this is not a systemic event because in the end, it is a group of chinese creditors that are owed money by another group of people, and most of the debt is denominated in chinese currency. i thing there is very little counterparty risk. when you think about a financial institution actually failing, you are really worried about counterparty risk, stuff like that.
but this is a reasonably simple operation. the liability is reasonably well defined. it is a supplier and homebuyer that formed the big chunk of its liability. but i try to emphasize this. this is the intended consequence of xi jinping's deleveraging campaign. they have been saying for a long time, ever since he took over power in 2013, he has been on this deleveraging and de-risking campaign, and this is a part of it. i think this is a controlled implosion of several big companies get this is one of them. there are a bunch of others. one was privately owned that went bust. fortune land development, also public listed property company.
alix: you are totally right. it is not just evergrande. it is just the biggest. if we focus on dollar bonds, you have seen a rally in prices over the last 24 hours. is this a good buying opportunity for foreign investors? chen: i think the chinese authorities seem to hint that they would like to see the payment on this dollar bond being honored, but i simply don't know how. i think the dollar bondholders are going to have a haircut, probably not as much as domestic bond orders. guy: there is some suggestion of $0.25, $0.30 on the dollar. we'll see where we end up.
this may not be a systemic event, but it is going to be a huge economic event. the chinese economy has focused on construction, on building stuff for many years, and construction is the biggest portion from a sector point of view of the economy. if we were to see evergrande going down, and we are going to see a ripple effect into other builders as well, they are going to be much more cautious. they are going to take a much more cautious stance. what is the economic effect of that, and what will be the economic effect of that on global growth? chen: i think it is pretty obvious that right now, what happens 12 the borrowing costs for developers, they have jumped about 3% or 4%. it is a pretty significant increase. so the borrowing costs for all of these developers are higher, and i think there will be more
bankruptcies and economic activities in the real estate sector and in the construction sector that will respond to that higher borrowing cost and the government campaign to actually slash loans to this sector. this will definitely add downward pressure in that sector. as far as the global economic implication is concerned, i think it is marginally deflationary. they will probably be bullish for the dollar and bullish everything else for the u.s. treasury bond. that is how i read it. alix: good to catch up. chen zhao, alpine global chief macro strategist. bloomberg will have special coverage of the evergrande effect tonight at nine pulling 30 p.m. -- at 9:30 p.m..
alix: looking at the bond market in the u.s., you're seeing yields spike higher, but it is not us. it is you guys leaving the bond market right now. [laughter] guy: it is this bank of england story. the fed was a low but hawkish. the bank of england was more hawkish. -- was a little bit hawkish. bank of england was more hawkish. it has a lot to deal with. all of this is coming together. the pmi data today out of europe showing a significant impact in terms of the supply chain story into the economy. chris williamson, ihs chief business economist, is going to be joining us next. ning us next.
european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ guy: thursday the 23rd. dirty to the close. you are watching -- 30 to the close. you are watching "the european close." the bank of england is the main event in many ways today, saying the case for changing monetary policy is strengthening. pmi data out of europe showing momentum has likely slowed markedly, according to ihs. supply chain and labor shortages hitting markets. and the