tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 24, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
way in the 40 days. >> we like equities and are overweight. unless we get a big pullback. >> this is a grinding dollar story. >> as long as the public believes in the mark -- in the market, it will move higher. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a chappie week. this is bloomberg surveillance: live. alongside lisa abramowicz, i have tom ferro. we had kailey leinz. lisa, let's start with the price action, a new cap is set up for -- north of 140. the market is breaking down a little bit this friday morning.
lisa: this is taking hold with the idea of higher stocks, we do see the territories and this is notable after so many boring sessions. . jonathan: a sign of resiliency or complacency? lisa: that the key question. it's not been disruptive to the idea of a stronger equity lift. but it's coming from all parts of the global bond market. there is a shift to a more hawkish tone, globally. this will have ramifications, and that's when i'm watching. jonathan: we have a ton to get through. kailey leinz, bitcoin is down by 5%, china saying no. kailey: the pboc saying that all crypto transactions are illegal. this seems to be an extension of the pre-existing crackdown on crypto that china has been undergoing for years. the question raised is what
exactly defines a transaction? depending on how you define that, that is what will tell us whether this is a hard-line move from china, or incremental moves in crackdowns on crypto. jonathan: this is a regulator worried about capital. lisa: basically, especially as they try to clamp down on the economy and make it insular as a time of slowing growth and a housing market with a lot of questions. jonathan: we have evergrande issues per a let's start with the price action, down on the essen. would you believe this, coming into friday we are positive on the week on the s&p 500. yield coming in a couple of basis point with yesterday's price action phenomenal, yields breaking out. we have been talking about the low one 30's for the last month, now the low one 40's, 14080 -- one .408.
and the u.s. dollar. lisa: the scope of these moves, we saw actual movement, the biggest move up in yield yesterday going back to february. the biggest gains in the s&p 500 as well. like the fed did its job. fed chair jay powell and the vice chair will be at a fed speak event. i want to hear what they say and i want to hear about the balance sheet and how they view the threshold. we saw a new all-time high in new york on a thursday evening. we saw that we have a new all-time high of nearly eight point $5 trillion for the balance sheet. what's the risk of letting it grow versus starting to taper at a time of economic uncertainty? at 10:00, there's a question about home sales, there has been deceleration.
i am curious to see any ramifications for the expectation of tapering. if you look at mortgage rates, they have reached a low of about 3% in the united states. how much could that climb as they pare back some of the purchases of mortgage debt. today president biden is hosting world leaders to help their discussion on their first in person meeting to figure out how to come up with an asian-pacific strategy in a region currently dominated by china. it goes back to that story. lisa: let's take a look at nike -- jonathan: let's take a look at nike. you have touched on this in the morning, a big focus on this. double digit to the mid-single digits with the focus on vietnam and supply. kailey: factory closures really heading nike where it hurts considering it sources 40
percent of its products from vietnam. the issue is not demand, it's on the supply side. nike says we can't get enough supply to meet that demand. overnight it was not just nike, cosco also saying it will have to raise prices by 3.5% to 4.5% because of some bottlenecks and higher input costs. jonathan: let's talk about this. the cost of shipping it 40 foot container from shanghai to l.a. or new york 18 months ago was about to k. it's now 12 k, 14 k, 16 k. that's a massive change. lisa: they are grappling with that and trying to figure out how much they could pass on to consumers and how much they could suck up. cosco said we are not that noble. we can't be a. we are a business and we have to pass it to you. so how much do consumers absorb? jonathan: and a well-known brace of things to worry about near-term could prove positive
for the market. it john is joining us now. we have been talking about a range of issues, points of tension. you think they are turning positive, why? >> thank you for having me. a few things you have to consider, this is not a typical coming out of a crisis -- a typical coming out of the crisis. the main point is, are these going to be addressed? business people tend to address them, and rather quickly the aid of technology, and the process of competition bound to resume at pre-pandemic levels probably over the course of the next quarter or two quarters. so we are positive on equities. but i think the question and investor has to ask themselves, are they traders or are there goes out three months, six
months, 18 months? lisa: that's a fair point. what's the advisable approach? how are you shifting your view after hearing from the federal reserve and their plan to taper? john: yesterday we saw a substantial jump in the yield of the 10 year treasury. i think right now it is up over 20% from the low that it hit on august 3. but it is still off about 18% from the peak when it hit 1.74% back in march. so we think the 10 year treasury is probably where it should be, based on where we are headed in terms of things improving along the line. but the bond market always has a tendency to either oversell or overdue itself. for investors, stay the course. we want growth and value and
growth at a reasonable price. and when we find those in things like technology and consumer discretionary, and industrials. kailey: we are still 30 basis points from the highs of march but at one point -- at what point do higher yields become problematic? john: considerably further from here. i think it's 3% which we saw at 2018, and the first quarter of 2018 wayside again in the second quarter and forth -- we saw it again in the second and fourth quarter. that is what tips the apple card to negatives. but we don't think we are heading to that type of inflation in terms of stickiness . we believe in what the fed is saying and we think it's highly
transitional inflation, at this point. and we think the administration has a point in asking to see inventories to get an idea of where producers are in a variety of things. there is a tendency, when you're getting a higher price, you don't want to lower your price, you want to keep the emergency pricing for longer. especially with consumers and businesses coming out of the pandemic are liable to -- libel to accept it easier before they go back to comparison. jonathan: it's not too early to start talking about earlier -- earnings season. we are looking at numbers from fedex, can you explain the single anchor that will keep the equity market going through earnings season if we see a lot more nikes and feta axes -- fedexs? john: you have to consider both
of those businesses have exposures that are particular. with nike it's covid and vietnam , as well as the lack of containers. the jam at the various ports to get goods coming in. in terms of fedex, within the transition that has been happening there is competition coming up from amazon wanting to do its own shipping. ups seems to know the game quite well and is a good competitor. those two i don't regard as touchstones of concern. jonathan: good to catch up as always. the second half of this week is coming its way. lisa: this is absolutely the case with growth year value, whatever that means. whether we are changing our lexicon because now he was a
little scary. do you think that's the path forward? what is it mean to you? jonathan: no idea, earnings season is going to be tricky. there is a fear that we are going to see a lot more nike and fedex. kailey: we are going to have to wait and see. customers have borne the brunt of a lot of these input costs. but if you are not seeing the wage inflation that allows consumers to pay more at the counter, there's a question of how much longer, especially for a lot of those consumer companies, how they are able to pass those on. jonathan: will margins hold up? you might have noticed the photos of prince carrie in the cart -- prince harry in the carlisle. that's at tom's favorite bar. tom has a day off, prince harry is in the same bar. you work it out. we are negative at 131%. from new york city, this is
bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the influential sister of kim jong-un says her country is willing to really -- renew talks with south korea if certain conditions are met, indicating that they want seoul to persuade the u.s. to relax economic sanctions. the u.s. is investigating the january 6 riding at the capital, there your have been a number connections to president trump including steve bannon, there are subpoenas as well as the deposition set for september -- depositions. i funds may have to be designed to use usb charging ports under the european commission who
wants a single type of charging port for all smartphones and tablets as well as equipment such as cameras and portable speakers. apple says this risks hurting innovation. an investigation has been launched for market abuse. a company was in talk with the government over -- [indiscernible] global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪
that this is to pay incurred costs, last year, we came together and incurred costs of covid that need to be paid for. this is a credit card bill that we own. jonathan: speaker hello c. -- speaker pelosi. -- a move of 10 basis points, lisa abramowicz, what did you make after the flat that we saw on wednesday coming out of the fed and then on thursday that aggressive move higher. lisa: i thought it was interesting.
this is a global bond market and it really is a synchronized tightening. this did not rattle risk markets. jonathan: equities with a risk. absolutely nailing this. she felt uncomfortable, we get a flattening of the decision, there would be a focus on the dot, and the following day she would be looking for a steeper curve through the next several weeks. why she things the focus would shift from dots to tapering, kaylee -- kailey leinz, she was dead on. kailey: she was. this is reflect in a stronger u.s. economy. i could argue the reason we did not see equities raised by higher yield is because equities and the bond market have been sending different signals. they have continually climbed, the bond market is more cautious and maybe those are more in line.
i will note that the move higher in yields was not driven by breakevens but real yields. jonathan: we need to talk about the debt ceiling. let's bring in emily wilkins. we know the republican line here. the message to the democrats, get it done. to democrats the message back is these bills are coming in together and we need to raise the debt ceiling together. bring the debate to us. emily: you did a good job of summing up whereabouts both sides -- both sides are. democrats are saying republicans have to come with us. republicans are saying we do not. you need to use the reconciliation process and move it with only democratic votes. a big question is the timeline. they are dealing with that stopgap measure to make sure that the u.s. government does not shut down on october 1. but after that they have to deal with the debt ceiling and that deadline.
this reconciliation process that republicans are saying democrats need to use and that frankly democrats will have to use of republicans don't come with them, that takes time. it's not something you can get done in a couple of days or even a week. it's a multiweek process. something lawmakers need to begin around this time. we heard from john yarmuth who said that his office felt like they do not have enough time to get it done. lisa: can you parse through the political nonsense every time we hear there's a debt ceiling? give us a sense of how cohesive the democrats are, yesterday we heard from schumer there's -- to pay for this and other democrats and we did not know anything. emily: there is a lot of confusion. the majority leader said as much to reporters, there's confusion about how they are moving ahead on the infrastructure and social spending bills which make up president biden's big agenda.
there's a lot of questions right now about whether or not we are going to see that infrastructure vote on monday as moderate have demanded that there be. if that comes on monday, progressive said they will sing the bill. there are not enough republican votes if progressives don't let that pass and that could be embarrassing. lisa: and democrats are going after gina raimondo, trying to gauge how much inventory of chips companies have, implying that companies are hoarding supplies to keep prices elevated to take advantage of the supply chain disruption. is there any evidence for that underlying assumption? emily: if there is any evidence we have yet to see secretary raimondo or the white house come lord with it that the -- that companies are hoarding any materials that are needed.
i think this is the white house trying to figure out ways to approach what really is a global problem. we know that these shortages are because of what the -- what is happening with the delta variant in parts of southeast asia. the white house is trying to figure out what, if any role they could play to make sure shortages of items like cars, laptops, to see if they could alleviate that. this is one of the mechanisms they are looking at. using this cold war style defense and to get this information. lisa: is this related to a three point $5 trillion price tag on long-term economic spending should mark the biden administration once inflationary pressure to abate so that republicans cannot use that as fuel against his economic agenda. emily: i think if you spoke to the white house they would say they don't want to and that is
something that they want regardless of that big piece of legislation but there's no question that the higher inflation goes, the more the average american feels like prices are increasing and supply shortages. the more they will be cautious about the idea that the government is going to spend trillions of dollars on the social spending programs. it is something republicans have repeatedly attacked democrats on and something that democrats like senator joe manchin are very concerned about. if you look at those within the democratic party who are very much saying we need to wait a minute on this bill, we need to take some time, we are not sure about this price tag. one of the reasons they give is inflation. in that case it's tied together. jonathan: emily, thank you. the federal reserve is not concerned about inflation looking at their forecast. 2.3% 22, 23, 2 point 2%.
that's pretty constructive. lisa: how accurate have they been over the year? jonathan: not this year, lisa: they have not been active -- accurate any year. it's 60% of the time if you look at the major banks which looks at the question of gasenomics. jonathan: china is overseeing evergrande's accounts to ensure the housing gets built. the housing regulator has stepped up oversight of the bank accounts to ensure that funds are used for complete housing projects, limiting the developer's ability to pay creditors. this comes on a day were we still don't know what's gonna happen with that outstanding interest payment on that dollar bond. lisa: china is trying to contain potential fallout, socially and
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♪ jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, given everything we've discussed, the potential for rate hikes next year, china in the next, equity markets positive coming into friday and kitty nine -- equity futures are negative. the nasdaq down one half of 1%. that's the equity market pitch. here is the point of tension. talk about ever grand, basically trading with the volatility of a penny stock, down by 11.6 percent, still waiting to hear what happens with the $85.3 million interest payment on dollar bonds that are getting about $.33 on the dollar. a little bit of detail that the regulators, officials in china, focused on the housing that has not been built, making sure that
funds ever graham has is used you build those houses. at the epicenter of that is something tom keene has talked about, the social threat, the social fall out of all of this that underpins the decision-making. lisa: hundreds of thousands of people put down payments on homes that have yet to be built. what does that do socially? not happy. containment is a big one. jonathan: does that interest payment take a backseat to the concerns? overwhelmingly yes. the concern for china, capital flight. is it a surprise they are talking about making any kind of bitcoin crypto transaction illegal? open ended. lisa: so open ended. jonathan: bitcoin is down. two, tends, and 30's, your treasury yield curve has been all over the place. that used to say 1.40, 140.97 on
tends. yielding a field basis points on the 10. the story yesterday, yields absolutely soaring. lisa: definitely soaring, on the heels of not just the fed but the bank of england on ecb. i want to get to a question of how much could a chinese economic slowdown really affect the u.s. economy? if we are not talking about a lehman moment, we are talking about the removal of the dynamism of global growth from china. michael darden covers all of it. i want to start there. how much would a material slowdown affect the united states? >> it's a great question. we don't know offhand. it critically depends on how
much contagion there is and so if we listen to what chair powell said this week, the financial conditions, if they were to tighten drastically, that would essentially deliver the same kind of headwinds the fed started to tighten much more quickly than expected. so far, that hasn't really happened. viewers can watch a few different indicators to keep tabs on potential contagion. one is the performance of the high-yield market in the u.s. because it is sensitive to liquidity and growth shocks, so if china goes into a tailspin, it will likely destabilize global growth due to high-yield
markets spread. nothing there somarkets spread. nothing there so far, but that could change. so far, we don't really see contagion. there is also a lot of support for aggregate demand to continue running pretty hot in the u.s., even with these setbacks around the globe. it's a good point, but i think the high-yield market still confuses the signal, that there is a tremendous amount of liquidity in the system and that the u.s. business cycle probably keeps chugging along, even if ever grand does a hard face plant, which seems likely.
let's talk about the intersection of -- reg valliere publishing his note about the fiscal drama in d.c., the debt ceiling, infrastructure, and he says it will look so dysfunctional the federal reserve may have to wait until winter to begin tapering its asset purchases. do you agree? i don't agree. -- michael: i don't agree. powell was very clear, we've all but met the threshold for tapering, which is a substantial improvement in labor markets consistent with where we started the year. fiscal policy deliberations will continue to unfold. i think the fed is still on course to start the taper this november, unless we get some really shocking data, or a big financial market accident which so far has not occurred. those two things, i think rather
than the discussions going on in washington, would be the only potential smacks, but highly unlikely. we are on autopilot to see the fed again a taper in november that likely includes mid near next year -- midyear next year. that means they are still adding money to the system. the feds balance sheet will likely extend to $500,000 -- $500 million. that is pretty unusual with an economy rapidly closing in on full employment, if we look at the trends and what is happening to employment ratios and the unemployment rate. i don't think fiscal policy will be as disruptive a force as some seem to believe, but we will see, there is always next year. kailey: october 8 will be the next big one with the september jobs report.
i just want to see decent growth, doesn't have to be stellar. is it possible that what happens october 8 changes the equation for november, or is that set in stone? michael: highly unlikely. it would have to be a pretty dramatic miss relative to expectation. it is possible but not likely, so something like that or some very sudden financial market storm taking place. so far, we are not seeing that, even with all the pressure on evergrande and chinese markets. set in stone might be a tad strong, but pretty much all but in the bag. lisa: yesterday, danny blanchflower called the current field of economics just-o -- guess-onomics and says it is a
mistake to taper because the underlining thread -- the underlying trend in markets is weaker. do you agree? michael: i actually disagree with that. if we go back to the last cycle and we look at where the labor market is when the fed tapered, starting january 2014 and the end of 2013. the unemployment rate was considerably higher, 148 basis points. the prime age employment population ratio was lower by the same magnitude, a little bit more, actually. even if we look at this criteria, the fed is saying it wants to be more inclusive in terms of focusing on the labor market. african-american and hispanic unemployment rates, we are in much better shape now than we were back then when the fed started to taper, so the fed has already waited longer. even if we look at the super
core measures of inflation, we listen to the people in the temporary, transitory base effect camp who say do not worry about the high inflation now, if we look at the mean -- employment cost index, those are all running hotter. not massively, but i would say interiorly. they were when the fed started in the last cycle. so the fed already positioned itself behind the curve vis-a-vis the last cycle. relative to the labor market and the super core measures of inflation. i would have to disagree on that score. if anything, the fed will probably end up on the curb -- curve behind the curve. employment by midyear next year or the end of next year before we get off the zero bound. jonathan: it is so important.
mike darda of mkm partners, thank you. as the labor market tight or is there slack, you get two answers. lisa: they came in with an upside surprise which is negative and people don't even blink. they say the numbers are noisy. at what point are they not noisy and indicative of a labor market with greater weakness? jonathan: the fed will listen today, listening conference. you will hear from the vice chair clara data and we will be listening to see -- vice chair and we will see what they have to say. lisa: it will be interesting to see how much they view the display -- view the supply chain disruptions as something in their purview. it is lasting longer than people previously thought. how does the fed respond? jonathan: these issues persist.
kailey: it is not just about the supply chain and physical products, it is about labor. costco was not just talking about elevated freight costs, they were talking about labor issues. we heard something from fedex that it just costs so much money to get people in the job. with the fed focused on maximum employment, something they've got to consider. jonathan: who talks with me about premier league football? kailey: not i. lisa? lisa: it is a ball and it is a sphere. i played soccer in hospital -- in high school but i still call it soccer. jonathan: tk, where are you? kailey: he is hung over. jonathan: tom, where are you? futures down for tenths of 1% on the s&p, a little bit softer.
-- 4/10 of 1% on the s&p, a little bit softer. ritika: with the first word news, china's central bank says cryptocurrency related transactions are illegal, the strongest move against the industry. all cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are not fiat currency and cannot be separated on the market. all crypto related transactions, including services provided to domestic residences, are financial activities. india's long-delayed plans to overhaul its military is getting new life. the government is integrating its army, air force, and navy, the biggest reorganization since it independence. the move comes as india and allies strengthen defense cooperation against china. the final television debate of the german election, the spd
leaders narrowing. it was the last big opportunity for candidates to make their cases. the ceo of agricultural giant cargo says soaring food prices will prove transitory and should this up eight in time. david mclennan told bloomberg, supply was being disrupted by labor supports is -- labor shortages to the impacts of climate change. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
concern that we have our eye on. other variants seem to have higher transmissibility but we don't know if they will result in increased deaths or hospitalizations or consumption of resources. jonathan: good morning, alongside kailey leinz and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. coming into friday on positive territory. with all the china jitters, let's talk about the china jitters and get to bitcoin. bitcoin is down five percentage points. china coming out saying what is illegal. kailey: all crypto transactions. if someone can find me a firm definition, it would probably be helpful for this market. there is a question of the timing and this more firm crackdown from china is coming
simultaneously with massive questions about china, evergrande, it's quite it -- credit quality. jonathan: we need to discuss the context here. is there a broader concern about capital flight, and is that one small part? lisa: people are more isolated and they are trying to crack down an economy that is explosive. jonathan: we are down five, six points on bitcoin spt. a lot of confusion about boosters. andrew pekosz joins us now. i know it is difficult to answer, but do i need a booster and do i listen to the cdc or the fda? dr. pekosz: at the end of the day, we will go with the cdc guidance but came out last night
which is if you are over the age of 65 you are eligible, if you have an underlying medical condition and you are 18 and older you can get a booster, and if you are in an occupation that puts you at increased risk of coming in contact with individuals who might be covid-19 positive, for example hospital workers, long-term care facility workers. you are also eligible for a booster. it is a broad swath of the population that will be eligible for boosters lisa:. lisa:you are in this profession and you've been watching the debate that has caused people to resign within some regulatory agencies in the united states. have you ever seen such a public disagreement and a messy rollout of health policy in your tenure in the field? dr. pekosz: it's a difficult time right now. it is clear there is lots of data suggesting that boosters in the over 65 and those with
medical conditions predisposing to severe covid, boosters will help those individuals because it will boost their protection against severe disease. but data is suggesting that boosters will be worth the extra protection they will give, is not really there. it makes sense to protect our health care workers so logically speaking, it is something that we should really consider, but the data isn't there in terms of how useful these boosters will be. that is where the debate is. kailey: the fact that we are talking about boosters applies only to people who already wanted the vaccine, and there are still millions of people in the united states who remain unvaccinated. how damaging is this mixed messaging from people who they have been told to trust, for
people who don't want to get their shot? dr. pekosz: this is such an important point that was discussed in great detail at the cdc meeting yesterday. you don't want to send the message that essentially everybody needs a booster because that implies the vaccines aren't working. the vaccines are holding up fairly well, even with this onslaught of delta, a variant which is much more dangerous than any previous variant we have seen. the critical thing to get this pandemic under control, particularly in the u.s., but also globally, get unvaccinated people vaccinated. boosters have a role and we want to protect those vulnerable from disease, but this discussion of boosters is taking away from the critical point for controlling the pandemic, which is unvaccinated people. kailey: we know there are pockets of unvaccinated people and it has been quite
regionalized, includes a lot of the south, but we are starting to see cases decline. should we take solace in that? dr. pekosz: the infection has burned through a lot of populations. we are getting immunity but in the wrong way. we are getting immunity through infection, through hospitalization, through stress on the medical community, and we will now only start to see the effects of long covid, which we haven't discussed, because we've been focused on the acute cases. any individuals will suffer long-term consequences from their infections and we will deal with that over the next six to nine months or longer. it is such an important part of the discussion that has been not really the focus of things for the last two weeks. we need to pivot back to that goal. jonathan: just got a message from a bloomberg viewer -- he seemed -- i feel a little bit
lost with the ability to deliver the news uninterrupted. lisa: would you like me to interrupt? jonathan: nobody to talk about football with. north london on sunday. can you give us a prediction? dr. pekosz: go, gunners. jonathan: you think he can turn this one around? dr. pekosz: they've been keeping the ball out of their own net so that is critical. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: andrew pekosz, johns hopkins university. uninterrupted and live on bloomberg tv and radio, futures down 15 on the s&p 500. lisa, -- yields down a couple of basis points to one point 4063 on tens.
if the control room can scramble and bring up nike, down in the premarket. this supplies story off the back of these delta concerns, this is just ongoing. it is not going away and you see it reflected in the stock price of nike negative by five percentage points. bci g nailed this. this is how it has played out. it is not about demand, they just cannot meet it. here's another example of that story. lisa: singapore is returning to work from home and there are questions about issues of workers in vietnam. these issues are persisting, so what will make this change materially so soon to get the inventory back up and running, and how well this crimped growth? jonathan: from new york city good morning, your equity markets shaping up as follows.
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♪ >> markets are jittery about a slowdown in growth, jittery about the fiscal mess but could be coming our way. >> we still like equities, still overweight, but we will be more modest unless we get a pullback. >> dollar grinding back stronger story. >> as long as the public continues to put money into it, it will move higher. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: no interruptions or down points. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," uninterrupted and live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. tom keene taking a long weekend.