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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  September 26, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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haidi: good morning and welcome to "daybreak australia sophie: sophie:." we are counting down to asia's market shery: open. the top stories this hour -- germany sees a surprisingly tight election that is too close to call while the social democrats may have the edge, it could mean months of coalition talks. haidi: bitcoin exchange cuts
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back on new chinese users as beijing makes his most serious move yet to crack down on crypto. shery: and slamming the brakes on its shanghai starboard listing, saying there is no guarantee it will meet its financial obligations. this is the picture across wall street -- u.s. futures muted at the open as we saw the s&p 500 seeing another weekly advance. late gains on the friday session, treasury yields were higher on friday but at a slower pace. then nasdaq a drag on the china index, falling three consecutive weeks, lowest level in a month. oil seeing five weeks of gains and continuing to trend higher as we continue to see the global energy crunch, not to mention inventory data showing global on the shore crude supply stacked by 20 million barrels led by china, so perhaps supply
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concerns being felt across markets. take a look at bitcoin -- it was a wild ride over the weekend. under a little pressure after gaining ground in the previous session after losing ground for two consecutive sessions. the pboc saying all crypto transactions are illegal. financial institutions are not allowed and when you look at the long-term trend for bitcoin, we continue to see it as ascending. when it comes to the weekend news, one that stuck out was the cfo of huawei freight after reaching the deferred prosecution agreement to resolve criminal charges connected with american sanctions on iran. very consequential given that this issue has been a thorn in the site for u.s.-china relations for the past three years. it seems the u.s. now taking that first step in smoothing things over with beijing. haidi: an extraordinary element.
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we have been following this story for so long and you see on the screen that carefully calibrated, celebratory home come -- homecoming as she landed on chinese soil. take a listen to some of her remarks when she landed. >> after more than 1000 days of suffering, i finally returned to my home country. the long wait in a foreign country was very torturous. but when i step down the boarding steps and had my seat -- had my feet on the ground, the warmth of the homeland filled me with excitement beyond words. i am back. shery: another event that will cause some geopolitical waves around the world is the german election, given that we have had 16 years of chancellor angela merkel leading that centrist leadership. this german election and what it
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could mean going forward for europe's biggest economy, for europe and for the west is a key concern. we have heard president biden commenting at the white house just a few minutes ago saying the social democrats are a solid party. haidi: in fact, the social democrats, we are just getting these latest lines coming through, inching ahead of chance let merkel when it comes to her conservative party in what is a tight election at unprecedented levels, still yet to be decided who will be leading europe's biggest economy. shery: in a speech earlier, the social democratic candidate said it is clear the voters want him as chancellor. >> it is going to be a long election night, that is for sure. but it's also certain many citizens have voted for the spd because they want the name of the next chancellor to be olaf scholz. shery: the fragmented political
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landscape means there may be three parties needed to secure the parliament for the first time in decades. what does this election mean if it is too close to call? what are the steps the parties need to take? >> i think what is really important to notice is because it is too close to call, it means while the spd has the lead, it comes down to these crucial coalition talks that will take the next weeks and probably months to resolve. that really means that while he is ahead and the social democrats are out ahead, there is competition to the chancellery in terms of the conservatives and angela merkel's natural successor from her own party who will be negotiating with the smaller parties to see if they could wrangle a coalition with the liberals and greens ahead of the social democrats. it could be that while olaf
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scholz gains a slight lead, it does not necessarily mean he will be the chancellor at this point. he has a lot of tough coalition talks with the liberals especially who are averse to the higher taxes his party wants to implement. haidi: if this election has two kingmakers, which way do they seem to be leaning? >> when it comes to the first of the two kingmakers, the liberals, it seems like they are clearly more aligned with the conservatives, angela merkel's own party. but when it comes to the greens, they seem to have a natural alliance with the spd. they both want to make clear commitments to greater investment, especially on climate and infrastructure spending. they are also willing to raise taxes and are supportive of the 12 year -- 12 euro minimum wage. haidi: we will continue to
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monitor those election results as we get them. let's take a look at one of our other top stories -- the election car units of the ever ground group is scrapping its proposed shanghai starboard listening -- listing amid liquidity challenges from the parent company. let's get the latest from stephen in hong kong. taking a look at the story, what are they saying from the eb side of the business? stephen: we knew this was going to be a hard one to past, to get through, i should say for the starboard listening -- star board listing. we know about the liquidity crunch and debt burden. we illustrated last week that they reportedly and it looks like by all accounts missed the coupon payment of more than 83 .5 million u.s. dollars. they have a 30 day grace time
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before default. but this is having a spillover effect with the units and the new energy vehicle division, keep in mind back in february at the height of its valuation, it was valued more than ford and general motors. now it is down 93% and is scrapping this star board listing, saying due to careful consideration -- this was a statement from the unit. they said on friday there is no guarantee it can meet its financial obligations, saying the group is encountering a serious shortage of funds. the group has suspended some of its operations. keep in mind the group has another dollar bond coupon payment due on top of the 83 point $5 million and another $45
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million due on wednesday. shery: this is the story that keeps on giving. for now, let's turn to the investments cracking down on currencies. su keenan enjoys us with the latest. su; chinese authorities have been talking tough four months but there was a missive -- it was nine regulatory agencies that set all crypto-related transactions will be considered illicit activity and specifically called out offshore exchanges targeting chinese users, banning them from hiring locally from roles. we are seeing to of the world's biggest crypto exchanges halt new registration for chinese users. one is going to retire current
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accounts in the months to come and a spokesman saying it does not have exchange operations in china but does block chinese ip's. let's go to the way crypto's are changing. there has been a bounceback, some green back on the screen. that is how crypto tends to trade. bitcoin, which we have in the bloomberg, it has been one wild ride and this appears to be another roadblock for the currency. bitcoin has rebounded better than 1.5%, back above 43,000. ethereum up more than 5.5%. it will be interesting to see how this latest chapter plays out. many bitcoin and crypto observers saying this is far more serious than prior missives from china. shery: su keenan here in new
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york and we will watch this crypto related assets at the open. let's turn to sophie for what to watch. sophie: futures pointing to a soft start after we saw asian stocks with a two-week drop and saw a rally in japan. we saw the hang seng getting dragged lower by properties and switching out right now, let's look at what is going on with chinese materials stocks. they were a drag on friday amid growing reserves -- concerns of an energy crunch on the mainland affecting various industries. as they are pushed to meet admission goals. i want to highlight this from tomorrow -- cautioning another major supply-side shock may have been underestimated or missed and warns global markets may soon feel the shortage. the bank is warning of china's
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economy contracting this quarter. pulling up the terminal once more, the pboc expected to come through with more support and easing as central banks are turning more hawkish. amid that backdrop, with yield differential expected to widen further in japan, that adds to weakness for the end of this year. we have pci do from japan and reports from local media saying we may see that list it in japan this month. haidi: one of the things we are watching out for as we get trading underway. let's get over to vonnie quinn for the first word headlines. vonnie: canada's foreign minister says the country's eyes are wide open when it comes to normalizing relations with china. this following the release of
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two imprisoned canadians and while way executive. she's been more than 1000 days in solitary confinement. that was in contrast to the hero's welcome three years after her arrest in canada on a u.s. warrant. taiwan's main friendly opposition group has elected a new chairman. he took about 46% of the vote. the leadership contest there. this is his second stint in the role which he held for a one year in 2016 when he lost the presidential election. chinese state media says xi jinping congratulated him on his reelection. the influential sister of kim jong-un has reached out to the south. in a statement, she said there was a small mutual desire to recover relations from a deadlock and achieve peace.
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she had earlier said the proposal was interesting and a good idea. pyongyang cut off communications with soul this year. the australian prime minister says states cannot keep borders close once agreed covid vaccination targets are reached. coronavirus cases are low and western australia has been reluctant to open into other areas. this will make change when 80% of people are fully inoculated. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, more on china's crypt though crackdown. the latest news will have a per found impact. coming up, the market outlook
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and we look at investor concerns. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: time for the week ahead -- with a number of events coming up in the next few days, u.s. secretary janet yellen and jerome powell visiting capitol hill to testify before to key congressional panel. other central banks take the stage. we will be hearing from the likes of christine lagarde and jay powell himself. moving onto wednesday, japan's ruling coalition will be choosing their new leader who will almost certainly going to become the new prime minister after much speculation.
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also the latest chinese pmi with an official gauge is expected to come in stronger. >> the ever grand prices extend into a new week with another $45 million payment due wednesday when offshore investors are still in limbo after several said they did not receive a coupon last tuesday. china has taken some moves to calm markets, include injecting $71 billion in short-term liquidity. the funds are used to complete projects but we still do not have a clear indication of just how far beijing is willing to go. haidi: the risks out of china continue to mount after regulators banned all crypto transactions stop mining in the country late last week -- two of the world's largest bitcoin exchanges are taking action, halting new chinese registrations and it's likely to
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dominate sentiment for the digital asset. here is what our earlier guests had to say. >> china has banned crypto eight or nine times now. >> now it is prohibiting its citizens which is going to have a dampening effect on the ability to use cryptocurrency for any sort of transaction. >> it's too stem capital flight out of the country. >> we have seen truly the resilience of the community around digital assets and the exchange volume has moved to other geographies. shery: suffice it to say it is a big week for markets which focuses on u.s. infrastructure and spending bill that may be voted on this week. house speaker nancy pelosi has pledged to pass a $550 billion bill in the next few days and says she will put the measure forward on monday. let's discuss the outlook --
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always great to have you with us. we started last week very risk off and then were risk on again and seems the markets have called down. the smart -- this chart showing we have not seen the s&p 500 closed over 5% off the peak since november. is this another buy the dip is alive and well narrative going into the new week? ava: the markets are fluctuating depending on how people are interpreting the data we get. we expect the fed to start tapering early in november. that is moving the market, but there are three questions when it comes to fed tapering. the first one is is the fed going to taper all the way down to zero? the second is are they going to take mortgages and treasuries? the other question, more
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importantly, the u.s. has been buying 70% of the u.s. debt and it has been 4,000,000,000,002 5 trillion over the last months. if the fed starts tapering, what is going to happen? that means interest rates will rise. shery: we saw treasury yields jumping thursday, what does it mean for valuations in the stock market? when will higher yields in the bond markets start affecting if u.s. stocks are worth getting into? eva: with everything going on in the world, the safest portion in terms of this geography is the u.s. with inflationary fears and interest rates creeping up, we have to be very careful.
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growth stocks in some areas, tech companies that are software related, not hardware, companies that are not very labor-intensive and are not affected by labor costs rising and do not depend on products due to the supply chain disruptions we are seeing. on the other hand, you have mainstream value companies such as computer manufacturers, car manufacturers and consumer discretionary companies and industrials are getting hurt because there sales are coming down because you can have the parts to develop the products you sell and at the same time, costs are rising because we have increased labor costs and increased cost of products they use to develop their product. i think it is going to be very mixed going forward until the
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end of the year. the s&p will be a mixed bag of equities. haidi: when it comes to china, you talk about these two ingredients -- when his trust of the market and the other is earnings. do either of those exists for the chinese markets right now? eva: we have been investing for a long time in china. we have modest positions. we have been becoming more conservative and eliminating our positions or decreasing them because we are concerned what is going on. there are two main factors here. one, the suppliers, the investors getting hurt and the other -- the superset of china's gdp. when that comes down and you
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reverse what happened with the infused debt and that forced the chinese economy to rise. you take that off and this will thing is reversing with a multiplier effect, which means the chinese economy is going to come down. the growth we were foreseeing is not there. not just ever grand, we have multiple events this year with bb, with gaming, and that is only one piece of the puzzle and we have the energy crisis shutting down factories. on the other side, just like in 2008, this sends a signal and investors me equity markets lost $3 trillion and adr this year.
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haidi: always great to have you with us. we do have some breaking news -- potentially nearing of the deal between a spac and the electric carmaker controlled by volvo and a chinese car owner. the deal which we were reporting on earlier in september could value the company at $20 billion in debt, a little lower than we had been expecting, but that could be finalized this week. we will continue to watch that story. when timor ahead. -- plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: taking a look at ahead -- taking a look at the dairy sector -- they were torn -- a
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vonnie: you're watching daybreak us really a. in germany, election exit polls show the social democrats edging ahead of angela merkel's conservatives. the spd was the front runner over the final weeks of the campaign. projections indicate the party will win 26% of the vote. the christian democrats are set to win 24.5%. both men say they aim to lead the country's next government. nancy pelosi has pledged to pass
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a $550 billion infrastructure bill this week. she says she will push the measure forward on monday. the senate has already passed the bill but mcgrath are invited on a separate bigger path to spending and tax measures. pelosi says that headline amount of that bill would be lowered. >> let me just say we are going to pass the bill this week. i promised we would bring the bill to the floor that is, according to the language those who wanted this to be brought to the floor tomorrow wrote into the rule. but i'm never bringing a bill to the floor that doesn't have the votes. vonnie: elon musk has addressed china's world internet conference, reassuring the country about his company's commitment to expand their. a promise was delivered from a xi jinping that the country
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would work to create a vibrant digital economy. china says it is aiming to double geothermal power generation by 2020 five compared to 20 levels. the national energy administration is targeting a further doubling of capacity in the 10 years after that as china faces an energy supply crunch with almost half its to pay three provinces missing target set by beijing. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm funny quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: the resolution to the diplomatic crisis between the u.s., china and canada. though while we -- the huawei executive flew home after releasing to prisoners to canada.
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the saga is finally over. where does this leave us? >> it's a great question. who are the winners from this? both beijing and washington have declared victory but the victories have come at at a norm is cost. the u.s. did get her to acknowledge to wrongdoing which is likely to ulster its broader racketeering case against huawei that it is pursuing. at the same time, it essentially gave into hostage diplomacy. china, on the others, has won her back but at a cost to its reputation. we have to ask, there have been the lien's of dollars in lost trade, families torn apart, and hundreds of hours of court proceedings that were essentially for not. a bitter victory. haidi: what are the implications
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for huawei going forward? >> let's remember that huawei has always insisted it's a private company not controlled by the chinese government and that it can be trusted. what this process has shown is huawei is an arm of the chinese government in all but name. beijing was willing to take to foreign citizens hostage in order to further the interest of the company and protect the company. going forward, what does that mean when huawei is trying to break into markets where it's trying to establish its reputation and credibility. haidi: you mentioned hostage diplomacy and we've seen republican lawmakers criticizing the biden administration for appeasing china. what does it mean for diplomatic relations going forward? >> on one hand, yes, it does remove a major stumbling block that was holding up further
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cooperation between the u.s. and china on everything from climate change to trade. so to a certain extent, dialogue will probably resume more freely. but, to imagine tensions have gone away, that things are going to go back to normal would be a bit of a stretch. haidi: our vancouver bureau chief there with what looks like the end of a three-year saga. in the meantime, the leaders of austria, india and japan gathering at the white house for the first meeting with the group. china has only itself to blame for pushing this group together to the front line of relations. i have to get your views on these developments when it comes to huawei. does the u.s. approach to this change the calculus at all when
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it comes to how major western powers or even major asian powers deal with beijing? >> i don't think so. it was difficult to see how this dispute was going to resolve itself other than the way that it has, with her acknowledgment of wrongdoing and release to china. what i think emerges clearly here is beijing's quite open use of hostage diplomacy is a way of managing its international affairs. can any foreign national in china feel confident about their own security from this point forward if china has a dispute with a foreign nationals government? i think this puts china into a very dangerous position. countries all around the world and companies all around the world doing business with china will have to review the safety of it. shery: does that mean the normal
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diplomatic china's, for example, for canberra, for the families or for us trillions being detained in china, if you didn't have that kind of leverage candidate did there's no diplomatic resolution to these cases. peter: normal diplomatic channels don't exist anymore. everything supports the interest of the communist party and that means to say the international rule of all, the idea of an independent legal system, dealing with people on the merits of their particular case simply does not apply. in the case of australia, our government has been unable to talk at a ministerial level with their chinese counterparts for some time. the position of the chinese ministry of foreign affairs, that is pointless. you're not able to get into a room to discuss where you have points of disagreement.
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the communist party in china is simply wanting to rewrite the rulebook and expecting every other country in the world is going to subordinate itself to its interest. i don't think that's going to be successful going forward. it's hard for any country to think it can do normal business with china and its interest is to be dealt with in a normal way. shery: groups like australia, japan, the u.s. and india, what rule can they that's what role can they play here? peter: i think it's significant for a number of reasons. it clearly has the support of the president of the united states and three prime ministers who will meet annually to drive it. number two, it base -- it bases itself on its core values, the international rule of law, democracy and all the things china has been attacking over the last few years. the meeting in washington, d.c.
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really sets out a series of plans in relation to climate, future technology, supply chains and infrastructure, which really seeks to counter china zone areas in terms of domination of science and technology and domination of indo-pacific infrastructure through its belt and road agreements. so to those reluctant to say it's about china, it is all about china. it's all about resenting a democratic alternative to the countries of the indo pacific that they can do things in a different way. shery: how successfully our western countries starting to build alliances to deter china's influence in the region? peter: they have been slow. i think this has taken some years for the democracies to realize they need to organize
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together to present a stronger front. but we are now getting on with that and i think a strong military alliance and democracies looking at a wider agenda of cooperation, these are two very positive developments which says to the indo pacific that there is an alternative, you don't have to subordinate yourself to the priorities of the chinese calmest party. haidi: australia has suffered for sticking its neck out at the start of the pandemic in suffering the wrath of beijing. does this give them a bit more muscle in terms of having a stronger alliance within the playground and, is it worth it, given the furor over the nuclear submarine deal with france? peter: there is clearly a repair job to do with us trillions relationship with france and i regret the way that played out. it could have been handled better. but what all this has done is
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create an opportunity for us really to lift the standard of its technology for nuclear propulsion for our submarines and that's a significant step forward to strengthening australia's position in the indo pacific. in the broad, i think this was necessary and will give china pause. it will make china calculate again how it can operate in terms of taking risks against countries like taiwan. and that is a good thing. if we get a strong sense of balance in the indo pacific. shery: peter jennings, good to have you on. his insight into diplomatic relations in the region. a big interview coming up -- we speak exclusively with the singapore minister for finance and we will discuss the path to reopening as the city state
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battles and other surging cases. that is at 10:30 a.m. sydney time. ♪ haidi: here in australia, the prime minister says they cannot keep borders close once key vaccination targets are reached. queens land, south australia in particular. but the prime ministers as this will need to change when 80% of people are fully inoculated. this comes as victoria reported 780 new local cases, adding to its highest daily figure since the beginning of this outbreak this weekend. we've seen numbers in new south wales holding steady at about 1000 for a while. we continue to keep an eye on the situation as we count down to the listing of more restrictions expected as vaccination levels get higher going into october. lots more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we wouldn't have a viable airplane industry if there wasn't airline safety. we wouldn't have the transportation system we do if we didn't regulate automobile safety. ultimately, for blockchain based
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payments, that industry is going to do better regulated in a sound way rather than trying to be some kind of libertarian paradise. shery: former u.s. secretary larry summers weighing in on cryptocurrency regulation. chinese officials have taken steps four months to crack down on cryptocurrencies but they have moved to erase any doubts about their intentions, saying crypto transactions in china are and and they will rule out the mining of digital assets. our next guest says the implications are profound. winston mott joins us now. it's always great to see you. -- winston
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against crypto in may, you have seen if you provinces taking action. this time last friday, we had this regulation come from 10 ministries forming an official regulation. going forward, this crackdown of crypto mining and trading has become national policy. in the history of china's crypto regulation, this is the most direct, most comprehensive regulation involving a large number of industries. shery: so why are they doing this right now? winston: three major reasons. one is about retail investor protection. china's retail contribution is a big percentage of crypto trading and many of them do not fully understand the complexity of crypto products and the related
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leverage in some of those derivatives products. the second part is about carbon neutrality. as we speak, there is a power shortage in china because of carbon neutrality and the commitments due to the shutdown of lots of coal-based plants. because of the power shortage, crypto mining based on clean energy is not doable. and thirdly, the lunch of china's sovereign currency. china soon will launch it sovereign digital currency and the government makes it clear only its sovereign currency is the legitimate currency in china. shery: how much of an mpeg-2 you see this having globally? could this prompt more harsh
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regulations and restrictions elsewhere? winston: i think it is possible. as i mentioned at the beginning, the implications would be profound because china use represent more than half of the global crypto mining, the so-called hash rate. china's retail market is a huge percentage of the global crypto trading. we will see implications in three main asset -- aspects -- more volatility in crypto trading as an china's retail investors try to figure out how to deal with their existing positions. secondly, it's about the global bitcoin mining network. now the message is very clear -- the chinese mining players must go abroad. so in the exodus, the global
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bitcoin network will experience more volatility as well. thirdly, i believe china's actions, crypto regulation and sovereign currency will become a very important reference for many countries looking at crypto trading and sovereign currency development in their own country. haidi: what does this mean for the digital you on? -- digital you on -- digital yuan? winston: it is highly related. this action is echoing the soon to be launched digital currency of the country. back in july, the central bank of china issued a white paper which seemed to be a huge milestone indicating they have done successfully with the retail market and are going
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forward, they're going to test of -- tested in more complex situations. it seems like china is on schedule to formally launch it next year at the 2022 winter olympics, so it is related. shery: always great having your insights. nyu adjunct professor and author of "the digital war." we have punny more ahead. -- plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: let's get you a latest check on the is is flash headlines. the tesla factory is expected to produce free hundred thousand cars in the first nine months of the year. a delivery russia the end of the third quarter despite the chip shortage. the shanghai market makes the model why suv for markets like germany and japan. unicorn engine ban has raised 970 million dollars from investors including alibaba. the funding run will push the valuation ahead of a billion dollars. they plan to use the funds for infrastructure and technology. investors have been betting on
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logistics companies during the boom from the pandemic. estate railway operator set up a company to monetize its most valuable land assets. prime real estate will be transferred from an asset management unit which the government says could deliver eight team billion dollars in additional revenue over the next 30 years. the state railway of thailand had a combined operating loss of nearly a billion dollars in the three years before the pandemic. shery: youtube making its first comments after removing materials from -- the internet giant still sees free speech as a core value. >> one of the things that is important to us at youtube is the fact we do enable so many voices and we do enable people to express themselves and celebrate freedom of speech.
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that is a core value of hours, but when we work with governments, there are many things we have to take into consideration, whether it is local laws or what's happening on the ground. so there are always going to be multiple considerations we have to take into consideration. >> never said youtube delete it one of his videos. was that at the request of the russian government? >> we certainly get requests from governments and we consider why are we getting the request, what is happening on the ground, and based on a whole bunch of different factors, we make a decision. those are not always requests that make sense for us to honor, but in certain cases, we will honor them in that country. emily: well google ever leave russia like you left china? >> we want to survey audiences
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as much as we possibly can. if it comes to a point where there's an issue with the government, we will do our best to work that out. if it turns out we can't -- but i'm hopeful we will continue to work out what we can. emily: we've seen mark zuckerberg and jack dorsey testify before congress multiple times. i've heard it said youtube is getting a pass. do you think you should be up there testifying? >> i think we do get a lot of scrutiny. because youtube is part of google, there have been many different questions answered on youtube, so i do believe there is a certain amount of scrutiny. if i were ever asked to testify, i would go and testify as well. emily: how often are you meeting with lawmakers or have you met with lawmakers personally? >> we meet with lawmakers across the globe. there's a lot of regulation in all countries around technology
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and we want to make sure they hear our point of view. we understand this is an important area that deserves a lot of scrutiny but we want to make sure we are having conversations about what is the best way to make that happen. what i do worry about our unintended consequences. there may be regulation that is well intended but has a negative impact on our ability to innovate, our ability to create jobs, and valuable services and content and that is what i worry about. emily: what would you propose? mark zuckerberg says he welcomes regulation. >> i recognize there will be regulation because of the size and significance, but in a number of different cases, there are laws that are proposed and they would have a lot of unintended consequences. in those cases, we for -- we
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have worked hard to communicate what those unintended consequences are to make sure we preserve the good part but remove what is problematic. haidi: "daybreak asia" is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: hello and welcome to "daybreak asia." sophie: we are counting down to asia's major market open. shery: and good evening from new york. our top stories, germany's election is too close to call. social democrats inching ahead but coalition talks could take months. ever grant's electric car unit


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