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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  September 28, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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minister boris johnson to call a general election as early as next year. strategist believe the prime minister may go to the polls for voters feel the impact of higher taxes. senior advisors have told a labour party leader they should be ready for a snap election next spring. european nation dominate the top of bloomberg posco been resilience ranking for a third month. ireland is at the top of the survey while the previous number one, there -- norway, l2 the number 10 spot. ireland has been moving up since the start of 2021 when it had the worst outbreak in the world. meanwhile, the delta variant has left the united states reeling. it felt three response this month to number 28. independent investigators mandated by data health organization to probe allegations of sexual abuse by its staff in the democratic republic of the congo have cited in their words structural failures and individual
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negligence in a new report. the abuses were committed by local personnel as well as by teams in the country to fight the oval outbreak from 2018 to 2020. brent oil has broken through the $80 a barrel barrier. the benchmark rose for the six day in a row to the highest since october 2018. there are signs that demand is running ahead of supply and there has been a flurry of bullish action from traders. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
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>> it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 7:00 p.m. in berlin, and 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg and from around the world. stocks deeply in the red as yields surge. investors digest just a steady menu of news from consumer confidence following, home prices surging, and nervousness about what is coming out of d.c. janet yellen sends a warning to congress the fed gets ready to unwind its stimulus, and elizabeth warren says she will not support powell for a second term as the head of the central bank. let's show you what is happening in the markets. the s&p off by over two percentage points. all the individual sectors are in the red with the exception of energy. the damage that has been done,
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the nasdaq 100 up by three full percentage points. if you have higher yields, that long-duration trade will be taken to the woodshed. you can also see it in the likes of the semi index, off by almost 4%. the blame you could argue would be right here with the u.s. 10-year. yields moving higher by three basis points. all of that wrapped into the debt ceiling, as well as higher inflation and signs the consumer is rolling over just a touch. in the middle of this, we have to digest what is happening in the auction market. a seven-year auction coming out right now. let's bring in ritika gupta with more. >> $62 billion worth of that seven-year treasury coming onto the supply. drawing in a yield of 1.332%,
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compared to the pre-sale of 1.324%. a higher yield, so it is tailing softer demand. we wanted to see if it would see some dip buying, like we saw with a five-year, but not so. another demand indicator, so softer than the average of 2.31. the previous auction was 2.34. deal allocation coming in at 19%. indirect bidders coming in at 60.1%. that is versus the average of 58.9%. we are seeing the average over the past six options have been 1.227%. his has been one of the cheapest auctions since 2020. maybe some momentum for dip
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buying but we do not seem to have gotten. we are not getting what we saw in the five-year yesterday. demand a bit softer. generally you see higher concessions and you get with a five-year. the treasury selloff continue today even across the curve. the 10-year, 1.25%. the 30-year, 2% as well. your main treasury auctions done for this week. alix: i appreciate that. speaking of rates, there is a real movement right now tied to u.s. secretary janet yellen's comments on today's hearing regarding the debt ceiling. >> it is imperative congress address the debt limit. if not, our current estimate is that the treasury will likely exhaust its extraordinary measures by october 18.
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america would default for the first time in history. the full faith and credit of the united states would be impaired and our country would likely face a financial crisis and economic recession as a result. alix: usually these things get solved. however, you are starting to see a market reaction. this is due october 19, the day after janet yellen highlighted the debt ceiling. yields pop higher once the deadline was made by three basis points. you could argue that it could get worse, but there is stress coming through the markets. i want to break it down with mickey leavy of berenberg capital markets. and michael mckee, economics and policy correspondent. the stress in the market with the debt ceiling, how serious are you taking this right now? mickey: typically, i don't take
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the debt ceiling seriously, it is usually about theatrics and at the last moment congress comes up with a resolution. i put a very low probability on the treasury not servicing the debt. however, this time, because the budget process is so dysfunctional in so many ways, different factions of congress are trying to attach to the debt ceiling bill different legislation that is now pending in the house and senate, it is a complete mess. we should not discount smooth sailing. i think they will eventually come up with something that really reflects just how dysfunctional congress is, and that is a warning in and of itself. mike: the last time we saw that, 2011, when the s&p gave the usa downgrade for its political function, not because they thought the u.s. would default.
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the biggest question is, how do democrats proceed now? we may find out this afternoon but republicans are demanding they separate the bill that would fund the government from the debt ceiling, and put the debt ceiling into the reconciliation bill. procedurally, that would take some weeks, which is mine janet yellen came up with that date today to give democrats a good idea of how fast they have to move on this. this could lead to things like the votearama, and republicans could really slow down the process and take us to the brink. but i agree with mickey, you cannot believe that anybody would drive that car over the cliff. alix: the other piece of news that stood out from the testimony was senator elizabeth warren making some strong statements against fed chair jay powell. >> your record gives me great concern.
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over and over you have acted to make our banking system less safe, and that makes you a dangerous man to head up the fed, and that is why i will oppose your renomination. alix: mike mckee, what was different about elizabeth warren this time? mike: she has made it clear she would prefer somebody else, the first time she said she would vote against him. the question is how much power she brings to the table with that direct. we have been told janet has endorsed jay powell for another term, so where does joe biden go, with his treasury secretary or elizabeth warren? how many people can elizabeth warren bring along? we don't know what sherrod brown, the chairman of the committee, thanks. if he were to join with senator warren, that would be a tough time for powell, but if he stays
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neutral or offers of support, they could pick up republican votes for powell. he is a republican and is well-liked on that side of the aisle. he could be confirmed easily, but we will see what kind of influence elizabeth warren has. alix: is this a market event? mickey: the markets do not like change. here, the divisiveness about jay powell is not about monetary policy but regulatory policy, and as to the regulations of big banks, i would note elizabeth warren is a prominent member of the senate taking committee which would hold confirmation hearings of anybody that president biden nominates. the broader issue with everything going on here at the fed, concerns about the fed, inflation, everything else, is the fed's independence.
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is this a way for the congress to start exerting different types of pressure on the fed and really jeopardize the fed's independence? that is a broader issue and exceedingly important. markets do not like uncertainty. they do like an independent fed that is making wise decisions. alix: thanks a lot. we have to leave it there. michael mckee and mickey levy. coming up, forward is making its big -- ford is making its biggest investment into ev and the company's history. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: this is bloomberg markets. i'm alix steel. time for stock of the hour. ford laying out plans to build up their capacity for ev batteries. they discuss the strategy to build out the electric car production. >> these plants will allow us to produce one million vehicles worth of batteries per year that is the scale and we are talking about. we needed a new site because we could not slow down with reading mediation with the brownfield site. alix: dave wilson has more of the details. this is a lot of money being poured in. dave: $11.4 billion total. when mr. farley talks about the battery plants, we should note there are three of them going in. one will be in tennessee, along
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with an assembly plant for electric vehicles. the other two will be in kentucky. you are talking about a total outlay of $11.4 billion. mr. farley was at the site in tennessee northeast of memphis. the kentucky site is going in south of louisville. kentucky already has ford vehicle facilities. 2025 is when they will begin production out of these plants, at least that is what they are aiming for. ford had only been looking at two battery plants, but they have gone to three. it shows you how much of a commitment they have the ev business. there you see the breakdown. $7 billion for ford. $4 million for their battery partner.
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you are talking about ford's biggest investment ever across its businesses. alix: in the second quarter, they had negative free cash flow. in the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2020, they still had sequentially less cash flow. dave: we have to remember you're free cash flow is after your capital spending. this money that they committed on electric vehicles through 2025, that comes out before you get to the numbers you are talking about. even in free cash flow, you have analyst looking at $30 billion total over the next five years. there is plenty of cushion when it comes to being able to afford to invest in the way they are doing, and the fact that general motors and volkswagen are doing, it is a competitive issue with this kind of spending.
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alix: thanks a lot. dave wilson joining us. the opec secretary-general speaking about the future of oil demand as brent oil touches $85 a barrel. we are off on that level now but questions about what opec should do if we have consistently higher prices. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: this is bloomberg markets. i'm alix steel. a sizable move in cotton prices. cotton futures reached past one dollar a pound for the first time in a decade. classic supply-demand. adverse weather and shipping bottlenecks driving up the cost all around the world, but the price is the highest since
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november 2011. question is, do we see a supply response? do producers produce more? no where can we see that more in question then when it comes to the oil market. brent hitting a three-year high, $80 a barrel, but unable to withstand that pressure. opec today says they see demand growing until the middle of next decade and global fuel consumption will recover by 2023. what does supply do? the opec secretary-general mohammad sanusi barkindo spoke about that. >> we are past the peak, if you like, in your words. the recovery will continue, maybe slow. it may be bumpy. but we are on the path of a positive trajectory. >> you say we will not need as
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much oil from opec as we did in 2019 on till 2026. is it correct to assume that between now and 2026 you will need to have restraints and cuts? >> the world oil outlook, which we just unveiled today, is the first outlook produced by any reputable institution. we are positive in this outlook in terms of demand. demand will continue to grow to 2025. this world will remain thirsty for the consumption of energy. we are projecting 28% growth in
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energy between now and 2045. the world population is going to grow by about 20%, nearly 1.7 billion people will come into this world. we also predicted that the global economy will more than double between now and 2045. we believe going into cop26, energy poverty will be brought back on the front banner with climate. therefore, the world will double its efforts in achieving the sdg7 with united nations, resolved several years ago. alix: that was the opec secretary-general. let's get back to the equity selloff. yields continue to push higher.
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katie greifeld is with us. in your estimation, what is leading the selloff? >> it all comes back to the bond market. that is the story today when you look at what is happening with tech. clearly bearing the brunt of the equity market selloff. what is interesting about the bond market, you saw this curve flattening move, the belly of the curve was selling off. 5-year yields leading the push higher as people priced in, recalibrated their fed expectations. if you look at the 10-year, 30-year sector, that is selling off. that suggests that traders are recalibrating their growth expectations. real rates have shot higher since the fed meeting last week. alix: is that why all sectors other than energy are in the red? it felt like we were in the middle of a rotation. in two financials, out of tech,
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to make matters simple, but today is across the board. katie: yesterday, it made sense. yields selloff, you go into the cyclical sectors, banks do well. today it feels like selling is beginning selling. you are in a feedback loop of sorts. some say that this reaction is an overreaction, especially on the growth side. starting to turn into a little bit of an overreaction on the value side as well, which had been doing prior earlier to today. alix: look at the technicals. we are a kiss away from the 100-day moving average. what kind of selling do we get if we break below that level? katie: i've been looking at tlt,
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tracking treasuries matured 20 years or longer. it is slicing through all of its averages. what is interesting is if you look at the rsi, it is not there yet. it is not in oversold territory, so we will see. do we have to get down there before we see it bounce? we not seeing it in bonds right now. alix: are retail investors, options guys telling you anything right now? katie: the defying army that was out there seems to have retraced a bit. if you look at the options market, there is some interesting data out from sundial capital which found, if you look at what small traders are buying, individual investors, just 43% of their total volume was spent on options last week. when you go back to february, that number was as high as 55%,
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so you are seeing sort of a retreat there. confidence has been rattled all the way from institutions down to the smallest traders down there. alix: without them, what winds up happening? thanks a lot, katie greifeld. you can see we are down by 1.7% on the s&p. holding onto that 100-day moving average, but bonds are holding onto their strength. bear steepening takes hold on this tuesday. the 30-year up by seven basis points. we will break things down more after this. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. general mark milley, head of the u.s. joint chiefs of staff said
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two calls to his chinese counterparts in the final weeks before the trump administration were a normal part of his job and were coordinated with the acting secretary of defense and with other top officials. >> the specific purpose of the october and january calls were generated by concerning intelligence which caused us to believe the chinese were worried about an attack on them by the united states. i know i am certain that president trump did not intend to attack the chinese, and it is my directed responsibility, and it was my directed responsibility by the secretary, to convey that intent to the chinese. alix: descriptions of those phone calls made were first aired an excerpt from the forthcoming book "peril" by washington post journalist bob woodward and robert costa. the u.k. has put their army on
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alert to deliver supplies to gas stations. it is the latest emergency measure in a crisis that has engulfed boris johnson government. apply chain disruptions have drained gas pumps, emptied some supermarket shelves, and disrupted businesses. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ amanda: i'm amanda lang. welcome to bloomberg markets. alix: i'm alix steel. we welcome our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. amanda, welcome back to the studio. you have prompter. this is a game changing moment.
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good to see you back in the studio. here are the top stories we are following from all around the world. stocks in the red as yields continue to search. investors digesting a study menu of news. home prices falling and nervousness around the fed and the debt limit. and amazon's hardware lodge is underway. we will discuss with david limp. and the latest on the energy crisis in europe, and the risk of a spillover. we will have insight from a fellow at rice university. amanda: we are seeing major downdrafts across the board. energy is a minor bright spot as we see the price of commodities march higher. at the bottom of the screen is a 10-year yield, 1.52. it is the pace of the increase that is gathering attention, not just the level.
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rotation out of some of the leaders in the markets, so some of the biggest moves are in those faang stocks, 3% moves with google today. amazon doing a little bit better than some as they announce new products today. over all, stagflation is something that is starting to creep back into the conversation as we look at commodity prices. one question is how long this risk off attitude lasts including as we hear about the debt ceiling limits creeping ever closer. let's dig deeper into the moves we have seen. ira jersey is with us now. great to have you with us. there are many moving parts here but what would you identify as key to what is driving the action today? ira: i think it's a continuation of the fear that the federal reserve will taper in november and then not hike for a long time, and that may drive inflation higher. when you look at today's price action, it looks to me like it
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is people getting out of risk and out of a lot of their trade where they thought the yield curve would get flatter. now they are thinking, we better get out of our risk, and that has had this steepening effect on the yield curve. alix: does that mean the markets are trying to price in a policy mistake from the fed? ira: i don't think a mistake but they are trying to price in this new framework the fed keeps talking about. jay powell spoke about it again this morning. the idea that they would taper soon but maybe hike even later and then wait until you get much better employment, not worry about inflation quite as much. remember, we spent the better part of the decade below 2% in terms of cpi inflation, so what is to stop the fed saying we will let it run hot for three or four years. do they want you to stay up about 3%?
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probably not. most indications suggest inflation will be in the more 2.5% range, so they may tell right that more than they would have under their old paradigm. amanda: as we know, the steep yield curve can be a sign of economic health. how steep is too steep for the fed, when do they start to think about the front and? ira: i don't think they will worry too much about that for at least another 50 100 basis points. at 120 basis points, that is not a crazy steed curled yet. around 200 is the level you get when the federal reserve begins to hike. i don't think that we will reach that level of this particular cycle. i think the market will keep pricing for the fed to hike to 1.75 or 2%. because of that, there is
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probably a limit to how high the 10 year can get this cycle. alix: you kind of her janet yellen that, that interest rates would stay low for a while. your description makes sense of why breakevens may move higher, but in europe, nominal yields are higher, real interest rates are going nowhere. breakevens are going nowhere either. what does that tell us? ira: in europe, they have a real worry about inflation. that is why you see some of the price action in europe be different from the u.s. in particular they are still following the u.s. the u.k. in particular, 1% 10-year gilts is not exactly high. even though it is higher than had been. mainland europe, you are still looking at negative yields all the way out to 10 years. the fact that they are -20 now is just emblematic of the fact
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that you have some people who don't necessarily want to be where they are. you have heard hawkish statement from the bank of england and the european central bank. maybe at some point we will hike. the market is even pricing for a whopping 10 basis points, but nonetheless, pricing for that over the next year" or so. amanda: for the u.s. market, where does the debt ceiling crisis factor in? it does feel like the congress that cried wolf, but at some point it is a crisis. ira: not in the long end of the curve which we were just talking about. risk off will keep yields lower. i think we could see more of a selloff if we get the debt ceiling. in the teedo market, you definitely see it. every t-bill that winds up in the crosshairs continues to trade cheap. sometimes at two or three times the yield of longer-term t-bills. normally you have a nice upward sloping yield curve.
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now you have this big kink and that is because of the debt ceiling. today, when janet yellen a letter to congress saying october 18 is the date, you saw the october 19 and 20 t-bills gap wider in terms of their yields. we have to talk about your background at some point. ira: all soccer scarves. ira jersey, good to see you. alix: for what it's worth, i want to check on the u.s. data we got today. home prices surged almost 20% in july, once again posting the biggest jump in more than 30 years. demand destruction is already there. the cure for higher prices is high prices, but we are still seeing them as those high prices push out new buyers, then they go to the rental market, and it continues. we also have the consumer confidence drop in september,
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raising the question of the pressure that consumers in the u.s. will be under. amanda: we have seen a little bit of wearing for that consumer, which is a dangerous signal. on the housing front, affordability is the key question. we should also remember, for everyone in the home, the walt affect is fairly serious. the majority of people are in homes already, so it's an interesting trade-off on affordability versus people feeling better off on paper. alix: it gets a little complicated. coming up, we have amazon's hardware launch. we will be speaking to david limp, amazon's senior vice president of devices and services. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i'm amanda lang. he want to take a quick check on tech stocks. we are still seeing a selloff in equities, responding in part two that jump in yields on the 10 year. and nasdaq 100, amazon down 2.8%. apple is faring better than some. google at last check was done more than 3%. it is one of those days that you see big men to moves. alix: not only higher yields but the supply praying -- chain pressures. if you have issues and certain plants in china having to conserve power, that will have a feedthrough effect. probably why you are seeing semis down today. amanda: we will watch micron and see what it has to say.
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a lot to be said about amazon today, it's hardware launch event is underway. emily chang is standing by with a key voice from that event. >> we are here with david limp, vice president of devices and services after unveiling a slew of products and services. great to have you on the show. i want to start with the echo, wall mounted, which you see as a family home where you can share calendars, can double as a kitchen television. how do you imagine this changing the family dynamic of future? dave: as a parent, i have lived through the life of trying to juggle three kids, shuffling them around to various soccer games. our kitchen was a montage of sticky notes, things on the refrigerator. technology can help solve that. this idea of ambient
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intelligence, something hanging on your wall cannot only entertain you through television but can help you get more organized by a common family calendar, to-do notes, done in a 21st-century way. emily: the biggest talk or has to be the astro robot. sort of a step beyond alexa on wheels. we have seen robots like this in china. i'm curious what the data tells you about whether consumers want something like this, and whether you see this becoming a mass-market consumer device? dave: as you said, astro is our new robot we launched today. it is this idea that we can do more, if we can bring technology to you in an ambient way to write your house. it is mobile, can travel through your house. i have had it on off and on for a year now. the security case resonates
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highly with me. you don't necessarily want cameras all over your house. this can control that when you are away. also peace of mind. giving this to my father who is 85, i love him, he is very mobile, but giving me ideas and reminders that he is up and about, being able to communicate with him with alexa, him to have the ability to call, if anything might go awry. emily: does the price come down below $1000? do you add arms to this device, does it go up and down stairs eventually? dave: with the technology we have today, a single floor robot at this price point, it was hard to invent. it was not easy. there is a lot more power inside this there your high-end smart phone. it is full of ai technology, has wheels, motors, safety systems.
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long-term, if you look at a five or 10-year horizon, we will see more. whether we can go up and down stairs, i'm not sure, but the pace around robotics is exonerating, not decelerating. emily: how do you know whether all of this technology in our homes is good for us or whether it is encouraging and overreliance on devices and not enough using our own brains? dave: and an optimist first of all, but that is kind of what we see. we share that view, in that technology should not always be front and center. i often go home and all of my kids are in corners of the house staring at their phones. i would rather have their heads up enjoy what is going on around us. what we are trying to invent with this idea of ambient intelligence, we are using
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technology but we want it to fade into the background. it doesn't have to be front and center. like our original device, the kindle, you just get lost in the author's words. when it is working, you will know it. customers, your family, you can be enjoying music together, a movie, communicating with a new product like amazon glow. when you are not using the technology, it fades away, and you don't need to worry about it. emily: you did talk about privacy a number of times but there seems to be this broad distrust of big tech in general right now, data collection over all. amazon is facing a number of complaints about how much information alexa is collecting about them. how do you earn that trust while rolling these devices out simultaneously? dave: you said it well, we have to earn the trust of our
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customers every day. it is not something you put in the bank and hold. we always have to be earning trust. to do that with these products -- also true of phones and consumer electronics in general -- we believe you have to make privacy and security foundational in these products. it is at the core of everything we do. the form it takes for our customers, let them be able to delete when they bought, let them automatically delete at 90 days, 100 80 days, if they so choose. if we have cameras in the home, let's put shutters in front of the camera so that when they are closed, the customer can have peace of mind. the list goes on and on. we have to constantly be inventing new ways to earn that trust. that is by making sure privacy is front and center. emily: david limp, amazon vice president of devices and services. thank you for joining us from
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the kitchen of the future. amanda, back to you. amanda: thank you for that, emily chang, along with amazon the senior vice president of devices and services, david limp. comments the debt ceiling. jamie dimon telling reuters he does believe that the crisis will be avoided but that jp morgan is preparing for a default. he says it would be catastrophic if there was a failure to address that limit. coming up, we are talking about the energy crisis in europe. it is cause for great concern. anna mikulska, energy studies fellow from rice university, is with us next.
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alix: this is bloomberg markets. i'm alix steel. brent oil falling from that
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three-year high of $80 a barrel, unable to withstand that pressure of u.s. equities heading for their biggest decline since may. let's get some insight from anna mikulska, energy studies fellow from the rice university. are we seeing demand destruction or opec response? anna: we have seen a resurgence of economies around the world and there is a good chance many countries can still pick up a relatively high price. depending on which economy is able to take more oil, we will see it winning the oil wars. not sure about the demand destruction. at some point, since we are still not out of the pandemic, and that is what complicates all of the above.
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amanda: when it comes to natural gas, there are real complexities, especially in europe. russia stands to hold a lot of powerful cards in the natural gas game. what is going on in terms of its pipeline to germany, natural gas supplies in europe right now? anna: when it comes to europe and natural gas, it is the perfect storm. we have seen demand soaring internationally and in europe post-covid. additional supply that would otherwise come from lng -- enough coming. that is what is missing from the continent, not only to be able to see its supply now but through the winter. that was not restored to the same level as usual through the summer. alix: the crisis we are seeing
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in power and gas in europe and the u.k., what is the potential for that to take place here in the u.s., elsewhere like latin america, asia? anna: the u.s. is in a very different situation from asia or europe. natural gas is produced there, so the prices are also different. they are higher when the demand internationally was not as high, but as we move into the winter, the u.s., as everyone else, is trying to replenish storage, preparing for the winter. depending on the winter, we will see if prices will be soaring in the u.s. and internationally. we see high prices in europe and asia, higher prices here. this will probably continue since it is not an easy fix. we cannot just activate right
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away additional supply. also when you think about the u.s., it is not perfectly interconnected internally. so there are pockets of natural gas that are not able to go through to another part of the country. we will end up with shortages there. alix: so good to have your thoughts on this. amanda: anna mikulska, rice university baker institute of public policy. we are watching markets as we go. they continue to trade lower. we will watch the final 30 minutes of trade and see if you see a turn for the better. for alix steel, i'm amanda lang. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. senate republicans have blocked a bill that would suspend the
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debt ceiling until december of 2022. it would also have the government operating past the end of the fiscal year later this week. that increases pressure on democrats to find a way against the debt ceiling and avert a default. it could take nearly two weeks. a chance to reshape the federal reserve after two regional chiefs quit. the presidents of the fed branches in boston and dallas, rosengren and robert kaplan, have announced they are retiring. that is after questions arose about their trading activities last year. female students will not be returning to kabul university. the militant group has said women will not be allowed to work and study within the bounds of


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