tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg September 29, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT
♪ >> effect at the market is selling often face of this -- the fact that the market is selling off in the face of this kind of political crisis, i think you're getting the wrong message. >> d concern is whether yields are moving too far, too fast. >> if inflation does get too high, i think the fed has to respond. >> the fed cannot, and in my opinion will not, respond to supply-side inflationary shocks. >> supply chain disruptions are creating some inflation pressures. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.
markets lift. crisis over. we welcome all of you on radio and television. some careful analysis here. we are going to go through this quickly this morning because our guest coming up is the bull on wall street. jay pelosky with us in moments. we've got a jay pelosky market this morning. jonathan: we've got a bounce back, up 24, on the s&p. we've got a bond move to talk about. there are levels, and then there is rate of change. the level of one point 50% on the 10 year, we can live with 1.50%. but the rate of change, up 20 points in a week, that is worth looking at. tom: let's look at sterling as a proxy for dxy $94. jonathan: a breakdown south of one dollar 30 five cents. what is noteworthy about this, we had a hawkish tilt from the
bank of england last thursday, and it hasn't anchored sterling. pure dollar strength with a lot of sterling we this out there. that's got to be the story for me. dollar index is still strong. everything else turned around. the dollar is still stronger. tom: i'm sorry, lisa. the story in washington, is chaos too strong a word? lisa: if you look at markets, because they don't care. the dollar strength certainly doesn't go with this, and there isn't a fear of some sort of mass disruption from a default. that said, it does continue, and i think the bigger risk is what if we don't get the physical spending that people are pricing in -- the fiscal spending that people are pricing in. tom: jon, get out the calendar. tomorrow is the end of the quarter. as you mentioned, october 13 is when we actually find out will corporations survive. jonathan: lisa and i have been
on and on about that, and you have talked about growth. will the growth story outweigh the story that may happen with margins? i keep passing on that question. supply is the issue. we have been mincing money throughout the year, but does supply start to weigh on demand, on consumption? tom: oil off the $80. supply will come on. what do you see? jonathan: crude back down below $75, down 0.7%. i see yields come in after yields exploded higher over the last week, down three basis points to 1.5028%. i still got to get my head around the bond market move of the last week that people are still trying to explain. that move is so many things to so many people that we don't have this clean story going into q4 yet for that bond market. tom: such interest here in the bull versus bear case.
with a longer view and an intelligent view is jay pelosky, a dpw advisor with decades -- a tpw advisor with decades of experience. we talked to labeler earlier -- to laidler earlier, we talked to pelosky today, and sometime we will get up to dow 38,000. how do we do it? jay: thank you for that lead in. i'm not sure about dow 38,000. we are underweight relative to the rest of the world. but it has been a very challenging environment, very choppy. pick your reason to be bearish. hard to be bullish when there's so many muscles coming out of nowhere. power shortages, evergrande, etc. you name it.
i think the key point is in that environment, keep your eye on the big picture. the big picture for me is really one of several components. most importantly, delta is fading as a key issue for financial markets. two, asia is reopening. japan just announced the end of lockdown. so asia reopening is a real critical issue here. three, growth is bottoming. just as everyone is talking about all these issues, supply, all these worries, the citi economic surprise index across the globe, in the u.s., asia, and in europe, all three of them are bottoming and turning up. to me, i think we are going to exit this year and go into 2022 with synchronized global expansion. that is the first time we have had that since covid began, and that is going to cure a lot of these ills. we will have plenty of opportunities to sell, and
therefore the market will move higher because they are going to be more buyers and sellers as we look into that more favorable 2022. jonathan: thanks for that last bit, as always. [laughter] jay: it is too early in the morning. jonathan: i wonder how the dollar fits into that because right now on the screens, dollar is stronger. jay: i think that is right. delta has provided a lull that i did not expect to be as significant. everyone is still focused on it, but markets focus forward. that pushes inventory restocking, etc. into 2022, and reaffirms the growth profile. the dollar, that is tricky. one could argue that it has broken out. my view is that right now, the rest of the world still hasn't confirmed that synchronized expansion.
once that is confirmed, i think dollar weakness follows. the dollar has had multiple opportunities to break higher. now it looks like it is technically breaking out. does it sustain that breakout? i tend to doubt it. that is not the position i have at the moment. lisa: but it does underscore there is a different nature to this reflation trade. i know you are leaning into cyclicals, but the nature of which cyclicals will out perform at a time of higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions that keep crimping those margins in specific sectors, but us drills and -- sectors, industrials and materials in particular. what do you want to own? jay: we are bullish, especially in the u.s. cyclicals and value small-cap. we are in the early phases of transition, multiple transitions, all very important. the first is from a liquidity driven market to an earnings driven market. the second is from a growth driven market to a value driven market.
the third, which ties together with this, is the fact that we are ending a 40 year bull market in bonds as we break higher in interest rates, which i think we will do over the next six to 12 months. we get above 2% on the 10 year. that is going to break a 40 year trendline. i think what we have seen this week, in terms of bond action, to me that is just a precursor of what is going to come, so it does, to get to your question in a roundabout way, we are focused on financials because of that outlook. we are focused on energy. i think we are going to be able to make energy make money as both investing in fossil fuel, as we have seen with oil, and in between energy, as we have seen with carbon. that is one of the trades we have. we have big positions in both xle -- as you know, i focus mainly on etf's -- big positions on krpm, and they can work
together. so there are really significant opportunities because in the midst of all of this, we are having to deal with climate change and climate mitigation, and that to me is the single biggest local macro trend theme of the decade. tom: what is so important in this narrative is the response of corporate leadership to the cards they have been dealt. jonathan: that is going to be difficult thing for the quarters ahead. the cards they have been dealt so far are higher cost, it struggled to access the goods they need to sell. we are going to see a lot of that through q4, through q3 earnings season. what is the playbook for you? i wonder how you look to approach it. jay: markets focus forward. i called it covid speed a year ago. i introduced the concept of climate speed a month ago.
speed is really the thing to focus on. so you have to look forward. i think the markets are going to pay much less attention, investors much less attention to q3 results, much more attention to q4 in 2022 outlook. supply chain issues are a concern, but they are going to fade. asia is reopening. the court backlogs are going to ease. all of that stuff is temporary. it is not permanent. as it fades, that provides a tailwind to the upside. profit margins are at all-time highs. i am a believer that we have a chance to move into a higher than abrupt trend growth outlook --higher than above growth trend outlook, perfect for conditions for a boom, which can provide a productivity serve which offsets the increase in wage costs, and we have an environment like the second half of the 1990's when you had productivity gains offset wage gains, so you had a high growth, low inflation environment where
stocks did extremely well. i think that is what we are setting up for in developed economies around the world in the next couple of years jonathan: just to can -- next couple of years. jonathan: just to confirm, it is september 29, 2021, although it sounds like an interview we may have done a couple of months ago. that really is the call that people were looking for through 2021 that has not developed. jay is ultimately making that call for 2022, that synchronized global growth will be the story for next year. it did not happen this year. tom: it is not a bullish call. it is the new winces -- the nuances of the people mucking people call. jonathan: here's one stretch, u.s. people is not an option come from the white house. tom: there's going to be some of those discussions on capitol hill today. that's annmarie hordern. jonathan: 26 point higher on the s&p. it is a turnaround. the morning, up 0.6%.
tom: synchronized global gloom is what it is. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. on capitol hill, democrats have had a wall in their effort to avoid government shutdown, a debt default, and advance president biden's agenda. time is running out for funding the government and praising the debt ceiling. in japan, fumio kishida is set to become the next prime minister. the former foreign minister won the leadership of the party. he will place a test of broader appeal and election. the largest maker of u.s. memory chips is falling, micron.
micron is coming off a record year, but it's sales forecast the period ended in miss estimates that in missed estimates. netflix has bought night school studio for an undisclosed amount. the company is best known for his debut title, the supernatural mystery adventure "oxenfree." netflix plans to make games part of its subscription service with no added fees or in-app purchases. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
on ships and warehouses and getting it distributed around the country, that is going to clear, and at that point we will have a very large capacity abroad, and we will be back to where we were pre-pandemic. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. your equity market up 21, 0.5%. the biggest one-day loss since march on the nasdaq. the nasdaq advancing 0.6 percent. the bond market turned around a little bit. yields in two basis points to 1.5132%. euro-dollar still negative, $1.1656. the dollar index the one to watch, pushing $94 now, $93.90. let's pick up on a comment from a viewer and good friend of this program, neil dutta of
renaissance macro. "senator warren's comments against chair powell will likely improve his chances. republicans now have cover to vote for his confirmation should he be renominated." tom: dutta is cynical. jonathan: good take, though. interesting. tom: it is. i looked up the greenspan battles from when greenspan was reappointed. it is all the same. lisa: did you actually think it was in question whether republicans would vote for confirmation? was it ever an issue? jonathan: it might give more republicans a little more cover. lisa: he was nominated and put there by president trump. jonathan: he is a republican. lisa: anyway, carry on. tom: right now, ben laidler with us and jay pelosky as we switch over to fixed income, ira jersey , running fixed income strategy for bloomberg intelligence.
we are coming up on $1.5 trillion. worry that, worry long-term, were a short term. which part of the yield curve right now matters to ira jersey? ira: i am looking at the five year and the seven year sector because that will really get a clue as to how far the federal reserve will ultimately hike rates once they do. watched that for clues as to if the market is really worried that the fed is getting behind the curve and it is going to hike much faster and further than they have been expecting before. so five-year, seven year i think will be the key here. lisa: do you buy that a lot of the move in the treasury market has been driven by europe, by inflation expeditions there, and by the bank of england more hawkish than people expected? ira: not only the bank of england being more hawkish, and certainly gilts have been leaving the move, but also remember lagarde at the european
central bank was also a little more hawkish. not that we are expecting the ecb to hike rates, but would it comes to may be easing some of their bond purchases in the future and tapering their own purchases, very possible. so all of this is feeding into the somewhat bearish tone in the market right now. i don't expect new highs this year and yields, but i do expect yields to be a little higher than where they are right now. lisa: what was the surprise about any of this? ira: there wasn't a lot of surprise, but sometimes people worry that until there's an actual announcement, similar to taper, people weren't believing that the fed was necessarily going to taper in november even though it had been hinted at basically since june. it really took until this past meeting and some of the subsequent comments for the market to wake up and say actually, we will be reducing at that purchases -- reducing asset purchases starting in november. tom: what is the dynamic of inflation-adjusted yield?
higher yields, higher inflation. is the real yield -- has the real yield actually budged? ira: most of the recent move in the last week since the fed meeting, almost all of it has come in terms of real yield. you only have breakevens in the tenure sector up about five basis points, were you have an almost 20 basis point selloff in real yields. as the federal reserve tapers, one of the interesting dynamics we are going to see over the next six months or so is the fed is going to reduce their asset purchases at the same time the treasury department is going to be cutting the amount of coupon debt, so this is 10 year, 30 year, and 5-year note they are going to be issuing. the actual risk to the market in coupons can be the same, but in the tips market, the dynamic is much different, and the fed reduction in purchases is going to mean a lot more risk in tips. so i think the tips market, you go from -85 basis points up to -50, -40 basis points, which is
still negative, but that is a pretty substantial move in rates, and that is how we get nominal yields back up towards this year's high. tom: so which is the horse and which is the cart and that wonderful explanation? ira: i think it is real yields that are going to move, and inflation breakevens, the market expectation of where inflation will be, is probably going to be little changed over that time. tom: do you see how i did that? that was sophisticated cfa analysis. thank you. jonathan: that's why i step back , to just let you go at it. thought you might promo the show on friday as well. tom: we can promote "the real yield" on friday, with guests we can't get. jonathan: thank you, tom. a big factor in this over the past week, real yields. lisa: the idea that you have seen real yields go up. i wonder how much they can go up based on the demand coming from overseas. i think that is the reason why
perhaps the move in europe, in britain was what was actually notable. it shifts the international picture pretty sick leave. -- pretty significantly. jonathan: every time we get this, we call it the reflation trade. why do we do that? lisa: because it makes sense that we will get more inflation as we recover, but this is not the same thing. that has been a very interesting feature of this particular week. this trade is basically based on other attributes, not just this idea of a global synchronized recovery. tom: urgent tweet. thank you, dave. can someone get ira jersey and office and get him out of the snack bar? [laughter] jonathan: we don't do offices here at bloomberg, tom. you know that. lisa: it is like a punishment. jonathan: he gets to be close to the snacks. jonathan: we are on the same page. tom: ira just wants to be arm's-length to the cheez-its.
jonathan: does anyone need to know this? probably not. up 21 on the s&p, advancing 0.5%. if you are waking up this morning -- i am not bitter or anything. [laughter] yields in a couple of basis points, at 1.5184%. do you want to look at bitcoin? tom: no i don't. $42,000, steady. jonathan: advancing 1.37%. tom: control room gets that bitcoin banner up there. jonathan: 11:00 eastern, chairman powell, governor kuroda, governor bailey, president lagarde all going to talk at a forum. that is the lineup. i will be hosting that panel, too, tom.
jonathan: it is wednesday morning. live from new york city, here is the price action. up 20 on the s&p 500. it is a bounce back from yesterday's big day of losses on the s&p come the biggest one-day loss back to make. -- back to may. in the bond market yields turnaround but only little bit. crude turned around a little bit. euro-dollar does not. 1.1654. there is dollar strength in that dollar strength sticks this morning. tom: dollar strength is interesting and maybe it signals the end of the economic estimate. right now for bloomberg surveillance and all of new york city it is about recovery.
some of that leadership has come off of deutsche bank. christina riley's interview with bloomberg in celebration of their move to midtown. i have to say come in the heat of this pandemic, we are here, we will stay here and we will open offices. jonathan: does the deutsche bank center. formerly known as the time warner building. tom: joining us is architect matthew luzzetti with deutsche bank and also their chief u.s. economist. give us a snapshot into christina riley and you opening up the new deutsche bank center. give us one snapshot of the trading floor. matthew: we are very excited to move into the new building. the views, natural light from some of the new training floor is something that has is very excited to get back to the office and doing normal business in the office on a more regular basis. tom: and so close to whole
foods. let's talk the u.s. economy. give us an update on how you have tweaked the view. q3 ending. q4 ended the 2022. what is the nuance of your gdp call for america? matthew: we have all had to do a lot of tweaks recently with the supply disruption which s8 -- which has shaken confidence which we saw with the data and has slowed consumer spending in services. we have downgraded growth this year and we expected to be closer to 6%, where we were above 7% earlier. one key difference from our perspective as we have not upgraded growth next year as much as some others have. the fit upgraded to 3.8% growth next year. we are only a 3.1%. there is robust growth, this is well above potential, but we are below consensus. we have lost some output that
cannot be made up. supply disruptions are longer-lasting than what we had anticipated. jonathan: 4.2 is the consensus view for next year. getting together the estimates on wall street. you are 1% below that. as far as growth is concerned can you walk me through why that is and how quickly we get back to that kind of level? matthew: there's a difference between annual over annual and q4 over q4 which is explaining some of that gap. from a growth perspective, we are at a point coming out of this crisis where there is a lot of uncertainty about what potential growth looks like. productivity has been strong. what does the labor force look like? the fed is currently dealing with low labor force retirement that is picked up and is that a permanent story going forward? i am optimistic on the potential growth story. we have seen going back 30
years, when you have tight labor markets, went wage growth is picking up it tends to lead to productivity cycle. that goes beyond any stories about innovation. a tight labor market does tend to lead to productivity gains. from that perspective we are optimistic to get growth above 2% over the next several years. that should help to keep wage and inflation pressures in check. jonathan: you think this is a tight labor market? matthew: today it is. look at the vacancy yields. how much job openings are turning into hires, it is low. wage growth is elevated. it is a tight labor market and businesses are acting as such and that will tell us productivity growth should be moving higher on a trend basis. i question whether or not that is a more persistent story from
a labor market perspective. if you fast forward 12 months all of these labor constraints, certainly covid is a major one. ui benefits is the lesser one. all of these supply constraints, i anticipate they will be behind us. at that point we revert to the 2019 labor market where we keep finding labor supply. that will help to keep forward-looking wage pressures in check. lisa: i want to go back to this idea that we will see some consumption not picked up next year. what is behind the slowdown in consumer spending given how big some of the savings cushions are? is it people are concerned about covid or is there something insidious to spend at a time there still so much uncertainty? matthew: and part of this loss consumption, there is a fundamental difference in goods and services spending. you can delay good spending and
maybe that is not lost consumption. your lost travel or lost restaurant bookings is likely to be lost consumption. that is how we are thinking about it in terms of services versus goods. everybody is focused on delta. we did an analysis last week showing the lost on insurance benefits was really important. we had to use county level data to disentangle the effects. it does tell you that in september unemployment insurance benefits rollup in more states. it does keep a lid on the near term in terms of consumer spending. it is a covid story, particularly for the services sector, but there is a lost income story for a lot of the households that did not build up savings. we know savings were allocated towards wealthier households and older households. there is a big income hit coming
for those households in middle and lower income distribution. lisa: you dovetail inflation into this. there was a report showing that even though online shoppers will be buying last, they will be spending more because of the inflationary inputs. we are not talking stagflation. we talk about other things, that i dynamic -- the dynamic of how much this slows growth. what is your take on how pernicious this is? matthew: is a supply shock. we are seeing price pressures and real consumption that come down significantly. the auto sector is the key epicenter of that. we saw auto sales plunge. we have seen new vehicle prices much more elevated. that dynamic does persist and what it means is production is lower where the inventory rebuilt we all anticipated gets
delayed, perhaps pushed out to q4 or the first time next year. it does keep price pressures more elevated. there is the question of how does the fed deal with that? there is a lot of uncertainty be about what does fit leadership look like? we think the lift off is around mid 2023. the inflation question is key to that and what does fit leadership look like from a composition perspective? tom: you and peter hooper had an absolute lisa perp -- absolutely superb research over the last year. what is the reach of technology? do we underestimate the technological input into global society? matthew: thank you. we do believe we are. from my perspective, when we look back to the past productivity booms, whether it was the information technology
boom previously, you need to have both the i.t. in-place or the tech in place and you need to have businesses incentivized to invest. the question is what does that incentivizing? it is often the labor market. is it hard to find labor, is it costly to find labor. if it is, you incentivize businesses to invest and ultimately use their inputs. i think we have the dynamic every several years. the tightening of the market
really incentivizing investment by businesses. tom: thank you so much. what is so important is al from new jersey emails and he does note that even though there is all of this term alt at the time warner center, they're still the porterhouse bar and grill. thank you for that knowledge. jonathan: we appreciate that. are you calling it the deutsche bank center? tom: it has the porterhouse grill. you and i are going with lisa. lisa: are you saying that if we called the deutsche bank center we can eat there? tom: the portions are all tiny. jonathan: you go there for the service. this equity market, we do fade. tom: oh, the show. jonathan: the show has faded too. the dollar index is about to break out 94. interesting moves taking place towards the opening bell. tom: this is not a normal predictable last two years. there is something going on. jonathan: dollar index close to 94. there is.
-- there it is. lisa: yields are coming back a little bit off their lows. the synchronized moves fading the rally in equities and fitting the rally in bonds, i wonder how consistent that will be? jonathan: the strongest this year on the dollar. coming up on the open we talk about this with megan greene of the harvard kennedy school of government. from new york, futures are positive. the bounce fades. the story of the fx market, dollar strength. the dollar index with a 94 handle. from new york city, on radio, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. the deutsche bank center it is. no one will know where you made. tom: it looks good on radio. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.
congressional democrats are at an impasse. they have hit a wall in an attempt to do with three crucial issues at once. avert a government shutdown, prevent a debt default come and move forward on president biden's for trillion dollar agenda. republicans are blocking an attempt to raise the debt ceiling -- north korea said its latest rocket launch was a successful test of a hypersonic missile. that suggests kim jong-un's regime has come closer at putting nuclear warheads and high-speed gliders that can evade u.s. missile defenses. it was difficult for experts to verify the claim. france has warned the u.k. is in violation of the brexit deal. france says britain denied several small european sheen boat access to its territorial what it's -- small european fishing boats. france attempted to prevent u.k.
financial doing business in the eu if the fishing debate was not resolved. u.s. regulators are moving towards authorizing booster shots for the moderna vaccines. the u.s. has already okayed the pfizer biontech shot for a booster. deutsche bank is marking its -- the german bank is snapping up dozens of traders in the u.s. and europe. they will focus on contracts that bet on defaults in individual companies. deutsche bank exited that business six years ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
he is not there just for democrats. he is not there just for republicans. he is not there just for the president of the party that appointed him. tom: breyer of the supreme court , breyer of the great legal heritage of this nation and truly front and center on the future of the supreme court. without question, david rubenstein's most important interview for the nation with stephen breyer. we are thrilled david rubenstein can join us right now. 9:00 tonight to see that on bloomberg television. what a wonderful moment. what was the surprise of your conversation? david: he does not seem to be that upset when people ask him about when he will retire? he is used to the question. i would get tired of it. he is basically used to saying i will make the decision when i make the decision. he did not indicate to me when he is going to do it.
i've my own views on when he is likely to do it but he did not say specifically when he is going to retire. i would suspect it is probably closer to this term than the next term. tom: you have been a student of the court. how liberal is stephen breyer? david: p is clearly in the liberal wing and i think people would say he is the dean of the liberal wing. he has been in the court for 20 years. i would say he and justice soda mayor and justice kagan -- and justice sonia sotomayor and justice kagan are the liberal wing that is left, such as it is. i have known him since i worked on capitol hill about 40 years ago. he is a smart person. he did not necessarily think he was going to be a justice of the supreme court. when he went for the first interview he did not do well because he had a bike accident and did not do well in the interview with bill clinton. he later got the position after
ruth bader ginsburg got the first appointment. lisa: the fact that he gets asked when he is going to retire highlights the deeply politicized nature of these appointments. the machinations behind what happened with ruth bader ginsburg. how much do you think this reflects a more politicized court never before? david: he wrote a book and that was the subject of the interview. he has been giving interviews because there is a book that talks about the fact justices are not political. they do not talk about politics. outside of the court we have politicized the confirmation process and most people see certain decisions like bush versus gore as political. he does not agree with that. today the court is seen as more political than it was before that is something he is not happy about but there's not much he can do. tom: what is so important growing up with jerry brown and the rest of that stephen breyer did is the heritage of the
country. you are an expert working in chicago. lisa: the idea of constitutional law being increasingly polarized , six justices deeply in the conservative wing and voting as a pack when it comes to certain things like abortion rights, at least so far and all of these more politicized issues. there is a deeper issue. that is as an investor you have a deep respect for trying to game out how washington acts. has there ever been more of a sense of on passable gridlock at a time when even the parties are divided to such a degree? david: i have not seen anything like this in the last 100 years. obviously during the civil war it was like this. now we don't have any sense that cooperating is a good thing and bipartisanship is out the window. you cannot get a bipartisan vote to pass the debt limit anymore. i am saddened by it.
the supreme court is trying to avoid being seen as political but i think many people still see it as somewhat political, unfortunately. tom: is the grace of the court gone? when you look at the clerk system, the cadence of top students becoming clerks and that going on two different appointments, is the grace still there in our judiciary? david: it is still a great honor. each justice gets four clerks. it is a big honor to be one of those. my law school has nine this year, the most they've ever had. these are the leading students in the country and many do become justices themselves. justice breyer was a clerk for justice goldberg. justice roberts was a clerk as well. he said many of these justices coming back having been clerks. these are smart people. i want to point out that the
court, while it is seen as political by many people is still probably the most respected of the three branches of government. increasingly people say what the court says is that is the law of the land. in other countries it is not necessarily the case when the top court says something, they obey it. here when the supreme court says something we do recognize that. the rule of law is important to this country. i think the court, while it is unfortunately political, it is still more respected than the executive branch for the legislative branch. lisa: aside from the big polemics of the day, how much consensus is there on the court? how many cases do we see that our 8-1 or even unanimous that go to the heart of how we rule in the united states? david: a few years ago the court used to do 120 cases a year, now they are down to about 75.
i would say half of them are unanimous. they do not getting any attention but they are relatively unexciting bankruptcy cases. the cases that are 5-4 are about 20% of the cases. that is when you get most of the attention. obviously there are things like abortion or redistricting or voting rights. on most cases they are fairly straightforward in terms of the law. most cases are close to being unanimous. tom: david rubenstein, host of peer-to-peer conversations with justice breyer tonight at 9:00 p.m. the markets, it has pulled back a little bit. the bounce is less bouncy. lisa: the bounce has a little but of a fate. the interesting thing is you seeing bonds and stocks moved together again. this is compelling. the idea of the rally is fading inequities at the same time it
is fading in bonds. the dollar still the strongest it has been since november. tom: for those of you on radio, this is something you will have to look up at home. it is easy to look up. thank you to tv canaries, the television feed of the canary islands. the images are once-in-a-lifetime. whatever your literature is a volcanoes over the years, the fiction of other centuries, this is the reality. i want to listen to the trauma of this. it is less explosive than it was an hour ago. lisa: the idea we are watching this unfold. we are watching it happen in real time. tom: it looks like the final scene of the x-files. massive volcano, lava spewing into the air come into the ocean. lisa: it looks like my
.4 percent after yesterday's big day of losses. "the countdown to the open" starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. the calm after the bond market storm. >> market is rationalizing. >> the bond and equity joint selloff. >> people are closing their eyes and waiting for this to be worked out. >> we entered a high volatility regime. >> the 10 year yield at 1.5%. >> the fed has said they are changing policy. >>