tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg September 30, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT
♪ manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. dani burger alongside me in london hq. the stories that set your agenda. chuck schumer says a deal has been reached to avoid a u.s. government shutdown this friday. he risks to president biden's economic agenda remain. no need to fret. leading central bank chiefs try to reassure the markets over
inflation. we get the cpi readings from france and germany today. and a power crunch bites. activity and china contracts for the first time since the pandemic began. very good morning. warm welcome to the show. it is transitory, you know. that's the reassurance from the central bank. i do like christine lagarde's very precise direction. they don't believe it is transitory. 30 basis points. 25 basis points in the last week. herein lies the point. bank of america encapsulated it all for me. where are we in this stage of interest rate grief? the first state is recognizing the driver is good. the second stage is frightening. bank of america saying we are in
the second stage. that has a lot of issues for credit. good morning. dani: good morning. your bond markets might be repricing but let me tell you what's happening on wall street. people are getting ready for a repricing in the equity market. it has a lot to do with what you just showed us. these yields taking higher. we've seen the effect on big tech. i don't think there's been a day where we haven't had our inboxes flooded with these types of calls from strategists. yesterday, a survey of clients shows a 20% fall is more likely than a 20% gain by years end. or from rbc, saying that soft positioning has elevated and they are vulnerable to macro shocks. bonds and equities could continue to sell off together. manus: absolutely. they just came in.
i'll leave you with this thought. there's a growing disconnect between the utterances of assurance from the central bankers and what the bond market is pricing. they are not aligned. they are just not aligned. the beginning, middle, and. christine lagarde said it, therefore it must be true. dani: let me get to that market check. the pavlovian dog taking hold. these are gains in europe and big tech. everybody focusing on the nasdaq after three consecutive days of declines. trading at its lowest in two months. we are up 8%. the pound is higher, much to do with the dollar weakening story. we have cracked below 135, the lowest since january. iron ore has been on a tear today. at one point, up by as much as 10%. china stocking up the mills before the holiday season. manus: can i tell you something?
can i explain the lower cables? i was on my way to the exchange to change drums into pounds. there you have it. the worst dollar on the market ever. the menace volatility index. let's talk about volatility and politics. the majority leader says that the lawmakers have reached an agreement to avoid the shutdown of the u.s. government this week. what's it all about? no shutdown in the government. that's good news. what about infrastructure? good morning. >> good morning. no shutdown is very good news. you can keep your new year plans in place. mine are there already. we will have a big celebration at my house. it's my daughter's ninth birthday. that's a big deal in my house. i think that the big news is going to be not just we
prevented disaster for another couple months, but it will be the bigger issue of the debt limit as well as the issue of infrastructure which is on hold right now. this is a $3.5 trillion infrastructure agenda plan. alongside the more compromised, bipartisan plan. they both have to work together. they have tension. we haven't seen any way between democratic moderates and democratic progressives to get it together. we did have a statement from joe manchin that some people took to mean very bearish. i took it as more bullish. it suggests that he wants to get something done. what he wants is anyone gas. there's a lot of confusion and not a lot of great ways to say this is the way it's going to play out.
debt limit is another one of those things. republicans won't help at all with that. democrats don't necessarily want to go through a big long, two week process of beating the clock and doing it by themselves. they are leaving themselves that outlet to do that if they have to. dani: thank you very much. happy ninth birthday to your daughter. hopefully she has another decade before she has to worry about politics. in china, factory activity contracted in september for the first time since the pandemic began. it's a sign that the electricity crunches having widespread damage on an already slowing economy. let's bring in juliette saly for more on this and the asian markets. juliette: you can see it reflected in the white line here. the first contraction on the factory floor since the pandemic began. we saw a bounce back in nonmanufacturing. it is starting to show that the
power crunch is weighing on a slowing economy. bloomberg economics saying you can see this having a substantial impact. let's see how markets are reacting. the other aspect of this is that it increases the likelihood of intervention. will we see a triple are cut? we saw liquidity from the pboc. chinese stocks ending the quarter on a positive note. we are still seeing weakness in tech players. not only rising yields but more beijing regulatory clampdown here. iron ore helping out australia's market. your pan to start on a negative note. a turnaround there. most of the ltp election has been priced in. let's have a look at what we are seeing in dollar-yen as we continue to see the strong dollar. a bit of a rebound coming down from the yen today. you are seeing dollar-yen march towards 2021 highs, suggesting that it could get to 113. the caveat is the debt ceiling
deadline. do traders believe it is transitory? do you see a switch in haven assets once again? manus: thank you very much. american oil producers are boosting at a slower pace as record costs hit the shale industry. that's according to a report by the federal reserve bank. investors watch the surprise gain in u.s. to -- u.s. crude stockpiles. the natural cap on markets may no longer be as strong as it was. stephen has the latest. what do you make of the drillers being topped out on capex? stephen: it's an interesting situation. it is something that the market hasn't experienced for a while. it's not just capex.
there is a growing atmosphere in the united states that upstream supply should be developed as quickly as it would have under previous administrations. the biden administration has the desire to be cleaner. at the same time, investors are much more conscience of green ambitions. they are asking that the companies that they invest in think about their futures. that's putting a cap on shale drillers. at the same time, they remember last year. they know that they boost supply and suddenly there's another a break of covid and prices fall into negative territory. they could go out of business. that was a big impact and that is fresh in their memory. dani: thanks so much. let's get over to the first word news with juliette saly. juliette: hey there. the eu and u.s. are still divided over tariffs on metals. the dispute going back to the
trump era. eu officials told reporters that the issue was discussed but a resolution has not been found so far. trump imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum in 2018. a former goldman sachs compliance analyst was helpless to stop the bank from insider trading has been charged with insider trading. the sec claims he used his position in the banks office to access confidential information to carry out trades netting $470,000 in illegal profits. a lawyer for him could not be immediately located for comment. the international olympic committee says no international spectators will be allowed at beijing's 2022 winter games. tickets will be sold exclusively to spectators residing in china's mainland to meet virus
requirements. the ioc also says athletes who are not fully vaccinated will have to quarantine for 21 days upon arrival in beijing. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you. this is what we are keeping our eyes on. inflation nuances. cpi from france. germany at 1:00. how entrenched is your inflation strike? dani: we will talk to the cbr management director economist coming up later to discuss those points. coming up, european equities bounce back from their two month low. we discussed the latest rest of the global market, next. manus: later in the show, we focus on the warnings from kathy woods and scott minerd. what are the next big risks?
♪ dani: welcome back. investors are finishing the third quarter concerned about global growth and inflationary pressures. a looming energy crisis and fears of a 20% pullback in stocks, according to a survey by city which we were discussing earlier this morning. it's not just the bond market fears. it's those equities. let's dig further into this. joining us now is nick nielsen. thank you so much for joining us this morning. the calls stacking up on wall street of the fragility of the equity market. are you preparing your clients as well for more pain in the
equity market coming into year-end? nick: i think we are in a correction, a small correction right now. go back all the way to november last year. we had the good news on the vaccine for pfizer. we hadn't had a 5% pullback in the stoxx 600 and european equities which is quite amazing. very uncommon. i don't think we should he too shocked to see this pullback. i think it's no coincidence that there are concerns over speed. it's no coincidence that it's occurring when we are in the results season. whilst we are not hearing the good news from the corporate's, we are looking at the macro concerns and that's putting us back a bit. i would say we are in a small correction. you see equities higher by the end of the year. manus: again, good to have you with us this morning.
there's lots of notes. we can pick some of them. citigroup said we are more likely to see a 20% pullback then it 1% rally. it's not their base case but i want to get a sense from you. bond yields at 1.5%. i don't think that's enough to invoke a 20% drawdown. what could push us beyond healthy 5% drawdown? what is a healthy number for the ups team? nick: sure. i agree with you. i think 150 on the 10 year treasury is not enough to really cause difficulties. if you look at the 30 year average, it is close to 4%. we are still in a world of ultra low interest rates in the u.s.. of course, here in europe. all for cash and government bonds. for us, the context that could become more concerning would be the speed of the move. not only the level -- we see 10
year treasuries at 180 by the end of the year. if we see the -- more than 40 basis points a month, that would be starting to be problematic for equities. the speed of the move is important as well as the level. dani: you mentioned your earnings outlook as well. we have a chart here about european equity upgrades. sorry to go back to a city data point yet again. if you look at the most recent data points we have, it is starting to fall in terms of those upgrades. even at risk of turning into downgrades. i know that you are looking at some earnings upgrades driving games in european equities. i'm wondering if this sort of picture concerns you about the earnings picture to come. nick: it's a very difficult question and we are facing this not just about earnings, but about the economy. things are still good. we are still getting upgrades for earnings.
pmi is still high. of course, that is decelerating. pmi's peak. earnings have peaked. gdp growth has peaked. we are past the peak in terms of the macro and micro. that moves us into a different space in the cycle. it is still one where you can get pretty decent returns. specifically on earnings. it's important to remember that august was the best month for earnings upgrades since the data began 30 years ago. we have some very powerful upgrades and yes, it's completely right. the september data velocity is decelerating. we are getting upgrades but they are very modest. i suspect we will probably see more upgrades beating in q3.
if you look historically, after the peak months in upgrades which will be august here, it's about six months or so before you have sustained downgrades. that would point to end of q1. i think there's more of a runway to upgrade between now and the end of the year. manus: you are using words that are music to danny's ears. you tune into daybreak way too often. we are all about the velocity. that sets the stage. you are still reasonably bullish. we will get a big piece of news today about bank dividends. we have a host of people talking about steepening yields curves and if europe will outperform relative to the u.s.. can you attach any of that narrative in those opportunities that you talk about. nick: yes.
if we are in this world of higher bond yields, deeper yield curves, that's an environment that is favoring europe over the u.s., given the sector miss. europe is heavier in financials, heavier in commodities and cyclicals. we are superlight in tech. we don't have the things. in reality, the tech index in europe is smaller. what we have seen this week is as these bond yields in the u.s. have moved sharply higher, we have tended to see the growth stocks underperform the s&p. from that perspective, by the sheer makeup of the index, you would expect erupted probably do a little bit better in this world where we are talking about a steeper yield curve, higher bond yields, a little bit more inflation, sticky inflation, high commodity prices. when you're talking pan europe,
you have a lot of energy exposure there as well. all of those factors favor europe in a shorter cyclical perspective. remember, europe's reopening has been lagging behind the u.s.. the u.s. peaked in may. europe peaked in august. being behind is probably a good thing now as we move later in the cycle. manus: we will pick up those themes in just a moment. don't go anywhere. nick nelson at ubs, dac -- back with the team. three titans of wall street tell bloomberg that they see the most significant risks facing the economies and society in the coming years. what are they? the big take, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
that we were will really -- were really vulnerable to is the sustainability of the global payments system. it would appear to me that we are extremely vulnerable to having an attack against the payment system of the financial market. >> think of people whose jobs have not been displaced by this big step that business has taken to digitalization, have no assets to begin with. they then benefit from what has happened to asset prices. >> there are a lot of value traps populating traditional benchmarks today. the value traps will be significant downsides because of all of the disruption and disintermediation. manus: all talking about what they think the next biggest risks are in the world into markets.
it's interesting. minor talks about attack, inequality. that is social unrest. very real. that's happening. the value traps from kathy woods, she warns about companies with debt that scramble to get the last times and give you a share buyback and a dividend. where do you see the biggest risk trap or value trap? let's start there, with what you don't want to own. nick: if you have very indebted companies, particularly in this world where interest rates are starting to moderate. maybe they've extended themselves a little bit through the cycle where you haven't seen rationalization or the greater disruption of some sectors were stocks maybe should've gone out of business and companies should have disappeared get markets should have consolidated. because of government support or whatever, they've managed to
come through. as we normalize a little bit, we still are talking about low rates. as those rates start to normalize, there will be indebted companies where there are problems in terms of starting to service that debt. overall, i don't think it's an issue. balance sheets look pretty healthy. there's great profit growth and great cash flow as well. there hasn't been a consolidation, they would have a bit more concern. dani: as the economy normalizes, as yields start to pick up, value is a strategy that starts to become en vogue. how do you want to be visited -- positioned? what do you want to be buying? nick: we are in a world where it's the end of the year, sticky yield curves, higher bond yields , economic growth still reasonably robust.
value massively underperformed growth from the peak in bonds back in march all the way through the beginning of the month. whilst we are not saying that this is going to be a new multi-year time for evaluations, i don't think it will be, i think there's a time where you might have a short rotation into some of these value stocks that have been left behind. energy is one that we quite like. for example, brent pershing up towards 80 bucks. we have a load of cash flow here. we had a load of dividends and buybacks. a load of earnings upgrades as well. that's a place where we think it looks quite interesting in this type of environment. another part of the market is germany which has been through elections there. dani: ok. thank you so much. i'm afraid we are coming up to a break. nick nelson there.
thanks for joining us. coming up, central bank heads say no need to fight over inflation. look ahead to key euro area inflation data that is out soon. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that?
dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i'm dani burger alongside manus cranny live from dubai. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. one hurdle down, chuck schumer says the deal has been reached to avoid a government shutdown this friday. but risk to president biden's economic agenda remains. central bank chiefs tried to reassure the markets over
inflation. and the power crunch bite. factory activity contracts in china for the first time since the pandemic began. yesterday, the phrase that obsessed me was the pavlovian buy the dip. all of the doom and gloom that seems to be coming from wall street strategists. my inbox is chock-full of these type of notes. the most recent one coming from citibank. their client survey says stocks are more likely to fall 20% than they are to gain 20%. it is given that sticky inflation that is moving the bond guys that you are watching. manus: nick nelson was just with you and i from ubs, saying he did not think 1.5% was enough to irk that greater drawdown. citi, 20% pullback is more
likely than a 20% rally. 60% are getting ready for sticky inflation. they see yields at 2%. nick nelson says 1.5% is not enough to give you 20% drawdown on the markets. let me just show you what is going on with risk. where are we in the phase of evolution of the bond market? citigroup have that note out. a crash is more likely than a rally, but a modest s&p gain are the base case. nasdaq was down three days in a row, but you saw the pavlovian dog buyers come in. i'm a contrarian indicator. you take away the fact of the day with whatever you want. my life-saving is at the bottom of the pound run.
it is certainly trading like an unpredictable pound. people are losing faith in the credibility of the u.k. situation. i'm not trading the pound, i should declare. dani: i was going to say i can't wait until some derivatives desk starts offering some sort of exotic options on the manus sterling volatility index. it is only a matter of time now. [laughter] manus: a matter of time. dani: over at the ecb, policymakers, economists, and academics have discussed to the economic implications of covid and future challenges to monetary policy. >> this inflationary spike will not lead to a new regime of ongoing higher inflation. the current inflation spike is a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. >> we have no reason to believe that this price increase that we
are seeing now will not be largely transitory. >> excluding the temporary shocks like this one, it is based on the not so weak headline figures. >> the effective rates in the margin is much better understood. that is not to prejudge what we will find in november. manus: joining us now is our european economy editor. we have inflation data from germany and france today. that is going to be for the pan-european reading. how concerned are we about another chip higher? >> i think it is inevitable. we have already seen numbers out of spain yesterday that were a lot stronger than expected. spanish inflation is running at 4%. that is twice the ecb goal. french data is expected to show
a stronger reading. germany is also forecast to show 4% inflation later today. there is little doubt that euro area inflation as well will accelerate or will have accelerated in september. it doesn't come as much as a surprise to the ecb. that is expected. the president has said numerous times that she expects price growth to accelerate in the coming months. before slowing next year as a number of short-term factors fall out. dani: does that mean no reaction from the ecb in response to these figures? >> for now, i would say yes. we heard christine lagarde yesterday. she said the spike we are seeing now is largely transitory. she has attributed about half of what we are seeing now to energy
, which has increased sharply this year. because of lockdowns. there are tax increases in germany as a result of the pandemic. there is a shift in summer sales. all those factors will fall out. that is one of the reasons why the ecb is relatively reluctant about it. at the same time, we have heard from the irish central bank governor yesterday morning about more sustained pressure's from the supply constraints that they are seeing at the moment. if those lead to higher inflation, to stronger wage demand and ultimately wage gain, then that is something they are going to monitor very carefully. new projections arrive in december. for now, i would say they will look at the data. they will study it.
i'm not expecting any fireworks from the ecb. dani: thank you so much. bloomberg's european economy editor. let's dig more into the economy picture, as well as inflation. joining us now is the managing economist at the center for economics and business research. two different signals from central bankers saying transitory versus a market, manus is pointing to the rise in the 30-year yield, which does not seem to believe them. who is right? >> looking at the global picture, it remains quite mixed. while everyone agrees that there are very transitory factors currently pushing up inflation, the impacts of base effects on last year, supply shocks that should wash out by next year, they still, some central banks are still signaling that they could start to taper asset purchases. we've got a contrast between the ecb saying that they are not
going to make any changes until there is significant evidence that these transitory shocks have passed and there are durable rises in inflation. recent signals from the fed and the bank of england and the u.k. have suggested that despite these transitory factors, they do believe tapering of asset purchases might be necessary in the near future and therefore i think that spooked markets a bit . they are expecting that at some point the fed is likely to taper asset purchases and therefore perhaps once that is done look toward raising rates over the coming years. not in the short term. but that tapering of asset purchases is a shift. manus: good morning. if we look at the data we are going to get. germany, spain, france, and the overall blended number.
way over the base case for the ecb. where is the most dangerous level of inflation that would endure and means the most to the european data? france, germany, or spain? where are you worried about the stickiness of inflation? good morning. >> germany certainly expected to be among the highest, around 4%. i would say that is not so concerning. there are significant base effects within that inflation from the lower prices last year that ended in december. by the time the january data comes out, we should start to see inflation fall. i think the concerns about inflation staying high are the supply and demand shocks which we are not completely certain will wash out.
so, oil prices, gas prices, i think over the whole of winter, there are concerns that they could stay high and have an impact on households. while businesses were energy sector companies are going to increase supply, i think we are likely to see high gas prices overwinter in something like a significant cold spell likely from the east in 2018 and then a cold spell in 2019 could drive up demand for gas to heat homes in that would cause inflation and that could happen anytime in this next year. dani: these are so many unknowns. i don't envy you at all for trying to figure this out. how opaque is the fourth quarter economy right now? >> it is certainly a difficult one. i think looking at q4 inflation above 2% it is almost certain
given that we know there are so many factors leading into that. in terms of things like economic growth, it is really still so determined by coronavirus. i think the delta variant has clearly shocked many economies more this year than they were hoping for. i think many people expected the second half of this year to be a full growth page. economies like the u.s. have been more impacted by the spread of the virus due to the delta variant. then would be hoped-for. as we head into winter in europe and the u.s., i think coronavirus still presents a big risk and that makes economic forecasts incredibly difficult because it really depends on the state of the pandemic that we are in. manus: thank you so much. the managing economist for the center for economics and business research. let's get your first word news with juliette saly. >> the eu and u.s. are still
divided over tariffs on metals. a dispute going back to the trump era. the inaugural u.s.-eu trade and technology council meeting in pittsburgh. the issue was discussed, but the resolution -- but no resolution found so far. trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018. a former goldman sachs compliance, last -- compliance analyst has been charged with insider trading by the sec. the sec claims he used his position in the bank's warsaw office to access confidential information to carry out trades netting him at least 470 thousand dollars in illegal profits. a lawyer for him could not be immediately located for comment. citigroup is trying to persuade an appeals group that revlon
creditors should return $500 million that the bank accidentally sent them last year every to roll heard arguments from both sides on whether it should reverse a lower court surprise decision that the lenders can keep the money. citigroup said that decision sent shockwaves through the market. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you so much. juliette saly in singapore. coming up, the u.k. is set to ended spend era -- pandemic era furlough scheme. we are going to have that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
dani: welcome back. i'm dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. the u.k. government is ending to of its pandemic era safety net programs that pumped almost 80 billion pounds into the economy. furlough support for wages and a temporary increase in benefits both are due to finish this week. they softened the blow of successive lockdowns and prevented a spike in unemployment. joining me is bloomberg's u.k. the economy reporter. if i can get my word rights -- words right. we have the furlough scheme ending. >> we have had warnings for months now, but there was no sign of that in the latest jobs data. the hardest hit are likely to be older workers pushed into early retirement. you could see a rise in underemployment with people
going back to their old jobs on fewer hours. you could point to the rise in vacancies, the labor shortages as a hope will sign. but if the newly unemployed don't have the right skills, it could be hard for them to move across. there are some people who argue for lows should be extended. places like germany that already had similar schemes are keeping them for longer. but given the peace time deficit was already the highest in peacetime last year and they are trying to rein in the public finances by raising taxes, that looks unlikely at the moment. what we are expecting is an emphasis on the cost-of-living. about 500 million pounds of giveaways expected in the coming days. manus: good to have you with us in the studio this morning. that is a potential solution, but the risks are rising.
you talk about the mismatch between skills and the jobs opening. there seems to be a lack of faith in government and rates of policy at the moment. it is quite a toxic mix. >> you still have that million or so people who are the last left on furlough. it is very uncertain what happens to them. it is not just furlough that is ending. it is also this rise, the temporary rise in benefits to the universal credit scheme. that benefited about 6 million people. ending the two measures at the same time piled pressure on finances, at a time when inflation is rising and growth is slowing. that means there is a real risk, the supply disruptions that we have seen of which the fuel shortages are just the latest symptom could combine risk for
lower household spending, weaker consumer confidence and stick the economy into reverse while widening the gap between rich and poor. manus: certainly a lot of issues at play. the governor andrew bailey talking about potentially using rate hikes before he ends q. week. that was to support the pound. thank you so much. the very latest on politics. that brings us very nicely to the pound. cable in of itself is more of a dollar story. sterling, i know we have the fx board. sterling is weakening across the board, against the euro, and it is that demise, it is about the unpredictability. the unpredictability of the pound losing credibility. once the credibility goes that you are not living in a stagflationary world, that is when the fx vigilantes come. dani: rochester pointing to the
idea that trading more like an em currency, this is something that adam cole said as well, that you have widening credit spreads and they are reflecting credit risk. rather than any sort of cyclical strength. that is a dynamic we would see in a developing economy. it might be too early to draw that conclusion, but it is notable you have a weakening pound at the same time we are seeing yields spike. manus: here is the point. andrew bailey and i kept looking at sterling, kept looking at cable, dropping, dropping, dropping. bailey sets the stage for rate hikes the end of qe. what happens to the fact that rates are supposed to support the currency? if you look at the shorter end of the curve as well, martin was basically saying, the 10-year
government bond yield, in the u.k., we were back above the 1% level in of the u.k. good market. that is the highest in nine quarters. that did very little to support the pound, which says that there is a credibility gap opening up in the u.k. and volatility is moving away from the rest of the g10. dani: of course, andrew bailey as well talking about monetary policy can't fix the supply issues and especially with energy being a contributor to inflation, there is this big question, this credibility question of what can the boe actually do to keep inflation in check? manus: dani, let's take a quick shot of washington because it is going to be a very hairy couple of days. president biden is pitching his
manus: senate majority leader chuck schumer says lawmakers have reached an agreement to avoid a government shutdown, but the bill still doesn't address the u.s. debt limit and president biden's economic agenda still looks far from enacted. his own party could be the end of him. bruce einhorn breaks it down for us. good to have you with us. tell us about the deal that has been reached in the senate averting a government shutdown. is that important in and of itself? >> it is important because having the government shut down would not be a good thing.
nobody wants that. the fiscal year starts october 1. if they don't have a deal by then, offices start closing and that has happened a couple times before. it seems that chuck schumer has reached a deal with republicans that they will allow this vote to go forward. take off one item on his to do list. he still has quite a few others. dani: speaking of other items on to do lists, this drives home the point that it is so difficult when your majority is so slim. what does this mean for other economic pieces of bidens agenda? >> the other things coming up, there is the vote on the infrastructure bill. nancy pelosi has promised to the moderate democrats in her caucus that there will be a vote. the progressive caucus in the house has said, unless there is progress on the reconciliation bill, which has the rest of the biden agenda and it, don't count
us in, so we will see what happens. nancy pelosi has said there will be a vote on thursday. she is usually very good about vote counting, but this is a really slim margin. she only has a handful of votes to spare. dani: bruce, it looks like we might have had an issue there. go ahead, manus. manus: we are back. a moment of technological glitches. tell our audience what it is. we have this split within the democrats. [no audio] >> i lost you again. i can assume that you are asking about explaining -- manus: forgive us this morning. we have a little bit of technical problems here, bruce. we are going to pause for a
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♪ francine: good morning, everyone. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. one hurdle down. chuck schumer says a deal has been reached to avoid a government shutdown this friday. no need to fret. leading central bank chiefs trying to reassure markets over inflation.