tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 11, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
>> we are starting to get signs we are getting back to one labor market but it is not the way it was before the pandemic. >> i think wage growth is as important as the payroll report. >> the stagflationary environment will tolerate the higher degree of inflation. >> i think chair powell set up for possible disappointment. >> it is all about the hikes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: let's get this trading week started. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on bloomberg tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro to gather this morning with -- together this morning with kailey leinz. tom keene, the beginning of the end of easy money. tom: the beginning of the end of easy money.
jonathan has no clue. it is a different day. after the jobs report, this gives us a great day to set up the economics moving. also i'm seeing inflation front and center. jonathan: i'm seeing crude front and center. hikes in norway, brazil, south korea, new zealand, will the bank of england join in? tom: this goes off of the jobs report, full employed america, fully employed united kingdom. central bankers are under pressure not to be legislators. the backdrop is there going into this with the fiscal impulse that is drifting away. tom: let's talk about the growth import -- jonathan: i have more people downgrade growth expectations that upgrade. goldman joins in. kailey: yes they did for 2021 and 2022, the thesis consumer spending will be delayed due to the ongoing pandemic and the
pullback in fiscal policy. we are talking about delays, not necessarily growth lost. they also saw the making up for it in 2023 and 2024. jonathan: can we get an early guest promo? jan hatzius, 7:30 eastern time. tom: he has migrated down. he has been adjusting into this and the vector that all of our listeners and viewers are worried about is the vector of q4 and then the next year he has little bit of optimism versus some of the caution right now. jonathan: the chief economist from goldman sachs 90 minutes away. your equity market is negative on the s&p 500. negative around one third of 1%. the treasury market is closed today. we did close north of 1.60 on friday. in the bund market yields are higher. in the fx market, your euro is little bit weaker.
there it is. $81 on wti. kailey: the highest since 2014, feeding into the stagflation fear that may be in this market. we have to talk about what is going on in washington, d.c. the imf and world bank meetings will kickoff. it will not be around the commentary around the global economy. the undercurrent of the meeting will be the scandal shot -- surrounding the managing director and the ethics concern involving her time at the world bank and the actions she may have been taking around china. we could get a decision on her fate as early as today. that would be pulling focus in washington, d.c. also happening, the annual meeting of the institute of international finance. among the speakers will be jamie dimon and brian moynihan. interesting to get their commentary on the financial landscape. what the environment is like for banks, especially head of earnings.
jp morgan kicking things off wednesday morning. at 6:00, charles evans will be speaking. what will he say about the jobs report and whether or not it constitutes substantial further progress and what will that mean for the november taper? anything we hear out of the fed will be key for investors. jonathan: thank you very much. the nobel prize in economics in 2021. breaking news. tom: this is stunning. i never do the game of guessing who it will be. all of us would get very emotional. this is stunning to see david card when the nobel prize with the memory of alan krueger. jonathan: we will build on that through next couple of hours. the latest winners of the nobel prize in economics in 2021. your equity market a little bit softer this morning.
we have to turn to jeff henriksen, university of oxford associate fellow. i want to start with this. it looks like you need to stay in equities. at the same time you're worried about higher prices. what you do? jeff: that is exactly right. you were talking about the goldman note early this morning. another goldman note i thought was interesting -- number one word that is coming up was the question around stagflation, which i think is interesting because i think inflation will run hotter and for longer than policy makers believe. at they'll -- i think stagflation is a low probability event. policymakers and markets had been wrong on inflation. they were probably angry on the 2008 2009 scenario and conditions are different. i think the base case scenario are two things. inflation will run hotter and longer.
two, nominal bond yields on the 10 year. double-digit nominal gdp growth and an environment that favors equities. we think you still need to be in equities but you need to build a portfolio despite inflation running hotter and longer than people expect. we still think stagflation is a fear and a low probability event. tom: in honor of the nobel prize winners, how do we have a successful labor economy if we do not have a real wage growth? jeff: a great question. is a problem that has plagued the united states for a long time and it seems to still be plaguing the united states. i do not have an answer for that. the answer would be if you got real wage growth it would be very inflationary and would come through company earnings. there is a disconnect between
the price of the financial assets in the future income that has to pay for those assets. that will have to rectify itself over the next period of time for the united states economy to keep moving down the path that needs to be moving down. tom: this is so important when you look at the markdown from jan hatzius. i do not understand how you get a boy and consumer when you have negative real wage growth. kailey: the idea is you have a lot of pent-up savings during the pandemic. that still means the consumer balance sheet is looking quite healthy. jeff, with the absence of wage growth, how consumers will be tolerant of the higher prices they are facing. i know we x out energy when thinking about core inflation, but to higher prices have an economic impact? jeff: of course they do. it is a tax on spending power.
i would not underestimate the amount of pent-up savings. private-sector balance sheets are very healthy. that will continue to fuel spending. i think that is something that should not be underestimated. i am a big believer that capitalism solves these problems and the pricing pressure you are seeing, they will resolve themselves. it might take longer than people think. i think we are focusing so much on the here and now and not thinking further down the road. a lot of these problems will work themselves out. the goldman note this morning said the same thing. it is a temporary hit. 2023 and 2024 would make up for it. that make sense to us. kailey: talking about the supply chain issues companies are facing in the here and now, does that not create an earnings problem? jeff: it does.
when you think about the multiple, companies cannot have that cost through. their margins are eroding. that is problematic for equity valuations. if you get a commensurate increase in interest rates, you have a higher discount rate on those earnings. when we think about the companies we want to own, we want to own situations where the earnings are so misunderstood and the growth opportunity is so misunderstood that the multiple is of less importance. what we have been saying when you look back five years from now on the investments we are making today, we want the factors to of been the growth opportunity, the misunderstanding that existed today, not the macro factors that ended up playing out. the focus on finding misunderstood situations -- tom: how does technology fold into those misunderstood information? we saw the emerson electric idea today with two software
companies and a merger. how does technology fold into finding the alpha and those misunderstood situations? jeff: i think the total addressable market for a lot of smaller companies that are in the technology space is misunderstood. that is .1. .2, and i have said this a lot, a lot of the reinvestment opportunity these companies are making are actually happening through their p&l. they are driving the earnings way down. sometimes earnings are negative. if you look at the businesses and say actually these are reaping benefits over longer time any recalibrate in you realize these companies are not nearly as expensive, i think finding those situations where the investment opportunity is not obvious and there is a misunderstanding, five years from now the misunderstanding is what will have mattered, not
inflation ran hotter for eight months more than we thought in the fed have to tighten sooner back in 2021. that will be of little importance. what will matter is you have the idiosyncratic thesis on the earnings potential in the cash flow generation potential. that is how we are looking. save yourself from the macro by focusing very carefully on the micro of every investment. jonathan: we have to leave it there. good to catch up. jeff henriksen. i have the press release for the nobel prize in economics. it is split, with one half going to david card for his contributions to labor economics. the other half going to their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships. tom: the whole thing goes to the late alan krueger. jonathan: coming up, mark
howard. from new york, this is bloomberg. leeann: economists at goldman sachs have cut their forecast for growth this year and next. the bank claims -- goldman expects 5.6% growth in 2021. meanwhile, goldman also predicts the equity market will continue to rally. report says investors will gain confidence that the current pace of inflation will not last. the u.s. has arrested a navy department employee and his wife for allegedly selling secrets on nuclear powered submarines. according to the justice department, the buyer was an fbi agent posing as a foreign official. the case involved cryptocurrency payments and a memory card hit it inside a peanut butter sandwich. hong kong's chief executive is
defending coronavirus travel restrictions. in an interview with bloomberg tv, carrie lam signaled the curve will stay in place for the foreseeable future, even while singapore allows more quarantine free travel. she says mainland chinese officials want hong kong to follow their own strict approach to wiping out the virus. in poland, nationalist leaders are slamming the opposition after the biggest antigovernment protest. the opposition leader accused the ruling party of trying to take poland out of the eu. the government called that fake news. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> i am confident what we need to do come into compliance with the minimum tax will be included in a reconciliation package. i hope it will be passed and we will be able to reassure the world the united states will do its part. jonathan: janet yellen speaking on abc. from new york city, good morning. tom keene, jonathan ferro, and kailey leinz. your equity market lower one third of 1% on the s&p. yields higher in germany. we are closed in the bond market stateside. in the fx market, the euro weaker. in the commodity market, $81.62. you have to go back to october 2014, the last time crude prices
for this type. we are positive 2.86%. tom: 80 to 84 on brent crude, i think that is a 5% move. jonathan: as you've said it is persistent. it is almost every morning, another 1%. tom: lots of persistent trends. let's dovetail this wonderful nobel prize announcement into what we see in washington, which is jobs is everything in politics. emily wilkins joins us with bloomberg government. the thien over the weekend -- the theme over the weekend is a divide between the liberals and the moderates. the progressives taking the high ground. the senator from vermont being more than vocal. they're always facing pressures from labor. explain the labor job market pressure all of these politicians face as they going to tough decisions. emily: politicians are paying
attention to the jobs numbers that came out of friday, they're paying attention to inflation, they're paying attention to a lot of things. one of the things on lawmakers minds is the upcoming elections. 2022, and what they're going to have to do to win in those elections. is he progressives saying if you look at the policies that president biden has put forward in his social welfare and tax plan, the reconciliation bill, they are really popular. you see more moderate democrats saying if inflation continues to rise and we are passing this big spending bill, that could work against us in the elections next year. lots of debate and lots of questions about what things will look like. how high will inflation go. will it rise and fall as the white house is predicting? a lot of people keeping their eyes on the numbers. very few can say what it will look like. tom: how important is the redistricting and the
gerrymandering to what the democratic party's future is? emily: incredibly important. everyone in washington is keeping their eyes on what the state governments are doing. congress can only sit here in washington and watch what the state governments are deciding in terms of where the lines will be drawn for next year. if you break it down, if you look at how many state legislatures are controlled by democrats, how many by republicans, republicans have more control. that is expected to help republicans in the midterms. republicans only need to gain five or six seats to take the house back from democratic control. redistricting is a big way they are looking to do that. jonathan: as we look -- kailey: as we look forward to 2022 into divided democratic party, what to the need to accomplish to keep a firm hold on control in congress? emily: part of what democrats are up against his historical
precedent. if you look at the midterms for when a president just gets into office, they are usually much better for the other party. from a historical perspective republicans are supposed to do well. when you talk to democrats and say how you plan to counter this, they talk about delivering for americans. they talk about the social welfare and tax plans, they talk about doing things such as childcare, expansion of health care, taxing the wealthy. this is why it is so critical that democrats come to some sort of agreement on president biden's plan and how they move forward. if they do not, they not only go back to voters in a year that is going to be historically much better for republicans, but also republicans will be able to go back to voters and say what did you get under democrats? they had two years of complete control and were unable to pass multiple bills. you should be giving us a chance. kailey: mitch mcconnell wrote a
letter to president biden on friday saying we will not be helping democrats again with the debt ceiling. they extended it until december 3, but that is that. the democrats have to figure it out on their own. what are the options on the table assuming no republican support? emily: right now it seems like one of the easiest options for democrats would be to go ahead and pass it via reconciliation. they do not need republicans. the issue is that for reconciliation they cannot just suspend the debt limit to a certain date in the future. they would have to say what they are raising the debt limit to and you can bet that number would be appearing an attack ads over the next year as campaigns get underway. democrats are looking for other options. there has been some talk about adjusting the filibuster, that process that requires 60 votes in the senate. maybe if he could only do it for the debt limit with 50 votes, just the majority of lawmakers.
that has been discussed. then there are more out there ideas, things such as having the treasury secretary be the one responsible for raising the debt limit. there is legislation to do that. it seems to be floating around, the discussion of the $1 trillion coin the u.s. treasury could meant, although janet yellen said that would be a ridiculous idea. tom: the success in the coming weeks will be mentioned by democrats winning, republicans winning. one of their templates, emily wilkins wears michigan state green this morning, michigan state killing it in the big ten. what is the legislative path, what should our viewers and listeners look for in the next six weeks that is a victory for the democrats? emily: democrats have a lot of things to do in the next six weeks. they have kicked many cans down the road. ideally for democrats, 6-0 looks
like getting the reconciliation package by october 1, that means the bipartisan infrastructure package, it means figuring out the debt ceiling before thanksgiving so we did not start talking about the potential of a default, and it means passing government funding to keep the government open after december 3. are we expecting that to happen? not really. we have seen this story play out time and time again in d.c. they can gets kicked early december and late december and then we are all here on christmas eve with the pressure on lawmakers to wrap up things before they go home for christmas. jonathan: i will not be there for christmas eve. emily, you might be. i am sorry. the can gets kicked and it might be getting kicked again. tom: if you look at the can moving into 2022, you move right
up against the politics. i want to emphasize, it is an odd columbus day. it is a columbus day with a huge news flow. jonathan: a big week ahead. earnings season kicking off with j.p. morgan. that starting on wednesday. your equity market negative one third of 1%. from new york city, on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪
jonathan: off the back of the weakest weekly gain on the s&p 500 since august. -16 on the s&p. down .4%. on the nasdaq down five. on the russell down .4%. the u.s. bond market is closed. wti and brent. you have to go back to october 2014 the last time wti was this high. $81.56. right now brent crude with an 84 handle. this contributing to the conversation around inflation. whether it should or should not as a separate debate. this is what it means right now in the u.k.
we have heard from the chief economist, we've heard from governor bailey. we've also heard from an official. they are all talking about the potential doing something with rates. we will get to the yield curve in the u.k.. what you see the bigger move? you he a move through the whole curve. up another five basis points on the u.k. two year. tom: the curves are dynamic, but have we seen the natural gas surge and then the pullback? where did that fall through the weekend? is natural gas still large in europe? jonathan: it has been a story. the energy part of the issue is still there. whether this should contribute to a central bank next move is a very separate debate. it is a debate we are having in this bank of england is responding to this in a way the fed and the ecb and the boj is not. jonathan: this is really
important -- tom: this is important. you are seeing different nations imply a different approach. i wonder how the buddhist bank reacts as they advise madame lagarde. jonathan: i'm seeing norway, i'm seeing south korea, i am seeing them hike interest rates. i'm thinking about the bank of england may be joining them. the big news for most people remains that the ecb, the federal reserve, the boj, the big three with massive balance sheet expansions supporting this market, they have not folded yet in the same way. you're not having the congress asian about higher rates and the ecb like you are at the bank of england. tom: you are not seeing it. this'll be something to set up for the week. earnings part of the story on wednesday. right now we are well-timed to achieved one of our great labor economist. she is inquisitive, out of the michigan shop.
claudia sahm joins us. knowing it is a day of celebration in her world, which is labor economics. we want to stay on theme but if i look at david card and alan krueger, i have to say this is a day of the minimum wage. full their work into the observation amazon has to give out $18 an hour to find someone today. claudia: for these nobel winners today, congratulations. i agree. we go back to the pathbreaking work david card and alan krueger did in the early 1990's. it was very careful, empirical work. go out in the world and see what is happening in states that raisman among wage and states that do not.
a lot has happened in terms of research since then. it raise the questions that you raise wages and do not lose out on business, it is not bad for the company. normally we would say this is going to be a problem for employers from a problem for businesses. they found in one case -- there's a lot of debate about the effects of minimum wage, but it opened up a conversation, let's get past our models and see what is happening. tom: and credibly acute mathematics, also working out with alan krueger, what this comes down to is the reality right now. i've a question on local economy -- local economics. his amazon, target, costco, are they the marginal price determinant of the wage in local economies? claudia: this is a trend we have
seen for decades. this goes beyond covid. we have local labor markets where there is a dominant employer. amazon is a big company in terms of customers buying things. amazon can be a big employer if you're in an area that has one of the warehouses. i grew up in indiana. when i go home they're all kinds of warehouses being built. they tend to pay above the local wage, but then they have a lot of bargaining power to the workers. that can lead to real problems, not just in terms of wages. working conditions. we know from a lot of people who have worked in these warehouses, it is not an easy job. tom: you wonder if this is a new form of unionization, the dominance of these companies setting the dominant wage. jonathan: let's build on some of this, the contribution of card and krueger to the real world.
claudia, a quote of yours. i want -- you are referring to larry summers, he is something as a roadblock to achieving that goal. that was in an interview with politico magazine. why do you think that? claudia: this is not about larry. it is about the change that needs to happen in economics. of a generation of economist, particular macro economics, there is i have a mental model, i have a way the world should work and i keep going back to it. larry did an interview and he was clear i do not have a model. he has an intuition from years of experience watching the economy, but the real contribution of the nobel prize today is to say let's step back, let's get the data, let's look at the world and not do introspection. it is too hard and can lead you
astray if you are doing that from the ivory towers in cambridge, massachusetts. larry just happens to be a flag bearer of the old guard. particular in this crisis, particular in the way different groups of people, marginalized workers, the ones who end up looking at amazon, they need economists to be looking at the data, not sitting back and using past experience, using intuition to make decisions. that is the concern i am raising. jonathan: what is your advice to students of economics right now who are just starting out, and for policymakers at the federal reserve who've been conditioned by everything you just said? claudia: economics is all around us. it is not just listening to what the fed will do, what the markets are doing. a big debate that is happening that is using the tools of the
prizewinners today or the debates about what is causing the labor shortage, how important was unemployment insurance and the holding back of workers. there's a lot of debate on friday about not seeing big numbers now that early september those benefits expired, and they are using those methods because we saw different states roll off their benefits at different points this summer. these tools have been refined, but economists are out there trying to answer the question about people, about labor markets. policymakers need to know so they can make decisions. kailey: labor market participation has remained stubbornly low. is that transitory as we talk about so many shortages, or is that something structural? claudia: i have said throughout
this, covid is the enemy of everything that is happening in our world and it is absolutely the case in labor markets. it is not the only factor. i think in the labor market, whatever problems we were living with before covid, those became so much worse. if you think about before covid, there a lot of parents that struggled to get the childcare. it was often extremely unaffordable in areas of the country like where i live outside of washington, d.c. then we have covid. it becomes harder and less reliable and parents are concerned about it not being safe. the decision that was always hard, you have the one wage earner it would make less wages, you have her stay-at-home order she go back to work? that get so much worse. we saw a lot of parents drop out of the labor force. one of the disappointments on
friday was schools are reopening , it is rocky because people have kids get sent home if we have a covid exposure, women did not come back last months. september was supposed to be one of the big ones. that is just one example. kailey: is what you're saying helping make the case for the social policies on the table in terms of longer-term economic spending in congress? childcare is included? claudia: we are at the points where we have seen this in so many places. the labor market in general, low-wage workers have a lot of problems in terms of what they were able to bargain for before. let's fix those. this crisis has amplified and made it so obvious the inequality in our economy are holding us all back. congress has not done future looking long-term investments in the country for a long time, and
frankly it is absolute frustrating to see the debates about how many trillion dollars -- we have a lot to do in this country and i think congress does not have a lot of practice at getting it done. jonathan: claudia, we have to leave it there. we appreciate your time. claudia sahm of the jane family institute and a wealth of experience at the federal reserve as well. i want to bring up southwest. this airline in america had to cancel 27% of its flights in the last 24 hours. it is -1.8%. there is a separate conversation but i wonder whether it is related. pilots at southwest pushing back against a vaccine mandate. tom: this needs to be reported out. it is sketchy. is this a vaccine protest? jonathan: we do not know. 52 .95 on southwest. coming up, joshua sharfstein
joins us next. from new york, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: i am leigh-ann gerrans. the price of oil went over $81 a barrel yesterday. the highest level in seven years. it is up 30% since mid august. the global power crunches boosting demand for oil. in the u.s., merck is seeking emergency use authorization for a pill that treats the coronavirus. that brings the drug closer to becoming the first oral antiviral treatment for the disease. studies found it cut the risks of hospitalization by about half. merck makes the pill with its partner ridge back. three academics at u.s. institutions have won the nobel prize for economics. david card and two others were
honored for their work analyzing labor markets and natural experiments. the royal swedish academy says the three demonstrated that many of society's big questions can be answered. u.k. is headed for a fight with e.u. this week over border controls in northern ireland the u.k. brexit minister will ask for a significant change in the northern ireland protocol that governs post-brexit trade flows with ireland's. the eu will not renegotiate the agreement but says it is willing to make adjustments. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> a very busy week or two coming up with vaccinations for five to 11-year-olds, boosters for other age groups, so it will be an interesting couple of weeks to tell what the rest of the fall and early winter will be like in terms of our covid-19 vaccination campaign. jonathan: johns hopkins professor and virologist there. tom keene, jonathan ferro. kailey leinz. lisa back with us tomorrow. -.5% on the s&p. yields higher in germany by four basis points to -11. we start to have that conversation about the road back to zero. u.s. bond market closed. the fx market euro-dollar 1.1565. up almost 3%, 81 point $66 on wti. the highest since the back end
of 2014. tom: oil front and center. the metrics i use is aaa unleaded. it's set at a rather low 3.18. i would calculate 3.58 a gallon is where the pain sits in. on to covid, where i sit things are getting better. where i sit is not the rest of america. it is a world of vaccine protest, whether in rome this weekend, in australia again, and others around the world. the oddity in america of possible vaccine protest by businesses and by their employees. joshua sharfstein joins us from johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. are you surprised by vaccine protest? joshua: i am not surprised given how polarized the pandemic has been over last year and a half. i think we have to realize that
when there are a lot of cases, people see the problem in front of them and are more likely to get vaccinated. when there are not a lot of cases, people wonder, do i need to get vaccinated. there is so much misinformation that keeps them from getting vaccinated. as we look to the future, the good news is it looks like we are on the right side of the delta wave. things look more optimistic going into the fall and winter. also, it may be people will feel less likely to be vaccinated because of that. we are going to be seen this and it might be industry by industry , particularly for industries -- tom: the chief medical officer of a given fortune 500 company says what should we do. how should business respond to vaccine protest? joshua: i've been on the phone
with some businesses and organizations. it is important to focus on countering misinformation. there is so much misinformation. i have done big town halls with employees, the questions come from truly out of left field. sometimes almost no basis in reality. one of the insights i have learned from experts in misinformation is people like me tent to explain it once and understand. the misinformation is coming at people morning, noon, and night. it is important for employers to be communicating different ways, different messengers, people their employees can relate to and be relentless because the misinformation is relentless. kailey: this is no longer just about adult. we are awaiting an fda decision on the vaccine for children later this month. cbs put out a pall over the
weekend that even among vaccinated parents 51% of them are willing to have their children get a shot. do understand that hesitation? joshua: it is a little premature to be making too much of those polls because we have not had a full airing of the data, a full discussion of the advisory committee. all we had was the claim by the company. i think parents are right to be saying let's take it one step at a time. just like with the adult vaccine, i think there'll be some people who jump out and want to vaccinate their kids earlier and some may be more in the wait-and-see camp. it will be really important for the fda and cdc not just to make a decision based on the evidence they have now, but to explain how they will get more evidence, how they will be able to share that evidence so people can see what is happening and build confidence with more people over time. kailey: is herd immunity still
an achievable goal? joshua: to the extent herd immunity means there will not be a lot of covid, i think we will hopefully get there, unless there is a big mutation in the virus. herd immunity does not mean no virus. it is not mean no risk and it does not mean there cannot be outbreaks here and there, for tickly with our pockets of people that are on vaccinated. i think the more likely scenario is we be living with the virus and hopefully will be living with a low level of the virus rather than a medium level. jonathan: have you noticed the messaging has changed? the commercials are much less about getting a vaccine and more about mental health? i cannot think of a single vaccine commercial i have seen from new york state over the past week or so. tom: i think there are subtle shifts. part of it is the impatience of people and part of it is legitimate protest. what is fascinating to me is how will this amend when finally we
get five-year-olds to 11-year-olds. i have to admit it, a seven-year-old descended on the house this weekend. it was an odd and beautiful thing. we try to trade the dogs for the seven-year-old, but that did not work out. i was confronted with what others like lisa abramowicz face each and every day. jonathan: doctor, have you noticed that? i see a lot more now about mental health that i do about get a vaccine. joshua: i have not particular notice that, but i'm not watching tv in new york. i would say mental health is extremely important. this pandemic has affected people in semi-different ways and is difficult in semi-different ways. a vaccine is a path to a fewer cases which will hopefully help everyone's toll health. jonathan: dr. joshua sharfstein of johns hopkins bloomberg
school of public health. that is a change. mental health has been a massive issue in the last 18 months. the priority come the absolute priority has been to make sure we stay-at-home, we stop socializing in the same way. that was the start of all of this. it has been a real change. tom: there has been a real change. it has just gotten colder in new york and we are starting to think about a different month. i am looking at the child vaccines. as we have a nobel prize today we also have a changing of the guard in private equity and entrepreneurship in investment going back to 1976. george roberts and jerome goldberg started a firm called kkr. jonathan: one of the k's and one of the r's stepping down.
>> we are starting to get some signs that we are getting back to one labor market, but it is still not back to the way it was pre-pandemic. >> i think wage growth is actually as important as the federal report. >> the stagflationary environment, they are going to tolerate the higher degree of inflation. >> i think chair powell already set up for a possible does appointment. >> i think the market has essentially priced in the start. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: big week ahead. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. your equity market down 23, negative zero .5%.