tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg October 11, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
disruptions at southwest airlines have moved into a fourth day. the carrier has canceled more than 350 flights today. 10% of its daily schedule. that comes after the airline scrapped 30% of its flights yesterday. the disruption started on friday, when severe weather in florida kicked off cancellations. the coo says the company needs more staff to avoid more problems. british officials are concerned a lack of pilots could slow down a rebound of flights to pre-pandemic levels. double the usual number of pilots retired during the time when most trouble was banned. the u.k. eased entry rules recently in a bid to boost tourism. the singapore airlines website was temporarily down over the weekend following a surge in demand from flights after the
city state announced a plan to open up more quarantine free travel. many people are looking to leave singapore for vacations. the website is back up, but the airline says it's seen high demand and may take longer to respond to customer queries. in austria, departing conservative leader -- the departing conservative leader was replaced by the new chancellor. he is the leader of the people's party, but faces criminal charges in at least two investigations. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> is 1:00 p.m. in new york. i matt miller -- i am matt miller. here are the top stories we're following for you. commodities have the attention of investors today. brent crude, rallying. approaching $85 a barrel. right now at $83 any four cents. the surge in energy crisis is adding fuel to the debate to whether inflation rushers will be transitory or they might derail the economic recovery pivot supply chain bottlenecks remain an issue for the recovery. we dig into where things stand now, just two months away from the key holiday shopping season. merck six emergency use authorization -- seeks emergency use authorization for the covid-19 treatment pill. let's take a look at what's
going on and markets. we've got some real movement here in crude. i just showed you the nymex crude. we saw the level. that is the brent contract. this is the wti contract. the s&p 500, not really moving right now. the u.s. bond market is closed for the columbus day holiday today. stocks are still open. the dollar index, rising a little bit against its pe ers. we saw the euro and the pound gaining against the greenback and losing ground against the dollar. bitcoin on the other hand is gaining ground in dollar terms. more than $57,000, the cryptocurrency approaching once again a record territory.
elsewhere in finance, we've seen a changing of the guard at one of the most influential private equity firms in the world. kkr founders, stepping down to make way for their successors. this is a big deal, especially for old people like me, who remember these titans from the barbarians at the gate. >> you definitely have a new generation over at kkr that's waited a long time to rise even further. the leaders were really elevated in 2017. ever since then, the stock has tripled of kkr. making them ready for today, when they are becoming co-ceos of the firm covered certainly a management transition a long time in the making. you also have another major move over at kkr. they are going to eliminate their controlling preferred stock class. they are transferring into a one
vote per share system, which is intended really to bring more investors to the firm as they continue to change, become more situational lysed, and really make this that more institutionalized, and really make this a next step -- make this more institutionalized, and really make this a next step. matt: both of these guys have been working there for a while. obviously this has been on track. this is the last generation to handed it over. we've seen this happen at apollo, at other big private equity shops. >> we can't even spend the day without hearing from the different private equity firms, the new people they've hired and the new businesses that are standing into kkr means more net worth, the business is expanding more, infrastructure, private credit. you have one leader taking over at apollo, at carlisle, and
blackstone at the helm, but john gray is number two, pretty much a clear successor there. blackstone mind you is more than double the size of any of its peers in terms of. market cap it's the first year blackstone surpassed goldman by market value. you have this major run-up of all the other firms as well. matt: and they are getting into a lot of other businesses. you pointed out and we were speaking on bloomberg radio earlier, that we heard apollo talking about defi. but crypto. >> in the crypto universe, it is not a signal that apollo is going to be diving straight into buying cryptocurrencies. but when apollo says it's thinking about de-fi, it really jogs your imagination in terms of what's possible for apollo to be lending -- it is what you would think of as peer-to-peer
consumer, from apollo to a corporation. to what extent in the future that might this intermediate the banks. we've seen all these players do that in some places. underwriting credit. kkr has a huge capital markets division, credit markets more broadly, syndicating loans directly to large firms. when you think about de-fi and apollo, that's what it could mean. they have already invested in blockchain companies. these are a lot of themes in finance starting to converge, matt. matt: you spend a lot of your time in private equity, in hedge funds land, but even the plain vanilla banks have done really well this year. i think the kbw index is up 40% year-to-date, more than double, the s&p. these financials have really been some of the biggest gainers across markets this year. >> they certainly have here with
the banks have been doing extraordinarily well. -- they certainly have. the banks have been doing extra never well. jp morgan, near its records. kkr, up 60%. blackstone up even more than that. you have to look at the banks, the loan exposure, the fact that they are intermediary and underwriting this activity, but private equity, as the key for capital allocation, and those tech firms, like paypal i watch almost every day relative to bank of america, given how much you are seeing some of this transactional activity also move out of the banking system into the technology universe. so being a financial services company today is something different than it used to be. matt: i'm looking at blackstone also. 78% year-to-date. i'm glad you bring a paypal. we were talking earlier about elon musk. the richest men in the world. -- man in the world.
-- i'm glad you bring up paypal. you've got jeff bezos at amazon. these are non-finance companies know that these two titans run. the really big money on wall street is made by people like henry kravis. he is worth four or five times as much as jamie dimon. >> that's a great point as well. you see the people at the top of these private equity firms having made a lot more, in terms of accumulation of wealth. they are only paid more -- we talked about this earlier as well. the private equity exec at its are the most highly paid talent on wall street -- executives are the most highly paid talent on wall street and have the most net worth. it takes a long time here very few bankers have become billionaires on wall street. -- it takes a long time. there a few bankers have become billionaires on wall street. we also see the corporations
gaining a lot in terms of assets and management feed off those assets. matt: thanks very much for joining us on the most read story of the day. are a wall street reporter out of new york city. the team at goldman sachs, seeing slower u.s. growth for the rest of this year and into next year as well. what does that mean for the fed's rate hike outlook? that is still ahead. plus crude oil prices continue your steady march higher. we saw earlier the wti over $81 a barrel, brent almost $84. all of that and more, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
at the next meeting. that is going to take a longer middle of 2022. where is growth, where is inflation? the whole forecast growth it is much more moderate. and inflation is on its way back down to something like2% -- in that environment, i don't think they are going to move directly to rate hikes. matt: that is goldman sachs' chief economist speaking earlier on bloomberg surveillance. investors are going to be watching for the latest data on u.s. inflation, when cpi is announced. take a look at the forecast for u.s. gdp and cpi in 2021 and 2022. the white line is this year. right now forecast at 4.3%,
that is the inflation in the top panel. in 2022. 3% for inflation next year. in terms of gdp estimates, you can see they are coming down a little bit. this is something that jan was just talking about that goldman sachs is forecasting. others are on board. now looking for 2021 gdp growth at 5.9%, 2022 estimate is 4.1%. goldman sachs says that will be made up with gains in 2023 and 2024, but forecasting is much more difficult for the right in the future -- the more further out in the future that you get. joining us is dana doria. what is your view on growth and inflation? it seems like the street in general right now is increasingly more concerned about inflation and lowering,
rationing down growth expectations. >> that's definitely in line with what we are seeing as well. even consumers are more worried about inflation than unemployment. it's definitely -- this idea that it's going to be transitory, we have moved away from that. in certain parts of the economy for sure. obviously what's going on with oil is pointing to that, but also within the labor market. you are going to have to expect price increases to stick around in certain sectors for a good period of time at this point. matt: was the big jobs myth, the second in a row for you, a real disappointment? >> information we are seeing is not surprising. you do have this now we are open, now we are not.
that's exactly read. kids are not in school. you are also seeing the labor force participation decreasing. more people now just going into retirement. covid is still a problem that is not going away. you have the un-implement rate not looking as bad -- unemployment rate not looking as bad because labor force participation is down. you are going to continue to see that, as we move out of the delta variant tissue and get over the covid pandemic. matt: there was a paper last week saying that drop that we have seen in consumer confidence index is a concern and may even signal that we are entering a recession right now. i spoke with marcus chilmark, the chief economist at pine ridge investments today. he said, the difference this time is, there's so much savings out there, and this is a supply
constraint problem. and not a demand constraint problem. you see at the same way? -- do you see it the same way? >> i am on target. a lot of things go into this pivot productivity increases, we are started to see some of that now. after a year and a half of work from home and changed processes, we are going to start seeing productivity, in terms of stagflation concerns. can we sort of grow through productivity increases? there are headwinds for sure. shortages are going to continue to be a problem. energy is the open question for markets. what does the reopening in trade look like? will we get past some of what's happening in washington in the next couple of months and get on the other side? we have to get past it.
matt: dana, we will come back to you as we get more out of washington and this economy and the markets. thanks very much for joining us today. investnet co-cio. the boston red sox had a dramatic walkoff win sunday, beating the tempo bay raise. there was late game excitement. -- tampa bay rays. there was late game excitement. the game totaled over five hours. some critics call baseball to lengthy and too darn boring. the mlb is looking at ways it can change that. one of those things is possibly using robots. it's using the minor leagues as a place to experiments, as usual. businessweek what about this. the independent atlantic league is trying out new things, like moving the pictures
mounds, letting bettors try to steal first base, which would be fun, making the bases bigger. but the war -- but the robots is an interesting thing. using robot umpires to call pitches. it would maybe make the game a little bit faster. five hours is just too long for some people. even me. probably even tom keene to sit through a bespoke game. except for one his beloved rec or plane. merck is seeking emergency use authorization for its emergency covid-19 bill. plus booster shots, the flu season, and much more, with the director of the institute for vaccine safety at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health, dan salmon. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm matt miller. merck is seeking emergency use authorization for its covid-19 pill after a study found it reduced the risk of hospitalization by 50% for adults with mild or moderate covid. joining me is dan salmon. the director of the institute for vaccine safety at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. i want to ask about the antiviral bill for the covid disease as a first. how quickly do you think it will be deployed, and in terms of staving off debts? >> i can't speak with certainty about a press relief. but with the record is, they see serious disease and hospitalizations and deaths are cut by have. -- by half.
it could have a huge impact. matt: you can speak with certainty about vaccines. you direct the institute for vaccine safety. i wonder how you react, especially in america and here in germany, the vaccine hesitancy -- that is a politically correct way to call anti-vaxxers. it seems like it is a much bigger movement there than spain or italy. why is that? >> this has been an issue for a long time. before covid hit, the world health organization said vaccine hesitancy was the top 10 global health threat. we have certainly seen a lot of problems, which has really been the polarization of the response to covid. but we've got great vaccines. they are very effective, very safe. we have seen largely the pandemic is about him have --
is about unvaccinated people having serious disease. matt: is the bill possibly -- pill possibly a bad product to come into the market right now? if people see there is a pill that will keep them out of the hospital come are they less likely to get a jab? >> the pill reduces disease by 50%. that's fantastic. that's a really good thing. at the end of the day, i would much rather prevent getting this is dan reduce my chance of dying by have -- prevent getting this disease than reduce my chance of dying by half. most people would rather prevent than deal with a serious disease. matt: in terms of the third booster shot, how important is that for regular, healthy adults? i already feel pretty bulletproof after two, but there have been so many breakthrough cases, i think to myself, maybe
i can get out there and sneak another one in. is that silly? >> we just need more data. when he data for people that are immunocompromised and certain populations. we want this to be decisions based on science and evidence. and we are watching. this is where you need real-world data. once you've used the vaccine, how long it will take for immunity to wane. and the breakthrough cases we are seeing are much more mild. as we get more data, that could change. matt: we spent the last couple of weeks down in spain and italy, where we are looking at 30 to 40 cases per 100,000, and the u.s. you are looking at 300 cases per 100,000. how long is it going to take for the u.s. to get back down to more civilized levels? >> it is hard to predict pandemic infectious diseases. i think we are starting to see i
t. infectious diseases often come in waves. that is what we are seeing. hope fully with more people vaccinated, will stop the next wave, and time will tell. matt: thanks so much for joining us, dan salmon. director of the institute for vaccine safety at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. the school is supported by michael r. bloomberg. he is the founder of bloomberg lp and bloomberg philanthropies, and the big bus of this television channel as well. coming up, we did further into the moves in commodities today. they are big. crude, marching higher. just under $80.94, there's the nymex. this is bloomberg. ♪
yellen says she expects congress to follow through on a global tax deal. last week, 136 countries agreed on a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. secretary ellen told abc she is confident attacks will be included in a budget reconciliation package. -- the tax will be included in a budget reconciliation package. the fund's board will make a decision on the future of the bulgarian economist. to have been allegations of improper behavior during her previous job at the world bank. she has denied any wrongdoing. life in sydney, australia is starting to get back to normal following 107 days of pandemic lockdown. the vaccination rate for people over the age of 16 in the city is now at 70%. in the initial reopening stage,
non-essential retail stores, restaurants, pubs and gyms will be open to vaccinated patrons with capacity limits. new california legislation will force large retailers to have non-gendered toy sections starting in 2024. the law will help consumers shop and tamp down on gender stereotypes. the new measure will prohibit source from having traditional boys and girls sections but will require them to have a reasonable selection of toys and items in what is called a gender-neutral section. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: i'm matt miller. let's get a quick check of what is going on in the markets. we see a real turnaround. the s&p 500 at the top of the hour was little changed. it's now down .3%. . today is columbus day. the bond market is closed. but stocks are trading, and they are now falling. we continue to see a rally in oil. this is the brent, we were showing of the nymex earlier, both gaining right now. you've got the vix index rising to almost 20 right now, at 19.49. joining us to discuss the moves we are seeing in oil and other commodities is alix steel. alix, it's been incredibly fascinating to watch. what is driving this? alix: in terms of oil, what is
driving it most definitely is the weather, europe and the u.k.. in terms of the power supply, we know that natural gas -- that natural gas is having a hard time finding its way to europe. the wind didn't blow, so they didn't have alternative energy. what this does is make oil cheaper than natural gas. you are looking at potentially oil being at $190, $220 a barrel. it looks like a complete bargain at $80, $90. it's very much a demand story. the question becomes, when does the supply-side start kicking and? -- in? matt: what are end-users doing now? instead of using oil, dirty coal, i've heard reports people are reaching to diesel and kerosene. how on green is this -- ungreen
is this? alix: very. that's what we've learned with the power surge and shortage in the you can europe, we still need all the stuff, we still need oil and coal, natural gas. natural gas is not necessarily a dirty fuel, but it truly needs to become that bridge fuel. that was a popular phrase 10 years ago. then it got worked a little bit. it needs to be that -- wa rped a little bit. it needs to be that bridge fuel. we need to transition into solar and wind rather than forget about those steps altogether. in europe, they asked the coal plants to come online. in indonesia, the dirtiest coal price has now stored. matt: we make some of the dirtiest coal here in germany, or mine it. we have also just finished a huge pipeline, the nord stream 2
pipeline with russia. is this good for vladimir putin? is he able to take advantage of the situation and make more money from his gas? alix: he already is taking advantage of it. i think the real way that russia will win from this is -- europe was transitioning to more of a spot market so it would buy lng on the spot market versus long-term contracts which is typically 10-20 years. the reason why the suppliers like long-term contracts as they lock-in nice and juicy prices and use the money to build facilities and supply the gas. in the spot market, the suppliers do not get that easy money basically. so one take away from this is you have to lock in the longer term contract --s. maybe not 20 years -- longer-term contracts. maybe not 20 years. maybe five or 10. that is where a country like russia could really win. russia could be the savior figure of the natural gas marketing europe, but longer-term is going to be the solid long-term expense
-- long-term extended contracts that are going to be good for example. matt: one of my favorite stories this morning was by mark barton and jack f., world factories slow. i thought it was really interesting. these energy prices you cover, it becomes unaffordable for a lot of factories to operate with them so high. the production of everything from electric cars, to housing in china is getting tripped up. that is not good for the copper price, right? alix: no/yes. on the one hand, you have a plant is going to -- -- shut down because the input power costs -- a plant is going to have to shut down because the input power costs are too expensive. on the other hand, maybe you don't need them because a
property sector was falling out of bed in china for example. so you could make an argument that for the next 3-6 months, you were going to see demand destruction. so you're not going to see that bullish impulse and the copper price. we are going to see softness and prices. then you use that to buy the dip. we are still in this very structural super cycle for copper as we transition to electric vehicles. you can't make this green stuff without copper or even aluminum, saying. -- or even, say, aluminum. matt: that's a great point. many are saying the same thing. that essentially the demand isn't dead, we are still going to need all this stuff, so what's happening right now is almost like a compression in a spring. the bulls might be getting more bullish and copper. alix: exactly. -- in copper. alix: exactly. there is no substitution there when it comes to copper. because aluminum, this is a 13 year high as well. they are moving in tandem with the same thesis. then you can't do any thing about it. in the next three to six or
eight months, what happens to all of these prices? do they all take a break, come down? what happens if it is not cold where you are? you will see lng prices come falling down because the price action is so one-way right now. longer-term, you can definitely see this bullish set of. -- bullish set up. matt: think is so much for joining us, bloomberg's alix steel -- thank you so much for joining us, bloomberg's alix steel. let's get to the stock of the hour. copper stockpiles are low. the backdrop for the mac moran shares, they are up 14%. alix: it is 31% premium. that is how much the world's biggest copper mine is really charging european consumers. there are boosted copper shares. let's show you this chart, the gains we are talking about in
the last year pivot 99% gains, 40% last year. take a look at the other metals rallying. ahead of london's metals exchange week, where you have contracts negotiated. you do see green on the screen for metals. but that's not something a lot of the speculators from pulling out of the market. this is something to watch. if you start to see copper rally even more, you might see a bit of a bear squeeze. something to watch for. matt: definitely will be watching for that. and earnings are coming out. what are we likely to see? >> clear skies ahead when it comes to this company's earnings. you also want to talk about their eps and revenue. they are substantial numbers when we are talking about, in terms of percentages, they're going to see 183%, and revenue, 161%, those are some
pretty high standards for companies to live up to. matt: thanks so much, kriti gupta. coming up, container shipping rates are showing signs of easing, thank goodness. just as i'm looking to ship a fleet of motorcycles back to new york. we will discuss what this means for the global supply chain, as well as my garage. this is bloomberg. ♪
rates remain elevated as well. all contributing to the supply chain pain. joining us now is the chief scientist for dat. executive director for the m.i.t. center for transportation and logistics. i find this fascinating, chris, because the rate of change -- we are talking about containers that were going for two grand and are now going for 20 grand. how long can this hold off? >> that's a great question. so the big thing is the pandemic has been great for my profession. everyone knows what a supply chain is no. it is a thing stopping me from getting what i want. -- supply chain is now. it is the thing stopping me from getting what i want. we think the weight is today is going to stay how it is, but it will adjust. the question is, when will it start adjusting? matt: who is getting hit the hardest?
i imagine if you are shipping a 40 foot container full of microchips, it doesn't really matter as much as if you are shipping a 40 foot container full of trucks. because the big stuff is going to be a lot more extensive to ship. >> right. if you are shipping chips on a 40 foot container, you're probably in the wrong business. you want to send those by air. but that's article question. who is getting -- there are winners and losers in any crisis. i can tell you in the truck load market, there are a lot of money, especially on operators right now, because the elevation in the spot market, the one-off transactions. so there are winners and losers. if you talk to the big ocean carriers, it's been a good year. there are always two cents to the equation -- two sides to the equation. matt: what is the real problem here, energy costs to get the big ships across the ocean? they run on the dirtiest diesel. or is it labor?
does nobody want to go on the boats because you get -- you risk getting stuck out there? are there problems with the routes? we saw what happened with the evergreen, i think it was called. in that canal. what's the biggest issue? >> we look at this, and the enemy is us, consumers. not only did we want a ton of stuff to bring the pandemic for 12 months but we still want more stuff, the demand is outstripping supply across all elements of the supply chain. the manufacturers, the transportation, the retailers. until supply of the capacity increases and it settles down, it's not going to change. the demand can change much faster than supply. the real enemy here is us. we want stuff and we want it now. and it takes a while for it to come in. matt: so, when the dust settles,
and prices sort of come down in terms of the frequency rates, do we end up at a much higher level then we were into thousand 19? we are never going back to the levels we saw back then. -- in 2019? >> never say never. when you look at the trucking market, the trucking market has the contract rates, which are negotiated, steady, then we have the spot rates, those are the one-off's. there's a difference between climate and weather. the spot rates are like the daily weather. climate takes a long time to change. the rates are really exceptionally high. to give you an idea, spot rates from dat is about $2.89 a mile. the previous four years prior to the pandemic, this was a
dollars $.55. it is 75 -- one dollar -- this was $1.55 -- this was one dollar six to five cents -- this was a dollar six he five cents. -- this was a dollar $.65. -- this was one dollar six he five cents. 75% more. -- -- $1.65. it is 75% more. matt: is trucking the only way? >> rail is a great option, but you are not going to get rid of trucks. everything touches a truck eventually to get to the final location. we will not get rid of trucks. trucks are a big backbone of the whole transportation network. matt: that's my fallback career. chasing that long white line. think is so much for joining us,
the chief scientist for dat f reight and analytics. for what it's worth, one thing the supply chain will have to adjust for is a surge in private travel. on the commercial airlines, a number of private aircraft flights, not back quickly after a sharp downturn at the beginning of the pandemic. u.s. private aircraft are on pace to be the highest since the industry's peak in 2007. it's impossible to get a private jet quickly. if you put an order in now and you wanted in six months, the many fracture -- the manufacturer's going to laugh you out of the showroom. about two thirds of business jet operators plan to fly in more hours next year than in 2021. coming up, covid curbs. hong kong's leader defends her
matt: i'm matt miller. carrie lam backed down and defended hong kong's cobra travel restrictions despite the easing of singapore's. lam says she did not want hong kong to be china's weak link. >> from the mainland perspective, the practice is adopted in hong kong -- the practices adopted in hong kong should be as aligned as possible with the mainland practices. but they also accepted that we are operating under a very different regime. so the discussions between the two sides are meant to find a way forward that is respect in the differences in the systems between the two places.
that could be assurance that we will not be sort of the weak link, in terms of covid-19 control. >> for hong kong to remain a financial hub, and has to be open not just to china, but the rest of the world. are you concerned perhaps that your competitiveness will be impacted? because singapore is opening up. and there's great can petition between the two cities. might hong kong lose its competitiveness? >> of course, i am concerned. we are working very hard to resume normal travel in a gradual and orderly matter with the mainland of china and overseas places. as a chief executive in hong kong, i am also duty-bound to protect my people. so, any fatality or increases in fatality will cause a major concern in society. so, in dealing with the public
of crisis, we have a lot of factors to take into accounts. it cannot just be a single factor of a financial center. coming back to financial centers, i think bloomberg knows better than everybody that we are doing very well. >> are among the worries the -- >> talk to us about what's happening with the anti-sanctions law. >> first of all, the anti-sanctions law is a piece of national legislation. so there's a mechanism for national legislation to be applied to hong kong by an actor of inclusion, by the national people's congress standing committee. secondly, nobody could dispute the extension of this law to hong kong if needed.
because this whole round of sanctions by the united states arose out of hong kong. i am a sentient officer. i am an officer being sentient -- i am a sanctions officer. i am an officer being sanctioned. of course, we will follow the central authority's direction to implement any anti-sanctions measures. the most important point is, i've been given to understand the anti-sanctions law is a toolbox at the national level. extending a toolbox to the hong kong administrative region, the central government will take full account of hong kong's unique status, as an international financial center. so the final point is, i have no timetable. matt: that was an exclusive interview with the hong kong chief executive. carrie lam.
i want to give you a quick look at what's going on in markets. it is not a boring monday to kick off this week. we have seen markets that were doing a whole lot of nothing at the top of the show turn lower now. the dow jones, down more than 100 points. the s&p 500, also down .3%. the nasdaq, down .1%. bitcoin -- fascinated to see it over $57,000, headed back into record territory. we will continue to cover all these assets for you. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg word news. a new report from the world health organization says climate change is the biggest health threat humanity faces. the study indicates extreme weather events are killing thousands and weakening health care systems where they are needed the most. the research says nine out of 10 people breathed overly polluted air and the burden of fossil fuels causes millions of premature deaths every year. president biden's chief medical advisor says infections in the u.s. are still too high for a return to normal. dr. anthony fauci told cnn to not declare victory 2 hourly over the coronavirus. daily infections have fallen to about 95,000, with more than 150,000 a day last month. three u.s. academics one the 2021 nobel prize for economics for an experiment that draws on real-life situations to