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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  October 20, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT

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as backers of crypto see it moving closer to mainstream acceptance. david: all of that part of our big market season. there is the proper to angle to the ever grande story, i think we are up 700 points in the hang seng property index. u.s. futures are flat. thermal coal futures and brent crude, $86, within 5% of looking at the 2018 i. yvonne: when you look over all that yields, those are picking up you have to ask, what are inflation concerns and supply chain issues? is that going to fuel the reflation trade? the u.s. 30 --year-old at -- the u.s. 30-year yield at 2.14. we are holding out around 634
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for your onshore rate, slightly weaker risk but bitcoin, we broke 65,000 that are just off that rate right now. j.p. morgan says it wasn't so much about the bitcoin futures, but that bitcoin could be an inflation hedge, better than gold. . >> on the upside for a few of these notes, some signs the fed beige book is suggesting a slowdown or moderation if you like. high expectations and the listing of short end rates, typical before production bond purchases take place, but not in this case and we are not getting a flattening of the curve when it comes to evergrande. yvonne: and when it comes to see
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the stock resuming trade, i guess it was a surprise, but not a surprise, given the deal to sell the property unit collapsed and now they have to struggle to raise cash because we have a lot of these 30-day grace periods. the dollar bond, those are expiring soon as well. there are more companies that are lying flat, using the evergrande story as an excuse to not find ways to raise cash and pay off bonds. david: i like that term, live flat. yvonne: leading end? david: when you are unemployed, there is less incentive to look for a job, let's put it that way. let's go to chief north asia correspondent stephen engel. why did this deal fall through? stephen: they couldn't come to terms, that is what their statements to the stock exchange are. earlier this week, we got wind the perhaps the deal was going
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to fall through, although perhaps authorities did not give the seal of approval. there is going to begin speculate -- going to be speculation. hobson put out a statement that said the deal fell through. evergrande investors are selling. it was already down 80%. it raises lots of questions because this $2.6 billion, selling a 50.1% stake in evergrande property services and i am using a euphemism, the lasting crown jewel of the evergrande would have given short-term relief for evergrande to pay contractors, suppliers, payoff wealth management suppliers, paid dollar bondholders, creditors. the 30-day grace period of the $80 billion coupon that was doing month ago is expiring within 48 hours.
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therefore, if creditors say we need our payments, that is a default. it just further increases the spiral downward forevergrande. >> we have 305 billion dollars of debt here forevergrant -- for evergrande, and it is guaranteed by evergrande at $200 million plus -- at $200 billion plus. what is next? stephen: we are just reporting on the on balance liability sheets that we know of. we talked about the jumbo bond, that evergrande through its real estate unit. this is the problem. and our bloomberg opinion columnist was talking about this black box of liabilities are evergrande acting as guarantor
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to other bones and liabilities that have added up. it brings the real question, what is next for evergrande? hidden in the statement of the stock exchange, their contracted property sales from september-october 20 plunged 97%, ok? so they are not getting that cash. they are not getting the cash from the proposed sale. it is a mess forevergrand -- it is a mess for evergrande. i am not going to predict what is going to happen. you can predict at home and in the office. david: stephen engel, chief north asia correspondent. to steve's point, i guess the market is regulated now. there will be damage to other regulated companies, but the rallies continuing, up eight of the 25 points now on the hang seng property index. reentering a bull market, who
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would have thought? yvonne: our guest is joining us to talk more. it looks like the market is at least trying to come to terms with the regulatory cracked out. should i assume the worst is over? >> the overhang has been with us for quite a while and we have seen over the last couple of weeks -- but asian investors are still looking for more confidence, and what this means for the chinese economy at large. from our perspective, we think there's going to obviously be a negative impact on chinese growth, but a lot of it seems to be in the price. having said that, we are shying away from re-engaging with emerging market equities at this moment, and for the global investors, we are still focusing on the u.s. and europe.
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david: anything in emerging markets you are reporting, everything? >> in southeast asia, some reopening trades seem pretty positive. malaysia, still looking at it from a bullish standpoint given the vaccination drive has been pretty positive. but most of the rest of the emerging markets, particularly in asia, korea, taiwan, chinese equities, from a macro perspective for the time being we think there are better opportunities elsewhere. >> how investable is china with all that is going on right now? it is a question we ask all the time and it has distinct parameters. cracks -- still i -- new light >> -- >> we have seen a sharp rise in
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asian equities given what is going on with chinese macro. we think it looks attractive. there may be some technical issues, especially as we see the market react, but from a six to 12 month perspective, yields are very attractive at this moment. so that is in the equities space. we are actually more focused on the bond space when we look at chinese investing, but being in multi-asset is really more the u.s. and other european markets that we think are a better place to be. yvonne: you mention for medium-term investors, chinese height yield looks compelling to you. what is most -- chinese hi yield looks compelling to you. what is most overpriced in the market right now? >> -- a short movie in the high-yield space. a lot of investors who don't
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have the capacity to hold on to a better market position tend to basically take the market lower and that creates an opportunity for long-term investors like us. and we think it is not necessarily mispriced from a short-term perspective, but the valuation looks compelling from a long-term perspective. >> nupar, from eastspring investments. su: the fed has added a voice to the call for tapering in september. coal spoke at the milken conference and denied that the fed -- a president told cnbc the central bank will not be raising interest rates anytime soon in the u.s.. president biden's pick for ambassador to china has taken a
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hard line with beijing over actions in the indo pacific. but asian-american strength and alliances give u.s. key advantages. longtime diplomat burns said he was skeptical about china on issues like 5g technology and ward the world should be worried about the beijing nuclear buildup. the united states fda has cleared the way for millions of americans to receive covid-19 vaccine booster shots. the agency approved moderna boosters for those over age 65 and younger people at high risk and approved a two-booster dose from johnson & johnson, which is a single-does seen on the front end for those older 18 and at risk. the fd also -- fda also approved a mix and match approach to allow any brand to be used as a booster. rio tino, kickstarting the
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company turnaround over the next decade. the ceo is starting a 50% reduction in mining operations by 2030. surging iron ore prices boosted first-half profits to a record. that said, rio has been dogged by operational setbacks and the fallout from destroying a 46 thousand-year-old aboriginal rock shelter. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm sue keenan. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> still to come on bloomberg markets, pat larkey joins us to talk about the government in for tervention on call. >> we discuss whether rising
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inflation is a factor. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ david: and we thought the bad news was over. fitch just coming out on the property sector, placing 29 firms under criteria observation , is that what it stands for? anyway, you look at the headlines and it sounds good. let's put it that way. yvonne: we are following breaking news out of northeast china, a blast is what we are hearing. china saying one person has been killed, 33 have been injured. this was a rescue, underway right now, but this is a blast in the provincial capital of a
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province. rishaad: just on the border there is welcome and looking at a gash. this is trickling income of the information. we will keep you updated. david: we will keep you updated on that, in the meantime, let's bring back our guest, portfolio manager at investment solutions at eastspring investments. one of the risks flagging for markets is premature central tightening. raising rates and the removing emergency stimulus is not going to reopen ports or make inventories reappear. our central banks about the titan for the wrong reasons? how do markets adjust if that is the case? ok. are you hearing us? >> yes, i am now. david: there we go.
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my question was, you have flagged premature central bank tightening as a key risk. you thick -- do you think central banks are tightening for the wrong reasons? >> not really. [indiscernible] david: we will try and get that sorted. i guarantee she is not trolling us. probably the internet. what are we talking about now? rishaad: whatever you want to, david. we can talk about what we have coming up, former goldman sachs -- former goldman sachs ceo lloyd leg find, giving us his view on cryptocurrencies. bitcoin, 65 thousand dollars breached for the first time. can we go from there? this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ david: welcome back to the shell. just enough -- to the show. bitcoin, under $67,000, giving back some of that. our index tracks broadly how the group is doing and we are up .4%, 67,000 dollars was roughly your high, 40 -- new life 41% over the past 30 days or so. let's get date since of why we are here? are we looking at mainstream acceptance? have a look. >> quite a rally. >> i think we will see new all-time highs on bitcoin every month. >> you look at a year ago, we were probably trading at $12,000, so it is crazy to think
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now we are at $66,000. >> i would think about buying it on a dip we get. >> it is getting the institutional adoption many have been talking about for years. >> when you get the large pension funds, it doesn't take much to push prices up 50%. yvonne: i love the tweet from bitcoin enthusiasts come october leads november, november leads to bullcember. let's get more now from our cross asset teams editor. what are we watching out for next? joanna:: a lot of people are going for the really bullish out like -- bullish outlook and $100,000. we just had it dip, it went down to $64,000. often come after you get these eyes on some sort of news, even
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with the coin-based listing or when futures came online in 2017, we did have a drop afterwards. there is a ton of enthusiasm at the moment, and then it can't come back. people do need to watch for that, but yes, this has definitely set the bowl -- set the bulls on fire. rishaad: it is almost evangelical, the way bitcoin enthusiasts talk about this cryptocurrency. is it in a sense affecting the whole crypto space? joanna: it is bringing other coins along. we have had a big run with solana, kara, some of the bigger altcoins, in the past, say, weak. -- week. the crypto market cap has a bed -- better -- has a record high as well, so it looks as if it is spreading to other coins as well. david: the etf, some are
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pointing to that as a high, and are pointing to inflation. tell us about etf trading and what is behind that? joanna: one thing that is interesting is that it looks like there hasn't been a lot of retail take-up. it looks like this could be institutions trying to get in, sensing an opportunity to get into an etf product they might've wanted for a while. but we will see if retail people do come in at some point. maybe they are waiting for other etf's or maybe they are waiting for other products, so that is something that has been pretty interesting. but we have seen whales buying bitcoin for the past couple of months, just buying bitcoin straight out and that has contributed to the bullish mood. rishaad: thank you, joanna ostergaard, luber cross asset teams -- joanna singer --
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joanna, bloomberg cross asset teams. you have to turn it up every month, in terms of 10% in fees, they could run 25%-10% annually and that the end of every contract, you don't get anything. you don't get a bitcoin. it is not like a oil future where you take delivery of the oil. so, is it an etf or a nondeliverable forward? yvonne: yeah, and you have got to wonder what is the value of buying an etf versus the value of buying bitcoin itself? hard to make that argument right now, given what you just said, but there are people who say it is better to get exposure in a different way. david: if your mandate is simply equity, and etf kind of does that for you. but he makes a good point, if they are not delivering, is that an ndf? but i guess that is what you
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have derivatives, right, simply to go out over the absence of anything that makes clear sense. rishaad: you get a picture of it and it is an nst. i have been boring everybody about this, i'm going to go to lloyd blankfein, doesn't knowing any crypto now but says he is open to it and says investors have to separate fact from opinion. of course, the former goldman sachs ceo. he talked to eric chester of bloomberg's "front row." ♪ erik: a lot of bright people think it has a bright future. i am telling you, i have a foor t and four toes in the old world, and it is not something i gravitate to.
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and i can think of a lot of reasons why it won't work. but i remember when they were optioning off cell phones and why would anyone need a cell phone? you drive your car up to a phone booth. who would carry that plenty thing? there are a lot of things in this world that have worked out awfully well. erik: you sound, for somebody who's to run a bank -- who used to run a bank, pretty constructive. lloyd: i ran a bank. you have to separate fact from opinion. nobody knows the future. i mean, there is also its of things. there are a lot of things that move in directions that i couldn't and wouldn't have anticipated, and no one else would have either. so, to just come out and say that a market that is already in excess of $2 trillion, that
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faces all these regulatory headwinds that a lot of people don't like, and enjoy being crushed, somehow, every day it doesn't look like it is forcing but on no day doesn't look like it is dying. erik: you own any crypto? lloyd: no. david: lloyd blankfein speaking with our eric shatzer. tokyo is headed into the lunch break, let's head to the board and check out the tailwinds being faced by these equity markets, to a lesser extent in tokyo. tokyo post, nikkei topics and dollar yen or .14 -- dollar yen 1.14. dav -- yvonne: coming up, the energy
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crisis facing china had whether beijing moves to tame prices will make a difference. this is bloomberg. ♪ moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at
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>> it is 10:29. i'm su keenan with the first word news. we begin with the u.k. and new zealand. the two countries have agreed to a trade deal, which includes business travel arrangements and reduced tariffs. it is a symbolic and political move for u.k. prime minister boris johnson, but government analysis estimated there would be no long-term impact on the british economy. to singapore, which will keep
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tight virus restrictions for about another month as authorities worn a record wave of infections threatens to overwhelm its health care system. the measure limits outdoor social gatherings to two people and makes work from home a default and will continue until november 21. the government will extend eight amounting to $476 million to keep businesses and people. apple will force unvaccinated corporate employees to test for covid-19 each time they want to enter an office. it stops short of a vaccine mandate. office staff will be required to take rapid tests once a week. as for retail stores, unvaccinated employees will need to test twice a week and vaccinated workers, once a week. south korea meanwhile is set to launch a home developed rocket on thursday.
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the rocket carrying a dummy payload is scheduled to lift off at about 4:00 p.m. local time on the country's southern coast. south korea sees the program faulting its competitiveness, while helping put more eyes in the sky is the north adds to its own arsenal. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. david: eight out of the 11 sector groups are up, led by energy. commodities also leading unsurprisingly. yvonne: taking a look at when it comes to thermal coal futures in china. we are a little bit down once again for a second day on the prospect of beijing weighing these intervention measures to try to tame and stabilize
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supply. also, they are trying to fight speculators out there as well. there is a lot of speculation out there whether this is going to last very long. given how the metals rally has taken a bit of apposite, but we see copper. >> let's get to our next guest. joining us from singapore, thanks for joining us. again, speculators are in the crosshairs in beijing, but that is surely less meaningful than actual rampant demand for coal actually? >> that is an excellent point you raise. the government is trying to do its best to balance the supply and demand. and i think it is more of a supply issue trying to meet demand because of the economy ramping up post-covid has ramped
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up so quickly, it is hard for the government to get enough supply to meet demand. as far as speculation is concerned, absolutely, they have raised margin rates on exchanges. rishaad: tell me here, we looked at the winter, there are a lot of reports that we have gotten over the energy crunch, but a couple are still suffering. but the winter is going to be really difficult here. >> one of the main things we have seen is that the winter has actually begun early this year. this year has been a little different. it started in mid-october and
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that caught some utilities by surprise. they had not built up enough stock for a number of reasons. it is quite difficult and i understand the demand patterns with the covid-19 resurgence in the economies, but having said that, there is still a lack of inventory right now in order to meet the winter demand. yvonne: a lot of people are wondering what intervention we could see from beijing. what measures could they take to stabilize the flight? is there a concern that the price tags are going to be reintroduced? >> price caps are on the table. a lot of price philosophy. it is up to the central government and the regional government to actually determine what those price caps will be as well as what profit margins the
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producers make. they are trying -- taking a firm stance. this is a way to really control that market price, which has really gotten out of control, probably the easiest way to put it, in the last 3-6 months. david: the other option, do you think a relaxation of some of these restrictions, do you think that is in play or is that too far of a probability to happen? >> i think that is a bridge too far to be honest with you. that is geopolitical. it is a supersensitive issue. a lot of people had hoped it might loosen up, but i think the market has dialed in that they don't think that is going to happen. in lieu of importing australian material, the chinese have looked toward indonesia, russia, and other markets to help
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supplant what they had not received from the australians, but that might have released a little bit of coal, but that is about it. i don't see them releasing or allowing any australian imports this year and possibly into next year, as well. david: can we be confident the peak in pricing is behind us? >> to be brutally honest, never say never. i think the one thing we are seeing in the market right now having looked at the bloomberg screen is that we are down 11%. on the january contract on the commodity exchange. what we are seeing now is a digestion of what these reforms are what these policies that the chinese have announced, the market is digesting that now. i don't believe we are totally out of the woods yet.
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we are still making our way into the high demand season, which is winter, and the cold weather really has not set in. it has just started. i would say it is a little early in the little premature to say that we have hit peak already. yvonne: this all goes and coincides with xi jinping and these ambitious goals to wean off dirty fuel, as well. how is he going to square the energy security needs with the commitment goals they have? >> it is a tough one. it is an excellent question. when we look at quasi-cleaner burning fuels and natural gas, when it comes to power generation, that only come rises -- comprises 5% of the generation mass. we cannot rely on gas to bail coal out. nor can we rely on wind, solar, and other renewables. i think a longer-term vision, there is ambition to continue to grow the renewable portion of their generation, but right now
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coal is king and it is 63% of their generation. therefore, you have to live with it. it can change overnight, but i think that is an excellent question. david: do you think this year is simply an aberration because there is also the covid factor in the reopening? >> i think it is a combination of things. we have had such a cold winter last year. we had a situation where it was uncertain because much to your point about covid and the uncertainty of the demand of file -- profile and how that affects the consumption of stocks and the need for the stocks, getting domestic stocks to the power generators, so really covid had a big role in this, but i would also say some ancillary factors were late -- some of the reforms the government had looked at in 2020, where they had closed 600 minds that had effectively
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closed about 150 million tons per year of production, so there were some structural factors as well, some capacity constraints. they were looking to take less efficient, more polluting units out of service and replace those with newer ones. it is a combination of factors. the other thing that has happened, we came out of a colder winter, we had lower stock levels, but the hydro has not performed as expected. i call this a combination effect. rishaad: are we now not just with call, but energy generally, are we seeing the pain which may be inflicted as we gradually try to go carbon neutral as it were and this is just the start of it and perhaps it may well continue? >> absolutely. i think lng is probably the easiest precursor to look at and when we think about lng, one of the biggest challenges that we
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have is we have an elevated asian price right now. u.s. gas prices are hovering at an incredibly high number. then we look at t tfn europe as well. all the gas prices are elevated because there is a lack of energy for the power consumption needs, so it is a precursor to your austin. i think that transition is going to lean on gas pretty heavily and that is actually good for the producers of gas, qatar, australia, the united states, and other countries. the challenge is the competition between europe and asia to get their hands on -- [no audio]
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yvonne: all right, thank you so much. great insights. sticking with energy, as well, we heard from a lot of corporate's. whether it is rio tinto after the debacle they had to deal with when it comes to that original -- the new ceo making a big pledge. bsg efforts from the energy players here. the key question is whether they can meet those. activist investors are really kind of pushing that. >> rio tinto. it is this transition that pat was just talking about here. yvonne: engine number one. so, we spoke with the ceo and
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she said she hopes the oil giant will change the business model overall. take a listen. >> what our hope is that exxon -- david: you guys were bringing up other companies. it brings to mind when a lot of these companies are refocusing their capex away from fossil fuels and all of them are doing it at the same time, it is in most like the call issue in china, you don't have enough capex going in anyway. periodically and perhaps more regularly, we will be coming up again shortages of whether that is coal or oil and i guess that goes into the goldman call of why they think oil prices might continue to move higher as the world shifts away from capex and capacity model. yvonne: in terms of the power
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crunch, there are signs of easing at this point, but they are still looking at potentially more pain to come with these winter months, as well. rishaad: electricity is the future, but it is how you make it and tesla, of course, that was a really bad gear change, but i'm trying to get to tesla. switching battery technology. we will look at what that means for the asian suppliers to the company. this is bloomberg. ♪ mpany. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: just checking in with southeast asia. having a look at how they are behaving themselves. there we go. vietnam. we heard about economic growth. talked about gdp expanding in the range of 6.5%. malaysia as well, just fractionally lower. the spending in malaysia. yvonne: institutional shareholders seeking a share placement.
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that has been extended. this was the big news out of yesterday. set to make a bid for the citigroup asia unit. david: asia-based suppliers of what tesla are what we are tracking. when you look at these third-quarter profit projections, it sees them being able to surpass that. you have supply chain issues. shifting to cheaper lithium batteries already tried over and china. what does this mean for the whole gamut of suppliers and companies within the value chain of tesla? let's bring in our bloomberg transport coverage. good morning from hong kong. who does this benefits the most? >> i think it certainly will
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benefit the makers of these cheaper lithium-ion batteries globally. we are seeing shares of korean battery makers falling this morning. tesla has a number of challenges it needs to address on the supply chain front and also the semi conductor shortage and one of the things that the cfo talked about this morning was the higher price of nickel some of the cost seven flowing through to the company. he was also talking about the clear on margins. it is going to be negative in the short-term and put it little pressure on margins. another hurdle tesla flagged was an increase in service wait times during the summer. when you combine all of that
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with the supply chain issues and the challenges in the labor market, there are number of things that could cloud the outlook in the near term. rishaad: tell us a little bit about it. >> shares of tesla fell about 1% and extended trading. they are up near 25% or so this year. someone say that lackluster reaction was not a surprise because the lower expectations have been baked in, but they did point to the process -- progress tesla is making on profitability. one measure of that is the automotive growth margin. that widened in the latest quarter, beating estimates. people are watching very closely on the supply chain front. broadly, this has been very well received. yvonne: we have plenty more
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ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: looking at shares of united airlines, actually fell. the company did post a lackluster fourth-quarter outlook. the ceo does see what he is calling an inflection point coming in january and told david westin at the airline is trying to boost its national capacity
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by 10% next year. >> dramatically impacted by the delta variant. while bookings bottomed out and we are on the road to recovery now, a lot of the fourth quarter was impacted. business offices that were going to open got pushed back to january. really, regardless of what the fourth quarter is, i think with the story for long-term investors is is 2022. we are optimistic. all the signs are positive and point to a good direction for 2022 on the cost front, but also an of the demand and revenue front as we look to the future. >> how much visibility do you have in terms of bookings? more specifically, leisure, as opposed to business. >> we are already seeing very strong leisure demand here in the united date -- states. our expectation is we look at the holidays, the holidays are
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going to be really strong. in the fourth quarter, there is normally a lot of business traffic. business traffic has rebounded to the level it was pre-delta variant, but it is not to the levels we expected. everything we hear and see from our corporate customers and our account is that we should expect more people in offices and a big inflection point in business demand come january. we haven't really seen the data yet because business booking typically happens a lot closer, but everything we hear, all the anecdotes we hear. >> as we all get back on airlines, is that going to look different? for the long run, could we actually change the configurations because we might not want to sit quite as close
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to one another? >> certainly we are reconfiguring our airplanes to significantly increase in the number of premium seats, but what is going to matter more i think is the change in the customer experience. we have seen a huge improvement in our net promoter scores as we went through the pandemic and that is continuing as we come out of it. i think what customers are going to notice more is the change in not just the products, but the customer experience and how they feel when they fly united airlines. there is an immense amount of pride at united for what we did, for those employees, what they did to get us through the pandemic, and the product and they are proud of it. and that is leading to much better customer service. >> you mention 2022. you are going to be bringing more capacity online internationally, but not domestically. why is that? want to be a big uptick in
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domestic travel as well? >> you cipro to big increase in domestic travel backwards. but as we look forward into the summer and beyond, i think the international market is going to be stronger, particularly to europe, middle east, and africa. the supply-demand balances different. there have been hundreds of wide-body long-haul international aircraft retired around the world. that means the supply demand balance is more balanced internationally. we expect next summer to be the strongest by a wide margin summer that we have had across the atlantic. if you look forward, it really looks different now that the border is open and people are allowed to travel back and forth to europe. rishaad: the united airlines chief executive there with david westin. we have a line coming through saying that tokyo has had to lower its alert level one of the medical system. aiming to ease restrictions on
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bars and restaurants next week as cases continue to decline. that is coming through from more than one news agency. yvonne: cheers to that. take a look at markets. we are looking at evergrande, double-digit losses after resuming trades. a lot of questions on what happens next when it comes to selling some of these prize assets they do have. seeing a bit of a relief that this deal has not gone through. david: against the backdrop of the property sector outperforming, entering the last 60 minutes of trade for the morning session in hong kong, still substantial gains on the back of largely a lot of positive news since we got word of banks relaxing mortgage rules and we heard from various chinese officials.
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the latest want to come out. certainly supportive of risk asset price coming back into these markets. there is plenty more ahead. keep it here. you are watching bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology" with emily chang. emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco. tesla is feeling the supply chain pain, announcing in its third quarter earnings that it will be shifting to new batteries globally. what does the strategy mean for the electric carmaker and the industry at large?


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