tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg November 2, 2021 10:00am-11:00am EDT
guy johnson. ♪ guy: tuesday the second. 2:00 p.m. in london, 10:00 a.m. in new york, 30 minutes into the trading day in the u.s. welcome everybody to "bloomberg markets." fresh record highs for equities. volatility in the treasury market is spiking sharply. alix: versus the vix, which really isn't. you are looking at things like communication services, real estate, and tack. that doesn't feel like animal spirit cyclical value traders. the s&p is up by 0.2%. you mentioned the bond market. we have seen worse in the last 72 hours, but we are seeing a steeper curve, and you are
seeing a bit of selling in the long end. all of this having a relatively positive impact on the dollar. the best performing currency in the g10 space aside from japanese yen. volatility in the bond market is up. which is so interesting considering we have central banks being a really big player. let's get to one of our top stories, the fed. the fed is kicking off its two day meetings today. overnight we saw the rba scrapping efforts with the yield curve. michael mckee, you are looking through all of this. michael: we have a picture of what happened. philip lowe and jay powell -- they did show up. anyway, the rba's experiment with yield curve control. they say we will not let yields get above this level here, and if we do, we will buy up
everything we need to to push them back down again. that only worked into it stopped working, which was last friday. you can see what happened to yields in australia as awfully shoul -- as inflation fears took hold. they scrapped yield curve control and let markets find their own level, but they are not raising rates yet. that is the story with the fed as well. inflation is far as the markets are concerned is here. you can see the five year breakevens have started to rise. they were cap too low for quite some time, but now they are starting to move. this has been the reaction in the futures market. we are now pricing in at the start of 2023 2.5 rate hikes. we were not supposed to move at all until 2023. so where does that leave us going forward? the fed is going to have to
change something in its statements or its views, and they're going to have to get some kind of change in the labor market for all of this to work out because here's the unemployment rate. it has been going down, but it is going to stop going down if there aren't enough workers to take jobs, and right now the participation rate is not moving. are we going to see a change on friday? the result of it not moving, you get people into the labor market . wages have skyrocketed, and that is the fear of the markets. that is what jay powell is going to have to address. how do we keep inflation under control? if we don't start seeing people come into work, we will see labor pressures that will add to the overall inflation concerns in the markets. guy: mike, great stuff. thank you very much, indeed. joining us for more on the subject is barclays' senior u.s. economist.
let's start talking about inflation and the fed. is the fed in control of the inflation narrative in the united states? >> well, good morning, and thank you for having me. it is a great question. i think they are going to continue repeating that mantra that inflation pressures that we are seeing right now are transitory, and that they will subside eventually, but the supply chain bottleneck may mean that they take longer to subside then initially thought. i think this kind of mantra keeps the options open for theme to overshoot in the second half of next year, they will say ok, we warned you about this. it is just a more persistent transitory course. i think that going to long-term inflation expectations to say that we are not worried because
they are anchored and we have not lost control of inflation. alix: does that mean you think they keep the word transitory in the statement? >> i think so. i think they keep the word transitory. i think it is a way for them to say we are not yet concerned about inflation spreading into the labor market and wage pressures, and it is a way for them to say they may or may not tighten and the second half of next year, although markets disagree with that. guy: what a rate hike reduce inflation -- would a rate hike reduce inflation? blerina: if you believe a lot of the drivers are driven by the supply side of the economy, monetary policy cannot do a lot ol those forces, so a premature rate hike in this
environment could actually have the unintended consequences of hurting growth, hurting labor markets without necessarily bringing inflation down. alix: it feels like the taper is contingent on inflation. is a hike contingent on the unemployment? it feels like no one really knows where that full employment number is. blerina: i think it is a great question because we are not hearing people talk a lot about labor markets in the context of rate hikes. they are just focusing on inflation and the fact that it is elevated and it might persist for a bit longer. i think labor markets matter a lot because they were the drivers of the monetary policy tightening and that slow pace in the last business cycle. we think the fed will continue that approach and let me labor -- let labor markets overheat and rates decline even further.
i think, to your point, there's a lot of uncertainty around neighbor. should that labor force participation not continue to trend higher as the business cycle improves, that means it may actually be a bit higher. guy: in terms of what we are going to learn about this debate, how much are we going to get from the payroll number on friday? what are you looking for in the payroll number when it comes to the labor market? blerina: we are looking for improvement in employment numbers because we got a lot of that slow down the previous months driven by the covid infection surges. so as infection rates decline and confidence to go out and spend improves, we would expect this acceleration in employment growth and for this to lead further declines in the
unemployment rate. then, from a medium-term perspective, the real thing to watch here is what happens to the labor force participation rate. we really need this cyclical rebound in the labor force participation rate because this is signaling to us that as the economy improves,'s labor supply is improving, and those workers are coming back in the labor force, so wage inflation should not be a concern for the fed. alix: we have seen a lot of market action over the last week, particularly in the bond market. where do you think we will see the biggest action over the next four days? blerina: i think we should really watch what happens to the short end of the curve and pricing for hikes in the near term. as you mentioned earlier, we have about 2.5 priced hikes for the second half of next year. what fed chair powell is going
to do during the press conference, we think he's not going to push back a whole lot of the market pricing because it fits their story for having optionality in the second half of next year, but if he does, we would read this as a debit signal, and they may be uncomfortable with the amount of market pricing right now. not necessarily with the option to hike, but how much they are expected to hike. alix: thank you very much. we appreciate that. that is sort of the set up from the economic angle. now we are going to look at the market impact. plus, we are headed into the happiest day of earnings reports this season. we will break that down with federated hermes' senio -- federated hermes' senior market strategist. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. alix steel is over in new york. this is "bloomberg markets." earnings now 2/3 complete, roughly. bloomberg's abigail doolittle is here with some of today's highlights. abigail: we certainly have lots of names to run through. here are some of the winners on earnings reports. shares of pfizer up 2.3%. they raised their full year vaccine view to $36 billion from 33.5 billion dollars. next year they say vaccine sales may slow, but right now, investors happy about this year. clorox up 0.7%, down from the pandemic levels, but nonetheless beating sales by 7%. under armour up almost 17%, the best day since october 2018.
a very strong quarter there. rothwell automation up 5.9%. a record high, the best day since march 2020. they put up a much better profit than expected. as for the laggards, dupont right now is gaining a big way, up 5%. we will be following that story is the day goes on, but they cut the full year view. there must be something in there that investors now like. earlier, those shares were lower. transocean down 1.9%. they had a much larger loss than expected. chegg, the online educator, plunging, down 44%. they are citing weaker enrollment, hopefully as the pandemic is coming to an end. take a look at the broader market, the technicals. as we going to the bloomberg terminal, we see that the s&p 500 is at a record high.
this is actually a different chart. but the s&p 500 is at a record high. maybe some of the strength we have had recently is going to pull back. alix: plus, the vix is really low, so maybe some complacency there. let's get a different take here. linda du -- linda duessel, they rated hermes -- federated hermes senior equity market strategist. what do you like right now? linda: good morning, and thanks so much for having me back again. we are very bullish into the year-end. we think that interest rates have been falling for several months, and what tends to have been working as we have been rotating and making record highs on top, underneath it has been
related to what is going on with interest rates. so if you believe as we do that the bottlenecks are going to really start to open up here, that the pullback we have had in growth globally can actually turn itself around in the fourth quarter and into next year, then you will let the more cyclical areas of the marketplace. there's are still energy, financials, industrials, very much overweight federated hermes. guy: why do using those bottlenecks are easing up? i look at what is happening in china. they are starting to lock up again. they have concerns about covid. schools in certain regions are starting to close. all of the supply chain crunch story starts in asia. it starts in china. and china is not through this yet. linda: i agree, they are not through this yet, and they have been very draconian in terms of closing things down and trying to keep things contained. but we are getting increasing
evidence of these global supply chains opening up in and around the world. i have just seen a statistic very recently that says that global pmi's, manufacturing indices, 94% of them are in expansion mode now. we follow those on a monthly basis, and we have seen in the third quarter and in recent months that expansion was still beginning, and now they seem to be opening. we are seeing improvements there . it is slow, to be sure, but ports on the west coast really starting to show themselves. really think those who said it is not coming will prove to be wrong. alix: people were wrong about earnings revisions getting lower , but we are still relatively ok. two guy -- to guy's point,
there is a question mark there. based on your point, is that why we continue to see record high on record high in the vix for his the volatility we have seen in the bond market and potentially higher rates from central banks in some capacity? how long cannot divergence last? linda: the concerns about china are real. they've got big problems over there, but there is the whole rest of the world, and we are opening up. that includes emerging markets around the world. that includes europe as well. so as far as the stock market is concerned, it is looking forward, and it sees a better year through next year. i would say no matter what anybody is worried about, there's two things that trump everything. one is that for the united states consumer, there's still over $2 trillion in excess savings that can be spent.
at least 1/4 of americans today say they are very worried about covid which means there's pent-up demand to the extent that they see that, fingers crossed, we get through this without having a dark winter for covid and the variants, and used will have a very easy fed. i would not fight the fed, and i would not fight all of that money sloshing around out there. guy: how high do rates have to go before we need to start questioning current valuations? say we push north of 2% on the u.s. 10 year. when do you think there will be a point when the market, the equity markets start to revisit current valuations based on superlow rates? linda: of course, interest rates are moving up, or have been, anyway, but real interest rates are still very negative and still very much as low as they were in the throes of the
pandemic. so what we are watching for in terms of when to get worried, with the tax question, it is much less severe than what we feared. next year's concerns have to be around with her or not the fed is making a policy mistake. when you look at the 10 year bond yields historically, it would be 4% before you would get into trouble. we were at 3% on the 10 year not very long ago, so we are not concerned about that so much as whether or not this transitory question gets thrown out the window and then the market believes they really did make a policy mistake. for there to be true inflation that is very sticky, you need wage inflation to stick. guy: we will find out whether we get evidence of that on friday. linda, thank you indeed. what are we going to talk about next? we are talking about jp morgan.
laura: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. chemical company dupont is expanding into electric cars and driver assistance systems. dupont has agreed to buy engineering materials maker rogers for about $2.3 billion. rogers develops advanced electronic materials used in electric vehicles. under armour rose in early
trading after raising its full-year outlook and posting quarterly by revenues -- quarterly revenues that beat estimates. under armour expects revenue to rise around 25% for the full year. elon musk says tesla has not signed a contract with hertz yet on that record order for electric cars. last week, the rental car company said it would buy 100,000 model three sedans for $4.2 billion. that sent shares of tesla rocketing to a record high. musk tweeted there was no signed agreement. still, hertz says it is already receiving the cars. that is the bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. we will get to more on tesla later on in the hour. in the meantime, jp morgan's daniel pinto is leaving london, moving to new york as he prepares to assume the role of president and coo. joining us a sonali basak.
does this mean jamie dimon will retire in five years? sonali: it is interesting. jamie dimon says he's probably going to stick around for another five years, but not 10. daniel pinto has been the copresident, so io -- co-coo, and he is moving to new york. daniel pinto has been in london for more than 20 years. it has been interesting the last couple of years watching jp morgan take more and more share from the european banks. daniel pinto is also head of the corporate investment bank, a key area and which that has been happening. but as we also know, the footprint in europe is changing with a bigger hub in paris as well. daniel pinto also spends a lot of time in new york. he has been splitting his time for many years now. so leave it to jp morgan with the best statement. a spokesman said this makes the most sense personally and professionally for daniel.
guy: how old is daniel pinto, and if they are putting this in place, is he going to stick around for another five years? sonali: daniel is 58 years old. he has been a key deputy. last year, he stepped up alongside gordon smith. he is really seen as an emergency replacement at this point in time. really, the succession planning is putting a very big eye on arian lake and jennifer but zach as they start to rise in their roles. as these businesses start to take greater form these women start to show their leadership capacity, they have been leaders of the bank for a long time, the spotlight will really be on them. guy: that is fascinating. so basically, this isn't succession planning. this is emergency cover. sonali: i am going to put you on the field reporting because jp morgan's footprint in europe as
it changes is going to be really interesting. daniel is not a very outspoken person, but he's definitely a pivotal person in global finance , as well as european finance. soft-spoken guy, but a fixture at a place like davos, and certainly in london. so how does it change the footprint of that city? guy: we are certainly going to miss him. sonali, thank you very much, indeed. sonali basak on more changes at jp morgan. have we got coming up? the world's largest ad agency helping efforts to get to net zero. the ceo joining us from cop-26 in glasgow. that conversation is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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financing last year. it is a business. so we have tax credits we disclose, the difference between our rate and are paid rate for wind, solar, and low and moderate income housing. so there's lots of opportunity to make money doing this. alix: that was bank of america ceo brian monahan on day six of -- day two of cop-26 climate talk. francine lacqua is with wpp ceo mark read. francine: thank you so much. i am delighted to be joined by mark read of wpp. thank you for joining us. you have a great overview of what clients are doing. you have also decided to work on your own supply chain and cut carbon emissions by 2030. how is that going? mark: i think it is going well. 32 of our top 50 clients have set their own target to get to net zero in the next five or 10 years, so it is clear business is making its own contribution.
we have pledged to be net zero by 2025. that includes media and production by 2030. alix: when will you work on's -- alix: when will you work on --francine: when were you work -- when will you work on scope three of your implants? -- your own clients? mark: -- our major media apartments are making their own commitments. what is really interesting is what we are doing in production. [indiscernible] historically, we would fly people to south africa, and fantastic location. today we are doing that remotely. many people are watching programs virtually on video links, not flying there anymore. francine: is that because of
covid? mark: covid did accelerated. 98% of footage is never used, so we are archiving it, assigning ai to index it, thinking about how we can reuse it in more and more situations. francine: how do you access the data to understand exactly what your scope three is for your clients? mark: i think that is the big question facing industry overall. how do we know what exactly is going on? we dig into the detail of every element of a production, the flights to get there, the traffic, the car journey, energy consumed by the shoots. we do a lot of detailed work to drill down into that, but it is not an exact science yet. francine: should ivers heiser's -- should advertisers say no? mark: we do work with energy
companies. i think the energy sector is on its own transition, and we can't get away with canceling petrol in one go. i think those companies that are working on the transition should be able to talk about what they are doing, but in a way that is fair and accurate and actually represents the steps they are taking. francine: but how do you make sure they don't brainwash? mark: it is our job to make sure the communications they put out is fair and accurate, that they are not misrepresenting what they are doing. so we do take responsibility for that, and so we should. francine: we are dealing with supply chain issues, dealing with the energy crisis, inflationary pressures. have you felt that on your clients? mark: so far we have not felt the pressure in our business. the advertising sector has rebounded faster than anyone could've expected to get we had 16% revenue growth in the third quarter, the strongest i think
in our history. so we have seen a really strong inbound -- really strong rebound. so far, consumers are spending and client spending is following consumers. alix: just out --francine: is that across the board? mark: i would say around the world, we are above the level of 2019 this year. we have recovered from covid. asia-pacific is the one place where we haven't get in the third quarter, and that is driven by australia, by china. so broadly speaking, there are bits and pieces that are going backwards. the automotive sector, the chip shortages, but broadly, spending is still strong. francine: what about western europe? mark: western europe is good. france, spain, germany. journey has been amazingly
strong the last two years. alix: do you see --francine: do you see inflation or pressures filter through? mark: absolutely there are inflationary pressures. i think probably, governments like a little bit of that inflation. the real value appreciates a little bit. that leads to tax increases. some of the supply chain problems get sorted out. we don't want that to continue, though. so i think we will see consumer spending shift. hopefully it should be transitory. interest rates pop up a little bit, i don't think it is the end of the world. that is i think how we see things. francine: going back to climate change, what do you think the role of advertisers is? is it consumer awareness? we have been talking about cutting emissions, net zero targets. can you be a catalyst for change?
mark: we hope to be a catalyst for change. we represent one in 3, 1 and four of the commercial messages. four out of five consumers want to change their behavior. only one in five of them know how to do it. 95% of them hold companies responsible for taking action. so i think it can't be down to consumers. has to be down to companies to make more sustainable lifestyles , more sustainable consumption easier for consumers. it has to be our job to change that behavior. francine: so what is a billboard you would do for leaders to change their baby here at cup 26 -- at cop-26? mark: change or die, isn't it? that is where we are in many respects. francine: people come here and say we have something on deforestation, this is landmark, this is great. others saying, why do we have
30,000 delegates talking and we won't get much substance out of it? mark: i think expectation management, to press people to motivate them to push forward, that is what we have seen so far. but we won't really k -- won't really know until the last one to 4, 48 hours. can be help the developed world mickey difference? -- world make a difference? alix: --francine: mark, thank you so much. with that, back to you in london. guy: thank you very much. francine with the ceo of the world's largest ad agency, talking about the effect that sector can have. we are going to talk about transatlantic trade.
over the weekend, a major step forward in european-u.s. trade. we saw a deal done that effectively downgrades, for now, the tariffs that have been placed on aluminum and steel and whiskey and all kinds of other things that come across from your side of the pond. a huge day in terms of transatlantic relations. however, section two 32 effectively still exists. this is a pause, which is important, i think. alix: 25% tariffs are going to apply to eu exports beyond the three point 3 million tons of steel, and after that is a question mark, but it does remove retaliatory tariffs, like you say. the real question at how you avoid chinese steel coming through the eu and coming to the u.s. guy: that is going to be a critical question. to answer it, we now welcome our radio listeners and tv viewers to a conversation with the u.s. commerce secretary, gina raimondo, here for an exclusive
interview. we are joined now as well by bloomberg "balance of power" anchor david westin. david: thank you for joining us forget first of all, congratulations. we talked about it before. it could not have been easy to get done. my first question picks up on what we just heard, that you did not just take the tariffs off. it is more complicated than that. why did you do it that way, and how much of that was to make sure we didn't hurt jobs back here in the united states in steel and aluminum? sec. raimondo: good morning. thank you for having me. of course, we want to have a strong relationship economically with the eu, but we have to protect u.s. industry. we have to protect the u.s. steel industry, steelworkers, the aluminum industry. so we maintain the tariffs, but we also allowed for the first 3.3 million metric tons of steel to come into the u.s. from the
eu terra free -- eu tariff free. beyond that, we maintain the tariffs because the real problem here is china. china's dirty steel, their excess capacity of steel, that has distorted the global market through their dumping, often into the eu, which comes on american shores. so what we said is we are not going to allow our steel industry to be heard by chinese excess capacity. we are going to work with the eu to protect our workers and their workers. david: to pick up on china, how important was it that you basically banned transatlantic shipments of chinese steel coming from europe to the united states? sec. raimondo: hugely important. the technical term is melt and pour. it is a big deal because we essentially said we only want eu steel to come in terra free.
this is meant to work with our allies in europe against chinese excess capacity of their dirty steel. to the point earlier i heard guy talking about what comes next, what comes next is a global steel arrangement with the eu. we have said very clearly that over the course of the next two years, we will work with our allies to come up with a global steel arrangement that preference is cleaner steel and u.s. and eu steel. david: you said we want to have really good trading relations with europe. we also want to protect good jobs in the united states. there's a third element, and that is climate, because you are also trying to limit carbon emissions. how does this deal accomplished that? sec. raimondo: to our knowledge, this is the -- on paper that we
are going to work in a defined period of time to come up with a global steel arrangement that preference is clean steel, so that actually takes into account the carbon intensity of steel, which will benefit the u.s. and the eu, and it is designed to block china, which continues to make dirty steel. the other point that i think is worth mentioning, right now we are struggling through supply chain issues. we are all seeing increases in prices. in america, steel prices have gone up in the past few months. this is going to help all of those supply chain issues. steel is in cars, trucks, dishwashers, washing machines. we will see prices go down on account of relaxing the tariffs, and that is just going to help with inflationary pressures and
some of the bottlenecks in the downstream supply chains. guy: madam secretary, guy johnson in london. can i pick up on that point and may become to some others? how quickly do you think that effect will be felt in the economy? sec. raimondo: i think very quickly. once the tariffs go away on the first 3.3 million tons, you will see that very quickly be translated into lower prices in the consuming industries. we've heard complaints from car manufacturers, truck manufacturers, boat manufacturers, that they are going to feel very quick relief from the steel coming in tariff free, which means consumers will start to feel that relief. guy: and that is ultimately where we should be focusing. can i come back to this issue of 232? the impression to a certain extent over here is that
european steel, aluminum, everything else is still perceived by the administration in washington is a national security threat. is that still the case? and if it is, are we talking about a different relationship now when it comes to trade between the eu and the u.s. that feels a little bit more transactional than it was before? sec. raimondo: that is absolutely not true. in some ways it is unfortunate that the prior administration conveyed that message. europe is our ally. the eu is among our strongest and longest ally. the thing that endangers american national security and economic security is china. china's excess capacity, dumping cheap steel into the eu, into the u.s.. that is very much imperiling our steel industry and steelworkers. so what we are saying here is we
want to work with our allies in the eu against chinese excess capacity. that is what this is all about. it is a real coming back together with the eu on a global stage to protect our mutual industries against china. guy: as you talk about the allies you have in the eu, you have allies elsewhere, in the u.k. and japan. do you think we will see similar deals being offered to those countries as well? sec. raimondo: i think we will see resolutions, and we are beginning those consultations with japan and the u.k., and certainly hope to come to resolutions that do what this does, which is protect the steel industry, protect steelworkers, and also repair the air rotation with our allies that came from these tariffs. guy: madam secretary, thank you
alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel, with guy johnson in london. this is "bloomberg markets." avis hitting a record high. it is now up 184% on the day. revenue and profit did impress, strong demand, but the moment is that it plans to add more electric cars. nothing officially announced in terms of the tesla scenario, which is a whole other story, but supposedly it means they are
going to be adding some more electric vehicles. joining us now is bloomberg's ed ludlow. this happens, and then you have confusion as to did hertz actually wanda buying and getting more tesla's, which is confusing everybody. ed: executives essentially saying the reason you haven't heard specifics, they commit to electric vehicles, but there was a little bit of shade thrown essentially at hertz and all of the communique going around with the deal with tesla. i would note as well that the data coming from s3 partners, avis is trending. historically, it is not a stock that has trended on some of the meme platforms, but it is currently. so there's a lot going on here. just take into account that the stock was already up in a massive way year to date as well before this morning's move. guy: is elon musk on board with
a deal with hertz? ed: that is the most difficult question you could have asked me. what he was reiterating in his tweet was the idea that tesla is supply constrained. elon musk has mentioned on more than one occasion that he feels that they stock is valued too high for tesla, and this idea that they are supply constrained. in other words, they cannot build enough vehicles to meet demand. a big part of that story is a new factoring europe, and germany, and the plant coming online in austin. elon musk has been very close to the retail investor, very close to the tesla customer. if you read his tweets over the years, what he appears to be saying is that hertz is not the priority over anyone else. alix: is that true? ed: it is hard to say. they are on course to one
million vehicles in 2021, approximately. but there are people that tweet constantly, i placed an order for a model three, i placed an order for a model y, where is it? people constantly tweeting out elon musk saying, hold on, i have been waiting weeks and months for this. to that might be some of the pressure, that we already know people are waiting on the consumer side. maybe they are concerned that hertz will get special priority. guy: how does this change the notion of been -- the notion around charging? this is a key constraint in terms of people's ability to use these vehicles more broadly. ed: this week, tesla has a trial in the netherlands where it is opening up its chargers in that country to other ev cars, non-tesla. the tesla supercharger is
technically better from a technological standpoint. they charge better and more quickly. there are names that have a big footprint in the united states, but not all of those are fast charges. they can take hours to charge a non-tesla or tesla car, so that is a big part. hertz also set as part of this deal, it would invest in charges for customers who rent their cars, so that adds another way to monetize the ev play for rental car companies. guy: thank you. avis currently up by 183%. to quote alix steel, that is bananas. coming up next, alberto gallo. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy johnson. ♪ guy: tuesday the second. what do you need to know out of europe this hour? we've got 30 minutes to the close. bp dishing out more cash to investors. 1.25 billion dollars of buybacks announced today after the trading division powers and 18% pickup in quarterly profits. shipping giant maersk delivering as well. we will hear from the ceo later this hour. standard chartered sinking as margins at its retail business disappoint. financial markets and wealth managementtwo bright spots in today -- wealth management two bright spots in today's numbers. we get to the bank of