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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  November 7, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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>> a very good morning. come to daybreak australia. >> we are counting down to asia's major market opens. >> good evening. the top stories. china hosts a record -- exports in october surging despite global supply chain disruptions. asian investors start the week
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off watching for clues in inflation and the economic recovery. >> and sell, that is the verdict from elon musk's twitter poll. this is a feature -- was the longest winning streak since august. we also have treasury surging after the u.s. payroll data exceeded expectations. oil fell for a second week. we did see u.s. and saudi arabia's bar over prices though we saw a little upside in the friday session. it was all about the data point that we saw on friday. job creation coming in stronger than expected. 531 thousand. looking better for private sector payroll. if you can bring up that cwe cae
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seasonal adjustment, this is the biggest gain in payroll since last october. this is a little bit of playing catch-up to the report over the last two months. a relief to the fed and the white house. suggesting the weaker august and september reports were because of the delta variant. nothing more fundamental. and perhaps, another sign of optimism that president biden was finally able to pass the infrastructure package. he hailed this new fund for roads and bridges. everything needed in the u.s. we are talking about this making viable some of these projects. we might see a little more momentum here. we are still waiting for the bigger social spending packed your bill -- spending bill but
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still a small victory. >> it is a bit of a difference in hong kong and singapore. we will see how asian stocks react to that. some of the players that may have some impact. what we have not seen in terms of optimism is emerging market stocks. a lost decade. at the big -- the idea is that it will usher in an era of primacy for emerging-market equities. we had the rally in october that made it seem like it was potentially the start of a comeback but it has reached a 20 year low relative to the main u.s. counterpart and it does not seem there is a window of opportunity that em stocks have taken advantage of. >> we will be watching for what happens with tesla at the open on monday. elon musk had asked whether he
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should be selling 10% of tesla stake worth about $21 billion and a majority of his followers said he should. this is one stock we will be watching when wall street comes online on monday. >> watching also reactions to the strength of the chinese recovery. trying a posting a record -- china posting a record surge. we are still seeing the record monthly trade surplus with exports rising over 27% in dollar terms. the trade wrote story has remained well above pre-pandemic levels all year. >> we are going to discuss all of these details with our chief north asia correspondent, steve engle and reporter su keenan in new york. steve, let's start with you and the china you go numbers. how strong where they? >> it is the trend we have been
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seeing all year as you laid out. already exports growing faster than all of 20/20. we were in the pandemic then but every month since, growth above pre-pandemic levels. we were expecting a consensus -- exports really keeping the chinese economy afloat because we have seen weakness in the chinese economy whether it is because of the property chaos happening with evergrande, the power shortages, coronavirus outbreaks have doomed consumer spending -- have dimmed consumer spending and the trade future with the u.s. but, pent-up demand is therefrom abroad, the u.s. and europe and that is where we are seeing a lot of the export growth which led to the big surplus.
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$84.5 billion surplus. >> when it comes to the infrastructure bill, what are the implications? what do we expect from here? >> the first thing that will happen is president biden is going to head out in the next few weeks and tried to shares sell -- and try to sell the plan to the public. last week, there were some electoral setbacks for the democrats, his party, in state elections. and it became quite clear in the ensuing days including over the weekend that this infrastructure plan partly came to pass because the democrats felt some urgency after the setbacks. the spending itself will be drawn out over years and holds out the promises that you were
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discussing at the start of infrastructure projects including broadband internet and the more traditional projects including transportation that biden says will help the general public. >> talking about transportation, tesla garnering attention over the weekend. will the sale by elon musk make a difference in teslas ongoing story? >> not a material difference analyst say but it will affect the volume. elon musk has a long history of engaging with fans and investors on twitter and this weekend was no exception. he floated the idea of selling a 10% stake of tesla, ostensibly for tax reasons, and asked his followers to answer a poll. should he sell or should he not? the vast majority of the respondents, some 3.5 million,
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said yes that he should sell. and he followed up in a tweet that he was prepared to accept either outcome. not unusual for the tesla ceo to engage on the twitterverse but it is unusual to ask a buy-in from investors and fans on this kind of thing. analysts say based on a cryptocurrency version of tesla shares, that will probably be impacting tesla stocks on monday. >> stephen engle and su keenan with our top stories. let's get you straight to the story setting up for this trading week. >> asian stocks look ready for an early start. tracking a rally we saw in treasuries on friday. the 10 year yield dropping i as
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much as nine basis points. we are seeing a potential upside for -- stocks this morning. this was after the rba had an upbeat outlook for the coming year though it did maintain a dovish stance on the rates outlook. we are looking at the potential for any soft data when it comes to jobs and wages adding to the drag along with the support from commodity prices. we have seen prices take a hit when it comes to base metals. chinese -- base metals have been under pressure. we have seen aluminum prices head to a bear market as we saw a three week drop in aluminum prices in london. we are sitting -- we are seeing
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china have to boost production. china's coal imports almost doubled in october from last year. >> let's get it over to vonnie quinn. >> tsmc says it does responded to a u.s. request for supply chain information. while ensuring no customer specific information will be exposed. it's firms will provide some data. flights from european hubs to the u.s. resume monday reviving some of the most lucrative routes for airlines. for the pandemic, british airways generated $1 billion in revenue each year from london
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heathrow to jfk in new york. flights are effectively limited to the fully vaccinated. virus restrictions in australia's most populous state eased further. indoor limits of one person per four square meters will double to one person for every two square meters. stadiums and cinemas can operate at full capacity. australia hit its 80% vaccination capacity over the weekend. the cop 26 summit enters its second week. the messages that limited progress in the talks is not enough. pledges so far from governments and companies. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i am vonnie quinn. >> the industrials and consumer discretionary are among the top for investment. our guest joins us with her market outlook. we speak exclusively to the asia-pacific ceo of credit suisse about the strategy and plans for the region. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> let's take a look at the week ahead. plenty of action in china to watch for it. the communist party central committee convenes on monday. the most important event on china's political calendar. it is expected to lay out the groundwork for the president's term. the philippines releases its gdp
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numbers. south korea is starting its reopening. we also have tencent earnings do out. another big day for china tech as well. 11/11 is alibaba's single day sales event. cop26 ends on friday. and the aipac leaders summit will begin. >> rate hikes' timing is now the talk of the town. we will get more hard data. the bond markets pricing in around 3% inflation in the u.s. for two years but for october, up economist -- economists see a higher trend. >> in china, property bonds are in focus. coupon payments are coming due. evergrande's rival has become
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the main source. shares were suspended on friday. china's property bond rout has more deadlines looming. kaisa is facing a coupon do worth almost $30 million. >> and that is your week ahead. credit suisse is exiting its prime brokerage business and shifting more capital to the investment bank as part of an overhaul intended to stabilize profitability and reduce risk. let's bring in helman sitohang from credit suisse who will retain the role through the restructuring. thank you for your time today. let me start by asking you about the impact on asian decision-making, asian operations given the region will be folded back into the global structure. helman: as you know, we have
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gone through our strategic preview. we want to continue to focus on being a leading global manager. in asia, we will continue to invest because we want to grow and we want to base it on the strength that we have in asia, one of our fastest growing regions. asia will continue to have important decision-making in our plan selections. the metrics continue to be important. >> how would this change reflect the importance of asia? wouldn't you be losing a bit of competitive edge given the markets are so diverse and you need localized attention for
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decision-making? helman: not at all. we have a very strong starting point. asia makes up 19% of revenue. the new structure is very clear as mentioned by our ceo last week that asia will continue to have a very particular point in decision-making within our strategies. especially with plan selection for our clients. resource allocations and so on. that will allow us to grow factor -- faster. we also have increased balance sheet lending globally. >> as businesses start to get
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back to normal in asia, how do you expect wealth businesses to perform next year? helman: as you said earlier, in asia, we had a slowdown in the last few weeks. in china, some of the technology was slowed. we may have fewer listings of chinese companies but clearly, we are building up for the listings in hong kong, for example. we expect things to be picking up again. >> what about your views on the strength of the chinese business in general given the various regulatory crackdowns we continue to see including a q1 across the property sector? helman: as you know, i have been
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a banker in the region for 30 years now and one thing i know for sure is that the region is very --. medium to longer term is always up. i am confident the property sector in general, and other sectors in china and other countries will continue to see -- but medium to long-term, the projection is up. we will continue to participate in those sectors. >> credit suisse and other banks seem to be focused on the worth of individuals. i wonder how the sector has been impacted by the ongoing pandemic across asia. helman: if you look at our numbers in asia, in the last nine months, we have record profitability for nine months.
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this is an all-time high for the nine-month period as well as the third quarter. the best third quarter for us historically. you see the impact has not had much impact on us. we have grown nicely over the last couple of years and we continue to seek opportunity. >> given the ongoing campaigns whether it is in china or even japan with the new capitalism idea, you are seeing the idea of wealth distribution being highlighted in some of these asian countries. is this going to impact your business in the future? helman: [indiscernible] long-term measures for our clients. we are very happy across asia-pacific and not only china
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though it is important for us. asia, australia, india, across the market, we see a lot of opportunities for growth. >> given china's strategy which is impacting hong kong as well, what challenges does that pose to your bankers when they cannot get in and out of a country? helman: we have a number of bankers -- we have [indiscernible] some of -- we continue to build up our presence in china which has helped us in terms of travel
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restrictions and we will continue to invest in the onshore markets in china. and we continue a strong business and hong kong as well. >> we have been focused on the chinese economy. also mention growth in the indian economy. are there other markets that we might be overlooking but we are credit suisse sees great opportunities? helman: we are very strong in southeast asia, for example. it is a market with roughly 700 million people. that is one market. for us, australia has been one of the fastest-growing growing when it comes to wealth. there are clearly opportunities across various markets. the key is understanding the markets. and that is why we have the structure that we have.
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>> we really appreciate your time. helman sichuan from credit suisse. we have many more high-profile guests. including the second minister for national development and an interview with one of the most established conglomerate families and indonesia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. berkshire hathaway hit a new record in the third quarter as nearly $150 billion. many businesses bouncing back from the pandemic some -- pandemic slump. berkshire recorded more money into buybacks. we will be watching honda shares
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when tokyo opens. the company cut its operating profit and sales forecast for the financial year through march saying it now expects profits of $5.8 billion. an australian newspaper says blackstone has walked away with no plans for a new offer for at least 18 months. the casino operator rejected the bid in may. blackstone's view is that crown is not currently and investable state and any deal is at least two years away. >> let's take a look at some of the other stories ahead of the australian trading day. we will be watching -- [indiscernible] scotland -- his group has been undergoing a strategic review so
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we will be watching for that. also watching energy companies. they are in focus today as crude futures move higher. a lot more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> every five years, a big meeting around the chinese communist party six neri session. this week should set the tone for long-term prosperity fosters -- prospects. xi jinping is going for an unprecedented third term. preserving his power requires a laser focus on matters at home.
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that could explain why xi jinping has not left china in almost two years, choosing not to attend the most recent g20 and cop 26 on a person. chinese officials face lower spending, disrupt it supply chains, plus, xi jinping's campaign to tighten regulation across everything from technology to online tourism and real estate for the selloff. that at one stage wiped off more than $1 trillion from the global value of chinese stocks. heidi: that plan is likely to usher in lasting investment area over to beijing. we know some of the strategic focus already, things like common for spared area how do investors potentially rebuild
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their strategies around what we are expecting? >> i think markets and investors will be reading closely this statement we will get at is -- at the end of the plenum, thursday of next week. people will be looking for how the idea of common prosperity will be prosecuted in china. we have had all of the screw 20 around tech. we have had the tightening of financing for real estate. and, the real -- ripples that has had through the market. more generally, this plenum is being held this week to form a resolution on the history of the communist party in the first 100 years of its instant area is going to be a platform that xi jinping uses to launch his campaign ahead of the party congress at the end of 2022 for an extended term in office leading the world's second-largest economy. . heidi: this is at a time or we
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have the ongoing power crunch and cop 26 meetings. how will this affect what comes out of the plenum? john: xi jinping was the one who announced china's goals to become carbon neutral by 26. that push towards carbon neutrality has contributed greatly to the power crunch we have seen in china over the last couple of months. so, that is the hallmark of xi jinping's policy, the hallmark of his platform. he will continue to pursue that. the way it is prosecuted and the effects on the economy will come down to how well the does in terms of fine-tuning the policy, obviously, if china tries to pull away from coal too quickly, we could see more of a repeat of what we have had in the recent past. but over the weekend, we had a state grid coming out and saying that electricity crunch is over. all of the electricity supplies are back to normal.
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those short-term impacts have been great. worth -- will there be additional disturbances? loft wait and see. heidi: we mentioned the cop 26 talks. they are entering their second and final week. we have seen a series of ledges from governments -- pledges from governments, corporations and money managers. what is your take on the first week of the meeting? >> there are five parameters around cop we look at and we want to measure success or l your area there is ambition, adaptation, finance, mitigation. going into cop we looked at each of these parameters. we try to score them. overall, we gave a score of .5 out of 10 going in. over the last week, we have seen announcement. they were a little
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disappointing. now we think we are at 4.7 out of 10. you can see it is a little worse than average. at the same time, compared to going in, it has been better. announcements by india -- announcements by india and vietnam have been positive. >> we saw the u.s. house of representatives passing that infrastructure bill. is that making you more optimistic about spine -- spending and the climate bill? ali: the biden administration was hoping to release the legislation going into cop but the timing did not work out. this is a bill the senate passed back in august. there is a separate bill that is more important for emissions in the u.s.. that a separate bill, the
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progressive side of the democratic party was saying they wanted both bills come together. for better or worse, they relinquished and allowed the infrastructure bill to go ahead. this one still has some good news. there is money for ev charging structures and the u.s. power grid. but it does not have additional provisions that the build back better bill has for investment in clean energy. >> were you watching? ali: there are a couple of things. one is, if you are member, the famous keywords, coal, cars, cash, and trees. we have heard about coal, cash, and trees but not cars so much. wednesday will be the transportation day. it will be interesting to see if
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there are new substantial announcements made that day. the other thing is really article six. it is around carbon trading. this is one of the mechanisms that would be really quickly -- critical for developing economies. it is a very challenging topic. there are some definitions that need to be worked out and agreed upon. this one, every time at the various cops between paris and this cop, there is a little progress but a lot of wrinkles that need to be hunker down. heidi: we will be watching closely. let's get you to first word news with vonnie quinn. bonnie: power supply has returned to normal across most of the country. electricity is now only being restricted for some industries in selected provinces. it warns it will take a
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balancing act over the winter. the company supplies power to 1.1 billion people, 88% of chinese territory. china posted a record monthly trade surplus in october. experts -- exports surged 27% from the year earlier to more than $300 billion. that was the 13th street much of table -- 13th straight month of double-digit growth. china's exports through october have surpassed all of 2020. president biden says he will sign off on the biggest u.s. infrastructure plan in decades. the house passed the bill late friday night after voters -- the $550 billion measure includes money for roads and bridges as well as expanded broadband, clean water, power grid upgrades , and pollution cleanups. elon musk social media followers
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voted that the tesla chief should sell 10% of his stake in the electric carmaker. about 58% of 3.5 million twitter users support the moves. a tweet cited recent discussions about the ultra-wealthy hoarding unrealized gains to avoid paying taxes. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quick take. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. heidi. heidi: next, insight into the market. after the break, why she says cyclical's have the edge when it comes to earnings growth except for one key sector. we found out which next. this is bloomberg.
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♪ you are watching daybreak australia. u.s. congress passed the one point $2 trillion infrastructure bill friday. the china industrial team is mapping out what mainland stocks could benefit the most from the u.s. rebuilding and repairing roads, bridges, and other major project, highlighting power tools as the most relevant play in the china space because of heaven eight -- heavy revenue exposure to the north american
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market. liking electronics the most. china's manufacturing sector. citigroup is liking hydraulic the most there. given that u.s. customers make 5% to 6% of the revenue base. heidi: let's talk more in terms of what it means for markets and investors. joining us now is dana, the co-chief investment officer with the wealth management platform invest net. in terms of investable things around the bill being passed, what are you watching? dana: for sure. it was a major victory. it came a little late for the democrats, but, it is certainly something that speaks to increasing productivity. we have seen that with the pandemic. productivity increased at a higher margin for companies.
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now with the infrastructure bill, we should expect that. i think it is good for cyclicals. i think it is good for reopening. heidi: what is the one set are among cyclicals you need to pay particular attention to? dana: expected earnings for shared growth in 2022. financials do not have the edge the way industrials, discretionary. i don't know it is -- if it is something you should shy away from so much, but you will have to contend with the yield curve flattening a little bit and where that takes us. heidi: dana, we have seen higher wages in the latest jobs numbers. we know that input costs are rising given supply chain disruptions. how will this affect the performance of these businesses on the market, -- the market? dana: third-quarter gdp growth
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was kind of lackluster, probably, because inflation rate prices are rising. if productivity increases, that is plateauing a bit and higher prices worked their way in. i think there is a disconnect between some of the expectations we have about inflation and what consumers are feeling on the ground, right? 30% increases in energy costs are expected this winter. jobs growth is up 28%. these are numbers people feel. as we get to a new equilibrium, we will continue to feel that. that will be the bed -- big headwind for markets. shery: for businesses trying to balance of the dynamic of having to pass the cost to the consumers, which are the ones positioned better in this environment to be able to pass? dana: consumer staples tend to
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pass on cost quickly. small caps in an inflationary environment have his berkley been able to pass the cost. -- have historically been able to pass the cost. so, interestingly, they tend to outperform in inflationary environments. shery: dana, it was great having you on. thank you for joining us the co-chief investment officer for envestnet. warren buffett has spent money buying back berkshire hathaway stock, more than he did with his biggest bet on apple. joining us now for the details is bloomberg america finance team leader sally bakewell. sadly, give us some of the key takeaways? sally: berkshire reported another strong quarter saturday.
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a new record of nearly 150 billion. he was very aggressive on buying back berkshire stock. the company's operating income was up at about 18%. so, let's break that down. why was cash in record? i think it was the scarcity of big deals, in part thanks to fierce competition from specs workload deals and a scarcity of decent stockmarket margins since markets have and on such a tear. the cash has grew in the face of that tough accommodation. what do you do? you buy back berkshire stock instead. we saw him do that aggressively this quarter, buying back 7.6 billion. as for operating earnings, those were up, helped in part from the economy recovering from the pandemic. his energy businesses and his railroad particularly held here, bnsf saw a record earnings,
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which was impressive, because, it has the world over been susceptible to a lot of supply chain crashes. i think overall, investors are still being kept rating for the big acquisition. but we feel good about -- waiting for the big acquisition. but we feel pretty good about how the conglomerate is doing. heidi: it's really not the worst problem to have area when it comes to consumer exposure, tell me more about the supply chain issues? are they expected to way more into -- weigh more into this key season? sally: buffett still pointed to an uptick in consumer demand for products, which did help offset some of those. so, while he is keeping an eye on it, i think investors probably look at his earnings very closely for what he says about how the economy is doing,
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and another interesting thing to point out was that he was a net seller affairs again in fact he sold about 2 billion more than he bought. that is an indication he is very cautious about stock markets now. they have set high after high. it shows things are probably a little too expensive for warren buffett now. shery: we have had a number of extreme weather events in the u.s.. berkshire has a collection of insurers area having an impact that those have on their bottom line? whether there any other negatives we should watch out for? sally: insurance businesses posted and underwriting loss generally thanks to those extreme weather events. but, again, i think the energy business and his railroad helped offset that a little. i think in terms of a negative
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or overall learning, which really mirror berkshire's equity investments, they were down by more than 60% year-over-year. but, buffett always kind of emphasizes that investors should not focus too much on quarterly changes in investment gains or losses. so, i think, really, it is about supply chain going forward and how those will impact and whether those will filter through into some of his manufacturing businesses. and, if is borrowed business that has done so well can continue to thrive despite. sally bakewell from bloomberg americas finance team. you can get a round up of the stories you need to know to get your day going. today's edition of daybreak is on the terminal. it is also available on the
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mobile and bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize your settings. this is bloomberg.
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>> telcom has shown no interest in a takeover that would have come in bind -- combined south
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africa's second and third largest telecommunications operators. it is looking to build on its core business, a combination with telcom has a market value of $1.9 billion and would help close the gap with rival vertical. first energy will sell a stake in transmission businesses to asset management for $2.4 billion. a higher based utility will issue dollars in common stocks to flagstone at $39 per share. first energy says the financing will drive a smart grid and clean energy initiatives. . marvels at terminals took in $71 million on opening weekend representing a ram is for the studio. internationally, the film generated over 90 million.
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they are still short of totals before covid. let's get a look at some of the stocks we are watching closer to the start of trading in sydney. shery: we are keeping an eye on crowd shares. blackstone has abandoned its takeover bid for the can see no operator -- for the casino operator. this as australia reopened its borders to international travel. bhp is on a watch, agreeing to sell its asset in a $1.2 billion deal. we have gold rotating. its offer for apollo consolidated. heidi: one a new asset class has been cryptocurrencies. look at bitcoin, fe or young and
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other assets under -- ethereum and other assets under pressure. we see rage -- range bound trading in bitcoin after hitting a record high above 66 thousand dollars mid-october. either has been under pressure after gaining ground for the past two sessions. we will be watching closely on what happens when wall street opens on monday. but, at the moment, really fluctuating between gains and losses. but, we continue to see more institutional investors embracing crypto. now, even heidi, in new york city it is perhaps a new hub for the crypto environment. the new york mayor elect eric adams is saying schools should teach about cryptocurrency. he has said he will except his first three paychecks in bitcoin. that he actually wants new york to build of this pipeline of talent for crypto related jobs.
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we will see what that does to the endorsement of this new asset class. heidi: yes. it is a really interesting idea, the idea of teaching this in schools. how do you teach it? he says it is a way for paying for goods and services. it goes beyond that. it is interesting. he speaks about everyone wanting exposure to bitcoin. how do you get it? we have etf now. you have a buying stock on the traditional stock, in a bitcoin company or an infrastructure company that has exposure to bid on. -- to bitcoin. the stock etf's as well. you can also invest directly into the technology itself. it is an interesting conversation. certainly, we are seeing more politicians and policymakers jump on board. look at the broader markets. it comes at a time when you have
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china pushing back on these going transactions, crypto transactions. you have money managers wanting to embrace this new technology because they feel that you could be left behind fall behind in the very competitive space if you are actually -- if you actually do not dive into the technology. now, these etf launches we are seeing in the u.s. and other parts of the world might allow that competitiveness to increase, at least, in america. heidi: we are seeing that in australia as well. those etf launches. parts of this part of the world are scrambling to become a new hub. let's look at the markets. we could get a positive boost, the u.s. house passing the infrastructure bill. we usually see a reaction when it comes to asian infrastructure players, like trading in sydney
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that has exposure to the u.s. story. new zealand, and upside of 1/10 of 1%. sydney futures positive, 1% higher. we are seeing a little more muted start to trading when it comes to tokyo and seoul.
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heidi: welcome to daybreak: asia. shery: we are counting down to asia's major market opens. i am shery ahn. our top stories this evening. china posts a record trade surplus despite mobile supply chain disruption. sell sell


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