Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 11, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EST

7:00 am
>> deletion is going to begin work before it gets better -- inflation is going to get worse before it gets better. >> the fed is navigating the most difficult period in its history since the volcker era. >> we are living in an environment where prices are going to be higher and where wages are also higher. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the most contentious debate in a long time. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market futures up 17, up 0.4% on the s&p. it is day two reaction to that cpi print. tom: dr. el-erian really talking
7:01 am
it up in "the ft," and you wonder what the substantial further progress will be to get any central bank to look at inflation, double anything considered normal. jonathan: people are so dug in on this debate. did yesterday and that print change anybody's mind on anything? tom: absolutely not. we need to see a sequence of prints. where it is going to come from is this really strange thing called owners equivalent. you flunk exams trying to explain it. only mckee at bloomberg understands it. jonathan: it is going up. even if you strip out the energy story, it is going up. it is stickier, broader, and a lot of people are funding it very difficult to remain open-minded about incoming data to shift their view for the. path forward. they have become so -- for the path forward. they have become so dug in. the bias here is amazing. lisa: we are in unprecedented
7:02 am
times, turning the economy off and trying to restart it. julia coronado saying the fed is going to keep a steady hand, and i question what i steady hand means. does it mean staying the course of incrementally removing stimulus, or ending it so you don't necessarily give a further boost to some of the inflation pressures, particularly in the housing market? jonathan: let's start with the price action. equity futures up 0.3% on the s&p. in the bond market, we are closed for veterans day. yesterday, 1.55% on tens off the back of a sloppy auction. it wasn't just down to that cpi print. it was down to a rough issue that came from the treasury. tom: going to go to the flows here. really emphasized this two weeks ago. so much of this bond movement is about huge movements of money in the market. jonathan: euro-dollar with a $1.14 handle.
7:03 am
-0.1%. lisa: how much will you see that continue in terms of the dollar strengthening the strongest versus its peers going back a year? today, the u.s. cash bond market is closed for veterans day, but i really and -- i really want to hone in on that auction yesterday. where the yields price, where these bonds sold, the yield was five basis points higher than where it was trading before this auction. there has not been such a significant mispricing going back to august 2011, when the united states was evolving. at 8:30 a.m., we can pick up on that as well as the wealth tax and a host of other issues. leon cooperman be joining us here on bloomberg television. at 11:15, president ad and at arlington cemetery about
7:04 am
veterans day. i am wondering whether he talks at all about the cpi print yesterday. this is incredibly political. how does he reframe this? they were suddenly acknowledging inflation and trying to work with it in a new way rather than just say it is transitory. the mood has shifted, and so does the political rhetoric. jonathan: do you think some of the economic analysis is political as well? one thing i notice, a lot of people found it hard to divorce their political bias away from their economic analysis. i just wonder to what extent that is happening again. lisa: honestly, how do you parse the two-out? because the political response is what you do with data, how you interpret it. it is a very tricky thing. how do you move forward and try to combat this? we don't know how quickly some of these inflationary pressures will roll off. i am just being honest, when i talk to economists, their political view is related to
7:05 am
their view on akamai can put. jonathan: i hear a rumor that -- view on economic input. jonathan: i hear a rumor that annmarie is in town and she will be joining us on the situation. she is in new york city. tom: oh, the gucci sale. jonathan: we will find out in 10 minutes' time. kristin bitterly joins us now, head of capital markets at citi. are you flexible for next year? kristen: i think we have to be flexible and we have to really define what transitory means, or maybe just up using it entirely because i think what we are going to see is yes, we saw a pretty spicy cpi print. our view is actually very nuanced. we should anticipate seeing these elevated levels of inflation for the next couple of months what happens next year is really very contingent on the
7:06 am
demand side of the equation, and i don't we talk enough about this. we expect inflation to be elevated. that is different than transitory, but it will moderate to around 3% to 3.5%, and we fell out of that relief coming from the demand side. the reason for that come apart of the demand is obviously seasonal in nature going into the holiday season. the other part is when we look at the consumer savings rate, the consumer is very liquid, very strong. that big start we saw in consumer savings has come off substantially since the continuation of stimulus checks. once you have normalization of consumer demand, that is going to help the demand and supply and get us to that 3.5% average, which is elevated. tom: you are out of kellogg and northwestern, and that means you studied management up, down, and sideways. ken management in america adapt to this inflation? kristen: i think we have seen that throughout earnings when we
7:07 am
talk about the market impact, we have actually seen in earnings season the way to beat inflationary pressures is with record high profitability. it didn't happen across the board, but it was pretty impressive. so what is going to continue to drive markets is getting away from some of the momentum trading we have seen, getting away from whether it is covered winners or losers. it is about a return to fundamentals and what companies have strong balance sheets, the access to capital, and the ability to continue to grow earnings, which is where we are invested. lisa: how do you price fundamentals at a time when the technicals are a bit distorted? kristen: that is probably a great word for it. we have to, and terms of the fundamental argument, we have to break down short-term versus medium to long-term. short-term, if you are a short-term tactical terrier --
7:08 am
technical trader, you have to approach that was a lot of humility because it is difficult to predict these prints and predict the reaction on the back of it. in terms of looking at fundamentals, what we are really trying to do is pull back from the provisions and prepare our portfolios for this type of environment. regardless of if inflation is elevated or if we get a rate hike over the summer, you want to prepare for a higher rate environment and prepare for those inflationary pressures, which means we are pulling back from direction -- from duration and finding alternative sources of yield in the portfolio. jonathan: i think you are so right. in the last couple of weeks, tremendous ism in america. really solid data, great payrolls report. then this 6% print on cpi at 6.2%. the equity market is still just off all-time highs. it is difficult to understand whether this will persist. the number one thing this year for us, corporate america just
7:09 am
adapting to the cost pressure. can they keep repeating the act? kristen: i think it goes back to delineating between companies and strong balance sheets. not all companies can, so this cost pressure overall, we have seen that in earnings. we saw the ability to pass that through. we have seen certain parts of the market analyzed for that, looking at sectors like consumer staples. i think, taking a step back, we have to look through to the strength of the balance sheet, access to credit, and we also can't completely abandon tech because there is strong growth coming out of tax, and not all tech is created equal. this is a diversified sector with long-term secular trends that have the ability to grow. cybersecurity is a great subsector of tech that will have this ability to grow, just given
7:10 am
the trends and flows coming into what is actually a pretty brand-new sector. jonathan: thank you for being with us this morning to work through some of these issues. kristin bitterly of citi private bank. tom: you know, i haven't done the math. i will do it on the break. it is easy to do on the bloomberg. the cursor can calculate the annual return with one click. but i was suggesting but i would suggest that in this great bull market, the people that have underperformed substantially or just flat out misted, it is jaw-dropping. jonathan: too many people. how many people have come on this program and talked about remaining active, and passives worked out? lisa: and part of it is due to the big tech names. i think about alphabet, up nearly 70% year to date, just to give you a sense of how much that has driven the rally in the behemoth that it is. what happens if those players are not in the mix, if they
7:11 am
underperform? this i think is one of the biggest questions heading into 2022. jonathan: coming up in the 8:00 hour is mandy xu of credit suisse. futures up 18, advancing 0.4%. a lift in this equity market, bouncing back from the biggest one-day loss since early october. in the bond market we are closed for veterans day. we are open in europe. in germany, unchanged. yields -25 basis points, setting us up really quite nicely in december for the final two meetings of the year, from the ecb and the federal reserve. look out for the forecast from the fed. look out for the policy decision from the ecb on the wet next of their bond buying. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president xi jinping has delivered the first doctrine on communist party
7:12 am
policy in 40 years. they have been used to dominate partly politics. october's annual rate was 6.2%, the highest since 1990. key drivers of high prices such as the housing market and a global energy crunch show few signs of fading away soon. that could threaten president biden's bending plan and may pressure the fed to raise interest rates sooner. tesla ceo elon musk has sold $5 billion of shares in the automaker after holding a poll on twitter on whether he should sell 10% of his stake in the company. the world switches person made his first asked the richest person made his first sales -- the world's richest person made his first sale since 2015. disney made a small increase in subscribers to its namesake streaming service. that was part of a disappointing
7:13 am
quarterly report. in south africa, the last president of the apartheid regime has died. he took power in 1989. he removed a ban on the pro-democracy african national congress, released nelson mandela from jail, and held south africa's first all race elections fw to clerk -- fw de klerk was 85. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this was bloomberg. ♪ is was bloomberg. ♪
7:14 am
7:15 am
7:16 am
7:17 am
>> inflation is higher. it is eye-popping. this is a transitory period.
7:18 am
that is what we believe when we look at the data. it is directly related to covid. the quicker we get through covid, the better we are going to be as an economy. jonathan: the t word again. san francisco fed bank president mary daly. from new york city, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. advancing 0.3% on the s&p 500. yields unchanged on bunds. closed in the u.s. for veterans day. tom: what are the ramifications of $1.13, weaker euro? jonathan: if they are worried about inflation, it could have some consequences. this is about bond buying right now for the ecb. how much flex ability with a carryover from the emergency bond buying program for much of next year? tom: as we mentioned, it's rings down the degrees of freedom. it will be interesting to see the fed cadence to the december
7:19 am
meeting. right now in washington, back from baltimore, annmarie hordern with the president, and our bloomberg west and correspondent -- bloomberg washington correspondent. an article on the inflation reality. i have lived it. when you have inflation and your income goes up because of inflation, your taxes go up as well. what is the new tax policy and 6% inflation america? annmarie: the president was talking about the fact that there is wage gains and all of this gross, but you hit the nail on the head in the sense that if you are making more money, but prices are higher, you are not coming out on top. that is really what this administration is facing as they try to go around the country and tap this win -- and tout this win of hard infrastructure and why they need that future spending plan, that they will be dealing with the concerns of
7:20 am
rising not just energy costs, but food, shelter, rent, everything is going up, and that really overshadowed the president's speech yesterday. tom: but then the idea is you've got to get to a tax policy. the gentleman from massachusetts of the house ways and means is going to have a lot to do with that. how important is the cbo report the moderates are waiting for for our new hire tax bills? annmarie: we are getting a little bit of trickling, but it is not on the big ticket items, and potentially they want to vote next week if the rest of that cbo report comes. but we have to wait for that data to come in, and that will be key for those moderates to sign up and vote yes on the build back better agenda. the issue right now the democratic party has with trying to move that forward is the cbo score could potentially take longer than just next week, but it will be key to make sure that upcoming bill is fully paid for
7:21 am
as the democratic party says. lisa: meanwhile, the response to the higher inflation rate is evolving in washington, d.c. a bloomberg opinion columnist said today was the day d.c. democrats stop treating inflation is transitory. do you agree, and housing for can does this? annmarie: most have stopped treating it is transitory. there is concern, from the likes of senator joe manchin, which we have spoken about. that was also very obvious. he has been voicing his concerns about inflation, saying yesterday that it of course is not transitory. but then you have climate hawks like senator warren, senator markey, coming out and saying the administration needs to ease consumer concerns when it comes to gasoline prices, calling on either an spr release or an export ban. so you're seeing it on both sides of the democratic party. it is just different and what
7:22 am
they were -- what they want the reaction to be. you have senator manchin that is going to use this inflation print as a way to slow down or potentially take some money off the top line of the larger fiscal spending plan they have for the human infrastructure side. jonathan: when do we get a fed chair decision? annmarie: you ask me every day. jonathan: i am going to keep asking every day until we get one. annmarie: if i knew, i probably wouldn't be doing this job. i think the timing of this inflation print is making it much harder for the administration because it is not just the top chair position they have to fill. if they change powell, that is four positions they have to fill at a time when they are dealing with serious inflation concerns amongst the electorate, and potentially they are going to get called out for this. jonathan: they have to offer up some kind of package to get some
7:23 am
confirmation, but they have to have a voice within that package that has some credibility on inflation. if you had done this several months ago, it might have been easier, but here we are. tom: i will go with that. my experience in this is is a presidential decision. he will make the decision and that is it, and we move on. jonathan: i agree. but ultimately, the longer he is waiting, the harder it gets. tom: how do we pick the bank of england governor? jonathan: the treasury. tom: not the prime minister. jonathan: well, i imagine there's a conversation there. tom: the queen? jonathan: no, the queen does not weigh in. tom: i don't know. harry kane? jonathan: harry kane does not either. annmarie hordern, thank you. bottom line, it is late to be naming your fed chair, and it is getting more consequential. tom: you dismissed annmarie so rudely, but hasn't this administration been a bit
7:24 am
late on everything? jonathan: yes, they have been late on a range of issues. but on this one particular issue , inflation hasn't faded this year in a thought it would, and they have complicated their ability to get through whoever they would like to get through. lisa: i do wonder if it is too late to try to confirm anyone other than jerome powell. basically, he's got to get confirmed by february, and you have a very split congress, a very split senate that has to weigh in on this. all 50 democrats have to get on board if you want to get through a more progressive type of candidate. jonathan: can you imagine what those confirmation hearings are going to be like, given the data we just got yesterday? lisa: they are going to be really contentious. this is going to be a very difficult one to get through, and we don't have much time. jonathan: we don't hear much about vice chair clarida. tom: i agree. jonathan: and that is kind of this divide between wall street and, say, washington, d.c.
7:25 am
on wall street, people want to understand what happens with vice chair rich clarida because he has been a guiding light for policy at the federal reserve. it is just not part of the conversation right now. tom: and let's remind ourselves, he is a front rate academic on modern monetary theory. dr. coronado is fluent on that as well. i am surprised at his less visible presence. lisa: i do wonder how much the fed really has control over this inflation. in other words, to what degree are they responsible for what we are seeing versus it is really out of their hands. jonathan: so much of this at the moment is political. are you forced into making a political decision that doesn't make much economic sense? lisa: especially when it is hard to parse out on an economic level. jonathan: we need a man who's
7:26 am
got an opinion. peter tchir joins us from academy securities next. from new york city, futures positive 0.4%. yields unchanged on german bunds. your treasury market closed for veterans day. from new york, this is bloomberg .
7:27 am
moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers.
7:28 am
really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at
7:29 am
7:30 am
jonathan: following the biggest one-day loss on the s&p 500 since october 4, we advance a little bit, up 0.3 on the s&p. advancing 17 points. on the nasdaq 100, advancing 0.1%. -- advancing 0.6%. the bond market closed today for veterans day. the bund market backing away from zero again. it was around -10 basis points at the start of november. it backs around to -25. in the italian bond market, about 95 basis points. we were as high as 1.2% in the last couple of months. december is going to be fascinating. the fed decision, the ecb
7:31 am
decision, and then you can call the year over. tom: for you, it will be year is over. you are going to be on capri. jonathan: i will get on the flight after the ecb decision. euro-dollar, how do you push through the potential for divergent monetary policy, if that is how things evolve through the next 12 months? euro-dollar at the lows of the year. we have a $1.14 handle. it is a weaker euro in the mix again morning. tom: on this day every member and's, and here with equity markets moving, really interesting. how does the stock market move with the bond market closed? jonathan: we don't get those worries off the back of sloppy auctions like we got yesterday. tom: should the stock market be closed today? jonathan: yes. lisa: so that we can get off. [laughter] tom: come on. it's a disgrace. jonathan: you think it is a disgrace? tom: i do. it is absolutely dumb. i don't know what romaine thinks
7:32 am
about this, but the bond market is closed. take a day off. jonathan: i don't know that he has as fired up as you are right now. euro-dollar down 0.1%. let's get you some single names and movers this morning and say good morning to romaine. romaine: disney has been one of the bigger disappointment 20 yearly basis. they came out with their earnings. obviously, everyone was focused on disney+. they got to about 118 million subscribers, well short of what the street was looking for. they have got to more than double off of a 100 million person base right now. to get to that, bob chapek basically says don't worry. they will expand disney+ to new markets and have a new slate of content that should help them achieve that number. but this is a company now
7:33 am
running a huge loss in that direct to consumer business, and that is a bigger concern here as well. that loss was much more severe than what the street was looking for. bob chapek made it clear they will have to do a lot more to achieve what they want to achieve. then there's the balance of the parks. that is what was supposed to help them. they had a much smaller profit than what the street was looking for. a lot of that because of concerns going on in their international business, the idea that some of those international parks did not have a smooth reopening as the parks in the u.s. this is a company really being battered now by slower growth and rising costs. we will see how this all shakes out. tesla up for a second straight day. confirmation that elon musk did sell some of those shares. keep an eye on the put call ratio here. that has been creeping hi, and a lot of the short interest coming back into the stock. jan meet -- beyond meat down 20% on earnings.
7:34 am
take a look at earnings for i buying. zillow appears to be doing ok with their algorithms. beazer homes unchanged on the day. a firm up about 25%. the ebita was very disappointing, but they talk about the extension of that relation with amazon. tom: that will be fascinating to see. to be clear, i wish i on shares, but you know. tom: never too late --romaine: never too late, tom. tom: romaine bostick with "the close" this evening as well. it is veterans day, and there are firms that are each different, and they all have military types running them, or military types as employees. no one does it like academy securities and the team with a board that is heavily military based, including general tata.
7:35 am
everyone seems to be from annapolis. on this veterans day, we are thrilled to welcome their head of microstrategy. what is different about -- head of macro strategy. what is different about academy securities with its military san diego background? peter: it is a really fun and interesting place to work. about 50% of the firm's veterans. they still have the expectation of how to act, and it is good. we make sure everyone is informed on what we are trying to do, and it is the responsibility of the nonveterans to mentor veterans. my job is always to work with one or two veterans and get them up to speed on how wall street works and find good roles for them. it is really need to be part of that overall challenge. on top of that, we have 14 retired generals and admirals that serve as our geopolitical intelligence group get that is very hopeful for what i do. there's a lot of great overlap that has been super helpful in analyzing what is going on with china and now russia, saudi,
7:36 am
what is going on with oil. it has been really interesting to watch the growth trajectories, and i am lucky to be a part of it. tom: let's describe this inflation and what it means for retirees, what it means for pensions. this cost-of-living keep up or not? peter: i think this inflation is a multiyear process we are working our way through. two things have changed that people are just starting to dawn on. china has been an agent of deflation for years, if not decades. that has changed. i don't know that they are going to be inflationary, but i don't know that they support the deflationary story longer. the other part of this transition is the esg is really inflationary. when you look at anything coming out of cop-26 or our infrastructure budget, there's going to be a lot of spending and build out to get us on a sustainable energy path. that is going to be
7:37 am
inflationary. so i think this is a multi-year thing we have to deal with. so far, no one is coming to that realization. cop-26 seems to solidify at least the esg as inflationary argument for many. lisa: probably the strongest way you are presenting this thesis in markets is your outright short bet on 30 year treasuries. you said over the weekend you actually believe this is the way to go. yesterday seemed to edify that with a pretty strong move after a really messy auction. how much further does it have to go? peter: i think we should see the thirty-year back above 2.20%. there's a bit of a balancing act. we saw it occur yesterday. fronting yields go way higher -- front end yields go higher and the backend is and respond much at all. people have this expedition that the fed is going to hike, and that is going to slow down growth. i think they are not going to hike, which means the long end
7:38 am
of the yield curve has to bear the brunt of this inflation pressure, and i think that is the next wave. so this is all very difficult to trade right now because as bloomberg points out, there are new stories about macro fixed income hedge funds adding in trouble, so there is a lot of noise within this trend, but that is what i am looking for. lisa: a lot of people will say if the fed does hold on and doesn't raise rates, than what you get is they will have to raise rates more quickly down the line. they will have to respond and curtail growth more dramatically, and that could lead to even lower long-term rates. why do you push against that? peter: partly because whether it is powell or whoever else is chair, if the economy slows, everyone is going to look at me like i slowed the economy. no matter what their models say, deep down it is very difficult to be the one to hike. first they are going to be done tapering before they even think about hiking, and somehow the market refuses to listen to them. i think the market has too many
7:39 am
people who grew up with a different style of fed that had a different reaction function, and this is a new fed with a new reaction function, and they're willing to let things run hot because they are too scared to be the ones to slow this down. jonathan: chairman powell. does he get a second term? peter: i think he should. i think he has done a very good job. one thing that doesn't get talked about enough in my opinion is he actually tried to hike rates. he tried to normalize and had to back off. so he has experience when you have to normalize. so i am not sure why you bring in someone new. when you talk about you maybe need someone more progressive on the fed, i am not even sure what progressive on the fed side would mean. i think the treasury to part supposed to be progressive. if we want to be progressive, policy can change things around. the fed has a mandate. we stick to that mandate. powell has done a good enough job with with spec to markets. tom: this is important. peter tchir, academy securities, of all they do for military, it
7:40 am
says "surveillance" road trip march 31 of next year when the padres open against the giants at petco park. jonathan: the global tour of tom keene. tom: we can fold in peter tchir here, who is always interesting. get some brass from the board of directors and go see tatis opening day, giants-padres. peter: that would be awesome. we can get some of our other generals there. we've got cyber generals. lots of people. so we will get this set up. the padres can't choke like they did last year. lisa: i want to see tom keene's wikipedia searches. i think it would be fascinating, as different people speak, which game is coming up, march 31, 2022. tom: i was on fifth avenue
7:41 am
yesterday talking to this guy from australia, and i had my padres hat on. jonathan: was he from perth? tom: yeah, from the other side australia. but what academy is doing is original. you've got to see more of this frankly across all industries. jonathan: i think it is fantastic. peter, give our best to the team. i've seen that padres hat and t-shirt. in a restaurant, south of 58th. a few drinks were consumed. by one of us, anyway. tom: ♪ i've ever been to brooklyn ♪ [laughter] jonathan: new york just looks beautiful. tom: looks beautiful on radio. jonathan: up 16 on the s&p, advancing 0.3%. this is bloomberg. . ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden admits inflation
7:42 am
is a problem, but insists he has part of the cure. the president says the soon to be signed infrastructure bill is a portion of the plan to overcome the extended effects of the coronavirus pendant. yesterday's inflation report showed that prices are rising at the fastest pace in more than 30 years. it is a rare moment of cooperation between superpowers locked in a geopolitical rivalry. in a surprise announcement, china and the u.s. pledged to work together to slow global warming. they agreed to boost assets to cut emissions in part by tackling methane and illegal deforestation. the deal injects new momentum into the last days of global climate negotiations in glasgow. a federal judge has denied donald trump's request that his presidency diaries, call logs, and others not be given to a congressional panel. they wanted a judge to delay an order to release those documents. the record will be released friday unless a court orders and not to. belarus ramping up the pressure
7:43 am
over all those migrants from the middle east seeking to cross into european union territory. president lucas and says that -- president lukashenko says if poland shuts down the lines for migrants, they will shut down a pipeline of gas to the eu. spacex has launched its third crew of astronauts to the international space station. the falcon nine rocket and its crew lifted off late wednesday from the kennedy space center. it will dock at the international space station later today. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.
7:44 am
7:45 am
7:46 am
7:47 am
>> we are experiencing cost pressure at things like airports and in supply chains.
7:48 am
a lot of our contracts are longer-term, so they haven't manifested entirely yet, but we could certainly see that coming in our business. jonathan: that was scott kirby, ceo of united airlines. you equity market open for business, up 16 on the s&p, advancing 0.3%. into the bond market, closed for veterans day stateside in europe and germany. yields basically unchanged to up almost a basis point. this from sarah house of wells fargo. we're going to see the inflation picture get worse before it gets better. tom: i have not framed a 7% statistic. are we really going to get there? jonathan: apparently, for the likes of wells fargo, we are not done. tom: what we have got here on a day with the bond market closed is equities up, green on the screen. i am seeing on a percentage change basis a nasdaq bounce. jonathan: up 0.6%. i think the bond market being closed is helping out there after the moves we saw
7:49 am
yesterday. tom: we also saw the moves by one elon musk. david wilson looking, as he always does. it is not just tesla, but how about a compare and contrast of amazon and tesla. why those two stocks? dave: you are talking about two companies that make up almost half of the s&p 500 consumer discretionary index by weight. that index is such a grab bag with retailers, bankers, homebuilders, casinos, a bunch of other industries. what is interesting is how much volatility there has been in the relationship between these two companies. i saw this twitter post from a gentleman and his firm. the chart is really compelling. two and a half years ago, you had amazon at a record relative to tesla. then it plunged 94% in terms of the ratio between the two stocks. tom: because tesla did so well. dave: absolutely.
7:50 am
tesla down on elon musk shares and amazon up a bit, but it is clear that is just a blip in terms of the relationship over time between these two can nice -- these two companies that dominate their categories. tom: in terms of the generation down the income statement, they are apples and oranges. dave: they are very different businesses, no question, but they do have a technology component to them. amazon perhaps more explicitly with the amazon web services business, but tesla, you can do a software update straight out of the cars. there's definitely that piece of the puzzle. lisa: there's also the piece of the puzzle that gets relayed to us on twitter, and elon musk tweets definitely causing action. his brother selling shares before he did, basically indicating a question about regulatory oversight. i am not saying they did anything wrong per se. why isn't there more discussion about what the sec thinks about
7:51 am
some of these twitter discussions and polls? dave: there's no doubt the regulators have paid attention over time, but it is not the same thing, asking a twitter poll should sell my stock, as much as tweeting funding secured for buy outs, so it is very different in terms of the nature of the tweets themselves. that is the thing. they want companies and the people who run them to be able to communicate with investors in whatever way they choose. it is just a question of what they are communicating, and that is when the regulators step in. lisa: it also raises the question about the depth of trading around each of these companies. the idea that amazon is a behemoth in every portfolio. so is tesla now. however, there seems to be a more devoted share of traders more actively trading it like a penny stock some days than a
7:52 am
behemoth. dave: there's no doubt that tesla can be a relatively volatile stock from day to day. we have seen that this week also everything that elon musk has been up to, and the disclosure with his brother selling shares. so you're going to have that. it is interesting that this company with a $1 trillion plus market value, and terms of how shares behave, you suggest a much smaller company -- behave, it would suggest a much smaller company. tesla doing well with comparison to amazon, no question. other stocks have done better among big tech. nonetheless, tesla holding its own, amazon struggling a bit. tom: dave wilson down the alley of bloomberg coverage with one david wilson. you and i remember the day and
7:53 am
the evening when martha stewart had to play by the rulebook of wall street. is elin -- does elon musk have the same rulebook? dave: he does, but the question is not insider information in that sense. that is what martha stewart got in trouble for. tom: is he playing by the rulebook of wall street? you have been doing this for 74 years, right? dave: it is hard to say what he is doing is outside the bounds. he is making the disclosures he has to. you can talk about whether those disclosures are sufficient, whether the timing should be different, the nature of the disclosures themselves, but to this point, he's got a whole lot of money. he has to come up with some cash to pay taxes before selling stock. that is a perfectly reasonable sort of approach. tom: david wilson, greatly appreciated their on amazon and tesla. jonathan: the ultimate troll, tom keene.
7:54 am
those tweets out on twitter over the weekend. tom, just say what you think. he is the ultimate troll on twitter. tom: hold on. jonathan: you can't say what you think? tom: i can't. lisa: he will do it anyway. tom: they are over here. jonathan: is that compliance over there? tom: yes, that's compliance. jonathan: we can only go through the timeline, right? a lot of the filing was done in the middle of september to execute some of the trades we have seen executed so far this week, and the twitter pole over the weekend, is that significant for what is about to come next? i've got no idea. lisa: either way, it is brilliant in its messaging. he is engaging his customer culture and be on the edge of what is ok at all times. jonathan: a fantastic company.
7:55 am
$1 trillion penny stock. who would think we would ever talk about that? lisa: tom: you mentioned -- tom: you mentioned the depth the other day. jonathan: proved everyone wrong. i just think it's fascinating we talk about a $1 trillion name as if it is a penny stock. lisa: this raises a question of trading behind that. if you end up with those kinds of moves with a company that actually represents a massive part of the index at this point, what are we talking about in terms of the potential risk on the downside? jonathan: tesla up 2.5%. mandy xu of credit suisse, looking for to the conversation. corporate america is handling higher prices really well, tremendously well. your equity market is still very close to all-time highs. futures this morning up 16, advancing about 0.3%. yields are higher in germany by about a basis point. the u.s. bond market is closed
7:56 am
for veterans day. dk has questions as to why the equity market -- tk has questions as to why the equity market is not closed also. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪
7:57 am
7:58 am
7:59 am
8:00 am
>> liquidity is coming into the market and making its way around to a wide variety of asset classes. >> there is a good alternative right now, and that ultimate of is still equities. >> this idea that we are going to continue to compound earnings at the rate we have is just fantastical. >> don't get used to the last three years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. surly you are with us this
8:01 am


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on