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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  November 11, 2021 9:00pm-11:00pm EST

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warning to remain cautious. haslinda: plus, beijing's political elite hand president xi jinping a key victory, a new ruling that may give him a mandate to rule for life. rishaad: very busy here, certainly a bump for tech stocks listed in the u.s. chinese stocks dragging the index up at one point 5%. the tech-heavy chips moving up. just checking what is going on with the commodities side. iron ore down after a bump up yesterday. elsewhere, looking at sovereigns, three u.s. treasuries extending their selloff, and u.s. 10-year treasuries yielding a 1.56%.
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after veterans day, that trading day continuing in tokyo. relief taking place at, 5.6% to the upside after what happened to those adr's, perhaps a sense that regulation in china is reaching a final conclusion for the time being, at least. haslinda: also, to view a single day, alibaba did pretty well. inflation in the markets front and center. when analyst calls it raging inflation -- one analyst calls it raging inflation and says just because you are seeing a rise in pricing does not mean you are seeing a rise in wealth. some people may think they are getting richer because they are seeing assets go up in price
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while their buying power is being eroded. he recommends -- he says those keeping their money in cash are the ones likely to be affected most. rishaad: with the wages where they are, which is still in a real sense, negative wage growth, this still means we have a transitory environment for inflation, but let's see how that has been reflected amongst treasuries. let's take a look at the moment. how can treasuries behave themselves? looking ahead, we take a look at what we got in terms of the two-year. we have expectations sliding a bit. 10-year yield 2.6%. a slight move to the upside, but indeed, we have this reopen after veterans day, as i said before. the tokyo session at the moment in play as far as treasuries go.
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haslinda: speaking of treasuries, they are having the most treacherous time since the start of the pandemic. we have had so much volatility that it is pretty much a showing distress. we have some questioning how low treasuries can go, and that is the question of the day. rishaad: bloomberg markets' life strategist -- bloomberg market'' live strategist joining us. give us a sense of how these yields are playing into the expectations of inflation as the dollar gets a boost again. >> yeah, certainly benefiting the dollar a great deal. in fact, the longer the federal reserve in particular does not act to get in front of the
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inflation breakout is making traders really push the derivative market even further towards higher interest rates. traders are feeling quite excited that they are winning the case, winning the argument that inflation is going to stick around for longer. that gives them a reason to push short-term interest rates higher. that's good for the dollar. for now, their bets are paying off. as you have seen this week, we are seeing a break out in the bloomberg dollar spot index, rising to new levels. we have seen the dollar beating most of the g10 currencies, especially the euro and aussie and pound. you see treasury yields are responding to what they see in the derivatives market as well, particularly in the belly of the curve. the five-year sector has pushed up. all this while people at the federal reserve are saying they are not sure that inflation is going to stick around. in fact, it may be peaking soon.
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they are not looking forward to any rate changes, but they are not planning to make any adjustments, so the market is doing their work for them. for now, they feel they have the momentum on their side. they can push the dollar higher and they can push yields higher, and visits a win-win situation for them. -- and it is a win-win situation for them. i think it is a bit early to say it is a complete change of path. as you say, it has been a very tough year. you would imagine that after such a huge decline that there will be quite a few short positions out there, so you get a little bit of quickie yields like the alibaba sale yesterday, plus some slightly soothing
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statements in terms of china property. maybe even the fact at the chinese leadership issue seems to be getting resolved. there is some clarity on that. you throw in a few other ideas like the pboc thinking about a triple rate cut as well. put those together, it is a slightly positive narrative. you would not be surprised to see stocks rebound a little bit, particularly if traders are covering short positions. shares could rally 10%, and it would still not reach the midpoint of this year's range. i suggest confidence is very low, and it will take quite a while before it is restored in the greater china markets. rishaad: thanks very much, talking of china, let's get to beijing for the briefing of the communist party. the party passing a historic resolution, cementing xi
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jinping's status in political history, if you will. also future directions, and the big point of consternation for some has been for first -- has been the deferred document passed by the party. this is the sixth recession coming to an end at china -- at one of china's most important political meetings, and a landmark document has been done. haslinda: a key point is that xi jinping has been elevated to the status of mao zedong, and this is a gathering of party elite, state leaders, military chiefs, talk academics, all pretty much endorsing xi jinping's vision for the long-term on the economy. for instance, prosperity was highlighted. the drive to address inequality,
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promote self-reliance in areas of technology, manufacturing, so as you said, it is indeed a significant moment in chinese history. we believe that there for the moment, but subscribers can continue watching at live go. you will find more coming up later today and later this week as well as some of the events you may have missed. let's get to first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: good morning. china announced efforts to phase out coal. china is struggling to meet its power needs and is now ramping up whole -- cold -- coal to record levels. bloomberg has been told top white house officials do not believe that fed chair jay
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powell's sale of shares in a stock index last year disqualify him for a second term. he sold stock worth between $1 million and $5 million last october. some within the administration still have concerns about that trade. mexico's central bank has raised interest rates by a quarter-point for a fourth consecutive meeting. policymakers are sticking to a steady adjustment space even at -- steady adjustment pace even as inflation accelerates. a chinese developer has reported -- reportedly told investors it may miss interest payment deadlines. the company had a $15.5 million coupon do thursday and a near $30 million one due friday.
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it reports that kaisa is still sorting through the matter and that nothing is set in stone yet. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haslinda? haslinda: we have breaking news. china saying it is weighing a $1 billion hong kong ibo. remember, this startup was initially touted as an ipo on shanghai's star board. again, china ev startup hozon weighing $1 billion hong kong ipo. we will get more on president xi jinping's historic victory with our guest next.
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rishaad: plus, we discussed the latest in chinese property startups. ♪
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rishaad: the four-day convention of the communist party coming to an end. there talking at the moment about a party resolution which will be focusing on party achievements -- they are talking at the moment about a party resolution which will be focusing on party achievements, celebrating its history and chief wins. let's get analysis from all of this. haslinda: let's get to the
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freeman chair in china studies at the center for strategic and international studies. good to have you with us. one of the key takeaways is that xi jinping could now be ruling for life and his figure has been elevated to the likes of mouth and down -- of mao and deng. dude: certainly xi jinping sees himself on par with those two leaders -- jude: certainly, xi jinping sees himself on par with those two leaders. he has had an extraordinary impact. i think the big question for us, though, and you just mentioned this -- we have not had a leader for life in china since mao, and that can be a downside as well as up. haslinda: you have to wonder how he will navigate it. he's holding onto power at a
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time that is pretty unstable for china. dissolution people, the young finding it difficult to find jobs. how do you see him navigating, and will common prosperity save the day? jude: i think one of the reasons xi jinping is saying he needs to stay on, that we need a steady hand at the tiller, is precisely because china is looking out at a pretty significant set of headwinds. you mentioned demographics, total productivity slump, some social issues and an increasingly volatile and uncertain external environment for chinese firms. that is precisely one of the things xi jinping is saying, is, "i alone and the one who will be able to tackle these." on common prosperity, and in and of itself, no, common prosperity is about shaving off the edges of the manifest signs of inequality, but if we think
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about common prosperity as the opening salvo in a new phase of chinese policy that will be designed to address social maladies, issues around the real estate sector, closing the regulatory space around some consumer-facing technology companies, addressing some of the issues affecting the cost of living, then i think this could over the stretch of the next decade, make some significant headway. rishaad: you are not suggesting this is an ideological reset in any way? jude: that's a great question. yes and no. it is hard to read the final communique this morning for the verbiage leading up to the 20th party congress and not see that they are clearly seeing the growth model that was working throughout the reform has run out of gas and we are telling you right now that we are
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entering a new phase of china's development and along with that, a new set of ideological constructs. if the subject of your question is -- is xi jinping going full-blown communism? no, i don't think it is that severe, but we should not minimalize the knock on effects of even just shifting the focus of the growth model from aggregate quantity of growth to a more qualitative approach. rishaad: we have talked a little about common prosperity. with that, the notion of rules circulation. if we marry that with, let's say, this tepid involvement with g20 and cop 26, and covid -- xi jinping has not left china for two years -- the question is, is china turning inward?
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jude: it is an important question, and i think the answer is in part. some of the decisions around the insularity are about, as you said, covid. also, the political calendar for xi jinping, the olympics in february, the national people's conference next march, and then the big 1 -- the 20th party congress. xi jinping has a lot on his domestic plate. i think clearly we are going to see a structural inward turn. i think there will be a bit of a reset when he gets to the 20th party congress. he will emerge confident. i think he will have a new renewed mandate and mission, so i think you will see him get out to the world, but i take your question and agree. i think there has been a shift in terms of the communist party's thinking about what the external environment needs, and dual circulation is saying, we
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want to be internationally integrated but on our own terms and avoid some of the falls of supply chain chokepoints, navigating some of the sanction regimes. in the aggregate, i think china will be a more marginally inward-looking country than it was a decade ago. haslinda: right. a headline from the party official at the briefing currently happening, he says she -- xi is at the core call of times, the choice of history. what does it mean for its global vision to be a global player? how does it go -- how does it work from here? jude: i think some of the verbiage around this emerging cult of xi jinping is worrying, but i think xi jinping's core focus, in addition to the domestic challenges we mentioned, is pushing china out to be a global power, what they
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call comprehensive national power, by 2035, which is one of his key goals. ultimately, china, as long as its economy is humming along and has, as xi jinping says, a magnetic or gravitational pull, it will have significant international power. the story is consolidate power through the 20th party congress, really get a mandate for the next five to 10 years and then push out with the global agenda. rishaad: very quickly, we've got a leader who has coalesced power , language or verbiage, as you put it. the thing is you can also coalesce your enemies when you do that. it is a sword of damocles over his head. very quickly. jude: no. we need to accept he is large and in charge for the foreseeable future.
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haslinda: great stuff, great insights. we will continue to follow china's briefing of the communist party planner. subscribers can continue watching on live go and find the big diary entries coming up today. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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su: this is bloomberg markets: asia. we are tracking the fallout of the global supply crunch. the world's biggest meat supplier is finding their labor shortages are limiting production and raising costs in developed nations. the situation is acute in the
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u.s., which has seen labor shortages. the pacific maritime association, which navigates labor agreements at the u.s.'s largest ports, is warning the federal vaccine mandate is going to worsen the supply chain crisis. the ruling is set to take effect in january, and the organization says as many as 40% of its workers are not vaccinated. meanwhile, playmakers will be chasing sales when companies gather for the dubai air show on sunday. there's a good reason for air cargo business to buy up planes. check out this chart -- the boom in demand is causing a spike in rates. cost of shipping goods via air is rising along the most common routes. bloomberg terminal users can read more about these stories in
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our newsletters. haslinda: companies have been weighing in on how to solve the supply crunch. we recently had from the union pacific chairman and ceo that ensuring an adequate labor supply is key. >> it is going to take a while to dig out of the hole we are in, and it is mostly about getting labor into jobs. we need more truckers, more warehouse workers. we just need to be more fluid so we can match supply of capacity with demand for consumers. haslinda: here's the latest business flash -- alibaba's single day shopping festival posted record sales, offering the e-commerce giant a boost following a hike in regulatory scrutiny. the company was hit with a
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record $2.8 billion antitrust find and reported its first revenue missed in two years. reuters says the reintroduction of an app could happen within a year as regulators relaunch their investigation. didi has dismissed the report. rishaad: quick look at the markets, really instilling the fact that xi jinping is now president for life. at the moment, we have reports coming from the conference that xi jinping is the first marxist
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chinese official. tech companies did very well today. looking at japan, we have gdp figures out monday. the nikkei is up as we had to that one-hour-long moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at
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rishaad: it is 9:30 in the evening in new york. wall street had a good day, tech stocks in particular, making themselves felt there, and that is clearly what we are seeing as well. haslinda: taking a look at property stocks, you have it on the screen. pretty mixed picture. evergrande up by 1%. rules for chinese developers to
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issue bonds may be eased, and add to that, evergrande made their payment, a default but not enough to lift all property sectors. just evergrande currently up by 1%. rishaad: we have investors talking about properties. let's take a look at how beijing tried to limit the fallout from that debt crisis. that is something that that -- that is something that has really been gathering steam. help was on the way to help developers tackling debt markets, essentially easing the development crisis they have been facing. we have the head of apac research at cbie? is this just kicking the can down the road? >> i don't think it is. i think the government is trying to restore market confidence and trying to avoid a market wide
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decline. what i'm seeing is the government is going to be so selective of developers. most developers will not be able to assess the credit. i think probably they are going to face some headwinds. overall, we have to realize the fact that construction is essentially dead. that is a headwind in a major sector for sure. rishaad: but it is really masking a lot of other issues here, surely. the demographic challenge facing these developers is something they really have to address. they have overbilled, and that has implications for the wider economy, especially local governments. >> i think demographics is the true side of the story. if you look at metro areas, we continue to see the population
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grow in cities. on the other hand, most seem to be on the so-called lower tier. localized developers are likely to face it as a headwind. i think the government is facing it very differently. 2015, 2016, they are helping. but now, they are not helping at all. if the current policy continues, we might see more defaults going forward. haslinda: give us some perspective on that. how bad would defaults be going forward? when you look at especially junk bonds and yields, they have surged more than 20%, making it even more difficult for companies to come back. >> while we are working for our clients, number one is looking at underlying assets.
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what we are seeing is they are going to enhance their balance sheets to pay off their deaths. the government is going to potentially provide more liquidity to help developers. in my mind, in 2022, we are excited to see some consolidation. haslinda: we know that china's growth going forward will be boosted by innovation and tech. give us a sense of how this will impact demand for perhaps martial real estate. what assumptions are you making? >> i think the marshall real estate market is in the early stages of booming. china, being the second biggest economy, is only 3.8 trillion dollars, a third the size of the
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u.s. as a result, we are seeing more and more investors tapping into the commercial spaces. tech, cold storage, data centers, as well as life-sciences. i think growth is coming to an end, but we are confident to see growth coming from the commercial real estate spaces. haslinda: are foreign investors looking to put their money in china's real estate sector? where should they be putting their money? >> i have to say, demographics are really important. rishaad: what about the invest ability -- investability in this
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sector? some investors tell me there's no interest. what is your take? >> i think it is very investable. we look at the commercial spaces, the transition volume has increased for 2021. the growth momentum will continue, and the center at the heart of what investors love is the coal storage. going forward, i think even more interest is coming toward data centers. i think they are investable, but just in an earlier stage. investors need to partner with local developers to tap into this space. rishaad: good stuff. thank you so much for joining us
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. we are talking china. we are talking about a crackdown on dissent. let's get that story and the rest of the first word news as we get to new york and vonnie quinn. vonnie: chinese president xi jinping has won a mandate to potentially rule for life as a major political meeting wraps up in beijing. he delivers the first doctrine on the party by a chinese leader in 40 years. an official statement highlighted his prosperity, drive, and efforts to promote self-reliance, science, and technology. a hong kong judge has jailed a man for nearly six years. the 31-year-old was convicted last month for violating a security law imposed on the city. the prison term is among the longest in connection to the 2019 arrests. he says he does not regret his actions.
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the u.s. is warning europe that russia may plan to invade ukraine. tensions are flaring between moscow and the u.k. over energy supplies. sources say russia is building up forces on the border. moscow says its military is an internal matter and any -- it denies any aggressive intentions and accuses the u.s. of provocation. ray dalio warning about the effect of inflation on real wealth. online, he said some people make the mistake of thinking they are getting richer, but they don't see that their buying power is being eroded. he adds that the ones most hurt are those who have their money in cash. he says there are better assets to hold. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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rishaad: communist party briefing taking place. this is the latest line coming from it, saying the communist party has a plan to unite the country. saying this is a combination of major theoretical outcomes, that against a backdrop of them suggesting that the current president, who has got this extra term, if not for life, his thoughts are marxism on contemporary china. haslinda: more development out of beijing. still to come, we check in on supply chain trends with an airport logistics operator. that exclusive conversation coming next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: let's briefly check in with markets. let's have a look at some of these benchmarks. we've got lenders in the country saying that they are seeing bad debt rising. looking also at the performance of the jakarta market, down about .2 5%.
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malaysia another when we are watching at the moment. certainly malaysia seeing a .6% gain. positive sentiment taking place for this particular region of the moment, and that is, of course, off the back of we have been witnessing in the u.s. as well. quick check on singapore airlines stocks. they are seeing losses narrow, to some extent anyway. the ceo saying they are seeing strong booking demand, and seeing loss of about .9%. haslinda: staying with aviation, singapore logistics and aviation services providers said revenue rose thanks to growth in cargo. the ceo spoke exclusively to bloomberg about how he sees the business.
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>> with the details out of singapore, clearly, there will be more passenger travel coming up and we will see more flights increasing out of the chinese airport. -- out of chinese airports. we have been working very closely with our customers in terms of the new norm going forward, especially for safe travel. we have been putting a lot of new solutions to drive the new way of traveling for passengers, making it safe to travel around the world. >> we see singapore already opening to selected countries. which markets are recovering the fastest, and which are still suffering, which are still lagging? >> we were all conscious that asia might likely open up first, but when you look at how the pandemic has changed, it is no opening up in asia, we are still
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kind of a bit of a lockdown. a lot of long-haul flights are opening up, but as you saw, singapore is taken off the white list in europe, so now, there is a bit of a question mark as to if we will still get quarantine-free travel to europe. the markets really put singapore into a quarantine of 10 days. hopefully this does not turn out worse and we can have more trouble. i think that will help us do the intercontinental flight connection out of singapore. haslinda: there's been some vaccinated travel lanes as well. malaysia was the big news we sought recently. how do you think that will impact your business? >> that is fantastic news for us. singapore, malaysia is one of the busiest routes in the world. we are actually very happy and optimistic that more will come.
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i think importantly for our cargo business, with more passenger space opening up, we should see better use for our cargo business as well. cargo business has been doing well over the pandemic. global cargo tonnage has gone up 9.8%. we are optimistic in this segment, and we will invest a lot more in our cargo business. yvonne: you mentioned about the demand for cargo. do you think that trend could actually last? how long do you think this high demand is going to be? >> cargo business growth primarily is driven by challenges we see in the ocean freight segment. ocean freight has gone up tremendously.
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cargo is now relatively cheaper. from as high as about 12 to 13 times more expensive, it is now down to about three times more expensive, and because of the supply chain crunch, we are seeing a lot of demand for air cargo still because people seem to get goods into the countries that are in need, and air cargo is still a reliable mode of transport. yvonne: it seems like the tide is turning for singapore and the aviation sector. i'm wondering how close you think the company is to being back to pre-pandemic levels. >> based on forecasts, we will see recovery only some time in 2024-2025, so it very much remains uncertain in a sense. you can see in china, there was a spike as well. we are concerned the spike may
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affect travel confidence, but we are setting ourselves up for growth. we had a cross trained quite a bit of workforce. haslinda: tech stocks still down about 5% today. if you are a bloomberg subscriber, you can catch up with all our interviews by using our interactive function. you can also join the conversation, send instant messages to our team. do check it out. tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: welcome back. negotiators at climate talks -- at the cop climate talks are braced to go into the weekend with key issues still unresolved. among the holdouts, china signaling it will not support a phaseout of cold -- phaseout of coal. >> it is a big day here in glasgow, officially the last day of the cop 26 climate talks. countries are negotiating rules to do with climate trading,
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rules to do the missions, and on climate pledges they submitted. there are also sticking points on climate finance where rich countries have to give money to developing countries so that they can cut emissions to use green technology or they can adapt to a warming planet or even if they have to get compensation for impact from climate change such as floods and hurricanes. it is not easy to get 200 countries to agree to common language, but that is what will be needed for a deal here in glasgow. if we get one is not clear, and if there is not a deal today, we will be here reporting on saturday. rishaad: at the center, we have china opposing talks to phaseout coal. let's get to more on this.
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our senior editor for energies and commodities, jason morgan, joins us now. jason: i'm sure the people are quite disappointed that china seems to be hanging on so grimly too cold. it is the world's biggest producer of coal, the biggest consumer of coal, but the reality on the ground is they are coming out of an energy crisis and have had to raise output to record levels in order to forestall the worst element of the energy crisis, but we have had a lot of policymakers making cautious comments, making clear that china needs to make sure that the economy is supported and that people don't freeze over the winter months. ultimately, china does want to get rid of cold -- there's no question about that -- but i think the pace of its receding use is going to significantly do
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point -- significantly disappoint a lot of people. haslinda: china has been pushing its renewable energy push as well, correct? jason: yeah. this is the paradox. the biggest coal consumer is also the biggest champion of renewable energy. there has been a massive buildup of wind and solar, and they are eager to add even more renewable energy. i guess when you look at an economy the size of china's, you realize they need to be pulling on virtually every lever in terms of energy supply to keep an economy growing at 5%, 6%, 7% a year. rishaad: thank you very much for that, jason rogers, our senior editor for energy and commodities in shanghai. let's get to what has been said at this briefing taking place in beijing. they have been talking about
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democracy, saying that democracy cannot be the same globally, according to officials there, and saying that the u.s. summit for democracy and tends to divide the world, and saying that the ideology is not an exclusive patent of the west. there we go. lots of other noise coming out of this. they stamped xi jinping perhaps as leader for life. the combination of outcomes said the party's theory will in action result in them presenting a more credible, lovable image as well. weighing in on democracy. there we go. that's what we have in the moment at beijing -- in beijing. we do have xi jinping being stamped on the very nature and the very being of the communist party.
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a historical resolution cementing the president's status. yvonne: all in an effort to finalize xi jinping's vision for the future. the company is set to go public in the u.s. to one of the largest specs ever. singapore airlines says its value sheet improved last porter and offered a more promising outlook as the city state abandons its policy. they posted a $16 million loss compared with $1.7 billion earlier. sales almost doubled. singapore allows visitors from about a dozen countries to enter without quarantine. thanks invested about $3 billion in india this year, and it could commit up to $10 billion next
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year. softbank investment advisor told bloomberg that fintech is the biggest opportunity in the country. india has been a bright spot for softbank, which has been an early investor in several organizations. >> [inaudible] this is the right option. these are the right valuations. haslinda: 70 applicants remain for a license to provide cryptocurrency services. previous data showed lockouts, two rejected and three were dismissed. rishaad: let's have a look at markets, further checking in on what is a bit of a rally taking place right across the border.
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new zealand being left out, others also such as shanghai, which is just off a fraction, currently down, perhaps putting that inflation debate to bed for the time being. of course, it will turn up again. naturally, those tech stocks doing very well. has linda: you talk about the inflation debate, and that is playing out in the bond markets, not only in asia but australia as well as new zealand. it is aunt and center. we keep saying, how low can you go? -- it is front and center. rishaad: more noise coming out of the party briefing taking place after the four-day plenum, weighing in about democracy and talking about it not being the same globally, talking about common prosperity first needs common development.
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malay weighing in on intellectual democracy, saying that it is a game of the rich and something ruled by capital, so that is what we have at the moment. that is the scene in beijing. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ haslinda: it is almost 11:00 a.m. in singapore and shanghai. welcome to "bloomberg markets: asia." rishaad: we have the chinese tech sector getting a live from alibaba's blowout day. yvonne: inflation worries
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pressuring markets amid fears central banks will be late tightening. with the market, it is about bonds, bonds, bonds. yields have been searching. some say bond market is at the most treacherous since the start of the pandemic. markets expecting that the fed would have to move faster on rate rises than anticipated. that 30-year option not helping sentiment. yields surging and, of course, the dollar rising on the back of those yields. rishaad: let's briefly check in and look at what is going on with ty stocks, which are moving to the upside. the bot -- the baht leading
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exchanges to the upside, more optimism the country is undertaking, and the and fte could be opening up higher. the rupee about .2% down against the greenback. haslinda: let's get back to the bond market, treasuries in particular. bond market traders are trying to force the fed to react to surging inflation, but some banks, including the fed, keeping to the stance that inflation is transitory. we talk about the market facing so much liquidity, so much volatility. we are seeing the highest volatility since april 2020. rishaad: looking at 10-year
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yields, 1.56%, a move we have seen right across the curve. there you have it right now. of course, this is not going to have an effect on the dollar. the dollar has been strengthening as well. we have spreads whitening into the future. haslinda: let's bring in the head of treasury research and strategy at ocbc bank. take us through, what is the key take away from the bond market? there seems to be expectation the fed will be forced to raise rates faster than anticipated. >> we have seen the market focused on trends. i think the key here is the u.s.
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monetary policy, while they have managed to avoid a taper tantrum, if they can avoid an interest rate 10 from remains to be seen. i think once we see inflationary expectations being entrenched and being embedded, i think the fed will have a much tougher job . you are right to say that bond markets will have a very challenging time, and i don't think there is going to be any kind of resolution on this. it is still going to be very much unknown what the central bank will hit from here.
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haslinda: what is your inflation hedge? >> and lot of people are looking at inflation hedges. crypto has been getting a bit of wind. i think the issue here is that it is a question of timing. the fed wants to delay it as far as possible in order to ensure more growth. the market may not give them that long a window. we think they will probably have to hike rates by the second half of next year, but if they will hike one or up to two or three times is still a matter of debate. we have seen the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.6%, but
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total jobs remain at $3.2 million. it is clear you will see bond market pressures hit ahead rather than behind. rishaad: the question is, what is it pricing in right now if you look at the yield curve, and if you look at the tips curve, the negativity would suggest a lot of people are taking out a lot of protection against inflation. is there a disconnect between the fed and the market? >> i think the disconnect is really growing. i think at some point, there would be continued pressure for the nominal yield to rise. 10-year treasury yield we're looking at is still 1.5 percent, 1.7%, so there is still room to grow, but -- [indiscernible]
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haslinda color that takes us to our question of the day. how low can u.s. real treasury yields go? it is already in the negative. >> at some point, the recalibration really has to happen more on the nominal yield side. that's why i think we will probably see a push higher in the nominal yield back to the 1.7 percent, one point 75% range. at this juncture, markets are still trying to test the result of the central bank. i think at some point, we are going to see a bit of a split in terms of the central bank, and it will be interesting to see who president biden nominates
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for the new fed chair because that were kind of set the tone for the monetary policy fund. i think the sense is the nominee will still be fairly dovish like powell, but we will have to wait and see. rishaad: stay with us. we will have more on what is going on in china. "the financial times" reporting on the meeting that is taking place. there's a lot of speculation, and some of it has yet to be confirmed. the reports as we are likely to see toshiba splitting itself into three different organizations. it is also down to the $20 billion offer coming through from a conglomerate of private equity groups, including cbc in april, which did help to boost
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the share price. that is at the moment toshiba. it's share price has gone up to 2%, and that was before we went out to lunch there in tokyo. haslinda: we will continue to track development. for now, let's get first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: the u.s. is rush -- is warning europe that russia may plan to invade ukraine. sources tell bloomberg washington has been monitoring a buildup of russian forces near the ukrainian border. moscow says military development on its territory are an internal matter. and it accuses the united states of provocation as well as denying aggressive intentions. u.s. officials do not believe fed chair jay powell's sale of stocks last year disqualify him from a second term.
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our sources say some within the administration still have concerns about that trade. chinese developer kaisa has reportedly told developers it may miss interest payment deadlines. the company had a coupon due thursday and another friday. both have 30-day grace periods. i warning that -- a warning that kaisa is still sorting through the matter and that nothing is set in stone. rishaad: coming up, we will look at what is next after china's political elite handed president she and historic mandate.
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haslinda: why softbank may commit up to $10 billion in india next year. that's coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: we are taking you back to beijing where that life meeting is happening and we are hearing from an official saying china welcomes all countries to participate in the developer initiative of china and that china must aaron t quality of opportunity, rules, and that china should not force other nations. president xi jinping delivering the first doctrine on the communist party history in 40 years. rishaad: monitoring all things
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china today. with our chief north asia correspondent. i lot of, how can i say, justification, talking about common prosperity. things are being framed ideologically here. what is your take from that? stephen: it is the communist party of china. they talk in these ideological terms. essentially what the communist party officials are doing is putting a big, nice bow, wrapping up the plenum but of course wrapped up yesterday that essentially sealed this historic document, proclamation if you will, that xi jinping will be enshrined in the party way going forward, and it essentially gives him a mandate to potentially rule indefinitely. there is no heir apparent named or even promoted to a position where we would all assume this
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would be the person, much like was done when jintao was -- when jintao handed off to -- much when hu jintao headed off to xi jinping. the headlines coming across, yes, they do talk in some ideological terms. they are talking about the party resolution. it will unite the party's will and action, the resolution to rally the party like unbreakable iron. that is the ideology and the rhetoric we hear often times, and again, they talked about this summit for democracy. joe biden has called for 100 different leaders of democracy to meet in december, essentially saying the u.s. summit for democracy and to divide the world. rishaad: xi talked about marxism
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for contemporary china. stephen: yeah, we could talk about the mouth catch the -- the mao theory -- or xi theory. did i say mao? some of these things they are talking about, common prosperity first needs high-quality development, and that is key because with the geopolitical issues with united states, china wants to become more self-sufficient, and to become more self-sufficient, they need higher quality manufacturing, higher quality products, higher and semiconductors and the like. that will be a very big priority. haslinda: thank you very much for that. chief north asia correspondent stephen engle. still with us, the head of treasury research and strategy at ocbc bank. some of the key takeaways for
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you in terms of this plenum. >> it is quite clear that stability is going to be a key theme. we have seen china's economy has grown quite dramatically from the second quarter two the third quarter. it is quite interesting because policymakers have reacted quickly. they have actually put price caps on coal and ramped up production. on the property side, they have given a lot of reinsurance,
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basically assuring that funding will be available. i think in terms of the crackdown on the regulatory industries, it will be a question of which issue will fall. they have seen more economic efficiency to something that is small, equitable, and that will be a big question overall. i think we just have to live with a little bit of uncertainty, but my sense is that the focus really will be on how u.s.-china relations will grow from here. rishaad: quickly, is this v-shaped recovery in china turning into a w? >> i think it will be a little bit subdued, but i hope that the right arm will be --
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[indiscernible] it is going to be a little bit lopsided, but i think that should work quite well. i think they will try to basically mitigate some of the risk on the downside on the growth side. it is not like they are not aware. it is a question of how fast and how impressive they want to grow. rishaad: great stuff. thank you very much, and have a great weekend. and the tension summit taking place right now, the former advisor to the people's bank of china talking about evergrande's problems, saying a problem like
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evergrande's is a controllable one and china has strong adjustment capability. that is the former pboc advisor. haslinda: still to come, a look at some of the top analyst recommendations across markets. meantime, the spi pretty flat today. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: your back with bloomberg markets, having a look at bitcoin at the moment, down 55,000 bucks. let's get to our cross assets
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team editor. how is bitcoin looking now as possibly an inflation hedge these days? >> it is looking decent simply because it has gone up a lot. it is near record levels, and the worries about inflation are starting to come to a head, but day today, is is not so much because in the past day, we have had a lot more worries and bitcoin has actually pulled back from those record levels, and earlier in the year, it was really not doing well as inflation worries started to come up. it is somewhat of a hedge, and that is the narrative of what people are saying in the markets because it is kind of independent from some other assets in some other ways, but it is not necessarily the greatest hedge. haslinda: looking to the crystal ball for us. what is the outlook for bitcoin?
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>> one thing that is interesting, they have an upgrade coming sunday, and it is supposed to help with security, privacy, reduction fees, and the expectation's top coins could do a little better, so it could you well into the weekend, but it is always a little bit volatile, and cryptocurrencies can fall as fast as they rise. we will have to see, but often upgrades do help. haslinda: thank you so much for your time today. let's get to our morning calls. >> they are looking to the congress saying this will be a catalyst for a rebound of chinese stocks, particularly in offshore markets. you are essentially seeing stocks at the low end of their
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five-year. they are expecting 6% returns, also upgrading singapore and indonesia as well, but they have downgraded india and south korea to market rate. rishaad: big day for alibaba, better than expected for some. not just alibaba but some of its peers. >> everybody out there clicking and buying. the really interesting trend, saying alibaba achieved a new norm. fidelity also saying that you saw the increasing awareness of sustainability among the platforms, which is notable moving forward for sustainable growth, and jeffries had an interesting point about how
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quick some of the online sales were, which is obviously what consumers were looking for, particularly about that one-hour delivery being met. you have seen the hang seng index jump, but we know that is on the back of this report, that didi could be relaunching its app in china. haslinda: singapore units of coinbase and bytedance are among the 70 remaining applicants to provide services in the city. the review of applications is in process. less than 100 -- let's -- now less than half of the 170 that applied last year. didi jumped on thursday before paring some of the gains on a report it is ready to relaunch its app in china. reuters says reintroduction could happen by the end of the year and has regulated ramp-up's
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. ride-hailer grab diminished in the third quarter with the pandemic denting demand for services. it posted 988 million dollars, higher than the 621 million dollars a year earlier. the company is set to go public in the u.s. rishaad: we have been talking with our guests about people turning positive. alibaba has turned negative now. having a look at the tech index in hong kong, and seeing how that is at the moment because it was significantly higher. there you go. we have at the moment tencent on the weight of 1.3%. up 4%, due to the best
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ever singles' day we saw in alibaba. pretty much flat for composites, shanghai and change in, saying declines at the moment. this party plenum continues so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go to to get yours.
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>> it looks like a happy fraud and the markets. alibaba had a strong single day performance. tech stocks are trading in hong kong. rishaad: things are being dominated. the leadership is getting a boost.
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vonnie: right before that virtual meeting with biden, xi jinping has won a mandate to potentially rule for life. xi developed the first doctrine on the commonest party in chinese history in years. in an effort to provide several lines and technology. mexico's central bank has raised interest rates for a fourth consecutive meeting. warning about the effects of inflation on real wealth after
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the u.s. cpi hits the highest since 1990. he said some people made the mistake of thinking they are getting richer. he adds that the ones most hurt are the ones that have their money in cash. a hong kong judge has jailed a man for nearly 60 years. the 31-year-old was convicted last month. the national security law improved on the citywide invasion. the written term is among the longest in connection to the 2019 unrest. he says he does not regret his actions. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haslinda: we have inflation dominating sentiment. let's look at some of those
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inflation linked assets. we have investors increasing. we have two year treasury yields up this week alone. this is the biggest jump since 2019. this is the best week since may. taking a look at where we are in terms of those tech stocks. trading in hong kong. alibaba shrugging off scrutiny. tencent -- alibaba not trading higher. let's look at developers in china. the hang seng is a negative territory.
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coming down about 2.6%. rishaad: let's look at indian companies as they turned vocal about their inflation concerns. let's go to the mumbai po chief. what are we expecting from this data? i like the fact that they do have expectations above two decimal places. >> that is correct. the problem is after a four month time when inflation did ease, we are seeing that inflation is inspected to edge higher to 4.4%. that is probably the start of inflation. once again rebounding. bloomberg economics spiting inflation to rise above.
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that is where the problem starts. the price pressures have been rather sticky. this is primarily because the government decided to -- that had an impact on headline inflation. what we are now seeing is the second round impact from -- with everything from transportation to household budgets. it makes an important cocktail for entertainers. >> that is right. what will the rb idea from here? the policy will be hard to maintain. >> absolutely. what i think will happen is they
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are going to retain this. the next financial year is where the problem starts. growth does take a better foothold. these extreme era measures cannot remain in place. the central bank would have to draw with liquidy. some members within the mann -- the monetary policy committee are already making noises about steep negative rates in india and how it might create imbalances. that scenario will probably be correct. >> india is getting an endorsement from softbank. they have five to $10 billion earmarked in investment in the country.
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>> this is the right valuation. as i said, the quantum of capital we are able to invest is not that high. they are raising 200 or $300 million. the ticket size has come down dramatically. this is like investing in 15
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companies, $200 million each. we have a local office. that is working hard at building relationships. they have been advising them. when we are ready to raise capital, -- it is not just investing. it is also following on. you follow on overtime. a lot of investments we have done over the past few years, we have put new money in as capital. >> you said you are looking to
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invest again. making an exit in 2018, what was the thinking then and what is the thinking now? >> we did not know how the company would look. we followed the progress. this was going to be one of the two major players. we did not know how this would look.
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>> just looking at toshiba's markets. they just got to back -- got back to work in tokyo there. a 2% gain. 1.6% on the day. we were in violation of ethical standards. they are recommending that there needs to be a more conscious ever to make the board more diverse and the board has shown excessive caution and also went on to say executives that did not make an illegal approach jointly with the regulator in japan regarding the exercise of voting rights. a big turnaround at toshiba.
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>> still to come, we discussed the role of natural gas. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> negotiators are racing to go
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into extra time over the weekend. key issues still unresolved. among the holdouts, china signaling it won't support a phaseout. >> it is a big day here in glasgow. 200 countries negotiating rules that have to do with carbon trading. there is also a sticking point on climate finance where rich countries have to give money to developing countries so they can cut emissions through the use of green technology or they can adapt to a warming planet or even if they have to get compensation for impacts on climate change.
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that is what will be needed for a deal here in glasgow. whether we get one is not clear. if there isn't a deal today, we will be here reporting on saturday. >> lng is in the focus. joining us exclusively is the managing director. thank you for joining us. what were your main takeaways? for somebody that was involved with gas which is far cleaner than coal? quite the focus of the government is pushing toward clean energy.
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you can see announcements by big industrial houses. it is a difficult target. i think it is possible. >> absolutely. you're making this transition. the near-term goal is to increase the share of the energy mix in india. how does that dovetail into your industry? >> you can see it in natural gas. the incremental demand may have
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shared more -- i think that percentage will change. >> talk to me about the energy mix. what percentage will that be in terms of five or 10 years down the road? >> the correct policies have not been announced. there are still some things that need to be done and implemented.
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i think there are a few more on the line. i think with the right marketing with the prices, i think that is the biggest hurdle. that free marketing was not there. the new policy is a complete free market. that is a big plus. more needs to be done. i think the government is proactive. especially this government. i think that kind of trickles down. there will be a big boost in natural gas. >> i am just wondering how
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achievable the targets are. we know that india once gas. how challenging would that be question mark what would that take? >> any sort of artificial price caps need to be on the move. whether it is all gas or new gas. the government would be more than happy for anyone to come and check.
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that process has been implemented. that is still under control pricing. >> current prices don't take into account the increase in the international market. >> one is the domestic gas. one is from the offshore. one is this free market price that it was being sold out. the third is the weighted average price.
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prices remain strong. there is a demand at that price that is viable. my thing is always market price. let the market decide. they dropped one or two dollars because the supply increase was not there. rishaad: that is all we have time for. thank you for joining us. that was the chief executive. let's have a quick look at
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indian markets. some of those copies making waves as well. we have a positive picture. banks are lagging. looking at what they have been saying, we have the amalgamation of the units there at the moment. this will be effective as of yesterday. that is what we have right now. a lot more is coming your way. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> leanne cooperman says tax the rich, don't vilify them. >> they did double down on that. they said the wealthy should be paying more in taxes. >> the general populace is not in alignment with the progressives. you so that election in new jersey and virginia. they dropped the proposal to have this tax on gains. >> this is important at the
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moment when the vilification of the rich is gaining steam. the idea that people feel like there is a fair share to be paid and that the wealthiest individuals are not paying it. what is the backdrop leading to the increasing call for the fair share? rather than trying to close loopholes? >> it is the income disparity was in government policies. go back to 2008. mr. bernanke had to rescue the economy. he said the best way to do that was to get wealth up because wealth leads to consumption. best way to do that was to get the stock market up. 80% of the stocks listen to the people. income disparity group. >> leon, i have to get to the heart of the matter in 2021.
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here is the bottom line. we have a definition in this nation that 400,000 is filthy rich. if you have a full-line doctor, surgeon, whatever and the spouse is working as well, they are paying 400000 and they are deemed by liberals to be rich. with all your experience growing up dirt poor. his 400,000 rich? in 2022? >> i don't think so. when i look at what they have to go through to get their degree of being able to practice, doctors and then control over there income, i believe rich people should pay more in taxes. the question we have to deal with as a nation is the question of what the maximum tax rate should be on wealthy people. the government has to decide
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that. all of this talk about wealth taxes is baloney. real estate gains, giving of that, get rid of carrot interests, raise the tax rate. we don't need new forms of taxation. >> i want to go into something that you were talking about. the idea of monetary policy pushing up equity pricing and that that does not reach everybody. do you think that monetary policy, where it has been has exacerbated the divide that has led to the discussion that you're talking about right now? >> i would say so. you have to go back. bill clinton did not vilify wealthy people. ronald reagan did not vilify wealthy people. i respect obama has an individual but he started this whole thing. i wrote him a letter nine years
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ago and i said you are basically telling 99% they are being screwed by the 1%. tell them with a lot of hard work and luck, they could be part of the 1% instead of vilifying the wealthy? i think the road is a better place because of bill gates, jeff bezos, people like that. i don't see a reason to vilify them. i have no problem with taxes. i am giving away all of my money. >> a quick look at markets. we do have tech at the moment compelling the hang seng to the upside. this is up to -- two tenths of
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1%. we have monetary policy tightening. >> that is it for this edition of bloomberg markets: asia. the best of daybreak middle east is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide. from silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. emily: i am emily chang.


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