tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 22, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EST
♪ >> the call on the fed really is the derivative of the call on the u.s. economy. >> anybody who says they can nail down inflation forecasts over the next year probably has too much confidence. >> it is unsurprising that economists are all over the map. >> probably -- going forward in our economic process. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. ferro off. we had to beg kailey leinz to come in. we are thrilled she could join us this morning. so many stories this morning centered on the president. does he pardon the beast? have the turkeys already been pardoned? lisa: have you seen the pictures of the turkeys that are going to
be pardoned on a hotel bed? tom: we are going to move on from that. we will move onto the dovetail of markets into the global response of pandemic, now pushing 20 months old. angela merkel, she move zero -- she moves euro. lisa: she says there will probably be restrictions necessary to curve the wave. i am suppressed markets aren't moving more. we were seeing the euro respond, but pretty much everything else shrugging it off area remember when people would worry about the idea that perhaps we would see a third, fourth, fifth wave? that is not what we are seeing in markets right now. tom: what we see is recalibration to a new productivity. tracy alloway and bloomberg businessweek reading up goldman sachs optimism on productivity. you see across markets evolving into december.
it is to labor -- a great bull market. kailey: you are seeing these concerns playing out in the fx channel. what the fx market is worried about is any concerns from growth. does it continue to feed into that idea that the equity market isn't completely unattached from what is happening in terms of the economic outlook, given the earnings are still solid. the bull market is still rolling on. tom: the economic data we will see will be extraordinary. futures now up 15. the vicks 18.14 -- the vix 18.14. 10 year yield, 1.58% per year out, one dollar $.15, one dollar 14 cents, $1.13. bouncing off of a $1.1250 level earlier this morning.
you've got a brief, and it does center around economic data. lisa: the idea that we are seeing the weakness of dental additional restrictions in europe, and bond markets, and fx markets, not in stock markets. why? because low yields or underpinning the dynamism we see and equities. some people have accused me of being bullish. [laughter] kailey: what? never. lisa: but there is a difference between an economy growing very quickly and getting momentum and dichotomy that is still under the thumb of "central policies. those are very different realities. 10:00 a.m., u.s. october existing home sales are expected to climb just a bit. they are not expect to decline as much as usual. this is going to leave a lot of people to think we will see even more housing starts, which we have seen already explode over the past year. at 11:30 a.m., beget a $58 billion sale of u.s. treasuries. very interesting to see what the
demand is like, giving some of the rate hike expectations that have been brought forward. $58 billion a five-year notes being sold as well. this is more interesting to me given the idea that people are now pricing in a greater number of rate hikes in this cycle, not just a sooner lift off cycle. atlanta fed president raphael bostic is planning to join bloomberg television. how much has he heard from vice chair rich clarida, when he same out -- when he came out and said we may have to accelerate the paper? we will be watching that very closely. this is going to be an interesting one. tom: for powell, brainard, the calendar is today. great focus on tomorrow as well, as the president migrates to nantucket with his family for the holidays. we will not migrate to international falls, minnesota. jim paulsen knows that and joins
us today from the great state of minnesota. your statement is one of the clearest i have seen. you went back to 1982 on inflation. you said, what happens if we get elevated inflation? then you brilliantly dovetail it into a savings level at a 1978 level. this is a clinic. jim paulsen, why should we calm down? jim: i looked at the atlanta fed's 10 forward consensus inflation expectations, and kind of asked, how does the economy do when inflation expectations are higher or lower. we are worried about it being higher right now. what i found was the most everything in the economy, real gdp growth, real disposable
personal income growth, consumer confidence, job creation, profitability, all of that does better when the inflation expectations were 3% or above than they do when it is 2% or less. it is interesting because the fed's target is 2%. the whole idea is to bring inflation back to that level. the reality is when you look back historically, economy has done worse when we tamp down inflation expectations to that low level. we can't handle runaway inflation, certainly not 6%, 7%, eight prevent inflation. that will be disastrous if it is sustained. but if we fall back to 3% rather than going back to 2%, that might actually be a good thing. i think depressing inflation too much can depress animal spirits and lead to too much pessimism and concern about the future, which leads to conservative cannot behaviors. they be a little higher inflation could stoke animal
spirits a little bit and lead to better economic outcomes, so part of our fear of remaining higher inflation might not be well-placed. lisa: this is going directly to the adam posen school of thought, where perhaps this federal reserve ought to rethink what their target is for inflation and allow it to move to more of a 3% rate. what does that due to the bond complex if we are talking about negative real yields? does that mean they just go more negative and the fed has to remain that much more accommodative to achieve that? jim: ultimately, but i have looked at on the bond yields is if we -- we have been sustaining at 2% inflation, and we have had yields of 3% on the 10 year. i think if we sustain more at 3% of the cycle, ultimately the 10 year yield is going to hit 4% little more at some point, so
even the funds rate, you can look at end of cycle funds rate close to that as well before the other end of the cycle. we are a long ways from that. it could happen very quickly. i still think we are going to maybe see 2% before the end of the year on the 10 year if these inflation numbers are coming in hot. lisa: do you think that equity markets could sustain their valuations with a 4% 10 year yield? kailey: given 1.75% spooked the market earlier this year, i would say probably not. i am stuck on 2% by year-end because that is what we all thought coming into 2021. we remained at least when he five basis points down from that , more than 40 this morning. get me there. how? jim: 4% could kill the equity market. i agree with that. but i think it is a ways off. i think the market can handle rates below 3% probably pretty well, particularly with growth
doing well. in the short term, i am a bit concerned that we could head into a period where covid is knocking down economic growth again and economic reports rollover at the same time we are still having supply chain inflation pressures, and if we get a combination for a few months of higher inflation reads at the same time that we have economic surprises rollover more negatively, we could have a pseudo-stagflation feel that is difficult at the same time growth is weakening. i don't think it will persist, but it could create pressure. tom: could you frame doubled you to return for equities next year? jim: my feeling, my best guess at this time is we are going to hit around 5000 on the s&p sometime next year.
i think we are also going to have a 10% to 15% correction before we do that. i'm looking at $220 earnings for the end this year. i think it will be $240 by next year. the average of the last 40 years is 20.7 times earnings. if i put that number under $240, i think we might see that. i think we're going to have a pretty nasty correction. tom: that is the to cystic everyone at plate -- these to stick everyone is playing with. lisa: a lot of people say it is going to be rockier in the back end of next year. nonetheless, all over the map when it comes to predictions, yet there is the feeling that the fed may be more patient and
let inflation run hotter for longer. 4% treasury yields, what would that do to equities? tom: that is a not -- that is outlier call, let's be clear here. lisa: based on what we heard from bill dudley another former fed officials, can this gain traction? what does it do? tom: i think it is one of the scenarios out there, but 4.00 is a lot different from 3.25%. kailey leinz in for jon ferro here on tv and radio. a seattle slew of economic data on wednesday. we squeeze in all of that weekend data as well, and then onto december and the jobs report. please stay with us. they futures up 15. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: in suburban milwaukee,
wisconsin, an suv sped through barricades and into a christmas caray -- christmas parade. police arrested one person. they are not saying anything about a possible motive. a police officer did fire his gun, trying to stop the vehicle. the kremlin is dismissing u.s. claims that there is a russian military buildup for a possible invasion of ukraine. president putin accused the u.s. of trying to increase tensions with allegations. pfizer says its vaccine proved 100% effective against coronavirus in 12 to 15-year-olds. pfizer and its partner biontech are reporting results from a longer-term analysis of a phase three trial. the data is being submitted to regulators in the u.s. and elsewhere as the company seeks full approval of the shot. former bankers at credit suisse have told investigators the bank still helps u.s. clients hide accounts from the irs, according
to a filing in a civil lawsuit. in 2014, credit suisse paid $2.6 billion in penalties and agreed to stop the practice. the bank says it continues to cooperate fully with the authorities. the u.s. private equity giant kkr has offered to buy telecom italia for $12.2 billion, a 46 percent premium to friday's close. kkr's offer is likely to be opposed by the biggest shareholder visit andy -- shareholder vivendi. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪
biggest cost-cutting bill for working-class and american families indicate in this country, and it is going to be costs that are persistent problems for americans in their lives. tom: brian deese on fox news. we thank jack fitzpatrick, joining us. futures up 14. angela merkel talked about virus distress in germany and brought the futures back. dow futures up 97. lisa and i watching euro, $1.1276. weaker euro through the day. jack, i would suggest any first-term president, maybe it is a different first-term provide an, does a recalibration around the conversations of the holiday season. are we going to see bodies move in and bodies move out at the
biden administration as we wander into january? jack: the most obvious answer to that would be that heading toward thanksgiving, the president is supposed to speak on the economy tomorrow before taking a break for thanksgiving and going to nantucket, and there's the expectation that before thanksgiving, maybe in conjunction with tomorrow's comments, he is going to talk about who will be confirmed, reconfirming jerome powell or confirming lael brainard to head the fed. outside of that, i am not sure if we've got to the point where inflation concerns would lead to people being on the outs in other economic positions, but that a sort of the point of focus right now in terms of the cost of a thanksgiving dinner, what people are saying about the state of the economy. i think in terms of personnel decisions, there's a lot of focus in washington on the fed decision. tom: jared bernstein is not
going to make or break the elections. what is the political debate you detect over rising inflation? jack: a lot of the political debate over rising inflation has probably focused, may be disproportionately, on this upcoming bill in congress, the spending and reconciliation bill. in the congressional budget office score came out, it could definitely imply inflationary pressure based on the way the spending is frontloaded, even if it is close to paid for over 10 years. he first five years would at about $790 billion to the deficit. i would say that seems to have a disproportionately small effect on inflation compared to everything else with the reopening of the economy, supply chain issues, the overall fiscal aspects the government has taken over the last year and a half to
try to push up demand, but it tends to get funneled into a focus on the legislation in congress and the key legislation the president has looked for, even though that is not necessarily the main reason we are seeing inflation. lisa: are there any legislative consequences of the approval rating falling to a record low? jack: it is a bit surprising that there haven't been concrete consequences just yet. when we are talking to lawmakers , you get the sense that maybe those negative poll numbers have an effect on this upcoming bill. it probably has an effect on other legislation they need to get done after this bill. it would be the time for someone to pump the brakes on the biden administration's legislative agenda if they wanted to. the question is if senators manchdin and -- senatorsd
manchdina --d senatorsddd -- senator manchin and sinema want to say no to the bill. kailey: a story that caught my eye over the weekend was "the washington post" reporting that biden and his team have been telling others that biden will be running in 2024. is that something that democrats want? jack: i have not heard from any lawmakers doubting that it is a good idea for him to run. they have publicly said that he plans to run in 2024, but sometimes leaving a little bit of wiggle room in his statements. it is very important for the president not to back himself into a corner and become a lame-duck this early, especially with so much of the legislative outlook going on.
if he has democratic lawmakers believing that the party future evolves around president biden for the near term, then he has much more leverage than if people really start to doubt his reelection. so i think the reelection question for 2024 realistically has to happen a bit closer to 2024 because the president has to be motivated to at least let people know he is still around and he is not a lame-duck as of 2021. lisa: what is the consequence if president biden doesn't pull the trigger on some fed chair nominee tomorrow? jack: the expectations have built and built, and it is getting to the point where it is hard to look at this news cycle and not notice how long he has waited to make a decision. the fact that they said there's going to be an announcement before thanksgiving and now we know he is supposed to give comments tomorrow, it would look pretty bad and it would be concerning.
in terms of the vote count for a -- concerning in terms of the vote count for a confirmation. tom: are you a nantucket? jack: no, i am not invited to nantucket. [laughter] tom: thank you so much. we will have special coverage on whatever the announcement may be. ebert humor bari -- you brahim are bari at citigroup critics stronger dollar. lisa: it is all over the map. mohamed el-erian came out last week and said he thinks lael brainard would be the best choice. frankly, it is all over the place when it comes to this selection. at the end of the day, is it really any difference? kailey: it is not just about who biden picks. that person still needs the votes in order for that to actually become the next fed chair. it is not just about the nomination. given some of the push backs on progressives like elizabeth warren on chairman powell, if we
don't get a chairman powell pick , do you end up with a kind of battle in the legislative branch no matter what the executive decides? tom: a data check here. dxy 96 is the level. bloomberg dollar index elevated as well. yen 114.09. you should have seen it. it was really good. they got fired up. they were terrible. lisa: i heard that managers left and came. lots of news that i can't really help you on. tom: a really invigorating talk here. [laughter] the tots slept walked through the first half and came out against leads. lisa: i bet it was. leading our football coverage, tom keene. thank you. [laughter] is this helping anyone?
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♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." it is a three day, may be a four-day week. who is counting? right now, really an interesting monday. it is a varied story. much more exciting than i expected. futures up 12. green across the screen on the equity markets. yields are higher 0.53% on the two-year yield. oil not given me much this morning, nicely under $80 a barrel. dollar given me some excitement with a stronger dollar. euro off the bloomberg at $1.1278. we've got a good conversation coming up.
first, kailey leinz on stocks. kailey: equity futures are broadly higher, but you have some names coming back down to earth. valuations getting a little too rich. rivian is relatively newly public, down about 0.32 percent before the bell. lucid group coming in about 2.5% as well. another meme stock that has been really popular with retail traders is aura innovation. it rallied 71% last week, but on the morning, down about 7.2%. we also have some merger conversations this morning. monster beverage, which makes the energy drinks that tom drinks before the show, is thinking about maybe merging with constellation brands, which makes corona, the bear that tom drinks after the show. not too much action on the speculation, but monster down 3% , constellation up 2%. coca-cola owns a large stake in monster. it is up a little higher before
the bell. tom: thank you so much. this is a joy as we frame to 2022 with federated hermes. they have been spectacular on saying you need to be in the equity markets, you've got to participate, and you can do it without fear. driving the force is linda dussel, an early graduate of the school of carnegie mellon. what was it like when it was getting off the ground? what was the pixie dust of that economics department dovetailed up against finance? linda: well, i didn't really belong there because everything was about computers. actually, te -- actually, it was probably one of the foremost
. i am more of a thinker and not a math person, but they passed me through so they are good by me. kailey: you mentioned -- tom: you mentioned technology, talking to your people at federated. what i hear is the great underestimation of technology across our economics, finance, and investment. give me the optimism for 2022 as we underestimate this technological moment. linda: a lot of people are comparing now with the 1970's, and i was there in the 1970's. you did not have productivity anything like what we have now. we have a very strong dollar right now, so to make those comparisons is not fair, and we keep talking about the pandemic and every thing it meant to our lives and to our investing. the technology advancements seriously were accelerated. it is just very difficult for
people, particularly in washington, d.c., people trying to calculate measures for us, to figure out what this really means in terms of good deflation, disinflation. very good thing. lisa: what does that mean in terms of what you are buying in the equity market? linda: we at federated hermes are bullish as we make our way into 2022. that excess squarely into the positive procyclical scamp. technology is obviously a growth sector and technology, particularly the large cap technology stocks, are used for defensive purposes. we have seen the semiconductor stocks do very well in here. that is more of a safe value type of look. but for us, materials and industrials look really very poised in terms of valuation. we think that international developed looks good.
look at what is going on with covid in europe. lisa: why aren't markets responding more to the wave we are seeing in europe, the idea that we are seeing shutdowns reinstated? linda: the united states is a big country. the states are all experiencing different things. we know the south has seen their spike and they have seen it come back down again. here in the north we are seeing spikes, but it has a lot to do with the fact that they have not counted the breakthrough cases, now they are counting them so it looks worse than what it is. i saw the tape that shows people over in europe protesting. they are protesting without masks on. so people have at enough of it. we will see how we do here, but the boosters are now -- now finally widely available, and we are seeing that deaths are not that bad. we are waiting to say it is
endemic, and that has been used quite a lot lately, so it is getting into our mindset. kailey: obviously the equity market has looked through a lot. maybe it is able to do so because bond yields have remained low. jim paulsen says he still things we could reach 2% by the end of next year. what is the number that it becomes problematic for equities ? linda: 4% is the number you have to worry for. in the next several years, the stock market was doing just fine. it is not until inflation and the acid in your gets over 4%, that price-to-earnings models get hit hard. no matter what everyone is worried about, as we had our way into the holiday season and the new year, $2 trillion of cash on the sidelines in consumer wallets. you watch for christmas. the fed will stay easy for
longer than feared. too early to be worried. let's enjoy our eggnog. kailey: what if the market anticipates hikes twice next year? linda: as long as we are talking about it and talking about it, inflation being talked about so very much, transitory, if i ever thought i would say that word so many times, all you have to do now is be surprised to the other way. so i think people should enjoy the holidays and prepare for a strong 2022, and inflation numbers that, fingers crossed, we are getting back down and supply chains opening back up. tom: all of that is predicated off a strong dollar. dollar dynamics -- link dollar dynamics and the need for a weak
dollar with the equity market turnaround. how tight is that linkage? linda: i think it is reasonably tight insofar as you have so many huge multinational companies in the united states they get a lot of their business outside the u.s., which means if the dollar is too strong, goods and services look too expensive, and they don't want that to happen. we don't want to strong a dollar , we want a weak dollar. we don't want to strong of a currency. we have been surprised at how strong the u.s. dollar has been. i think a lot of the observers have been. my concern is that we continue printing when the rest of the world takes it off the boil. now what we are seeing in washington, d.c., maybe we are too worried about that. lisa: i was reading a number of
outlooks for next year. morgan stanley outlined some of these disagreements among the team. what is the biggest disagreement on what might happen next year that is leading to consternation in your offices. linda: i don't know if i would say there's a huge disagreement. i would say as we talked to each other, but i think we are mainly worried about is a fed policy mistake. i guess if there's any disagreement, it is some of us who think we can read that he leaves as to what inflation will do next year, but really we need to strap ourselves in and find out because nobody really knows, so i guess those who think the fed knows what they are talking about, those that say no they don't, that might be the best disagreement. but in terms of what to worry about, it is a fed policy mistake, and i think we are on
the same stage there. tom: linda was just a wonderful perspective, and it really can't say enough about the voices we've heard from federated here. they keep you in the market. it is not about this number, that number. it is like, here's the framework to have the courage to try to get out of triple leveraged all-cash. lisa: here's the dilemma. that leveraged all-cash is getting less effective in the real world when you look at the inflation rate. so what is the hedge? this has been the dilemma for so many people. the tina trade continues, especially with negative real yields, that bonds basically aren't paying anything. if you go into stocks, it is the best inflation hedge. i do wonder when there is some disconnect between the stock market and the bond market, and it does make me wonder if there is a disconnect. tom: this clearly a disconnect
between bonds and equities, but i see it in real estate as well. there is no alternative in real estate as well. kailey: i think it is a good point that this disconnect isn't anything new. it has really been that the fed is active in this market. the fed is there to provide a backstop. the question is, if that tap is turning off and the pace of normalization is accelerating. ? tom: gold, $1846 an ounce. coming up, matthew lewis eddie -- coming up, matthew luzetti. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm laura wright. a christmas parade in milwaukee
turned into a scene of horror. an suv broke through barricades and into a crowd, killing five people and injuring 40 others. police have a person of interest in custody. one police officer fired his weapon trying to stop the vehicle. markets are waiting for the president pasta decision over the next federal reserve chair. the white house has said the announcement on the fed will come before thanksgiving. in germany, a warning on the coronavirus from chancellor angela merkel. the latest surge in infections is worse than anything the country has experienced so far. merkel said hospitals will soon be overwhelmed unless the fourth weight of the virus is broken. bloomberg has learned that energy drink maker monster beverage is exploring a
combination with constellation brands, the brewer of corona. constellation is valued at $44 billion. the exact structure of a potential deal is not known. swedish telecom company ericsson is trying to build market share in cloud. it has agreed to buy the american company bondage for five-point -- company vonage for $5.3 billion. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪
particularly on the west coast, that we ease that supply chain. the president has been very focused on that, and now i'm going up to los angeles in a couple of weeks to talk to some trucking companies about how we continue to stay on top of that. tom: martin walsh, the u.s. secretary of labor, talking about may be a glimmer of better news on the market. it is a market in november that has been extraordinary. i made a note a couple of hours ago of the huge tech outperformance not only this month, but also through all of the year. tech was dead 12 months ago. david remembers that, or bloomberg stocks editor. did you know that? it is dead. dave: the real question now is what do companies decide to own for themselves, stock buybacks. i saw this interesting comparison the other day, a report from credit suisse's global strategist, and what he looked at was earnings yields
based on projected profit for the s&p 500 relative to high-yield debt. so the idea is if the earnings yield is higher, the stock is cheaper, so companies have choices to make in terms of what they do with their capital, so he figures, to the extent that some thing like half the companies in the s&p 500 have higher earnings yields, they have incentive to buy back shares. in fact, if you run our numbers, it is more like 58%. certainly, companies have been doing their share of stock buybacks over time. we see $587 billion they spent on equipment, that sort of thing. tom: one final question. they don't have to be apple or microsoft. buybacks can be less visible, less dominant come of them what we see from the tech giants.
dave: that is true. it comes down to how much cash they have available. smaller companies can certainly go that route as well. tom: thanks so much. we will do more this week, always with a view to the charts and the stories they tell. the violence over the weekend in riots was asked ordinary. maria tadeo gives perspective from berlin. his germany close to being austria, or are there distinctions on the protests of this pandemic? maria: the thing this fascinating about german politics is they pay attention to what happens in austria. it does feed into the political debate in germany. in berlin, there's no i very active debate in terms of should we do what they are doing in austria, meaning a national lockdown and then a vaccination
mandate. what i would say if there is some nuance in germany. the debate is moving towards should we be more forceful in terms of making the vaccine mandatory. the one sentence that caught my eye today is the health minister who said this winter in germany is very clear. it is either you are vaccinated and recovered or death. lisa: what are the german officials looking at to say we need much stricter requirements to nip this in the bud? maria: this is the difficulty. this is a country divided in states, and they have a lot of say in terms of their own political agenda and what they do in their own regions. until now, the federal government and the regions work together for that threshold, and it also depends on whether you're looking at the infection rate or hospital admissions. it is the federal government that has to step in.
we know there is an outgoing government led by angela merkel. there's a new one coming in expected to take place in the next two weeks, solo shot will have to make this -- so olaf scholz will have to make this decision in the next two weeks. i think at this point you are looking at the social pushback from a society that clearly does not believe in the vaccine, the science behind it, and that believes governments should not mandate a vaccine. this is perhaps what germany got wrong. they believed they could appeal to that section of the population without making this an obligation. that is the social pushback. you also have the economic ramification of this, which are many. we know what they look like for the service sector. going back to the austrian case, the government had to make a
decision. do we want to deal with a political crisis or a health crisis? it is health that is becoming the priority. tom: thank you so much, and a story that is evolving, to say the least. thank you for setting us on target. we will keep stores closed on thanksgiving. remember the friday hysteria where we piland to walmart? i think it is done, isn't it? lisa: i'm not going to weigh in on the end of those crowds. i will say now the crowd is taking that mouse and clicking again and again and again. i think that is what accounts for that. but they brought black friday into absolutely everything. tom: existing home sales today, onto tomorrow, and then the onslaught on wednesday, i would suggest we get the data dump for
2021. it is just a stunning amount of data on wednesday. kailey: a lot dropping. it is interesting because this is a holiday shortened week, so what does that data windup meaning for the bond market that could not just have that as a catalyst, but a number of things throughout the week? lisa is sleeping on her game. lisa: there's a five-year auction this week, not a moment of low liquidity. i've got to say, and you brought this to my attention earlier, this headline that came across with bulb energy being placed into special administration. basically, javier blas is going to be joining us shortly, saying this is the biggest casualty of the energy crunch in the united kingdom, and this basically puts the massive energy supplier into government control at a time when energy prices are spiking ahead of the winter. tom: they do a nice layout of this. for our american viewers, jon
ferro is hardwired on this. all of a sudden, your bills can go up. i want to look on a monday of this week, waiting on the fed pick, that once again, equities have a bid. lisa: given the fact you have the second, third wave in europe that does seem to be getting worse, perhaps the fed moving quicker than people previously priced in. all of this doesn't matter, and that is notable to me. tom: and a market drawdown. you do the drawdown, it is under 1% from record highs. tom: 60 -- lisa: 66 record highs
>> we think financial markets will discover what normal looks like from a growth and inflation standpoint. >> inflation is really not disrupting that. >> you're looking at a strong trajectory for growth over than x couple of years. >> the uncertainty band is wide. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: it is countdown to a fed chair decision, countdown to a data dump on wednesday. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance"