tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 4, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EST
>> i would not be surprised if you do see a 7% handle when it comes to the overall rate of cpi inflation. >> inflation is probably the biggest concern for markets in 2022. >> i think we have had the peak of inflation pressures on margins. >> fiscal stimulus is being ebbed to some extent in overkill. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: starting a new year with bond yields breaking out. from new york city, for our
audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 14 on the s&p, advancing 0.25%. tom: we make clear as we go on this morning that this is a tuesday morning of action, to see the 30 year bond with a leg up gets my attention. jonathan: where 30's are right now is where people expect tens to be at the end of this year. lisa: right now we are looking at a bond selloff that is accelerating at the same time that people are getting conviction, and increasing conviction that we will see new record highs in tandem the way we did last year. at what point is there attention being set appear? at what point does the bond selloff start to impact stockmarkets that really have risen off of this low rate environment? jonathan: let's talk about that now.
still up by 0.3%. nasdaq 100 futures up 26, advancing 0.16%, and yields higher by three or four basis point on tens, and on euro-dollar, 1.1276. euro-dollar -0.2%. many of you understanding the relationship between this bond market and this equity market, holding the keys to some degree for performance in 2022. on that story, leaf average, head of multi-asset strategy -- leaf average -- lee ferridge, head of multi-asset strategy at state street. lee: i think as long as we don't go too far, the equity market can hold in there. there's enough liquidity to go around, but i think the crucial
element for me is probably 1.75%, 1.80% on the 10 year. if we start to push above that, that is going to impact equity markets. we've got a little way to go, but the pace over the last 24 the 36 hours -- 24 to 30 sig sauer's, if that continues, that is going to be a problem. jonathan: i wonder where you are focused, the nominal yield or the really old. which one matters more? lee: the nominal yield right now. with this liquidity out there, it is fine at these sort of levels, but a lot of people will look and say i am going to take that because i am worried about equity valuations. we have come a long way. we had another huge year last year. let's take a little bit off the table, lock in those low yields, and that is going to take that momentum out of the equity market. tom: very important, if i have a
retirement plan and say i underperformed in 2021 two the s&p 500, do i want to study nominal yields, topline yields, or do i want to study inflation-adjusted yields to try to give me confidence to get back into the game? lee: the problem is inflation. we've got these very elevated inflation numbers now come up with expectation is when you look at longer-term inflation expectations, we do expect to come back towards 2%, maybe a little bit above average inflation targeting, but coming back to that level. you have to look in the context of equity valuations. i think there are people nervous out there. the fear of missing out was a huge driver of trades in 2021, and i think people are closing their eyes and buying equities,
but they are worried. the qe taper has accelerated. the liquidity eventually will become less bountiful. i think that is something people are looking at, so you can argue real yields are still negative, but if i can login 1.75%, 1.80% on 10 years given these valuations, is that such a bad trade? you start getting close to 2%, people are going to look at that and say just for prudence, i'm going to increase my allocation to the bond market. tom: dennis gartman making a splash in the last 48 hours, calling for correction. not a bear market, but nevertheless a pullback as well. do you anticipate in the next 24 months more of a corrective or bear market volatility, or does the bid come in whenever we go down 4%, 5%?
lee: it is a really good question. the bid has come down because of the liquidity. we had a huge expansion of the balance sheet, huge expansion of the central bank balance sheets globally. over the last two years, and also before that. the fed has accelerated the taper. we are going to win that in march. so it is going to get more challenging from that point onwards. it is going to start getting challenging, particularly to the second half of the year. it makes it much more difficult in the equity markets. lisa: there is a story in "the wall street journal" this morning that talked about how the fed is trying to chart a path to shrink its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. how much are market valuations where they are predicated on an idea that the fed will never be able to execute some policy of
shrinking their balance sheet? lee: i think that is a big when we have quantitative tightening back in 2018, look what happened. they were hiking rates, reducing the balance sheet. then we saw the big equity selloff in q4 2018. suddenly the fed did a complete about-face. between christmas and new year, we saw that massive shift, and suddenly we weren't hiking anymore and started cutting rates. so there is an assumption, they won't make that mistake again. they could let it reduce by buying stuff rolling off, but for me, you can make the case that if you want to take froth out of the economy, it is actually a better way to do it
because if you think about the issues, if you what to come some -- if you want to cut consumption at the top end, it will have a wealth effect through quantitative tightening rather through interest rate increases. whether you can do that in a slow enough way to not cause a massive market reaction, that is the key question. but there is an argument, and people are making it, that qt rather than aggressive rate hikes would be the most equitable way to try and take some froth out of the economy and perhaps reduce some of those inflationary pressures. lisa: this is such a fascinating point that raises another question, which is how much of a selloff will the fed allow if there is a less controlled selloff in response to quantitative tightening that could be a potentially greater risk with that avenue. at what point do they step in?
what is the calculus at this point? lee: no one really knows, but rule of thumb is probably if we look between 10% and 20% down over a short period, if we did that as we did in q4 2018 over a period of a couple of weeks, that is going to really worry the fed. the one thing that will really worry about, so it is a drift down over a six month period. would that stop it? maybe not. again, it is about the pace, about the level we are at at the time, but it is really hard. once the market turns, investment turns quickly, then you get an outsized market reaction when you look at the valuations we have now. jonathan: it is a quick start to 2022 in this bond market. thank you, leif average -- thank you, lee ferridge of state
street. a note for next week, the powell renomination hearing is planned for next week. that headline from politico moments ago. lisa: do you that as is anything other than a formality? at this point, doesn't it seem like jerome powell basically has a clean skellie -- a clean slate and a carte blanche to lead the fed again? jonathan: you would have to imagine, even if some democrats say no thank you, that they get that done. that should be smooth sailing. what i am waiting for are the other picks. there's three seats that need to be filled. we were told maybe before the holidays. now we are waiting hopefully at some point later this week. tom: we saw annmarie hordern this morning speaking of professor jefferson. this is a fascinating pick by the president and his team. philip jefferson's definitive on
poverty. he is so good on poverty, he wrote the very short introduction on poverty for the oxford press. is it a fact -- it is a fascinating selection. i guess maybe it will be a formal selection shortly. jonathan: on this market, just off of all-time highs. i caught up with michael feroli yesterday. he said hawkish operations does not mean tight financial conditions. that is key. tom: i need an entry point. jonathan: is this it, record highs? maybe this is the one after three years of double-digit gains. maybe you should take a look. yields up four basis points on tends to 1.66%. . this is bloomberg. ♪
ritika:ritika: with the first word news, i ritika gupta. shares were up on apple in u.s. trades. on monday, apple shares reached the $3 trillion mark intraday and closed at a record level. analysts touted the stock as a safe haven i been market volatility, and the defending from -- and benefiting from virtual reality. an announcement could come as early as this week. biden is giving progressive senators like elizabeth warren a win. hong kong will require people to have at least one covid-19 vaccine shot to enter restaurants and public leisure facilities starting in late february. the government is pushing back its plans until -- elizabeth
holmes found guilty for her role in the collapse of the start of sarah knows. -- start of theranos. she is expected to appeal her conviction. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> if they are shutting down cities, you're going to have this spike and pullback, the kind we felt in the united states. suddenly you get back in china, and that means we are going to continue to have supply chain challenges across the world in 2022. it also means inflation has the ability to persist longer than you otherwise would have expected. jonathan: ian bremmer, president of eurasia group. from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up 15 on the s&p 500. futures positive 0.3%. the gnostic 100 futures up 0.2%. in the bond market, another lift for treasury yields, up 12 basis points, higher by three basis points to 1.65% on tends in the united states. in news conference taking place. a virtual news conference at 5:00 p.m. u.k. time for the british prime minister on the pandemic to take place a little bit later. tom: you think we will see a few
of those in the coming days from the white house as well. right now, as we saw ian bremmer yesterday on china, dr. bremmer attracts qualified people to the eurasia group to generate the top 10 risks for any given year. this year's nuanced, brilliant list includes iran. we get an update from henry rome with eurasia group, of cambridge, of his journalism at open jerusalem post -- at "the jerusalem post," gives us the update on the minute. this concern about drones flying in to baghdad in danger. give us the immediate right now of drones and the danger of drones from tehran. henry: great to be here again. i think what we have seen with
the anniversary of the assassination of qasem soleimani, the iran backed militias in iraq flying these drones at bases that house u.s. forces. i think the real risk here is the ever-present one that you get u.s. forces killed or injured and some of these attacks, and then pressure on the biden administration to retaliate to show that there is a cost for this type of activity. there's a lot of ambiguity with drones like these about whether they are ordered from iran or whether these are local militias, but the concern overall israel. tom: -- overall is real. tom: give us the update, what is the number one thing americans get wrong about tehran and all
of iran. henry: i think the number one thing is that despite that image in our collective memory, the iranian leadership today is quite rational in the sense of making calculations when pursuing its policies. they might not have the same way looking at things that we do in different ways of assessing cost and benefits, but when you have questions like why or under what circumstances would they ramp up their nuclear program, what circumstances would they seek a nuclear weapon , what is their policy around the region, i think it is easy to get caught up in a lot of the rhetoric, which is fiery and explosive, but when you look at the action over the past several decades, you see a pretty consistent through line of a fairly simple weighing of cost and benefits.
lisa: there's an issue of this being a regional problem, and then there is the more geopolitical risk that eurasia group seems to identify and their latest report of risks. when you talk about a potentially conflagration -- a potential conflagration of these tensions, what is the readthrough to politics for 2022? henry: i think we were a bit lulled into a false sense of security last year. i think the key to stability in the region are these negotiations, and the negotiations aren't going well. i think the head of real pivot point will be lovely over the next month or two when it most likely becomes clear that a deal is out of reach.
they are all kind of pivoting to their respective plan b's, and those are all different. as you see iran start to realize its goals of increasing leveraging against the u.s., the israelis can -- the israelis concerned about what is an unconstrained nuclear program, and i think all of those pressures collide this year, and that is why it made it onto our list. lisa: how much does this lead to higher oil prices? i know you are not an oil strategist, but usually that is the direct market readthrough from this type of tension. henry: i think that is right. over time, i think this is a factor that will push oil prices higher. of course, there's a number of factors that go into that, but i think on the bullish side, this is certainly one of them, especially if you get into a scenario that we talk about that starts to look like a conflict.
we are going to have conversations like this again and again on whether the israelis will tack or won't they attack, will there be -- will they attack or won't they attack. we are back to a position where it appears diplomacy is not going to succeed at this present time, and they more aggressive options are being complicated. any time you talk about military action in the gulf region, i think that immediately has a passed through to concerns about the stability of supply. jonathan: henry, thank you very much, and thank you to eurasia group and ian bremmer working through those top risks for 2022. top-of-the-line come of the headline, "we have dealt with the pandemic. it is not yet done with us." critically, china's zero policy covid strategy will fail, the view of ian bremmer over at
eurasia. tom: that was one of the high points of this. i was not here yesterday. i am so sorry for that. but i really can't say enough about the thought-provoking nature of the top 10 risks. to china, but i think dr. bremmer touches upon is the cultural response nation to nation. in my time at yale, it was terrific studying the success of italy, with an 85% vaccination rate. it is extrude mary. jonathan: can you not scare people like that. talking about how you were doing the last couple of weeks. tom: can i just say that lisa, and the light of a -- is just
jonathan: live from new york city on tv and radio, good morning. tom keene with lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. we are up 4/10 of 1%. yield tides breaking out what's again. it happened around this time yesterday, yield breaking out, moving 12 basis points yesterday. 167.52 on tens. bond yields breaking out, higher. just short of 170 after closing out 2021 around 150. tom: what we are trying to do here as we enter 2022 is look at
the themes of december and november, what we got right and what we got wrong and talk to smart people away from the day-to-day grind of. it all scott brown is one of those people. his economic lineage is best in class. he had the privilege of studying at san diego under granger and angle. he knows the study of uncertainty like no one we speak to. scott, thank you so much for joining us today. garsch, we will not go into all of it. this is about, to volatility. where are we right now -- this is about calm to volatility. where are we right now? scott: we start with a lot of
optimism that the economy will do okay. there are a number of potential issues and risks, geopolitical. you have a situation in ukraine that could boil over and domestic politics could be a bit of an issue. natural disasters, the fires in colorado. i expect we will see the ground shifting a lot over the course of the year. over the long-term, we are optimistic but from time to time, things will be volatile. investors should beware of that along with opportunities on the way. tom: is the heart of the matter which is an aggressive positivists response, what should our viewers and listeners do? should they have a plan to do something or do they need a plan to avoid the risks that are out there? lisa: having -- scott: having a
plan is helpful, having something geared toward what your goals are. if you're getting closer to retirement or saving for your child's education or something like that. a lot of this has to do with the tried-and-true maxims, having a diversified portfolio. it is difficult to see how things will turn out so you want to have some sectors that are going to be more stable than others. we have a lot of questions about the economy over the course of the year and we are singing now with the labor market -- and we are seeing it now with the labor market. we don't know where labor force participation will end up. we thought it would be stronger in 2021, but that has not been the case. labor force participation of the year -- childcare issues are still pretty high.
with the ongoing pandemic, we have people going into nursing homes. those dependent care issues will still be with us and likely restraining that participation. that means more difficulty for firms and hiring new workers, especially at entry-level positions. all of these things that come into play. lisa: do you buy the argument that people have too much saving -- they had too much in their savings to get a job? that is one of, that people eat into their savings account and then what's the run out we will see labor force participation go up. scott: i don't buy that at all. we had a lot of people collecting unemployment who normally would not have gotten unemployment benefits last year. self-employed, people working part-time, things like that. most people want a good paying job. i think it is more of a supply
issue. with savings may give workers more time to look for a better job. that is likely to be the case which means you are still going to see pressures from most firms in trying to find good workers for reasonable pay. we are seeing pretty substantial increases in positions that are startup. that is where a lot of the difficulties are in hiring. you are still going to see a high-level as people look to improve their earnings. most firms will not be giving you cost-of-living increases to match inflation. for workers to really step up, they either have to move to another job or have another offer in hand to compete with their existing firm in order to see any substantial wage increase. lisa: this is highly confusing. we are about to get the report
in 90 minutes which may come to an all-time high. this does not seem to make any sense at all, yet we are not seeing wage increases commensurate with inflation. what gives? can you square this circle for us to give us a better understanding of what exactly is holding back wage increases from what you would expect if people want to fill these jobs? scott: you had a shift over the last three or four decades where union membership in the u.s. is a lot lower than it was in the 70's -- than it was in the 1970's. you have less rate marketing from unions. we have had larger concentration of big firms. the bargaining power has for that shifted a lot more towards firms. a typical corporation -- you
might get your cost-of-living increase. it might keep inflation normally , but with the increase we saw last year, many firms are not opting for that salary increase. if you want to move up, you have to have another offer at some other firm. that is just the way corporate america works. it is going to very. for high skilled positions, technology, those salaries will end up being a lot higher. if a worker has one foot out the door, firms are quickly going to match that salary increase. with new hires, there is some resistance to higher wages there. they are still relying a lot on bonuses -- on the signing bonuses and other perks to get people on board. tom: you are in st. petersburg,
florida. david westin yesterday spoke with the newly minted mayor of new york city, mayor adams. you having -- you have a unique perspective from raymond james. tell us about the economies and cultures for the rest of america, from the urban part that seems to be struggling with omicron. how far is st. petersburg from new york city? scott: in terms of the virus, we are seeing huge increases and a lot of spreading of the disease during the holiday season. i went to get my car fixed during the holiday and i was the only one wearing a mask in the waiting room. i went to a hockey game, very few people wearing masks. this is going to spread. their is some good and some bad. it is -- there is some good and some bad. it is more transmissible and as
it gets transmitted, people are building up immunity to defer the virus. it could mutate into a worse condition or it could mutate into something more benign. this idea that we're going to reach herd immunity -- there is that element that still could come to pass. in the near term, the cases are rising again. it is the denominator that matters, the fact that there are so many cases. even though it is milder, so many more people are getting the virus which means hospitals will be overwhelmed. jonathan: scott brown, thank you. from raymond james on the situation of the pandemic of the moment. we don't need a crystal ball to look ahead. look at israel, they are authorizing a fourth dose for people 60 and over. early data shows a fourth dose
increases antibodies fivefold. are we going to have to do this all over again or is this the end game as we experienced with this variant? tom: as dr. brown mentioned, he had trouble getting his car serviced. i had trouble with the bentley so i took the car in. candy the driver was heated that it has changed how things are getting done in new york city. john burnham murdoch in the financial times puts out a beautiful set of bar charts which show the british superiority over vaccinations. their hospitalizations, their icu admittance is seem to be so much less than america and australia. jonathan: we will hear from a boris johnson holding a virtual news conference at 5:00 p.m. local time. we will hear from him later.
, is not being driven around by a guy called kenny -- tom is not being driven around by a guy named kenny, just to clear things up. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: new year, same story. lisa: same story. i wonder if getting covid counts as an occupation. can we chalk that up to community building? jonathan: people are exhausted, big time. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. the s&p is up one third of 1%. coming up, credit suisse is looking for 5200 on the s&p 500 this year. that is 20 minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪
ritika: at&t and verizon have agreed to a two week delay. the carriers agreed to launch many services. that was in defiance of officials who say that 5g signals might interfere with aircraft electronics, posing a safety risk. top supplier russia -- slows. 10% extending monday rally. russian supplies say -- after dropping yesterday to their lowest since february. chris redfield is in talks with investors to raise more capital according to a person with knowledge of the matter. it came after -- the capital management declined to comment. united arab emirates is said to be risk of getting on at risk -- a list of countries not doing
enough to combat money laundering and terrorism financing. the financial action task force is leading toward having the company added to its a great list. that would be a big step given their position as the financial hub of the middle east. two co-ceos are placing david mccormick as he stepped down for a senate run. they will become the joint heads of the world's biggest hedge fund. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
of 13% for the second quarter in a row. i think companies in this environment were growth remains strong, which will only continue to this year, companies could offset it, mitigated. tom: benjamin later, we welcome you to "bloomberg surveillance." we are preparing for an important market open at the 9:00 hour. he was talking about the optimism of growth. he has been leading with optimism for three years and that is the type of behavior we have seen from corporate america. nowhere more than in the american auto business. it has been extraordinary what we have seen in terms of action, particularly in electronic vehicles in response to two tesla. joining us from dearborn and that can only mean the ford mortar company -- ford motor
company is kumar galhotra. thank you for your leadership on electric vehicles. i am thunderstruck by the response to the manley f-150 pickup truck. it appears at 250,000 units, people want to buy an electric f-150. tell us how important price is to that decision. it is $39,000 plus. has that been the trick to get the preorder you have got? kumar: good morning and thank you for having me. prices one factor. i think it is the compelling nature of the product that is really important here. when we were doing research with our customers, they loves the acceleration of it, they loved the torque, they left the payload of 2000 pounds. it is a great driving truck, it
is incredibly fast. truck owners love torque and tort is what this electric vehicle brings. all of that capability, it is built for tough. it is one of the vehicles that has been a leading high selling vehicle for us for more than 45 years in a row, leading its segment. combine all that into a compelling product proposition with a starting price of over $40,000, is what has made this such a compelling proposition. tom: i am so glad you brought up the physics of this. the first time i felt the modern torque of electric vehicles was an electric cab in london. the pull down the road was extraordinary. explain the new torque, the physics of a new torque versus our stereotype view of a tesla.
kumar: the torque, especially for truck buyers, is incredibly important. with a combustion engine, we are used to the traditional torque. as you start pushing on the pedal, it picks up and then kicks at one point and stabilizes. in electric vehicles, there are two key things. the torque is instantaneous. the buildup in the gas vehicles is not there. it is almost instantaneous. you push on the pedal and it is instantly there. the second is the amount of torque available which is incredible. for this vehicle, over 770 pound feet which is an incredible number. that is important for our customers not only for driving dynamics, --
lisa: is the issue selling it to consumers or is it producing enough to sell to consumers? that has been the real hang up when it comes to auto sales the past 24 months. kumar: yeah. between the covid crisis, the chip crisis, the entire industry has struggled to produce at the levels we were producing. you take those two twin prices and as we are transfer my the company to go from combustion engine to battery vehicles, changing the demand has been a trick. we thought we were not setting up our factories appropriately for the demand, but as we reveal that the vehicle, we had to expand the capacity.
the reservations continue to come in at record pace. that is why we are announcing that we're going to increase capacity in this plant to 150,000. that includes the supply chain, the battery, the controllers. lisa: given the fact that you have increased production and seen increased demand and the potential of additional stimulus , do you think electric vehicles could reach 10% of the american market by the end of this year? kumar: that is difficult to say. it will be both not only demand -- based on the demand we are seeing for our vehicles and the rest of the industry is seeing, it feels like the demand is certainly there. the question will be how quickly can all of us execute to build
the capacity to meet that demand. that is what we are busy doing. in the next 24 months, we expect to get to 600,000 electric battery units locally -- units globally. that is before our a sublease in kentucky and tennessee come online because they do not come online until 2025. tom: i have about 14 more questions but we will do that another time. i have just got to tell you, lisa abramowicz looks good on the streets of manhattan in a ford f1 50 pickup truck. that is a natural. kumar larcher -- kumar cal four with us. i looked up in cozad, nebraska, there are five charging stations down i-80 from carnegie nebraska to cozad.
i don't get how this thing explodes with a constraint on charging stations. lisa: which is the reason why the build back better plan tried to build a host of charging stations. i have a friend to has a tesla and he talks about how charging stations are events. you have to wait half an hour so they create espresso bars and nice places you can go and rest at. i wonder how that evolves as the rest stop becomes more like the normal gas station we know today. tom: very quickly, jobs report on friday. we have not talked enough about it. that is an important data set. lisa: and the partisan pushing -- and the participation rate. how much are people going to be looking at participation, the number of people coming back into the labor force. that could be more telling than any absolute numbers. tom: it has been an extraordinary morning. we need to think team
this. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is "bloomberg the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. risk in the new year. >> there is risk and not taking risk. >> the fed is going to start raising rates. >> policy normalization is a less scary. >> high-yield in the back and. >> local gdp growth around 4%. >> the world is not going to end. >> that is an ideal environment for taking risks. >> things are moving in the same direction in terms of native. >>