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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  January 31, 2022 3:00am-4:00am EST

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attempt to quell a growing controversy over its support of the podcast host joe rogan. goldman sachs now starting to price in five hikes for these markets for the federal reserve in 2022 as bostick comes out and says the door is open to 50 basis points. it is not the base case yet for the markets, but the door is open. if you're a member, jay powell did not push back that aggressively on the idea he could get 50 basis points. do not rule that out. bostick is not a voting member, but he was one of the first to call for the taper. the futures pointing to the upside. the catch-up to the session, another wild session in the u.s. on friday, ending in the green. in terms of how the playoff comes in europe, the spanish ibex is up 1%. the french cac 40 with gains of 1%. the ftse 100 up 0.7%.
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we continue to wait for that report from sue gray and of the -- the yield compression that you are seeing in italy as a result of the political risk being taken off the table. francine lacqua will break it down for us. s&p futures currently are flat state side. the spread flattening continues, just below the 120 level. but two-year is below 180 at 178. the bcb at 116. so the spread is closing to about 10 basis points. in terms of the fives and 30's in the u.s. treasuries, we can have a look at some of the currencies, but fives and 30's you are looking at a spread compression we have not seen since march 2020. the bloomberg index is softer by closer to 0.2%. the broader story with the dollar's strength. euro-dollar is at 111.
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the pound is 134. we have the ecb on thursday and the bank of england. before that, the bra, the boe. the second rate hike since the 2014 rate hike. bitcoin above 37,000. oil is another one to watch, currently $90 a barrel. the politics in italy, you have been watching this for about a week. we finally have a result. but you are also looking at the input cushions for the reform agenda in italy. francine: absolutely. it is very clear that the markets like the results, but i would point to the fact that after eight rounds of voting, if you need to actually reelect a president that did not want a second term, that wanted to retire and was flat hunting, there is something wrong with the system. there is something wrong with
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the elections or the way the elections are held. it shows the dysfunctionality. another concern the markets may not be pricing and, does this forced mario draghi to govern in a different style and weaken his changes because he wants to be president in a couple years? markets are happy with the result right now, but there are elections coming in 2023 and italy has always been pretty volatile politically. tom: it is that short-term relief. it is fascinating that mattarella said he didn't want the job and got the job and mario draghi has to intervene. how about the mario draghi brand and how it affects his standing in the politics of italy? francine: we are still trying to understand why he didn't get it. half of the lawmakers really did not want him to leave the prime ministerial job because that would widen the spread between germany and italy which it has not. the other half may have damaged
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his brand because if he does not rule by consensus. he listens to everyone but does what he wants, which is why he has been so good at bringing stability and reform through. the question is whether that changes because his short-term reputation has taken a hit. i would say it is short-term because he has brought stability and brought italy back to the map. tom: we will be back to francine in rome in the next couple minutes. let's get the bloomberg business flash with laura wright. laura: spotify taking steps to stop the spread of covid misinformation as controversy grows over its support of podcast host joe rogan. some artists, including neil young and joni mitchell, have pulled their music over rogan's show, which hosted vaccine based guests. ryanair is taking a cautious view on the pace of the travel rebound, saying it will cut prices to stimulate the market this quarter as more countries consider reducing restrictions.
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europe's biggest discount airline has set plans for an aggressive expansion later in 2022, with 720 new routes and 15 new bases announced for the fiscal year beginning in april. allianz is nearing a deal for the software citrix systems. they will pay about $104 per share in a takeover that could be announced as soon today. at that price, the maker of work from home software is valued around $13 billion. walgreens is said to have begun the sales process for its boot international drugstore. it is thought boots could be sold for as much as 7 billion pounds. bain capital and a cbc capital have teamed up on a bid. a listing is also a probability. that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: let's get into the key market drivers with our markets
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editor and gareth whitcomb, j.p. morgan portfolio manager. let's start with you and the options, the door opened to 50 basis point hike. then you have goldman sachs pricing in five hikes for 2022. where are we in the repricing of a more aggressive fed? reporter: i think we haven't fully passed the 50 basis point idea just yet. this will be the next battleground as far as what markets will be watching for the fed. bostick was pretty punchy in his comments. he is a non-voter, he has been known to be a hawk in some of these indications. markets are taking that with a little bit of a grain of salt, but it is a long road to march. we have a lot of opportunities to hear from other foc members. if we hear it from the more centrist members, markets will
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have to start paying attention and potentially reprice that 50 basis point possibility in the same way they did for the idea of five fed rate hikes this year. francine: let's also bring in gareth. is it possible that the fed front runs the market with a 50 basis point increase and calls for the rest of the year? guest: i certainly think it is possible. i thought the interview was interesting. he was thinking three rate hikes this year would be sufficient. i think it is more likely than not that the fed will want to ease into this tightening. i think it is unlikely they want to start with 50 basis points. the market is going to start testing that and see where the other members of the committee are likely to come out and a sound aggressive. tom: watch for the other members
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and their commentary to see if that solidified's this 50 basis point idea. we also have the rba tomorrow and the bce on friday. which of those brands has the most scope to surprise? guest: i think it is probably the rba. we certainly saw that last year when they were expected to raise rates in november and stood back. this time, i think they will be raising rates. these would be the first back to back rate hikes we have seen some time for the bank of england. certainly the market is expecting them to be raising rates later this year. the rba have been pretty consistent in saying rate hikes this year are not on the agenda. let's see how that pans out. francine: there is so much pointing to what the bank of
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england will do with the most aggressive tightening cycle for a a while. are we forgetting that the ecb could surprise to the upside? reporter: absolutely, francine. from my point of view, absolutely. the ecb will -- central banks are really underestimated in the markets at the moment. we are watching for those rate hikes to get to about a quarter of a percentage point by the end of the year. it shows you how entrenched the expectations will be. it will be a very interesting contrast with what we hear from the ecb on thursday, and especially because they have been very clear and consistent in their messaging that there will be no rate hikes here. but the markets are definitely testing them. as gareth says, markets test central banks, and that is what we are seeing from the ecb this week. tom: gareth, let's bring you in
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on this ecb call and whether or not markets are underestimated, or if the ecb will be compelled to act quicker like with spanish inflation data coming out higher than had been expected. guest: i certainly agree. i think perhaps it is a contrarian call that the ecb needs to raise rates sooner than the market expects. there has been a narrative over the last 5, 6, 7 years, maybe longer, that europe has not generated the level needed for the ecb to add rates. talking about rates going from negative to maybe neutral to zero. that is something where there may be reasons for the ecb to do that. i see some functioning from the markets just to get the rates
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back to normal, something we hear later in the year. tom: gareth whitcomb, we will be getting back to you slowly. kristine aquino, thank you for breaking down the themes for us. coming up, could the u.k. be set to see the first bank rate hike in the 17 years? we will look more at what is happening, and implications for the boe next. we will get some of garrett's calls as futures stateside turn. a solid gains in italy on the back of the presidential results. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back. we are 14 minutes into the european trading day. 0.9% gains across the benchmark stoxx 600. another wild day per u.s. equities. currently the u.s. futures s&p easily a point range bound after being in the green. the nasdaq futures, 0.2%. your sectors in europe, it is technology out of the gate quite strong, up 2.3%. let's get some of the individual corporate stories that dani burger is watching. what is in focus for you? what is of interest? dani: kicking things off with a
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bit of activist investor action. we have had a lot of this over the past month or so, activist investors getting impatient waiting for returns. vodafone the latest target, according to sources familiar. a great scoop from our bloomberg team. they have already begun talks with vodafone to improve the profitability of the shares, up 3%. to the down stair come -- to the downside, we have ryanair. they disappointed a bit last quarter due to omicron. ryanair also trying to stay competitive. they are slashing prices for airlines. i spoke with the cfo who said they are well hedged. investors sending stocks lower. because of the common stability that francine lacqua' presence ands italy has inspired, we see italian stocks rally. that is not just because francine is there, but the
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italian election. we have status quo with the prime minister and president sticking there. those politically sensitive sectors like banks outperforming this morning. tom: that is all they needed, a bit of volatility. at francine and you get calm. clearly that is what is happening. dani burger with some of the stocks to watch. let's get back to central bank action before we get calls from gareth wickham. -- gareth whitcomb. they are expected to hike by 25 basis points on thursday. the central bank has been one of the first movers in a rapid global tightening of monetary policy. if the boe hikes, it would be the first back-to-back increase for u.k. rates since 2004. gareth whitcomb waiting patiently for us. we were smoking with a guest -- we were speaking with a guest from rabobank earlier.
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how are you looking at things? guest: certainly the bank of england have willing to hike. i think they want to get rates up and see where they stand. there are lots of moving parts for the bank of england to digest. we have some potential headwinds from brexit. we have the national insurance rent rise that is coming through later this year. i think there is a lot of uncertainty there from the bank of england. maybe a little less than the market is pricing. it does not seem unreasonable. that is certainly a possibility. i think all of these central banks where you are seeing person come through there is a high degree of uncertainty. much just depends on the data. francine: gareth, now we are talking about a possible tax
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increase in the next few months. how does the bank of england deal with that? is there a worry that businesses will not get enough support? will that make them a lot more cautious about what they can do with interest rate hikes? guest: i think on balance, it does make them a little more cautious. they know it is coming through. the prime minister this week signaled that is going to occur. there is the possibility that they could have changes at the very top of the u.k. government. they need to see that tax hikes delivered. it is another thing put into the economic forecast. i think the direction of travel is a place to start moving higher. tom: where does that leave your call for u.s. equities? there is a view that equities
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have been relatively under loved the last couple years. that this is the year where the ftse 100 shines. do you buy into that? guest: certainly when we think about our portfolios, we think about asset allocation. it features quite heavily the last three or four months. i think we need to be careful about making a big coal on -- a big call on equities because they have underperformed for a number of years. diversification, having a mix of different equities as you go through this volatility, and we do think that volatility needs to remain in markets, certainly until we get more clarity on the direction path of inflation. francine: we haven't even mentioned party gate. if boris johnson resigns, does
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that make a difference to what you want to buy in the u.k.? guest: we are top-down investors. we would certainly be thinking that may alter the possibility of tax increases if the prime minister comes through to the u.k.. i think it is very hard to make that call. i think for now, the u.k. equity market has pretty defensive qualities that are attractive in the multi-asset portfolio where you are looking for diversification, exposure to a number of markets, and also different styles as well. tom: gareth whitcomb, thank you for your time this monday morning on the defensive qualities of u.k. stocks as we weigh up the decision-making by the boe, markets pricing in a 50 basis point hike. spotify finally response to the joe rogan controversy and vows
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to stop the spread of covid misinformation on its platform. that story is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the european market open. we are covering the eu economy
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and the italian economy after that presidential election. one thing we need to mention is a stipend. this is an italian oil company. they said because of logistics issues and the number of issues including the pandemic and the increase in the cost of raw materials, they have a profit warning saying that losses for 2021, so the last 12 months, could equate for more than a quarter of share cap, something the market is not liking. tom: some very real challenges. let's switch focus to a very different story around information, the way information is communicated. spotify outlines steps it will take to halt the spread of misleading info about covid-19 on its audio streaming service. musicians neil young and joni
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mitchell pulled their music from the platform in protest over virus misinformation shared on joe rogan's popular podcast. joining us with details is laura wright. first of all, the changes that spotify said it will be making, what are they, and are they likely to be effective in addressing these concerns? laura: they have added some content advisories. any content that is deemed to be dangerous, deceptive, sensitive, or illegal is going to be prohibited in the future. traditionally, spotify was seen as having a laissez-faire approach to content. that seems to have changed. ceo daniel act acknowledging the criticism -- daniel ek acknowledging the criticism. the rogan experience generates 2 million listeners every month. it is the most listened to podcast. they paid 100 million dollars. to purchase it exclusively it is inflammatory, contentious, it causes controversy.
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the podcast led to an open letter from 200 medical and scientific professionals because it questioned the efficacy of vaccines in young people and also questioned some treatments that are unproven at present. francine: the measures taken by spotify, will it likely stop? the boycotts or is there more controversy ahead? laura: joe rogan recorded an apology. that share prices tanked over the last year because of stiff competition from apple. investors like the idea of this pivot. but artists, a lot of them cannot afford to boycott spotify because they rely on royalties to make a living. artists remain spotify's most valuable asset. any backlash from the artistic
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community is a potential risk to the downside for the streaming music service. tom: bloomberg's laura wright on the spotify controversy. coming up, restrictions on russia and the latest from the situation on the ukrainian border. we will speak to our guest. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back. we are 30 minutes into the european trading day. here are your top stories. goldman sachs boosts rate calls to five. it could raise by 50 basis points in march. omicron hits chinese factories and the consumer, but stocks start the week mostly higher. and spotify outlines steps to halt the spread of misleading covid-19 information in an attempt to quell a growing controversy over its support for
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the podcast host joe rogan. just to clarify, what is spotify going to do, put notices around some of this covid-19 related content, offering viewers an alternative route to get that information as well. not an outright ban. to clarify, it will be notices to keep their audiences involved. those are the stories we have. been following let's check in on the markets. the catch up we are seeing in europe on the back of a very strong day. a remarkable day again on friday in the u.s. we had this late day rebound. the stoxx 600 gaining 0.9%. a big weekend for the central banks. the rba, this has been flagged to us by a number of guests, the most interesting one coming out. the dax gaming. the cac 40 is up. italy, where francine lacqua is, seeing gains of 1.4% on the back
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of the political stability announcing mario draghi will remain prime minister, the president will remain the president. another term from mattarella. we will get the details on that. technology out of the gate at 240. guild compression is what we are seeing, whether it is the fives and 30's, the twos and the tens, but also the bunds as well. you also have two sectors in the red, basic resources and treasure and leisure -- travel and leisure. oil above $90 a barrel. let's get back to geopolitics. this is a factor playing into the higher oil prices. u.s. senators are close to agreeing on a russian sanctions bill that could include penalties even if russia does not send troops into ukraine. bob menendez says restrictions could be applied based on what the kremlin has already done. lawmakers will be briefed this week by biden administration
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officials. for more, we go to our reporter in brussels, maria tadeo. how will these sanctions differ from previous ones? how does this up the ante? maria: we are looking at a package that goes well beyond anything we saw back in 2014 when russia annexed crimea and was kicked out of the g8 and there were sanctions put in place. the russian economy did manage to grow around some of those sanctions. this time, you could see every major sector. being hit by sanctions you could also see russian banks being stopped from clearing in dollars. oligarchs could be hit, too. remember, the u.s. administer asian has not ruled out that vladimir putin himself could be targeted by sanctions. the key point is that this could happen even if there is an invasion, even if there is not and military conflict happening based on the actions
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that have already happened when it comes to some of the cyber hacking, to some of the destabilization we are seeing in the country already play out. you don't need to see a full on invasion for sanctions to kick in. all of this will have to be approved. this is in the final touches stage, but that is the direction it is heading. tom: maria tadeo in brussels on the latest when it comes to what has been discussed in the u.s. on these additional sanctions. and of course, you are on the ground in italy looking at political risk there. now we are talking geopolitics as well. francine: we certainly are. let's bring in gina fordham, head of global political strategies. there were a few things that were quite strange over the weekend, including the ukrainian president saying that the u.s. is scaremongering. russia adding blood on the
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border. is it not good for the u.s. to put sanctions to de-escalate? guest: if you speak to the former u.s. ambassador to russia and other long-standing russian security experts, they always point out that the way to really get putin to de-escalate, to reverse this buildup, is by a show of strength. this is exactly with the u.s. and eu are trying to communicate. you asked about what would be the most elegant solution. i think what would be the most interesting and plausible outcome would be for russia and ukraine to coordinate on a solution. let's remember that neither side has fully implemented the conditions of the agreement that transpired after the 2014
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russian invasion. zelensky has been sending messages that they ukrainians are not concerned, but they have to be concerned as further russian troops are added on the russian side of the border and the belarusian side of the border. tom: a solution could come from direct talks between kiev and moscow. where do you put the risk assessments of significant military action by russia, given everything we have seen over the last few days? guest: it depends on which hat i am using to think about it. i am a 25 year russia watcher, and i also have experience in the security sphere. with that in mind, we are looking at the biggest troop old up -- biggest troop buildup and the biggest risk of military confrontation in europe for a very long time. it is not insignificant and i
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have been advising my clients and other leaders i talked to about it for over a year. it has been clear to me for some time that putin would take advantage of the post-pandemic or vacuum, the erosion with the international community that has taken place, and he has done that. he is taking a risk to see if the u.s. and its focus on internal affairs ahead of midterms would be willing to respond. and if the u.s. and eu would be able to coordinate. he is very much testing that. when i talk to investors, they see it differently. sorry. francine: my question is, because it is drip feed views of russia saying we will not attack, but pointing to the fact that they will attack.
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they have lost the element of surprise. do they want to invade or not? guest: remember putin's behavior before. he has invaded ukraine in the past and overseen a troop buildup and withdrawn. he could easily, i think, withdraw and come away with some victory. he has gotten his message out that russia's security considerations need to be factored in and the chinese have backed that up. they could very well de-escalate. but on the military side, there is a lot of military and personnel. we should be very concerned. the interesting thing that maria mentioned about the sanctions, are they going to be enough to change behavior? probably not because that is not the purpose of sanctions. the purpose of sanctions is to impose costs. tom: you touched on this but let's unpack a little bit more.
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to be clear, you think markets and investors are underestimating the risk at this point? guest: if you are directly exposed to russia or hold em debt in that part of the world, of course you are concerned. those areas have taken a hit. the ruble has taken a hit. what i think it is not appreciated is the wider systemic implications of the disruption in the gas supply. i don't think that is likely we would see a gas hike. in this tightening and inflationary environment, that would have more of an impact for markets than it would have had two years ago. francine: is there a timeline in which the market is discounting this because we talked about it so much? is there a timeline in which the market would move and what would move in the markets if we were
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to see an invasion? it is unclear if there would be retaliation from nato or whether the west has their hands tied with what they could do. guest: the markets are more interested in conflicts than security professionals. they are banking on if there is a confrontation that it will be a limited one. let's remember that the protections do not extend to ukraine. the u.s. has been consistent in telegraphing there would be no military response. with that in mind, i think the expectation is sanctions in the event of conflict. if there is a confrontation, it would be limited, as we saw in the past. we do have other voices saying that russia could possibly take a lot more territory. that is not priced in. tom: excellent insights. we will have to get you back on
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about the global implications another time. head of global political strategy at avon hearst. let's get the bloomberg first word news with laura wright. laura: joe rogan has pledged better research for his podcast and on apology aiming at calling controversy about misleading vaccine information. some artists pulled their music over rogan's show, which has hosted vaccine skeptics. rules are now published about what is and is not allowed on the platform. antonio costa has won portugal's general election and will have an absolute with geordie in parliament. costa, who had been per minister since 2015, has pledged budget discipline, stability, and higher household incomes as portugal looks to recover from the pandemic. the u.s. has agreed to talks with north korea.
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that as kim jong-un's regime has fired into ballistic -- intercontinental ballistic missiles for the first time since 2017. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: laura, thank you. coming up, everything changes, nothing changes. italy maintains stability with president and prime ministers staying in their jobs. we will be back live in rome next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: we are 45 minutes into the european trading day. gains about 1% across the benchmark. technology is up 2.7%, a catch-up with the gains we sought on wall street. treasuries, not him -- not a lot of movement. some solid gains in italy. 1.7% on the ftse. part of that is the political stability we are seeing. let's get back out to francine lacqua,, who has been monitoring for us on the ground. doing her best to imbibe them
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with caffeine. francine: i have. gdp flying because i've been drinking so many espressos. sergio mattarella will stay on as head of state. mario draghi remains as prime minister. it should maintain political stability, especially in the short-term, and that pushes away the prospect of a new election until spring 2023. joining us is our guest. thank you for joining us. a lot to talk about, but i guess we start with the dysfunction of the market taking this as positive news. what i saw last week was political indecision, dysfunctionality. what does that mean about how mario draghi can govern from now on? guest: i think this is really very important. we are seeing there are many challenges for our country.
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there are problems linked to the pandemic and the economic recovery. we had in 2021 been doing quite well in terms of economic growth and we want to continue on that track. thea duda -- the idea of continuing stability is important. francine: do you think mario draghi will continue the way he governs? he listens, but does what he wants. because he wants the presidency and did not get it this time around, will he be more accommodating to the political factions? is there a danger he does not have as strong a handhold as he had? guest: i don't think so. i think mario draghi has a very strong reputation all over the world. he has acted as the president of the european central bank. i don't really think he will go in the direction that the different parties want him to go. we need strong leadership and i
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think he will play this role. francine: will there be access to the funds until spring 2023, and how messy will those be? guest: i think we have so many deadlines. we approved draghi as president -- as prime minister. we approved the national plans for recovery and resilience. now we have more than 100 deadlines in the following year. that leads to projects and reforms. i think the stability will help us to carry out. there will be some problems because as we are approaching the elections, the political parties want to follow -- francine: the electorate. guest: yeah, the electorate.
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the electorate are very different, one from the other. francine: would you say that mario draghi has had two easy a time to push reforms through? the party said, let mario draghi do the tough decisions. we don't have an election. we can sit and wait. now they will say,. we don't want this reform now they will say, we don't want this reform. will these months be more difficult for mario draghi? francine: i think -- guest: guest: this i think the other option was dangerous. there is a lot of pessimism. it would be a problem of an increase in interest rates. we have a very high public debt. we were not really in the political position to be ready to go into elections right now. i think that this choice that
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the parliament was able to take drives the country in the right direction. francine: it just pushes the tough decisions further down the road. you can see a monument where the ecb stops by italian bonds going into elections and it is chaos again. -- stops buying italian bonds going into the elections and it is chaos again. guest: we have a very high public debt so there is always danger of a lack of support from the financial markets. but i think that having mattarella as president of the republic -- he has an important role when we assign a new prime minister, and therefore i think this will guarantee enough stability to avoid this kind of danger. francine: thank you. we will have plenty more from rome throughout the day, tom.
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tom: francine lacqua on the ground for us, picking out the political implications of italy. are we headed to $100 oil? news on the price of crude. that conversation is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> our shareholders value the
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dividends. we have a robust capital program, which is down significantly from what it was just a few years ago. very disciplined to regenerate those cash flows, a strong balance sheet, and we have in this environment cash that is surplus to those needs. and we have a history of returning that through share repurchases. we have repurchased shares 15 of the last 19 years. our investors understand our track record and it is very consistent with what they expect to see. reporter: obviously the run-up in your share price has to do a lot with the run-up we have seen in oil. brent $91 a barrel, wti $88 a barrel. do you anticipate a $100 oil and in what timeframe? >> predicting oil prices is fraught with difficulty. we are in what has been an up market as the economy grows and we begin to put the pandemic behind us.
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and we have seen demand grow very strong, even before we see people returning to normal office commutes, international travel, or business travel returning to pre-pandemic levels. demand has been strong. supply has been struggling a little bit to keep up with that, and that is reflected in the markets. of course, we have geopolitics that are present again. a few years ago, these types of events did not seem to really impact the commodity markets and today they appear to be doing so. $100 is certainly within the realm of what we could see in the next few months. longer-term, we think markets rebalance and prices will moderate. reporter: you may get some extra production coming on screen if we get to $100. not saying you, but others may decide to make that decision. the word discipline is the word i have heard most when i talked to energy ceos at the moment.
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every conversation i have seems to include the word discipline. do you think that discipline is maintained? what are your plans moving forward? if it gets to $100 a barrel, what are your plans? will you be increasing production? how do you see the landscape developing? >> our production in 2021 was a record, the highest it has ever been. permian was up 10% quarter on quarter as we closed the year. as we look to 2022, we have a couple big contracts in asia that expire. if you set those aside, we will grow again to percent to 5% in 2022. we are responding to the demand in markets but doing it with capital discipline. that is a keyword. tom: that was the ceo of chevron. brent oil at $91 of barrel. you are seeing a more convincing day, up 1.2%, led by italy's
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gains of 1.8%. that is it for the european market open. " surveillance: early edition" is up next. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> $100 is within the realm of what we could see. >> the massing of forces than anything we've seen in recent memory. >> the use of military force against ukraine will have severe consequences. francine: good morning everyone. looking at the political
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