tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 17, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EST
light as a vehicle to unify the west, unify nato, i thing is a really interesting tactic in deployed here. i've never really seen this before in terms of the way the west is playing the scum of the way to the white house is playing this. i think from a market point of view, it is how to manage this story. we are seeing a selloff. the ftse is down by around 1%. we've got the s&p down by around
1.27%. what i think is really interesting, take a look at the volume on the nasdaq. take a look at the volume taking place in terms of the bond market. it is relatively light. you have a u.s. holiday coming up monday. i wonder whether actually the market is looking at this, investors are looking at this and going, there's too much going on. we can't quantify the risk. those are two very different things. uncertainty is unquantifiable. really difficult for the market to manage. as a result of which, people are may be starting to retreat to the sidelines, from a market perspective, around all of this. really difficult to manage in terms of this story. just walk me through how this story in washington is developing from a technical point of view. the white house seems to be using the media, seems to be using the message in a very different way, maybe trying to
push back against what is coming out of the kremlin and trying to diffuse provocation. joe: it is a great point. we were talking last week with senator mark warner, who serves on the senate intelligence committee. he said this might actually be making numbers of the intelligence community a little nervous, the fact that we are leaning forward in putting out information as soon as we hear it to try to blunt the potential impact of something like a false flag operation that russia could be working on. that white house briefing room, almost every day recently, we have heard jen psaki and other white house officials talk about what they are hearing russia may be working on. so it kind of diffuses the event before it happens. this has been consistent right up until this morning president biden suggesting the probability of an attack is very high, our ambassador to the un's adjusting and attack be imminent. it seems to take the sting out of some of the comments we are hearing from moscow, talking about de-escalation or a pullback. as i mentioned a moment ago,
they are continuing to send blood supplies to the border of ukraine. it does not speak to a pullback. kailey: what could the u.s.'s next move be? they have been coordinating consistently with allies. is it a sanctions package out of congress? is that the next card to be played here? joe: you would think, but that sentience package is going nowhere fast. senators who lead the foreign relations committee could not see i to i on this and could not come to terms on legislation, so what they are going to do essentially is passed a nonbinding resolution that states our intentions and says if something does happen, we will be unified and sanction moscow. it is not a very good luck when you are trying to express unity here. this was supposedly only one yard line, according to bob menendez, the chair of the senate foreign relations committee. democrats want to hold sanctions for a possible invasion. republicans want to hit vladimir putin right now. by the way, that cyberattack we
saw yesterday in ukraine, said to be the biggest ever in ukraine, is the reason why. they say that is an act of war and justifies sanctions now, but there's no bill coming out of the senate apparently any time. the u.s. treasury, if we have to follow through dissensions, will be on its own. guy: we will leave it there. we will be back to you a little later on. joe mathieu joining us from d.c. as we await secretary of state antony blinken speaking before the u.n. before he heads once again to speak to european leaders gathering for the security conference. let's go to the markets. let's figure out what is happening here. really difficult for the markets to manage this story. critic up to has the latest -- kriti gupta has the latest. kriti:kriti: you are seeing a risk off session when it comes to the stock market, but you are seeing hidden pockets of demand. i always like to look at oil when we talk about that geopolitical risk. what is important to talk about is that the sector leading in the s&p right now, the energy sector is in the green.
the oil market is actually down at a 92 handle once again. look at the physical market. if you look at a terminal, at gtv , you can see the backwardation, which shows you just how strong the demand is for barrels of oil right here, right now. it is the strongest going all the way back to the gulf war. fantastic coverage when the talk about dated brent barrels. essentially, oil and the market right now is getting physically marked for delivery. those prices already heading $100 a barrel, so the spot market still dealing with political concerns from russia or iranian supply in the physical market. a very different story. kailey: it is the bond market as well, another perceived safe haven asset. the 10 year yield down 8.5 basis points today. is that just a haven bid or is that repricing fed expectations in light of some of the jew political uncertainties out there?
kriti: it is going to be a little bit of both. kailey: hold that thought. secretary of state in any blink and has begun speaking at the un security council. let's listen in. sec. blinken: as we meet today, the most immediate threat to peace and security is russia's looming aggression against ukraine. the stakes go far beyond ukraine . this is a moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people, as well as for the foundation of the united nations charter and the rules-based international order that preserves stability worldwide. this crisis directly affects every member of this council and every country in the world. because the basic principles that sustain peace and security, principles that were enshrined in the wake oftwo world wars -- of two world wars and a cold
war, are under threat. the rules that another country cannot change the borders of another country by force. the rules that one country cannot dictate another's choices or policies, or with whom they will associate. the principal of national sovereignty. this is the exact kind of crisis that the united nations and specifically this security council was created to prevent. we must address what russia is doing right now to ukraine. over the past months, without provocation or justification, russia has amassed more than hundred 50,000 troops around ukraine's borders, and russia, belarus, occupied crimea. russia says it is drawing down those forces. we do not see that happening on the ground. our information indicates clearly that these forces, including ground troops, aircraft, ships, are preparing
to launch an attack against ukraine and the coming days. we don't know precisely how things will play out, but here is what the world can expect to see unfold. in fact, it is unfolding right now, today, as russia takes steps down the path to war and reissued the threat of military action. first, russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack. this could be a violent event that russia will blame on ukraine or an outrageous accusation that russia will level against the ukrainian government --
and choose a different path while there is still time. now, i am mindful that some have called into question our information, recall ingredients -- recalling previous instances where intelligence did not bear out, but let me be clear. i am here not to start war, but to prevent one. the information i've presented here is validated by what we have seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months , and remember that while russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as melodrama and nonsense, they have been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops on ukraine's borders, as well as the could abilities to conduct a massive military assault. is not just us seeing this. allies and partners see the same thing, and russia has not only
been hearing from us. the international chorus has grown louder and louder. if russia does not invade ukraine, then we will be relieved that russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong. that would be a far better outcome than the course we are currently on. we will gladly accept any criticism that anyone directs at us. as president biden said, this would be a war of choice. if russia makes that choice, we have been clear, along with allies and partners, that our response will be sharp and decisive. president biden reiterated that forcefully earlier this week. there's another choice russia can still make. if there is any truth to its claim that it is committed to diplomacy, diplomacy is the only response of a way to resolve this crisis.
part of this is through an limitation of the minsk agreement's. they are a series of commenced that russia and ukraine made with the osce and the normandy format partners involved as well. if russia is repaired to sit with the ukrainian government and work through the process of implementing these commitments, or friends in france and germany stand ready to convene senior level discussions of the normandy format to settle these issues. ukraine is ready for this, and we stand fully ready to support the parties. progress toward resolving the crisis through the minsk agreement's can reinforce the broader discussions of security issues that we are prepared to engage in with russia, and coordinated -- in coordination with our allies and partners. more than three weeks ago, we provided russia with a paper that detailed concrete reciprocal steps that we can take in the near-term to address
our respective concerns and advance the collective security interests of russia, the united states, and our european partners and allies. this morning we received a response which -- our talks in recent weeks to discuss the steps that we can take to resolve this crisis without conflict. we are also proposing meetings of the nato-russia council and the osce permanent council. these meetings can pave the way for a summit of key leaders in the context of de-escalation to reach understandings on our mutual security concerns. as lead diplomats for our nations, we have response abilities to make every effort for diplomacy to succeed, to leave no diplomats stone unturned.
if russia is committed to diplomacy, we are present in every opportunity for it to demonstrate that commitment. i have no doubt that the response to my remarks here today will be more dismissals from the russian government about the united states stoking hysteria, or that it has no plans to invade ukraine. so let me make this simple. the russian government can announce today, with no qualification, equivocation, or deflection, that russia will not invade ukraine. state it clearly. state it plainly to the world, and then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, your planes back to their barracks and hangers, and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table. in the coming days, the world will remember that commitment,
or the refusal to make it. i yield the floor. >> i think his excellency -- i thank his excellency. guy: that was secretary of state antony blinken speaking at the u.n. before traveling to munich, where he will meet with european allies at the security conference taking place there. let's get back to washington.
-- right before he delivered those remarks. russia is set to aim a pretext for war. in response, prepare for the highest levels of the russian government to theatrically convene emergency meetings. that would be followed by a possible cyberattack on the capital of kiev itself, which could be highly disrupted after the attack we saw earlier this week. sec. blinken calling on washington to announce to the world clearly that it will not invade ukraine beyond pulling out forces from along the border. we will see if that happens today. i doubt anyone at the white house is expecting it. kailey: he also proposes for the diplomacy, proposing a meeting with sergei lavrov, russia's foreign minister, his counterpart from the kremlin, in europe next week. he outlined the path forward potentially for diplomacy, and
said they will need no diplomatic -- they will leave no diplomatic stone unturned. if nothing has been economist at this point, can it? joe: i thing this white house is very skeptical. if we are talking about an imminent attack following the many rounds of diplomacy that have already taken place, i don't think there's a lot of hope here. in fact, there's a lot of skepticism. but this white house has been consistent in that sense as well, that pursuing a diplomatic approach is preferred. they just don't believe what they are hearing in terms of de-escalation, and terms of a pullback, with now beyond what the 50 thousands -- beyond 150,000 troops along the border. and by the way, moscow isn't exactly singing a happy tune here. they actually removed our second diplomat in charge. the deputy chief has been expelled from moscow in what the u.s. is now calling unprovoked move that calling and unprovoked move -- calling and unprovoked
move. guy: what is happening with china? is there any communication, back channel communication between washington and beijing vis-a-vis what is happening in and around ukraine and what moscow is doing? joe: there were a lot of concerns after the olympics, that moment we solve let a and standing with president xi. the fact that this alliance is underway right now and the chinese have not condemned anything they have seen along the ukrainian border. in fact, the opposite. the foreign minister saying that russia's security concerns must be acknowledged, and there has been tacit approval of all of this so far with china. it is interesting, the president is preparing for his estate of the union address on the first of march. we thought that speech would have a lot to do with china. we are talking in washington about passing a china competes bill which has not come together yet, but that was supposed to be the charge for this administration in this new year
come to get china under control and to better compete with the government in china. we have not spent a lot of time talking about because of everything that has been happening in russia. vladimir putin has essentially sucked all of the oxygen out of the room. kailey: that is the story with one u.s. adversary. let's talk more about how the u.s. is navigating this conflict with our allies. is there no more consensus between the biden administration and olaf scholz's germany and emmanuel macron's france? re: now on the same page now that there's more of an economic risk? joe: this white house has been adamant about creating a unified message. just yesterday, the u.s. made the point that germany is doing more to help ukraine economically than any nation other than the u.s.. while they have been reluctant to send weapons there, you heard from olaf scholz himself at the
white house, who said we are together on this. of course, president biden had to finish his words to say that means nord stream 2, by the way, it is not going to happen if there is an invasion. the other side of this is energy. we have discussed this a lot. the united states administration is in the process of trying to find alternative sources of energy to help eastern europe if there was in fact they cut off from russia. that would go a long way to maintaining that unity. keeping in mind, you mentioned emmanuel macron, he was hoping to be able to take care of this himself as he visited moscow just about a week ago. everyone has had their own crack at this comedy sort of decentralized supplement see that we have seen, and it appears to be working well for this white house. guy: final quick question. a lot of people, a lot of investors are going to be watching this, trying to figure out what is happening. in terms of the visibility that we have right now, how would you characterize it? does anybody have any idea what
comes next, even over the next few hours, certainly over the weekend? we're coming up to a long weekend in the united states. joe: the answer is no. i am not sure most people around vladimir putin know what i wants to do here. he may not know himself exactly what to do. it is kind of the dog catching the car in this case. you have 150,000 troops plus along the ukrainian border. how do you get out of that? there's been a lot of talk about an offramp. we don't know what that is yet. vladimir putin is not the type to withdraw with his tail between his legs, heading back to moscow. so it is the level of uncertainty here that is remarkable. our intelligence on the ground does not know what the next move is going to be, and certainly people in the news media don't know either, so you are seeing this real reluctance to go along into a long weekend. i suppose we should not be surprised by that because this could take a lot of different paths over the next couple of days or hours. guy: thanks very much indeed.
we greatly appreciate your analysis. bloomberg's joe mathieu joining us from washington, d.c. this is the problem for the market. we are coming up to a long weekend, going into friday. we don't have visibility for the next few hours. this is why pricing is so difficult. hard to make accurate choices, hard to make quantifiable choices about where to put money to work. kailey: it is the definition of headline risk. we have seen these roiling the market throughout this week,'s with will be interesting to see as we head into the long weekend in the u.s. who is will and to put risk on. that is why we are seeing libor volumes -- perhaps that a c and why we -- perhaps that is why we are seeing lighter volumes. the european close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
a down day that has been getting worse as the day has progressed. equities have been moving lower as the geopolitical risk has been ramping up. volume has not been great which suggests investors are stepping out of the story, waiting to see what happens over the next few hours. a long weekend in the states. that will make managing risk very difficult. you want to be carried illiquid positions you cannot get out of? a lot of people be looking at their risk and tried to work out what they want to do. this is the picture. the dax is down .7%. the cac 40 down .3%. the real loser has been the ftse 100, down .9%. oil prices coming down. that has weighed on the ftse 100. more bright red when it comes to eastern europe, understanding -- understandable given the risk. in terms of the sector breakdown
, let's talk about the stock rotation story. very few sectors in positive territory. a defensive bias in the market. the grocery sector trading higher, food and beverages up. exactly where you would run to if you're looking for safety. the bottom of the market, travel and leisure under pressure. numbers from airbus and air france klm. we will talk about air france klm with the ceo ben smith. the energy sector is down, the banks are under pressure. in terms of individual names, let's talk about what has been happening. you have alter -- auto store sounds like a car company. it is a holder come -- it is a holding company, basically a warehouse management business. it has been having issues with acado in terms of a patent infringement. the bottom end of the market,
cloud computing business, gross margins are concerned. the market whacking that business down 23%. the travel and leisure sector under significant pressure. the number of reasons for this. the geopolitical story in europe, the tension in ukraine will pose another threat to this industry. the other factor is air france klm was out with numbers early on. the numbers look good but what is weighing on that stock has been ben smith, the ceo talking about the idea the company could be looking to raise money to repay some of the state aid given during the pandemic. let's go to paris. ben smith, the air france klm ceo is joining us. i want to talk about the future of the business. first i would like to get your take as geopolitics come as ukrainian situation has dominated the news cycle over the last few days and weeks, just as a ceo of a large european airline, are you
changing the way you are thinking of flying your aircraft over the next few days and weeks as a result of the risk that exists of a conflict in europe? ben: for sure. we have faced many of the situations in the past. we have a similar situation going on in africa. we will adapt. it is not new so right now we are still serving the ukraine and we are watching it every hour and we will adapt when and if necessary. guy: let's turn our attention therefore to what you are going to do next with the business. i think the market was surprise today you are so forthright in your view it was time to step up and look at options to raise money to repay some of the eight you have received. why is now the right time? we are not fully out of the pandemic. we have a geopolitical story
rearing its head as well. why is now the right time to start thinking about that? ben: with our group we have been through two years of difficult trading. last year we started to see things turnaround. first off in june went europe and restrictions for americans coming into europe, we saw pent-up demand. very pleased with that. when the u.s. reciprocated in november we reached 90% of our 2019 capacity over the holiday period. this is coming off a very heavy medium hall demand during the summer. we have been pleasantly surprised at how quickly the market comes back when borders are open, and every week now we are seeing an easing of restrictions. we are being a little more optimistic and aggressive with the capacity we are planning for next year -- this year,
especially in the third quarter. we feel it is a good time. we have decent momentum. you saw our results today. we outperformed the consensus. we are more optimistic than we would have been when the omicron variant was first announced. ben: in terms -- guy: in terms of where you are in that process , are you leading in any direction in terms of the best way to do that? what are you being advised? ben: our assumption right now is asia will remain closed, at least for the next few quarters. we are looking at how we can redeploy our capacity. there is a lot less capacity and a lot less airplanes that used to fly the transatlantic than before. american airlines has pulled out a big part of the widebody fleet. we have other carriers that are much weaker. we see a nice opening for us to
redeploy some capacity on the transatlantic. paris is a big leisure market. we are not as affected by business traffic. we think the timing is right to try to get into a rights issue or something along those lines. guy: i've been listening to what the low-cost carriers have been saying. they are clearly itching to put a lot of capacity back into europe. are you going to manage your approach to europe given the fact they have that capacity, they have -- we have two powerful intercontinental hubs. we have amsterdam that has been optimized over last 40 years, a
lot of experience in connecting customers. that airport is saturated. there are no slots. surplus capacity is not possible for amsterdam. we will continue to refine our operation there. we have a diversified network that we can move flying around, also amsterdam, our operation with klm, the size of our business cabinets are relatively small in europe. we are not our operation with klm is the size of our business cabins fairly small in europe so we are not as exposed as lufthansa. france is the largest inbound tourist market in the world. we have orly airport for local traffic. it is saturated so low cost carriers would like to increase capacities and cannot do so at orly. at charles de gaulle, our other
main airport in paris is a very expensive airport to operate on and we have seen very little restrictions. we managed to lift all those restrictions we have a low-cost unit that can help us fend off the low cost. any issues with labor. we have some of best opportunities in europe so we don't foresee any issues on
filling the opportunities we need. we don't see any increased demands for the summer. guy: we appreciate your time. ben smith the klm ceo, thank you very much. european markets are now closed and a negative session with london performing -- underperforming a little bit. the tribe -- the travel and leisure sector is under pressure today in the numbers coming out. we will continue the conversation in a moment.
joining us as the ceo of pioneer national resources. scott, you are speaking on the analyst call after your most recent quarterly report saying oil could easily go to $150 a barrel in the coming months but that will not change your production plans in your growth rate of 5% a year. if other players in the shell patch do not follow suit, where is that going to leave pioneer? scott: thanks. it is great to be with you and guy today. we have committed to our long-term shareholders will be growing 0% to 5% regardless of the oil price. will be sending 80% of our cash flow back in the form of dividends to our investors. in addition we have announced a $4 billion stock buyback. it has been well-received, both the dividend and the stock buyback in that regard. fourth-quarter we sent over 100% of our free cash flow back to the investor.
about half of the public independence are hearing to that zero to 5%. a few private are growing faster . i have stated publicly their inventory will be depleted fairly quickly going forward. i do not see u.s. production contributing -- that it has had over the last several years. guy: can you talk to me about how you think the private operators should be "reined in"? what does that look like? scott: this is a flaring chart. they collect the data from all of the shale basins from the regulatory bodies in each state and we still have several privates, well over 1% flaring. we need to rein them in, combination of state regulatory bodies and epa under the federal
guidelines. the federal bodies and also investors, whether they are bond investors, private equity investors, or public investors. the privates need to rein in. kailey: the story we have been following his geopolitics, the situation on the border with ukraine and potential russian action which russia denies. should there be armed conflict, should that result in a disruption of energy flows, could pioneer increase production to help make up any potential shortfall? scott: no. pioneer will stay with our plan. we announced a capex plan regardless of whether it is $150 oil or 100 donald oriole we will not change arc -- $100 oil we will not change our growth plans. saudi and uae have a pact with opec-plus. they are the only two countries that can change that they will decide what to do under that
scenario. if russian oil is sanctioned or russia decides to stop exporting, it will be up to the saudi and uae to decide whether or not to break the pact and increase production under those guidelines. guy: if the president phoned you up and said we need more oil, what are you going to say to him? scott: eltel him we have a pact, it is all about the shareholders. our shareholders on this company. they want a return of cash. we know what happens when we increase u.s. shale too much of last 10 years. we have had a collapse. we are growing. we are growing 5% long-term, and that is goodwe are enough for te president if he calls me. kailey: [laughter] let us know if that day happens, we would love to talk to about that conversation. in terms of what your shareholders want, obviously you
are for mayor ties and returning money to them. does that mean enough no m&a ise table? scott: no m&a at all. we are doing small deals, we are buying small deals, we are selling small deals. pioneer has the longest inventory of anybody in u.s. shale. 15 to 20 years, no reason to buy large m&a. we have the greatest dividend, the highest dividend of the s&p 500. guy: book on of inflation are you seeing right now? -- what kind of inflation already seeing right now? materials, people? scott: being the largest permian operator and the most with drilling rigs, we get the best costs in the basin. we have seen a 10% to a 15% increase over the second half of 2021. we hunger seeing a 5% to 20% increase in 2020 to -- we are seeing a 5% to 20% increase in
2022. pioneer is set. other producers are having trouble getting frack cruise, they having trouble getting labor, and having trouble getting sand. that is an issue and that will keep anybody from growing, even if the president wants us to grow i do not think the industry can grow anyway. kailey: we begin this conversation with your statement we could see oil going to $150 in the coming months. when will see that come down and supply and demand more in balance? what is your expectation? scott: i've been through six cycles over the last 40 years in the industry. the last time we had a demand cycle was 1980 to 1981. oil was about 15 and went to $50. we have the spot market up to $100. we had to get to a price where people reduced demand. most people are saying that is about 15 and wentroute $150.
guy: always great to catch up. we will leave it there. we are seeing a lot of scratch on the microphone so we'll leave the conversation there. scott chatfield, pioneer natural resources -- struck sheffield, pioneer natural rate -- pioneer natural resources cfo. it makes me wonder what the fed will be doing at $150 a barrel. kailey: and what the biden administration will be doing. maybe they will be calling scott sheffield. for the oil market, it is not just about the shale factor. iran is now back on the table as a conversation point the potential removal of those sanctions could be more supply coming back onto the market. that is something oriole traders are contending with today. guy: it is amazing. such a complicated market. try to figure out the shape of the curve, absently amazing in terms of the spot in the backwardation. let's talk about other corporate
guy: airbus softer today despite the fact the company posted record net income last year and is planning to reinstate its dividend. i spoke to the airbus ceo earlier and asked, given the fact the company is growing, given the dividend is being reinstated, when the pandemic is down the rearview mirror. guillaume: the pandemic is not behind us but we are in the recovery. we delivered 611 aircraft, slightly higher than our guidance. still a long way to go to
recover the 863 we delivered in 2019. moving forward but still with the effects of the pandemic. guy: what is happening now? clearly inflation is a big narrative. how is it affecting airbus? guillaume: in the last 18 months we have focused on the demand side, reorganizing the production to adapt to the pandemic situation. moving forward we are ramping up again and doing this in a complex environment for our supply chain and our suppliers. i guess the next 18 months will be managing the situation with suppliers. there are in a complex situation to manage with access to raw material being difficult the prices being very high. the price of energy is very high. logistics are a challenge and the prices are very high. last but not least, finding the
right people in the right employees, the human resources is becoming increasingly difficult. anna: let me ask you about a public standoff with qatar airways. they have been a big buyer of the airbus aircraft. they have been loyal buyers. are you ready to lose qatar airways as a customer if that is where this ends up? guillaume: we are in an unfortunate situation with qatar airways. we disagree on an important aspect of the dispute. therefore we want to defend ourselves. qatar has been a claim against airbus. we will work hard to find an amicable resolution because we want to stay with qatar airways and generally speaking we are working hard to serve customers. that is what we have done in the last two years. we want to keep doing this moving forward.
i hope we find a way forward with qatar airways. guy: guy return to the issue of the 350 and the issue surrounding the paint and the flaking that is happening on the aircraft? how close to a fix are you with the qatar aircraft. how close of a fix are you broadly with the fleet and how many other customers are being affected by this problem? easy issue with those customers as well? guillaume: we have a specific situation to manage with qatar airways that is linked to the fact they have taken the decision with the authorities to grant a number of airplanes -- to ground a number of airplanes because of the situation. we consider there is no reason to ground airplanes. that is why we have a very different situation with other airlines and we are managing the issue. it is not a big issue in the way
we are managing other airlines in a professional way. again we have a specific situation with qatar airways we need to manage as such. guy: the airbus ceo talking to the team earlier on. kailey, more news relating to ukraine. kailey: more news from in the u.s.. a group of ruble can senators have asked the department of -- a group of republican senators have asked the department of energy to increase lng to supply europe. this is something the administration has been focused on as it looks ukraine and the disruption of energy flows. some senators trying to make sure there is that backstop for european energy supply. coming up they will continue this conversation on "balance of power" with david westin. wilson center president emerita jane harman be joining him on bloomberg tv and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪
we do not know vladimir putin once an offramp or not. >> to the world of business. >> were not used to seeing these inflation reduced sales. >> this is "balance of power" with david westin. david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." tensions with russia over its intentions ever ukraine continue to escalate with president biden this morning saying the probability of an invasion is "very high" and antony blinken appearing before the un security council the layout u.s. intelligence but saying it is possible to avoid an armed conflict. in report turn sat down with ukraine's ambassador to the united states. annmarie: make you so much for joining bloomberg. >> thank you very much. it is always a pleasure. annmarie: