tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 18, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EST
is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets, european close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: let's talk about the price action for the markets. european stocks are down. it is being buffered a little but actually we spent a whole week basically around the 460 level. the last few days, not a whole lot of movement. where we are seeing some direction is lower for u.k. 10 year yields. the last few days, we have come down around from the 1.6 level to around the 1.39 level. the market is reassessing maybe
the story here in the u.k. because the pendulum swung too far. talking about the need to raise rates gradually. talking a few minutes ago about we need a significant move in terms of u.s. rate pointing us toward 50 maybe. going in the opposite direction in the u.k. brent crude down a little bit remaining relatively elevated. we spoke yesterday about the idea we could go well north of 100. today, that is not happening. kailey: oil traders have to be excited. -- have to be exhausted. we may end the week on a sour note. how much risk you want to be taking until long we can and u.s. with the uncertainty around the geopolitical story going on. right now looks like not much risk once to be put on. the nasdaq is down. one story we did want to focus on is ford.
considering how to run its ev business up early from its traditional combustion engine business. we are seeing the yield move lower in the u.s. as well. down a little more than two basis points. i would point to a stronger dollar. maybe that strong dollar store is why you are not seeing more euro strength on the back of the headline the ecb is edging toward a rate hike this year. guy: one factor that may complicate that would be what is happening in and around ukraine. tensions continue to escalate around ukraine. saint really are on bloomberg, still seeing time for diplomacy with russia. he joined bloomberg tv first thing this morning to talk about the best way forward. >> the west is blinking. this time we cannot blink. we must say we want peace. we have a lot of responses that
we can put on our side and pressured. this should be our strategy. russians are not stupid people. they are brilliant negotiators. they might get to their senses again. guy: let's talk about what is happening on the ground. this is a serious situation. a lot of people don't know what is actually going on, with situation looks like on the ground. one of those people us. mark champion. he has been there recently. he joins me now here in the studio. you have been there. you have an idea of what the land looks like, with a set of looks like. what are you reading in terms of this escalation, de-escalation story? mark: first thing to say, outside of a small circle in the, knows what the big question, what7 will do.
the big things to look at it and say, what is he doing right now? he is doing right now what he has been doing for several weeks or months and that really is to create as much turmoil, as much uncertainty as he can. that in in itself is a benefit. it makes everything expensive for the ukrainians, makes -- it costs money. that is to get attention and is that, look, i can do this for a while. that doesn't give us the answer to whether he actually intends to go in and put everything in place as the americans have said, to go in he can do it at any moment, as they say, is true. kailey: let's talk about eastern ukraine and the separatists indombask saying they're going to need accurate women and children, that putin has ordered payments for the refugees.
how significant is that? how does that change the landscape? mark: it is another ratcheting up. it is one of the things you would do it you're going to start the conflict. you can look back to georgia in 2008. it wasn't long before that conflict that women and children were moved down to the city. it is something you do. it sends a signal, a strong signal. i don't thanks again -- i don't think for gives us an answer to the big question. guy: quickly. very quickly. you say it could happen quickly but this is a very well telegraphed building -- >> russia brought a document to
the u.n. secure counsel alleging genocide. this was also done in georgia in the beginning of the conflict and he's by russia as one of the justifications for going into georgia and later turned out it was not true, 2000 people had been killed, so by that is not really the point. the point is you're setting the pieces in place and the more pieces you put in place like blood supply, bridges, all these different things, the more people will become legitimately concerned that there will be conflict. it creates more pressure, more leverage, and more cost. it is all part of a strategy if you like. we just do not know the endgame. kailey: let's talk specifically about ukraine. while you have seen the u.s. presidents, the chief of nato across the board talking about
these risks, ukraine has been careful not to be so bombastic with the language around these threats. we heard from ukrainian officials and is not helpful domestically, it sows fear in the population. has her message changed at all? mark: not really. they have a very serious problem. for them, it is quite possible there is never an invasion and yet the pressure on ukraine, the cost of ukraine is enormous. investors leave most of the cost of borrowing that goes up. and people do panicked and started to stop going to work and things start to start freezing up and fall apart so there is a fear i think in ukraine putin is going to get what he wants without even invading if things get out of control within ukraine. there's also the geopolitical
instability. when people get bored, they get more angry, becomes more difficult for the government to maintain control. it is very complicated story for them. kailey: thank you so much for staying on top of the story. insightful reporting, marc champion. we understand president biden will be on a call with transatlantic leaders at 2:30 eastern and will be giving an update from the roosevelt room around 4:00 p.m. eastern time. we will watch out for those remarks. we are also watching the remarks from fed officials, john williams in new york who says it is appropriate to raise the fed's key rate at the march meeting and seek balance sheet reduction starting later this year. this follows charles evans of the chicago fed president sang the fed is caught wrongfooted on policy and may need significant adjustment. we will continue -- a substantial adjustment, rather. we will continue to monitor these headlines. what do investors do in places are unquantifiable?
are still fluid. the situation is fluid. >> geopolitical risk we are seeing in markets does present some challenges in the near-term. >> very hard to read. >> markets are struggling to connect the dots and understand how that this is. guy: great voices that have been joining us here on bloomberg talking about uncertainty. uncertainty is the key word because basically, uncertainty is unquantifiable -- risk is unquantifiable, uncertainty is not. how do you deal with the current situation? you have uncertainty surrounding ukraine, what is going to happen there. the fed risk is also a problem but it is risk, so maybe it is a little more manageable. joining us to discuss all of this is ed smith. how are you
thinking about the problems in front of you at the moment when you think about the portfolios you have to manage? yeah uncertainty, geopolitical uncertainty. you have the fed risk on the back of -- bank of england risk. that is a little more quantifiable. how are you thinking about the portfolios in this difficult, uncertain environment? edward: that is a great question. for us at the moment, a lot of the uncertainty is really around inflation. the uncertainty around bond yields comes back to inflation. the uncertainty around the geopolitics of russia and ukraine really comes back to the price of energy, which comes back to the uncertainty around inflation. the biggest threat is the valuations. market expectations are already at fixed rate hikes in the u.s.
it is also so now -- not so much rate hikes but bond yields that matter. they have already reason i close to the average amount than recent had during the last four periods. we are confident enough to remain invested in equity markets, but you have to think about getting some protection from inflation due to that uncertainty. profitable growth stocks entirely, but we're also adding -- kailey: let's talk further about where you find that protection. how do you hedge? edward: we are predominately long investors. we're thinking about what performed well last year. we think a lot of the paradigm of last year is going to continue. the best parts of the markets were a mix of profitable technology companies, which have
strong pricing power, inflation -resilient earnings, together with financials and she could valuations which benefit the environment. we think the rest of 2022 will be characterized similarly. there is an opportunity but we also think you need to have that protection on energy, financials, and other sectors. guy: let's talk about where you fight that. there has been the site, view a out of the united states -- there has been the case you want to pivot out of the united states. does the geopolitical situation change that? does the ecb changing change that? send the back end of last year? edward: we are sticking with our overweight stocks we have had for some time now.
eurozone market causally outperform the u.s. this week by about four percent year-to-date. the direct economic effect from russia going to war in ukraine is just -- banking sectors, small risk of financial crisis through that channel. war in ukraine could raise energy prices. it could raise inflation expectations, could raise government bond yields. all of this is beneficial to stocks. often correlated with your performing the u.s. given that threat by the gas supply, we think country selection within your is quite important so maybe france, maybe germany for example. the countries less at risk to have --
kailey: those high energy prices are just one portion of high am put. where you find the most pricing power? edward: that is why we are not ditching the gray sector entirely. we are looking for companies with strong margins. some are found in the can occasions sector and tech sectors as well. -- some are found in the communications sector and tech sectors as well. the cost of living crisis in the u.k. and general wage crisis, we are looking forward industrials rather than consumer goods -- industrial companies with strong technological niches. guy: what do you think about cash right now, and? edward: a little more of it than we usually -- part of that comes back to balance.
we need to ensure we -- kailey: do you view it as a buying opportunity? edward: potentially. we're going below where we want them to be, consider buying. but as we were talking about at the top of the interview, uncertainty is quantifiable so we do not want to be hero at the moment. conscious risk-taking. kailey: edward smith, thank you for joining us. stay safe and the wind storm in the u.k. coming up, we will take a look
angel: looking at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. we now have the price tag for one of the biggest trading debacles in the trading of 2020. chart can charge a 4.2 but he dollars in the collapse of the florida-based hedge fund. the german firm warned investors there may be more pain to come. facing multiple lawsuits and regulatory probes. google and facebook meta are facing a data doomsday in the european union. one of the regions top private
dishwasher talks could pair less transatlantic data flows and risk billions in revenue for the two companies. it has to do with contract term used by meta, google, and others. bloomberg has learned traders ubs will see bonuses cut by about 10% on average. this went -- it took 861 mind on the head from the collapse of prime brokerage client most of the overall, the bonus poker ubs employees will increase by around 10%. that is the latest bloomberg distance flash. kailey: for more on the ubs tree, we welcome our resident wall street correspondent. banks across wall street are helping bonuses they are giving to their employees. the swiss banks are not. where has that put him in terms of talent, getting talent in the door and retaining the talent? sonali: great question.
the decline in the trending business. the investment bank, the visor he staff, and other underwriters, there is an increase in the bonus pool about 15%. that is less than on average at the big u.s. banks. by the way, this is a smaller trading business anyway. goldman sachs, j.p. morgan, standing deeper and deeper into your to capture more share. a key thing to watch over ubs is rock roski, the investment bank chief. he is somebody who is only gained more influence in this new era of ubs. under the newark ceo, watching -- newark ceo, watching to really make the most out of that global wealth franchise is going to be a key thing to watch here. guy: let's dig into this. from a management point of view, how important is that these traders performance year?
we're going into a tough, volatile period. they need top talent to generate decent returns. in terms of the business would like going forward, how important are these guys? sonali: they are important insofar as they fit into the broader business. another story i think telling about the culture of ubs with the changes is the scoop from yesterday about ubs playing down bankers titles to get rid of the hierarchy that is there. remember, bankers and banker culture typically loves hierarchy. we would have to get every name and every title properly correct in the stories or they get upset about it. the culture is changing. the other thing we were talking about earlier is trading is a business that is increasingly automated. if they invest in technology, protect yourself a little bit there on the talent side. kailey: talking about where you're investing and not, is
this a one-year story for these banks? they are trying to keep costs under control. is this going to be a story for years to come? sonali: some is a one-year story. the reduction in the onus is for the traders are partially -- no matter what, if you are a trader, your money is tied to how much you bring in. this year, it is going to be a big year. very volatile market. you want to still capture share. many executives -- david solomon said yesterday that we are not going to see levels necessarily like we saw last year but levels could still be elevated. guy: sonali, where are the traders based? where the people affected based? sonali: all over the world. ubs has a lot of people in your, but they are still a robust business in the u.s. they have a massive presence here but when it comes to trading, prime brokerage, but also well. again, a lot of the business ubs
doesn't support their wealthy clients here. guy: always appreciate it. thank you, sonali. quick look at european markets, heading into the close this friday. i think a lot of positions yesterday, certainly seeing the dax under pressure. ftse down. we will come back and do with the details as well. your seeing some action in the bond market. -- you are seeing some action under the bond market. we are heading into a long weekend for the united states which does affect orchids all around the world, particularly here in europe. it is friday, windy outside. maybe it is time to go home. this is "bloomberg." ♪
but we are finally there, the end of trading for the week in europe. we are wrapping up. a choppy week but not a week that is given as much direction. an east-west divide in terms of the markets. the dax down 1.5%, big names down will stop volkswagen is down, allianz is down as well. some of the heavyweights have a get impact. the dax is calculated in a different way. the dax down 1.5%. the cac 40 is down .3%. i'm surprised the u.k. has not ended up somewhere up here in scandinavia as the wind has blown us in that direction. we will see where we finished the day. the ibex down .9%. some of the eastern european markets, the austrian market down 1.5%. geopolitical tension front and
center. let's talk about the week. what this week has delivered in terms of direction, down 1.88%. as you can see we saw drop down at the beginning of the week the climb up of tight trading range, tuesday and wednesday and thursday. friday we faded it. it is not that big a move relative to the incredible news cycle we have seen. central banks, but mainly the geopolitical tension. the fact that we potentially have war in europe any day in the stock market is down 1.9% tells me i think the market is a bit confused, trying to manage the uncertainty is very difficult. we've been trading around the 460 level for some time. let's talk about the sector rotation. where her cuisine movement and action in terms of the sector story? -- where have we seen movement and action in terms of the sector story? perps are flattening.
-- curbs are flattening. energy down 3% as well. a lot of chopped in the energy market. the only sector that has done well, food and energy, you all of also seeing the grocery sector doing well. the defensive end of the market has outperformed. let's talk about individual names. reckitt margin developing pretty good. this is a household cleaning products company. up 1.64% in a down market. iag, the travel sector has been under pressure, iag down 2.3%. then we get into the luxury sector. here is the head scratcher for me. trying to get a hold of a hermes handbag is as difficult as ever. if you want to get one you have to get on a waitlist. secondhand sounds pejorative.
there is a strong market. residuals remain. as we were discussing a few days ago, this is an asset class. hermes having supply chain issues, supply-side issues, but demand continues to rock. the stock down 4.6%. kailey: even if i could afford a bag, i could probably not get one. you cannot keep up with the burton demand because you are so constrained on the supply side. that works against them in this quarter. you have to start thinking about -- do they have to start thinking about their production model differently? they will can -- swetha: they will continue with steady growth rather than the media work
growth the rest of the sector has seen. hermes strategy will be to have the steady growth. they have been hit more than other peers, they said the average bag can take more than 50 hours to make which is labor compared to other brands. their approach has been steady pace growth. although their numbers may look anemic compared to the rest of the industry which has seen a sharp acceleration in the final quarter of the year as the holiday giftgiving demand kicked in, bag can they will also be me resilient in an eventual downturn as we saw during the global financial crisis. guy: we got up to around 1300 -- i'm looking at the wrong numbers. the stock has had a good run. to what extent is today's move about that valuation? swetha: this is definitely one of the higher valued companies within the sector. i would put this in the same league as for ari, even though
for ari -- ferarri is steeper, -- we have seen the company valuation give up some of the highs we may have seen in september. the perplexing thing is earnings numbers keep going up because the margin figure they reported is actually a record high for the company. free cash flow generation remain strong. there increasing their dividend payout. although the numbers are going up the share price has given up some of its gains from last year. that is a valuation reaction. kailey: prices for their products are also going up. that is not just a hermes story. is there any limit to the there increasing their dividend payout. although the numbers are going up thepricing power given how sg demand has been? swetha: that is the great question, how far can the industry push through price increases without the consumer saying enough? what we are hearing is the
current environment is very robust and the companies are unanimously saying there is limited demand elasticity, particular at the higher end. in some ways these brands increasing prices are doing it to protect themselves from being ubiquitous or being perceived as cheap relative to other brands raising prices because this is an industry where higher prices encourage demand rather than destroy it. guy: this will sound like a slightly odd question. what is the correlation between hermes, lvmh, and crypto? swetha: interesting question. i would think to -- i would think the crypto phenomena is more played out in the watch space. there seems to be some loose correlation between the explosion in watch demand and investing in crypto. hermes and lvmh have seen extraordinary growth in the u.s. but that seems to be a function of new wealth widening across
different cities. cities like austin becoming new hotspots for luxury. i think for them it is about engaging with the new younger customer that necessarily a crypto related one. kailey: talking about hotspots for luxury, what about headwinds around china? do you worry about that? swetha: chemchina the sector is underpenetrated. we may have an impression that everyone in china is consuming luxury goods, but there more than 400 million members of the middle class. it is estimated there are 50 to 20 million luxury consumers overall. the structural runway for growth remains intact, which is why even as we saw consumption soft and in china, luxury sales were very resilient. what i'm interested in is the return of chinese tourism because that used to be quite important for european brands which do not have as much of a physical foothold in china. once they return to europe we can see a further boost to these
companies revenues for that. guy: one final quick question. the earnings season, has this earnings season changed anything? who has come out well, who has not come out of it well? have we learned anything new, has any strategy changed, has an investment perspective changed? swetha: in some senses the sector tends to be a little bit unpredictable because it is outperformed for the last six consecutive years. i would say what we have learned incremental is the u.s. consumer has emerged as a new engine. it used to be all about the chinese consumer. the u.s. consumer for luxury has emerged as a force to contend with. the second thing we have learned is these companies are capable of generating extraordinary operating leverage as the revenues growth and that is why we've seen the companies report
over 50 to 60% profit expansion on 40 30% revenue growth. markets and expanded by 500,000 basis points relative to pre-pandemic for the stronger companies. there is a gap emerging in that the strong brands are getting stronger. if you can imagine the louis vuitton brand is 40% larger today than it was pre-pandemic while perhaps a brand like berberry is flat. that shows you the market share gains are accruing to the lucky few. guy: the strong seem to be getting stronger. thank you ray much indeed. swetha ramachandran joining us on the luxury sector. we are done in europe for the week. a little tick during the option, not much movement. stocks moving down there session lows. the german in particular under pressure. we'll carry on the coverage at
the top of the hour. the cable taking to the air at 5:00 in london. a little windswept today. 12:00 in new york. less windswept. live on dab digital radio. you can get just on all of your bloomberg devices. find the podcast on spotify and itunes. kailey: millionaire investors may have lost one way to become residents of the u.k. the end of the golden visa program, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
here is the first word news. the u.s. now says russia house mast as many as 190,000 personnel in and around ukraine. it calls of the most significant military mobilization since world war ii. the u.s. has ramped up warnings about a possible russian attack on ukraine. russian officials say no invasion is planned. a giant cargo ship carrying almost 4000 vehicles from volkswagen pop fire and is adrift near the azores islands in the atlantic. the crewmembers were taken off by the helicopter. luxury models, including porsche, audi, and lamborghini. storm chaos across london. more than 150,000 homes are without power. hundreds of flights have been canceled and wines may reach 80 miles per hour. it follows less than 48 hours after storm dudley caused disruption. eunice is also making its impact
fell across europe. people in germany and amsterdam and france are bracing for severe weather. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am angel feliciano. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much. i want to turn back to the russia story but from a different angle. it has been a traditional way for millionaires to live in the u.k., they agreed to invest a minimum of $2.7 million, 2 million pounds, and then they get what is called a golden visa. that puts them on a path to become a resident. you get additional residency allowance and then you could extend that as well. that program this week was scrapped by the home secretary, part of an effort to end fraud and the influence of russian money, elicit russian money in the u.k., in the city of london.
showing us is catherine mcginnis, the city of london corporation's chair and resources committee. thank you for your time. we appreciate it. as we watch the geopolitical situation around ukraine, there is been much made that we have not done enough to deal with the issue of the influence that russian money, often from opaque sources, has in the u.k. what would your suggestion be and you think we are moving fast enough? catherine: let me start by saying i am here to talk about our relationship with u.s. but i'm happy to comment by saying we need to go things. i think we need appropriate rules and procedures in place to make sure we are following all of the right money laundering and make sure the business we are carried on is totally
legitimate. secondly we need to look at our immigration rules and procedures to look at how we can enable people to have access to the workforce in the right set of international talent and at the same time look carefully at what are natural -- our national interests are. the situation in ukraine is extremely concerning and underlies the fact we need to build on our global relationships and that is why i'm looking forward to my own trip to the u.s. next week to look at how we can strengthen relationships and increase cooperation on wrigley torrey and other matters. -- on regulatory and other matters. kailey: i understand you will be in new york city next week for an editorial board and certainly we are looking forward to that in bloomberg. guy: we are looking forward to that. i suspect you will be asked questions about this issue there. i will not prejudge that, there
will be other issues that will be discussed as well. you expect to have to field questions on this, do you expect there will be pressure on this? do expect the u.k. is now under pressure to do more? catherine: we all lead to be looking at whether we have the right rules in place to make sure appropriate money laundering checks are made in the business that is carried on his legitimate. i that we have one of the best regulatory systems in the world. i think we have appropriate systems in place, but we can always have a look at how we improve them and we also need to look at times of tension like this to support sanctions or whatever other measures are taken to deal with the situation that we are seeing. i am not an expert on that. what i am focused on is how we can work together, how we can have coherence and cooperation
when we're looking at regulation and how we can look at what is globally appropriate. kailey: where you see those opportunities to work together with partners like the u.s.? catherine: we have very close connections, strong trading links, and a common outlook. when we look at financial and professional services and we look at some of the challenges and opportunities there are in the world at the moment, whether that is the challenge of meeting the recovery following the pandemic, none of that is the challenge posed by climate change, but the opportunity that also presents, i think they're sick of get issues we could be working on. actually the pace of innovation -- my close colleagues the lord mayor is on the west coast looking at fintech and what connections can be built.
i think building on our already strong relationships, there a lot of potential for the future. guy: there was an expectation post-brexit the u.k. and the united states may be a do some sort of trade deal and financial services would be a significant part of that. are you disappointed we have not seen more progress? catherine: we would love to see a comprehensive trade agreement with the u.s. with a strong chapter on financial and professional services, but there are many other ways to strengthen and collaboration. i will be talking about what we can do around regulatory cooperation and dialogue and we are participants in the british american finance, which is a transatlantic coalition of trade associations for the sector. we are keen to look at what we can do together on issues such as sustainability, market access, and digital regulation.
to give get issues on both sides of the atlantic, areas where we have common interests. kailey: here in new york city, we heard from mayor eric adams earlier this week saying people need to come back to the office. obviously there is economic implication. is it the same in london? how's is the city economy coping? catherine: it has been a difficult time particular for an area like ours in the heart of london and dependent on office footfall. it has been great to see life beginning to return and vibrancy come back to our streets. people have been coping well with financial professional services with working remotely but they are telling us they want to be back together with all the advantages, and we are seeing people smile and enjoy themselves as they come back together in the city. the numbers are going up again, thank goodness. guy: can i point out not today
stop not today. the trade is empty. catherine: nor me either. guy: absolutely. this is just anecdotally, but i talked to a lot of people. a lot of people i are saying i need a couple of days at work to bury myself in the spreadsheet and that id does store three days in the office, that is still a significant long-term degradation of the number of people coming into the city of london. how does the city adapter that more hybrid approach going forward? catherine: i do not think we yet know what the new normal will look like long-term. you're absolute right. people are talking about a different pattern of working and we need to accommodate that. we need to make sure that what we have in the city tracks them back with our planning rules and what we are doing. we are looking at what the
different requirements will be, what will people want from the public space around the offices, what will they want in terms of the hospitality sector? space around theis a major foce moment. how do we adapt to that new normal, but how we make sure people want to come back. kailey: something we are all never getting currently. thank you for your time and safe travels to the u.s. next week. catherine mcginnis, appreciate it. this is bloomberg. ♪
i'm not sure which bit i more excited about, this being on the italian food. i am sounding a bit -- the skiing for the italian food. i am sounding like jon ferro. you have to wear a mask on the lift which i'm slightly concerned about. you can take it off when you want to eat. kailey: italian wine as well. enjoy your trip, well deserved. you are so close. that is because guy is heading to radio to join the cable. coming up will bk bailey hutchinson, former u.s. permanent representative to nato. do we joining balance of power with david westin later on. guy: will be on the cable and try to figure out what this week has delivered. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
banking committee have asked and gotten responses to hundreds of questions at some point you have to look at this and say isn't this a delaying tactic? >> to the world of business -- >> about 13 point 5% on the fourth quarter fiscal calendar. that is very strong. >> this is "balance of power" with david westin. david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." markets continue to react to the geopolitics of tensions in ukraine as they have all week long. abigail doolittle is your the latest on the market. to what extent are markets reacting to the back-and-forth over ukraine? abigail: it is hard to break it out, but we do know is investors are not pleased. we are looking the second down week for the s&p