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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  February 25, 2022 10:00am-11:00am EST

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♪ kailey: it is 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day this friday , february 25. here are the top market stories at this hour. russia is reportedly open to talks with ukraine, but sergei lavrov says that is on the condition of surrender. the eu it's set to freeze putin and lavrov's assets. commodities in the crosshairs. the grains trade faces disruption. looking through it, risk sentiment tries to push through price pressures and geopolitics. europe is playing catch-up. from new york, i'm kailey leinz, with tom mackenzie in london. alix steel and guy johnson are off. welcome to "bloomberg markets."
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happy friday. it has been quite a week, he week that will go down in history, and it is still not over. tom: we've had comments from lawmakers we have been keeping on. the data is breaking as well. just to shift momentarily away from the geopolitics, there's the overlap when it comes to the inflationary impact. coming in at 62.8, that is a solid beat. 62.8 from that michigan sentiment survey. kailey: a lot of economic data this morning and this afternoon, and that includes housing data. when you look at pending home sales for january, they fell
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9.1% from the previous year, which was expected to be up by about 0.2%, so a little bit of softness starting to come through in the housing market, which in the u.s. has been persistently quite strong. i wonder how much the impact of higher mortgage rates has something to do with that. tom: that is certainly a discussion point in the u.k., where the bank of england is considering hiking a third time. let's get back to the geopolitics and the invasion of ukraine. day two of that invasion. there's a report that vladimir putin is open to talks. henry meyer kicks off our coverage. what do we know about these talks? henry: the offer emerged today, with president putin's spokesman , who confirmed russia is ready to discuss the neutrality of
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ukraine. this came after some comments made by president zelensky of ukraine earlier in the day, in which he said he would not be afraid to discuss this. this is the first indication of any kind of diplomatic effort, but i would say that the russians have made it abundantly clear that they are willing to discuss the surrender of zelensky's government and ukraine. so it is unclear what response will be in kyiv. kailey: thank you so much to bloomberg's henry meyer in moscow. the european union coming out with its own package of sanctions on russia. bloomberg's maria tadeo is in brussels with that story. we understand the eu was getting ready to freeze the assets of both putin and lavrov. maria: yes, and this is an ongoing situation. we are waiting for official confirmation, but sources not telling us both vladimir putin
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and sergei lavrov would be included in this package. a lot of this, and reality, you have to look at the real damage it will do. we know in terms of the actual damage it does, for vladimir putin it is very difficult to figure out how many assets he actually owns and what kind of money he has. when you look at what vladimir putin officially says he owns, it is three cars and an apartment. that is it. but ultimately, these sanctions -- he will say that these sanctions are unfair and baseless. the point is to send a message that the european union is willing to go after everyone in the russian government, from the president to his very close senior advisors and a very wealthy group of people that have surrounded criminal politics for years -- surrounded kremlin politics for years. this is a move that has a symbolic nature.
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we know there has been very heavy fighting over the past 24 hours around the ukrainian capital. tom: brussels correspondent maria tadeo the latest on those plans to cut off blood, boudin -- cut off vladimir putin. let's go to bloomberg's annmarie hordern, who is at the state department. what are we hearing? annmarie: we had the sanctions package yesterday that goes pretty heavy on russia. sberbank and vtb aretwo massive -- are two massive ronk shoul -- massive russian financial institutions. they are hitting the stability of the financial sector, but one area of the russian economy which is the lifeblood of the
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economy and why president putin is able to have or than $600 billion in reserves is the oil and gas market. we just spoke to the special envoy for global energy security, and he said if they were to put sanctions on russian oil and gas, that would mean you are taking supply off the market at a massive price hike. what he said was president putin would still be able to sell some of that, probably illegally, maybe half at double the price. so putin and the russian economy would still be living off the funds from the oil and gas sector, but every day europeans and americans would be the ones to suffer. kailey: meanwhile, the white house has also been focusing on the vacant seat on the supreme court. we have gotten confirmation that biden has nominative ash has
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nominated judge ketanji brown jackson -- has nominated judge ketanji brown jackson. this is the high court. this obviously has serious judicial consequence. but cultural as well, and president biden fulfilling a promise to nominate a black woman to the court. tom: not changing the weighting in terms of the conservative nature of the supreme court, but in terms of the approval process, the nomination process, she has been nominated, she has to get through the senate, but the fact that she is already a court judge who has gone through part of that that in process means that maybe that will be sped up, and possibly april is the timeframe they are looking at to start that process. the importance absolutely, the domestic buttocks in the u.s., the symbolism, even if it does not change the conservative nature of the supreme court. kailey: one eye on the domestic politics, the other eye on foreign politics. we will talk about the up occasions of the geopolitical
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situation and how you can hedge your bets in the middle of a crisis like this. we will be discussing that with any stiff pond -- with many's despond -- with maneesh deshpande, barclays head of equity derivatives strategy. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ tom: welcome back. an indicator from citigroup's signaling it is time to buy the dip. a note today says only seven of the 18 potential red flags in citi's bear market checklist are waving. let's bring in money stiff pond -- bring in maneesh deshpande, barclays head of equity derivatives strategy. i want to start with the european markets before we start to go to hedging. is there a complacency in these markets? does that sound rational to you at this point? maneesh: yes, i do think there are clearly still risks ahead, and if things escalate from here , european equities would be
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more vulnerable from this point. you to date, even months to date , when russia tensions have escalated, european markets have not suffered more. so i think there is a bit of complacency here. i think it depends on what further sanctions are put in and what the effect of those sanctions are going to be. but right now we do think that buying options on european equities would be the most cost-effective way of hedging. kailey: where else is it still cheap to hedge? maneesh: across the board, volatility has gone up, so one cheap way to hedge if you don't buy outright options. the interesting thing about european equities is downside options have become very expensive. but we are seeing is, let's say you buy options at a rate of 10%
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, which is probably the pain you would get if things get worse, not more than that. so that is how you are cheapening the hedge, by selling out of the money options. the other indicator we like is buying u.s. options on the oil etf, or oil in general. there's a similar dynamic that the winning options are becoming much more expensive. tom: what are the other options around hedging for these inflationary shocks we are seeing across the system? maneesh: as you know, of course you can get very local and look at things like natural gas products in europe itself, but as far as the center of things, that is the one that is most compelling. another is coal, but that is not as clean a hedge as oil is.
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kailey: given the uncertainties on the monetary policy front, the idea that liquidity is going to be much less abundant on the geopolitical front, a lot of questions there. if the retail trader is not as active, is not driving the volume of bullish call options have seen them driving previously, how does that influence the market, that activity, or lack of it? maneesh: it is interesting. you need to distant was between different kinds of retail, retailers who hedge through their etf's and bejewel funds versus -- and mutual funds versus broader stocks. you to date, the flows into mutual funds -- year to date, the flows into mutual funds have remained quite strong, so despite what the fed was expected to do, flows have really not slowed inflows.
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that is a bit of a contra indicator, so if these uncertainties persist, we could see outflows on that channel which could pressure the market. tom: is there a case to be made for getting more global exposure at this point? i think the likes of mark mobius came on and said to us that china is something of a safe haven at this point, given particularly that the monetary support is coming through from the pboc. is that a region that looks attractive? maneesh: i would respectfully disagree on that front. we are a little worried about china. i think one way to think about this is perhaps there's a floor, but the support that the policy makers are doing are likely to be just enough to stabilize it. there have been three times when
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china has we slated when the credit growth drops. in 2018, they did enough to just support and not crush growth. we think it is going to be a similar measure. so enough to not cause further downside, but not enough to cause massive upside from here. so i think given what is going to happen for the rest of the year and where we are in terms of credit growth, we don't think it is a massive upside kind of scenario. kailey: do your worries about china extend to the broader emerging-market complex? maneesh: i think the other emerging market complex is a little bit different. there's a lot of idiosyncratic things going on in brazil and the rest of the emerging markets. i think the thing that are fixed income colleagues worry about is , broadly speaking, as rates keep going up, that gets more
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expensive and there could be some worries there. but as far as equities are concerned, china is not part of the emerging work it's index. tom: i want to ask emerging markets index -- emerging markets index. tom: u.k. markets have been relatively resilient given the concern about hikes and geopolitics. do you expect that trend to continue? maneesh: u.k. equities, i think you have to be careful because they are not that geared towards the local domestic economy. if you look at central banks in terms of how aggressive they are around the world, the most aggressive -- they are the most aggressive, followed by the boe and the of japan. u.k. companies are much more
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globally exposed and they have a lot of exposure to materials and the energy sector, so that is probably why they have fared well. the energy sector has been doing ok. kailey: we have to leave it there. thanks for taking a quick trip around the world with us for get many just bond -- around the world. maneesh deshpande, thank you. we will take a look at how the ukraine crisis is affecting fund flows. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. i'm ritika gupta. consumer spending rose more than expect it last month. that highlights the resilience of american demand despite a
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surge in coronavirus cases and rising prices. morgan stanley has disclosed that u.s. regulators and prosecutors are investigating various aspects of its block trading business. a filing admitted that the bank itself is under scrutiny. authorities are digging into help bankers and money managers carry out stock transactions big enough to move prices. the owner of bridge airways is joining other european airlines in pretty thing a travel rebound. i-80 expects to turn profitable this spring. the company says bookings are now running 85% of prepend them at levels. iag also owns aer lingu -- owns spain's iberia and aer lingus of ireland. kailey: it has been a volatile week in the markets, with very volatile intraday price action. here to see how it has played out in the world of etf's is bloomberg's to de bry felt --
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katie greifeld. katie: i'm going to take us to the ark innovation etf, cathie wood's biggest fund. it showcases the huge rebound yesterday. this etf is still up 7% over the past two days. if you zoom out, it is a much different picture. looking over the past year, it is all the names you would expect to see as we deal with global central banks tightening and now russia's invasion of ukraine. you have chinese tech followed by the msci, russian etf's, and arkk, some of the biggest losers, even with the rebound we are seeing. tom: there have been some major moves in chinese tech companies listed in hong kong. we have seen losses of up to 4%. it has been a bit more stable today. there's continued concerns about the regulatory environment there, then you have the geopolitics and every thing that flows into it. what is the read across for the rest of the tech space?
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katie: when it comes to u.s. tech, it seems like there is some bottom fishing going on. you can see that in the flows. i want to look at qqq. that tracks the nasdaq 100. if you look on a weekly basis, this has taken about $3.6 billion so far this week, the biggest total so far this year. as you can see, it has really seen some outflows, but it looks like people are willing to maybe try and call the bottom. kailey: we were just talking with money's despond -- with maneesh deshpande of barclays about outflows. what are we seeing? katie: it does not seem as if there's a ton of conviction behind it because if you look at qqq, the short interest is close to the highest level in about a year. if you look in the corporate credit space, ig funds and high-yield funds, open interest
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is at an all-time high, so people are stepping into the market here, but there's definitely a lot of caution. tom: what are the safe haven and hedged etf's that are getting people's attention? we've gone above $1900 an ounce. what are you seeing in terms of safe haven etf's? katie: it is hard to say. a lot of the traditional safe havens have not worked. even with all of the inflation anxiety that we are seeing, you are seeing a lot of money flowing into tips tracking funds. you also seeing a lot of money flowing into senior loan tracking funds that track floating-rate debt and other securities because inflation is clearly top of mind. kailey: we are talking about where investors have been flowing too. we talked about fleeing out of technology a little bit. has any of it surprised you, or is this what we would expect
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largely in a kind of risk off uncertain environment? katie: the depth buying impulse has been a defining characteristic, so the fact that we were not seeing that up until this point was pretty surprising. now, to look at the screen and see money coming back into qqq, this feels a little bit more like what we are use, people trying to time the market and catch that knife. tom: ok, bloomberg's katie greifeld with the latest. about an hour ago, we heard vladimir putin was willing, according to the russian state news agency, to meet for talks in minsk. now we are hearing from the kremlin that in fact, ukraine has not replied to further russian talks offered. that is the line that ukraine has rejected the minsk talks. they want a meeting in warsaw, the capital of poland, according
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to a spokesperson from the kremlin. this according to the kremlin. coming up -- kailey: sorry, i was going to say we heard from sergei lavrov earlier saying that any talks would be contingent upon ukrainian surrender. i wonder how that is factoring into the ukraine government's decision here not to talk with moscow. tom: and so far, zelensky has made a very clear that he and the military will continue to fight on, at least at this point. coming up, the global economy has not recovered yet from dependent shock, and now it faces another one. we will discuss next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ kailey: it has been an hour since the start of u.s. trading.
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bloomberg's kriti gupta is tracking the moves. the thursday session was wild. how is friday shaping up? kriti: it has been choppy. we started off in the green. we dropped into the red, pain -- in the red, paring those initial gains. then you saw this reversal in the market. the s&p 500 now just shy of 1%. what is interesting is the kind of tug-of-war between what is going on with the geopolitical risk as well as dealing with some of that basic technicals. you had a massive selloff yesterday. that volatility means you're going to see a bounce back today. that is what you have seen in the s&p 500. a similar story for the nasdaq 100. the tech heavy stocks really focused in on. remember, yesterday's selloff, they were the ones getting hit the most. today they are actually up the most compared to around the world, not just in the united states, but europe, and even
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against asia. europe really outperforming. that is going to be a natural reaction when you see the selloff we saw yesterday. you are also seeing a tiny bump in yields, just up one basis point on the 10 year, this probably following bpce report that came up higher than estimates. let's talk about stocks because this is really the story. the bear market, especially getting to the nasdaq, it is already trading pretty low. yesterday we got down to a 20% drop from the peak to the trough. now you're seeing it down about 15%, but you're still seeing a lot of pain isolated knows -- isolated in those tech stocks. that inflationary risk is not the only force at play. earnings are as well. i'm going to start off with square, now known as block. this is jack dorsey's company, up a whopping 22%. they came out with pretty strong earnings. jack dorsey laying out the bull case for 2022, how he wants the company to move forward. you can really see investors
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responding pretty positively to that move. you have a summer story in etsy, some roaring sales when it came back to how much of that e-commerce growth of the last two years they were able to hold onto. some strong commentary from analysts and investors, smiling on that stock as well. to the downside, footlocker, saying some of its business with nike is shrinking. they also missed on lower guidance for the full year when it comes to 2022 sales. you see is really getting punished i 33%, and ending on a cyber security company beating earnings, but not by a high enough margin. that is going to be a major theme this earnings season, where you have them either punished or rewarded. that volatility is pretty evident when it comes to these stock moves. tom: kriti gupta, thank you for some of the individual corporate stories. sobering numbers today on rising prices in the u.s. they just continue. the federal reserve's favorite inflation gauge had the largest
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annual gain since 1982. with us now is bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent mckee. what stood out for you? michael: obviously the top line numbers stand out to everybody because they were stronger not only than last month, but stronger-than-expected, and as you put it, they are the highest since margaret thatcher was prime minister in the u.k. and ronald reagan was running the united states. 6.1% for the headline pce number and 5.2% for the core, significantly higher than we were just a couple of months ago. that has raised questions about whether the fed should do 50 basis points 25 basis points. nobody at the fed saying they are going to not raise rates in march because of the russian invasion, but now you've got governor christopher waller pushing back on those who say 25. he said last night if the economy continues to come in hot, including the pce, he would be in favor of 50. st. louis fed president jim
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bullard also interested in 50. so that is to be settled as we get more data between now and the 16th. the data probably aren't going to look good. take a look at this chart. it shows you where gasoline prices are. take a look in the upper left-hand corner. this is the last five years of gasoline prices at this time of year. you can see how much higher they are right now. if prices of oil status hi, we are going to see some real moves in gasoline that will affect people and the economy and put pressure on the fed. the one thing that is in the markets' favor is that oil prices seem to be coming down because they have exempted oil from russian sanctions. that has the markets believing 25 is probably the best case, so we now see in the fed funds futures market that they are pricing in about 1.2 moves. that is below the idea of two
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at this -- of two at this point, even though we are given these high inflation readings. kailey: thank you so much. let's get more on the headwinds the global economy. nick benbrook, wells fargo international economist, joining us now. you have potential exacerbated inflationary pressures on the one hand, concerns about the growth simple occasions they wore in eastern europe on the other. what is a central bank to do? nick: it is a dilemma for central banks, but i think it is still going to be focused on inflation. even if you look back at the last european central bank meeting, they had very high inflation and they sounded a little hawkish. so there is still a big pole between these two convening forces and i thing that is going to be the inflation that will probably be the most
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influential. tom: are we looking potentially at a stagflationary environment in europe? nick: no, i don't think so. it depends how you define stagflation, personally, i defined stagflation as going several years of very high inflation and low growth, 3, 4, 5 years. so probably by this time next year, we will have inflation very close to 2% to 3%. that is reasonable. it is not at target, but it is reasonable. so i don't think we are in a permanently low growth, high-end ampligen environment, and my opinion -- hi inflation environment, in my opinion. certainly i am not a geopolitical expert, and a lot of different paths are possible here. the situation remains similar to how it is today. i suspect that if we don't see
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further escalation in the military tensions between ukraine and russia, i suspect we will see these central banks continue with the rate hike path. i do believe the impact on western economies, even european economies, will be moderate, but i don't think it will be severe for countries like germany, france, the united kingdom. tom: the data out of the u.s. seems to suggest the consumer remains relatively healthy state side. what is the resilience of the consumer in europe, particularly as real wages remain in negative territory? nick: the consumer is looking ok across europe. certainly the high inflation is an issue in the case of the united kingdom. but we had a couple of interesting tidbits out of some of the gdp figures that came out a france and germany today,
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which were showing increases in household disposable incomes. as you point out, a lot of that was eroded i inflation, so we are phenomenal incomes growing, seeing wages growing, and seeing real incomes -- and of course we still see savings from the pandemic. so even with inflation weighing on purchasing power, the fact that you are still getting income growth and you have historically high savings rates, this is enough for the consumer to support recovery. kailey: you mentioned rising wages. i wonder we are expectations for wage growth are and whether that includes a spiral. nick: it depends where you are looking at and which countries you are focusing on. in the case of the united kingdom, certainly we have seen some relatively high wage numbers, so i suspect the bank of england will be more proactive and probably will continue to be more active in terms of raising interest rates. in terms of a spiral, i don't
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know if we go from 4% or 5% to 7% or 10%. i doubt that. but it is already really elevated, and of course i think we have coming from the bank of england encouraging individuals -- which did not go across particularly well. kailey: you could say that. nick: i suspect that we are not going to have significant wage spiral pressures across the euro zone. tom: we are going to be speaking to the european commissioner for the economy shortly, asking him about the fiscal impulse in europe. is there any dry powder at play within the european commission to help support the economy, given the geopolitics of the moment? nick: that is a good question. the way i would phrase that is i don't know if it is dry powder per se, but of course, there is the eu recovery fund and all of the grants from that starting to roll out. i think what i would say at this particular point in time is the
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fiscal grants and the fiscal stimulus coming through, i would argue it is relatively neutral, at least supporting or cushioning what is happening with the economy. doesn't -- that is a little but of contrast to what we are seeing in the united states, for example. we had very significant fiscal stimulus during the pandemic, the heights of the pandemic. in the case of europe, i don't necessarily think there are tailwinds, but i don't believe there's much in the way of headwinds in terms of that fiscal stimulus at this point in time. kailey: we consistently hear from central banks that they will be focused on the data. what data points in particular carry the most weight to you right now? nick: again, looking at it from a european perspective, certainly the inflation numbers are extremely important. in the case of the euro and even in the case of the u.k., the
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base effects don't look good, so we are almost certainly going to see further increases in headline inflation to maybe 5.5% across the euro zone, and even core inflation maybe at 3% as well. i would be definitely looking for upside surprises on inflation. the other thing i am watching extremely closely, and both of these numbers were encouraging, or the purchasing managers pmi surveys. they picked up really strongly in february, showing a recovery, so it will be interesting to see to what extent they would be depressed by some of the geopolitical concerns. but we continue to see improvement from those, and the elevated inflation probably coming up over the course of this year. tom: the importance of continuing to watch the pmi data and not seeing the central banks
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derailed by the geopolitics, at least not at this point. nick ben -- nick bennenbrook of wells fargo, thank you. the word of the past couple of days, volatile, to say the least. we will talk with doug king, ceo of our cma -- of rcma capital. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is "bloomberg markets." coming up, european commissioner for the economy paolo gentiloni. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. i'm ritika gupta. president biden has made his decision on who will replace justice breyer on the supreme court.
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bloomberg has learned it is federal appeals judge ketanji brown jackson. she will be the first black woman to serve on the supreme court. consumer confidence in the u.k. fell this month by the most in on most two years, when coronavirus lockdown restrictions were first announced. the monthly index is closely followed by the bank of england and the treasury. it says how household are worried about rising taxes and inflation. in ukraine -- burst into flames. 10 sailors jumped overboard and were rescued by ukrainian authorities. this came a day after a ship was hit by shell fire in the black sea. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. kailey: thank you. this goes with the story about
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the disruptions we are seeing to some chartered ships in the black sea. supply chain challenges have been made a lot worse. about the only thing that buyers and sellers can count on is uncertainty. we are joined now by doug king, ceo of rcma capital. give me your view of what we have seen play out over the last 48 hours. doug: quite an incredible roller coaster. obviously, the invasion, everybody super uncertain of what that meant, what was going to happen sanction wise, and waiting pretty much throughout the day to wait and see what the reaction would be. later on, we got the reaction from the western governments and the president of the united states, and it looked like energy was not going to be affected. to put that into context, you can understand why. there's 8 million barrels a day of products coming out, nearly
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as saudi arabia produces, so to really impact that would have been a enormous jolt to the markets. 30% of the gas from russia heads into europe, and if that had been stopped or sanctioned, we would have gone up astronomically. so i guess in a way, we got what we got, and the market has react with that -- has reacted with that and made a call that things are not going to be quite as bad as anybody thought, and the markets are pretty much where they started yesterday morning. tom: we are looking at brent, $97 a barrel, $91 for wti. what are we seeing in terms of premiums, and terms of prices? do you have any clarity about where prices go from here, how lengthy it is to the moves of vladimir putin in and around ukraine? doug: obviously there's a lot of
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uncertainty in geopolitics for quite a long time. the buildup on the border has been there for everyone to see. i think the issue is more that oil supplies are extremely scarce. the market is extremely tight. there's huge inverse, where price is stronger now than it is in the future, and cash prizes are extremely strong. opec struggles every three months when they meet. kailey: on that point, given how tight the markets are, give us your read on what the spare capacity is like. can we get these things from elsewhere should there be disruption? doug: if oil is sentient and can't be sold, if you see sanctions in some of the production that has been shut in, if that happened and some of the oil was not able to be moved , it would probably have to be
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shut in, and therefore oil would be very bullish. there's very limited spare capacity in the world. really not a lot at all. you can probably get a bit of scaled growth at these prices. opec will talk that they can produce more, but we don't see it. every time they increase production, they actually don't. so this market is in a very precarious position. there is probably some global demand coming back when we come out of this pandemic finally and get some flights back in the air because jet fuel has been lagging the demand for two years for obvious reasons. tom: i want to move to the soft commodities space because i know you are involved in that as well. where are the pain points around supply chains when it comes to soft commodities? doug: massive exporter, ukraine, wheat particularly. it is around 25% of the global we trade. we saw yesterday the market go
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up as people thought they might have to find alternatives. we have seen it today move back down again for the reasons we discussed. a major one that i think is not really being seen yet is the conventional oil space. -- the vegetable oil space. we may see, and i am already hearing anecdotally, that some of the ports are not loading, so it is more of a disruption now rather than we haven't actually got it. kailey: is there anywhere in the commodities that could be affected that the geopolitical risk premium is mispriced, whether over or under? doug: geopolitical risk is always hard to assess, for the
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reasons we have seen in the last 48 hours. i think it is broader than this. there are structural supply-side issues as we go into this decarbonization and come out of covid, and i just think what is going to happen is as prices rise, you normally get a response. people produce more. that is what commodities are always so cyclical. but this time around, i don't really see it. i think if oil prices go up, i don't think many people are going to do very much. so i think that will be allowed to run unchecked, and you won't get that supply response. i could give you that are given to across a multitude of commodities. that is why this is a supply-side structural bull market that is just getting going. inflation is with us. that is where we sit in our fund and how we invest currently in the marketplace. tom: ok, a structural bull market just getting started. thank you for there's insights,
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ceo of rcma capital. back to the geopolitics. lines crossing from u.s. defense officials who have been briefing reporters on the military attack in ukraine and around kyiv by the forces of russia and vladimir putin saying that several hundred americans have crossed into poland. officials saying russia has used about 1/3 of its forces against ukraine, that russia does not have air dominance over ukraine so far. that we know is a key aim of the russian military. the u.s. think they do not have air dominance over ukraine so far, and also saying that ukraine's military and commander control center remains intact. that from officials on the ground in terms of what is happening on the ground in ukraine. plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloombe
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kailey: geopolitics still front and center for these markets, but the turnaround of thursday leading to continued gains. the s&p 500 up more than 1% get the bond market is steady. oil is lower. wti trading at a $91 handle. bitcoin bit if any -- bitcoin benefiting from the risk on sentiment, up 2.5%, trading at the $39,000 level. tom: no sanctions yet on the energy sector of russia and swift has not been cut off as well. that is benefiting the banks and the energy space as well. here in europe, gains of more than 3%, almost making up for the losses we saw yesterday. we look to close out the week a smidge lower, given the geopolitics. ♪
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tom: it is friday, 25 february. the countdown to the close
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starts right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ tom: the dramatic market moves continue. european stocks gaining more than 3% as we head towards the close. two things that did not happen that have given investors reassurance. one is that russia has not been cut from the swift system. the other is that the sector has not been targeted by sanctions. we had lines crossing there were going to be talks in minsk. now there aren't going to be talks. as for military action around kyiv, it continues. gains of more th

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