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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  March 30, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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>> good morning. we are counting down to the open. >> good evening. the top stories, russia, deploys troops in a course to take the eastern region. u.s. intelligence says vladimir putin is being misled over the war. >> hopes for a de-escalation.
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a warning that markets are moving closer to a black swan event. >> doubt on the deal to keep chinese stocks from moving u.s. listings. u.s. futures higher. this, after the s&p 500 fell for the first time in five sessions, tech leading the declines, losing more than one person. apple halting the longest winning streak since 2003. bloomberg the story they will bring more in house. more on that later. the curve, the 10 year yield, falling below that level. wti losing ground. coming online, pressure. after oil rose for the first time in three sessions as well as those hopes that we might get some breakthrough in the ukraine-russia war, fading throughout the day, but chinese
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adrs, this, news overnight, chinese video streaming platforms facing regulatory scrutiny, oversight, especially crackdowns over tax evasion and content violation. authorities did not name specific firms, but one firm and others are some of those top firms in that sector. not to mention, brace yourself for the china open. after the market closed, we heard from the sec chair gary gensler. tamping down speculation we might see progress on chinese firms being delisted. we were watching producers, because they soared after bloomberg learned president biden is planning to invoke those cold were emergency powers when it comes to encouraging domestic production of critical material for batteries.
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were talking about the defense production act. this is the one president trump used to spur mass production to tackle the pandemic. we know that materials like nickel, lithium, and cobalt have soared because of supply chain disruptions in the ukraine-russia war. >> the conflict continues. fascinating intelligence, the white house says the u.s. has managed to get a hold of, saying indications are vladimir putin is misled by his military leadership in terms of how he was able to prepare and conduct the war in ukraine. the intelligence essentially suggesting his advisers are afraid to tell him the truth. according to the white house, pointing to growing tensions when it comes to the russian leadership and military, in the meantime, of course, as you mentioned earlier, russia saying it will push forward when it comes to completing that takeover of the eastern region. >> they are regrouping forces in
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ukraine to target that region, and this, after moscow pledged to de-escalate operations near the capital p or for more analysis, let's bring in our little news director. what is the latest on the ground right now? >> so what we are hearing and what the white house is telling us is that they are making progress in the region in the east. that is where russian troops are focusing trying to take over, that they have scaled back in the area. we heard yesterday that they were cutting back troops, but they don't seem to be heading towards any cease-fire for withdrawal of troops from the country. instead, refocusing. as you pointed out, there is talk that president vladimir putin feels misled by his troops
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in preparation for conduct of that war. we may be seeing other things like the shifting of troops, given those concerns. >> it is really interesting, this latest intelligence, isn't it? it speaks to the potential levels of tension we are seeing with moscow and we heard president biden spoke with president zelenskyy earlier today. what was pledged, essentially? >> there was almost a one-hour-long conversation between the two presidents. in that conversation, according to the white house, out, as we call it, president biden pledge $500 million of what is being termed direct budgetary aid to ukraine to be used for things like paying bills and paying government salaries, taking care of the budget, making sure that the economy is bolstered. apparently he also went ahead
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and said the u.s. would continue to work around the clock to give them support in whatever shape they need. coming to congress again with other budget request may be on the table, we are hearing, and some lawmakers in congress say that at this point, congress appears to be willing to go with those budget requests for further aid to ukraine. >> the latest on the war in ukraine. top fed officials have committed to more aggressive rate hike path this year to bring down inflation. kathleen hays is here with more. the fed president, an exclusive conversation with bloomberg television, he is on board with 50 basis points. >> if needed. that is the key. look at inflation now. it is hard to believe at some point the fed will not go for
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that 50-basis point rate hike. he did tell bloomberg television earlier that, again, depending on what the economy is signaling , before the may meeting, and when they get here, he is on board with the 50 basis point hike. let's listen. >> i am open to it. we will make the decision when we get to the meeting in may, how strong is the economy still look in terms of its ability to take rate increases, and how high is inflation persisting? i am looking at both of those and we will make our call in may. >> he thinks there is a real chance that rates will need to go above the neutral rate to curb inflation, considered to be 2.4% now, the key rate is around 02.5%. the president of the kansas city fed was at the economic club of new york speaking virtually and said yes, she acknowledges the risk and the need for rate hikes, but she went on to say
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what you see on your screen, "given the state of the economy, with inflation at a 40-your high and the unemployment rate near record lows in the moving expeditiously to a neutral stance of policy is appropriate." and then she said later, and these are prepared remarks, if at that point when they get to the neutral rate, inflation show signs of being elevated, more restrictive policy may be required to meet our policy stability objective and to reinforce an anchoring of inflation expectations. our full remarks. i don't want to make too much of this. this is the consensus, collective on making these decisions. right now, this chart showing you 220 five basis points of rate hikes being priced in this year -- 225 basis points being priced in this year. we know there will be 150 basis point rate hike, it is interesting to see more and more publicly, definitely fed officials get on board with this. >> we had the jobs report ahead
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of the monthly payrolls report later this week. what signal is the labor market sending now to the fed? >> that the labor market so far, no rate hikes, remaining strong, even with risk rising in the economy, certainly because of ukraine, rising commodity prices, rising inflation. it is a tally of private jobs, no government jobs. last month, 400 sunday 5000, march is expected to be four to 55,000, which you can see from the start broadly is they kind of move in the same direction, the u.s. payrolls numbers, and the adp jobs but they don't move in lockstep here right now, that consist for the bloomberg survey for the friday gain in payrolls, month of march, up 490,000, not a stronger six at 78,000 -- 670,000. the fed is to putting in the fact that starting out with a strong economy, strong labor
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market, taking a stand, series of rate hikes, may more aggressive moves to continue on this path. that is with the signal is sending right now. i think that is why the jobs report is not so much up or down it is that the support the fed wants to do and when people step back on friday and go through all the numbers that is what they're trying to assess. >> let's look at our asian markets. this the futures in australia. a rally for the asx. a seven-day rally, putting the benchmark to percent from an all-time high set -- 2% from an all-time high set in august, and it comes on the back of the ramp up in commodities prices. we are seeing in a today of gains as were getting indications of a bump at the start of trading. this is new zealand. down.
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just really snapping two days of gains. watching dollar-yen, strong in recent days, still shy of 1.22 to the u.s. dollar as we continue watch for moves out of the bank of japan to keep that jgb yield in check. taking a look at one of the big market stories when it comes to new zealand, they are planning after that $1.5 billion recapitalization plan was announced, we have seen new zealand 10.5%, the most down since august 2020, resuming training after announcing the plan after shares or placed in a trading halt on monday and this is the airline that has been severely hit by covid, the board has shut down, and this recapitalization is really a part of the lossmaking airline plan to pay for one of the longest border closures we have seen anywhere in this pandemic. let's get over to vonnie quinn
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with first word headlines. >> thanks. good morning. the china central bank boosting confidence, following the worst covid outbreak since the start of the pendant. the latest policy meeting, the pboc said it will be forward looking and will expand its lending program for businesses. economist have cut their growth forecast for china until the lockdowns have ended. russia will lift a shortselling ban on local stocks thursday, removing one of the measures that help to limit market declines after record shutdown. the bank of russia also says equities trading hours will be expanded from the shorten session back to nine hours. restrictions on the trading of securities by foreigners remain in place. opec-plus may exclude oil production estimates provided by the international energy agency following criticism for both sides. sources say ministers will discuss the pros thursday. -- the proposals thursday and it would change the come position of estimates and appears the cartel wants to use the course
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to use to gauge of clients on quotas. the u.k. will withdraw top judges from hong kong's final court of appeals and says keeping them there risks legitimizing oppression. the foreign secretary sees the situation has reached the tipping point with the systematic erosion of liberty and democracy. the u.k. has sent members of its return to china since 1997. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. >> thanks. still ahead, the boj recent moves with the former boj assistant governor. next, wells fargo says markets are latching onto a short-live theme causing significant movements. we will explore them. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are a standard deviation away from a black swan event. we have a major geopolitical shock because of the war, and a broader geopolitical depression. we are in a difficult situation
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with extreme things happening. >> he said the world is moving towards a surprise event. let's bring in the head of global asset allocation strategy at wells fargo investment good black swan event, he can price it in. does he have a point? equity investors feeling too comfortable and sanguine with the risks? >> do believe -- we do believe the risks are definitely rising, and what we are seeing is the u.s. economy is moving through this cycle very rapidly, and we have moved from a steep recovery to what looks to us a lot like a great cycle. this has happened within a couple of years -- great cycle. this has happened within a couple of years. -- great -- great -- great --
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great we could see markets discount later this year. >> you have a preference for u.s. and large-cap over everything else, in tech specifically. do you think the growth rebound has further to run? >> we do. we think we will see earnings coming in as earnings season ramps up in a couple of weeks here, and forecast so far have been stable but we would watch for guidance regarding pricing power, margin pressures.
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the s&p as an index does tend to be higher 12 months into a hiking cycle soap that does give us some indication that maybe -- cycle so that does give us some indication that we could see higher prices, but we remain cautious and like large-cap, mid-cap over higher beta asset classes emerging markets and small-cap, and within our sectors, we like quality as well , information technology, we like that sector for its quality earnings, cash flow, low leverage, and we just upgraded health care, because health care does tend to have defensive characteristics and it tends to outperform when volatility is high. >> talk specifically about asia. the economies have been shielded from broader inflationary pressures. i wonder how exposed they are to higher energy and metal
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prices. >> definitely asia is exposed to those higher energy prices and metal prices than the u.s. the u.s. is more shielded from what is happening in europe. it is really what we are seeing is that those inflationary pressures, commodity prices are hitting hardest at the epicenter of the war, which is europe, and filtering out to asia, filtering out to japan, and so we are looking to underdeveloped markets, asia, and emerging markets asia. >> always good to talk to you. thank you. coming up, apple bringing more financial services in-house in a move that could replace fintech partners. details ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the day ahead for australia not in new zealand. new zealand has announced a 1.5 billion dollar recapitalization. we saw stocks to the downside today. torrential rain sparking a fresh wave of flooding in the area. stocks completed a rally on the back of the budget and an increase in commodities prices. the asx 200 could be in foray fresh, if talks in ukraine progress. >> apple is developing its own payment processing technology and structure for future
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financial products. the iphone maker and meta have provided customer data to hackers who -- what if you learn? >> they're working on a new mix and is in for future financial services. they offer the wallet, tap to pay, merchant acceptance, apple pay, of course, right, apple, apple apple, apple, and buy now pay later, and hardware subscription service for the iphone, a few other things, right, so they want to make the underlying infrastructure of those fintech services in-house. right now they rely on partners. they rely on goldman sachs and others. they are all u.s.-based.
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since apple has not been able to quickly expand services globally, the hope is that they can expand with this platform all apple services very quickly across the world to hit all the users. >> we are hearing a story about meta, about apple getting duped , handing over customer data. how did it happen? >> this is interesting. some hackers, if you, ok, law enforcement has the ability to reach out to apple, google, what have you to get data as part of criminal investigations on customers of those platforms of those companies and they all have portals, and so with this hacking group did is they reached out to those companies pretending to be law enforcement and ask for data on specific customers, and apple and meta did give up some data in those specific circumstances. what could those companies have
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done? they could have done a better job verifying that was actual law enforcement. i'm sure they're putting protections in place, but it is a serious breach that is very scary and quite a creative solution on the part of the hackers, and that is the we hope it doesn't happen again. >> yeah, really, extraordinary, story, for us, let's check the business flash headlines. >>cbc and ag bank reporting gains as they recover from the pandemic, following strong growth from china's other banks. the sector faces renewed covid outbreaks and a fragile real estate market. several executives said that could put pressure on it in 2022. bp has reached out to state owned firms in asia in the middle east as it tries to offload its russian assets. the energy giant has approached
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chinese companies about the sale of its 20% stake, but it is understood the efforts are being hampered by geopolitical difficulties over the ukraine war. winco -- glencoe will continue its long-standing business ties in the country. the company wrapped up a review of shareholdings in two large russian firms and wider trading operations in the country and says it will continue to honor current contractual obligations, while heating sanction requirements. coming up next, we will speak with a person about boj policy and how a weaker yen might affect japanese -- japan's economy. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> ak look at the weakness of the japanese yen. we see that level. were talking about that level, the weakest level at which we would see it during the boj governor's time in power. we have seen barely strength against the yen against the dollar, not surprising that we continue to have the rate differentials at the federal reserve continue to hike rates in the boj continues to
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aggressively ease policy and of course we have seen more efforts just throughout the week in order to cap yields that has put pressure on the yen. that spring in our next guest who says the lord again is an issue of income distribution rather than the macroeconomy and joining us now is that person. he previously served as assistant governor at the boj. it is good to have you back. let's talk about this. it really puts pressure on japanese households with a weak currency, but the boj is convinced that this will help the broader economy. thoughts? >> yes. boj, crucial target, and japan is not immune to pressure now, prices, other commodities can so we will see probably a cross this week, but it is a far cry
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from what the boj talked about was they were talking about strong demand comes so the boj will stand pat and try to look at what other economy prices going across the macro point of view and that boj still speaks to the idea that depreciation of the yen is on hold for the economy and at the same time, the boj has released the assets of the depreciation because it will only benefit exporter and active, globally active companies, but it does harm to the it in general, so there is some provisions on the part of the boj that may be getting better to the distribution axis of the economy, but unfortunately there is a boj and it can do and it is history and the inflation concerns and the boj will ask week to the policy
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and going forward. >> with the prime minister advocating for the new form of capitalism and equality across the economy, how much will the government have to do to offset the weakness of the yen which could hurt households? >> yeah, you are right, actually come we are seeing in the area of economics, the boj, and the inflows of capital, and profit to large companies but at the same time it does spill over to sme's and households, so that is why it is going to do that and try to have a more equal society and good institutions and that would be quite you have that policy for households in the economy, so what at the in the depreciation and going again that idea distribution for the government will come up with
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some kind of measure to mitigate any possible impact of the yen on the particular he probably including some needs for households in sme's for support to mitigate any pain coming from the distribution of the yen at the higher costs. >> ed hearing to yield -- ed hearing to yield curve -- ed hearing -- adhering to your current controls, is this sustainable? >> well, between the united states and japan there is much difference in terms of the economic situation, for example, the federal reserve, the u.s., is running more than three times above the level of the pre-pandemic level of the economy. on the other hand, japan's economy is operating more than three times below the pre-pandemic level, and there is six significant difference now, so there is really a government in a boj aligned to be more
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dynamic rather than inflation, so i think it is what august is going to be the boj to continue to accommodate the market policy and at the same time i talked about the federal reserve will be successful in terms of containing inflation throughout the rest of this year and have that done in gauged. >> the impact of the gynt on the reflation rate psychology -- the impact of the reflation rate on the psychology, could we see japan lapse into stagflation given the data at the moment? >> well, actually, there is some concern from the capital markets and the people with regard to the ability to do that, because we are running a very large, very significant right now, unusual economy by japan's
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economy, and we used to be have much more liquidity but once this started to depreciate then it strengthened the industry and it was significant, but this time around, it may not happen, so we must be a medium-term implication of what we can do right now to the economy which turns out to be a competitive industry and then we tried to more do that and the environmental global economy, so that is actually the medium-term that we have concern, but for the time being, as i mentioned, much more important factor would be a policymaker right now to abstain from the recent recovery from the situation. >> if the boj being more of active in the bond space, buying jgb's consistently, what is the impact on the market mechanics? >> well, i think that is a good
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question, but the relation of the primary priority for the boj is to try to achieve the inflation on a sustainable basis in the so-called curb controls with the measure of the boj in gauging to try to achieve that target, so at the same time, so in some sense, the market is kind of a predicting market fours and the boj reads that and we are seeing the second price of the market, but still the markets are at that level and jgb some possible benefits of emerging market forces going forward. >> always great to have you with us. we appreciate your time. let's take a look at how the treasury markets are performing. we have seen that rebound as we see muted stock movements across the board.
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treasuries mostly hanging on to gains as we saw equities easing lower in the afternoon session. we have seen yields over the past session across the curve, particularly the curve outperforming for a second day in a row now. we are looking at just a little bit more stability when it comes to the treasury market at the moment. , barkan says he is open to raising interest rates by 50 basis points in may, however, he told bloomberg exclusively that we depend on the strength of the u.s. economy at the time. >> i am open to it. we won't make this decision when we get to the meeting and made, how strong is the economy still look in terms of its ability to take rate increases and how high is inflation persistent, so i'm looking at those and we will make the call in may. >> do you agree with economist who say you cannot bring inflation under control until or
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unless you get the rate above neutral? >> i think there is a real chance that is true. two things will happen. some of these pressures, whether geopolitical or pandemic-era, will presumably fade in time and we will get chips and cards at some point, and the second thing that will happen is our rate increases and help that is being, how that is impacting loan markets, will have an impact on expectations and on demand and inflation as well, so we will see how those go, and as we get closer to neutral, we can make the call. >> it is time now for this. the boj purchases may be creating a deal buffer. that is a call from one firm, who says that the 10-year gilts may not pass the .25% level
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again after april, and that is important because it is the start of the new fiscal year and saying the boj likely wants to avoid conducting more unlimited purchases past that point. here in the u.s., don't count on many positive surprises from the upcoming earnings season good that is the view from the chief of u.s. equity strategy at goldman sachs who says the first quarter has been particularly rougher companies given higher rates. the ukraine war in covid. watch out for negative surprises, including some announcements in the next few weeks. coming up next, a look at baidu after it was added to a growing list of companies that make it kick off for u.s. stock exchanges. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> let's look at the ruble. we have seen it closing that gap and reversing all losses since the start of the war. you can see this chart showing it is the best-performing currency in the basket in march, coming after being completely smashed in the last week of february.
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30-day volatility keeps climbing , unsurprising given the ups and downs in the ruble, sitting close to the highest level since the russian financial crisis in the late 1990's. we continue to see volatility given the uncertainty in the continued war in ukraine. let's get you the first word news. >> thank you. the u.s. claims to have intelligence suggesting vladimir putin has and misinformed. according to advisors to the russian president are afraid to tell him the truth about the performance of the military and the effect of sanctions on the economy, and that is creating tensions. tom parkin is open to a 50 basis point rate hike, and thinks rate hikes may have to go above neutral to bring down inflation. >> i am open to it.
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the question and we will make this decision at the meeting in may, how strong is the economy still look in terms of its ability to take rate increases, and how high is inflation persisting? i am looking at those and we will make our decision in may. >> president biden looking to encourage production, as the white house is poised to add batteries and materials to the list of items covered by the defense production act in a move giving companies access to $750 million to fund production. china's trial starts thursday. the person born in china works for a state broadcaster. the australian media reports that court proceedings will start at 9:00 a.m. and prosecutors will argue she supplied state secrets overseas, carrying a life sentence. global news 24 hours a day on
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air and on quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. >> right. baidu and four other firms have been added to a list of companies that could get kicked off exchanges as beijing refuses to allow u.s. access to audits. it comes as gary gensler cast doubt on any deal to avoid delisting. for the latest, let's bring in stephen engle. what do we know about this and the consequences? >> e consequences would be a potential delisting if these companies that end up on this list do not supply three consecutive years of review of their audits, which beijing and hong kong-based companies have refused to do on national security concerns another concerns.
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other jurisdictions have complied with the requirements under the holding foreign companies accountable back, which came into law in 2020, and now the sec taking action, and the latest added are baidu and its former spinoff, as well as another company, an online brokerage platform, another company, a services company, and another company, five companies now being added to the provisional list. they have 15 business days, about april 20, to respond to the concerns the sec has about their inability to provide their audits. they would go on that list, and again, the clock would start ticking about a potential delisting. they have to supply audits over three consecutive years. the earliest they could be delisted would be 2024, but we
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are seeing already the house and senate have passed provisions calling for potentially speeding up that process, so it could be even sooner than that three-your process if they do not comply. gary gensler, the chairman speaking to bloomberg news, he cast doubt on speculation that the u.s. and china behind the scenes have been talking about a deal and chinese leaders are hinting that there could be an agreement, but they have had these conversations, but he goes on to say it is up to the chinese authorities and it could be frankly a hard set of choices for them. he goes on to say that he essentially underscored that u.s. law gives little room for compromise and goes on to say if we are in the same place two years from now, many companies would be suspended.
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that is where we stand now and it will be a tense couple of weeks for all those companies and the potential response the sec having added those companies to the list. >> we are expecting china pmi numbers in a few hours. the spread of covid and lockdown measures likely to push it into contraction. our coat anchor has a preview. that 5.5% growth target is looking shaky. what are we expecting? >> looking ambitious, as some economists say. the numbers for march manufacturing, 49.8 for manufacturing, the estimate, snapping a fourth month of expansion, and nonmanufacturing 50.3, still expansion territory, but a slow down given the lockdowns in china, and perhaps the biggest factor in what is
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leading to this hurting activity is shenzhen and the week-long lockdown which hit production and supply chains. bloomberg saying it accounts for 2.7% of gdp, and the impact of lockdowns or felt through to other regions in the rest and beyond -- and the rest and beyond. the question is will it continue to be that if consumption continues to suffer amid the covid measures. take a look at the data. it seems unlikely. limited now peered south korea. the first 20 days. export growth of 10.1%. that has eased from the past. now the lowest since january 2021. >> china's megabanks continue to report earnings, but challenges are mounting. >> right.
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we continue to see those banks gains for 2021, so it is a recovery gear with china emerging out of covid then, but now 2020 two is looking like a different picture and you take a look at what we have been seen so far and endlessly what we saw, it might have been a low base. challenges are rising in the industry is dealing with the debt crisis that is rippling through the property market in the domestic demand picture is going to be a passive call given the covid measures we have seen. shanghai under a lockdown now. and also the potential fallout from russia and the ukraine war, another wildcard, some industry leaders have cited, in fact, last week, you heard from the president of one bank saying it faces the most challenging year in his 30-year tenure in the banking industry, so there will definitely be pressure in these
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earnings for 2022, and those banks looking ahead, profit growth could be in the single digits, 5% to 6%, and when it comes to bank earnings for china , it looks like it peaked last year. >> coming up, air new zealand slumps after announcing a $1.5 billion recapitalization to recover losses from the pandemic. more on that ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> downside, air new zealand, shares, look, lowest since may 2020, in fact, the biggest since march 2020, down, 11%, at this point, after the airline announced $1.5 billion recapitalization to recover from the pandemic. we have more now. air new zealand continuing to suffer from what has been one of the longest border closures in the world. >> yes. some parts to this recapitalization, in the form of a $280 million loan from the government. the government is the majority owner of air new zealand. there will be a new share offering. the government will buy half of
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that new share offering to retain its majority stake. the other half will be offered to existing air new zealand shareholders at a rate of two shares for everyone they hold, and the price would be half of what tuesday's close was from generous offer to existing shareholders, but the ceo acknowledges the troubling times the airline had during the pandemic. air new zealand continues to be negatively impacted and it will take time to recover. >> will it be enough? >> as mentioned, this is one of the airlines hit hardest by the pandemic as new zealand has some of the toughest border restrictions in the world. borders have not fully reopen. air new zealand, two thirds of its revenue come from international travel. that collapsed overnight. the airline saying passenger
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numbers and flights dropped, and in response, they cut the workforce by a third. in terms of the future, there will be a phased reopening, starting from next month, but the road ahead to recovery will be long. new zealand -- air new zealand foreshadowing a loss of $800 million. >> here is a check of the business flash headlines. china southern airlines expected to expand 737 max jetliners by 39 aircraft, after a grounding. the state owned airline will take additional of 103 of the airplanes through the end of 2024. the expanded tally will be a relief to investors as that continues. china eastern reported a wider than annual loss and is evaluating the impact of the deadly crash.
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the airline posted a loss of $1.9 billion last year, blaming the pandemic and high fuel prices. that is it. they break asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> morning. we are counting down to the open. >> welcome. top stories. the u.s. claims vladimir putin fuels misled by russian military leaders over the war in ukraine and the impact on economic sanctions. >> talks set to weigh on trading sentiment in asia.


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