tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg April 7, 2022 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
raising rates as much as 300 basis points this year. and that aggressive tightening plan is set to weigh on trading sentiment in asia. investors eyeing china's covid lockdowns. haidi: we do have trade numbers out of korea. crossing the bloomberg terminal. trade rising four points, billions being added. the current account widens to $6.4 billion. we are of course continuing to watch the impact of the war in ukraine as well as some of these ongoing supply chain disruptions when it comes to trade flow in asia. we are seeing when it comes to the expectations side, the balance of payments, the current account balance widening. a good balance there also accelerating from the previous month. shery: and we have breaking news out of peru right now. we are seeing their central bank rate decision raising the key
rate to four and a half percent by 50 basis points from or percent. not surprising given we have inflation at the fastest since 1998. in fact for the month of march, it topped 6.8% year on year. a copy gated the picture for peru right now and -- it complicate in the picture. and for the central bank governor, the fact that we continue to see chaos. we are seeing protests in lima, peru. protesting the rise of costs for fuel and fertilizers. we have seen at government lowering taxes and raising subsidies, but of course, this continues to be a mixed economic picture for the country. so, the central bank now raising the key rate to four and a half percent as you can see, those live pictures of the protest happening in lima, peru, right now. take a look at the markets right now, u.s. futures not doing much , but this after a soft bid rebound in a new york session.
a little bit of stabilization after traders were able to weigh the comments from yesterday's fed minutes, but at the same time, we have more fed commentary and traders were trying to digest where that was going. nasdaq futures also unchanged, but we are watching the treasury space after we saw the 10 year yield and 30 year yield rising to the highest level since 2019. right now, in the asian sessions, we are seeing crude rebounding, but it fell below that $100 level. of course, we continue to have a very strong dollar which gained for a sixth consecutive session, not to mention strategic crude release which is weighing on prices. haidi: yeah, and that strong dollar is why we are seeing some of these great performers and commodity linked currencies like the aussie dollar and the kiwi dollar seeing weakness. that strong dollar story pushing the aussie dollar under 75 u.s. cents, but we did also see pressure coming off of yields in
australia and new zealand as well. the three year and 10 year bond yield in australia falling by basis points. sydney, futures are looking positive as we get into the start of trading in just about one hour's time. we will start have a percent and reversing both two days of gains there appeared we are seeing dollar yen holding pretty steady, but over 125 now. that dollar strength has created more potential for weakness after we have seen that pair really trade in quite a ranged balance matter. haidi: fed officials are in we're agreement about the urgency of taking steps immediately to fight inflation. remarks from the feds thank president said that they are not unanimous on how fast, how high the hikes need to go. bloomberg's level economic and policy editor kathleen hays is here with more. the devil is in the details. kathleen: well, they certainly are, because again, they know they have got an inflation problem.
in st. louis, they said we are behind the curve. if you ask any fed official, they will probably say that. the question is how aggressive you want to be with uncertainty about ukraine. people are worried about a recession, but jim oler who has been one of the leaders, he has been pushing for faster rate hikes, talk about 50 basis point hikes long before many people on the open market committee. he said today in answer to reporters, the fed has to move for -- forthrightly to get to the right level to deal with getting inflation down. and you can see that with him calling for getting the key rate , just 3% to three and a quarter percent, by the end of this year, that is what? maybe eight months? he is way above wall street consensus crude wall street consensus is for 225 basis points of rate hikes this era, so you succeeding some of what we thought were more hawkish calls. from big of the -- big wall street banks and others.
he says it is clear that we need to get the policy rate higher and sooner. on a panel today, charlie evans from the chicago fed was talk about this question about what the fed needs to do. they backed getting to neutral but remember, the median estimate of neutral is 2.4. it is not at three or higher. and they both said at the same time, we have to monitor the impact on growth and inflation. let's listen to something that he said. >> i think it's really important that we move our policy closer to a neutral position. but i think we need to do it in a measured way. kathleen: a measured matter, watching the economy. charles evans from the chicago fed saying we know their forces are here, but we know supply chain healing, there's a lot of things going on that may help inflation get a little bit lower. we don't want to hurt the strong
labor market. if they make it to neutral and find out it's not far from where we need to go. he does not see us getting to neutral until the end of the year, maybe next year, so it is clear that there is a debate within the fed about the speed, timing, those jobless claims, a 50 year low. in the last week of april, this is a tight labor market, strong economy, it can stand up to rate hikes and we have to get inflation down. we have to be more aggressive. shery: we are also seeing debate at the european. apparently, they are split. kathleen: we got the minutes from the march meeting and what everyone must talk about going into the minutes is that at the last meeting, christine lagarde was tipping towards yes, a more hawkish you than people expected. there could be rate hikes this year etc. and what we are seeing from the minute is that the hawks are much more worried
about the inflation pressures and you can see seven a half percent year-over-year, nearly four times the 2% target. they think that inflation increase is spreading out, they are getting entrenched, they have to move. ukraine were creating uncertainty. hawks think we can get a hike by june or they are pushing for that. some think that it will be in september, but that the ecb shares might start with a 50 basis point hike to get quickly from -50 basis points to zero. shery: kathleen hays are global economics and policy editor. nato and europe officials are warning the war in ukraine may last for weeks or even years. western nations continue to step up sanctions on moscow, with the eu agreeing to ban coal imports from russia. let's bring in our political news director jodi schneider. what are the implications of this morning? jodi: think it is an important one -- warning to these countries and basically, what the u.s. and nato countries are saying is we do not know how
long this is going to go. they said this could go weeks, it's already been a two month were approximately. or it could go years. as russia changes its strategy, as we have already seen. they were going after kyiv in the capital. and now they appear to be in the donbass region. so it is really unclear how long this will last and that means what more can they do in terms of sanctions? because sony things have already been exhausted. this morning comes as the ukrainian foreign minister was pleading for emergency assistance, saying that if they do not get emergency military assistant from other countries, they may not be able to do -- it may be too late at some point to make a real stand against russia in this war. haidi: tell us about the u.n. action on russia. which countries abstained? kathleen: yeah, so we had today a very important vote. -- jodi. the first vote since 2011, where the u.n. general assembly voted
to suspend russia from the human rights council. this had not been done since could alfie and libya where offended in 2011. at the same time, we had 93 countries voting, 58 of stanchions, including countries that the u.s. does a lot of business with, like india, like thailand, like brazil. these countries said they wanted to have independent investigations of the alleged atrocities before they would vote for them to sanction. haidi: global news director jodi schneider. su keenan has the first word headlines. su: we start with pakistan's court that rejected the no-confidence motion against the prime minister. the vote will not be held on saturday. that will essentially halt the former stars plans to hold the
new election. as the clinical chaos as clots, -- escalates, the central bank raised rates. an emergency meeting, the key rate is at 12.25%. shanghai meanwhile is transforming conference centers and conscripting neighboring provinces to create facilities for hundreds of thousands of people. this as the city goes through a second week of lockdowns. nearly 150,000 people have been identified as contact and put in isolation. nearly 100,000 are being closely monitored amid a record number of covid cases. to tel aviv now, which has reported another shooting. marking the fourth such attack on an israeli city in two weeks. hospital and emergency officials say two people were killed and several were wounded in the incident on thursday evening. concern has been high that violence could escalate. this as the holy month of ramadan, jews prepare for passover and christians for easter.
ketanji brown jackson has been confirmed to the u.s. supreme court, making history as the first black female joining its ranks. jackson is a harvard law school graduate and former public defender who the senate confirmed last year to the powerful u.s. court of appeals in the d.c. circuit. she will step up when stephen breyer retires in july. global news, 24 hours a day. on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead a former star , joins us to talk about equality or the lack of it in the halls of power. the yield curve inversion should show caution but does not signal recession. we will discuss more. this is bloomberg. ♪
basis points in may. >> more than one is in fact possible. >> the market is welcoming these hikes. >> may 4 meeting. >> and the need to start cutting down. >> certainly not an easy position for the fed. >> they are trying to keep this forward guidance here. >> trying to re-anchor inflation expectations and trying so hard to get a soft landing and retain inflation cut ability. >> the job of orchestrating a soft landing is going to be difficult. shery: some guests on bloomberg tv. take a look at we continue to see that global bond ground right now, the tenure at the highest since 2017, the kiwi 10 year yield at the highest since 2016. already, we've seen in the new york session, the 10 year yield of treasuries, the 30 year yield as well rising to the highest since between 19. let's discuss what this means with stephen, managing director
or -- portfolio manager for asia. it's good to have you with us because we see it yields rising. today, the yield curve in treasuries were steepening a little bit but we have seen several inversions already. what is all of his you? stephen: well, i think first of all at the interesting thing is the futures market are pricing in a rapid rate rise. and within the next 18 months, that hasn irmed by many of the fed speakers over the last few days. but after that developed in the next 18 months, it is followed by race cuts -- rate cuts. there has been a lot of volatility and a high degree of uncertainty. so the fed certainly has changed from focusing on growth with all of the programs that they have thrown out around march of 2020, to now prioritizing inflation containment. and i would say what we are looking at here is just
underweight and duration and because of the flattening that you mentioned, we have moved some of those underweight into the long and, increasingly. and it is also interesting to note the varying countries around aipac in their own inflation path which would put pressure and the resulting central-bank function. so markets like australia, for example, is moving pretty close with the trajectory of the u.s. fed, may be delayed by three months or so. for japan, things seem to be intact in terms of control. and not a whole lot is really expected, but inflation is creeping up over there. china on the other hand is pursuing rate cuts potentially. we are hearing more from the state cancel council over the course of this weekend on some measures they will be able to release. haidi: maintaining slight over
weight when it comes to china's property sector. stephen: on the china property sector for march, there has been a roller coaster month. there has been a disappointing earnings, some of the redemption by weaker names did not really quite happen. there has been extension and other negotiated exchange happening in that sector. but we are maintaining slightly overweight in the stronger balance sheet cohort. we think there are a number of survivors in that. if the market pricing has been too pessimistic with recovery value also assumed to be minimal. we have seen a policymaker also coming out to support -- really supportive policy to foster healthier sector development. the markets, this is a slow process and piecemeal, but certainly more happening than
before. this is that a city level for fisk it that fiscal market removal of restrictions, such as purchase restriction are cutting down of mortgage rates. but there are also other bonds, which is happening in terms of state owned enterprise as i mentioned in companies, getting more involved in exploring projects. so things are happening, but it is still slow and the market has rebounded since the middle of march. but we expect it not to be a straight line going back up. haidi: we are also hearing from certain media calls for a triple are cut to come from china and the second quarter. without broad-based easing measure encourage you to deploy more capital towards areas like high-yield capital? stephen: i think that one, we remain quite cautious and we want to maintain more flexibility across the portfolio. it's relatively high, the forecast level, at the moment.
there are a lot of disruptions around the world. we are worried about nonlinear moves. there are inflation pressures, there are covid related disruptions in china, so all in all, we operate with an elevated threshold as credit spread connotation needs to be higher given volatility and fed actions ahead. haidi: what is your best exposure when it comes to the strength of that we've seen in commodity is currency with the aussie dollar? stephen: those have been in our portfolio. the theme is to overweight commodity currencies. the australian dollar and the quibi one, but also the krona, and in this region funded by the u.s. dollar and the chinese yuan. we think the u.s. dollar tends to underperform. after the first hike began on the chinese, we think with the
disruption, there should be a downgrade of growth ahead. the currency has been strengthening and arguably on the expensive side, on many valuation models and we think the trades might also be peaking with some of those kind of logistic issues. and also after the u.s. and other countries open up service consumption, picking up the expense of goods consumption. haidi: great to having you with us. stephen chang managing director and portfolio manager for asia. you can get all the stories you need to get your day going on daybreak. terminal subscribers can get those. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: we are counting down to the start of trading in tokyo and seoul. here are some of the stories we're watching today. in korea a 100 billion loan 10 year bond deal is off. authorities will provide an update on the covid situation later as officials say they will and pandemic era restrictions in phases. finance minister is holding a meeting on economic securities. over in japan, inflation expectations have climbed to the highest level in more than 13 years. the chief economist of the live research institute is telling prime minister uchida to fight price increases by cutting taxes. japan will release 15 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserve. in accord needed effort with the iea to mitigate the impact of surging energy prices. haidi: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. toshiba has extended his plan to's but the company into.
to establish a central committee for investors to find a path forward. the committee will be comprised of independent outside directors. to help management negotiate possible deals. tencent is shutting down its game streaming service more than a year after authorities created efforts to create chinese equivalent of switch to a merger. they will terminate services on june 7. tencent has proposed a culmination of two streaming startups in 2020. regulators rejected a deal. hb surged to a record on thursday after berkshire hathaway urges more than $4 billion worth of stocks. warren buffett said to have bought millions of shares. he bought the stock in multiple transactions. berkshire has been expanding its $350 billion equity for olio. we have an alert on the bloomberg. we are hearing from the china securities journal that they see
it likely that a triple are cut will take place in the second quarter. remember, this is a high-profile newspaper in china. they are saying that china is likely to cut back reserve requirements in order to stabilize the economy. they are expected to accelerate approval of local government special bond nations quota to prop up investment according to this paper. of course we have seen more and more signals that this was going to happen in terms of the loosening of monetary policy, for example, the state council, which is china's cabinet, earlier this week pledged to use monetary tools at an appropriate time in order to boost the economy. coming up next, chinese leaders face increasing discontent as they stick to a covid zero strategy. we have more on that lockdown in shanghai ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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su keenan: this is daybreak: asia. i'm su keenan with the first word headlines. banning coal imports from russia in a concerted effort with the u.s.. the sanctions package bands most russian crops and ships from entering the eu. penalties on the defense entities and banks, as well as strength and export controls. sources from bloomberg say eu members have arranged discussions on a new round of sanctions which could include curbs on oil. the un's general assembly meanwhile has voted to suspend
russia from its human rights council over its conduct in ukraine. it's backed by 93 nations and opposed by 24. another 58 countries abstained from voting. brazil, thailand, india and mexico were among those saying they wanted independent investigations into alleged atrocities. st. louis fed president james bullard is factoring -- backing a 50 basis points hike in may. he says the fed may be behind the curve and he favors raising rates sharply to between three and a quarter percent. in the second half of the year. the fomc raised its benchmark by 25 basis points. fuller was the lone dissenter favoring a half-point increase. u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen it says the digital dollar would take years to develop as a country decides to proceed with one. regulators are engaged in a six-month review and coming up with recommendations on linked digital assets including a digital version of the u.s.
dollar currency. the initiative was launched during executive order by president biden. global news, 24 hours a day. on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. shery: chinese president xi jinping is facing one of his biggest challenges since taking office. growing public frustration over shortages of essentials. as the covid lockdown continues, let's bring our chief north asian correspondent, stephen engle's. so how far is he going to be able to contain this outbreak? how close is it to breaking the people? stephen: well, we all know anybody who has been inside china knows that shanghai marches to the beat of a different drum a little bit. it is still under the commonest party, of course. it has to abide, but they do things differently in shanghai and like hong kong, the first couple of years of the pandemic, they were pretty much unscathed. and they did not face lockdowns.
and now that they have been facing more than one week, a couple of weeks of lockdowns with no end in sight, beyond the prescribed lockdown, with also every infection going into isolation, we had the latest tally, 19,900 plus on wednesday. we will get the thursday numbers coming up shortly this morning. but in addition to all of the new infections going into isolation, you have more than 150,000 more close contacts that are been put into isolation, regardless of the symptoms that they have. people with no symptoms and people with symptoms are going into isolation and everyone else, the 29 million or so residents, are locked in their homes with no end in sight. so there is growing frustration and the people that we have spoken to who were in isolation or in their homes, i should say, in shanghai, say people have been chanting outside their windows, slogans that the communist party does not like to hear. we want our freedom, but even
more basic needs, we want to eat. the communist party is taking some heat. we have already heard that at least one airport, as well as hospital officials, senior officials, party members, these two gentlemen have been fired for not adequately implementing covid restrictions. and then as well, we have the threat, if you will, that this kind of discontent in china's most cosmopolitan, most international city, shanghai, could spread to other cities, who are already in lockdown. chiefly up in the northeast, they have been in lockdown for nearly a month now. far less than shanghai and shanghai is growing frustrated. shery: what about the ports? i mean, that is where all of the goods passed through, whether it is towards shanghai or just outside of shanghai. stephen: well, the shanghai area, including the providence, they have two of the three biggest ports in the world.
singapore being in between them. and what is happening is you have this lockdown in shanghai and the trucks cannot get in to get the goods out of shanghai ports. you know, china uses the trucking network, you know, they rely on it extremely hard to distribute goods from the ports. from the coast. so there is a shortage of truckers, a shortage of trucks, and that is having a chain reaction affect out to the sea, where ships are starting to stack up, if you will. not literally, but figuratively. in fact, i will give it this last quote. ocean network expresses the shipping company it estimates congestion at chinese ports is gridlock in about 10% of the global container ship fleet right now. it could get worse of the lockdown continues. shery: our chief north asian correspondent stephen engle's. area management says the analysis in china and the asian-pacific region way -- may outperform.
investors think the u.s. remains the best backdrop for investors. ceo michael spoke to bloomberg at the wealth summit in new york. >> the u.s. markets writ large across what we do will generally outperform. i think particularly given where the world is today, just capturing the next 12 to 24 months of exposure to the u.s. markets. versus china, as an example, will help you outperform. when i looked around the globe at the things that we can invest in, one of the highest risk-adjusted returns i had seen out is investing distress in asia specific and china specifically. there will be spots within those geographies that i think will stand out, but i would agree that the u.s. for a whole bunch of reasons will be the best backdrop. >> what is the mood inside your shop probably about the world? michael: cautious, but probably not as negative as the public markets are feeling.
and i think part of that is if you really peel back and look at what has taken the public equity markets to the current levels and what is going to obviously have us get some of that back is being led by a handful of large tech names with high growth rates and we are changing the discount rates. so by definition, we are going to have to see values correct. we are all going to be dealing with that in our equity portfolio. and to some extent, we are not going into this current cycle with that amount of overshooting on value and discount rates. so i think the private equity markets are going to have an easier time digesting. the reason we feel so good in our shop is like i said, 200 billion of our 300 billion is private credit. and that is all floating rate secured debt. and so, from a positioning standpoint, as rates go up, our portfolio is actually generating higher rates of return.
and, as you asked about the last couple of years, we have been fortunate that part of our transformation has been an acceleration of our fundraising. and so, we are coming into this market with a significant amount of on invested capital available to us to navigate the markets. but i go back to what we are seeing in our portfolios and we have never really seen this type of cycle, where we have demand-side pressure, supply-side pressure and geopolitical overlay, so we almost have to learn as we go here. but some of the demands has to be temporary in the sense that we are still digesting a significant amount of government stimulus and the transformation of the labor market. some of the supply chain challenges we are seeing have to be temporary as well, just given covid issues. in the impact region and some labor issues that we are having here. so, you know, i am cautiously optimistic that we are going to
be able to navigate this. obviously, the fed has a pretty significant job ahead of them, but when you look at what we are seeing in the portfolios, there is a lot of buffer created in terms of balancing health, cas flow growth etc. etc. that gives us a little bit of time to get this right. haidi: ceo michael aaron getting there at the bloomberg wealth summit in new york. shery: coming up next, allegations of harassment in australia's policies have put gender in the spotlight at ahead of the election. joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: in 2019, prime minister scott morrison got the lowest number of female votes in over 30 years. morrison's gender problem has only worsened since then. allegations of harassment and assault against our lament, 100 thousand australians taking to the streets in protest of his treatment of women. to discuss how gender has become so defensive as we await the election date could we are joined by advocate for women natasha. it is such a pleasure to have you with us. we appreciate your time. you enter parliament as the youngest woman in australia in
dutch at the age of 206i should say. that is 27 years ago. since then, any -- and over the course of last year, we had a spot line being shown on some of these issues. -- spotlight being shown. the crux of leadership power and gender in the country. what changed in that time that you were in parliament? what needs to change? natasha: well, clearly there have been some changes in that while they may be the youngest to ever enter parliament and thanks for acknowledging it was a long time ago, there has been an increase in number. but the rate and pace of change has been so slow. you would not believe it, but in australia, we still have -- we don't have parity in our department. we certainly do not have diversity of different australian women reflected in our parliament and we have a culture that, as you say, has been exposed for being a little outdated, archaic, and certainly toxic in some respects, when
you're dealing with allegations of sexual assault, harassment and sexism. but certainly, women in public life and parliament specifically in australia are subject to write ridiculous double standards and stereotypes. and i'm very keen for that to change. shery: how do you appeal to talented young people? talented young women, to be part of the political class, when you take a look at things that have happened to the likes of britney higgins? natasha: well, on the one hand, we have research that tells us that young women in particular -- and my message if you are appealing to them is do not give up on politics because you feel the political system has given up on you. and i feel quite heartened in recent months, just the year or so which was described as a reckoning in terms of gender politics in australian life, that while these stereotypes and harassment and sexism is not new, what is new are younger
people generally, women especially, calling out this bad behavior. challenging it, taking it on. so that is a big difference from my time, where you were completely isolated if you did draw attention to their behavior or certainly culture that is inappropriate. so yes, i think there is some change of course and i am heartened by that. shery: when you talk about culture, are you talking about the culture of politics in australia that is the problem? or how much of the issue is also with a broader australian culture? natasha: that is a really good question, because i think, obviously, leadership comes from top institutions. decision-making institutions including the central parliament. end of gender equality is not embedded in the dna of those institutions, you know, if our leaders, such as our prime minster, are not modeling respectedhat context,
of course that sends a message to the broader community. but i would suggest that actually, there are some institutions in australian life, including corporate australia, including sport, where you are actually seeing much more progress when it comes to diversity and inclusion and certainly gender equality. then perhaps some of those institutions like our parliament. so i think there is a lot of community change and it has to be a population change. i am heartened that some of this is taking place. i just wish it was faster in parliament and the key to that of course is equal and diverse representation. at the moment, when you have about a third of the federal parliament, that is not enough for a country that granted the right to vote in 1902 to most women, excluding indigenous women, unfortunately. the rate of change -- shery: talk about how women are more willing to call out bad behavior. how important will gender equality be in this election?
natasha: fundamental and look, i am not putting the emphasis on women to call it out. obviously, we need men, particularly women with dutchmen with power to be part of the change. gender politics generally in a policy sense but also the focus on women particularly, i will -- i think we'll have an important impact on the selection. we have already seen the coalition, the party in power declining when it comes to women's support. and i am starting to see a bit of an interest, almost a bidding war, for lack of a better term, on women particularly policies that affect women, such as the prevention of violence against women and children. the issue of child care. early education. hopefully paid parental leave. so you are seeing that they have a policy role, but also women's votes are going to matter. there is a rising tide of female independent candidates, which is something about of legal system. haidi: the rise of the independents has been extraordinary going into this
election. you talk about the policies movements. we saw the women's budget announced by the government over the past few days. is that package of policy movement enough to capture the women's votes? natasha: no, i think what it symbolizes is an acknowledgment that there is a problem. and certainly, it's a small step, but while we still define parental leave or childcare as women's business or problem, we do have some fundamental difficulties. i do think both inducements are a small step and i do think the election will be great. any party that does not place that kind of emphasis on the issues affecting women particularly, i think will suffer as a consequence. but it is not just about policy. it is about cultural change and that relies on more women running. and being reflected in those decision-making institutions. the party to get that right i think we'll have an advantage or at least i hope it will. haidi: part of the problem when
it comes to the culture of leadership is not just being about the culture. it's been about the privilege that is sort of provided to white male politicians in particular. in your experience, how to flame -- frame the role of ally ship in terms of getting representation to the very top? natasha: fundamentally important. as i say, this is not women's business, this is everyone's problem trade whether it is the border issue or gender equality or in fact people getting into parliament or other institutions. that means people have to relinquish power. we've learned that from around the world. if you want to ensure equality, some people have to share power or indeed step down. and we keep replacing some of those usually white male middle-class politicians with the same. and that is a pretty conscious bias i think and i am very concerned that we have not seen more politicians who are exiting parliament, ensuring that there
particular seat is going to be filled by someone who is different and diverse. and does not necessarily reflect the same background and experience and indeed privilege that they have. so i'm hoping that will be something we see in greater numbers at the next federal election. shery: leader and founding chair of the committee of illumination on dissemination could think of for your time could we have breaking news out of shanghai. we are seeing daily covid cases have topped 20,000 for the very first time trade we're talking about 21,222 local covid cases for april 7. of course, we continue to see this indefinite, very strict restriction and lockdown in shanghai, which is growing among residents. this is the highest number of covid cases we have seen in china since the outbreak began. perhaps because of more testing, but we do know that those legal
shortlist coming in at 1.6 5 trillion yen. now, this would be the current account surplus at ¥1.6 trillion, which is widening from the previous month of january. the unadjusted surplus number is at ¥1.65 trillion. which is really narrowing from the previous month. this coming at a time when we are also hearing from the japanese trade minister, now speaking in tokyo, saying japan will work toward curbing russian energy dependence. of course, import prices and rising inflation have had an impact on those trade numbers and we are seeing a surplus right now narrowing to ¥1.65 trillion. haidi: the world's oldest monetary policy experiment landed the bank of japan with a vast portfolio that it just cannot quit. let's find out from bloomberg's
school of economics kathleen. the boj adding to etf purchases as a toolkit of negative rates. kathleen conant certainly did and the question is how well as it work? it's a mixed bag depending on what you look at, but let's remind everybody because back in 2013, that is when governor got on board with prime minister, dave launched -- they launched a stimulative policy. that is why they are balling buying these bonds to keep the 10 year bond yield just above zero. some would say it has worked, but the etf, that was revolutionary in a way. and what they did of course was by so many that they now own about the equivalent of 7% -- excuse me, of the 6,000,000,000,000% stock market. so the 80% of japan's etf's overall, but it is a lot.
they were eager to do something. the boj i had to help the economy out of a deflationary trend. deflationary psychology as he calls it and move it onto a growth path. so they started that, they bought etf's. a lot of people were wondering. i think everybody would agree it helped the topics. as a matter of fact, the topics and in 2013, it had about a 51% gain and the nikkei has had the best year since 1972. beyond that though, the economy continued to struggle. the boj struggle to get toward the 2% inflation target that they have never met definitively. and so, in 2016, a doubled etf purchases and for february to march of 2020, in the pandemic, they boosted purchases by 165%. so they are doing everything they can, but they still cannot beat the 2% target.
haidi: stimulus policy there in focus. this is of course as we continue with that policy divergence. bloomberg's global economics and policy editor kathleen hays there. let's take a look at some of the stuff we are watching as trade gets underway in sydney. asia in focus. after the eu halts imports from russia. this is a move targeting moscow's crucial energy revenue. we will be watching new hope trading in australia in just a few minutes time. other stocks that we are watching. profit outlook fell short of analyst expectations. set to buy back about 9.8% of shares up to that amount. and two suspending that plan for the company and shareholders rejected a spinoff. all sales and that continues. lg energy reporting preliminary earnings. despite commodity prices putting
plus we speak exclusively to the singapore tourism board about plans to build back trouble. a chief executive joint is ahead. shery: japan and south korea are higher when it comes to the equity space, tech and industrials leading those gains, we are seeing the japanese again topping 124 level, back to the 2015 low as we hear more about potential sanctions on russia. we are hearing from the finance ministers saying they will swiftly drop additional russian sanctions, that they will be in line with g7 states, end of the trade minister talking about curbing russian energy dependent saying they will eventually phase out russian coal imports and japan will find alternatives. look at the cost be right now getting 0.4 of 1%. weakness on the korean won continue after we have strengthened the previous session given samsung's
better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, we are not seeing that anymore and we are past the 1220 level while the cost be and the nasdaq are up -- kospi and the nasdaq are up. haidi: we are watching those call names in light of further targeting of russian coal supplies. all -- coal a little bit lower at this point. we are seeing the asx bouncing back from two days of decline. the 10 year yield coming under renewed pressure. seeing a bit of a fall in the overnight session, but now we have resumed that moved to 2.96 percent. when it comes to new zealand, up early flat with the kiwi dollar as well as the aussie dollar seeing weakness on the count of
strength we are seeing on the u.s. dollar overnight. when you look at that correlation between commodities and stocks, that relationship is sitting at a decade high as we see commodity prices surge and supporting both asset classes so far this year. taking a look at the u.s. 10 year yield at 2.6% as we see this reignition of this move across the yield curve after a couple of days of resteepening. crude prices continuing to push ir as we look for more developments when it comes to the energy sanctions situation for russia. our next guest says while concerns around stagflation, commodities should protect against risk. let's bring in the equity strategist at goldman sachs.
it can be difficult to get exposure when it comes to energy in asia. what is your preferred way to play commodities and energy as we see that upside? >> i think it would be energy equities, because if you look at the stocks, upstream energy companies pricing anywhere between $65 and $70 on brent oil, much lower than spot prices. we think it will be 125 by the end of the year. energy equities, even though they have rallied, they are still legging the movement in prices, so that means you will have very strong cash flow generation in these companies. within the commodities space our strongest will be in energy in upstream areas. haidi: what are the other ways you will navigate stagflationary
at risk and do you see that as a heightened risk? >> that is right. stagflation word is coming in on almost every single client conversation we are having. we are not forecasting full stagflation but we think what is still heightened risk. we think an environment where inflation goes higher and growth goes lower it tends to be great for equities in general, and we believe commodities are the cleanest play for that. generally energy, metals and mining as well as financials. they tend to do much better in these environments. at the micro level i would say we have created a list of 50 stocks which are beneficiaries
of the stagflationary environment. sensitive financials but also stocks from mid and downstream industries where you have margin stability. that will also be helpful. shery: we know japan, korea, taiwan are very much tech heavy especially when it comes to the hardware side of things or carmaker heavy indices. what do you make of those? >> i think in the near term we have seen disruptions or shortages in the car industry as you mentioned because of lockdowns in china. there has been impact on that. if you look at broader tech in general, i think the impact so far as been quite limited.
they are trying to make sure production is resuming as soon as possible. broadly speaking, they are still quite positive on tech as well as consumer names as well because there is potential for evaluation re-rating. shery: how vulnerable are asian economies, asian markets to the u.s. economy where we continue to see growing concerns of a recession? >> obviously the markets are not isolated. if you go back in history and you look at a temp percent cut correction -- 10% cut correction, every single time asian equities have gone down.
if we have a correction in u.s. markets because of inflationary concerns asia will also come under pressure. if you look at evaluation differentials between the region and u.s., global equities have re-rated. if you look at global equity markets going all the way back to the 1990's, if we take u.s. out of that the asian markets are in the 20th percentile. valuations are lighter here in the region. even though you may see asian markets going down because of concern said the u.s., we think asian markets should still be able to return below the upside based on earnings. haidi: we have seen steepening,
but according to this idea of whether we have seen peak hopelessness -- hawkishness. what does that mean for it investors? will you be changing your positioning as a result of that? >> obviously the rate markets have repriced, and the 10 is repricing. the markets have gotten concerned about that, but because movement in the rates has been quite swift and we are seeing more than two standard -- two moves of standard deviation. if you go back in history, every time you have more than eight two at deviation move within a month that has been difficult for markets. relating to stagflation, we do
not think it is a strong signal for reflation because in a high inflation environment that [indiscernible] tends much more frequently, so you need a much deeper into version -- it aversion. we do see slightly elevated probability of recession within the next four months, so based on forecasts we are expecting 35% in the u.s. in two years, which is still higher but that is not our base case because we think balance sheets are still strong. shery: it was good having you on, a pack equity strategist at goldman sachs. >> the eu is banning coal imports from russia, the concerted action with the u.s., sanctions package also bans most
russian trucks and ships from entering the eu and strengthens export control. sources tell bloomberg a you members have agreed to start discussions on a new round of this -- sanctions. the court is protected parliamentary ruling to cancels a no-confidence vote against the prime minister. the boat will be held on saturday, tens plans to hold a new election. pakistan's central bank raised rates by 250 basis points in an emergency meeting. the key rate is that 12.25%. to poland, the country has raised interest rates to a 13 year high amid surging inflation that has triggered a mess unrest. the central bank lifted its key rate half of one percentage point for its ninth straight night.
highway blockades have disrupted food supplies while the government has lifted the minimum wage to help with rising costs. janet yellen says a digital dollar would take years to develop if the country decides to proceed with one. regulators are engaged in a six month review negation coming up with recommendations, including a digital version of the u.s. sovereign currency. it was launched in an executive order. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. haidi: take a look at some of the movers we see in the early part of the session, take a look as nickel in particular rising a percent after announcing the midterm plan and share buyback as well, the biggest gain we have seen in eight months and
trading volumes five times the average. also watching asian coal names up after the european union agreed to ban coal from russia. that contributes to the extreme upside we are seeing for commodities demand out of australia. seven and i holdings -- they will not be spinning off their gender. their watching toshiba, quite a bit of gain after shareholders rejected the split proposal. shery: still ahead, we speak exclusively to the singapore tourism board on the evening of travel restrictions and a package set aside for the country's tourism sector. the european union has agreed to ban coal imports from russia. we have the latest.
>> be prepared for the long haul, this war met last for weeks but also months and possibly years. shery: they nato secretary-general there, take a look at the futures rating in europe, a bit of a mix but positive sentiment given that we are seeing this rebound in asian stocks. perhaps one thing helping his --
is energy stocks are gaining ground. energy shares led european stocks down and given the fall in oil prices tech stocks have weighed on stocks, the fed becoming more hawkish and yields continuing to rise. haidi: the u.n. general assembly is focused on russia over its conduct in ukraine. unlike previous condemnations, this proposal gathered dozens of abstentions. our international governor -- government reporter joins us now. why did the support decline compared to previous condemnations? >> i think there is still a high level of rage at civilian casualties and the potential for war crimes, but there is
hesitation while investigations are going on. many countries are saying they would like to investigate this and see this through, and there are plenty of countries who wonder if that could happen to them, saudi arabia or cuba who have been involved in human rights violations do not want to jump the gun quickly in terms of kicking out a country from a u.n. body. shery: how much is that weakening the global campaign against russia? >> that is a good question. what you are seeing is the west has been surprisingly united, more than people expected, but what you are also seeing, and maybe this is more understated and less understood is there is a large chunk of the world not willing to punish russia extract
fiscally -- as drastically as the u.s. and europe. look at china. they are talking about 40% of the global population, so you were talking about two huge markets demanding russian oil and gas. this is keeping russia's economy running for now. shery: our international government reporter there. we are seeing -- on russia and japan drawing up additional penalties on russia with the saying tokyo is working on curbing energy reliance on a moscow. our government reporter in tokyo joins us with more on this. not right -- reall an outright ban. >> that is right, japan has been reasonably clear that it wants
to stand firm with europe and the u.s. on russia sanctions, but when it comes to energy, it will be a lot more reluctant. we have seen headlines out this morning about restrictions on coal, and we had the trade minister, and say he is looking at ways of curbing imports of aggression coal and eventually wants to get to a point where japan is not reliant on it, but japan is the third largest coal importer in the world. it got 11% of its goal -- coal for russia. it is a significant chunk of what japan uses. we are seeing high energy prices here and around the world, so there is reluctance to go out on intermediate ban. haidi: there was also a lot of reluctance when it comes to lng
and the joint project there. >> the government has been clear they will not force japanese companies to abandon those projects. there are supposed to be new sanctions coming in which will be announced by prime minister kishida tonight saying extra sanctions on banks come up sanctions on individuals, and japan has stepped up and has done most of the sanctions done by the eu and u.s. so far. as it has been pointed out a lot of the money going into russia and funding the work comes from its energy exports. the real question is how far are countries prepared to go on that. haidi: isabel reynolds with the latest. we look at the political instability in pakistan, the $80
haidi: -- shery: pakistan's supreme court has overturned plans to hold an election. the move could bring the opposition to power within days. let's bring in bloomberg's chief asian correspondent. what is the reason behind this ruling and what does it mean for pakistan? >> it is absolute political uncertainty, it depends on how the vote will go on saturday, but for the economy it will delay the release of financing.
we note pakistan's currency is falling, for it exchange reserves are in decline, inflation is accelerating. the central bank hiked by 250 basis points, the biggest move since 1996, so this political certainty -- uncertainty is feeding into the ongoing crisis on the ground. a lot will ride on how this confidence vote goes and that will dictate where the financing program goes with the imf in the near term too. haidi: maybe a bit of an understatement in terms of what has happened in sri lanka, but there is a new debt panel being established. what does that tell us? >> exactly, our colleagues have been documenting what is happening on the ground in terms
of protest, but the financing side comes down to sri lanka has to pay its debt. they have appointed a panel of experts that includes luminaries and academics and they will advise on the fiscal side of things and the debt side of things. other external creditors for sri lanka, they have this political crisis going on on the ground and they have to manage external debt. this is happening when sri lanka's foreign exchange like pakistan is in decline, currency is in decline, and sri lanka as the fastest pace of inflation in asia. it has all of the hallmarks of an emerging crisis. like pakistan, until there is
political certainty in sri lanka one would assume the likes of the imf and other external lenders will keep the brakes on releasing. haidi: bloomberg's chief asian correspondent there. -- is taken full control over an australian oil refinery removing access to a key source of raw material for the aluminum giant. it has been unable to access its share of production since last month when australia banned aluminum exports to russia. penguin e-sports will terminate all services on june 7. coming up next, the latest on
haidi: a look at shanghai, covid cases stopped 20,000 for the first time in the chinese president is facing one of his is crises since taking office, growing public frustration over shortages of food. let's bring out stephen engle. how far is shanghai going to contain the operate, and how close to breaking our the people? >> august the chinese
authorities are sticking to their zero covid dynamic clearing strategy, essentially isolating every positive case, and what we are seeing in shanghai now adding to the frustration, the latest count upwards of 150,000 close contacts but into isolation as well. we are getting new numbers for thursday, 21,232 new cases, the majority are asymptomatic cases, but still this is the blueprint and the pathway forward by the party to contain the outbreak in china's biggest city with 25 million people. a city that was spared the first couple of years from operates until now when omicron has taken hold, and there is growing frustration.
they locked on half of the city from march 28 until the 31st in the second half of the city, which should have been wrapped up a couple of days ago by the fifth. because they are finding 20,000 cases a day plus tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands close contacts more people are being put into isolation and that is leading to frustration. people are chanting from the windows chanting slogans such as we want freedom, we want to eat. basic necessities are in short supply as this lockdown continues with no end in sight. shery: what is the situation right now in shanghai's ports? >> shanghai is china's largest board. across the bay is the third biggest board. some years it is the number one
global port for container or cargo. with the lockdown in shanghai proper it is restricting people's movements and trucks and truckers, there is a shortage of them to go into the board because china relies on its feeder system. if there are fewer trucks and fewer truckers that will have a spillover and a chain reaction back to the ships who have to wait off the coast to get into the port. one shipper estimates congestion is grid locking 10% of the global container ship fleet. the longer this lockdown continues the worst that is going to get. shery: our chief north asian correspondent stephen engle. global businesses are major automakers, chipmakers and big tech are among those disrupted by the lockdown. let's discuss implications and exposure for these companies.
gene, always good having you with us. we have heard perhaps because of this covid zero policy, some of these big industrial companies would not suffer as much as they did during previous lockdown's. what are you seeing? >> it is not as bad as previous lockdown's but it is something of growing concern. i think we should assume this will be a one month lockdown. when we look back at previous lockdown's they have been longer than that. they could go from 3 to 6 weeks, so we are optimistic this is going to be less than the worst that we have seen but still something that is material and something investors should be taking due note of and started to reflect that within their models about how this will
impact production and sales in the june quarter. shery: we know that tesla as a factory in shanghai but other big multinationals operate all over china as well. are we going to see more shift away from china given what is happening right now? >> one of the surprising pieces to give you some sense about the impact, in terms of tesla, it will be a 2% negative impact to deliveries, 34,000 vehicles will likely be lost. it is not just about getting production running, it is about the whole supply chain. in terms of apple, one of the surprising pieces we have seen is that leadtimes where we can measure product availability, leave times have been improving. the average times with an
average of six days, 16 days in january. apple surprisingly it seems to be navigating this. i still of the question about where china fits into this equation, the bigger picture, that is where we are going with this. the topic is ultimately you will see diversification away from that. they are doing assembly in malaysia, vietnam, and i think you are going to continue to see that. it takes a lot to change out apple produces its products. even with those changes and the massive investment they will be making in the u.s., you will still see five years were not 70% plus of apple's products being assembled in china. haidi: is there a concern about water economic slowdowns, the risk of a refresh in --
recession and how that is going to wait on the demand side? >> there is, and if you look at the inversion of the yield curve, it is accurately predicted recessions in seven of the last nine recessions, so it is a good indicator. i think you need to factor this in. all indications are the march quarter results are going to be strong. i suspect you will see a tone of caution for many ceos as they are talking about their outlook just because of this potential, and to pull it all the way ford, my sense is we are going to see recession because i think that the yield curve is something that is notable, and when are we actually going to see it in the numbers, it is probably going to come in september, december quarters.
by that time the market will start to move higher on what will be a decline in numbers. the answer to your question is it will have an impact. if you want to zero in on apple, what is the impact of a recession? apple historically as grown recessions at least in the last 20 years, but you see a slowing of its growth. i suspect next year the street is looking for 6% revenue growth. if there was a recession my guess is it would be 1%, 2% growth. every company if there is a recession, even a company as strong as apple will see a strong impact. haidi: elon musk has had a pretty busy week, not a lot of it is had to do with tesla. his other interests and distractions, does this perhaps
change review want tesla? >> no, i think he is having fun with this. we know how many things he is going on. his central role with tesla is a marketing piece, and that is what he is doing today. he will be speaking in a couple of hours, kanye west will be performing. a typical market company spends 10%. his involvement with twitter is a sideshow, i do not think it changes especially around tesla, and ultimately what matters is the car. in a march quarter they grew deliveries. the average of major automakers was down 17%. it is a consistent gap they have
had over the past couple of years. the company is doing well even with elon spreading his time between neuro-link and spacex. shery: always good talking to you. coming up next, singapore setting aside hundreds of millions of dollars for the tourism sector as covid restrictions ease. we will be speaking to the chief executive of the tourism board next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> this is daybreak: asia. i am su keenan. the yuan general assembly is voted to -- russia from the human rights council of let's conduct in ukraine. it was backed by 93 nations and deposed by 24. other countries abstained saying they first want an investigation into alleged atrocities. -- as recorded undershooting marking the fourth israeli attack.
the concern has been high among israeli officials that violence could escalate as muslims mark the holy month of ramadan, jews prepare for passover and christians mark easter. muller says -- last month the fomc raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, favoring a much bigger half-point increase. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: singapore is getting back into the business of tourists. the government has set aside $650 million to support tourism
recovery. haslinda amin is standing by. >> tourism is important to singapore's economy. with the reopening it is optimistic tourism will recover strongly in the next few years. let's get perspective from keith tan. good to have you with us, right -- light at the end of the tunnel. the question is how strong will this recovery be? 19 million pre-pandemic, and how quickly will be get there? >> our said was an area is that we will take a few more years to get back to pre-covid levels of tourism. major markets like china, japan
are relatively closed. even for markets that are open there is a certain degree of caution amongst travelers. we do not expect a strong recovery over the next one or two years. we expect tourism to recover from pre-covid levels. >> give us a sense of what you were expecting for the year end for 2023? >> it is too early to make any predictions so far, but we have seen very encouraging numbers from the first three months of the year. 57,000 in january, 67,000 in february and 120,000 in march and this is before we announced a full reopening of our borders and the removal of our vaccine framework. i am confident demand will come back strongly and this will be a boost to our aviation and tourism sectors.
haslinda: you talked about china, and how big of a hit you getting from china? given that it remains shut, what kind of it? are you looking at? >> we know we have to discount china for many forecast for 2022 and a very moderate number even at best in 2023, so that is a major impact on us, and therefore we are pushing as hard as we can to grow arrivals and travel from regional markets here in southeast asia but also australia, india. these were important markets to us and we have to double down on our efforts to bring visitors back, including visitors who would have gone to china, who would have gone to japan previously or maybe europe. now may be more cautious to travel to europe, japan, can
they come to singapore? haslinda: how about bringing back laborers in the tourism industry because we continue to hear about shortages. when will you start to focus on this? >> this is a major preoccupation for us. you see strong, positive signals on the demand side. through the pandemic the tourism sector lost about one third of its workforce. many were foreign workers who went back to their own countries in the region into china, and some of them will not come back. we are doubling our efforts to bring locals into the tourism sector. now that we have reopened our borders to most countries, including important source countries such as malaysia, we want to build back that pipeline of workers supporting the tourism sector. haidi: f1 is always a big
highlight and a great time to be in singapore. are there going to be live concerts and events back this year? >> we are planning as much as we can for an event that looks as much like 2019. that is our intention. we are still working through the details with our colleagues from other government agencies, but the central scenario is that things will be like almost as if they are back to normal. the early signs from companies, corporates are very encouraging. i expect to see a packed, vibrant event here in singapore later this year. haslinda: you talk about efforts to get national travel to the city. there are plans for snowboarding here in tropical lion city.
surely do need to do more than that to attract those doris. >> -- tourists. >> are strategies have two main focuses. let's make it as easy as possible for people to come to singapore, so removing requirements, regulations, making requirements is easy to follow as possible. that is number one. those who have traveled overseas, you know that it gets challenging having to navigate the different requirements. make it as easy as possible for travelers to come into singapore. number two, we had to give them a reason to come to singapore. that hinges on having a vibrant calendar of events, both business and leisure events like f1, but there are many other events in the pipeline. i mentioned avatar, the
experience and date rich calendar of nice business events happening this year. that is one part of the reason we want people to come to singapore. the hardware, the attractions, the hotels, and we have not been sitting still over the last two years refreshing themselves, creating new products and experiences including the possibility of snowboarding. haslinda: cruise to know where was -- nowhere was the focus of the crew sector. what is the outlook for the cruise industry, when will we get to pre-pandemic? it was important in terms of tourism receipts. >> many singaporeans have enjoyed cruises, including
myself. we see from other countries cruise demand has come back with a vengeance, and we expect the same patterns here in singapore as well. we are now looking very closely to expand the number of crews lines -- cruise lines coming to singapore. there is strong interest. at the same time we are working with our regional partners, thailand, indonesia, malaysia so we can reopen cruises to somewhere later this year. haidi: the chief executive keith tan there, we appreciate you joining us. watch us live and catch up on past interviews, the interactive tv function at tv . dive into any securities or bloomberg functions we talk about. join us on the conversation as
now from hong kong. we keep hearing from local media that a rrr cut could be coming in the next quarter. in the meantime we see the recovery rally start to stumble. >> as you say we have seen this fast and furious rally across assets, stocks and bonds or bonds rallying hard over the past three weeks since we saw a flurry of statements from trent's -- china's statements from top authorities. there is been no plan to resurrect the housing market so far, and we are seeing some of those doubts start to creep in after three weeks of this incredible rally based on the hopes and dreams of traders more than anything concrete so far. shery: exactly, so what sort of concrete action to be need to see in order to restore faith in the sector? >> i think ultimately it people
want to see is a sign of improvement in sales. the sales have fallen since july, and eight month stretch, we are waiting to see if they fall again for march but preliminary data suggest that they are. sales have been abysmal, and until we start to see that fundamental financing china -- general open up for developers, we see companies boosted in the property market, all across the cities of china, it is going to be hard to see any kind of long-term confidence being restored in the market. shery: our china credit editor, and as we head toward the open, take a look at these stocks, tencent shutting down its game streaming service. beijing hiring a u.s. burst -- based firm as its international
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