tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg April 12, 2022 10:00am-11:00am EDT
developing story right here in new york city. a subway station in brooklyn has multiple reports of people injured inside. several people were inside and shot and wounded. we also understand from the latest headlines said there are no active explosives at that subway station. we are not getting the u.s. transportation secretary saying that the department of transportation is monitoring those shootings and ready to help. we are just taking the headlines as they come. guy: absolutely. out of an abundance of caution, of course, the transport authority have put all the lines that go through the 30 six st station on hold. that is the d line, the end line, and the our line. -- the n line and the r line. try to get an update of
situations like this is incredibly difficult. obviously, we are watching the story develop and try to understand what is happening and he has been affected. and the cost of -- the possible causes behind it. kailey: let's try to get to more clarity now on exactly what our understanding is at this time. shelly banjo, our new york city team, is joining us now. what are we learning? >> we actually have someone down at the scene right now. there is a lot of unorganized chaos right now as people try to figure out what to do. they're trying to get pedestrians and people away from the front -- from the subway station and transit station. currently, the nypd and fdny are trying to figure out these two incidents, whether or not the shootings and un-detonated devices are related or not. they said it is going to be at least an hour until there is some sort of press conference,
where they will be able to tell what is going on. the mayor of new york, eric adams, currently has covid and is in isolation. he is not physically going to be there. that is adding a little bit more of confusion into the mix this morning. guy: incidents like this, the first question that always gets asked is, is this terrorism? doing no anything in terms of the causes or potential motive? >> there is no indication yet of anything like that. the nypd and fdny are very well trained on terrorism issues. that is probably the first question they are all going to ask. there is no indication at all yet that this is terrorism. with that said, the transit authorities are going to be looking up and down the new york city subway to check all the other stations as well. we are seeing increased police presence at other stations with
nothing confirmed yet along those lines. kailey: just of put this in a broader context, already before this moorings events, there had been an uptick in violent crime in new york city. how does this just exacerbate the fear of that starting to develop around the transit system in particular? >> this is possibly the worst thing that could happen to the transit system at the moment. while overall crime is down two decades lowe's for new york city, violent crime, transit crime, high-profile crime you see headlines on, is up. it has been since the beginning of the pandemic and has continued through the first few months of mayor adams' administration. he was elected specifically on the promise of you can down crime. this is something on everybody's mind but not more than the perception as the reality. guy: for the global audience, can you give us some contest -- context here?
is this a busy station, busy hub? how does this affect the overall transport network? >> this is very far from the and had an office district, very far from our bloomberg headquarters where we are speaking from. it is on the south side of brooklyn, not far from port terminal, across from the southern end of prospect park. this is typically blue-collar workers that live in this neighborhood, families who live in this neighborhood who get on to the station to get to work or school. it is not a huge, heavy, busy thoroughfare. it is not like the manhattan subway stations. they are buckling. they are busy and typically pack. kailey: of course, as you said, this was during commuting hours. this was people going back to the office, which is something people struggled with two the past couple of years, bringing people back into the city center
and offices, instead of working from home. where's the nta stand right now in terms of reinforcement? i just on the operation side, but also putting more safety officials in stations? >> they are still running at about 50%. they have not recovered from pre-pandemic. a more in more people are taking the subway and it feels taxed usually around commuting time, it is still not there yet. crime is one of the biggest reasons why, that you hear from people time and time again, i still do not feel safe to ride this was system. both the mayor and governor of new york have been putting resources, adding police officers the subway systems cannot not just combat the actual crime, but also to combat the perception of crime on the subway systems. guy: we will leave it there. we will be back to you later in the program. shelly banjo updating us on the latest. we will continue to update you
on develop mensa as they happen. as shelly said, it chaotic scene at the moment. we may get some briefings within the next couple of hours. of course, we will continue to keep you updated as to what we find out. let's turn back now to our other major story that we have been following here at bloomberg. that is the cpi data. we are now discussing the numbers with the bloomberg marketing editor and national policy correspondent. mike, let's talk about the numbers. i'm sure the administration is going to focus on the numbers that came down. what other areas should we be looking at? >> it depends on what your perspective is. from the white house and the american public, the fact that we have the fastest inflation, a .5%, since 1982, it is going be bad news. within the details are some encouraging signs. the goods price inflation fell during the month. that was largely due to used
cars. that was one of the transitory factors that did not actually hold up. almost a 4% decline. that pushed up goods prices. services prices did rise, but much of that was airfares, as people finally return to flying now that the pandemic has started to receive. airfares are probably not going to keep going up throughout the year, which gives you the encouraging hope that maybe we have peaked now. inflation is still going to be high for some months to come, maybe for some years. but it isn't going to be going up any further. kailey: maybe we have peaked. christine, does that exclude my equities are up and buying your it's -- and bond yields are down? >> absolutely. i think there was so much momentum into the move of higher yields that a lot did to stop in its track. to the question of whether this
reverses the entire inflation narrative and the potential response to it, i don't think we are even close to a peak in that sense. the fed has been very emphatic about its plan for multiple rate hikes, potentially several 50 base point rate hikes. indeed, their plan for the balance sheet as well. one number that comes today slightly underestimate probably isn't going to reverse that process. guy: mike, let's pick up on that. is that going to have any effects on the fair? michael: no effect on the main meeting. the fed has pre-much telegraphed what is going to do, a 50 point rise. some say they count 25 of that coming from balance sheet, if they announce that. but the fed will be raising interest rates probably by 50 basis points in may and may be even again inching. the question is what happens after that. no one really knows. the answer to that question may be in the kremlin, depend on how
long the war goes on in the ukraine. and how high energy prices stay. we have seen gasoline prices come down a little bit during this last month. if they continue to fall, we made see some relief, and terms of overall inflation, and people may think the fed will have to do less. kailey: as we talk about higher gasoline prices, they are still quite elevated. at what point do we start have a conversation about broader demand and destruction in the face of these higher prices consumers are seeing? do the numbers we saw today indicate that may not take shape michael: one problem that you have is that this leads to lower prices. in this case, we don't know what the impact is going to be definitively because a lot of the excess pricing is out of anyone's control, other than maybe vladimir putin. we are going to have problems
with food throughout the year because of the fact that so much is being taken out of the market from ukraine and russia. there is still the reopening issues out there. airfares are being one of them. it is hard to know exactly how long this lasts and how long it goes, and whether or not americans do pullback. they'd used to have a lot of money in savings, according to the latest statistics from all of the federal transfer payments. they could keep spending if they want to. guy: just update our audience, you are looking at a live shot from sunset park in brooklyn. we will continue to update you on develop men's there as we get more details as to what is happening. let's get back to the cpi question. do we have any idea of where ultimately inflation will try to back down to? >> i think it does give you clues a little bit into what was driving the move in prices this whole time. i think there will be some
relief over the fact that if some of these prices prove a little bit stickier in the last few months starting to come down now. that is certainly good news for consumers. overall, i think that cost of goods and services still seems to be higher. this is really what has gotten the fed and a lot of other people globally, these elements going into this, are in danger or potentially behind the curve, and they have to respond to this. kailey: thank you both so much for joining us on this inflation day in america. meanwhile, we are continuing to monitor the developing story involving multiple injuries at a subway station in sunset park, brooklyn. we understand that multiple people were shot and wounded this morning around 8:30 a.m. eastern time and there was a possible explosion inside the subway station as well. the nypd and fdny are still on
we will continue to keep you updated. this took place at roughly a: 30 a.m. this morning. a number of lines have been closed as a result. we understand that there is an increased police presence in a number of stations in the new york area. as i say, we will continue to keep you updated as we get more information and the scene develops in brooklyn. let's get back and talk a little more about the data i want to bring your attention to today. the cpi data out for the united states, coming through the headline number 8.5 percent. that core number is a little bit better than maybe some people had anticipated and certainly a little bit of good news maybe for the administration. what may be surprising is the extent we've seen today and the records we have seen. stocks are up.
yields are lower. with the director of portfolio strategy to give us her sense of what is happening here. you think we're getting near to the peak of inflation and, if so, what does that mean for investors? >> i think we're are getting closer to the peak. i think the next few months will be a bit dicey. i don't want to take one month and consider that a trend. i would like to see this go on over several months, where you are truly seeing those goods priced inflations coming down. that is something the fed referenced last year and i think that is something where you will see substantial improvements in the second half of this year. i don't think it really changes federal reserve opinion on what they're going to do. they are going to need to be aggressive over the next cupping meetings -- coming meetings, addressing the balance sheet as well. kailey: obviously, the market is already anticipating aggressive markets -- action from the >>
reserve. >>i think in certain areas of the bond market, even select areas of the u.s. equity market, these areas have been significantly underperforming and the large-cap space as well. these areas, i do think have really priced in the worst-case scenario. i think certain areas of the bond market may be pressing that in. we are not ready to jump into anything and the bond market yet because there is still a lot of volatility around what may happen in the coming months. again, this will take one month and we will be happy about that core number coming down, but let's see this continues on morbid trend before we suggest more of something in the bond market. we still do think the fed is going to have to be aggressive in coming meetings. guy: we have to think of america fund manager survey out overnight. turning significantly more cautious. in one that really stands out is
the disconnect between global growth is staggering. what do you make of where we are in terms of market right now? what do you think of valuations? >> i think there is still certain areas that are overvalued. i think you'll find that for some time as we start to figure out where we are from an inflation and interest rate environment. i think you're still going to find volatility continue, especially those expensive, high pe types of stocks. there are other areas of the market that are completely unloved. i think it is good time to take a look at some of those. remember, we think economic growth can still withstand this aggressive fed tightening cycle. there are so many factors underlying the economy that are strong. in that event, you want to own equities over bonds. when you look at the return expectations for bonds, the global equities our way to be. you have to look at what has
been most loved right now. kailey: let's go to earnings season, which kicks off in earnest with jp morgan tomorrow. what are our expectations, in terms of margin retention, if not expansion? >> i think companies have proven they are able to pass on some of these higher input costs. i think margins can stay pretty stable here. it will be the second half of this year when we start to look at the real potential for some margin contraction. that is because i don't how much longer, with the higher food and energy prices, and you are seeing some of the manned already with volatile structures, that they will pass that on to consumers. guy: where are we in the cycle right now? we are probably late cycle, but how much more is it going to run? >> i think there are still plenty of room for the cycle to run. if we look at a lot of different recession indicators, and there are not many of them right now that are really screaming to us a lot of people referenced the
yield curve last week in the week before. that quickly corrected itself. now, we have a positive yield curve. we have very improving labor markets. i think these are good for the economic cycle to continue. i think we are in the midst of this pivot from the fed and what they need to do to slow down the pace we came out of this recession and pandemic. remember, we saw the fastest recovery and economic growth than we have ever seen in history. the fed needs to slow that down. i think there's still plenty of room for the cycle to run. kailey: we have to leave it there. cio at britain's capital advisors. -- vernon's -- verndence. with an active investigation in new york going right now. the nypd and the fire department are there. we understand that there may have been an explosion, however
there are no active explosives according to authorities there at the station. we will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as they come. this is disrupting transit in new york city today. several lines are disrupted in brooklyn and parts of manhattan as well. stay with us for further updates. this is bloomberg.
kailey: investigators from the new york police department and new york fire department are on the scene in sentence park, brooklyn at the 30 -- at the 36th street subway station. they witnessed multiple shootings early this morning. multiple people or shot and there was a potential explosion. investigators found no active
explosive devices at this time at the scene of that station. we continue to monitor for updates. let's get the reaction now from washington, d.c. anne-marie is joining us from washington. what have we heard from ministries in the district and administration? annmarie: we haven't yet heard from the white house, but we have heard from the transportation secretary taking to twitter, saying they are closely monitoring the development of the sharking is from brooklyn. he said they are ready to help the mta, the people of new york in any way they can. we heard from the 16th congressional representative of new york, saying that he would like to live in a world were shootings on subways, in schools, and on our streets would be considered unfathomable. as interesting as it comes a day after the president held an event talking about gun violence, ghost guns, and how we want to move along and go after these ghost guns, these guns you can create at home on your own.
the administration is under a lot of pressure for the amount of gun violence under the pandemic. guy: let me update everybody on what we are learning. the white house says it is in contact with the new york mayor on the subway shooting. we have a live shot coming from brooklyn. we understand the president has been briefed on the new york city subway shooting. that is all we have at the moment. anne-marie, in terms of what this is likely to do to that policy of may be leaning harder and on the gun crime issue, will this change the way he approaches it? this is obviously something that will garner an awful lot of headlines. how much support can the president generate, in terms of getting policies enacted in the near-term to maybe lean in on this problem? annmarie: we should say two
things. number one, there's a lot we need to know about what happened at the subway station in brooklyn. number two, every time there has been some of these very devastating gun violence attacks in america, that has always prompted legislators, officials to come out and push for more to be done. the issue is that it always then comes back to legislation in congress. that is, of course, where it gets tricky. you really have a big partisan divide. guy: joining us from washington, thank you very much indeed. we continue to monitor the scene in brooklyn. we will continue to keep you updated on on developments. this is bloomberg.
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shot of the scene in sunset park, brooklyn were multiple people were hurt in that subway station in the neighborhood. the fire department, the bureau of tobacco, alcohol and firearms are on the scene. several people were shot and wounded as numerous on detonated devices were discovered inside the subway station. let's go to shelley who is joining us. what are we learning about two hours after the first report of this incident? >> there are still a lot of unanswered questions about what's going on. we are learning more about the identity of the suspect they have been looking into but in general we are waiting for the fire department of new york, the mayor's office to tell us what they know so far. we know the subway, the transit system is not focusing just on that station but citywide and to
make sure nothing else is going on around the transit system. we're still waiting for any kind of confirmation that any of the shootings and mob -- and if the on identified are linked. there are no active devices the nypd was able to find. from that perspective it's a quiet scene. but there are many -- there's a mob of people out at that subway station outside in brooklyn to try and figure out what is happening. guy: give us some context here, how big a station is this question park -- is this? i want to get a scale of what's happening underground right now. below ground, what are we looking at? shelly: we have millions of people who ride the new york
subway station every day, is the busiest transit system in the city. this was not a huge hub like the times square station or where bloomberg's headquarters are in midtown east, this is a busy morning commute area in brooklyn. these are folks getting on the train to go to school, to go to work, they are packed trains per you are standing salt -- shoulder to shoulder. the subway system running at about 60% capacity, you are still standing shoulder to shoulder. guy: thank you very much indeed for keeping us updated. we will continue to keep you updated on any developments as they happen. we understand the president has been briefed and at -- is in contact with the mayor. let's join them. jared, you are in -- you are a new yorker.
and message from the white house? >> thank you for bringing your viewers up to speed on this, the president has been briefed on the latest developments, are white house senior staff is in touch with the mayor and the nypd and the goal is to see if we can provide any assistance at this point. that is the understanding, of the readout i have, obviously our hearts are with the people of new york. we are gathering facts and don't want to get ahead of the situation beyond that. guy: today's cpi number. the headline figure 8.5% year on year, is this the peak of inflation. does it come down from here? >> let's drill down onto the hood.
1.2% is the monthly rate which helps us get a bit more granular insight on which going -- on what is going on month over month. part of that increase is due to energy cost, 63% of that is due to gas alone. in other words, this is a cpi print with the fingerprints of putin's unprovoked invasion of ukraine, its impact on commodity prices. and what's very important for viewers to understand here is this president is dispatching to do everything he can to help ease energy price pressures, most notably a very aggressive, historically significant release of barrels of oil from the strategic reserve and not just here but in coordination with allies. >> we are also expecting the president to take action on the amount of ethanol that can be used in gasoline as well.
tapping of the spr and encouraging of opec-plus for more oil, action on ethanol, is the administration reaching the limit of what it's able to do to rein in inflation? jared: everything is on the table and i'm glad you brought up the ethanol 15 announcement coming later today. this is something that i think according to widespread analysis could reduce the price at the pump by about $.10 a gallon. we also know that upon the release of the throw barrels that the price of oil has come down about 10%, we seen $.11 per gallon decline in retail gas prices at the pump. this remains a global commodity -- price. i'm not seeing the release of the 15 announcements are the
only ones but they are to push in the right direction. guy: history does not have a particularly good track record of showing trying to control prices works. is the white house trying to control prices here and what do you think your chances of success are? jared: that's a totally fair question. we are not trying to control prices. you can see this in so many of our different policy agenda items with her is near, or long-term, is to bring up the economy supply to better align with the economy demands. this inflation is very simply and clearly understood as extremely strong demand in labor and product markets hitting inadequate supply. whether you're looking at the president's agenda to reduce the cost of prescription drugs, reduce the cost of child or elder care.
in every case, we are doing all that we can to better realign supply and demand. from my perspective as a macro economist's been tracking these developments for more decades than i would want to share with you, one of the key variables as labor supply and there we have seen some quite positive movement. i think it goes underreported. the labor force participation rate, overall, or for prime age workers, is going faster and this expansion than any of the past five expansions. kailey: when we are talking about the realignment of supply and demand, the administration pointed to the federal reserve and its role in raining and demand through interest rate hikes. is the administration happy to see potentially higher unemployment rate and slower growth if it does indeed pouring down inflation pressure and
higher prices the american people are facing? >> we've been touting how low the unemployment rate is and we are a tick above where we were pre-pandemic and how quickly we've gotten here thanks in part to the america rescue plan which by putting checks in pockets has helped us get to this tight labor market. that something we consider an absolute valuable asset to working americans. if you look at the forecasts. to goldman sachs, they have penciled in all the rate hikes and they have the unemployment rate, 3.54 3.6 by the end of the year. the soft landing scenario we are in, inflation comes down. better one of numeral -- that is
one of numerous scenarios. guy: elevation at the year end. where do you think inflation will settle here? will the white house be comfortable with and above 2% inflation rate, do you think the american people would be comfortable with that rate? jared: let's talk about the forecast for the inflation in the two to three range now has it the three to four range. i think the key perspective from the american people is less what is the actual percentage increase and are they getting some easement at the, in the grocery store, when they go out to the restaurants, services, goods. every single forecast i've seen does show inflation letting up some for the end of the year. not to the level we need to see it and we will not relax until
these price pressures ease and american households don't have to worry about inflation going forward, but the fact this is the first derivative story. we have to see the sandwich inflation is rising. that should be decelerating by the end of the year according to these forecasts and i believe that will be a positive development. we have to do everything we can to make sure it happens. kailey: the price pressures domestically are also influenced by what's happening outside of the country's borders. we've alluded to the impact the war in ukraine has had. how much pain is the biden administration willing to face in order to retaliate against russia? jared: the president has consistently framed this is doing everything we can to insulate the american public as best we can from the impact of the sanctioning and he has also
been extremely forthright about how that cannot be completely accomplished and there will be commodity price issues. today's cpi is a perfect example. they have to weigh that against how much action we are taking. i have never been part of a white house that is tried to do more to help on the economy supply side. our efforts in the ports, our efforts in trucking to help move around the country more efficiently. we talk about the release and there's a long adjustment to help lower costs that families face. childcare, eldercare, a cost of these are parts of our agenda and we will work on them until we see this challenge mitigate for american households. guy: do you think american households will pay higher
energy bills? some of that will ultimately help europe weather the storm. do you think the american people will be ok with that? certainly we are seeing significant more cargoes crossing the atlantic. we see the gas prices starting to go up pretty sharply right now. do you think the american people will be ok with that? >> the american people have been clear in pulling that they very much support our initiative to help do everything we can to underline resource flow to president putin who has committed alleged war crimes and prosecuting an unprovoked war at tremendous cost to the globe and i'm not even thinking about economics, i'm thinking of the human cost. the american people understand the importance of unifying with our allies against this unprovoked aggression. at the same time, i want to come
back to some of the measures the president has taken. if you follow this you know the president is talking about one million barrels a day for six months, that's 180 million barrels of oil and it is and will continue to make a difference. what people might not know is through our partners who also have strategic reserves, that 180 is up to 240 million barrels of oil and that is the kind of unity that this president is helping to bring to the table and its directly targeted at helping ease price pressures facing working americans. guy: we have -- kailey: we have to leave it there, but thank you very much for your time. we continue to monitor the situation at the 36th street son -- subway station in sunset park, brooklyn where we understand multiple people were shot and several explosive
devices were found. no active devices have been found at the scene according to the investigators. we are hearing from the department of education, all public schools near that shooting are in a shelter-in-place scenario which requires students to remain inside the building. this is also affecting the morning commute for those trains that run in brooklyn and some parts of manhattan. we understand the president is aware and the white house is offering any assistance needed to mayor adams and the police commissioner here. stay with us for continued updates. this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪
kailey: we continue to monitor the scene at sunset park brooklyn outside the 36th street subway station where we understand multiple people were shot and wounded. we continue to monitor this development there and we will bring you news as we get it. we focus on the market as well. we start to find out how wall street biggest banks did tomorrow when jp morgan kicks things off fall by, morgan stanley and wells fargo. let's bring in the global head of banks diversified finance research for more. let's set the scene of where we are into these reports. jp morgan reporting results in january, the bank affects is down 19%. we are headed into earnings from a very beat up place for some of these financials. will some reports help them or hurt them? >> it will depend on who we are
talking about. i do have to say i am in line with the group. we were overweight in january so we did bring down a recommendation. really it's a function of the headwinds and tailwinds coming at them fast and furious. i would say there's a possibility for relief rally in certain names if we get a positive, particularly in trading. on the other hand we do have an outlook here for an expectation that credit should be deteriorating as inflation is running so hot. and that messaging we think is not in the stocks or in most of the estimates. guy: let's separate the pack. winners and losers. betsy: as we see it, the two stocks in particular that we are long going into the quarter, wells fargo and american
express, a very different stocks, but we say that because wells fargo is the most rate sensitive we cover and we have significant amount for expense to come out -- come down and some nice opportunity for buybacks to stay high. there's multiple ways to win. they are also very rate sensitive. american express is a similar story per your still benefiting from pnd and their credit loss outlook is really good. kailey: you talk about the rate sensitivity. higher rates will help them when it comes to net interest income. so those that lend a lot maybe more so. what about investment banking focus? the likes of goldman sachs, morgan stanley, we see volatility coming in and
potentially a decline in market activity as well. betsy: i can speak to goldman obviously. around goldman sachs or jpm, the investment banks recover, of this a couple of things going on. investment banking revenue is down a lot year on year, extraordinarily low levels and also high-yield issuance has come back quite meaningfully in the corridor. i think it is well known. we all follow the data, it's expected by the street. trading is the whole back fixed income i'm estimating a decline year-over-year for trading. this is where we could be surprised. fixed income, of the volatility and volume are so high, could it end up giving us a positive surprise we are not looking for.
guy: mixed message coming out of these trading debts and what's going on here. talk to us about what's can i happen with provisioning and buybacks. betsy: on the provisioning side we have slightly higher levels of provisioning then consensus does. part of the reason is running our numbers ahead of the quarter i am thinking we have got at that point we had a slight inversion in the curve, we have the war going on, inflation high. to me the bear case has to be rising. i would think management teams are going to have a slightly more conservative outlook on credit which is why we brought up our provision numbers. i've also gotten some questions on how russia plays into that because companies with russian exposure will need to take a market of sorts for the impact
there. i don't think that will come through provision line, needless to say russia will also -- the exit from russia will also drive impacting earnings. guy: always great to talk to you on the eve of such an important day. always appreciate your time, thank you so much. betsy, morgan stanley global head of finance research, thank you very much indeed. we will continue to bring you updates as we get them in brooklyn. this is bloomberg. ♪
we continue to monitor the developments. public school students in the area are shelter-in-place required to stay inside while in invest -- while lines have been disrupted. we understand there are no active explosive devices on the scene at the moment. we are still looking for answers as to what exactly went on this morning. guy: absolutely. the president has been briefed and is in contact with the governor and the mayor. we are at some point i suspect going to get a briefing. when that happens we will update you on the details and bring it to you live. we do not know when it's going to be, possibly in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
big following cpi data. the count on to the closing europe starts now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel. >> quick update on the price action in europe as we count you down to the close of the equity session. down by around half of 1%. in the u.s., equities big post that cpi data. particularly here in europe which is interesting for the italian five year, a 1.669 as you can see we have you the yield moving lower. really quite significantly. brent crude on the way as well.