tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg April 12, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
>> a very good morning and welcome to daybreak austria. i'm heidi strauss in sydney where we are counting down to sydney's major market open. >> good evening from new york, i'm shery ahn. the u.s. inflation index jumped the most since 1981, reinforcing pressure on the fed to hike rates by 50 basis points next month. haidi: u.s. stocks dipped with the surgeon oil stoping inflation concerns.
the bti tops $100 as traders wage war in ukraine. shery: and injuring at least 16 people in the new york subway attack, we expect an nypd update soon and we will bring it to you live. for now, this is the picture across wall street where we see u.s. futures rebounding slightly after the s&p 500 lost ground for a third consecutive session. we have seen some gains today given the core cpi missed expectations by a little bit. it it eased a little bit of concern about inflationary pressure. that was really not sustained giving the wti over surge of $100 a barrel. we have seen oil continuing its march higher. in this as we see treasury yields slumping for the first time in a few days. and also below the 2018 high that we saw a touch in the overnight session. that has pressured banks that are under a little bit of
pressure. we are talking about the kp w bank index now, the lowest since july. we have the first quarter earnings season with jp morgan kicking it off. and we are expecting tough comparisons from that year. take a look at what inflation looks like. this was the focus today. we are talking about core cpi missing expectations a little bit. the number was 8.5%, which is a fresh 40 year high. this is the component pieces of the inflation numbers. shelter, food, and those component prices, supply chain disruptions were really felt in those price pressures. but haidi, we saw the core cpi missing a little bit. but it is really to do with what happens next, right? economists see recession risks rising. either you have consumer spending less because prices are more expensive or you have the
fed overreacting. those risks continue to rise right now as we see these prices continue to rally and expectations that the fed will raise rates by 15 basis points next month have now been strengthened. haidi: and we do continue to see the supply side disruptions coming from the war in ukraine. it just not seeing any end in sight, shery. we heard vladimir putin calling these negotiations with ukraine a dead-end. we are seven weeks into the conflict and he is vowing to pursue the invasion, to keep pursuing the war. he says the seven-week offensive is going according to plan. he was speaking at a joint press conference with the belarusian president. we have had no word of progress when it comes to these video link peace talks. ukraine accused russian troops of war crimes, the killing of
unarmed civilians and some of the cities in the north. and we have seen western leaders calling for international investigations of these deaths as further rounds of sanctions. the russian leader dismissing these atrocity and war crime allegations as fake and vowing to continue with this war. so let's get more analysis on a situation. -- on this situation and market reactions. let's bring in berg policy -- bloomberg editor kathleen hays. let's start on inflation. does this fit with the fed narrative and what are the nuances we need to be looking at? kathleen: this is just proof that inflation is very high and it is still rising and the fed is behind the curve. they waited too long to get started because they thought the supply constraints would ease. let's go back over some of the points that shery just went over because i think they are worth
focusing on. 8.5% in march was the highest since december of 1981 when it was 8.9% year-over-year. that is up from february 7 .9%. that is quite a jump. the monthly gain in cpi, 1.2% was the biggest monthly gain since 2005. it is true rising energy prices was one of the big things here and rising food prices. the core cpi did not rise as much as people thought. 6.5% in march instead of 6.6%. a little bit higher than 6.4%. when you break it down a little bit, gasoline prices are up 18%. when you see gasoline prices up that much and you move onto another look at it, you know that will eat away at money that most people could spend on other stuff. i think that is one of the concerns about the relief people might be seeing in the core cpi. maybe people are going to buy
less stuff because they don't have as much money left over. another important part, used car prices, the big reason the core cpi fell so much, they did not rise more. nearly 4%, down two months in a row. that has been a big driver as well. is it a peak? prices are not using. rent. look at housing. that is still an issue. most economists think that is going to come down very quickly. moving on to the fed governor who moved the market just a couple days ago when she said the fed would move, doubling down on the aggressive rate hike path. she also welcomed signs of moderation and core good prices -- in core goods prices. repeat, inflation is too high. it getting it down is the fed's
most important task. they will tighten policy methodically and get to neutral rate expeditiously. it is definitely -- nothing has changed for the fed. it looks like it will take many more numbers and a lot more moderation for the fed to say, hey, maybe we shouldn't be so aggressive. we have to prove it with actions and not just words, but that is what they are ready to do. shery: inflation peak or not? we are seeing inflationary yields coming down. >> look, i think that the bond market was definitely desperate to look for the positive in those numbers. that is why they focused on that core cpi. what the bond market and treasury market has sold very heavily in recent weeks, perhaps it was looking for something to bring down those yields slightly. it as kathleen said, it's a very
basic look beyond that core number to see anything positive in terms of the equity market. we are looking at a little bit of a steady open here in asia. overall, it is still a picture of higher interest rates, higher inflation. we saw the oil price jump back above 100 dollars a barrel. that does not bode well for equities as we know. because the war in ukraine is ongoing. that is going to keep weighing on the markets here. perhaps one thing that might give it a little bit of support, there is an expectation of policy measures in china and the chinese markets turning around since yesterday. that could be something that will underpin equities in asia today. overall, it is not a great
picture. haidi: what about the gains we are seeing in oil? andreea: those gains in oil are on the back of the offputting comments that they are not going to back down from this war. you are also seeing a little bit of easing and restrictions in china. there is an expectation that you will get a little bit deeper demand. there will be some easing and we will get some demand coming through. it is also worth noting that you have the release of reserves from the u.s. and that has eased some of those worries in the oil market. but overall commodity prices, crude, they do remain high. they will continue fanning inflation fears. haidi: andreea there with us and
kathleen hays as well. take a look at asian markets projecting up as we get into the start of trading. looking ahead to the rbn decision where we are expecting a move when it comes to the aussie q. week -- kiwi. we are expecting a more hard cash -- hawkish rbn fed to deliver the fourth rate hike. a half-point move is also potentially in play there for that meeting. most economists see a .25% increase. was he equities a little bit softer ahead of that decision. sidney futures have little change. we expect very little change as we get into the start of cash trading. shery mentioned u.s. stocks falling said the s&p 500 are racing games from earlier -- erasing gains from earlier in the session. let's go to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: the wto -- at the latest
assessment, the war in ukraine could lead to a war of global commerce. they see a number of headwinds to trade growth and food insecurity. the u.s. sees human rights deteriorating globally as russia continues its war in ukraine. an annual report from the state department for 2021 before moscow's invasion highlights russian actions around the donbass agent of ukraine. the secretary of state antony blinken says more atrocities may come as russia pushes to take more of the country. sri lanka has held payments on foreign debt to reserve its dwindling dollars stockpiles. authorities say they will negotiate with creditors and our warning of a possible default. the announcement follows mounting calls for the president and his brother, the prime minister, to resign.
global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: as many as 60 people were injured at a subway station in brooklyn. -- as many as 16 people were injured at a subway station in brooklyn. what have we learned so far? reporter: there were calls made to the fire department that smoke was coming out of a train subway car here at 30 six st and sunset park -- 36th street and sunset park station. a shooter had opened a smoke canister in a train car when it was still underneath the ground. when doors opened, as many as 16 people were injured. the shooter has remained at large. and people shot, five critically injured -- 10 people shot, back critically --five critically
injured. haidi: what do we know about the security situation and how that has changed? reporter: we should start off with simply the location. for the international audience, this particular station is en route to the manhattan area and wall street area where a lot of commuters from residential areas in brooklyn make their way into manhattan. and essentially the financial district. so to see this hub in particular targeted is crucial. the subway station is where you see a lot of lines, a lot of commuters cross into different parts -- [siren] -- also on the scene of the crime, investigators found not only a jammed gun with a high-caliber magazine which is the way that
guns can have more rounds than normal. also gunpowder and fireworks. it is unclear what the motive was area but a calculated attack when it comes to what the evidence shows -- what the motive was. but i calculated attack when it comes to what the evidence shows. shery: you can get more from the nypd news conference later this hour as we are seeing the new york city evening commute beginning with still the shooter at large. you can find expert commentary and analysis from bloomberg contributors. tliv is your function. this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: u.s. stocks finished lower with core data inflation rising slightly less than or cast. as bring in our next guest that says the report was still destructive to consumers and a fed policy mistake has already happened. nancy tengler, ceo and cio, good to have you with us. if the mistake has already happened, how do you mitigate the fallout? nancy: that is the question and a very good one. i think what you do is you pay attention to where we are in the economic cycle.
if the fed lets inflation run too hot for too long, we have a fed that says honestly, we have all the tools to fight inflation. they are adamant that they will navigate a soft landing. i hope that is true. in my 40 years experience, i have only experienced one soft landing in 1994. this is a tricky game. it growth is slowing globally and in the u.s. and we are seeing global pmi rolling over as well as manufacturing pmi in the u.s. and new orders are rolling over. these are highly correlated to corporate earnings, so we expect to see at least in the next quarter or the following, earnings and estimates coming down. wall street is still increasing earnings estimates. we think that will shift. when that happens, you want to be in position to already own the reliable growers because that is where investors will focus. shery: what sectors are those in? nancy: all sectors, but in
particular you can look at health care as safe. materials. we had a defense stocks to our portfolio. energy will continue to grow. and the obvious, which is tech. in the large-cap and mega cap tech names, there are a number of client companies trading at multiples and growing in the high double-digit routines and low 20 -- double-digit teens and low 20's. this is giving long-term investors an opportunity to get these names at lower prices. haidi: what is your preferred way to get exposure to energy? nancy: we have a pretty strong exposure to the upstream segment of energy. and we have been taking some gains in those. oil has already moved quite a bit. but we still want exposure. so we have done that with a name like eog resources which has a
natural gas component and a really robust dividend policy. that is the other space investors should be focusing on. companies growing dividends faster than inflation. there are a lot of them. haidi: i was going to get to your dividend growth strategy. why is that important to focus on? and are you seeing that across different segments as well? nancy: if you look at the dividend growers compared to the non-dividend payers, they have outlook for the last six months. one of the reasons we think the dividend is so important is that it is set by management based on what they think -- it is a portion of what they think is sustainable earnings power. companies can announce and cancel share buyback, but they set the dividend pretty deliberately. you are getting insight into what management thinks. that dividend growth in your portfolio is a hedge against
inflation. as much as stock appreciation is, the dividend growth is also a hedge. and it provides protection. we have always invested in those names. but we are particularly exposed to the higher growth dividend payers rather than just the absolute high-yield stocks. shery: tengler investments ceo and cio, thank you. we are awaiting the nypd press conference that's about to happen anytime. we are expecting to hear from the police commissioner and the new york city mayor eric adams after a shooting happened at the area near sunset park in brooklyn. this happened in the subway. we will get you more details as they become available and we will bring you that presser as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: we are awaiting the nypd's press conference right now. we are live in brooklyn and we will bring that to you after this shooting that happened at a subway station in sunset park, brooklyn. the shooter remains at-large after injuring at least 15 people including 10 with gunshot wounds. we will get you those comments as soon as the press conference starts. here is a quick check of the latest business flash airlines. airbus is defending the decision to keep titanium from russia despite global outrage -- importing titanium from russia despite global outrage. they said not importing the lightweight metal would hurt aerospace manufacturing and not hurt vladimir putin. credit suisse investors are being advised to hold their
directors accountable for mistakes made in the run-up to the collapse of the capital. they recommend investors vote against absolving the banks leadership of legal liability. the vote will be held at credit suisse's agm april 29. haidi: a chinese developer has missed its first payment on the dollar bond and worries about their financial health continue. the coupon was initially due monday. according to the bond offering, circular has a 30 day grace. -- grace period before triggering default. take a look ahead at australia and new zealand. a rate decision published at noon sydney time. they are expected to move forward with more tightening as we get that meeting where they
are likely to raise rates. it will boost to the export of gas and critical minerals. the city's main port is controversially leased to a chinese own company in 2015. and australia's minister of pacific affairs will make a rare trip to the solomon islands to discuss a proposed security pact between the island nation in the chinese government. we will be speaking with a chief economist from new zealand ahead of that rate decision from the rbs shortly coming up at 8:40 p.m. sydney time as we look ahead at today's inflation pressures. of course we are also starting to see the economy with levels of cooling. it take a look at trade when it comes to the aussie as well as the kiwi. the best performer in that g10
space, watching the kiwi dollar and a little bit of strength there. further strengthening as we expect to get yet another tightening move. it will propel another leg higher when it come to the aussie as well as those commodity currencies. and the kiwi seeing a little bit of strength at this point. shery: we are still awaiting the press conference from the nypd. we are live in brooklyn. we are expecting mayor eric adams to come out with police commissioner sewall. anytime now. this as we have a shooting at a subway station at sunset park. 16 injured in that attack, 10 with gunshot wounds. schools near the shooting have entered -- had entered sheltered mode at one point today. we are now seeing the police
seeking a black man with a green vest. the suspect still remains at large. this happened as we have seen reports of smoke in the morning. when the police arrived and first responders arrived, they actually saw several people wounded, not to mention un-detonated devices. a motive is not yet known, but the incident isn't necessarily being investigated as an act of terrorism. at the police department is not necessarily ruling it out. haidi: this is a really fast situation as we expect to hear from the new york city mayor holding a briefing with the police commissioner shortly. we know president biden has been briefed on this latest development regarding the new york city subway shooting according to white house senior staff in touch with mayor adams and the police commissioner to
offer any assistance as needed. we continue to wait or details. we heard earlier reporting that police were able to identify the shooting suspect after finding a credit card at the scene. we are still hearing that the shooter is at large. steen have been injured -- 16 have been injured, 10 suffering gunshot wounds. schools in the area had been put in shelter mode. the nypd says there are no active explosive devices. but we also know according to new york city mayor adams that the city will double law enforcement and uniformed personnel. and they plan to increase technology in the subway including the issue of if there should be metal detectors or more surveillance cameras to capture when these incidents occur. shery: it's a challenging time for the city. it we are looking at life pictures of brooklyn right now outside the subway station.
and we have seen those become really difficult for new york city to bring back people after the pandemic. revive tourism, bring back office workers. subway ridership has been down given the threat of covid. it is still around 60% of pre-pandemic levels. this is causing more anxiety in the city as we see the evening commute also start at this hour. we will get you that presser as it starts. for now, let's talk to another anxiety causing event in the world, the war in ukraine. russian president vladimir putin saying that peace talks with you and are at a dead end. let's bring in political news director jodi schneider. what is the latest on the status of those peace talks right now? jodi: is to me that there is not much disagreement that vladimir putin -- that they are at a dead end, nobody is disagreeing with
that at this point. ukrainian president zelenskyy saying that he wants to ceu countries offer more support and a ban energy imports from russia, taking other steps necessary. we are hearing from all sides in this. there hasn't been any serious new talks. they have not progressed very far at all. putin saying he will continue what he is calling a military operation into ukraine. he doesn't see any reason at this point that they will come back to the bargaining table for any high-level talks anytime soon. haidi: in terms of motivation for the invasion, that has been said. we are hearing from president biden, he says it is a genocide
because it is clearer and clearer that he is trying to wipe out the idea of being ukrainian. we have heard from the french president giving his reasons on why the attack has happened. >> we are seeing president biden pointing out that they are looking into the mind of vladimir putin to look at why he chose this time to do so. there were interesting theories as to why he chose this time to attack you rain. -- ukraine. the pandemic they say made vladimir putin or isolated and caused him to not be thinking of others around the world. and that isolation caused him to take steps like this. the end result, going along with what president biden is saying,
the idea of attacking that kind of way of life, including a western way of life. the comments are striking and we don't seem to be having much disagreement between nato countries into the thinking of why vladimir putin chose to attack at this time. haidi: how did russia do when it came to the human rights report? jodi: not particularly well. the report which is done annually, it happened before the invasion of ukraine. first of all, they said human rights around the globe are showing deterioration and we talked about a number of places and said russia's actions in the donbass region showed a striking level of concern, particularly attacks on civilians.
the state department said it was concerned about what it was seeing their. -- there. president biden has no label this war crimes. -- has now labeled this war crimes. shery: jodi schneider saying that it is clear to president biden that the actions in ukraine are genocide. as get to first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: in other white house news, president biden is considering treasury department veteran michael barr as chief banking advisor. sources say barr was one of the architects of the dodd frank act and has emerged as a leading contender for the post. he has support in the narrowly divided then it. in britain, boris johnson is now the first sitting u.k. prime minister in modern times to have and found guilty of breaking the law. he broke the coronavirus rules
his own government set. johnson maintained he did not know the gatherings breached rules. >> of course the police have found otherwise, and i fully respect the outcome of their investigation. i have paid the fine and i once again offer a full apology. it is my job to get on. vonnie: sri lanka has halted payments on foreign debt to preserve its dwindling dollar stockpiles for essential food and fuel imports. they are said to be seeking to negotiate with creditors. the announcement follows mounting holes for the president and his brother to resign. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake
powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: the u.s. has ordered all nonemergency staff out of shanghai consulate to leave china. this is criticism amid americans . what are we hearing about the motivation behind this decision? i can't imagine if you are an american citizen living in shanghai and seeing diplomatic staff being evacuated, how you might deal. -- feel. >> is a curious move because the u.s. was telling diplomats if they wanted to leave they could. but this is different, ordering them out. they do have to care for their staff. and that might be motivating it. it is definitely triggering quite a bristling response from
china. they see it as a schism of very strict -- as a criticism of very strict over the policy. -- they see it as a criticism of very strict covid policy. haidi: he locked down in shanghai was supposed to be lifted for a few -- the lockdown in shanghai was supposed to be lifted for a few people. and broader restrictions across the country as well? emma: what we are understanding from our reporters is that it is largely still in the state of lockdown. just under 50% of the geographical area of shanghai did have some of those restrictions eased. but apparently, for people in those areas doesn't just exclusively hold residential complexes, a lot of industrial areas as well. apparently for a lot of those people, nothing is open.
there are not logistics or supply chains in place. it is not as though shops are open. so it does feel very much like a blockaded and isolated city for many people. and with the majority of the city still in lockdown and still being subjected to the mass testing that is quite central to shanghai's response, we have seen a tailing off in the cases for 26,000 infections on sunday to just over 22,000 yesterday. whether that persists as we get further into the week is something to watch. what is quite interesting is that most of these cases are already in isolation. china, of course, isolates all post contact. they are really trying to stem infections. that can be assigned that we are looking at a reduction in spread
in the community. haidi: managing editor for global business emma o'brien there. we are awaiting the press conference by the new york police department. we are expecting new york city mayor eric adams. he is isolating after a positive covid test. we are now expecting some more detail about that shooting that happened this morning. there was smoke this morning at 8:30 a.m. and first responders went in. they found undetonated advice -- devices as well. you can see live pictures out in brooklyn as well as a lot of
anxiety right now with an evening commute our happening -- hour happening. we have not seen ridership go back to pre-pandemic levels. and now this is causing more anxiety at the moment. we will try to get more details, of course, from this is conference. -- press conference. we have yet to find details about the weapon used in the attack as well. haidi: as you mentioned, this comes on the back of what has been a difficult couple of years to get through for the city in terms of bringing people back into the city. that vibrancy that new york city is really known for. this obviously has created chaos and fear and sadness as we continue to wait for more details of this event. any kind of explanation when it comes to motivation, an update on what goes on with the search for the shooter.
and there has been difficulty when it comes to the public security and public safety aspect of policymaking in new york city. we have seen attacks on certain demographics. attacks on asian individuals in new york city over the last few months making headlines. it does come off the back of what is a really difficult time for the city. so we will continue to bring you the very latest as we await that press briefing. in the meantime, let's take a look at what is going on with markets. the central bank once again in focus as we get the rbn decision. potentially 50 basis points could be at play here depending on how much the rbs really sees the economy against surging inflation and commodity and food prices. this is what we are seeing when it comes to the picture across yields in asia, australia, and
new zealand. we see a little bit of respite after a relentless selloff in treasuries carrying through to the tuesday session. really threatening to mark this four-decade bull run. we are seeing the 10-year yield when it comes to australia as well as new zealand holding pretty steady. let's bring in our next guest, expecting rbn to hike the rate to 1.5%. sharon is the chief new zealand economist at nzd bank. what are the factors the rbn would be trying to balance today? sharon: pricing near-term downside growth and upside risk. so the housing market has gone backwards. it has fallen in three months. it is a pretty unusual environment to be raising rates.
[indiscernible] haidi: sharon, we seem to be having some technical difficulties hearing you. we will try to get back with sharon zoellner ahead of that decision, chief economist at anz bank. for many central banks around the world, they get these increasing taxation area concerns. short-term -- stagflationary concerns. one of the biggest indicators have signifiers of what would happen with the yield nervous telling us that potentially these recessionary conditions are being wrought alongside these tightening expectations. the fed expected to embark upon
more aggressive than expected tightening as well. this is what we see when it comes to trading in bonds at the moment. we see a little bit of a breather when it comes to the australia new zealand yields. it has been climbing earlier in the session. we had another aggressive selloff in treasuries. we saw the 10-year benchmark rising above 2.8%, the highest since december 2018. all of these bets that the fed will ramp up the tightening to curb inflation. and we have heard from strategist, seeing those yields climbing past 3%. we know it we have seen recently, shery. australia's 10 year yield and three year yield would be paving the pathway ahead for treasury yields. shery: and that really has market implications, right? let's get some of the morning calls ahead of the training day. the inflation and backdrop saying that they favor stocks
over credit. the strategist preferring equities in the u.s. and japan over european peers. while companies have been able to keep markets high despite rising costs, first quarter results are expected to provide a reality check. anticipate long-term bond yields to rise further and yield curves . ubs upgrading the u.s. tech vector to overweight. the strong forward earnings and sales growth relative to the broader gauge. the software services with semiconductor services ametek hardware -- valuation and higher rates are overhangs, but growth and cycle matter more to bs. -- to ubs. and we are still awaiting the press conference from the new york police department. this left steam people injured
include -- 16 people injured including 10 shot. we will be hearing from new york city mayor eric adams and the police commissioner. mayor adams might be beaming into the press conference through a live video feed given he is isolating after a positive covid test. you are looking at live pictures in brooklyn and you can see police officers right now, there is a lot of -- mayor adams has said the police are doubling uniformed personnel given the concerns over the shooter who remains at large at this point. we have not been able to confirm details about the weapon he used. we know when first responders went into the 36th street station, they found several undetonated devices. right now, it is not being
investigated as an act of terrorism. but the police department isn't really really get out. -- ruling it out. we may hear a little bit more tonight. haidi: as we wait for new york city mayor eric adams who is vectored to be beaming into the press conference via live video feed after isolating for a positive covid test. we will be bringing that to u.s. and as that happens. that's get back to some of the other news at hand. we are watching for this tightening to continue. sharon zoellner joins us now. inflation not the only challenge. we have technical difficulties as well. a to have you back with us. just getting back to the balancing act, when you take a look at what is happening across the yield curve, does this are you -- worry you that there is closer risk of a recession to come? sharon: i think the risks are
front and center. in new zealand, in the housing market it is already slowing after three months. it is a pretty unusual environment to be tightening monetary policy. so there has to be some risk of a hard landing. and there is also associations not tightening rates right now. haidi: we also do have the new zealand food prices coming through to us at the moment. and we are seeing for the month of march that food prices rose 0.7% month on month after just a move of 0.1%. and we have seen this really fast acceleration when it comes to food prices. the february number had been
really quite outstanding, the biggest in recent since 2011 year on year. how much is this when it comes to domestic inflation pressures really weighing on the rbnz. and what the government does fiscally. sharon: there is consumer price inflation every year -- everywhere, but new zealand is a big food exporter. we love it when our terms of trade go up above but it does all add to the inflationary picture. the inflation is all important. the tight labor market for example, like many places, they have expectations rising sharply. it is pretty clear this is not the sort of inflation that is going to go away. shery: explain the rationale here when he is trying to get to the path of least regrets that
they talked about in february. sharon: up until very recently, the biggest regret was seen as causing a rise in unemployment in the very near term. but now with inflation where it is and expectations so much higher, pricing going up, the biggest regret would be losing inflation targeting credibility. it is a bit of a 180. it is not that simple. normally we turned down growth risks and consumer confidence is on the floor, for example. they would normally argue for tightening very cautiously. if you are concerned about credibility, you don't have that luxury. shery: how are businesses feeling? sharon: happier than consumers. businesses are holding up all right. there are unemployment tensions
that are still reasonably strong. we are still in the midst of an omicron outbreak here so that is making an impact. the main downside -- wealth impact is really important. shery: we saw that fuel tax cut and public transport fees being lowered. sharon: we estimate that will knock .5% off of peak inflation, but they catch is the government said that it would be put back on again. it will potentially elongate be period -- the period of inflation over the target. it's not clear when they are worried about inflation expectations. the target is two. haidi: what is the impact when
it comes to sentiment both for households in terms of consumer spending and businesses? we have seen various gauges that new zealand businesses are feeling pessimistic about the outlook given the rise in costs. sharon: costs are a biggie. there is a move between expected activity and profitability. of course, passing the costs on is exactly what the bank needs to do. there was a fascinating poll on a public news site asking people what they thought it do and the majority thought they should hike 50. people don't like higher mortgage rates, but they really don't like inflation it seems. shery: sharon zoellner, chief inflation economist area here is a check of the latest business flash headlines read to a lingo
-- headlines. efforts to raise new funding led to questions about the company's accounting. duolingo was working with goldman sachs to raise $200 million. the talks have since stalled. and this of course as we continue to wait for the press conference right now. we are expecting it to happen anytime. this would be from the new york. the expectation is that mayor will be briefing the public the police commissioner after we had the shooting this morning at a subway station in sunset park brooklyn. 16 people were injured. we do not know of a motive just yet. the police are not ruling out the fact it could have been terrorism but it is not
necessarily being investigated as an act of terrorism either. you can see buses around brooklyn, it is the evening commute time. the mayor has said it is safe to ride the subway and called on new yorkers to be vigilant while they commute home. they still have around 16% -- they are around 60% of pre-pandemic levels. this is just tightening. haidi: to bring back that vibrancy that everybody associates with this incredible city. incidents like this setback and attempt.
they have increased presence around train stations to blunt what is seen as an uptick in crime. we have also seen an uptick when it comes to racially motivated crime as well with another -- a number of attacks against asian individuals. this is the 41st mass shooting event in new york city since the start of this pandemic. they defined that as an incident where for more people are involved, including the shooter. there were 17 mass shooting events in new york city last year. there are precautions taking place including who was entering shelter mode. officials have been discouraging
parents from picking up their children they take alternative lines are -- or buses. that's according to the nypd on twitter. they declined to say how long the transit system expects services to be disruption -- disrupted. we see president biden has been briefed on these latest developments. they are in touch with mayor adams and the police commissioner to offer any assistance as well. they talk about getting guns -- shery: two men shut fatally by
one individual traveling to shoot homeless people. we have of course seen in january, the 40-year-old manager. they were shot on the tracks and killed at the subway station. there is a lot of anxiety when it comes to writing the subway at this point. -- riding the subway at this point. ridership at 60% of pre-pandemic levels. we don't have more information on the gunmen. we have heard that he was in a gas mask and a construction best and he set off that smoke canister on the rush-hour subway train in brooklyn and shot 10 people. 16 people have been injured in total. police are seeking this lack man with a green vest as described by the -- black man with a green vest as described by the police. we are expected to press conference to happen at any time
now. it is evening commute time and busy out there. the mayor has told new yorkers to stay vigilant when they go home. but that it is safe to ride the subway at this point. we are expecting that press conference to happen new york city mayor eric adams and the police commissioner. we know mayor adams could be beaming into the press conference through live video feeds as he is isolating after that positive covid test. haidi: let's keep an eye on that situation and bring you that nypd briefing as soon as it gets started. shery mentioned adams is expected to be attending virtually after that covid test came in positive. take a look at markets as we get started trading. the rbnz expected to move forward with another round of tightening.
50 basis points could be at play as well as the rbnz tries to balance a myriad of factors including signs of an economic slowdown. we are seeing bond markets holding pretty steady in this part of the world. 10-year yield as well as new zealand holding pretty steady after rising quite a bit more in the previous part of the session. sidney futures looking like we won't see much change. u.s. stocks had earlier fallen. the s&p 500 erasing gains from earlier on. we have seen a surge in oil prices reigniting inflation concerns as well. and we are seeing a tick-up when it comes to the aussie as well as the kiwi at this point. shery: we watching the bond yields after the 10-year slumped after the highest level in december of 2018. we are seeing the australian 10
year yield falling a little bit. and remember the level it hasn't seen since 2015. we are seeing the kiwi 10 year yield you -- lose a little bit of ground after touching the 2016 high as well. the fed last week signaling a sharp rate hike and the balance sheet reduction all being felt across the bond space. haidi: and we are getting breaking news at the moment. we are getting the south korea march adjusted jobless rate coming in at 2.7%. the estimate was for around 3%. so it remains unchanged at 2.7% from february which shows the resilience in the labor market in south korea. we continue to see inflation